SNAP SEC sharecount and SBC crosscheck = 1691197712
Options mispricing2026-09-06 02:07
Q2filing readSep6: July30 sharesA1437047479+B22523290+C231626943=1691197712. AtSep4IEX5.48, allclasses sameeconomicprice assumption marketcap9.267763bn. Q2revenue1598.993m, FCF120.5m, totalSBC263.189m=16.46%revenue, cash+securities2.7bn. AdjustedEBITDAreconciliationSBC236.680m differsfromtotal because26.509m restructuringSBC included separately; do notcallcontradiction orsubtracttwice. SimpleannualizedQ2price/sales1.449x andFCFyield5.20% are seasonalstaticdiagnostics, not forwardfairvalue. Netloss163.960m persists; totalSBC>FCF.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1564408/000156440826000052/snap-20260630.htm
IBIT Published segmented-collateral carry wedge, not a long-option payoff = 2.581
Options mispricing2026-09-06 02:07
MindyL.Mallory paper submittedMay28 2026; own empiricalstudy primary, not independently replicated here. Selected386date-bucket observations; annualized meanwedge2.581percentagepoints, median2.521, SD4.716, p5-4.767,p95 10.418. Filters14–90calendardays, abs moneyness<5%, spread<10%mid, bothlegsOI>=100; selectedanalysis14–30/31–60day buckets, no thinlongend. Method matches call-put impliedforward, ETFholdings andCMEcarry. These are carry differences, NOT realizedtradeprofits/winrates or freelyarbitrageable cash. Our no-short/no-futures rules cannot lock it; $8.51premiumcap conflicts with liquidATMpair universe.
https://arxiv.org/html/2605.29309v1
BITO Futures and monthly distribution structure = 0.95
Options mispricing2026-09-06 02:06
Issuer page readSep6: BITO uses futures andswaps, no directbitcoin investment; distributes futures-related gains monthly ifany; annualexpenseratio0.95%. Published product values have varyingasof dates and no Sep6 tradable quote implied. Must model discrete distributions and futuresroll, not treattotalreturn volatility andraw NAV decline as interchangeable. Exact next dividendamount/date not established.
https://www.proshares.com/our-etfs/strategic/bito
SNAP Q2 2026 issuer operating and valuation inputs = 1599
Options mispricing2026-09-06 02:06
Issuer release datedAug3, quarterendedJun30: revenue1599m, growth19%, operatingcash176m, FCF121m, netloss164m, adjustedEBITDA250m, MAU971m. Derived FCFmargin7.57%, netmargin-10.26%, adjustedEBITDAmargin15.63%. Management primary but promotional; these are old known results, not a newSep6 catalyst or evidence of an underpricedput. Balance-sheet/sharecount valuation remains toverify.
https://investor.snap.com/news/news-details/2026/Snap-Inc--Announces-Second-Quarter-2026-Financial-Results/default.aspx
Issuer page readSep6; notice says filedAug4, reverse split afterOct5 close and adjusted tradingOct6; ratio not supplied in text, OCC deliverables unverified. Sep4 NAV18.52, marketclose18.52, shares464560000, basketamount740916.76, basketether301.73, sponsorfee0.25% annual, distributionfrequencyNone. Issuer primary, promotional product page. ETHB staking prospectus is a different product; do not transfer staking economics toETHA. September expiries precede scheduled split; October9/16 require adjustment review.
https://www.ishares.com/us/products/337614/ishares-ethereum-trust-etf
Primary indicative-feed limitation reconfirmed
Options mispricing2026-09-06 02:03
Read2026-09-06 02UTC; provider documentation says indicative quotes and trades are derivatives, not actual OPRA quotes, and trades delayed15minutes. Historical option availability beginsFebruary2024. Closest source: provider describing own product; not independent liquidity evidence. Prior runOPRA403 agreementunsigned preserved; no repeated entitlement probe without changed evidence.
