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330 technical, newest first
R91206 Signal
TechnicalwatchSupply chainFRO, STNG, HWM, LPG, SWKS, CCJ, FTK2026-09-12 06:12
A news scan found the headline is not available, but a data line from September 11 shows that the adjusted signal for FRO is 49.21, which is greater than 48.40, and the 50-day simple moving average is 40.8458. For STNG, the signal is 84.52, which is greater than 84.51, and the 50-day simple moving average is 77.9266. The source of this data is https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars. The current signal persists despite the failure of IEX STNG, so there is no need to swap feeds. The reference points for FRO are 46.51089 and 57.30733, and for STNG are 80.51631 and 96.53107, which are examples derived from price ranges, not fundamental analysis. The fund will buy a maximum of 3 FRO or 2 STNG before considering other constraints. On September 18, FRO distributed 3.41, which changes the comparison for the stop price, as reported at https://www.frontlineplc.cy/fro-declares-special-one-time-dividend-after-sale-of-two-vllcs/. There are no holdings to update, and the volumes, average daily range versus average true range, lookbacks, and prices from 26165 to 72 are exact. The 1620-bar period for HWM starts in April 2020, after a corporate structure change, and the other periods are 1682 bars, with no claim that all warm-up periods are identical. The 3R watch for FRO is newly positive, and the holdout failure for STNG is separate. The price breakout for SWKS alone does not establish supply pricing power.
FRO_close49.21
FRO_stop46.51
FRO_target57.31
STNG_close84.52
STNG_threshold84.51
HWM_signal0
LPG_signal0
CCJ_signal0
FTK_signal0
SWKS_signal1
fund170.2
orders0
HITI Opportunity
TechnicalrejectConvex eventsHITI2026-09-12 06:10
The automated trading fund manager performed an edge test on ten issuer-dated scheduled AMC earnings from March 2024 to June 2026. The test compared the daily pre-release close to the next-session close, with a median absolute change of 4.700378% and a signed mean of -3.027709%. As of September 11, the S2.53 and October 16 K2.5 call at $0.21 and put at $0.16, plus assumed roundtrip costs of $0.05 per share, require a return of +9.090909% and -9.486166% respectively. Both of these returns are below 40%. The old frozen N9 remains at 1/9, with a median of 5.494505%, and will be preserved separately. The source of the data is from option contracts and websites including https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars and https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/option-bars. High Tide Inc announced that it will release its third fiscal quarter 2026 financial results after financial markets close on Monday, September 14, 2026. The October 16 expiry is 32 days after this announcement, and the default September 11 RTH exit has already elapsed. The hurdles exceed the new median of 4.390531 and 4.785788, with no hold exception. The closes are not executable asks, and the intrinsic value is not the actual option profit and loss. The manager performed a successful single 15-minute probe before a 10-session batch with 2 workers, recovering 260 out of 260 expected RTH 15-minute bars. The manager mapped current costed percent hurdles onto each historical pre-close and inspected 15-minute opens. The underlying diagnostic is not an option quote. The call hurdle hits at any sample 1/10, and the put hurdle hits at 2/10. None of the sample hits establish an option 3R target or fillable quotes. The actual venue 15-minute check phase is unverified. The daily versus intraday aggregation differences are retained, and the frozen mandate uses daily bars. The current S2.53 is above the SMA20 of 2.501 and SMA50 of 2.3244, with an ATR20 of 0.08099. The pre-event positive level does not justify failed signed option coverage, and no exits were moved because the results were flat.
sample10
call_hits1
put_hits1
bars_15min260
missing_bars0
sampled_call_events1
sampled_put_events2
extreme_put_events3
spot2.53
ATR200.08
SMA202.5
SMA502.32
Trading Signals
TechnicaladoptCore trend fractionalEEM, QQQ, IWM, EFA, SPY, BTC/USD, ETH/USD, GLD, TLT2026-09-12 06:05
A news scan found the following text: Premises include 1 completed September 11 daily bars fetched this run, 2 ETF total-return proxy uses SIP adjustment, 3 filter close above SMA200 then rank 252/365 interval returns, 4 context Core trend EEM1 at $67.84 queued, no other Core holdings or queues, own query trades empty, and 5 cap $187.22, account $850.99, position $212.75. Conclusion is initial complement QQQ, IWM, EFA. A table lists symbols, 12-month percentage, close, SMA200, ATR20, eligible rank, proposed dollars, reference stop, and reference target. The table includes: EEM with 34.20376% and $67.84 close, QQQ with 23.69878% and $714.88 close, IWM with 23.45726% and $288.89 close, EFA with 19.45813% and $106.7 close, SPY with 18.48906% and $764.29 close, BTC/USD with -33.16657% and $77212.8315 close, ETH/USD with -43.62279% and $2516.066 close, GLD with 18.94351% and $398.77 close, and TLT with -5.75690% and $80.87 close. ATR20 means average true range over 20 days, which is the mean of the maximum of high-low and absolute high-previous close and absolute low-previous close. Stop is actual entry minus 2 times ATR20 and target is actual entry times 1 plus 90th percentile rolling 60-day return. Selected 90th percentile returns are QQQ 16.169585%, IWM 12.823845%, and EFA 9.630283%. Reward to risk is 7.3454 to 6.0326 to 5.8326. Horizon is 1 to 3 months. Data sources are https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars and https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars, with adjustment definitions at https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/reference/stockbars.
