Notes

MeasuredSep9. Daily cross-ETF arithmeticaverageclose-return regressedonconstant andlastsession/first3dummy. NeweyWest5lags via numpy; descriptive afterfrozenrule notoptimizer. Perdaystatscountallindays includingyearboundaries, unlike83completeportfolioeventwindows. Complete correlationmatrix and decomposition: {"intercept_pct":0.057721591307067555,"premium_pct":0.23754456669922375,"se_pct":0.20663811314509864,"t":1.1495680205539962,"ci_low":-0.16746613506516955,"ci_high":0.642555268463617,"days":171,"tom_days":35,"tom_daily_pct":0.29526615800629136,"other_daily_pct":0.057721591307067686,"tom_vol_pct":1.090197660571888,"other_vol_pct":1.1291143914096742,"overnight_tom_pct":-0.01142881065355404,"intraday_tom_pct":0.30814454006249753,"correlations":{"SPY":{"SPY":1,"IWM":0.8263,"EFA":0.7976,"EEM":0.7702},"IWM":{"SPY":0.8263,"IWM":1,"EFA":0.7729,"EEM":0.7391},"EFA":{"SPY":0.7976,"IWM":0.7729,"EFA":1,"EEM":0.815},"EEM":{"SPY":0.7702,"IWM":0.7391,"EFA":0.815,"EEM":1}}} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=SPY,IWM,EFA,EEM&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all ; diagnostics.py

MeasuredSep9. Daily cross-ETF arithmeticaverageclose-return regressedonconstant andlastsession/first3dummy. NeweyWest5lags via numpy; descriptive afterfrozenrule notoptimizer. Perdaystatscountallindays includingyearboundaries, unlike83completeportfolioeventwindows. Complete correlationmatrix and decomposition: {"intercept_pct":0.08625230408683497,"premium_pct":-0.09008350536573176,"se_pct":0.1180733463775751,"t":-0.7629453058581283,"ci_low":-0.32150726426577897,"ci_high":0.14134025353431542,"days":401,"tom_days":77,"tom_daily_pct":-0.0038312012788968603,"other_daily_pct":0.086252304086835,"tom_vol_pct":0.9837464979518812,"other_vol_pct":1.027840921837442,"overnight_tom_pct":-0.09561318688700675,"intraday_tom_pct":0.093167372369375,"correlations":{"SPY":{"SPY":1,"IWM":0.829,"EFA":0.7554,"EEM":0.6926},"IWM":{"SPY":0.829,"IWM":1,"EFA":0.6867,"EEM":0.6139},"EFA":{"SPY":0.7554,"IWM":0.6867,"EFA":1,"EEM":0.7951},"EEM":{"SPY":0.6926,"IWM":0.6139,"EFA":0.7951,"EEM":1}}} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=SPY,IWM,EFA,EEM&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all ; diagnostics.py

MeasuredSep9. Daily cross-ETF arithmeticaverageclose-return regressedonconstant andlastsession/first3dummy. NeweyWest5lags via numpy; descriptive afterfrozenrule notoptimizer. Perdaystatscountallindays includingyearboundaries, unlike83completeportfolioeventwindows. Complete correlationmatrix and decomposition: {"intercept_pct":0.050113715932888866,"premium_pct":0.008149029248546368,"se_pct":0.07089099589163837,"t":0.11495154139183916,"ci_low":-0.13079732269906486,"ci_high":0.1470953811961576,"days":1760,"tom_days":336,"tom_daily_pct":0.058262745181435045,"other_daily_pct":0.05011371593288891,"tom_vol_pct":1.1327823190432815,"other_vol_pct":1.2417070571761066,"overnight_tom_pct":0.015588655855281073,"intraday_tom_pct":0.04263429284363885,"correlations":{"SPY":{"SPY":1,"IWM":0.8659,"EFA":0.8543,"EEM":0.7554},"IWM":{"SPY":0.8659,"IWM":1,"EFA":0.8046,"EEM":0.7096},"EFA":{"SPY":0.8543,"IWM":0.8046,"EFA":1,"EEM":0.8345},"EEM":{"SPY":0.7554,"IWM":0.7096,"EFA":0.8345,"EEM":1}}} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=SPY,IWM,EFA,EEM&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all ; diagnostics.py