https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/historical-option-data
Representative parity flags; not executable arbitrages = 687
Options mispricing2026-09-06 00:12
[{"symbol":"F","expiry":"2026-09-11","K":14,"interval_low":0.5800000000000001,"interval_high":0.6000000000000001,"bound_low":0.6037927923552715,"bound_high":0.6311003240644464},{"symbol":"FXI","expiry":"2026-09-18","K":20,"interval_low":15.42,"interval_high":15.83,"bound_low":15.834978109777339,"bound_high":15.935974474833621},{"symbol":"GLD","expiry":"2026-09-08","K":280,"interval_low":127.83,"interval_high":128.6,"bound_low":126.60172455637661,"bound_high":126.96404907312558},{"symbol":"GLD","expiry":"2026-09-08","K":285,"interval_low":123.45,"interval_high":124.42,"bound_low":121.60172455637661,"bound_high":121.96733566371711},{"symbol":"GLD","expiry":"2026-09-08","K":300,"interval_low":107.56,"interval_high":108.07,"bound_low":106.60172455637661,"bound_high":106.9771954354917}]; Assumed broad American vanilla interval S*exp(-0.04T)-K <= C-P <= S-K*exp(-0.06T), quote interval [callbid-putask,callask-putbid]. Flags include penny differences and may reflect modified prices, different underlying timestamps, missing dividends/adjusted deliverables. No arbitrage profit counted; no short leg allowed.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/option-chain/GLD?feed=indicative
{"symbol":"IWM","occ":"IWM260910C00306000","S":295.94,"K":306,"type":"C","expiry":"2026-09-10","T":0.0164383561643835,"bid":0.01,"ask":0.02,"quote_time":"2026-09-04T19:59:59.614197042Z","bid_size":210,"ask_size":105,"iv":0.1208,"delta":0.0106,"forecast":0.2123576205017172,"fair":0.4560811413144989,"low":0.004639167515295,"high":0.8297224638900005,"net_gap":0.4340811413144989,"robust_gap":-0.0173608324847049,"affordable":true,"spread":0.01,"sessions":3,"session_fair":0.24336298499483178,"session_low":0.0008448033700373947,"session_gap":-0.021155196629962604}; Sep4 indicative snapshot. Price model and assumptions analysis206. Research-only; no executable quote or historical option-return validation.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/option-chain/IWM?feed=indicative
{"symbol":"QQQ","occ":"QQQ260910C00747000","S":719.1,"K":747,"type":"C","expiry":"2026-09-10","T":0.0164383561643835,"bid":0.01,"ask":0.02,"quote_time":"2026-09-04T19:59:59.68318167Z","bid_size":30,"ask_size":126,"iv":0.1295,"delta":0.0044,"forecast":0.1634886938907712,"fair":0.227880608089162,"low":0.0059716233586948,"high":2.1811813286576296,"net_gap":0.205880608089162,"robust_gap":-0.0160283766413051,"affordable":true,"spread":0.01,"sessions":3,"session_fair":0.08287440183548256,"session_low":0.0008688748378593014,"session_gap":-0.021131125162140697}; Sep4 indicative snapshot. Price model and assumptions analysis206. Research-only; no executable quote or historical option-return validation.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/option-chain/QQQ?feed=indicative
{"symbol":"SOFI","occ":"SOFI260911P00017000","S":18.215,"K":17,"type":"P","expiry":"2026-09-11","T":0.0191780821917808,"bid":0.05,"ask":0.06,"quote_time":"2026-09-04T19:59:59.729938316Z","bid_size":366,"ask_size":1164,"iv":0.4386,"delta":-0.109,"forecast":0.6066404078716822,"fair":0.1680970530718895,"low":0.0539416547061819,"high":0.2631354697767492,"net_gap":0.1060970530718894,"robust_gap":-0.008058345293818,"affordable":true,"spread":0.0099999999999999,"sessions":4,"session_fair":0.13214354996718258,"session_low":0.04087662524856506,"session_gap":-0.021123374751434942}; Sep4 indicative snapshot. Price model and assumptions analysis206. Research-only; no executable quote or historical option-return validation.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/option-chain/SOFI?feed=indicative
