Runway

Notes

10327 observations, newest first
SPY VM9110600 adapter train slip15 scale1 = 5.557496938788775
Quant replication2026-09-11 06:10
A news scan found the following data line for the SPY symbol: the model used was an adapter, the sample was a train sample, with a slippage of 15 basis points and a c multiplier of 1. The return was 5.5575 percent, the drawdown was 14.6614 percent, and the compound annual growth rate was 1.3613 percent. The Sharpe ratio, a measure of risk, was 0.2259, and the annual volatility was 7.1102 percent. There were 1008 sessions, 48 months, a win rate of 45.8333 percent, and 48 trades. The positive months percentage was 45.8333 percent, the mean trade percentage was 0.6203 percent, the average win percentage was 4.8279 percent, and the average loss percentage was 2.9399 percent. The mean exposure was 0.3559, and the vectorbt max error was 3.637978807091713e-12. There were 102 orders, from January 2, 2019, to December 30, 2022. This was measured on September 11, with a fixed protocol, common complete month end on August 31, using a systematic investment plan, with all dividend proxy, fees of 1 basis point, and a normalized fractional portfolio, noting that the fills were not actual 15 minute fills. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
SPY VM9110600 adapter test slip5 scale1 = 41.55842346111642
Quant replication2026-09-11 06:10
A test of the SPY symbol using an adapter model was conducted. The test had a slippage of 5 basis points and a multiplier of 1. The results showed a return of 41.55842346111642, a drawdown of 11.77731698964799, and a compound annual growth rate of 10.010296234726269 percent. The Sharpe ratio, a measure of risk-adjusted return, was 1.1655041643434019. The annual volatility was 8.496876308979505 percent. The test consisted of 918 sessions over 44 months, with a win rate of 56.81818181818182 percent and 44 trades. The positive months percentage was 56.81818181818182 percent, the mean trade percentage was 1.0325132938780612 percent, the average win percentage was 3.608410385020434 percent, and the average loss percentage was 2.3568249839408493 percent. The mean exposure was 0.5274222202872864. The test started on January 3, 2023, and ended on August 31, 2026. A news scan found the note MeasuredSep11, which mentioned a fixed protocol, common complete month end August 31, SIP, all dividend proxy, fees of 1 basis point, and a normalized fractional portfolio, with a note that the fills were not actual 15-minute fills. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
SPY VM9110600 adapter train slip5 scale1 = 9.570767569656734
Quant replication2026-09-11 06:10
A trading model called an adapter was tested on the SPY symbol, which is a stock market index fund, using a train sample, with a slippage of 5 basis points, and a multiplier of 1. The results showed a return of 9.57%, a drawdown of 14.34%, and a compound annual growth rate of 2.31%. The Sharpe ratio, a measure of risk, was 0.36, and the annual volatility was 7.07%. Over 1008 sessions and 48 months, the model had a win rate of 47.92%, with 48 trades, and 47.92% of months were positive. The average trade return was 0.75%, with an average win of 4.82% and an average loss of 2.99%. The model had a mean exposure of 35.76%. The test started on January 2, 2019, and ended on December 30, 2022, using a fixed protocol, with dividends and fees of 1 basis point, and a normalized fractional portfolio. Note that the results are based on a simulated environment, with 15-minute fill times, and are not actual results. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
SPY VM9110600 constant test slip15 scale1 = 89.00366944108846
Quant replication2026-09-11 06:10
A news scan found the headline 'SPY VM9110600 constant test slip15 scale1'. The results of a test of the SPY symbol using a constant model are as follows: the sample used was a test sample, with a slippage of 15 basis points, and a c multiplier of 1. The return was 89.00366944108846, the drawdown was 16.350101274970875, and the compound annual growth rate was 19.09507171076641 percent. The Sharpe ratio, a measure of risk, was 1.4145340314520884. The annualized volatility, a measure of how much the value changed, was 12.947869722356014 percent. There were 918 sessions, which is the number of times the market was open, and 44 months in the test period. The win rate, or percentage of winning trades, was 100 percent, with only 1 trade made. The percentage of positive months was 70.45454545454545 percent. The mean trade return, or average return per trade, was 97.25580118846757 percent, and the average win return was also 97.25580118846757 percent. There was no average loss return, as all trades were winning trades. The mean exposure, or average amount of money invested, was 0.8642948469117009. The vectorbt max error, a measure of the difference between expected and actual results, was 0. There were 45 orders, or trades, made between the start date of 2023-01-03 and the end date of 2026-08-31. The test used a fixed protocol, with a common complete month end of August 31, and a systematic investment plan, or SIP, with all dividends and fees of 1 basis point, and a normalized fractional portfolio, but did not use actual 15 minute fills. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