MeasuredSep9. Daily cross-ETF arithmeticaverageclose-return regressedonconstant andlastsession/first3dummy. NeweyWest5lags via numpy; descriptive afterfrozenrule notoptimizer. Perdaystatscountallindays includingyearboundaries, unlike83completeportfolioeventwindows. Complete correlationmatrix and decomposition: {"intercept_pct":0.05153908173390204,"premium_pct":-0.05696662591840351,"se_pct":0.08240918767839334,"t":-0.6912654707957939,"ci_low":-0.21848863376805447,"ci_high":0.10455538193124744,"days":735,"tom_days":140,"tom_daily_pct":-0.005427544184501519,"other_daily_pct":0.05153908173390204,"tom_vol_pct":0.8622328635819407,"other_vol_pct":0.8597368619237076,"overnight_tom_pct":0.034676105232315554,"intraday_tom_pct":-0.03977637741762463,"correlations":{"SPY":{"SPY":1,"IWM":0.8587,"EFA":0.8045,"EEM":0.7435},"IWM":{"SPY":0.8587,"IWM":1,"EFA":0.718,"EEM":0.6439},"EFA":{"SPY":0.8045,"IWM":0.718,"EFA":1,"EEM":0.8189},"EEM":{"SPY":0.7435,"IWM":0.6439,"EFA":0.8189,"EEM":1}}} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=SPY,IWM,EFA,EEM&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all ; diagnostics.py

MeasuredSep9;2paginatedrequestscomplete. All2685expectedNYSEsessions Jan4 2016–Sep8 2026, zero missing/unexpected dates, duplicate0, positiveOHLCandhigh-lowcoherencepass. Localcalendarpackageverification. Requested2010start but feedbegins2016; no backwardfill. adjustedhistoricalclose/ADRnotliveexecutablequote. {"n":2685,"start":"2016-01-04","end":"2026-09-08","sha256":"921c8dbb35443af52f184addfc3553173c236ce2d090725b9c41dcc4a4337d9e","latest_close":68.83,"adr20":0.67089,"volume":18035269} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=EEM&timeframe=1Day&start=2010-01-01T00:00:00Z&end=2026-09-08T23:40:00Z&feed=sip&adjustment=all

MeasuredSep9;2paginatedrequestscomplete. All2685expectedNYSEsessions Jan4 2016–Sep8 2026, zero missing/unexpected dates, duplicate0, positiveOHLCandhigh-lowcoherencepass. Localcalendarpackageverification. Requested2010start but feedbegins2016; no backwardfill. adjustedhistoricalclose/ADRnotliveexecutablequote. {"n":2685,"start":"2016-01-04","end":"2026-09-08","sha256":"4b4a20e690f3072780180bbde4d6ed7ba2cae64450f44dadab41a427ff4914c9","latest_close":107.76,"adr20":0.6506199999999985,"volume":8313243} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=EFA&timeframe=1Day&start=2010-01-01T00:00:00Z&end=2026-09-08T23:40:00Z&feed=sip&adjustment=all

MeasuredSep9;2paginatedrequestscomplete. All2685expectedNYSEsessions Jan4 2016–Sep8 2026, zero missing/unexpected dates, duplicate0, positiveOHLCandhigh-lowcoherencepass. Localcalendarpackageverification. Requested2010start but feedbegins2016; no backwardfill. adjustedhistoricalclose/ADRnotliveexecutablequote. {"n":2685,"start":"2016-01-04","end":"2026-09-08","sha256":"8f8f4fd0ee1be846278feb879f0a6b985179904885d2c489152b342d4d203e1c","latest_close":294.67,"adr20":2.4450249999999953,"volume":17327777} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=IWM&timeframe=1Day&start=2010-01-01T00:00:00Z&end=2026-09-08T23:40:00Z&feed=sip&adjustment=all

MeasuredSep9;2paginatedrequestscomplete. All2685expectedNYSEsessions Jan4 2016–Sep8 2026, zero missing/unexpected dates, duplicate0, positiveOHLCandhigh-lowcoherencepass. Localcalendarpackageverification. Requested2010start but feedbegins2016; no backwardfill. adjustedhistoricalclose/ADRnotliveexecutablequote. {"n":2685,"start":"2016-01-04","end":"2026-09-08","sha256":"7a59bfaafafa0e39ee8934aad3af8faf15dd0add8499fcccacf50042a6941cad","latest_close":765.96,"adr20":4.4660599999999935,"volume":44820585} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=SPY&timeframe=1Day&start=2010-01-01T00:00:00Z&end=2026-09-08T23:40:00Z&feed=sip&adjustment=all

