Runway

Notes

10327 observations, newest first
XLB QTR9090000 reversal input census and current liquidity proxy = 2685
Quant replication2026-09-09 00:08
A data scan found the following information: as of September 9, 00:03 UTC, the XLB data included 2685 bars, with the first bar on January 4, 2016, at 05:00:00 UTC and the last bar on September 8, 2026, at 04:00:00 UTC. The close price was 51.94, the average volume over 20 days was 10,803,172.05, and the dollar volume proxy over 20 days was 569,978,277.76. The range over 20 days was 0.705. Each symbol had 2685 aligned sessions, with no duplicate timestamps and valid positive open, high, low, and close, or OHLC, checks, which are used to verify the quality of the data. The data provider started in January 2016, even though the request was for November 2015, and the 2016 warm-up period was omitted. The data included all common calendar days, but did not account for independent New York Stock Exchange, or NYSE, holidays. The data also included adjusted open, high, low, and close research coordinates, and a dollar volume proxy, which is a close price multiplied by volume, not the actual volume-weighted average price, or VWAP, or the national best bid and offer, or NBBO, and no executable quote was inferred. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=XLB&timeframe=1Day&start=2015-11-01T00:00:00Z&end=2026-09-08T23:40:00Z&feed=sip&adjustment=all
QTR9090000 actual book and own-trade calibration limits = 0
Quant replication2026-09-09 00:07
A fresh query of closed IDs for 9SNOW, 7DELL, and 1GTLB found no open, pending, or closing trades. There were three operator liquidations, with one win and two losses, but these were not due to stop or target outcomes. The context includes a quant cash value of $245.69, with no amount deployed, an equity value of $850.99, a maximum position of $212.7475, and a risk value of $8.5099, along with a month gap of $349.01. Since there are no holdings, there is no progress or time-in-holding to report, and no stop reset applies. Additionally, there are no invented bear-case positions. The quote benchmark and order-session slippage, which refers to the difference between expected and actual trade prices, cannot be identified from the entry and exit ledger alone. These three censored outcomes, meaning the actual results are not fully known, cannot be used to estimate the intended 4-6 week PEAD payoff, which is a measure of the potential return on investment over a specific period. runway query_trades fund=quant; supplied 2026-09-09T00:00 account context
INBX QTR9090000 financial constraints on clinical narrative = 219.5
Quant replication2026-09-09 00:06
A financial release from the direct issuer of INBX, dated August 13, was retrieved on September 9 at 00:05 UTC. As of June 30, the company had 133.3 million in cash, and by July 15, it had received an additional 100 million from Oxford, bringing the cash total to 219.5 million by August 6. The company reported zero revenue in the second quarter, with research and development expenses of 23.9 million, compared to 22.3 million in the previous period, and general and administrative expenses of 8.3 million, compared to 6.4 million. Other expenses were 4.5 million, compared to 1.3 million, resulting in a net loss of 36.7 million, compared to 28.7 million. The loan balance of 175 million was recorded before the additional funding in July. Expenses included costs for trial, manufacturing, and pre-commercial activities for INBRX109, and it is not possible to attribute the entire cash burn to INBRX106. These figures are based on the issuer's reports and do not reflect the current cash or debt situation as of September, nor a full valuation of the company's covenants. No stock edge is inferred from this information. https://inhibrx.investorroom.com/2026-08-13-Inhibrx-Reports-Second-Quarter-2026-Financial-Results
QTR9090000 Nagel replication boundary = 5
Quant replication2026-09-09 00:06