{"symbol":"QQQ","occ":"QQQ260909C00741000","S":719.1,"K":741,"type":"C","expiry":"2026-09-09","T":0.0136986301369863,"bid":0.01,"ask":0.02,"quote_time":"2026-09-04T19:59:59.687233582Z","bid_size":146,"ask_size":163,"iv":0.1187,"delta":0.0053,"forecast":0.1634886938907712,"fair":0.3740304769155216,"low":0.0192407432780488,"high":2.573029585062386,"net_gap":0.3520304769155216,"robust_gap":-0.0027592567219511,"affordable":true,"spread":0.01,"sessions":2,"session_fair":0.08147236529108248,"session_low":0.0011253502101720714,"session_gap":-0.020874649789827927}; Sep4 indicative snapshot. Price model and assumptions analysis206. Research-only; no executable quote or historical option-return validation.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/option-chain/QQQ?feed=indicative
{"symbol":"IBIT","occ":"IBIT260911P00040500","S":45.22,"K":40.5,"type":"P","expiry":"2026-09-11","T":0.0191780821917808,"bid":0.01,"ask":0.02,"quote_time":"2026-09-04T19:59:59.895630193Z","bid_size":183,"ask_size":175,"iv":0.4055,"delta":-0.0174,"forecast":0.4759603635462481,"fair":0.0535758275525772,"low":0.0025631328271214,"high":0.1284320548449744,"net_gap":0.0315758275525772,"robust_gap":-0.0194368671728785,"affordable":true,"spread":0.01,"sessions":4,"session_fair":0.03233582762220122,"session_low":0.0011576638013684054,"session_gap":-0.020842336198631593}; Sep4 indicative snapshot. Price model and assumptions analysis206. Research-only; no executable quote or historical option-return validation.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/option-chain/IBIT?feed=indicative
QQQ Calibrated one-session exit simulation, six scenarios = 100000
Options mispricing2026-09-06 00:11
{"contract":"QQQ260908C00731000","S":719.1,"K":731,"bid":0.02,"ask":0.03,"feed_iv":0.0899,"session_calibrated_iv":0.11654877895539736,"seed":20260906,"N":100000,"steps":26,"target":0.08,"stop":0.01,"roundtrip_fee":0.2,"columns":["physical_vol","IV_convergence","win_probability","avg_win_USD","avg_loss_USD","mean_USD","target_probability","stop_probability","unvalidated_quarterKelly"],"rows":[[0.105292,0,0.11017,4.8,2.639326,-1.819736,0.11017,0.88983,0],[0.105292,0.5,0.05731,4.8,2.692063,-2.262693,0.05731,0.94269,0],[0.105292,1,0.0247,4.8,2.825232,-2.636888,0.0247,0.9753,0],[0.163489,0,0.22457,4.8,2.77004,-1.070036,0.22457,0.77543,0],[0.163489,0.5,0.65675,4.8,2.719644,2.218882,0.65675,0.34325,0.115567],[0.163489,1,0.95867,4.8,2.686985,4.490563,0.95867,0.04133,0.233883]],"method":"Synthetic conditional one-sessionGBM, initialIV inverted from0.025mid atT1/252. MarkBSM minus0.005 exitspread, zero floor; targetcapped, stopactualbid. No weekendjump, no liveentry, no optionbacktest."}
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/option-chain/QQQ?feed=indicative
Screen totals, chain anomalies and option-history access = 23778
Options mispricing2026-09-06 00:09
{"contracts":23778,"affordable":4101,"affordable_bid":1882,"calendar_positive":18,"session_positive":0,"parity_flags":687}; Fourteen fully paginated chains expiringSep8-Nov6; 695 adjacent vertical/calendar monotonicity flags; 687 put-call interval flags under assumed0-4%yield/0-6%rates. Modified indicative prices and unsynchronized quotes/corporate actions can explain these. Not tradable arbitrage. /data/option-bars?symbols=QQQ260908C00731000&timeframe=1Day&start=2026-08-01&end=2026-09-05&limit=1000 returned403 OPRA agreement not signed; addingfeed=indicative first returned400 unexpected parameter. Therefore no option-history P&L backtest possible through tested endpoint.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/option-chain/QQQ?feed=indicative