Measured Sep9 2026. Full derived statistics incl all per-symbol win/loss summaries; returns inpercent, quarterKellyfraction. Month-resampledCI clustered acrossfourassets,10000resamples seed90904. {"label":"extension_sensitivity_1.25_2_16","period":"extension","kind":"sensitivity","stop_adr":1.25,"target_adr":2,"cost_bps":16,"return_pct":0.9383184110944187,"drawdown_pct":2.558178665505506,"months":8,"ci_low":-0.7275835646263822,"ci_high":1.2156082472553846,"ambiguous":0,"sample":32,"win_rate":43.75,"average_win":2.086783930266965,"average_loss":1.3873001341171445,"mean":0.13261164405090342,"quarter_kelly":0.015887083723365905,"by_symbol":{"SPY":{"sample":8,"win_rate":50,"average_win":1.491013974848937,"average_loss":0.75387987784096,"mean":0.3685670485039885,"quarter_kelly":0.06179805399565924},"IWM":{"sample":8,"win_rate":25,"average_win":3.005232424113957,"average_loss":1.442361183134433,"mean":-0.3304627813223354,"quarter_kelly":0},"EFA":{"sample":8,"win_rate":50,"average_win":1.749918007531437,"average_loss":1.64776109862341,"mean":0.051078454454013544,"quarter_kelly":0.0072972639623939545},"EEM":{"sample":8,"win_rate":50,"average_win":2.560195561497025,"average_loss":1.677667852361131,"mean":0.44126385456794703,"quarter_kelly":0.04308888168585122}}} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=SPY,IWM,EFA,EEM&timeframe=1Day&start=2010-01-01T00:00:00Z&end=2026-09-08T23:40:00Z&feed=sip&adjustment=all ; local study.py/results.json

Measured Sep9 2026. Full derived statistics incl all per-symbol win/loss summaries; returns inpercent, quarterKellyfraction. Month-resampledCI clustered acrossfourassets,10000resamples seed90904. {"label":"extension_sensitivity_1.25_2_6","period":"extension","kind":"sensitivity","stop_adr":1.25,"target_adr":2,"cost_bps":6,"return_pct":2.566322571986035,"drawdown_pct":1.9218360065978768,"months":8,"ci_low":-0.5288398389721772,"ci_high":1.4182422497278806,"ambiguous":0,"sample":32,"win_rate":50,"average_win":2.0251251982874128,"average_loss":1.3589702312316736,"mean":0.3330774835278695,"quarter_kelly":0.041118134796004596,"by_symbol":{"SPY":{"sample":8,"win_rate":62.5,"average_win":1.391056415918075,"average_loss":0.7997466357895999,"mean":0.5695052715276969,"quarter_kelly":0.10235121757298257},"IWM":{"sample":8,"win_rate":25,"average_win":3.2114492604611633,"average_loss":1.2450484447777723,"mean":-0.13092401846803853,"quarter_kelly":0},"EFA":{"sample":8,"win_rate":50,"average_win":1.9536217000167444,"average_loss":1.4508595716174966,"mean":0.2513810641996239,"quarter_kelly":0.03216859540891019},"EEM":{"sample":8,"win_rate":62.5,"average_win":2.241867154403785,"average_loss":2.02351827906712,"mean":0.6423476168521958,"quarter_kelly":0.07163087424587224}}} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=SPY,IWM,EFA,EEM&timeframe=1Day&start=2010-01-01T00:00:00Z&end=2026-09-08T23:40:00Z&feed=sip&adjustment=all ; local study.py/results.json

Measured Sep9 2026. Full derived statistics incl all per-symbol win/loss summaries; returns inpercent, quarterKellyfraction. Month-resampledCI clustered acrossfourassets,10000resamples seed90904. {"label":"extension_sensitivity_1_2_16","period":"extension","kind":"sensitivity","stop_adr":1,"target_adr":2,"cost_bps":16,"return_pct":-0.43466671842563587,"drawdown_pct":3.316425889969621,"months":8,"ci_low":-0.9996167492874176,"ci_high":1.1360477635414326,"ambiguous":0,"sample":32,"win_rate":37.5,"average_win":2.171070499185146,"average_loss":1.366462521514646,"mean":-0.03988763875222394,"quarter_kelly":0,"by_symbol":{"SPY":{"sample":8,"win_rate":37.5,"average_win":1.47457790862943,"average_loss":0.784443173558751,"mean":0.06268973226181696,"quarter_kelly":0.010628419816774023},"IWM":{"sample":8,"win_rate":25,"average_win":3.005232424113957,"average_loss":1.5068986111149762,"mean":-0.3788658523077429,"quarter_kelly":0},"EFA":{"sample":8,"win_rate":37.5,"average_win":1.7926217233724822,"average_loss":1.4925792575827868,"mean":-0.26062888972456094,"quarter_kelly":0},"EEM":{"sample":8,"win_rate":50,"average_win":2.560195561497025,"average_loss":1.725686651973843,"mean":0.4172544547615911,"quarter_kelly":0.04074439283435145}}} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=SPY,IWM,EFA,EEM&timeframe=1Day&start=2010-01-01T00:00:00Z&end=2026-09-08T23:40:00Z&feed=sip&adjustment=all ; local study.py/results.json

