BIL QMER90604 passive train = 4.961622807017685
Quant replication2026-09-06 04:15
Measured Sep6 2026 from paginated SIP daily bars. Training available2016-2021; later2022-Aug2026; currentlevelsSep4. Costs/assumptions perprotocolnote294. Complete numeric row: {"symbol":"BIL","period":"train","n":1508,"return_pct":4.961622807017685,"cagr_pct":0.8125004723848805,"vol_pct":0.2422615257167712,"drawdown_pct":0.18248175182484783,"correlation_SPY":0.0005245455347697881,"skew":-0.07164812101459662,"worst_day_pct":-0.05476451259585069}
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
SPY QMER90604 passive train = 164.06665484843072
Quant replication2026-09-06 04:15
Measured Sep6 2026 from paginated SIP daily bars. Training available2016-2021; later2022-Aug2026; currentlevelsSep4. Costs/assumptions perprotocolnote294. Complete numeric row: {"symbol":"SPY","period":"train","n":1508,"return_pct":164.06665484843072,"cagr_pct":17.61752270443273,"vol_pct":17.571398226841932,"drawdown_pct":33.793819113402726,"correlation_SPY":1,"skew":-0.8645356230564905,"worst_day_pct":-10.784472957609225}
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
MRGR QMER90604 passive train = 17.446941323345722
Quant replication2026-09-06 04:15
Measured Sep6 2026 from paginated SIP daily bars. Training available2016-2021; later2022-Aug2026; currentlevelsSep4. Costs/assumptions perprotocolnote294. Complete numeric row: {"symbol":"MRGR","period":"train","n":1508,"return_pct":17.446941323345722,"cagr_pct":2.7238200155865977,"vol_pct":5.639154010231289,"drawdown_pct":13.321947053800177,"correlation_SPY":0.29358869065365883,"skew":-0.9996088270237703,"worst_day_pct":-4.003783102143754}
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
MNA QMER90604 passive train = 17.949666913397277
Quant replication2026-09-06 04:15
Measured Sep6 2026 from paginated SIP daily bars. Training available2016-2021; later2022-Aug2026; currentlevelsSep4. Costs/assumptions perprotocolnote294. Complete numeric row: {"symbol":"MNA","period":"train","n":1508,"return_pct":17.949666913397277,"cagr_pct":2.797167768155129,"vol_pct":7.384371296933212,"drawdown_pct":16.651191581553746,"correlation_SPY":0.5356653807462047,"skew":-2.7788580752926957,"worst_day_pct":-7.393397524071521}
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
MNA QMER90604 backtest MNA_2022-01-01_20_0.0002 = -0.23831684785757812
Quant replication2026-09-06 04:15
Measured Sep6 2026 from paginated SIP daily bars. Training available2016-2021; later2022-Aug2026; currentlevelsSep4. Costs/assumptions perprotocolnote294. Complete numeric row: {"key":"MNA_2022-01-01_20_0.0002","symbol":"MNA","start":"2022-01-01","end":"2026-08-31","hold":20,"fee":0,"slippage":0.0002,"sample":19,"return_pct":-0.23831684785757812,"drawdown_pct":3.200372454757139,"staged_drawdown_pct":3.4171342566818863,"win_rate_pct":42.10526315789473,"avg_win_pct":0.8143261809950147,"avg_loss_pct":0.6094134015756546,"mean_pct":-0.009944103651162248,"quarter_kelly":0}
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
MNA QMER90604 backtest MNA_2022-01-01_20_0.0050 = -16.871881214380625
Quant replication2026-09-06 04:15
Measured Sep6 2026 from paginated SIP daily bars. Training available2016-2021; later2022-Aug2026; currentlevelsSep4. Costs/assumptions perprotocolnote294. Complete numeric row: {"key":"MNA_2022-01-01_20_0.0050","symbol":"MNA","start":"2022-01-01","end":"2026-08-31","hold":20,"fee":0.0005,"slippage":0.0045,"sample":19,"return_pct":-16.871881214380625,"drawdown_pct":16.87188121438068,"staged_drawdown_pct":16.560810881768827,"win_rate_pct":10.526315789473683,"avg_win_pct":0.11545375774978384,"avg_loss_pct":1.0924048419489285,"mean_pct":-0.9652618314543273,"quarter_kelly":0}
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
MNA QMER90604 backtest MNA_2022-01-01_20_0.0015 = -5.0467980576139215
Quant replication2026-09-06 04:15
