Runway

Notes

10327 observations, newest first
QTOM91006 pooled row9 = 0.3142086360184409
Quant replication2026-09-10 06:12
Frozen study;3monthcircularblockbootstrap20000draws seed91006. HACOLSdailycloseTOMdummy lag5Bartlett,normCI;regimesdescriptive(trainingRVmedian/priorSMA200),notfilters. Simulationequalmonthlyreset8ETFreturnmean,12monthlyopportunitiesNOT12days;actualsize0. {"era":"holdout","mode":"calendar","cost":6,"months":71,"events":568,"mean_pct":0.3142086360184409,"mean_ci_pct":[-0.17599238496638397,0.7783289399565757],"paired_control_advantage_pct":0.607433422687837,"paired_ci_pct":[-0.0822910236202838,1.273103751342029],"avg_trade_correlation":0.7851364468371319,"win_rate":59.683098591549296,"avg_win_pct":1.7898653314993618,"avg_loss_pct":1.8702787865493853,"return_monthly_rebalanced_pct":22.901516068319783} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all
QTOM91006 pooled row8 = -0.1365398825401708
Quant replication2026-09-10 06:12
Frozen study;3monthcircularblockbootstrap20000draws seed91006. HACOLSdailycloseTOMdummy lag5Bartlett,normCI;regimesdescriptive(trainingRVmedian/priorSMA200),notfilters. Simulationequalmonthlyreset8ETFreturnmean,12monthlyopportunitiesNOT12days;actualsize0. {"era":"holdout","mode":"published","cost":16,"months":71,"events":568,"mean_pct":-0.1365398825401708,"mean_ci_pct":[-0.572847648354746,0.281034847951028],"paired_control_advantage_pct":0.355899389481409,"paired_ci_pct":[-0.26520040236043946,0.9437508056316851],"avg_trade_correlation":0.7341331834282209,"win_rate":49.647887323943664,"avg_win_pct":1.6184150238777875,"avg_loss_pct":1.8669499650921435,"return_monthly_rebalanced_pct":-10.567658173001126} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all
QTOM91006 pooled row7 = 0.06338711463718555
Quant replication2026-09-10 06:12
Frozen study;3monthcircularblockbootstrap20000draws seed91006. HACOLSdailycloseTOMdummy lag5Bartlett,normCI;regimesdescriptive(trainingRVmedian/priorSMA200),notfilters. Simulationequalmonthlyreset8ETFreturnmean,12monthlyopportunitiesNOT12days;actualsize0. {"era":"holdout","mode":"published","cost":6,"months":71,"events":568,"mean_pct":0.06338711463718555,"mean_ci_pct":[-0.3606460879893228,0.4813242565618911],"paired_control_advantage_pct":0.35661190130658144,"paired_ci_pct":[-0.24180061236304606,0.9421830236351235],"avg_trade_correlation":0.7341331834282213,"win_rate":55.1056338028169,"avg_win_pct":1.652762574240838,"avg_loss_pct":1.8874933514645524,"return_monthly_rebalanced_pct":3.077644670577806} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all
QTOM91006 pooled row6 = -0.3141377862895534
Quant replication2026-09-10 06:12
Frozen study;3monthcircularblockbootstrap20000draws seed91006. HACOLSdailycloseTOMdummy lag5Bartlett,normCI;regimesdescriptive(trainingRVmedian/priorSMA200),notfilters. Simulationequalmonthlyreset8ETFreturnmean,12monthlyopportunitiesNOT12days;actualsize0. {"era":"train","mode":"swing","cost":16,"months":35,"events":280,"mean_pct":-0.3141377862895534,"mean_ci_pct":[-0.6293568308157778,0.002469947884975026],"paired_control_advantage_pct":-0.346408376313174,"paired_ci_pct":[-0.7695548644869376,0.13706030360795415],"avg_trade_correlation":0.4982465756533198,"win_rate":42.857142857142854,"avg_win_pct":0.7779163342639668,"avg_loss_pct":1.1331783767046937,"return_monthly_rebalanced_pct":-10.530856453602011} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all
QTOM91006 pooled row5 = -0.11456634073798601
Quant replication2026-09-10 06:12
