Notes

MeasuredSep5 04UTC. Direct exchange settled records; previousUTCday signal and spot bars; all quantities descriptive except fixed experiment. Ratesbp/day, price returnspercent. {"extreme":{"n":28,"mean_pct":-0.6220532298351821,"win_pct":53.57142857142857},"other":{"n":295,"mean_pct":-0.21930324641857715,"win_pct":49.83050847457628},"extreme_uptrend":{"n":6,"mean_pct":1.5167794581920837,"win_pct":83.33333333333334},"extreme_downtrend":{"n":22,"mean_pct":-1.2053712356608,"win_pct":45.45454545454545}} https://fapi.binance.com/fapi/v1/fundingRate ; https://api.bybit.com/v5/market/funding/history ; https://www.okx.com/api/v5/public/funding-rate-history ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars

MeasuredSep5 04UTC. Direct exchange settled records; previousUTCday signal and spot bars; all quantities descriptive except fixed experiment. Ratesbp/day, price returnspercent. {"overlap":93,"binance_bybit_correlation":0.6594167143336913,"binance_okx_correlation":0.7864971329656122,"binance_bybit_sign_agreement":83.87096774193549,"binance_okx_sign_agreement":90.32258064516128} https://fapi.binance.com/fapi/v1/fundingRate ; https://api.bybit.com/v5/market/funding/history ; https://www.okx.com/api/v5/public/funding-rate-history ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars

MeasuredSep5 04UTC. Direct exchange settled records; previousUTCday signal and spot bars; all quantities descriptive except fixed experiment. Ratesbp/day, price returnspercent. {"binance":{"settlements":2934,"first":"2024-01-01 00:00:00+00:00","last":"2026-09-04 16:00:00.009000+00:00","daily_complete":978,"negative_day_pct":12.269938650306749,"last_day_bp":1.9511000000000003,"mean_daily_bp":1.9335199386503066},"bybit":{"settlements":3000,"first":"2023-12-10 00:00:00+00:00","last":"2026-09-04 16:00:00+00:00","daily_complete":1000,"negative_day_pct":14.000000000000002,"last_day_bp":1.8699,"mean_daily_bp":2.0140990000000003},"okx":{"settlements":281,"first":"2026-06-03 08:00:00+00:00","last":"2026-09-04 16:00:00+00:00","daily_complete":93,"negative_day_pct":12.903225806451612,"last_day_bp":1.246737961504,"mean_daily_bp":1.184673566852226}} https://fapi.binance.com/fapi/v1/fundingRate ; https://api.bybit.com/v5/market/funding/history ; https://www.okx.com/api/v5/public/funding-rate-history ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars

MeasuredSep5 04UTC; fixed154/160, net vectorbt; trade rows preserved in compressed archive. {"symbol":"SOL","tf":"1Hour","partition":"holdout","quantile":0.1,"cost_multiplier":2,"start":"2025-10-14 00:00:00+00:00","end":"2026-09-04 23:00:00+00:00","bars":7823,"return_pct":-64.10559722985161,"drawdown":67.19063135661156,"sample":30,"win_rate":20,"avg_win":5.119761538635547,"avg_loss":5.311831565660522,"mean":-3.225512944801308,"ci95":[-4.974692366067766,-1.3106220431501203],"quarter_kelly_fraction":-2.9651370329810876,"open_terminal":false,"cash_ledger_error":1.8189894035458565e-12} https://fapi.binance.com/fapi/v1/fundingRate ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars

MeasuredSep5 04UTC; fixed154/160, net vectorbt; trade rows preserved in compressed archive. {"symbol":"SOL","tf":"1Hour","partition":"train","quantile":0.2,"cost_multiplier":1,"start":"2024-08-26 16:00:00+00:00","end":"2025-10-10 22:00:00+00:00","bars":9847,"return_pct":-39.75494812933093,"drawdown":61.080365968524866,"sample":40,"win_rate":42.5,"avg_win":5.50294007364561,"avg_loss":5.870509161192283,"mean":-1.036793236386178,"ci95":[-3.147561882281839,0.9932610856678539],"quarter_kelly_fraction":-0.8023458497436557,"open_terminal":false,"cash_ledger_error":1.8189894035458565e-12} https://fapi.binance.com/fapi/v1/fundingRate ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars

MeasuredSep5 04UTC; fixed154/160, net vectorbt; trade rows preserved in compressed archive. {"symbol":"SOL","tf":"1Hour","partition":"train","quantile":0.05,"cost_multiplier":1,"start":"2024-08-26 16:00:00+00:00","end":"2025-10-10 22:00:00+00:00","bars":9847,"return_pct":-9.343399552034715,"drawdown":41.53976694934772,"sample":18,"win_rate":50,"avg_win":6.861362923736977,"avg_loss":7.3402307608596224,"mean":-0.23943391856132268,"ci95":[-3.8153603706611943,3.3513946889840938],"quarter_kelly_fraction":-0.11885174898777962,"open_terminal":false,"cash_ledger_error":1.8189894035458565e-12} https://fapi.binance.com/fapi/v1/fundingRate ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars

MeasuredSep5 04UTC; fixed154/160, net vectorbt; trade rows preserved in compressed archive. {"symbol":"SOL","tf":"1Hour","partition":"holdout","quantile":0.1,"cost_multiplier":1,"start":"2025-10-14 00:00:00+00:00","end":"2026-09-04 23:00:00+00:00","bars":7823,"return_pct":-55.71775975879778,"drawdown":61.324549216845185,"sample":30,"win_rate":30,"avg_win":4.0207271602503845,"avg_loss":5.359893722342115,"mean":-2.5457074575643643,"ci95":[-4.352455429003166,-0.6471895658282496],"quarter_kelly_fraction":-2.9531650596066505,"open_terminal":false,"cash_ledger_error":1.8189894035458565e-12} https://fapi.binance.com/fapi/v1/fundingRate ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars

MeasuredSep5 04UTC; fixed154/160, net vectorbt; trade rows preserved in compressed archive. {"symbol":"SOL","tf":"1Hour","partition":"train","quantile":0.1,"cost_multiplier":1,"start":"2024-08-26 16:00:00+00:00","end":"2025-10-10 22:00:00+00:00","bars":9847,"return_pct":-14.717679400439575,"drawdown":47.02235553595761,"sample":25,"win_rate":48,"avg_win":6.132782069576065,"avg_loss":6.395897423942502,"mean":-0.38213126705359013,"ci95":[-3.1525537979720464,2.4442929168211744],"quarter_kelly_fraction":-0.24355304341185624,"open_terminal":false,"cash_ledger_error":1.8189894035458565e-12} https://fapi.binance.com/fapi/v1/fundingRate ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars

MeasuredSep5 04UTC; fixed154/160, net vectorbt; trade rows preserved in compressed archive. {"symbol":"SOL","tf":"1Day","partition":"holdout","quantile":0.1,"cost_multiplier":1,"start":"2025-10-14 00:00:00+00:00","end":"2026-09-04 00:00:00+00:00","bars":326,"return_pct":-55.1896368834248,"drawdown":60.06658062115767,"sample":30,"win_rate":30,"avg_win":4.161183546649593,"avg_loss":5.359893722342117,"mean":-2.503570541644604,"ci95":[-4.322238288631331,-0.5958313519290267],"quarter_kelly_fraction":-2.806252791604095,"open_terminal":false,"cash_ledger_error":1.8189894035458565e-12} https://fapi.binance.com/fapi/v1/fundingRate ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars

MeasuredSep5 04UTC; fixed154/160, net vectorbt; trade rows preserved in compressed archive. {"symbol":"SOL","tf":"1Day","partition":"train","quantile":0.1,"cost_multiplier":1,"start":"2024-08-26 00:00:00+00:00","end":"2025-10-10 00:00:00+00:00","bars":411,"return_pct":-15.025842497210306,"drawdown":45.69314065931393,"sample":25,"win_rate":48,"avg_win":6.103162038833411,"avg_loss":6.3958974239424995,"mean":-0.3963488818100625,"ci95":[-3.2001851494152542,2.4252309551707216],"quarter_kelly_fraction":-0.2538406991900324,"open_terminal":false,"cash_ledger_error":1.8189894035458565e-12} https://fapi.binance.com/fapi/v1/fundingRate ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars

MeasuredSep5 04UTC; fixed154/160, net vectorbt; trade rows preserved in compressed archive. {"symbol":"ETH","tf":"1Hour","partition":"holdout","quantile":0.1,"cost_multiplier":2,"start":"2025-10-14 00:00:00+00:00","end":"2026-09-04 23:00:00+00:00","bars":7822,"return_pct":-26.653849568026633,"drawdown":34.91176160011451,"sample":19,"win_rate":36.84210526315789,"avg_win":3.322488220844777,"avg_loss":4.3253229372601725,"mean":-1.507708300063612,"ci95":[-3.5515841029959514,0.681831109420714],"quarter_kelly_fraction":-2.622861426336885,"open_terminal":false,"cash_ledger_error":1.8189894035458565e-12} https://fapi.binance.com/fapi/v1/fundingRate ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars

MeasuredSep5 04UTC; fixed154/160, net vectorbt; trade rows preserved in compressed archive. {"symbol":"ETH","tf":"1Hour","partition":"train","quantile":0.2,"cost_multiplier":1,"start":"2024-01-01 00:00:00+00:00","end":"2025-10-10 23:00:00+00:00","bars":15574,"return_pct":-31.00072266040046,"drawdown":41.339860964921236,"sample":27,"win_rate":40.74074074074074,"avg_win":3.586486048809522,"avg_loss":4.549812121495743,"mean":-1.2350239780380428,"ci95":[-3.100993827559109,0.6779564665860957],"quarter_kelly_fraction":-1.8921379181192548,"open_terminal":false,"cash_ledger_error":1.8189894035458565e-12} https://fapi.binance.com/fapi/v1/fundingRate ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars

MeasuredSep5 04UTC; fixed154/160, net vectorbt; trade rows preserved in compressed archive. {"symbol":"ETH","tf":"1Hour","partition":"train","quantile":0.05,"cost_multiplier":1,"start":"2024-01-01 00:00:00+00:00","end":"2025-10-10 23:00:00+00:00","bars":15574,"return_pct":-14.939626313389132,"drawdown":31.572496207128264,"sample":14,"win_rate":42.857142857142854,"avg_win":5.2515905579474795,"avg_loss":5.583311416905838,"mean":-0.9397819991115592,"ci95":[-4.295818550895284,2.4819970740369937],"quarter_kelly_fraction":-0.8012802163154271,"open_terminal":false,"cash_ledger_error":1.8189894035458565e-12} https://fapi.binance.com/fapi/v1/fundingRate ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars

MeasuredSep5 04UTC; fixed154/160, net vectorbt; trade rows preserved in compressed archive. {"symbol":"ETH","tf":"1Hour","partition":"holdout","quantile":0.1,"cost_multiplier":1,"start":"2025-10-14 00:00:00+00:00","end":"2026-09-04 23:00:00+00:00","bars":7822,"return_pct":-16.220236291290966,"drawdown":31.642970314482778,"sample":19,"win_rate":42.10526315789473,"avg_win":3.615324451398019,"avg_loss":4.038497907270158,"mean":-0.8158358615151363,"ci95":[-2.8471765073324637,1.420866288627496],"quarter_kelly_fraction":-1.396933266240843,"open_terminal":false,"cash_ledger_error":1.8189894035458565e-12} https://fapi.binance.com/fapi/v1/fundingRate ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars

MeasuredSep5 04UTC; fixed154/160, net vectorbt; trade rows preserved in compressed archive. {"symbol":"ETH","tf":"1Hour","partition":"train","quantile":0.1,"cost_multiplier":1,"start":"2024-01-01 00:00:00+00:00","end":"2025-10-10 23:00:00+00:00","bars":15574,"return_pct":-21.556906551456233,"drawdown":36.520756713993684,"sample":20,"win_rate":40,"avg_win":4.366100946315249,"avg_loss":4.660534884444056,"mean":-1.0498805521403338,"ci95":[-3.528510638096675,1.393394893821699],"quarter_kelly_fraction":-1.2898831336666592,"open_terminal":false,"cash_ledger_error":1.8189894035458565e-12} https://fapi.binance.com/fapi/v1/fundingRate ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars

MeasuredSep5 04UTC; fixed154/160, net vectorbt; trade rows preserved in compressed archive. {"symbol":"ETH","tf":"1Day","partition":"holdout","quantile":0.1,"cost_multiplier":1,"start":"2025-10-14 00:00:00+00:00","end":"2026-09-04 00:00:00+00:00","bars":326,"return_pct":-15.623693834952867,"drawdown":29.962922885468313,"sample":19,"win_rate":42.10526315789473,"avg_win":3.7114377778242864,"avg_loss":4.03849790727016,"mean":-0.7753670924935507,"ci95":[-2.8727248724471135,1.477692900403912],"quarter_kelly_fraction":-1.2932584585085447,"open_terminal":false,"cash_ledger_error":1.8189894035458565e-12} https://fapi.binance.com/fapi/v1/fundingRate ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars

MeasuredSep5 04UTC; fixed154/160, net vectorbt; trade rows preserved in compressed archive. {"symbol":"ETH","tf":"1Day","partition":"train","quantile":0.1,"cost_multiplier":1,"start":"2024-01-01 00:00:00+00:00","end":"2025-10-10 00:00:00+00:00","bars":649,"return_pct":-22.90694810035395,"drawdown":38.095260444649846,"sample":20,"win_rate":35,"avg_win":4.970105142956419,"avg_loss":4.417854989476356,"mean":-1.1320689431248847,"ci95":[-3.5637869158165087,1.386125015807659],"quarter_kelly_fraction":-1.2889493503232377,"open_terminal":false,"cash_ledger_error":1.8189894035458565e-12} https://fapi.binance.com/fapi/v1/fundingRate ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars

MeasuredSep5 04UTC; fixed154/160, net vectorbt; trade rows preserved in compressed archive. {"symbol":"BTC","tf":"1Hour","partition":"holdout","quantile":0.1,"cost_multiplier":2,"start":"2025-10-14 00:00:00+00:00","end":"2026-09-04 23:00:00+00:00","bars":7823,"return_pct":-17.281279901086677,"drawdown":27.41784676306497,"sample":19,"win_rate":47.368421052631575,"avg_win":2.5552892536405643,"avg_loss":4.059689867411138,"mean":-0.9262787048077002,"ci95":[-2.5490403160525745,0.7339809872391545],"quarter_kelly_fraction":-2.2322804827467175,"open_terminal":false,"cash_ledger_error":1.8189894035458565e-12} https://fapi.binance.com/fapi/v1/fundingRate ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars

MeasuredSep5 04UTC; fixed154/160, net vectorbt; trade rows preserved in compressed archive. {"symbol":"BTC","tf":"1Hour","partition":"train","quantile":0.2,"cost_multiplier":1,"start":"2024-01-01 00:00:00+00:00","end":"2025-10-10 23:00:00+00:00","bars":15573,"return_pct":16.213016985454566,"drawdown":16.995524387605887,"sample":20,"win_rate":60,"avg_win":4.03837285237789,"avg_loss":3.9188915253898005,"mean":0.8554671012708136,"ci95":[-1.0623426181020228,2.831335437625995],"quarter_kelly_fraction":1.3513681067625818,"open_terminal":false,"cash_ledger_error":3.637978807091713e-12} https://fapi.binance.com/fapi/v1/fundingRate ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars

MeasuredSep5 04UTC; fixed154/160, net vectorbt; trade rows preserved in compressed archive. {"symbol":"BTC","tf":"1Hour","partition":"train","quantile":0.05,"cost_multiplier":1,"start":"2024-01-01 00:00:00+00:00","end":"2025-10-10 23:00:00+00:00","bars":15573,"return_pct":13.519547569900636,"drawdown":9.639050122948333,"sample":14,"win_rate":57.14285714285714,"avg_win":4.309754813273531,"avg_loss":3.3875408071747026,"mean":1.0109138330814307,"ci95":[-1.3127778724073667,3.4236531663450385],"quarter_kelly_fraction":1.7310796425930377,"open_terminal":false,"cash_ledger_error":1.8189894035458565e-12} https://fapi.binance.com/fapi/v1/fundingRate ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars

MeasuredSep5 04UTC; fixed154/160, net vectorbt; trade rows preserved in compressed archive. {"symbol":"BTC","tf":"1Hour","partition":"holdout","quantile":0.1,"cost_multiplier":1,"start":"2025-10-14 00:00:00+00:00","end":"2026-09-04 23:00:00+00:00","bars":7823,"return_pct":-5.514402823344822,"drawdown":22.96892955424241,"sample":19,"win_rate":47.368421052631575,"avg_win":3.2757027686202886,"avg_loss":3.385744168911633,"mean":-0.23032193534388068,"ci95":[-1.9178835983117992,1.3968755223540728],"quarter_kelly_fraction":-0.5191784803233963,"open_terminal":false,"cash_ledger_error":3.637978807091713e-12} https://fapi.binance.com/fapi/v1/fundingRate ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars

MeasuredSep5 04UTC; fixed154/160, net vectorbt; trade rows preserved in compressed archive. {"symbol":"BTC","tf":"1Hour","partition":"train","quantile":0.1,"cost_multiplier":1,"start":"2024-01-01 00:00:00+00:00","end":"2025-10-10 23:00:00+00:00","bars":15573,"return_pct":13.83697777317403,"drawdown":11.58488178480308,"sample":18,"win_rate":61.111111111111114,"avg_win":3.624164190242316,"avg_loss":3.604506050018911,"mean":0.8130146523629502,"ci95":[-1.1622306034117138,2.836431860429864],"quarter_kelly_fraction":1.555911023097079,"open_terminal":false,"cash_ledger_error":3.637978807091713e-12} https://fapi.binance.com/fapi/v1/fundingRate ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars

MeasuredSep5 04UTC; fixed154/160, net vectorbt; trade rows preserved in compressed archive. {"symbol":"BTC","tf":"1Day","partition":"holdout","quantile":0.1,"cost_multiplier":1,"start":"2025-10-14 00:00:00+00:00","end":"2026-09-04 00:00:00+00:00","bars":326,"return_pct":-6.9180930956961095,"drawdown":22.964373866351174,"sample":19,"win_rate":47.368421052631575,"avg_win":3.1099265236381313,"avg_loss":3.385744168911627,"mean":-0.3088475250722679,"ci95":[-1.9866778820218434,1.3415138183807103],"quarter_kelly_fraction":-0.7332969297772567,"open_terminal":false,"cash_ledger_error":1.8189894035458565e-12} https://fapi.binance.com/fapi/v1/fundingRate ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars

MeasuredSep5 04UTC; fixed154/160, net vectorbt; trade rows preserved in compressed archive. {"symbol":"BTC","tf":"1Day","partition":"train","quantile":0.1,"cost_multiplier":1,"start":"2024-01-01 00:00:00+00:00","end":"2025-10-10 00:00:00+00:00","bars":649,"return_pct":15.932474587140133,"drawdown":13.155968901041748,"sample":18,"win_rate":55.55555555555556,"avg_win":4.3286615808706035,"avg_loss":3.316734660570822,"mean":0.9307076957855253,"ci95":[-1.135897163804005,3.1208443107282804],"quarter_kelly_fraction":1.6206489450300192,"open_terminal":false,"cash_ledger_error":1.8189894035458565e-12} https://fapi.binance.com/fapi/v1/fundingRate ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars

MeasuredSep5 about04:05 versus02:11 observations1187-1189. Direct exchange snapshots, not global OI or net directional leverage. Forecast distinct from settled rate. Exact logarithmic decomposition verified to1e-10. {"symbol":"SOL","contracts":2831991.100000001,"coin":2831991.100000001,"oi_usd":288211734.2470001,"oi_ts":"1788581099675","implied_mark":101.77,"prior_mark":101.81,"contracts_change_pct":0.30684036819963456,"price_change_pct":-0.03928887142717885,"usd_change_pct":0.2674309426547117,"log_qty_change":0.0030637057390887467,"log_price_change":-0.00039296591526428423,"log_usd_change":0.0026707398238245083,"forecast_bp":-0.480785528744,"settled_bp":-0.852468622903,"funding_ts":"1788581050877"} https://www.okx.com/api/v5/public/open-interest ; https://www.okx.com/api/v5/public/funding-rate