Measured Sep9 2026. Full derived statistics incl all per-symbol win/loss summaries; returns inpercent, quarterKellyfraction. Month-resampledCI clustered acrossfourassets,10000resamples seed90904. {"label":"extension_sensitivity_1_2_6","period":"extension","kind":"sensitivity","stop_adr":1,"target_adr":2,"cost_bps":6,"return_pct":1.171192973062385,"drawdown_pct":2.8316997632800156,"months":8,"ci_low":-0.8014176350223889,"ci_high":1.338522485646671,"ambiguous":0,"sample":32,"win_rate":40.625,"average_win":2.206607138661208,"average_loss":1.2399179680423695,"mean":0.16023285655595887,"quarter_kelly":0.018153758971020922,"by_symbol":{"SPY":{"sample":8,"win_rate":50,"average_win":1.3029189562979882,"average_loss":0.7768877806453689,"mean":0.2630155878263096,"quarter_kelly":0.05046660549279702},"IWM":{"sample":8,"win_rate":25,"average_win":3.2114492604611633,"average_loss":1.3097150769153465,"mean":-0.17942399257121905,"quarter_kelly":0},"EFA":{"sample":8,"win_rate":37.5,"average_win":1.996410908846591,"average_loss":1.2953670559872021,"mean":-0.060950319174529755,"quarter_kelly":0},"EEM":{"sample":8,"win_rate":50,"average_win":2.7655214324854125,"average_loss":1.5289411321988633,"mean":0.6182901501432747,"quarter_kelly":0.05589272811995609}}} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=SPY,IWM,EFA,EEM&timeframe=1Day&start=2010-01-01T00:00:00Z&end=2026-09-08T23:40:00Z&feed=sip&adjustment=all ; local study.py/results.json

Measured Sep9 2026. Full derived statistics incl all per-symbol win/loss summaries; returns inpercent, quarterKellyfraction. Month-resampledCI clustered acrossfourassets,10000resamples seed90904. {"label":"extension_sensitivity_0.75_2_16","period":"extension","kind":"sensitivity","stop_adr":0.75,"target_adr":2,"cost_bps":16,"return_pct":0.26470112375052146,"drawdown_pct":2.700608371936386,"months":8,"ci_low":-0.8098792175131344,"ci_high":1.1331242045635743,"ambiguous":0,"sample":32,"win_rate":34.375,"average_win":2.3329780210508213,"average_loss":1.154459173809135,"mean":0.044347361923974954,"quarter_kelly":0.004752226716649488,"by_symbol":{"SPY":{"sample":8,"win_rate":37.5,"average_win":1.47457790862943,"average_loss":0.6988420229077152,"mean":0.11619045141871426,"quarter_kelly":0.019698933969299268},"IWM":{"sample":8,"win_rate":25,"average_win":3.005232424113957,"average_loss":1.1997950920818032,"mean":-0.14853821303286302,"quarter_kelly":0},"EFA":{"sample":8,"win_rate":25,"average_win":2.493888705727365,"average_loss":1.3423522094993736,"mean":-0.38329198069268905,"quarter_kelly":0},"EEM":{"sample":8,"win_rate":50,"average_win":2.560195561497025,"average_loss":1.37413718149155,"mean":0.5930291900027376,"quarter_kelly":0.0579085831294832}}} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=SPY,IWM,EFA,EEM&timeframe=1Day&start=2010-01-01T00:00:00Z&end=2026-09-08T23:40:00Z&feed=sip&adjustment=all ; local study.py/results.json

Measured Sep9 2026. Full derived statistics incl all per-symbol win/loss summaries; returns inpercent, quarterKellyfraction. Month-resampledCI clustered acrossfourassets,10000resamples seed90904. {"label":"extension_sensitivity_0.75_2_6","period":"extension","kind":"sensitivity","stop_adr":0.75,"target_adr":2,"cost_bps":6,"return_pct":1.8818407114660651,"drawdown_pct":2.212794824834252,"months":8,"ci_low":-0.6113002480444475,"ci_high":1.3355930736935,"ambiguous":0,"sample":32,"win_rate":37.5,"average_win":2.3412353113643425,"average_loss":1.013322793220589,"mean":0.24463649599876028,"quarter_kelly":0.026122587380612294,"by_symbol":{"SPY":{"sample":8,"win_rate":50,"average_win":1.3029189562979882,"average_loss":0.6696721250770282,"mean":0.31662341561047996,"quarter_kelly":0.06075270723478246},"IWM":{"sample":8,"win_rate":25,"average_win":3.2114492604611633,"average_loss":1.0019967355606563,"mean":0.05136476344479862,"quarter_kelly":0.0039985657003205055},"EFA":{"sample":8,"win_rate":25,"average_win":2.69908183015809,"average_loss":1.1448392528269715,"mean":-0.18385898208070628,"quarter_kelly":0},"EEM":{"sample":8,"win_rate":50,"average_win":2.7655214324854125,"average_loss":1.176687858444475,"mean":0.7944167870204688,"quarter_kelly":0.07181437627718143}}} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=SPY,IWM,EFA,EEM&timeframe=1Day&start=2010-01-01T00:00:00Z&end=2026-09-08T23:40:00Z&feed=sip&adjustment=all ; local study.py/results.json