A research paper from December 2011 was reviewed, particularly sections 2.4 and 3. The original study used data from the CRSP NYSE/AMEX/Nasdaq, which is a database of stock prices, and created five daily contrarian sleeves, meaning it bought and sold stocks in a specific way, with $1 long and $1 short, and a conditional market beta hedge, which is a way to reduce risk. The study also used 48 industry portfolios. The transaction-price case assumed that a representative liquidity supplier, which is an entity that provides liquidity to a market, always filled closing quotes, and alternative quote midpoints were considered. The paper noted that the industry return was lower and that there were fixed costs associated with high-speed access and placement. The study focused on conditional variation with the VIX, which is a measure of stock market volatility, rather than the unconditional attainable level. A test was conducted using 9 ETFs, which are exchange-traded funds, with a weekly long-only range-exit strategy, but it was not an exact replication of the original study and was labelled as a separate adaptation. The original study was written by an author from the NBER, which is the National Bureau of Economic Research, and there were no independent confirmations of the results. https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w17653/w17653.pdf
INBX QTR9090000 full primary release population and bear-case omissions = 63
Quant replication2026-09-09 00:05
A news scan found the headline about the INBX QTR9090000 full primary release population and bear-case omissions. The release is based on direct requests retrieved on September 9 at 00:02 UTC 200, following the issuer's release on September 8 with an August 19 cutoff. The study included 68 randomized participants, with 63 being evaluable, and consisted of a combination of 29 participants with 10 HPV+ and a control group of 34 participants with 9 HPV+. The overall response rate was 48.3% and 26.5%, with a complete response rate of 4 and 0. The median progression-free survival was 9.6 and 4.9 months, which is still maturing. For the HPV+ subgroup, the overall response rate was 80% and 33.3%, with 10 and 9 participants. The expansion of approximately 50 HPV+ OPSCC with a CPS of >=1 differs from the original HNSCC with a CPS of >=20. The safety profile was described as manageable, with rash, fatigue, and diarrhea being predominantly low-grade, but this release does not include a numerical grade of >=3 or a discontinuation table. The release does not provide p-values or confidence intervals, and five randomized participants were omitted from the evaluable denominator without allocation details. Plans to align with the FDA after expansion are not an agreement or approval. Initial results for NSCLC are targeted for mid-2027. The source is a sponsor promotional release, which is closest to the trial but unaudited topline, and no independent corroboration is implied. The listing still leads with the same September 8 release. https://inhibrx.investorroom.com/2026-09-08-Inhibrxs-INBRX-106-Nearly-Doubles-Response-Rate-and-Achieves-Interim-Median-PFS-of-9-6-months-in-Phase-2-HNSCC-Study
INBX QTR9090000 Sep8 daily vintage recheck = 114.34
Quant replication2026-09-09 00:04
A news scan found the headline 'INBX QTR9090000 Sep8 daily vintage recheck'. Retrieved on September 9 at 00:02 UTC, the INBX close on September 8 was 114.34, which was unchanged, with an open of 117.22, a high of 120.1825, and a low of 94.0001. The volume was 1,674,071, which is an increase of 57,225 from the previous 21 UTC volume of 1,616,846, and the trade count was 29,332, which is an increase of 63 from the previous 29,269. The close on Friday was 121.17. The SPY close was 765.96, which was unchanged, with a volume of 44,820,585. Both JSON vintages were kept locally, and earlier observations of 15,965 and 15,963 preserved the original data. The exact 00 UTC end request was 403, and the 23:40 cutoff was 200, which means the delayed historical entitlement differs from recent access. The provider's daily data is not official auction data. No price revision was observed, but the volume was revised. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=INBX%2CSPY&feed=sip&timeframe=1Day&start=2026-09-04T00%3A00%3A00Z&end=2026-09-08T23%3A40%3A00Z&adjustment=raw&limit=1000
QTR9082100 ledger frozen edge and actual collector completion = 0