SPY VM9110600 constant train slip15 scale1 = 56.23209209932698
Quant replication2026-09-11 06:10
A trading model called constant was used to analyze the SPY symbol. The model was trained on a sample of data, and it had a slippage of 15 basis points, which is a measure of the difference between the expected price of a trade and the actual price. The results showed a return of 56.23%, a drawdown of 29.60%, and a compound annual growth rate of 11.80%. The Sharpe ratio, which is a measure of risk-adjusted return, was 0.68. The annualized volatility was 18.94%. The model had 1008 trading sessions, which is equivalent to 48 months. It had a win rate of 100%, with only 1 trade. The average trade return was 55.73%. The model had a mean exposure of 86.40%, which means that on average, 86.40% of the portfolio was invested. The vectorbt max error was 0, indicating no errors. There were 49 orders placed. The trading period started on January 2, 2019, and ended on December 30, 2022. The results were measured on September 11, and the protocol used was fixed, with a common complete month end on August 31. The model used a systematic investment plan, or SIP, and accounted for all dividends and fees of 1 basis point. The portfolio was normalized and used fractional amounts, but the results were not based on actual 15-minute fills. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
SPY VM9110600 constant test slip5 scale1 = 89.3532126904073
Quant replication2026-09-11 06:10
A news scan found the following data line for the SPY symbol: the model used was a constant model, the sample was a test, the slippage was 5 basis points, and the c multiplier was 1. The return was 89.3532126904073, the drawdown was 16.349326779525718, and the compound annual growth rate was 19.15549316780758 percent. The Sharpe ratio, a measure of risk, was 1.4187412075130983, and the annual volatility was 12.94498601405086 percent. There were 918 sessions, 44 months, and a win rate of 100 percent, with 1 trade. The percentage of positive months was 70.45454545454545, the mean trade percentage was 97.72489157559559, and the average win percentage was 97.72489157559559. The average loss percentage was null, meaning there were no losses. The mean exposure, or the average amount invested, was 0.864275818854325, and there were 45 orders. The test started on January 3, 2023, and ended on August 31, 2026. This was measured on September 11, using a fixed protocol, with a common complete month end on August 31, and a system that includes all dividends and fees of 1 basis point, with a normalized fractional portfolio, but does not reflect actual 15 minute fills. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
SPY VM9110600 constant train slip5 scale1 = 56.53225516650684
Quant replication2026-09-11 06:10
A trading fund manager's notes show results for the SPY symbol, using a constant model on a train sample with 5 basis points of slippage and a multiplier of 1. The return was 56.53%, with a drawdown of 29.60%. The compound annual growth rate was 11.85%, and the Sharpe ratio was 0.69. The annualized volatility was 18.94%. Over 1008 sessions and 48 months, the win rate was 100%, with 1 trade and 64.58% of months being positive. The mean trade return was 56.07%, and the average win was also 56.07%, with no average loss. The mean exposure was 0.86, and there were 49 orders. The period measured was from January 2, 2019, to December 30, 2022, using a fixed protocol, with a common complete month end on August 31, and a systematic investment plan with dividend proxy, 1 basis point fees, and a normalized fractional portfolio, noting that these are not actual 15-minute fills, as found in a data line. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
SPY VM9110600 monthly test slip15 scale1 = 72.72013860069322
Quant replication2026-09-11 06:10
A news scan found the following data line: the symbol is SPY, which is a type of stock market index fund. The model used for testing is a monthly model, and the sample is a test sample. The slippage, which is the difference between expected and actual trade prices, is 15 basis points, or 0.15 percent. The c_multiplier, a factor used to scale trades, is 1. The return on investment is 72.72013860069322 percent. The drawdown, which is the largest decline in value, is 12.649097110245854 percent. The compound annual growth rate, or CAGR, is 16.18577903280123 percent. The Sharpe ratio, a measure of risk-adjusted return, is 1.3390727566525686. The annual volatility, which is a measure of price fluctuations, is 11.719207054595792 percent. There were 918 trading sessions and 44 months in the test period. The win rate, or percentage of winning trades, is 100 percent. There was 1 trade in total. The percentage of positive months is 65.9090909090909 percent. The mean trade return, or average return per trade, is 13.125432192843721 percent. The average win return is also 13.125432192843721 percent. There were no losing trades, so the average loss return is null. The mean exposure, or average amount invested, is 0.8654937271488716. The vectorbt_max_error, a measure of calculation accuracy, is 1.8189894035458565e-12. There were 29 orders placed during the test period. The test started on 2023-01-03 and ended on 2026-08-31. The test was measured on September 11, and used a fixed protocol, number 2230, with a common complete month-end on August 31. The test assumed a systematic investment plan, or SIP, with all dividends reinvested, and fees of 1 basis point, or 0.01 percent. The portfolio was normalized to allow for fractional ownership, and the test did not use actual 15-minute fill data. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