Measured Sep9 2026. Full derived statistics incl all per-symbol win/loss summaries; returns inpercent, quarterKellyfraction. Month-resampledCI clustered acrossfourassets,10000resamples seed90904. {"label":"extension_sensitivity_0.75_1.5_16","period":"extension","kind":"sensitivity","stop_adr":0.75,"target_adr":1.5,"cost_bps":16,"return_pct":-0.9696614935722492,"drawdown_pct":2.906433046651413,"months":8,"ci_low":-0.8294034192138491,"ci_high":0.7626321865974592,"ambiguous":0,"sample":32,"win_rate":34.375,"average_win":1.8710416723412893,"average_loss":1.154459173809135,"mean":-0.11444325794492671,"quarter_kelly":0,"by_symbol":{"SPY":{"sample":8,"win_rate":37.5,"average_win":1.2498481464440512,"average_loss":0.6988420229077152,"mean":0.03191679059919711,"quarter_kelly":0.006384133682560508},"IWM":{"sample":8,"win_rate":25,"average_win":2.331768598891948,"average_loss":1.1997950920818032,"mean":-0.31690416933836535,"quarter_kelly":0},"EFA":{"sample":8,"win_rate":25,"average_win":1.8317884507514703,"average_loss":1.3423522094993736,"mean":-0.5488170444366627,"quarter_kelly":0},"EEM":{"sample":8,"win_rate":50,"average_win":2.1261999642837983,"average_loss":1.37413718149155,"mean":0.3760313913961241,"quarter_kelly":0.044214020049001934}}} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=SPY,IWM,EFA,EEM&timeframe=1Day&start=2010-01-01T00:00:00Z&end=2026-09-08T23:40:00Z&feed=sip&adjustment=all ; local study.py/results.json

Measured Sep9 2026. Full derived statistics incl all per-symbol win/loss summaries; returns inpercent, quarterKellyfraction. Month-resampledCI clustered acrossfourassets,10000resamples seed90904. {"label":"extension_sensitivity_0.75_1.5_6","period":"extension","kind":"sensitivity","stop_adr":0.75,"target_adr":1.5,"cost_bps":6,"return_pct":0.6275694260707176,"drawdown_pct":2.3067575288993614,"months":8,"ci_low":-0.630863537265406,"ci_high":0.9643593294088353,"ambiguous":0,"sample":32,"win_rate":37.5,"average_win":1.916945926707166,"average_loss":1.013322793220589,"mean":0.08552797675231913,"quarter_kelly":0.011154197878084485,"by_symbol":{"SPY":{"sample":8,"win_rate":50,"average_win":1.134034202330264,"average_loss":0.6696721250770282,"mean":0.23218103862661793,"quarter_kelly":0.051184752221212104},"IWM":{"sample":8,"win_rate":25,"average_win":2.5366371583005587,"average_loss":1.0019967355606563,"mean":-0.11733826209535253,"quarter_kelly":0},"EFA":{"sample":8,"win_rate":25,"average_win":2.03565604815108,"average_loss":1.1448392528269715,"mean":-0.34971542758245877,"quarter_kelly":0},"EEM":{"sample":8,"win_rate":50,"average_win":2.330656974565415,"average_loss":1.176687858444475,"mean":0.5769845580604699,"quarter_kelly":0.06189076345823662}}} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=SPY,IWM,EFA,EEM&timeframe=1Day&start=2010-01-01T00:00:00Z&end=2026-09-08T23:40:00Z&feed=sip&adjustment=all ; local study.py/results.json

Measured Sep9 2026. Full derived statistics incl all per-symbol win/loss summaries; returns inpercent, quarterKellyfraction. Month-resampledCI clustered acrossfourassets,10000resamples seed90904. {"label":"extension_trail_1_1.5_16","period":"extension","kind":"trail","stop_adr":1,"target_adr":1.5,"cost_bps":16,"return_pct":-1.431028025537917,"drawdown_pct":3.413455468127091,"months":8,"ci_low":-0.9502703585282873,"ci_high":0.7572405664138453,"ambiguous":0,"sample":32,"win_rate":34.375,"average_win":1.8710416723412893,"average_loss":1.2384146429215144,"mean":-0.16953903454992558,"quarter_kelly":0,"by_symbol":{"SPY":{"sample":8,"win_rate":37.5,"average_win":1.2498481464440512,"average_loss":0.784443173558751,"mean":-0.021583928557700194,"quarter_kelly":0},"IWM":{"sample":8,"win_rate":25,"average_win":2.331768598891948,"average_loss":1.253214732515212,"mean":-0.3569688996634221,"quarter_kelly":0},"EFA":{"sample":8,"win_rate":25,"average_win":1.8317884507514703,"average_loss":1.2770761050952337,"mean":-0.4998599661335576,"quarter_kelly":0},"EEM":{"sample":8,"win_rate":50,"average_win":2.1261999642837983,"average_loss":1.725686651973843,"mean":0.20025665615497762,"quarter_kelly":0.02354631026231266}}} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=SPY,IWM,EFA,EEM&timeframe=1Day&start=2010-01-01T00:00:00Z&end=2026-09-08T23:40:00Z&feed=sip&adjustment=all ; local study.py/results.json