Quant replication2026-09-08 21:02
A news scan found the headline 'QTR9082100 ledger frozen edge and actual collector completion'. The report states that on 9/7/1, all operator liquidation was completed with no open, pending, or closing positions. The supplied cash was $245.69, the account balance was $850.99, the capital was $212.7475, and the risk was $8.5099. The baseline return was -20.2239270789%, with a drawdown of 30.9846671747% and 59 trades, of which 47.457627% were winners and 1.760979087% were losers, with a mean return of -0.356488299%. Under stress conditions, the return was -33.16523952%, with a drawdown of 38.31988528% and 59 trades, of which 44.067797% were winners, with a mean return of -0.654971408%. The Python rounded baseline expectancy was -0.356488085% and the raw quarter Kelly was -0.05060936, with a floor of 0. The report also mentions that job 103 was completed with 0 remaining, and a 20:30 actual 329 bar summary was saved at 21 UTC. Additionally, job 84 was active with 39 remaining, and job 85 was active with 26 remaining. The report notes that there were three prior trades, but the operator details are censored and there was no planned exit calibration. No new backtest was conducted. runway query_research/query_trades/list_jobs fund=quant; backtests1139/1142; notes1206/1213
INBX QTR9082100 issuer readout recheck
Quant replication2026-09-08 21:02
A news scan found the headline 'INBX QTR9082100 issuer readout recheck'. On September 8, at 21:02 UTC, the listing still showed the September 8 readout, the September 4 call notice, and the August 13 financial results. This is a limited listing and there is no proof that everything is included. The information comes from the sponsor, which is promoting the data, and it was last updated on August 19. The data includes 68 randomized and 63 evaluable results, with 29 in the combination group and 34 in the control group. The overall response rate was 48.3% and 26.5%, and the progression-free survival was 9.6 and 4.9 months, which is still maturing. There are plans for a 50 HPV+ expansion and future FDA alignment, but these are just plans and not approval or cash flow. The information comes from the same source as the syndication, and there is no independent confirmation. https://inhibrx.investorroom.com/news-releases ; https://inhibrx.investorroom.com/2026-09-08-Inhibrxs-INBRX-106-Nearly-Doubles-Response-Rate-and-Achieves-Interim-Median-PFS-of-9-6-months-in-Phase-2-HNSCC-Study
QTR9082100 sip baseline and access = 403
Quant replication2026-09-08 21:02
On September 8, at approximately 21:02 UTC, a data request was made. The response from the provider was that access was forbidden, with a status code of 403. The provider's message was that the current subscription does not allow for querying recent Systematic Investment Plan, or SIP, data. The daily bar data provided is an aggregate from the provider, not officially verified and may not reflect the actual auction. Additionally, the quotes and trades are not happening at the same time, and the data is from one venue, the Investors Exchange, or IEX, without any inference to the National Best Bid and Offer, or NBBO. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-snapshots?symbols=INBX%2CSPY&feed=sip
QTR9082100 iex baseline and access
Quant replication2026-09-08 21:02
A news scan found the raw provider response from September 8 at approximately 21:02 UTC. The response included data for the symbols INBX and SPY from the iex feed. For SPY, the daily bar closed at 766.06, with a high of 769.69 and a low of 765.17, and the latest quote had a bid price of 746.01. For INBX, the daily bar closed at 114.54, with a high of 118.04 and a low of 94.56, and the latest quote had an ask price of 134.6. The daily bar is an aggregate from the provider and not an official auction result, quotes and trades are asynchronous, and the data is from the IEX venue, with no National Best Bid and Offer inference. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-snapshots?symbols=INBX%2CSPY&feed=iex
QTR9082100 daily baseline and access
Quant replication2026-09-08 21:02