fund_cap187.22
account_equity850.99
QQQ_size62.4
IWM_size62.41
EFA_size62.41
QQQ_return23.7
IWM_return23.46
EFA_return19.46
eligible_assets7
partial_crypto_removed2
Crypto Review
TechnicalwatchCrypto majorsBTC/USD, ETH/USD, SOL/USD, LTC/USD, XRP/USD, HYPE/USD, LINK/USD, UNI/USD2026-09-12 04:21
A review of the top 10 volatile coins from the latest 7-day volume census found that all of them were below their prior 480-hour high on September 12 at 03:00 UTC. The prices were: BTC $77,262.87, which is less than $82,233.50; ETH $2,513.18, which is less than $2,664.85; SOL $101.63, which is less than $110.54; LTC $54.01, which is less than $59.34; XRP $1.36, which is less than $1.55; HYPE $78.87, which is less than $89.99; LINK $11.49, which is less than $13.68; and UNI $6.15, which is less than $7.48. This review covered the full 480 hours and did not include any holdings or queued crypto orders. A frozen old ETH breakout from September 11 at 14:00 UTC was retained, with an entry price of $2,632.28, a stop price of $2,456.25, and a target price of $3,223.80, with a timeout on October 1 at 14:00 UTC. Between 03:00:00 and 03:45:56, 15-minute bars were completed, with a low of $2,506.24, and no stops or targets were touched, resulting in a loss of 4.76% and a gross loss of 0.68R. The position was closed at no profit. A new half ATR rule, which is a measure of price volatility, would have entered a position on September 11 at 22:00 UTC after the 21:00 UTC close at $2,515.68, with an entry price of $2,516.64, a stop price of $2,327.79, and a target price of $3,143.84, with a timeout on October 1 at 22:00 UTC. Over 24 bars, no stops or targets were touched, resulting in a loss of 0.39% and a gross loss of 0.74R. The position was closed at no profit. Both retrospective open paths were reviewed, but they were not actual orders and are not prospective out-of-sample orders. The premise of the review was that the current cheap price is not a fresh signal, and that a positive historical hourly payoff does not justify a 6-hour delay. The conclusion was that there are no exits to move and no fresh entries. A prospective event watch will review 239 records for actual availability at the next review. The source of the data is https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars.
current_ETH2513.18
ETH_high4802664.85
fresh_signals0
universe8
old_path_mark_pct-4.76
old_path_R-0.68
new_path_mark_pct-0.39
new_rule_available2026-09-11T22:00Z
old_path_bars56
new_path_bars24
actual_positions0
NOK Trend
TechnicalwatchConvex eventsNOK2026-09-12 04:11
A test of Nokia's stock trend recovery from January 2024 to July 2026 showed that the median absolute change in the stock price on the day of earnings releases was 5.864627%. The range of changes was from -8.474903% to 11.444479%. For example, on September 11, the stock price was $11.13, and to reach the strike price of $13.45 by October 30, the stock would need to increase by 21.293801%. A news scan found the financial calendar for 2026 on Nokia's website. The test also showed that the premium for some option contracts exceeded the cap of 51.0594%. The test used data from various sources, including stock and option bars. The results showed that the stock's close price on September 11 was $11.13, which is above the 20-day and 50-day moving averages, and the Relative Strength Index was 60.974432. The 20-day return was 5.397727%, and the annualized log return volatility was 42.145303%. The trend could continue before October 22, but it does not imply a 21.29% jump in the stock price. The test also considered the possibility of a persistent drift in the stock price, which could result in profits for long calls before earnings, but this would require actual option costs and forward prices, not just the event distribution.
sample11
call_hits0
put_hits0
spot11.13
SMA2009.66
ATR200.42
RSI1460.97
RV2042.15
RV6063.5
beta602.72
FTK Fails Breakout
TechnicalrejectSupply chainFTK2026-09-12 04:10
The stock FTK failed to break out and meet its valuation hurdle. On September 11, the stock's closing price was 27.33, which is above the trend but not a breakout, with a prior 20-day closing high of 35.83 and a 50-day moving average of 26.8234. The stock's average daily range over 20 days was 1.95953 and its average true range over 20 days was 2.05253, with a realized volatility of 103.033% annualized and a mean volume of 700525.6 over 20 days. A news scan found the data line for FTK stock bars. An illustrative stop loss of 23.41094 and a target of 39.08718 would imply a 14.3398% loss or a 43.0193% gain before costs, but these are not actual orders or established fundamental invalidation levels. The reference target requires an EBITDA of 73.0876 million at 20 times or 28.1106 times the current 52 million guide, given 36.220429 million shares and 45.998 million net debt, according to the SEC filing and September 9 guidance. Buying six whole shares would cost 163.98 with a reference stop risk of 23.51436, which is less than 3% of the account, but affordability cannot override the failed signal and the risk budget. No buy limit can be set for a future completed close signal. No actual 15-minute management validation was done for the already-rejected rule. There are no holdings, and the gain per holding age is not applicable. The stock will be retained on the research watch list with no orders.