Measured Sep9 2026. Full derived statistics incl all per-symbol win/loss summaries; returns inpercent, quarterKellyfraction. Month-resampledCI clustered acrossfourassets,10000resamples seed90904. {"label":"extension_trail_1_1.5_6","period":"extension","kind":"trail","stop_adr":1,"target_adr":1.5,"cost_bps":6,"return_pct":0.15876165032804312,"drawdown_pct":2.929215802266294,"months":8,"ci_low":-0.7519724526159964,"ci_high":0.9589569151827136,"ambiguous":0,"sample":32,"win_rate":43.75,"average_win":1.645592253739538,"average_loss":1.225999489425076,"mean":0.030321898209442408,"quarter_kelly":0.004606532714974992,"by_symbol":{"SPY":{"sample":8,"win_rate":50,"average_win":1.134034202330264,"average_loss":0.7768877806453689,"mean":0.1785732108424476,"quarter_kelly":0.03936680447457126},"IWM":{"sample":8,"win_rate":37.5,"average_win":1.702658087043596,"average_loss":1.2735679756676865,"mean":-0.15748320215095563,"quarter_kelly":0},"EFA":{"sample":8,"win_rate":37.5,"average_win":1.3571841945466754,"average_loss":1.2953670559872021,"mean":-0.3006603370369981,"quarter_kelly":0},"EEM":{"sample":8,"win_rate":50,"average_win":2.330656974565415,"average_loss":1.5289411321988633,"mean":0.4008579211832758,"quarter_kelly":0.04299838259746713}}} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=SPY,IWM,EFA,EEM&timeframe=1Day&start=2010-01-01T00:00:00Z&end=2026-09-08T23:40:00Z&feed=sip&adjustment=all ; local study.py/results.json

Measured Sep9 2026. Full derived statistics incl all per-symbol win/loss summaries; returns inpercent, quarterKellyfraction. Month-resampledCI clustered acrossfourassets,10000resamples seed90904. {"label":"extension_managed_1_1.5_16","period":"extension","kind":"managed","stop_adr":1,"target_adr":1.5,"cost_bps":16,"return_pct":-1.6592272917270723,"drawdown_pct":3.4095527583395735,"months":8,"ci_low":-1.0127839516658368,"ci_high":0.7565202540926772,"ambiguous":0,"sample":32,"win_rate":37.5,"average_win":1.7476288462014082,"average_loss":1.366462521514646,"mean":-0.1986782586211256,"quarter_kelly":0,"by_symbol":{"SPY":{"sample":8,"win_rate":37.5,"average_win":1.2498481464440512,"average_loss":0.784443173558751,"mean":-0.021583928557700194,"quarter_kelly":0},"IWM":{"sample":8,"win_rate":25,"average_win":2.331768598891948,"average_loss":1.5068986111149762,"mean":-0.5472318086132453,"quarter_kelly":0},"EFA":{"sample":8,"win_rate":37.5,"average_win":1.351221553388552,"average_loss":1.4925792575827868,"mean":-0.42615395346853463,"quarter_kelly":0},"EEM":{"sample":8,"win_rate":50,"average_win":2.1261999642837983,"average_loss":1.725686651973843,"mean":0.20025665615497762,"quarter_kelly":0.02354631026231266}}} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=SPY,IWM,EFA,EEM&timeframe=1Day&start=2010-01-01T00:00:00Z&end=2026-09-08T23:40:00Z&feed=sip&adjustment=all ; local study.py/results.json

Measured Sep9 2026. Full derived statistics incl all per-symbol win/loss summaries; returns inpercent, quarterKellyfraction. Month-resampledCI clustered acrossfourassets,10000resamples seed90904. {"label":"extension_managed_1_1.5_6","period":"extension","kind":"managed","stop_adr":1,"target_adr":1.5,"cost_bps":6,"return_pct":-0.07311817405466492,"drawdown_pct":2.9252935261210866,"months":8,"ci_low":-0.8146111981861178,"ci_high":0.9582351607937505,"ambiguous":0,"sample":32,"win_rate":40.625,"average_win":1.8149553989776603,"average_loss":1.2399179680423695,"mean":0.001124337309517734,"quarter_kelly":0.00015487120374294006,"by_symbol":{"SPY":{"sample":8,"win_rate":50,"average_win":1.134034202330264,"average_loss":0.7768877806453689,"mean":0.1785732108424476,"quarter_kelly":0.03936680447457126},"IWM":{"sample":8,"win_rate":25,"average_win":2.5366371583005587,"average_loss":1.3097150769153465,"mean":-0.3481270181113702,"quarter_kelly":0},"EFA":{"sample":8,"win_rate":37.5,"average_win":1.5541270541752508,"average_loss":1.2953670559872021,"mean":-0.22680676467628225,"quarter_kelly":0},"EEM":{"sample":8,"win_rate":50,"average_win":2.330656974565415,"average_loss":1.5289411321988633,"mean":0.4008579211832758,"quarter_kelly":0.04299838259746713}}} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=SPY,IWM,EFA,EEM&timeframe=1Day&start=2010-01-01T00:00:00Z&end=2026-09-08T23:40:00Z&feed=sip&adjustment=all ; local study.py/results.json