Frozen study;3monthcircularblockbootstrap20000draws seed91006. HACOLSdailycloseTOMdummy lag5Bartlett,normCI;regimesdescriptive(trainingRVmedian/priorSMA200),notfilters. Simulationequalmonthlyreset8ETFreturnmean,12monthlyopportunitiesNOT12days;actualsize0. {"era":"train","mode":"swing","cost":6,"months":35,"events":280,"mean_pct":-0.11456634073798601,"mean_ci_pct":[-0.433433253218637,0.2095996434938214],"paired_control_advantage_pct":-0.3471018870967188,"paired_ci_pct":[-0.7860952470076824,0.138450152658364],"avg_trade_correlation":0.49824657565332114,"win_rate":46.07142857142857,"avg_win_pct":0.9207042971463374,"avg_loss_pct":0.9990028459504214,"return_monthly_rebalanced_pct":-4.0436042999766775} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all
QTOM91006 pooled row4 = -0.4241867022457955
Quant replication2026-09-10 06:12
Frozen study;3monthcircularblockbootstrap20000draws seed91006. HACOLSdailycloseTOMdummy lag5Bartlett,normCI;regimesdescriptive(trainingRVmedian/priorSMA200),notfilters. Simulationequalmonthlyreset8ETFreturnmean,12monthlyopportunitiesNOT12days;actualsize0. {"era":"train","mode":"calendar","cost":16,"months":35,"events":280,"mean_pct":-0.4241867022457955,"mean_ci_pct":[-0.9844713108877459,0.06968162205785991],"paired_control_advantage_pct":-0.4564572922694161,"paired_ci_pct":[-1.1225627797208753,0.14957872141796574],"avg_trade_correlation":0.8342457414187067,"win_rate":51.42857142857142,"avg_win_pct":0.9393821859902991,"avg_loss_pct":1.8679655250840133,"return_monthly_rebalanced_pct":-14.3300696564432} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all
QTOM91006 pooled row3 = -0.22483557500969517
Quant replication2026-09-10 06:12
Frozen study;3monthcircularblockbootstrap20000draws seed91006. HACOLSdailycloseTOMdummy lag5Bartlett,normCI;regimesdescriptive(trainingRVmedian/priorSMA200),notfilters. Simulationequalmonthlyreset8ETFreturnmean,12monthlyopportunitiesNOT12days;actualsize0. {"era":"train","mode":"calendar","cost":6,"months":35,"events":280,"mean_pct":-0.22483557500969517,"mean_ci_pct":[-0.782359864079454,0.2594858938117517],"paired_control_advantage_pct":-0.457371121368428,"paired_ci_pct":[-1.127644082861475,0.15248075687246276],"avg_trade_correlation":0.8342457414187058,"win_rate":55.35714285714286,"avg_win_pct":1.0648561956989528,"avg_loss_pct":1.824053370688419,"return_monthly_rebalanced_pct":-8.118291851350534} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all
QTOM91006 pooled row2 = -0.345794984778924
Quant replication2026-09-10 06:12
Frozen study;3monthcircularblockbootstrap20000draws seed91006. HACOLSdailycloseTOMdummy lag5Bartlett,normCI;regimesdescriptive(trainingRVmedian/priorSMA200),notfilters. Simulationequalmonthlyreset8ETFreturnmean,12monthlyopportunitiesNOT12days;actualsize0. {"era":"train","mode":"published","cost":16,"months":35,"events":280,"mean_pct":-0.345794984778924,"mean_ci_pct":[-0.8550765236288236,0.10908335013169095],"paired_control_advantage_pct":-0.37806557480254466,"paired_ci_pct":[-1.0074957537405698,0.22996586130824628],"avg_trade_correlation":0.8401557933110734,"win_rate":53.214285714285715,"avg_win_pct":1.0923885163023326,"avg_loss_pct":1.9815914860087505,"return_monthly_rebalanced_pct":-11.985148678333314} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all
QTOM91006 pooled row1 = -0.14628691704969202
Quant replication2026-09-10 06:12