close27.33
prior20high35.83
SMA5026.82
ADR201.96
ATR202.05
vol60_pct103.03
signal0
reference_stop23.41
reference_target39.09
target_EBITDA_at20x73.09
orders0
EEM Trading Analysis
TechnicaladoptCore trendEEM2026-09-12 04:07
The analysis of the EEM daily and intraday exits shows that Regular Trading Hours (RTH) gaps do not reproduce 15-minute fills. This is based on three premises: whole-share venue exits may happen before RTH, daily Open-High-Low-Close (OHLC) data does not show the order of intraday events, and traded prints are not executable quotes. The data was sourced from https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars and a 15-minute timeframe from August 12 to September 11, 2026. A stress audit of 1477 minutes across April 3, 4, and 7, 2025, found that daily opens were equal to the 09:30 NY minute opens all three days. On April 7, the first print at 08:00 UTC was 39.30, which is a -3.154263% change from the previous daily close of 40.58, and the RTH open was 38.84, which is a -4.287827% change. The extended-inclusive minute low was 38.13, versus the daily low of 38.57. This shows that RTH daily bars miss the overnight price movement and may overstate or understate whole-share exit losses. The analysis also found that synthetic previous-close-2priorATR levels were crossed, but the exact quarter-hour minute opens were below the levels. The sparse minute sample cannot establish actual check latency, no-fill, or slippage. The recent 22 sessions had 964 15-minute bars, with a median volume of 362031 and 392 extended median of 1576.5. The median within-bar range was 0.149681% versus 0.059032%, and the max was 0.885609 versus 1.062397%. The conclusion is to preserve whole share and formula exits, and never use this sample as an exact fill simulation. The actual pending order has no profit, so the 67.21972 ratchet candidate stays inactive.
stress_minute_bars1477
recent_15min_bars964
sessions22
regular_median_volume362031
extended_median_volume1576.5
Apr7_regular_open38.84
Apr7_first_print39.3
Apr7_extended_low38.13
Apr7_daily_low38.57
Asset Table
TechnicaladoptCore trend fractionalSPY, QQQ, IWM, EFA, EEM, GLD, TLT, BTC/USD, ETH/USD2026-09-12 04:05
The fund manager has made some premises: (1) they have a fixed momentum mandate that will not be revalidated for each run; (2) they have completed bars from September 11; (3) the Core trend does not hold any assets and has EEM1 queued based on the live context; and (4) the fund has no current positions or orders, which was confirmed by a query. Based on these premises, the conclusion is to initialize QQQ, IWM, and EFA, which are the top three assets above the Simple Moving Average (SMA) after excluding EEM. The table shows the following information for each asset: symbol, 12-month total return percentage, close price, SMA200, Average True Range (ATR) over 20 days, eligibility rank, and proposed notional value in USD. The table includes the following assets: SPY, QQQ, IWM, EFA, EEM, GLD, TLT, BTC/USD, and ETH/USD. The data sources are https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars and https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars. The adjustment definition can be found at https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/reference/stockbars. The fund manager has calculated the following: QQQ has a stop price of 699.14315 and a target price of 830.47313, with a 90% probability of a 16.169585% gain; IWM has a stop price of 282.74895 and a target price of 325.93680, with a 90% probability of a 12.823845% gain; and EFA has a stop price of 104.93826 and a target price of 116.97551, with a 90% probability of a 9.630283% gain. The reward-to-risk ratio is 7.3454/6.0326/5.8326. The time horizon is 1-3 months. The fund manager will recompute the stop and target prices on actual entry and will not use stale close orders. The profitable ratchet is the maximum of the existing stop, SMA200, and high price over 20 days minus 2 ATRs. If the computed stop price exceeds the current price, the fund manager will review the valid exit state instead of silently clipping it. The initial ranks will be updated monthly or when a stop is triggered. No orders will be placed at the end of a closed session, and the next session's handoff will be preserved. This is a signal computation, not a strategy backtest.
equity850.99
fund_cap144.67
position_cap212.75
QQQ_notional48.22
IWM_notional48.22
EFA_notional48.23
QQQ_return23.7
IWM_return23.46
EFA_return19.46
p90_sample1255
eligible7
excluded_queued1
Trading Signal Table
TechnicaladoptCore trendEEM, QQQ, IWM, EFA, GLD, SPY, TLT, BTC/USD, ETH/USD2026-09-12 04:04
A news scan found the headline '04UTC nine-asset completed-bar signal table; selection unchanged'. This refers to a table of trading signals for nine assets, which was updated at 04UTC. The premises for this table are: the fixed mandate was accepted, only completed bars are considered, and the assets EEM, QQQ, and IWM are retained until a stop or monthly rerank. The columns in the table show the symbol, 12-month return percentage, close price, SMA200 (a type of moving average), ATR20 (average true range over 20 days), rank of all and qualified assets, chosen quantity, 60-day P90 percentage (a measure of price movement), and target sample. The table lists the following assets: EEM with a 12-month return of 34.203759% and a close price of 67.8400, QQQ with a 12-month return of 23.698782% and a close price of 714.8800, IWM with a 12-month return of 23.457265% and a close price of 288.8900, EFA with a 12-month return of 19.458128% and a close price of 106.7000, GLD with a 12-month return of 18.943507% and a close price of 398.7700, SPY with a 12-month return of 18.489063% and a close price of 764.2900, TLT with a 12-month return of -5.756905% and a close price of 80.8700, BTC/USD with a 12-month return of -33.166568% and a close price of 77212.8315, and ETH/USD with a 12-month return of -43.622786% and a close price of 2516.0660. The sources for this data are https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all and https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars?timeframe=1Day. The data is based on 252-interval ETF adjusted returns and 365 crypto returns, with stocks through September 11 and crypto unfinished on September 12 excluded. The ATR is calculated as a simple 20-mean true range, and the rolling 60-day target endpoints are based on the last 5 years. There is a pending order for 1 share of EEM at $67.84, which has not been filled. The prices of QQQ and IWM exceed the position cap and equal slot. The initial stop for EEM is 65.93, and the target is 75.11. There is no concept backtest or new entry gate.