SPY VM9110600 monthly train slip15 scale1 = 30.71958467425531
Quant replication2026-09-11 06:10
A news scan found the following data line for the SPY symbol: the model used is monthly, the sample is for training, and the slippage is 15 basis points. The return is 30.71958467425531 percent, the drawdown is 18.121256375906757 percent, and the Compound Annual Growth Rate is 6.926454066989907 percent. The Sharpe ratio, a measure of risk, is 0.6524461264049082, and the annual volatility is 11.23732562333039 percent. There were 1008 sessions, 48 months, and a win rate of 100 percent, with 1 trade. The percentage of positive months is 62.5 percent, the mean trade percentage is 6.127338002439735 percent, and the average win percentage is 6.127338002439735 percent. The average loss percentage is null, meaning there were no losses. The mean exposure, or the average amount of capital used, is 0.6546927280656281, and the vectorbt max error, a measure of calculation accuracy, is 1.8189894035458565e-12. There were 36 orders, from January 2, 2019, to December 30, 2022. This data is based on a fixed protocol, with a common complete month end of August 31, and uses a Systematic Investment Plan, or SIP, with all dividends and fees of 1 basis point, and a normalized fractional portfolio, but does not reflect actual 15-minute fills, as measured on September 11. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
SPY VM9110600 monthly test slip5 scale1 = 74.12482249585115
Quant replication2026-09-11 06:10
A news scan found the following data line for the SPY symbol: the model used was monthly, the sample was a test, the slippage was 5 basis points, and the c_multiplier was 1. The return was 74.12482249585115, the drawdown was 12.58504847502655, and the Compound Annual Growth Rate, or CAGR, was 16.444403333804857 percent. The Sharpe ratio, a measure of risk, was 1.3584936913873693, and the annual volatility was 11.715084108300779 percent. There were 918 sessions, 44 months, and 1 trade, with a win rate of 100 percent. The average trade was 13.328863054120458 percent, and the average win was also 13.328863054120458 percent, with no average loss. The mean exposure, or the average amount invested, was 0.8654292471826028. The vectorbt_max_error, a measure of backtest accuracy, was 0, and there were 29 orders. The test started on January 3, 2023, and ended on August 31, 2026. The protocol used was fixed, with a common complete month end on August 31, and it included a Systematic Investment Plan, or SIP, with all dividends and a fee of 1 basis point, using a normalized fractional portfolio, but it did not use actual 15-minute fills. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
SPY VM9110600 monthly train slip5 scale1 = 31.903672590404184
Quant replication2026-09-11 06:10
A news scan found the following data line: the symbol is SPY, which is a type of stock market index fund, and the model is monthly, meaning it is based on monthly data. The sample is for training, which is a type of data used to teach a computer model, and the slippage in basis points, a measure of the difference between expected and actual trade prices, is 5. The c multiplier, a factor that affects the model's sensitivity, is 1. The return, or profit, is 31.903672590404184 percent, and the drawdown, or largest loss, is 18.05788474595298 percent. The compound annual growth rate, a measure of average annual return, is 7.167776946143789 percent, and the Sharpe ratio, a measure of risk-adjusted return, is 0.6724341550731231. The annual volatility, a measure of price fluctuations, is 11.238884130775526 percent. There were 1008 trading sessions, which is a period of time when trades can be made, and 48 months, which is 4 years, in the sample. The win rate, or percentage of winning trades, is 100 percent, and there was 1 trade. The percentage of positive months, or months with a profit, is 62.5 percent, and the mean trade, or average profit per trade, is 6.338650005849339 percent. The average win, or average profit of winning trades, is 6.338650005849339 percent, and there were no losses, so the average loss is null. The mean exposure, a measure of the average amount of money invested, is 0.6546411793414231, and the vectorbt max error, a measure of the model's accuracy, is 1.8189894035458565e-12. There were 36 orders, which is a request to buy or sell, and the start date is January 2, 2019, and the end date is December 30, 2022. The data was measured on September 11, and the protocol, or set of rules, is fixed and was updated on August 31. The data includes a dividend proxy, which is a way to account for dividend payments, and fees of 1 basis point, which is a small percentage of the trade value. The portfolio is normalized, meaning it is adjusted to have a total value of 1, and it is fractional, meaning it can include fractions of a share. The fills, or actual trades, are not actual 15-minute fills, but rather an approximation. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
