PDF header page1 is17October2024, correcting23October2024in17167. Goal remains24March2025, unaffected. Corrected event artifact before backtest; retrieval clock2026-09-09.
https://telixpharma.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/TLX_Telix_Q3_2024_Revenue_and_Business_Update.pdf
RARE Original DTX401 advance notice recovered for T20 entry = 23
Catalyst run-ups2026-09-09 04:08
Original issuerFeb23 2026release confirmsAug23 2026PDUFA; supersedes temporary historical-vintage gap in17180. Enough advance notice for plannedJul27 T20entry, exact calendar determined bySPYsession index. LaterAug4Q2reaffirmation cannot be mistaken for original announcement.
https://ir.ultragenyx.com/node/18466
MIRM Ctexli earlier FDA public date supersedes issuer-only timestamp = 35
Catalyst run-ups2026-09-09 04:08
FDA immediate release Feb21 2025, goalMar28 verified advanceJan13 issuer https://ir.mirumpharma.com/news/news-details/2025/Mirum-Pharmaceuticals-Announces-Preliminary-Unaudited-2024-Net-Product-Sales-and-Cash-Balance-and-Provides-Corporate-Updates/default.aspx . 35calendar days early; issuer approval PR datedFeb24 is32days early but not earliest public news. PreviousDec28 2024goal superseded. FDA multidisciplinePDF apparent2028 extension-year typo resolved by dated advance issuer2025Mar28 and FDA administrativeotherreview03/28/2025. Both T20/T6 andT10/T2 windows skip resolved catalyst.
https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-approves-first-treatment-cerebrotendinous-xanthomatosis-rare-lipid-storage-disease
RARE Aspire publication metadata and overlapping risk attribution = 17
Catalyst run-ups2026-09-09 04:05
Retrieved2026-09-09 04:05UTC. Direct HTML JSON-LD datePublished2026-09-02T16:01:36-0400; issuer metadata not guaranteed earliest disclosure. Phase3 Aspire missed primary Bayley4 and key secondary MDRI. This was 17calendar days before UX111 Sep19 goal, not an early UX111 FDA decision. Aug4 advance source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1515673/000119312526332802/rare-ex99_1.htm had already scheduled Aspire September/October. Ledger enteredSep2 14:31UTC, news20:01:36UTC, exitSep3 13:45:56UTC at13.98976 vsentry25.84/stop24. Loss45.8600619%,6.44035plannedR. No concurrent executable quote means cannot estimate order-type slippage.
https://ir.ultragenyx.com/news-releases/news-release-details/ultragenyx-announces-phase-3-aspire-results-angelman-syndrome
NUVL Paired FDA goal and announcement date: zidesamtinib = 58
Catalyst run-ups2026-09-09 04:04
{"symbol":"NUVL","drug":"zidesamtinib","target":"2026-09-18","notice":"2025-11-19","announcement":"2026-07-22","earliest_us":"2026-07-22","outcome":"approval","target_source":"https://investors.nuvalent.com/2025-11-19-Nuvalent-Announces-FDA-Acceptance-of-New-Drug-Application-for-Zidesamtinib-for-the-Treatment-of-TKI-Pre-treated-Patients-with-Advanced-ROS1-positive-NSCLC","news_source":"https://www.gsk.com/en-gb/media/press-releases/jideytro-zidesamtinib-approved-in-the-us-for-previously-treated-ros1-positive-non-small-cell-lung-cancer/","caveat":"58days early; GSK announcement and FDA origin confirm. NUVL bars stopJul14; no invented tradability. Resolved before both entry windows."} Measured2026-09-09; value calendar days target minus publisher-local announcement date. Sources are sponsor/SEC, participant with favorable framing, not independent statistical corroboration. Selected six-issuer case series, not population denominator.