Measured Sep9 2026. Full derived statistics incl all per-symbol win/loss summaries; returns inpercent, quarterKellyfraction. Month-resampledCI clustered acrossfourassets,10000resamples seed90904. {"label":"extension_open_0_0_16","period":"extension","kind":"open","stop_adr":0,"target_adr":0,"cost_bps":16,"return_pct":3.27542903686322,"drawdown_pct":5.501486438678138,"months":8,"ci_low":-0.7466004120980675,"ci_high":1.5870726326168236,"ambiguous":0,"sample":32,"win_rate":53.125,"average_win":1.860460927797573,"average_loss":1.21248620919768,"mean":0.42001695733104827,"quarter_kelly":0.05643990570501624,"by_symbol":{"SPY":{"sample":8,"win_rate":62.5,"average_win":1.6519830998886098,"average_loss":0.562335459874604,"mean":0.8216136399774046,"quarter_kelly":0.12433747658084464},"IWM":{"sample":8,"win_rate":37.5,"average_win":2.805348902746803,"average_loss":0.6111627605944814,"mean":0.6700291131585003,"quarter_kelly":0.05970996268079652},"EFA":{"sample":8,"win_rate":62.5,"average_win":1.2462789462717483,"average_loss":1.8900794313831477,"mean":0.07014455465116226,"quarter_kelly":0.014070797484985242},"EEM":{"sample":8,"win_rate":50,"average_win":2.1801197083791357,"average_loss":1.9435586653048842,"mean":0.11828052153712576,"quarter_kelly":0.013563535190581844}}} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=SPY,IWM,EFA,EEM&timeframe=1Day&start=2010-01-01T00:00:00Z&end=2026-09-08T23:40:00Z&feed=sip&adjustment=all ; local study.py/results.json

Measured Sep9 2026. Full derived statistics incl all per-symbol win/loss summaries; returns inpercent, quarterKellyfraction. Month-resampledCI clustered acrossfourassets,10000resamples seed90904. {"label":"extension_open_0_0_6","period":"extension","kind":"open","stop_adr":0,"target_adr":0,"cost_bps":6,"return_pct":4.941127760960429,"drawdown_pct":5.312300083310362,"months":8,"ci_low":-0.5478947582391529,"ci_high":1.790450308090799,"ambiguous":0,"sample":32,"win_rate":62.5,"average_win":1.7728763957822988,"average_loss":1.298638837630329,"mean":0.6210581832525635,"quarter_kelly":0.08757776130502819,"by_symbol":{"SPY":{"sample":8,"win_rate":75,"average_win":1.5759897248507941,"average_loss":0.6341337190916674,"mean":1.0234588638651787,"quarter_kelly":0.16235176659576162},"IWM":{"sample":8,"win_rate":37.5,"average_win":3.0111655715836445,"average_loss":0.4121859600825384,"mean":0.8715708642922801,"quarter_kelly":0.07236158586871562},"EFA":{"sample":8,"win_rate":75,"average_win":1.2136840241672275,"average_loss":2.5591107333168717,"mean":0.27048533479620274,"quarter_kelly":0.05571576485523011},"EEM":{"sample":8,"win_rate":62.5,"average_win":1.9371977413573838,"average_loss":2.3787491154447267,"mean":0.31871767005659246,"quarter_kelly":0.04113127731519921}}} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=SPY,IWM,EFA,EEM&timeframe=1Day&start=2010-01-01T00:00:00Z&end=2026-09-08T23:40:00Z&feed=sip&adjustment=all ; local study.py/results.json