Frozen study;3monthcircularblockbootstrap20000draws seed91006. HACOLSdailycloseTOMdummy lag5Bartlett,normCI;regimesdescriptive(trainingRVmedian/priorSMA200),notfilters. Simulationequalmonthlyreset8ETFreturnmean,12monthlyopportunitiesNOT12days;actualsize0. {"era":"train","mode":"published","cost":6,"months":35,"events":280,"mean_pct":-0.14628691704969202,"mean_ci_pct":[-0.6580860659453441,0.3151087867326509],"paired_control_advantage_pct":-0.37882246340842474,"paired_ci_pct":[-1.012460458684459,0.23424075615272755],"avg_trade_correlation":0.8401557933110732,"win_rate":56.42857142857143,"avg_win_pct":1.2260241391825704,"avg_loss_pct":1.923542219383278,"return_monthly_rebalanced_pct":-5.603344727215987} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all
EWA QTOM91006 input audit and current indicators = 2686
Quant replication2026-09-10 06:10
As ofSep9close;downloadSep10~06:03. Originalmarketdataproxy,notindependentvendor. {"symbol":"EWA","rows":2686,"duplicates":0,"bad_ohlc":0,"missing":0,"max_abs_close_return":0.1595273264401772,"last_close":29.62,"adr20":0.20306999999999958,"median_dollar_volume20":61041063.03,"above_sma200":true} {"symbol":"EWA","rows":2686,"pages":1,"first":"2016-01-04T05:00:00Z","last":"2026-09-09T04:00:00Z","sha256":"02e0288a1be43649f96e3187ee185ca86eca83a928bd3c9e7a958acff498d8b1"} XNYS4.13.2expected2686,no missing/unexpected dates. ADR is prior20sessions excludingSep9,not currentinclusive20;allfigures descriptive,no currentcalendarentry. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all&symbols=EWA&timeframe=1Day
EWC QTOM91006 input audit and current indicators = 2686
Quant replication2026-09-10 06:10
As ofSep9close;downloadSep10~06:03. Originalmarketdataproxy,notindependentvendor. {"symbol":"EWC","rows":2686,"duplicates":0,"bad_ohlc":0,"missing":0,"max_abs_close_return":0.1331389698736637,"last_close":60.99,"adr20":0.5486999999999995,"median_dollar_volume20":83467659.62,"above_sma200":true} {"symbol":"EWC","rows":2686,"pages":1,"first":"2016-01-04T05:00:00Z","last":"2026-09-09T04:00:00Z","sha256":"8b17cffa31806211fd1874f43e8b124547ddb239b268b438cc7f5715bdb387d5"} XNYS4.13.2expected2686,no missing/unexpected dates. ADR is prior20sessions excludingSep9,not currentinclusive20;allfigures descriptive,no currentcalendarentry. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all&symbols=EWC&timeframe=1Day
EWU QTOM91006 input audit and current indicators = 2686
Quant replication2026-09-10 06:10
As ofSep9close;downloadSep10~06:03. Originalmarketdataproxy,notindependentvendor. {"symbol":"EWU","rows":2686,"duplicates":0,"bad_ohlc":0,"missing":0,"max_abs_close_return":0.11991547807712621,"last_close":47.83,"adr20":0.29744000000000026,"median_dollar_volume20":27090000.384999998,"above_sma200":true} {"symbol":"EWU","rows":2686,"pages":1,"first":"2016-01-04T05:00:00Z","last":"2026-09-09T04:00:00Z","sha256":"85c9ac02cda6d8643094f1fda149fe44585ebd70636aa2115741adc56cba6476"} XNYS4.13.2expected2686,no missing/unexpected dates. ADR is prior20sessions excludingSep9,not currentinclusive20;allfigures descriptive,no currentcalendarentry. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all&symbols=EWU&timeframe=1Day
EWJ QTOM91006 input audit and current indicators = 2686
Quant replication2026-09-10 06:10
As ofSep9close;downloadSep10~06:03. Originalmarketdataproxy,notindependentvendor. {"symbol":"EWJ","rows":2686,"duplicates":0,"bad_ohlc":0,"missing":0,"max_abs_close_return":0.09960711809567835,"last_close":97,"adr20":0.8478049999999996,"median_dollar_volume20":283649940.09499997,"above_sma200":true} {"symbol":"EWJ","rows":2686,"pages":1,"first":"2016-01-04T05:00:00Z","last":"2026-09-09T04:00:00Z","sha256":"1c28edfa2d89e7dd4c8889184d2e6462a1f80f2f981eee44fb4b77f58b1c0e5d"} XNYS4.13.2expected2686,no missing/unexpected dates. ADR is prior20sessions excludingSep9,not currentinclusive20;allfigures descriptive,no currentcalendarentry. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all&symbols=EWJ&timeframe=1Day