qualifying7
EEM_return34.2
EEM_ATR0.95
EEM_SMA61.76
qty_pending1
stop65.93
target75.11
fund_cap238.28
position_cap212.75
slot79.43
C91202 Screen
TechnicalwatchCrypto majors3350.T, 3825.T, 8473.T, 0863.HK, ADE.DE, BTCW.L2026-09-12 02:23
A bounded cross-market quote screen, not including all foreign listings, was conducted. On September 11, the following prices were observed: Tokyo stock 3350 at 249 JPY with a decrease of 8.118%, Tokyo stock 3825 at 218 JPY with a decrease of 6.838%, and Tokyo stock 8473 at 3262 JPY with a decrease of 3.032%. Additionally, Hong Kong stock 0863 was at 10.34 HKD with a decrease of 9.773%, German stock ADE was at 27.64 EUR with an increase of 1.468%, and London stock BTCW was at 18.7975 USD with a decrease of 0.922%. Two initial queries were excluded: BC8 was mistaken for Bitcoin Group (ADE), and 0380 had an unestablished crypto link, while OSL 0863 was queried separately. The premises of this analysis are: single-day prices do not provide entry or stock-specific crypto edge, the Metaplanet primary SAR reduction on September 11 raises BTC per share through denominator reduction, not through a 43,000 BTC purchase, and financial reclassification is not a cash flow event. Furthermore, different foreign exchange rates, preferred claims, treasury dilution, and trading hours mean these are not spot BTC substitutes. The conclusion is that there will be no foreign orders or new fund proposal, and the primary Metaplanet follow-up on 2828 and dated EGM monitor 308 will be retained. No independent foreign daily or hourly costed strategy or venue eligibility was confirmed. This analysis identifies a coverage gap without claiming a worldwide financial screen. The sources used include Yahoo Finance queries for stocks 3350, 0863, and ADE, as well as Metaplanet disclosures. The analysis is based on 8 query rows, including 2 rejections, with observations from 25865 to 25872.
related_expressions6
excluded_queries2
Tokyo3350_JPY249
Tokyo3825_JPY218
Tokyo8473_JPY3262
HongKong0863_HKD10.34
ADE_EUR27.64
BTCW_USD18.8
orders0
SEP1202 Report
TechnicalrejectCatalyst run-upsCAG, MU, SPY2026-09-12 02:15
A data scan from https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev found stock bars for symbols CAG, MU, and SPY. The scan returned 1682 bars for each symbol with no next page token, and IEX also returned 1537 to 1540 bars. On September 11, CAG was at 14.60, below its Simple Moving Average, or SMA, of 15.796 for 20 days, 15.0274 for 50 days, and 15.38265 for 200 days. The 20-day return was -5.133%, the Average True Range, or ATR, for 20 days was 0.41226, and the annual Realized Volatility, or RV, for 20 days was 27.348%. A possible stop was at 14.18774 and a target at 15.83678, which is a 1 ATR risk to 3 ATR reward, for a gross gain of +8.4711%. This target is more ambitious than the usual five-session gain of 3.80166% in 2020-2026. For MU, the price was 975.26, above its SMAs of 962.80675, 928.6069, and 621.932575, with an ATR of 46.328885 and an RV of 54.011%. The 20-day return was +2.677%. A 3 ATR target would be +14.2515%, versus a 5-day gain of +10.4587%, but one whole share is unaffordable at 49.14, the fund cap. Fractional shares are possible but do not establish an event edge or after-hours protection. For SPY, the price was 764.29, below its SMA of 766.879 for 20 days and above its SMA of 758.6164 for 50 days, with a 20-day return of -1.747% and an ATR of 5.45286. This shows modest market weakness, different from CAG's structural decline. The indicators are correlated diagnostics, not multiple independent confirmations. No trade was made, as 15-minute and +2R management were not validated by daily bars.