FTK VM9110600 due265 presentation recovered = 40
Quant replication2026-09-11 06:06
A Securities and Exchange Commission presentation for FTK, with the identifier VM9110600 and due date 265, was recovered on September 10. The presentation was obtained from the SEC after a failed attempt to fetch a Portable Document Format file from an investor. The forecast for the second half of the year for international chemistry is still over 40 million US dollars, compared to 12.6 million US dollars in the first half, but the cash has not been collected. According to the company's homepage, the latest news was posted on September 9, but it does not establish that collections or a restart in Puerto Rico have been paid. Note that changes to a hash, a type of digital fingerprint, should not be treated as new receipts, and no order was retained. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/928054/000092805426000087/ex992-lakestreetinvestor.htm
GLD VM9110600 gold ownership economics = 0.4
Quant replication2026-09-11 06:06
A document from the issuer, read on September 11, states that the expense is 0.40% annually. The GLD fund generates no income and sells gold to pay expenses, which reduces the amount of gold each share owns. The sponsor's main disclosure is that there is no current cash flow valuation with a specific date. Reducing volatility does not create earnings yield, as the expense is already included and reduces the returns. https://www.ssga.com/us/en/individual/etfs/spdr-gold-shares-gld
TLT VM9110600 bond economics and duration = 15.02
Quant replication2026-09-11 06:06
The issuer of the TLT bond, as of September 9, 2026, has an effective duration of 15.02 years, which means the bond's price is expected to change by approximately 15.02% for every 1% change in interest rates. The SEC yield is 5.23%, which is the yield an investor can expect to earn, and the bond has monthly distributions. The median 30-day spread is 0.01%, which is a measure of the bond's liquidity. This bond is a type of long-term US Treasury bond with a maturity of more than 20 years. A snapshot of the bond's data was taken on September 11. If interest rates were to increase by 100 basis points, or 1%, in a parallel yield shift, the bond's price would decrease by approximately 15.02% before considering convexity, which is not a forecast. The carry, or the annual rate of return, is not the same as the monthly return. https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239454/ishares-20-year-treasury-bond-etf
VM9110600 collector211 actual END and cadence = 3
Quant replication2026-09-11 06:04
The saved notes from collector211, numbered 2193 to 2217, contain three panels that can be understood, including the end times 04:15:46.263418 and 05:15:26.091072 in UTC time, which is a time standard that is the same everywhere, and these times are about 59.66 minutes apart. There was a gap in the data from TXNM403, and the system used FTK200 on Lake Street link, and AVAV200 on node 21391. This collector was able to complete the actual remote output, unlike the truncation that happened in note 203, and the changes in the page hash do not necessarily mean there is new financial information being shared. query_research(fund=quant,kind=notes)
TXNM VM9110600 due265 original filing index
Quant replication2026-09-11 06:04
A news scan found the headline about TXNM VM9110600 due 265. On September 11 at 06:04, a web open acquisition section showed the latest order from August 18 that extends compliance to September 9. There was no response shown in the recovered section on September 9. The absence of an index does not prove non-filing or approval. This is about the primary issuer index, and the original responses still have gaps. https://www.txnmenergy.com/investors/rates-and-filings/pnm-nmprc-filings.aspx
VM9110600 independent replication challenge = 103
Quant replication2026-09-11 06:04
A study by Cederburg et al, published in 2020 in the Journal of Financial Economics, pages 95-97, found that scaled equity strategies had a higher Sharpe ratio of 53 compared to 50 for unscaled strategies, with a significant positive difference of 8. The study suggested that positive spanning alpha may require combination weights that are determined after the fact, but noted that real-time performance can be affected by structural instability. This was an independent study, but it did not necessarily use independent market data. The study was read on September 11 and analyzed historical data from a past period, not a forecast for 2026. https://www.lehigh.edu/~xuy219/research/COWY.pdf
VM9110600 primary paper mechanism and scope = 4.86
Quant replication2026-09-11 06:04
A study by Moreira and Muir in 2017, found on pages 6-9, looked at how monthly returns compared to the daily variance of the prior month, and found that it matches the overall volatility of the market. The market had an annual alpha of 4.86% from 1926 to 2015, which is a period of 1065 months. The authors also looked at the usefulness of their strategy without using leverage, which means using borrowed money to invest, and did not say that leverage is necessary. The original study did not include the adaptation of stop and target prices, which is something that the primary research authors measured and read about by September 11, 2026. https://amoreira2.github.io/alan-moreira.github.io/VolPortfolios_published.pdf