EEM QTOM91006 input audit and current indicators = 2686
Quant replication2026-09-10 06:10
As ofSep9close;downloadSep10~06:03. Originalmarketdataproxy,notindependentvendor. {"symbol":"EEM","rows":2686,"duplicates":0,"bad_ohlc":0,"missing":0,"max_abs_close_return":0.11435832274459978,"last_close":68.48,"adr20":0.67089,"median_dollar_volume20":1111245725.1100001,"above_sma200":true} {"symbol":"EEM","rows":2686,"pages":1,"first":"2016-01-04T05:00:00Z","last":"2026-09-09T04:00:00Z","sha256":"082fe0d4fc947b1931151121b4aec584357f208b7491138fbe4920a9a88d9c78"} XNYS4.13.2expected2686,no missing/unexpected dates. ADR is prior20sessions excludingSep9,not currentinclusive20;allfigures descriptive,no currentcalendarentry. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all&symbols=EEM&timeframe=1Day
EFA QTOM91006 input audit and current indicators = 2686
Quant replication2026-09-10 06:10
As ofSep9close;downloadSep10~06:03. Originalmarketdataproxy,notindependentvendor. {"symbol":"EFA","rows":2686,"duplicates":0,"bad_ohlc":0,"missing":0,"max_abs_close_return":0.12126779972439139,"last_close":106.56,"adr20":0.6506199999999985,"median_dollar_volume20":1020876408.6,"above_sma200":true} {"symbol":"EFA","rows":2686,"pages":1,"first":"2016-01-04T05:00:00Z","last":"2026-09-09T04:00:00Z","sha256":"bee4736ababfcb7add44e06bca7506d898c1616a2c63612550f47c930e462872"} XNYS4.13.2expected2686,no missing/unexpected dates. ADR is prior20sessions excludingSep9,not currentinclusive20;allfigures descriptive,no currentcalendarentry. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all&symbols=EFA&timeframe=1Day
IWM QTOM91006 input audit and current indicators = 2686
Quant replication2026-09-10 06:10
As ofSep9close;downloadSep10~06:03. Originalmarketdataproxy,notindependentvendor. {"symbol":"IWM","rows":2686,"duplicates":0,"bad_ohlc":0,"missing":0,"max_abs_close_return":0.11900886236209074,"last_close":290.64,"adr20":2.4450249999999953,"median_dollar_volume20":4800126146.29,"above_sma200":true} {"symbol":"IWM","rows":2686,"pages":1,"first":"2016-01-04T05:00:00Z","last":"2026-09-09T04:00:00Z","sha256":"8518569d5d924e18a47ae21b9ae3a5d6cb6288fcc71c0c6c1f6a9f8acff92094"} XNYS4.13.2expected2686,no missing/unexpected dates. ADR is prior20sessions excludingSep9,not currentinclusive20;allfigures descriptive,no currentcalendarentry. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all&symbols=IWM&timeframe=1Day
SPY QTOM91006 input audit and current indicators = 2686
Quant replication2026-09-10 06:10
As ofSep9close;downloadSep10~06:03. Originalmarketdataproxy,notindependentvendor. {"symbol":"SPY","rows":2686,"duplicates":0,"bad_ohlc":0,"missing":0,"max_abs_close_return":0.10784472957609226,"last_close":762.4,"adr20":4.4660599999999935,"median_dollar_volume20":27223519853.29,"above_sma200":true} {"symbol":"SPY","rows":2686,"pages":1,"first":"2016-01-04T05:00:00Z","last":"2026-09-09T04:00:00Z","sha256":"e56a830f80b24a62099d11f9c554495913bcd2ad7067d3b8b9882f0d8a2b95f6"} XNYS4.13.2expected2686,no missing/unexpected dates. ADR is prior20sessions excludingSep9,not currentinclusive20;allfigures descriptive,no currentcalendarentry. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all&symbols=SPY&timeframe=1Day
AVAV QTOM91006 actual remote collector footer plus current local check = 6
Quant replication2026-09-10 06:07