Measured Sep9 2026. Full derived statistics incl all per-symbol win/loss summaries; returns inpercent, quarterKellyfraction. Month-resampledCI clustered acrossfourassets,10000resamples seed90904. {"label":"extension_parent_0_0_16","period":"extension","kind":"parent","stop_adr":0,"target_adr":0,"cost_bps":16,"return_pct":4.516781654157698,"drawdown_pct":6.5075834407737565,"months":8,"ci_low":-0.9980714053069936,"ci_high":2.1518071618774384,"ambiguous":0,"sample":32,"win_rate":56.25,"average_win":2.337322246997562,"average_loss":1.668861088614285,"mean":0.5846170376673787,"quarter_kelly":0.06253064146571534,"by_symbol":{"SPY":{"sample":8,"win_rate":62.5,"average_win":2.0033952274330646,"average_loss":0.9119199462525521,"mean":0.9101520373009584,"quarter_kelly":0.11357619615415693},"IWM":{"sample":8,"win_rate":37.5,"average_win":3.54442517993383,"average_loss":1.1922942988148644,"mean":0.583975505715896,"quarter_kelly":0.041189718788675216},"EFA":{"sample":8,"win_rate":62.5,"average_win":1.7420726996393032,"average_loss":1.7938596345431934,"mean":0.416098074320867,"quarter_kelly":0.05971307546565367},"EEM":{"sample":8,"win_rate":62.5,"average_win":2.542237054158556,"average_loss":3.095081668046144,"mean":0.4282425333317935,"quarter_kelly":0.04211276566747389}}} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=SPY,IWM,EFA,EEM&timeframe=1Day&start=2010-01-01T00:00:00Z&end=2026-09-08T23:40:00Z&feed=sip&adjustment=all ; local study.py/results.json

Measured Sep9 2026. Full derived statistics incl all per-symbol win/loss summaries; returns inpercent, quarterKellyfraction. Month-resampledCI clustered acrossfourassets,10000resamples seed90904. {"label":"extension_parent_0_0_6","period":"extension","kind":"parent","stop_adr":0,"target_adr":0,"cost_bps":6,"return_pct":6.202501785961134,"drawdown_pct":6.226778522811838,"months":8,"ci_low":-0.7998691972578967,"ci_high":2.3563154378583873,"ambiguous":0,"sample":32,"win_rate":59.375,"average_win":2.4130042279867583,"average_loss":1.5919593029919767,"mean":0.7859877935266469,"quarter_kelly":0.08143249236890276,"by_symbol":{"SPY":{"sample":8,"win_rate":62.5,"average_win":2.207606382201077,"average_loss":0.7135452626804557,"mean":1.1121745153705023,"quarter_kelly":0.125948009157957},"IWM":{"sample":8,"win_rate":37.5,"average_win":3.7517214820680675,"average_loss":0.9944809256793197,"mean":0.7853449772259504,"quarter_kelly":0.05233230804709439},"EFA":{"sample":8,"win_rate":62.5,"average_win":1.9457606857907273,"average_loss":1.597250597318282,"mean":0.6171314546248488,"quarter_kelly":0.07929179820668132},"EEM":{"sample":8,"win_rate":75,"average_win":2.304180090930863,"average_loss":4.395339365251444,"mean":0.6293002268852863,"quarter_kelly":0.06827810783564404}}} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=SPY,IWM,EFA,EEM&timeframe=1Day&start=2010-01-01T00:00:00Z&end=2026-09-08T23:40:00Z&feed=sip&adjustment=all ; local study.py/results.json

Measured Sep9 2026. Full derived statistics incl all per-symbol win/loss summaries; returns inpercent, quarterKellyfraction. Month-resampledCI clustered acrossfourassets,10000resamples seed90904. {"label":"holdout_sensitivity_1.25_2_16","period":"holdout","kind":"sensitivity","stop_adr":1.25,"target_adr":2,"cost_bps":16,"return_pct":-14.566838190328014,"drawdown_pct":19.42064762653911,"months":83,"ci_low":-0.522951998141174,"ci_high":0.15112344315253562,"ambiguous":0,"sample":332,"win_rate":43.97590361445783,"average_win":1.6071414379324775,"average_loss":1.5942711388249253,"mean":-0.1864210297689588,"quarter_kelly":0,"by_symbol":{"SPY":{"sample":83,"win_rate":43.373493975903614,"average_win":1.5975085737381995,"average_loss":1.4938014893909735,"mean":-0.15299230538313952,"quarter_kelly":0},"IWM":{"sample":83,"win_rate":38.55421686746988,"average_win":2.218266561226552,"average_loss":2.05523570850547,"mean":-0.4076203755967383,"quarter_kelly":0},"EFA":{"sample":83,"win_rate":43.373493975903614,"average_win":1.1471735823771712,"average_loss":1.3494015473531553,"mean":-0.2665496838556642,"quarter_kelly":0},"EEM":{"sample":83,"win_rate":50.602409638554214,"average_win":1.544037199017589,"average_loss":1.416752877089831,"mean":0.08147824575970672,"quarter_kelly":0.013192403300184105}}} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=SPY,IWM,EFA,EEM&timeframe=1Day&start=2010-01-01T00:00:00Z&end=2026-09-08T23:40:00Z&feed=sip&adjustment=all ; local study.py/results.json