Measured Sep6 2026 from paginated SIP daily bars. Training available2016-2021; later2022-Aug2026; currentlevelsSep4. Costs/assumptions perprotocolnote294. Complete numeric row: {"key":"MNA_2022-01-01_20_0.0015","symbol":"MNA","start":"2022-01-01","end":"2026-08-31","hold":20,"fee":0.0005,"slippage":0.001,"sample":19,"return_pct":-5.0467980576139215,"drawdown_pct":5.046798057614065,"staged_drawdown_pct":5.023563009098786,"win_rate_pct":42.10526315789473,"avg_win_pct":0.552549315341852,"avg_loss_pct":0.8674933513285611,"mean_pct":-0.26958064957259775,"quarter_kelly":0}
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
MNA QMER90604 backtest MNA_2015-01-01_40_0.0015 = 2.3453730126372863
Quant replication2026-09-06 04:15
Measured Sep6 2026 from paginated SIP daily bars. Training available2016-2021; later2022-Aug2026; currentlevelsSep4. Costs/assumptions perprotocolnote294. Complete numeric row: {"key":"MNA_2015-01-01_40_0.0015","symbol":"MNA","start":"2015-01-01","end":"2021-12-31","hold":40,"fee":0.0005,"slippage":0.001,"sample":23,"return_pct":2.3453730126372863,"drawdown_pct":8.295254489479342,"staged_drawdown_pct":8.381013291390682,"win_rate_pct":43.47826086956522,"avg_win_pct":1.3321831437321352,"avg_loss_pct":0.8220734272635597,"mean_pct":0.11455986447369898,"quarter_kelly":0.021498520119530518}
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
MNA QMER90604 backtest MNA_2015-01-01_20_0.0015 = 1.1617603971723511
Quant replication2026-09-06 04:15
Measured Sep6 2026 from paginated SIP daily bars. Training available2016-2021; later2022-Aug2026; currentlevelsSep4. Costs/assumptions perprotocolnote294. Complete numeric row: {"key":"MNA_2015-01-01_20_0.0015","symbol":"MNA","start":"2015-01-01","end":"2021-12-31","hold":20,"fee":0.0005,"slippage":0.001,"sample":23,"return_pct":1.1617603971723511,"drawdown_pct":8.295254489479342,"staged_drawdown_pct":8.381013291390682,"win_rate_pct":43.47826086956522,"avg_win_pct":1.2082996605396468,"avg_loss_pct":0.8220734272635597,"mean_pct":0.060697480476964875,"quarter_kelly":0.012558449377089179}
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
MNA QMER90604 backtest MNA_2015-01-01_10_0.0015 = -0.9084287001263958
Quant replication2026-09-06 04:15
Measured Sep6 2026 from paginated SIP daily bars. Training available2016-2021; later2022-Aug2026; currentlevelsSep4. Costs/assumptions perprotocolnote294. Complete numeric row: {"key":"MNA_2015-01-01_10_0.0015","symbol":"MNA","start":"2015-01-01","end":"2021-12-31","hold":10,"fee":0.0005,"slippage":0.001,"sample":23,"return_pct":-0.9084287001263958,"drawdown_pct":8.295254489479342,"staged_drawdown_pct":8.381013291390682,"win_rate_pct":43.47826086956522,"avg_win_pct":0.9956131090100139,"avg_loss_pct":0.8220734272635597,"mean_pct":-0.03177493323157112,"quarter_kelly":0}
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
MRGR QMER90604 backtest MRGR_2022-01-01_20_0.0002 = -1.3175289334322438
Quant replication2026-09-06 04:15
Measured Sep6 2026 from paginated SIP daily bars. Training available2016-2021; later2022-Aug2026; currentlevelsSep4. Costs/assumptions perprotocolnote294. Complete numeric row: {"key":"MRGR_2022-01-01_20_0.0002","symbol":"MRGR","start":"2022-01-01","end":"2026-08-31","hold":20,"fee":0,"slippage":0.0002,"sample":19,"return_pct":-1.3175289334322438,"drawdown_pct":2.440859719960231,"staged_drawdown_pct":2.653801007037282,"win_rate_pct":47.368421052631575,"avg_win_pct":0.40004157195791595,"avg_loss_pct":0.490592937410197,"mean_pct":-0.06871343297266977,"quarter_kelly":0}
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
MRGR QMER90604 backtest MRGR_2022-01-01_20_0.0050 = -17.771153035082587
Quant replication2026-09-06 04:15
Measured Sep6 2026 from paginated SIP daily bars. Training available2016-2021; later2022-Aug2026; currentlevelsSep4. Costs/assumptions perprotocolnote294. Complete numeric row: {"key":"MRGR_2022-01-01_20_0.0050","symbol":"MRGR","start":"2022-01-01","end":"2026-08-31","hold":20,"fee":0.0005,"slippage":0.0045,"sample":19,"return_pct":-17.771153035082587,"drawdown_pct":17.923698971732904,"staged_drawdown_pct":17.70963406671041,"win_rate_pct":0,"avg_win_pct":0,"avg_loss_pct":1.0234696711191973,"mean_pct":-1.0234696711191973,"quarter_kelly":0}