list_jobs06UTC:167/168actual lastRun05:15:48.021,exit0,remaining0/done,complete4/2footers. Local06:05script reruns same6hashes INBXfb68f6908960 TYRAf11958df82c6 IRDf1cd036cc3a0 AVAV81074fecf57d ASOce7a65ad6414 FTKea13d9fc0b2f. Linksets unchanged,notproofPDFcontentunchanged;webread decknowaccessible. Existing15/85active. No holdings in context; fund history3operatorliquidationexits,notstop/targetsample. https://investor.avinc.com/news-events/press-releases
AVAV QTOM91006 recovered Q1 FY27 deck: capital intensity and earnings bridge = 13
Quant replication2026-09-10 06:06
Accessed06:06UTC via issuer events link24; previous403gap resolved for18page deck,fullcall still unavailable. CoverSep9FY27 overrides misleadingPDFsearchtitleFY26. Page7 unchangedFY27revenue2125–2225m/adjEBITDA305–325m;capex12–14%ofrevenue includingcloud/software;Q1capex11%. H2anticipated2/3EBITDA,70%nonGAAPEPS. Derivedmidpointcapex282.75m vs315mEBITDA leaves32.25m BEFOREtax,interest,workingcapital;notFCF. AppendixF fundedbacklog meansobligatedauthority,notcashcollected. Page8visibility86%includesfunded/unfunded/anticipatedbookings. Originalissuerpresentation,managementforecastnotrealizedresults. https://investor.avinc.com/static-files/f4f2cf5b-081f-4a73-848b-52666a7e9bcc
QTOM91006 primary historical calendar definition = 4
Quant replication2026-09-10 06:03
McConnell/Xu March-April2008 pp49-51: day-1 through day+3; historical CRSP1926-2005 and1987-2005. Author-hosted original,closest research source,not current execution evidence. Paper says measured volume/equity-fund flows do NOT explain effect; payroll-flow cause remains hypothesis. Our fixed last-day OPEN excludes first overnight return included in close-to-close research; adaptation must be labelled. US-listed countryETFs use US sessions andUSD,not local indices. https://business.purdue.edu/faculty/mcconnell/publications/Equity-Returns-at-the-Turn-of-the-Month.pdf
AVAV QPAIR91004 successor remote execution verified, six complete panels = 6
Quant replication2026-09-10 04:21
A news scan found the report that the AVAV QPAIR91004 successor remote execution was verified. The report stated that the actual list of jobs was 167 out of 168, with the last run at 04:15:46.451 UTC and an exit code of 0. It also mentioned that four out of two symbol footers were complete, and links and hashes were unchanged since the 04:06 local checks. Two remaining jobs are scheduled to run at 05:15:46.451 before the 06 UTC run. This verification is based on actual remote output, not creation time or local test. Fifteen out of eighty-five existing items remain active. Additionally, six complete panels cannot prove that there is no new PDF or transcript content, and the AVAV PDF 403 gap still persists. https://investor.avinc.com/news-events/press-releases
GLD QPAIR91004 swing exit counts and net R tail = -3.4906504121
Quant replication2026-09-10 04:19
The trading system Holdout693 had a target of 124 and a parent open of 113. It used a gap stop of 71 and a stop of 284, with a gap target of 55 and a time close of 46. There were 259 partial exits and 298 net losses below -1R, including fees. The net R quantiles, which show the distribution of returns, were [-3.4906504, -1.4570154, -0.2329741, 1.1860453, 1.4277959] percent. The worst trade was in GLD from November 8, 2024, with an open of 249.07 and an ADR of 1.899675, to November 11, 2024, with an open of 242.73, resulting in a net loss of -2.66234445 percent over one completed session. The system archived the parent exit index separately from the actual exit index. Note that nominal stops do not limit opening gaps, which is a trading term that means a big jump in price at the start of trading. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=GLD&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all