A news scan found the raw provider response from September 8 at approximately 21:02 UTC. The response included data for stock symbols INBX and SPY. For INBX, the data showed a closing price of 121.17 on September 4 and 114.34 on September 8. For SPY, the data showed a closing price of 770.19 on September 4 and 765.96 on September 8. The daily bar data is an aggregate provided by the vendor and has not been independently verified as an official auction result. The quotes and trades are asynchronous, meaning they do not happen at the same time. The data is from the IEX venue and does not imply the National Best Bid and Offer, which is a term that refers to the best available price to buy or sell a security across all trading venues. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=INBX%2CSPY&feed=sip&timeframe=1Day&start=2026-09-04T00%3A00%3A00Z&end=2026-09-08T20%3A30%3A00Z&adjustment=raw&limit=1000
SPY QTR9082100 completed regular-session returned minute path = 765.94
Quant replication2026-09-08 21:02
A news scan found the data line for SPY QTR9082100, which is a type of investment fund, completed on September 8. The data was retrieved at approximately 21:02 UTC. The requested time range was from 13:30 to 20:00 UTC, and the data was filtered to only include times before 20:00. The data did not include any filled-in missing bars, and any missing minutes may be due to sparse trading or gaps in the data provider, but the cause is not known. The data included the following information: there were 390 data points, no missing data points were found, the last time stamp was 19:59:00 on September 8, 2026, the last price was 765.94, the first open price was 769.06, the low price was 765.14, the high price was 769.7, the volume was 32,427,793, the percentage change from the open was -0.4057, the percentage change from the low was 0.1046, and the close path drawdown percentage was 0.5031. A drawdown is a measure of the decrease in value of an investment. The percentage change from Friday was not available. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=INBX%2CSPY&feed=sip&timeframe=1Min&start=2026-09-08T13%3A30%3A00Z&end=2026-09-08T20%3A00%3A00Z&adjustment=raw&limit=10000
INBX QTR9082100 completed regular-session returned minute path = 114.68
Quant replication2026-09-08 21:02
A news scan found the headline 'INBX QTR9082100 completed regular-session returned minute path'. Retrieved on September 8 at approximately 21:02 UTC, the report covers the time period from 13:30 to 20:00 UTC. The data is filtered to only include times strictly before 20:00 UTC, with no pagination. Some minutes are missing from the data, which could be due to sparse trading or gaps in the data provided, but the cause is unknown. The report includes the following details: there are 329 data points, with 43 minutes missing, including 14:07, 14:21, 15:19, 16:02, and others. The last time recorded is 2026-09-08 19:59:00+00:00, with a last price of 114.68, a first open of 117.22, a low of 94.0001, and a high of 120.1825. The volume is 1,434,084, with a percentage change from the open of -2.1669%, a percentage change from the low of 21.9999%, and a close path drawdown percentage of 19.6290%. The percentage change from Friday is -5.3561%. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=INBX%2CSPY&feed=sip&timeframe=1Min&start=2026-09-08T13%3A30%3A00Z&end=2026-09-08T20%3A00%3A00Z&adjustment=raw&limit=10000
INBX QTR9081940 closing collector local test = 117.51
Quant replication2026-09-08 19:44
A news scan found the headline 'Sep8 19:42:39 localtest ofjob103 script exit0'. This is a data line showing the results of a test of a script, which is a set of instructions for a computer, in this case for a trading system. The test started at 19:26:39 and collected 300 pieces of data, called bars, with the first one at 13:30 having an opening price of 117.22, a closing price of 117.53, a high price of 117.53, and a low price of 114.06, with a volume of 17080 and a number of trades of 218. The last bar had an opening price of 117.51, a high price of 117.51, a low price of 116.88, and a closing price of 117.51, with a volume of 4910 and a number of trades of 78. The session, which