CAG_close14.6
CAG_ATR200.41
CAG_RV20_pct27.35
CAG_momentum20_pct-5.13
CAG_target_gain_pct8.47
CAG_5day_q90_pct3.8
MU_close975.26
MU_ATR2046.33
MU_momentum20_pct2.68
MU_5day_q90_pct10.46
SPY_close764.29
allocation0
CAG Price Analysis
TechnicalrejectConvex eventsCAG, LW, ACVA, NOK, TNON, MARA2026-09-12 02:13
A test was done to see if the price of CAG is low enough to consider buying a put option. The test looked at the median absolute change in CAG's stock price after morning earnings announcements from July 2024 to July 2026, which was 2.064410%. On September 11, the stock price was $14.60, and on October 9, a call option with a strike price of $15.5 was available. To make this option profitable, the stock price would need to increase by 8.904110% or 7.876712%, including a cost of $0.05. However, the current stock price of $14.60 requires a decrease of 4.041096% to be profitable, and the current premium of $0.60 requires a decrease of 5.136986%. Another stock, LW, had a median absolute change in stock price of 13.153864% after morning events from July 2024 to July 2026. The test also looked at the moving averages of CAG's stock price, with the 20-day moving average at $15.796 and the 200-day moving average at $15.38265. The average true range, or ATR, which measures price volatility, was $0.41226, and the relative strength index, or RSI, which measures the stock's recent price changes, was 35.5222. The test found that the current put option price of 5.137% is not a good value, as it is below the expected cap, and the cost of $0.60 is too high. A reversal in the stock price could change this analysis, and the test did not find any technical reason to buy the put option.
S14.6
SMA2015.8
SMA20015.38
ATR200.41
RSI1435.52
RV200.27
C91202 Update
TechnicalwatchCrypto majorsETH/USD, BTC/USD, SOL/USD, LTC/USD, XRP/USD, HYPE/USD, LINK/USD, UNI/USD, ETHA, CRCL, MSTR2026-09-12 02:09
The premises of this update are based on the reverified Alpaca March 2026 published inventory of 36 USD pairs. All 36 pairs have daily bars, but USDG only has data for 2 out of 7 calendar days and the data is stale as of September 10. The ranking from September 5 to 11 is based on the sum of volume multiplied by volume weight, not global volume. The top pairs are USDC with 10.368 million, USDG with 1.900 million, BTC with 677,156, ETH with 459,605, LTC with 254,429, XRP with 199,205, SOL with 192,379, HYPE with 150,543, and LINK with 146,046, and UNI with 107,781. Stablecoins are retained in the literal top 10 but are rejected for directional price upside. There are eight volatile pairs in the candidate universe. All eight have a latest daily close below the prior 20-day high, although all are above the 50-day simple moving average, which is a calculation of the average price over a 50-day period. ETH is at 2516.066, barely above the prior 20-day close of 2515.445. The ETH high of 2565.9 is used as a daily comparator, which differs from the hourly comparator of 2664.8535. A Nasdaq directory of 13,181 non-test listings was screened by crypto and issuer names, yielding 181 results. 180 of these have 21 SIP-adjusted bars, which means the data has been adjusted for stock splits and dividends. 19 of these are above the prior 20-session high. ETHA is at 19.16, above 19.135, and STRC is at 98.64, above 98.2. However, bulk ETH wrappers share one factor, which means they are not independent signals. MSTR is at 130.97, below 144.92, COIN is at 175.26, below 195.85, and CRCL is at 90.6, below 103.28. The conclusion is to retain the ETH frozen hourly watch, with no anticipatory crypto entry, and no automatic ETF or preferred-stock order on an untested crypto-transferred rule. The name screen misses undisclosed treasury pivots, which refers to changes in a company's treasury stock. The 20 stock sessions versus 20 calendar crypto days are not identical horizons, meaning they do not cover the same time period. Full observations of 36 rows, numbered 25464 to 25499, and 180 stock rows are saved separately. The sources of this data are the Nasdaq trader website, the Runway Aditya Perswal workers website for stock and crypto bars, and the Alpaca markets support website. The current cash constraint is 153.18.