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
MRGR QMER90604 backtest MRGR_2022-01-01_20_0.0015 = -6.073992465951572
Quant replication2026-09-06 04:15
Measured Sep6 2026 from paginated SIP daily bars. Training available2016-2021; later2022-Aug2026; currentlevelsSep4. Costs/assumptions perprotocolnote294. Complete numeric row: {"key":"MRGR_2022-01-01_20_0.0015","symbol":"MRGR","start":"2022-01-01","end":"2026-08-31","hold":20,"fee":0.0005,"slippage":0.001,"sample":19,"return_pct":-6.073992465951572,"drawdown_pct":6.780273869221087,"staged_drawdown_pct":6.862800110862944,"win_rate_pct":42.10526315789473,"avg_win_pct":0.16208971106245196,"avg_loss_pct":0.6847698047897512,"mean_pct":-0.3281973770625078,"quarter_kelly":0}
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
MRGR QMER90604 backtest MRGR_2015-01-01_40_0.0015 = -5.63365870356135
Quant replication2026-09-06 04:15
Measured Sep6 2026 from paginated SIP daily bars. Training available2016-2021; later2022-Aug2026; currentlevelsSep4. Costs/assumptions perprotocolnote294. Complete numeric row: {"key":"MRGR_2015-01-01_40_0.0015","symbol":"MRGR","start":"2015-01-01","end":"2021-12-31","hold":40,"fee":0.0005,"slippage":0.001,"sample":23,"return_pct":-5.63365870356135,"drawdown_pct":7.168442262093322,"staged_drawdown_pct":7.168442262093288,"win_rate_pct":21.73913043478261,"avg_win_pct":0.7033455960682122,"avg_loss_pct":0.5139855585647625,"mean_pct":-0.24934835103585493,"quarter_kelly":0}
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
MRGR QMER90604 backtest MRGR_2015-01-01_20_0.0015 = -5.63365870356135
Quant replication2026-09-06 04:15
Measured Sep6 2026 from paginated SIP daily bars. Training available2016-2021; later2022-Aug2026; currentlevelsSep4. Costs/assumptions perprotocolnote294. Complete numeric row: {"key":"MRGR_2015-01-01_20_0.0015","symbol":"MRGR","start":"2015-01-01","end":"2021-12-31","hold":20,"fee":0.0005,"slippage":0.001,"sample":23,"return_pct":-5.63365870356135,"drawdown_pct":7.168442262093322,"staged_drawdown_pct":7.168442262093288,"win_rate_pct":21.73913043478261,"avg_win_pct":0.7033455960682122,"avg_loss_pct":0.5139855585647625,"mean_pct":-0.24934835103585493,"quarter_kelly":0}
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
MRGR QMER90604 backtest MRGR_2015-01-01_10_0.0015 = -5.329798907931393
Quant replication2026-09-06 04:15
Measured Sep6 2026 from paginated SIP daily bars. Training available2016-2021; later2022-Aug2026; currentlevelsSep4. Costs/assumptions perprotocolnote294. Complete numeric row: {"key":"MRGR_2015-01-01_10_0.0015","symbol":"MRGR","start":"2015-01-01","end":"2021-12-31","hold":10,"fee":0.0005,"slippage":0.001,"sample":23,"return_pct":-5.329798907931393,"drawdown_pct":6.78447644299689,"staged_drawdown_pct":6.78447644299689,"win_rate_pct":21.73913043478261,"avg_win_pct":0.6838504845959381,"avg_loss_pct":0.49115775342405843,"mean_pct":-0.23572117994145048,"quarter_kelly":0}
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
TXNM unwind bridge loan interest rate percent as of August25 = 5.01
Quant replication2026-09-06 04:14
Issuer Aug31 preliminary prospectus UseofProceeds:400m borrowedJuly22 andpaidtoPIPEpurchaser;400moutstandingAug25at5.01%weightedaverageinterest. LaterSep2offeringclosed396mnet(intendedrepayment),so donotprojectfullloaninterestindefinitely. Conditionalfullbalanceannualinterest20.04m;30dayactual/365 illustration1.64712m,notreportedexpense.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1108426/000110842626000053/a08312026txnm424b5.htm
TXNM July2 final order does not require immediate merger refiling
Quant replication2026-09-06 04:07
Regulator operativeorder pp35-39:PIPEvoid; meritsnotadjudicated,immediaterefilingnotrequired. Latercompliancereviewmayrequireamendment/suspension/newapplication. Shareholderborneunwind/financingcostscannotbechargedtoratepayerswithoutexpressfutureauthorization. Strongcounterexampletoequatingviolationwithcertainmergerfailure;socialJunecommentsmaydescribeearlierrecommendation.