is a period of trading, had a low price of 94.0001 and a high price of 120.1825, with a total volume of 1283119. A quote, which is an offer to buy or sell, from the IEX exchange at 19:42:22 was 114.73 to buy and 131.10 to sell, with sizes of 100 each. A trade, which is an exchange of a security for money, was made at 19:37:40 at a price of 115.42 for a size of 100. This test proves that the script produces the correct output, but it does not test if the script will run automatically. The job, which is a task, was accepted at 19:44:05 and will run for 30 minutes, three times, with a cutoff time of 21 UTC, and will be monitored at 89 and reviewed at 21 UTC. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-snapshots?feed=iex
INBX QTR9081940 issuer notice recheck
Quant replication2026-09-08 19:43
A news scan found the issuer notice for INBX, which was last updated on September 8 at 19:42 UTC. The latest listing remains the same as the September 8 readout, which followed a webcast on September 4 and results on August 13. This listing is not a complete proof that there is no other news. The sponsor released direct information with promotional framing, which included results from a study with a cutoff date of August 19, involving 68 randomized patients, 63 of whom were evaluable, with 29 in a combination group and 34 in a control group. The overall response rate was 48.3% versus 26.5%, and the progression-free survival was 9.6 months versus 4.9 months, but these results are still maturing. There are plans to expand the study to include approximately 50 patients with HPV+, and the company is working on alignment with the FDA for future plans, but this does not mean approval. The information comes from the same source as the company's deck and news syndication, and is not independent confirmation. The clinical edge for the stock remains unvalidated. https://inhibrx.investorroom.com/news-releases ; https://inhibrx.investorroom.com/2026-09-08-Inhibrxs-INBRX-106-Nearly-Doubles-Response-Rate-and-Achieves-Interim-Median-PFS-of-9-6-months-in-Phase-2-HNSCC-Study
QTR9081940 ledger, collectors and frozen expectancy = 0
Quant replication2026-09-08 19:43
On September 8 at 19:41, a query closed three positions: SNOW9, DELL7, and GTLB1, which were all liquidated by the operator. There were no open, pending, or closing positions. The Quantcash account had $245.69 and the total account value was $850.99. The position cap was $212.75 and the risk was 8.51%. The frozen managed out-of-sample return was -20.22%, the maximum drawdown was 30.98%, and there were 59 trades with 28 wins and 31 losses, and a win rate of 1.76% and a loss rate of 2.27%. All 18 variants had negative results. The Python expectancy was -0.36% and the raw quarter Kelly was -0.05%. The latest job run at 19:00 had 2 remaining tasks and was scheduled to run again at 19:30, but this run was unverified. The script cutoff was 19:40, so any executions after this time would not capture the close. The latest data from 19:00 included 3 complete issuer rows and 42 remaining rows. Additionally, 85 headlines from 16:30 were partially processed, with 27 remaining, and 15 headlines from 02:30 had no eligible entries. There were no new backtests run. runway query_trades/query_research/list_jobs fund=quant; saved analyses1172/1198/1220
INBX QTR9081940 full returned delayed session path = 117.61
Quant replication2026-09-08 19:43
A news scan found the data line for INBX QTR9081940 full returned delayed session path. The data shows 299 entries, but 56 times are missing through the last entry at 19:24, and 57 times are missing through the requested time of 19:25, including the trailing time of 19:25, with no fill-forward. The missing entries may be due to no eligible trades or provider issues, but the cause is unknown. The first-minute open was 117.22, which is not authenticated by an auction, and the raw SIP, or Securities Information Processor, was delayed and did not provide executable fills. The last entry was at 19:24 with a price of 117.61, and the low and high prices were 94.0001 and 120.1825, respectively. The volume was 1278209, and the percentage change from the open was 0.3327, from the low was 25.117, and the close path drawdown percentage was 19.629. The percentage change from Friday was -2.938. The data was retrieved at 19:41:58 UTC on September 8, 2026. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=INBX%2CSPY&feed=sip&timeframe=1Min&start=2026-09-08T13%3A30%3A00Z&end=2026-09-08T19%3A25%3A58.675123%2B00%3A00&adjustment=raw&limit=10000