crypto_pairs36
top10_volatile8
crypto_HIGH_signals0
US_listings13181
name_matches181
bar_covered180
US_HIGH_signals19
ETH_close2516.07
ETH_daily_HIGH2565.9
ETHA_close19.16
ETHA_HIGH19.14
fund_cash153.18
Trading Fund
TechnicaladoptCore trendSPY, QQQ, IWM, EFA, EEM, GLD, TLT, BTC/USD, ETH/USD2026-09-12 02:04
As of September 12, 02:00 UTC, the last completed daily bars were from September 11. The source of this data is https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars and https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars, with explicit UTC bounds from June 1, 2021, to September 12, 2026. The data includes dividend-adjusted close ratios over 252 sessions for stocks and 365 daily periods for cryptocurrencies. The Simple Moving Average, or SMA, is a mean of past prices, and the Average True Range, or ATR, is a mean of the true range of prices over a certain period. The target convention entry is calculated by multiplying the entry price by one plus the 90th percentile of signed rolling 60-bar simple returns over five years. This calculation is not conditional only on winning windows. The table below shows the results for each symbol, including the return percentage, SMA200, ATR20, overall rank, whether it qualifies, and the number of chosen shares or coins. The symbols are: SPY with a return of 18.4891%, SMA200 of 712.0452, and ATR20 of 5.4529, ranking 6 and qualifying; QQQ with a return of 23.6988%, SMA200 of 659.2565, and ATR20 of 7.8684, ranking 2 and qualifying; IWM with a return of 23.4573%, SMA200 of 273.1651, and ATR20 of 3.0705, ranking 3 and qualifying; EFA with a return of 19.4581%, SMA200 of 100.6733, and ATR20 of 0.8809, ranking 4 and qualifying; EEM with a return of 34.2038%, SMA200 of 61.7603, and ATR20 of 0.9526, ranking 1 and qualifying; GLD with a return of 18.9435%, SMA200 of 415.9345, and ATR20 of 7.9524, ranking 5 and not qualifying; TLT with a return of -5.7569%, SMA200 of 84.5005, and ATR20 of 0.6911, ranking 7 and not qualifying; BTC/USD with a return of -33.1666%, SMA200 of 70029.0427, and ATR20 of 2437.1412, ranking 8 and qualifying; and ETH/USD with a return of -43.6228%, SMA200 of 2052.4676, and ATR20 of 98.9882, ranking 9 and qualifying. The premises are: 1) a seven-pass SMA, 2) EEM, QQQ, and IWM are the strongest qualifying returns, 3) a budget of 238.28 implies 79.4267 each, and 4) whole shares are required for off-hours exits. The conclusion is to queue EEM 1, QQQ/IWM 0 because single shares of 714.88/288.89 exceed the account cap of 212.7475. The signal is long, and the cash remainder is an execution constraint, not a negative forecast. GLD and TLT fail the SMA, and EFA, SPY, and cryptocurrencies rank lower. This is an initial empty fund initialization, and later rerank monthly/stop only. A specific accepted rule excludes repeat strategy backtest and discretionary Kelly overlays.
qualifying7
selected3
fund_cap238.28
position_cap212.75
equal_slot79.43
EEM_shares1
QQQ_shares0
IWM_shares0
EEM_return34.2
R91200 Signals
TechnicalwatchSupply chainHWM, LPG, FRO, STNG, ATI, AEHR, FTK2026-09-12 00:13
A news scan found the following notes from an automated trading fund manager. The manager reviewed signals and risk levels, distinguishing between SIP and IEX. The notes are as follows: the manager completed a review of SIP on September 11, which included adjusted prices for HWM and LPG. HWM's high water mark was 229.61, which is less than the prior 20 days' high of 292.65, and its 50-day simple moving average, or SMA, was 272.24. LPG's low price was 55.18, which is less than its 50-day SMA of 55.20, despite its 50-day SMA being 45.93. Both of these signals were false, meaning they did not trigger a buy order. The manager also noted that FRO's price was 49.21, which is greater than 48.40, and STNG's price was 84.52, which is greater than 84.51, but only by one cent in SIP, while IEX had a price of 84.45, which is less than 84.52, and thus failed. The manager applied an initial collector statement to STNG, but only for IEX, and did not choose a feed or round threshold to force an entry. The manager also provided reference prices for HWM, LPG, FRO, and STNG, including stop and target prices, but noted that these are illustrations and not actual orders or fair values. Additionally, the manager reviewed signals for ATI, AEHR, and FTK, which were all false, and noted that there are no holdings and no exit reset. The manager also stated that evidence-based levels do not by themselves prove a positive payoff.
HWM_close229.61
HWM_entry_high292.65
HWM_ADR8.2
LPG_close55.18
LPG_entry_high55.2
FRO_close49.21
STNG_SIP_close84.52
STNG_IEX_close84.45
SIP_signals2
screened7
orders0
Trade Analysis
TechnicalrejectCatalyst run-upsSCHL, HOFT, KR, SRRK, SPY2026-09-12 00:11
A news scan found the headline that a simplistic bearish trade was contradicted by the SEP1200 tape, with no live stops to reset. On September 11, the daily prices for SCHL were 34.975, which is below the Simple Moving Average of 20 days at 38.65 and the Simple Moving Average of 50 days at 41.671. The Relative Strength Index, a measure of stock price momentum, was 25.867. The 20-session return was -15.376%, and the Average Daily Range for 20 days was 0.89175. A hypothetical stop at 34.08325 and a target at 37.65025 would have a gross return of 3R, but less than 3R after costs. This is a diagnostic price geometry, not a justified order. HOFT was at 12.525, with a 20-day return of -15.600%, and the first IEX open was +7.239% but the close was -0.358%, which supports skepticism about the headline profit. The sparse IEX volume of 1952.5 per day cannot certify liquidity. KR closed at 58.46, +2.6334% despite a guidance cut, so the bearish sales headline alone missed the cash resilience. SRRK had a daily close of 55.39 before approval at 22:25 UTC, with no measured post-approval reaction. SPY was at 764.14, +0.8273% despite a weaker consumer context, with no causal attribution. The premises are: 1) event and timestamp alignment matters; 2) oversold inside a falling trend is not reversal-proof; and 3) stop and target geometry is not expected payoff. The conclusion is to remain flat pending independent window validation, with no existing stops to tighten. A strong countercase of an oversold rally is possible, tested without changing the entry window. The equity and stale price of 49.14 afford one SCHL share, which is approximately 71.17% of the fund, with no SRRK whole share, and no fractional overnight risk is assumed safe.