https://investors.nuvalent.com/2025-11-19-Nuvalent-Announces-FDA-Acceptance-of-New-Drug-Application-for-Zidesamtinib-for-the-Treatment-of-TKI-Pre-treated-Patients-with-Advanced-ROS1-positive-NSCLC
RARE Paired FDA goal and announcement date: DTX401 = 4
Catalyst run-ups2026-09-09 04:04
{"symbol":"RARE","drug":"DTX401","target":"2026-08-23","notice":"2026-08-04","announcement":"2026-08-19","earliest_us":"2026-08-19","outcome":"approval","target_source":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1515673/000119312526332802/rare-ex99_1.htm","news_source":"https://ir.ultragenyx.com/news-releases/news-release-details/ultragenyx-announces-us-fda-approval-genglycostm-gene-therapy","caveat":"Latest Q2 notice not early enough for T20 entry; must recover original February notice before including early rule. FDA confirms Aug19 https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/genglycos ."} Measured2026-09-09; value calendar days target minus publisher-local announcement date. Sources are sponsor/SEC, participant with favorable framing, not independent statistical corroboration. Selected six-issuer case series, not population denominator.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1515673/000119312526332802/rare-ex99_1.htm
IONS Paired FDA goal and announcement date: olezarsen sHTG = 6
Catalyst run-ups2026-09-09 04:04
{"symbol":"IONS","drug":"olezarsen sHTG","target":"2026-06-30","notice":"2026-04-29","announcement":"2026-06-24","earliest_us":"2026-06-24","outcome":"approval","target_source":"https://ir.ionis.com/news-releases/news-release-details/ionis-reports-first-quarter-2026-financial-results-and","news_source":"https://ir.ionis.com/news-releases/news-release-details/tryngolzar-olezarsen-approved-fda-first-and-only-treatment","caveat":"Six calendar days early; exact public minute unverified; call15:30ET not first-news proof."} Measured2026-09-09; value calendar days target minus publisher-local announcement date. Sources are sponsor/SEC, participant with favorable framing, not independent statistical corroboration. Selected six-issuer case series, not population denominator.
https://ir.ionis.com/news-releases/news-release-details/ionis-reports-first-quarter-2026-financial-results-and
SRRK Paired FDA goal and announcement date: apitegromab = -1
Catalyst run-ups2026-09-09 04:04
{"symbol":"SRRK","drug":"apitegromab","target":"2025-09-22","notice":"2025-05-14","announcement":"2025-09-23","earliest_us":"2025-09-23","outcome":"CRL","target_source":"https://investors.scholarrock.com/news-releases/news-release-details/scholar-rock-reports-first-quarter-2025-financial-results-and/","news_source":"https://investors.scholarrock.com/news-releases/news-release-details/fda-issues-complete-response-letter-crl-apitegromab-treatment/","caveat":"Later issuer January2026 https://investors.scholarrock.com/node/11666/pdf says receipt Sep22. Receipt != publication."} Measured2026-09-09; value calendar days target minus publisher-local announcement date. Sources are sponsor/SEC, participant with favorable framing, not independent statistical corroboration. Selected six-issuer case series, not population denominator.
https://investors.scholarrock.com/news-releases/news-release-details/scholar-rock-reports-first-quarter-2025-financial-results-and/
TLX Paired FDA goal and announcement date: Zircaix = -1
Catalyst run-ups2026-09-09 04:04
{"symbol":"TLX","drug":"Zircaix","target":"2025-08-27","notice":"2025-04-22","announcement":"2025-08-28","earliest_us":"2025-08-27","outcome":"CRL","target_source":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2007191/000200719125000047/q1bizupdate.htm","news_source":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2007191/000200719125000065/zircprcrl.htm","caveat":"Australian Aug28 date may be Aug27 US; do not infer a one-day FDA delay."} Measured2026-09-09; value calendar days target minus publisher-local announcement date. Sources are sponsor/SEC, participant with favorable framing, not independent statistical corroboration. Selected six-issuer case series, not population denominator.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2007191/000200719125000047/q1bizupdate.htm
IONS Paired FDA goal and announcement date: donidalorsen = 0
Catalyst run-ups2026-09-09 04:04
{"symbol":"IONS","drug":"donidalorsen","target":"2025-08-21","notice":"2025-04-30","announcement":"2025-08-21","earliest_us":"2025-08-21","outcome":"approval","target_source":"https://ir.ionis.com/news-releases/news-release-details/ionis-reports-first-quarter-2025-financial-results","news_source":"https://ir.ionis.com/node/32936","caveat":"FDA date independently Aug21 https://www.fda.gov/drugs/drug-trials-snapshots/drug-trials-snapshots-dawnzera . Call12:15ET is not announcement minute."} Measured2026-09-09; value calendar days target minus publisher-local announcement date. Sources are sponsor/SEC, participant with favorable framing, not independent statistical corroboration. Selected six-issuer case series, not population denominator.