INBX QTR9081940 fresh IEX snapshots and SIP access = 16.37
Quant replication2026-09-08 19:42
A news scan found the headline 'INBX QTR9081940 fresh IEX snapshots and SIP access'. The INBX daily bar closed at 115.42, with a high of 118.04, a low of 94.56, 1088 trades, an open of 115.61, at 2026-09-08T04:00:00Z, with a volume of 63926 and a volume-weighted average price of 107.591082. The latest quote had an ask price of 131.1, an ask size of 100, an exchange of V, a bid price of 114.73, a bid size of 100, an exchange of V, conditions of R, at 2026-09-08T19:41:32.448366543Z, with a tape of C. The latest trade had a price of 115.42, a size of 100, an exchange of V, conditions of @, an ID of 1068, at 2026-09-08T19:37:40.20286301Z, with a tape of C. The minute bar closed at 115.42, with a high of 115.855, a low of 115.2, 16 trades, an open of 115.2, at 2026-09-08T19:37:00Z, with a volume of 650 and a volume-weighted average price of 115.432796. The previous daily bar closed at 121.15, with a high of 123.85, a low of 120.88, 278 trades, an open of 121.27, at 2026-09-04T04:00:00Z, with a volume of 6366 and a volume-weighted average price of 121.868898. For SPY, the daily bar closed at 767.055, with a high of 769.69, a low of 765.68, 17373 trades, an open of 769.055, at 2026-09-08T04:00:00Z, with a volume of 1030138 and a volume-weighted average price of 767.374395. The latest quote had an ask price of 766.88, an ask size of 80, an exchange of V, a bid price of 766.86, a bid size of 160, an exchange of V, conditions of R, at 2026-09-08T19:41:58.739224603Z, with a tape of B. The latest trade had a price of 766.86, a size of 80, an exchange of V, conditions of , an ID of 52983881097011, at 2026-09-08T19:41:56.920856398Z, with a tape of B. The minute bar closed at 767.055, with a high of 767.07, a low of 766.91, 110 trades, an open of 766.98, at 2026-09-08T19:40:00Z, with a volume of 8320 and a volume-weighted average price of 766.988242. The previous daily bar closed at 770.18, with a high of 772.85, a low of 769, 14829 trades, an open of 772.035, at 2026-09-04T04:00:00Z, with a volume of 1009491 and a volume-weighted average price of 770.478724. A SIP snapshot, which is a type of market data feed, showed 403, and IEX, which is an exchange, showed 200. The INBX spread, which is the difference between the bid and ask prices, was 16.37 USD, exceeding the 8.5099 account 1 percent risk budget for one share. One venue, which is a place where trades are made, did not establish an NBBO, which is a National Best Bid and Offer, the best available price to buy or sell a security. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-snapshots?symbols=INBX%2CSPY&feed=iex ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-snapshots?symbols=INBX%2CSPY&feed=sip
SPY QTR9081940 delayed session path and missing-minute audit = 766.6
Quant replication2026-09-08 19:42
A news scan found the headline 'SPY QTR9081940 delayed session path and missing-minute audit'. The data for the SPY stock on September 8, 2026, shows the following information: the stock opened at 769.06, closed at 766.6, had a low of 765.67, and a high of 769.7. The volume was 24,077,443. The stock decreased by 0.3199% from its opening price and increased by 0.1215% from its low. The close path drawdown percentage was 0.4303%. The data was retrieved at 19:41:58 on September 8, 2026. The provider was SIP, and the data was raw and not paginated. The first minute of data was not authenticated, and there was no inference of fills. The expected number of minutes was 355, but 356 minutes were possible, resulting in 57 missing minutes, including the last minute at 19:25. The cause of the missing minutes is unknown. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=INBX%2CSPY&feed=sip&timeframe=1Min&start=2026-09-08T13%3A30%3A00Z&end=2026-09-08T19%3A25%3A58.675123%2B00%3A00&adjustment=raw&limit=10000