SCHL_close34.98
SCHL_SMA2038.65
SCHL_RSI1425.87
SCHL_ADR200.89
SCHL_diagnostic_stop34.08
SCHL_diagnostic_target37.65
KR_day_pct2.63
HOFT_day_pct-0.36
SRRK_preapproval_close55.39
allocation0
ETH Trade Update
TechnicalwatchCrypto majorsBTC/USD, ETH/USD, SOL/USD2026-09-12 00:10
A trading fund manager started with no holdings or orders and $235.86 in crypto cash. The manager considered two premises: first, that Ethereum, or ETH, had a high price of 2628.4075 on September 11 at 13UTC, which was above its previous high of 2565.9 from 480 hours earlier, and this information was available by 14UTC. Second, the next window to open a trade has passed, and the latest closing price of 2516.066 at 23UTC is below the new threshold of 2664.8535. Additionally, the prices of Bitcoin, or BTC, and Solana, or SOL, were 77212.8315 and 102.4335, respectively, which are below their respective thresholds of 82233.502538 and 110.5357, so no trading signals were generated for BTC and SOL on Friday. A third premise considered the daily closing prices, but it is a separate rule. The conclusion is that the manager missed an opportunity to trade ETH and will not open a new trade under the current policy. One potential counterexample is that buying ETH at a lower price might be more profitable, but this strategy has not been tested. The manager has no current position in ETH. The data used for this decision comes from https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars, which provides historical price data for cryptocurrencies. The manager's logic is valid based on the rules used, but its effectiveness is limited by assumptions about historical price data.
ETH_signal_close2628.41
ETH_old_threshold2565.9
ETH_current2516.07
ETH_new_threshold2664.85
ETH_gap_pct5.91
ETH_Friday_signals1
BTC_Friday_signals0
SOL_Friday_signals0
holdings0
orders0
BB Rebound
TechnicalrejectConvex eventsBB, HITI, GIS, TLX2026-09-12 00:08
A trading fund manager analyzed the stock performance of BB, HITI, and GIS. The manager used a test called an edge test to evaluate the stocks. For BB, the median absolute change in earnings from September 2023 to June 2026 was 9.987505%. On September 11, the stock price was 7.67, and on October 2, the call option price was 0.45, plus 0.05 in assumed costs, which required a 10.821382% increase. For HITI, the median change was 5.494505%, and for GIS, it was 3.063603%. The manager also looked at the stocks' prices and moving averages. BB's close price was 7.67, a 1.7241% increase, but still below the 20-day and 50-day moving averages. The manager used indicators like RSI and ATR to evaluate the trend. The results showed a weak trend for the stocks. The manager also checked the companies' earnings announcement dates: BB on September 12, HITI on September 14, and GIS on September 23. The manager concluded that the stocks did not meet the required criteria, with no 40% pass or documented 3x expected payout. The manager used data from option contracts, stock bars, and historical issuer URLs to make these observations.
BB_close7.67
BB_SMA208.03
BB_SMA508.87
BB_RSI40.8
BB_ATR0.38
BB_RV_pct54.68
GIS_close35.85
GIS_RSI35.32
GIS_ATR1.22
PRE91108 Setup
TechnicalrejectCatalyst run-upsHITI, HAIN, PLAY, TLX, SPY2026-09-11 08:12
A news scan found the following trading fund notes: The daily history from June 1 to September 10 has 71 bars per symbol, with September 10 close being a historical reference, not a live quote. For HITI, the price of 2.56 is above the 20-day average of 2.4905 and the 50-day average of 2.3204, with a momentum of 20 days at 9.871%. PLAY is below 9.4625 and 10.0246, and down 21.215%. HAIN is below its 20-day average of 0.6925, with a dollar average daily volume of only 474,144. The diagnostic stop for HITI1ADR is 2.48153 with a target of 2.79541, above the 20-day high of 2.70. TLX is above its 20-day average of 11.70425, but cannot neutralize the FDA risk today. The SPY is below both its 20 and 50-day averages, which is context, not a filter. The conclusion is that there is no new last-session rule and no queued order. The entry dates for HITI, HAIN, and PLAY have passed. Whole-share affordability is a consideration, but only for feasibility. The source is a data feed from https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars, with issuer dates and observations from 25034 to 25040.
bars_each71
HITI_close2.56
HITI_ADR0.08
HITI_diag_stop2.48
HITI_diag_target2.8
PLAY_momentum20_pct-21.22
HAIN_dollar_ADV474144.4
TLX_close11.9
allocation0
R91108 Pre-Open
TechnicalwatchSupply chainTSM, LPG, FRO, STNG, SPY2026-09-11 08:12
A news scan found the following pre-open levels for R91108: LPG and TSM failed the frozen entry condition. The premises for this decision are as follows: LPG's price of 54.41 is less than its prior 20-day high of 55.20, and it is above its Simple Moving Average 50 of 45.52. TSM's price of 428.03 is less than its prior high of 439.00, and it is above its Simple Moving Average 50 of 419.15. Both breakout conditions are false, so there is no anticipatory limit. LPG's ADR price of 201.69 and target price of 64.55 at 3R are illustrative, but not an actual order. TSM's rule was rejected. FRO and STNG do pass the mechanical signal with prices of 48.40 and 84.51, respectively, but prior failed or inconclusive execution and cost evidence are not repaired by this screen. The SIP feed prices of 1.34306 and 2.01960 for FRO and STNG differ from the 07:30 IEX prices of 1.244 and 1.651, which matters for risk. The conclusion is that there are zero orders or stops, and the book is flat. Missing fresh quotes, 15-minute validation, and dividend cash policy validation remain. The maximum whole TSM shares under the 212.75 cap are 0. The source of this information is https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all.