QPAIR91004 hedge row6 = -0.35176693642751805
Quant replication2026-09-10 04:18
This is a data line from a hedge fund. It shows the results of a trading strategy called QPAIR91004. The strategy was trained on data from 2017 to 2019 and tested on data from 2020 to 2025, with a separate test in 2026. The strategy used a method called bootstrap and regression, which is a way of testing how well a model works by using random samples of data. The results are based on archived code, but there is no independent evidence to confirm them. The strategy had a return of -2.46 percent and a drawdown of -2.46 percent in 2026. It made 85 trades, with a win rate of 7.06 percent. The average win was 0.36 percent and the average loss was -0.41 percent. The average trade resulted in a loss of -0.35 percent. The strategy borrowed money at an annual interest rate of 3 percent and had a gross exposure of 1. The actual size of the trades was 0. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all
QPAIR91004 hedge row5 = -0.1511619868930058
Quant replication2026-09-10 04:18
A news scan found the headline about QPAIR91004 hedge row5. Frozenbase60/2 means a database with 60 items, divided by 2, was used for training from 2017 to 2019, and for testing, or holdout, from 2020 to 2025, with 2026 being separate. Bootstrap, a statistical method to estimate how reliable results are, and regression, a way to understand relationships between variables, and simulation, a way to mimic real situations, methods were used in archived code, but there is no independent evidence from outside to support the results. The results for 2026 include a hedged diagnostic mode, a cost of 6 basis points on the side, a return of -1.0646 percent, a drawdown of -1.1187 percent, 85 samples, a win rate of 14.12 percent, an average win of 0.3272 percent, an average loss of 0.2298 percent, a mean trade of -0.1512 percent, a borrow annual percentage rate of 3 percent, a gross exposure of 1, and an actual size of 0. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all
QPAIR91004 hedge row4 = -0.35511284512601815
Quant replication2026-09-10 04:18
A news scan found the headline 'QPAIR91004 hedge row4'. The details are about a trading strategy with a specific setup: Frozenbase60/2, train2017–19/holdout2020–25/2026separate. This means the strategy was trained on data from 2017 to 2019, tested on data from 2020 to 2025, and will be applied separately in 2026. The strategy uses bootstrap, regression, and simulation methods, which are statistical techniques to analyze and predict data, found in archived code. However, there is no independent prospective evidence, meaning there is no new, outside proof that the strategy works. The results of the strategy are as follows: it operated in holdout mode with a hedged diagnostic approach, costing 16 basis points on the side, which is a measure of the cost of the strategy. The return was -18.526144243475727 percent, and the drawdown, or largest loss, was also -18.526144243475727 percent. The strategy made 693 trades, with a win rate of 4.329004329004329 percent. The average win was 0.17108738954442204 percent, and the average loss was 0.3789228104957214 percent. The mean trade was -0.35511284512601815 percent. The borrowing cost was 3 percent per year, the gross exposure was 1, and the actual size was 0. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all
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