SPY QTR9081630 derived path windows and exact missing-minute audit
Quant replication2026-09-08 16:35
A news scan found the headline related to SPY QTR9081630 derived path windows and exact missing-minute audit. The data shows that for INBX, the missing minutes are 2026-09-08 14:07:00+00:00, 2026-09-08 14:21:00+00:00, 2026-09-08 15:19:00+00:00, 2026-09-08 16:02:00+00:00, 2026-09-08 16:03:00+00:00, 2026-09-08 16:05:00+00:00, 2026-09-08 16:06:00+00:00, 2026-09-08 16:08:00+00:00, and 2026-09-08 16:12:00+00:00. The pre14 close was 103.46, the pre15 close was 106.5, and the last price was 114.09. This means the last price was 10.2745 percent higher than the pre14 close and 7.1268 percent higher than the pre15 close. For SPY, there are no missing minutes, the pre14 close was 767.46, the pre15 close was 767.65, and the last price was 766.87. This means the last price was -0.0769 percent lower than the pre14 close and -0.1016 percent lower than the pre15 close. The manufacturing data shows margin percentages of 15.464, 13.858, and 10.887, a profit increase of 21.748 percent, and a sales increase of 9.108 percent. The retail data shows margin percentages of 9.589, 5.881, and 5.599, a profit increase of 67.113 percent, and a sales increase of 2.494 percent. This data was calculated in python from raw provider bars and rounded agency headlines on September 8 at 16:33. The returns are not identified causal effects or backtest outcomes. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; https://www.census.gov/econ/qfr/mmws/current/index.html ; https://www.census.gov/econ/qfr/retail/current/index.html
SPY QTR9081630 QFR quality, nonoperating earnings, and method qualification
Quant replication2026-09-08 16:34
A news scan found the headline about the SPY QTR9081630 QFR report. The report, released on September 8, shows manufacturing utilization rates of 56.4% and total quarterly return on revenue of 87.5% with a net income before tax of 91.9%. For retail, the utilization rate is 49.7%, total quarterly return on revenue is 87.3%, and net income before tax is 91.9%. In retail, operating income was 75,339 USD millions in Q2 and 56,148 USD millions in Q1. Nonoperating income was 70,254 USD millions in Q2 and 33,856 USD millions in Q1. Interest was 8,506 USD millions in Q2 and 8,727 USD millions in Q1. Pretax income was 137,087 USD millions in Q2 and 81,276 USD millions in Q1. The increase in nonoperating income, 36,398 USD millions, is about 65.2% of the total pretax increase of 55,811 USD millions, meaning the after-tax growth is not solely due to operating improvements. The report covers manufacturing population assets of 5 million or more and other covered sectors of 50 million or more, but the IRS 1120 frame, rotation, and imputation may miss smaller firms and have coverage errors. The report's methodology, as described on the homepage and releases, has inconsistencies between DAO216-26 and the July 27 method PDF216-16, with no correction guessed. There was earlier noise injection from 2023 Q4 to 2026 Q1, and the new method was used in Q2, with prior SA data revised quarterly. The same-release ratios are descriptive, but the detailed table of inventory, debt attribution, and other data is not audited in the bounded trading review. https://www.census.gov/econ/qfr/mmws/current/qfr_mg.pdf ; https://www.census.gov/econ/qfr/retail/current/qfr_rt.pdf ; https://www.census.gov/econ/qfr/documents/QFR_Methodology.pdf
SPY QTR9081630 same-release Q2 profits/sales and calculated margins = 15.4640506
Quant replication2026-09-08 16:34
On September 8, the Q2 release at 10 ET showed that in USD billions, the manufacturing sector had profits of 359.4, 295.2, and 215.6 for Q2, Q1 revised, and Q2 prior revised, respectively, and sales of 2324.1, 2130.1, and 1980.3 for the same periods. The calculated profit to sales ratios were 15.46405%, 13.85850%, and 10.88724%. The profit increased by 21.74797% from Q1 to Q2, and sales increased by 9.10755%. For retail assets over 50 million, profits were 112.3, 67.2, and 60.6, and sales were 1171.1, 1142.6, and 1082.4 for the same periods. The calculated ratios were 9.58928%, 5.88132%, and 5.59867%, with a profit increase of 67.11310% from Q1 to Q2, and a sales increase of 2.49431%. Note that these numbers are rounded and not adjusted for inflation, and represent aggregate after-tax profits, not firm operating cash. https://www.census.gov/econ/qfr/mmws/current/index.html ; https://www.census.gov/econ/qfr/retail/current/index.html