https://www.txnmenergy.com/~/media/Files/P/PNM-Resources/rates-and-filings/2025%20Blackstone%20Infrastructure/PNM/FINAL%20ORDER%20ON%20SHOW%20CAUSE%20PROCEEDING.pdf
TXNM replacement public offering shares closed September2 = 7079646
Quant replication2026-09-06 04:07
Primary issuer Sep2 2026 8-K reports offeringclosedSep2,netproceeds~396m,underwriterpurchase55.935/share;Aug31publicprice56.50 perex99.2. Intendedrepayment400mloan. Financing iscompletedoffering,notmerelyproposal; netproceeds~4mbelowloanprincipal beforeothercash. DoesnotresolveNMPRCmerits. Original8mPIPEunwind vsnew7.079646mshares mustnetbeforeclaimingincrementaldilution.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1108426/000110842626000058/pnm-20260902.htm
TXNM CURRENT conditional parent termination fee USD million = 175
Quant replication2026-09-06 04:06
Critical amendment July17 2026 8-K item1.01: TXNM waived175m of original350m fee; currentconditionalfee175m. Supersedes original-proxy350m historicalfigure in observation5193 forcurrentanalysis. Parties waive EndDate terminationuntilMay31 2027 and knownpriorbreaches;400mloanrepaysPIPE,shareissuanceconsent>=50USD. Feepaidcompany not shareholdersdirectly. Originalproxy stale onfee.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/81023/000110842626000042/pnm-20260717.htm
definitive agreement caveat in crash cancellation research
Quant replication2026-09-06 04:04
Authors Feb24 2020 summary: cashdeals morethantwiceascancelled during sharpmarketfalls, but no effect forstockdeals orcashdeals with definitiveagreement. Prevents applyingunconditionalcrashcancellation statistictoTXNM signeddeal; repricing/liquidityrisk canremain.
https://www.aqr.com/Insights/Research/Working-Paper/Market-Crashes-and-Merger-Completions
Mitchell Pulvino historical merger sample = 4750
Quant replication2026-09-06 04:04
Authors JournalofFinance Dec2001 paper,1963-1998. Cost-aware index manager starts dayafter announcement,includesfaileddeals and liquidity/diversification;estimated4%annual excess afternonlinear riskadjustment,not currentforecast. Down-market positivebeta; no claim20dayATRexit ispaper rule.
https://bpb-us-w2.wpmucdn.com/voices.uchicago.edu/dist/d/2771/files/2020/09/JF_riskarb-1.pdf
MNA index maximum deal age days = 360
Quant replication2026-09-06 04:04
Indexprovider methodology accessedSep6 2026; reevaluate after180days, remove at360days,negative spread/momentum or insufficientcarry;target max7.5%weight. Current methodology not proven unchanged throughout history; ETF returns inherently reflect actual historicalimplementation.
https://www.newyorklifeinvestments.com/assets/documents/index-nyli/index-nyli-merger-arbitrage-index-methodology.pdf
MRGR issuer 30day median bid ask spread percent = 0.13
Quant replication2026-09-06 04:04
ETF sponsor asofSep4 2026: market45.48,NAV45.60,netassets15.959374m,41holdings asofJul31,net expense.75% gross2.21%. Marketing source; medianquote not executable currentquote. Underlying S&P index systemic merger risk, ETF longholding possiblecash-only despite internalhedges.
https://www.proshares.com/our-etfs/strategic/mrgr
TXNM 2026 quarterly dividend ceiling USD = 0.4275
Quant replication2026-09-06 04:04
Issuer July21 2025 definitive proxy p104 printed (PDFp110) permits regular dividends up to.4275 in2026 plus stubperiod terms. Ceiling not declaration;2027amount requires amendment check. Conditional reverse termination fee350m payablecompany, not holder put.
https://www.txnmenergy.com/~/media/Files/P/PNM-Resources/Definitive%20Proxy%207212025.pdf