https://ir.ionis.com/news-releases/news-release-details/ionis-reports-first-quarter-2025-financial-results
RARE Paired FDA goal and announcement date: UX111 = 38
Catalyst run-ups2026-09-09 04:04
{"symbol":"RARE","drug":"UX111","target":"2025-08-18","notice":"2025-05-06","announcement":"2025-07-11","earliest_us":"2025-07-11","outcome":"CRL","target_source":"https://ir.ultragenyx.com/static-files/416b3219-9abc-4fe1-a04c-49f6876f416c","news_source":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1515673/000095017025095334/rare-20250711.htm","caveat":"Resolved before both preregistered entry windows; skip instead of postdecision run-up."} Measured2026-09-09; value calendar days target minus publisher-local announcement date. Sources are sponsor/SEC, participant with favorable framing, not independent statistical corroboration. Selected six-issuer case series, not population denominator.
https://ir.ultragenyx.com/static-files/416b3219-9abc-4fe1-a04c-49f6876f416c
TLX Paired FDA goal and announcement date: Pixclara = -2
Catalyst run-ups2026-09-09 04:04
{"symbol":"TLX","drug":"Pixclara","target":"2025-04-26","notice":"2024-10-24","announcement":"2025-04-28","earliest_us":"2025-04-27","outcome":"CRL","target_source":"https://ir.telixpharma.com/news-releases/news-release-details/fda-accepts-new-drug-application-and-grants-priority-review","news_source":"https://ir.telixpharma.com/static-files/a6805025-6bd2-4ee9-971a-c2e353c81b7e","caveat":"Australian date Apr28; US calendar may Apr27; exact receipt and first public timestamp unresolved."} Measured2026-09-09; value calendar days target minus publisher-local announcement date. Sources are sponsor/SEC, participant with favorable framing, not independent statistical corroboration. Selected six-issuer case series, not population denominator.
https://ir.telixpharma.com/news-releases/news-release-details/fda-accepts-new-drug-application-and-grants-priority-review
TLX Paired FDA goal and announcement date: Gozellix = 3
Catalyst run-ups2026-09-09 04:04
{"symbol":"TLX","drug":"Gozellix","target":"2025-03-24","notice":"2024-10-23","announcement":"2025-03-21","earliest_us":"2025-03-20","outcome":"approval","target_source":"https://telixpharma.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/TLX_Telix_Q3_2024_Revenue_and_Business_Update.pdf","news_source":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2007191/000200719125000037/goz6k.htm","caveat":"Melbourne release Mar21; SEC signed Mar20. Treat first US date as Mar20-Mar21 interval, not precise timestamp."} Measured2026-09-09; value calendar days target minus publisher-local announcement date. Sources are sponsor/SEC, participant with favorable framing, not independent statistical corroboration. Selected six-issuer case series, not population denominator.
https://telixpharma.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/TLX_Telix_Q3_2024_Revenue_and_Business_Update.pdf
DRI Six-event OLS and cash-denominator payoff audit = 0.16129885708031794
ITX.MC Foreign calendar-shortlist quote with native currency = 56.52
Catalyst run-ups2026-09-09 02:16
{"symbol":"ITX.MC","currency":"EUR","exchange":"MCE","price":56.52,"previousClose":56.16,"changePct":0.6410256410256527,"asOf":"2026-09-08T15:35:07.000Z"} Provider chartPreviousClose is range baseline and returned changePct must NOT be called day return without separate verification. KGF/NXT GBp,notGBP;JapanJPY,InditexEUR. Provider asOf preserved;notvenue-executablequote,FX/lot/eligibilityunverified. Researchonly.