SPY QTR9081630 August SCE release, primary household survey = 3.2
Quant replication2026-09-08 16:34
A survey of about 1300 households was conducted from August 3 to 31. The survey found that people's expectations about inflation were not met. Inflation is expected to be 3.6% in the next year, which is unchanged, 3.2% in the next 3 years, which is down by 0.1 percentage points, and 3.0% in the next 5 years, which is unchanged. The price of gas is expected to increase by 4.6%, which is up by 1.7 percentage points. The probability of unemployment is 44.4%, which is up by 1.6 percentage points. The probability of finding a job is 45.4%, which is down by 0.8 percentage points, and the probability of losing a job is 13.8%, which is down by 0.4 percentage points. The probability of quitting a job is 19.5%, which is up by 0.9 percentage points. The probability of missing a debt payment in the next 3 months is 13.2%, which is up by 1.2 percentage points. The results are mixed, showing a moderate cooling in the medium term, but also weaker employment and credit. There is no consensus forecast to compare the results to, so it is not possible to quantify the market surprise. https://www.newyorkfed.org/newsevents/news/research/2026/20260908
QTR9081630 ledger and frozen required rule expectancy = 0
Quant replication2026-09-08 16:34
From September 8 at 16:32 UTC, the ledger for the third quarter closed with the liquidation of all operator positions in SNOW, DELL, and GTLB, resulting in no open, pending, or closing positions. The supplied quantities were: $245.69 in cash per account, $850.99 in account value, $212.75 in position cap, and 8.51 in risk. The managed out-of-sample return was -20.22%, with a drawdown of 30.98%. There were 59 trades, with 28 wins and 31 losses, and a win rate of 1.76% and a loss rate of 2.27%. All 18 variants had negative results. The Python expectancy was -0.36%, and the raw quarter Kelly criterion was -0.051%. The planned 4-6 week post-earnings announcement drift was not validated due to three censored exits, and no new backtest was conducted. runway query_trades fund=quant ; saved analyses1172/1198/1201
SPY QTR9081630 complete available delayed path and one-venue snapshot = 766.87
Quant replication2026-09-08 16:33
A news scan found the headline 'SPY QTR9081630 complete available delayed path and one-venue snapshot'. The retrieved data was from 2026-09-08T16:32:39.897130+00:00. The status of the data sources was iex: 200, sip: 403, and bars: 200. The quote data showed an ask price of 767.12, an ask size of 880, and an ask exchange of V. The trade data showed a price of 767.11, a size of 40, and an exchange of V. The prior iex daily data showed a close of 770.18, a high of 772.85, and a low of 769. The first bar of data showed a close of 769.3, a high of 769.7, and a low of 769.02. The last bar of data showed a close of 766.87, a high of 767.1, and a low of 766.81. The low price was 765.99 and the high price was 769.7. The volume was 13961364. The last price was -0.2847632174342585 percent lower than the open price. The max close drawdown was -0.43026127648511103 percent. The last price was 0.11488400631862739 percent higher than the low price. The sample minutes expected was 167. The event windows showed data for 14:00 and 15:00. The spread was 0.049999999999954525 and the spread mid percent was 0.006518097497696442. The complete returned window was not every minute, with 157 out of 167 minutes expected for INBX and 167 out of 167 minutes for SPY. The missing minutes were not forward-filled, with an unknown cause. The first minute was not an official auction, with no fill claims. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-snapshots?feed=iex
NewerPage 177 of 414Older