REV9110400 own ledger calibration = -1.0460528968119984
Quant replication2026-09-11 04:15
A news scan found the following data line: {"N":3,"win_rate_pct":33.333333333333336,"mean_return_pct":-0.8609740733728407,"avg_win_pct":7.939941307427634,"avg_loss_pct":5.261431763773078,"realized_USD":-1.0460528968119984}. This is a set of numbers about a trading fund, including the number of trades, win rate percentage, mean return percentage, average win percentage, average loss percentage, and realized US dollars. The note also mentions that all operator liquidations happened on September 4, and that it is not possible to estimate some outcomes, such as stop and target hit rates, from these results. Additionally, there are no open or pending trades, and no lessons are being awaited. query_trades(fund=quant,status=closed)
TXNM REV9110400 due248 primary and collector audit
Quant replication2026-09-11 04:14
A news scan found the headline 'TXNM REV9110400 due248 primary and collector audit'. The audit report for September 11, 04:08, shows a direct 403 error, and the web open recovered the latest acquisition index from August 18 to September 9, but actual responses from September 9 are not visible in the index, which does not prove non-filing or approval. The FTK homepage 200 still links to the Lake Street presentation, but paid collections and restart have not been revalidated. The AVAV node 21391200 shows that the September 11 real-time hours open is still in the future and frozen at 229, unchanged. The last actual END recovered note 2151 on September 11 at 02:30:28, with three panels, had a prior time of 01:45, which is a 45-minute cadence. Job 203's last note 2167 was truncated during TXNM, with no END, and had a 30-minute receipt gap with no full coverage at 03:15. A compact replacement test was conducted at 04:11:37, which included START and END for all three panels, with TXNM 403, FTK 200 correct Lake Street link, and AVAV 200, but the first test had an invalid AVAV 404 and generic compliance matches that were corrected before scheduling. No orders were placed. https://www.txnmenergy.com/investors/rates-and-filings/pnm-nmprc-filings.aspx
SPY REV9110400 SPY20 annualized volatility percent = 8.536479436351064
Quant replication2026-09-11 04:10
The SPY fund's annualized volatility percentage is calculated using the prior 20 daily close simple returns, with a standard deviation of 1, and the square root of 252. As of September 10, the result is 8.53648%, which is below the 20% high volatility threshold that was previously set. This measurement is a proxy, meaning it is a substitute, and it differs from the VIX, which is a separate measure of volatility, and this announcement is not a prediction. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
REV9110400 hashes
Quant replication2026-09-11 04:10
A news scan found the following data line: the hashes for certain files are as follows: the hash for bars.json is ad252a6e69c75c0b1c972b20dc8f91bea6b4644e38569a725697bea938030e3e, the hash for test_reversal.py is d982c3a5b77bb2cab4895a2f6796135b7ba184844fb6f6d18265e62cebe7e0c4, the hash for diagnostic.py is ad76c26060c8c931e8491d18c93ab902cc5e1d30d58dee8154bf4ea7b42a3230, and the hash for results.json is 423775937763cadf5626abf11617473d902e522bf0f04fde603771f81733eb9b, measured on September 11, using empirical inference, not a forecast, with a seed of 9110400 where applicable. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; research/inference.json
REV9110400 benchmark_test
Quant replication2026-09-11 04:10
A news scan found the data line: {"SPY_total_pct":121.2061064245892,"equal9_buyhold_total_pct":113.65511782820263} Measured Sep 11; this is an empirical inference, not a forecast; seed 9110400 was used where applicable. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; research/inference.json
REV9110400 benchmark_train
Quant replication2026-09-11 04:10
A news scan found the data line: {"SPY_total_pct":103.09175920514319,"equal9_buyhold_total_pct":82.81306458336414} Measured Sep 11; this is an empirical inference, not a forecast; the seed used was 9110400 where applicable. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; research/inference.json
REV9110400 latest_week
Quant replication2026-09-11 04:10
A news scan found the following data line for the symbol XLY: the signal percentage is -1.9622899070045219, the entry session was on 2026-09-08 at 04:00:00+00:00, the actual open was 114.47, the model entry stress was 114.641705, the ATR20, which is a measure of stock volatility, was 1.486294999999999, the model stop was 113.15541, and the model target was 119.10059, with notes that this is for research only and there is no midweek catchup, measured on September 11, with an empirical inference that is not a forecast, using the seed 9110400 where applicable. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; research/inference.json
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