https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v8/finance/chart/ITX.MC?range=5d&interval=1d
NXT.L Foreign calendar-shortlist quote with native currency = 15245
Catalyst run-ups2026-09-09 02:16
{"symbol":"NXT.L","currency":"GBp","exchange":"LSE","price":15245,"previousClose":15385,"changePct":-0.9099772505687357,"asOf":"2026-09-08T15:55:47.000Z"} Provider chartPreviousClose is range baseline and returned changePct must NOT be called day return without separate verification. KGF/NXT GBp,notGBP;JapanJPY,InditexEUR. Provider asOf preserved;notvenue-executablequote,FX/lot/eligibilityunverified. Researchonly.
https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v8/finance/chart/NXT.L?range=5d&interval=1d
KGF.L Foreign calendar-shortlist quote with native currency = 297.1
Catalyst run-ups2026-09-09 02:16
{"symbol":"KGF.L","currency":"GBp","exchange":"LSE","price":297.1,"previousClose":309.3,"changePct":-3.94439055932751,"asOf":"2026-09-08T15:47:43.000Z"} Provider chartPreviousClose is range baseline and returned changePct must NOT be called day return without separate verification. KGF/NXT GBp,notGBP;JapanJPY,InditexEUR. Provider asOf preserved;notvenue-executablequote,FX/lot/eligibilityunverified. Researchonly.
https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v8/finance/chart/KGF.L?range=5d&interval=1d
1928.T Foreign calendar-shortlist quote with native currency = 3298
Catalyst run-ups2026-09-09 02:16
{"symbol":"1928.T","currency":"JPY","exchange":"JPX","price":3298,"previousClose":3402,"changePct":-3.0570252792475014,"asOf":"2026-09-09T01:53:36.000Z"} Provider chartPreviousClose is range baseline and returned changePct must NOT be called day return without separate verification. KGF/NXT GBp,notGBP;JapanJPY,InditexEUR. Provider asOf preserved;notvenue-executablequote,FX/lot/eligibilityunverified. Researchonly.
https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v8/finance/chart/1928.T?range=5d&interval=1d
2678.T Foreign calendar-shortlist quote with native currency = 1253
Catalyst run-ups2026-09-09 02:16
{"symbol":"2678.T","currency":"JPY","exchange":"JPX","price":1253,"previousClose":1276,"changePct":-1.8025078369905956,"asOf":"2026-09-09T01:52:21.000Z"} Provider chartPreviousClose is range baseline and returned changePct must NOT be called day return without separate verification. KGF/NXT GBp,notGBP;JapanJPY,InditexEUR. Provider asOf preserved;notvenue-executablequote,FX/lot/eligibilityunverified. Researchonly.
https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v8/finance/chart/2678.T?range=5d&interval=1d
DRI Completed September8 technical state and empirical uncertainty = 212.92
Catalyst run-ups2026-09-09 02:15
{"technical":{"asof":"2026-09-08","close":212.92,"sma20":219.5185,"sma50":209.3456,"return5_pct":-0.6254083823392209,"atr14":5.449042857142857,"adr20":5.451034999999999,"rv20_ann_pct":30.887371218775694,"low20":210.86,"high20":229.7625,"dollarvolume20":209531714.037,"whole_shares_cap":0},"baseline":{"p":0.5,"W":3.2167731752902253,"L":1.3144472412651673,"mean":0.9511629670125291,"quarterKelly":0.0739221352564525},"CI95":[-0.8284968974878201,2.9660109772784935],"simulation":{"seed":20260909,"paths":50000,"events_per_path":10,"terminal_p05_p50_p95":[47.66417933479802,53.80061315131777,61.1114888590587],"probability_terminal_loss":0.11128,"drawdown_p95_pct":7.452248274684275}} 1196 daily bars Dec2021–Sep8 2026. ATR14 simple rolling true-range mean; ADR20 high-low mean; RV20 logstdsqrt252. Zero whole shares under49.14 fund cap. Estimated quarterKelly is descriptive, operational fraction0 while CI/notice/execution gates fail. Simulation resamples six observed whole-event cash returns; cannot simulate unobserved binary gaps.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=DRI&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all
2678.T ASKUL September15 scheduled earnings and customer-service context = 15