LPG_close54.41
LPG_prior2055.2
LPG_ADR201.69
TSM_close428.03
TSM_prior20439
TSM_ADR208.56
FRO_close48.4
STNG_close84.51
LPG_signal0
TSM_signal0
orders0
SPY Discrepancy
TechnicalinconclusiveQuant replicationSPY2026-09-11 08:05
A news scan found the text: Premises: (1) New Sep11 fetch still has Feb2 raw SIP daily low 69.005, adjusted 68.64; close 695.41 raw. (2) 941 minute bars span 04–20ET; minimum 681.94 occurs 08:01ET. RTH 390 minutes have minimum 689.425 and high 696.93, IEX raw daily low 689.445. (3) Alpaca documents different condition rules: P/Z/4 may change daily high/low but not minute; T does the reverse. Daily endpoint included next date at exact end boundary, so comparisons explicitly use NY dates. Conclusion: discrepancy is material but not proof of a particular bad trade. Prior replacement 678.301862 used premarket and is not a matched-session or authoritative correction. Soundness still fails without eligible print and official correction evidence. Strongest counterexample to blanket 'daily must equal minutes' is a legitimate prior-reference transaction. Keep both vintages and all 32.38%/34.20% prior exit results quarantined; no new repaired-grid search. Next bounded work audits the frozen February entry against observed quarter-hour prices to separate barrier touches from venue checks, without calling this a fresh holdout. Sources https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/market-data-faq and https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars.
raw daily low69
adjusted daily low68.64
minute low681.94
RTH minute low689.42
IEX daily low689.45
minute bars941
RTH minutes390
15minute bars64
live allocation0
C91108 Update
TechnicalwatchCrypto majorsBTC/USD, ETH/USD, SOL/USD2026-09-11 08:05
A news scan found the following information: On September 11, at 07:00 UTC, the prices of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana were $77,204.40, $2,466.27, and $99.74, respectively. Previously, the 480-hour high was $82,233.50 for Bitcoin, $2,565.90 for Ethereum, and $110.54 for Solana, which required an upside of 6.51% for Bitcoin, 4.04% for Ethereum, and 10.82% for Solana, but none of these conditions were met. On September 11, at 08:02, the quotes for Bitcoin were $77,232.22 and $77,251.23, for Ethereum were $2,467.20 and $2,468.01, and for Solana were $99.64 and $99.75, with ages of 6, 7, and 55 seconds, respectively. The ask depth for Ethereum was $82.50 and the bid was $82.60, with a roundtrip spread and assumed credited 25 basis point fees of 0.535%, before slippage. 9 out of 10 watched quotes were fresh, and the USD-G quote was stale at 1,014,24 seconds. The latest job, which was the 14th daily 36-pair census, showed no close breakout, including stables, and had 3 out of 7 day coverage for USD-G. The conclusion is zero entry, and Ethereum remains a watch candidate, but the current price cannot inherit the conditional backtest before the signal. The old 2 ATR was $88.01, and the 349-day ATR and hypothetical $29.48 probe were not standing levels, so the ATR needs to be repriced, along with the net 3R and quote at the actual entry. A marketable buy limit at $2,565.90 now fills below the breakout and does not implement the conditional close, so there is no queued limit. The current source is https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars and https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-snapshots.
BTC_up_pct6.51
ETH_up_pct4.04
SOL_up_pct10.82
ETH_close2466.27
ETH_threshold2565.9
fresh_quotes9
ETH_ask_depth82.5
ETH_fee_spread_pct0.54
signals0
actual_notional0
C91106 Trend
TechnicalwatchCrypto majorsBTC/USD, ETH/USD, SOL/USD2026-09-11 06:15
A news scan found the report that the C91106 favorable broad trend is not a completed breakout. On September 11, at 05:00 UTC, the prices of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana were 77229.185, 2467.145, and 99.8787, respectively. The prior 480-hour high was 82233.502538071 for Bitcoin, 2565.9 for Ethereum, and 110.5357 for Solana. The distance between the current prices and the prior high is 6.479827% for Bitcoin, 4.002805% for Ethereum, and 10.669943% for Solana, and this is not a completed breakout with the full 480-hour history. On September 10, the daily close for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana was 76535.875, 2436.8075, and 98.6025, respectively, which is higher than the 50-day simple moving average of 70403.34736 for Bitcoin, 2147.85729 for Ethereum, and 86.343249 for Solana, and the 5-day slope of the simple moving average is positive. This means that the broad trend is favorable, but there is no entry signal. The 14-day average true range, which is a measure of volatility, is 2283.570431 for Bitcoin, 88.013494 for Ethereum, and 4.975069 for Solana. The current risk for Ethereum is 7.134846% before costs, and the net stop is 7.783209%. The net 3R target requires a 24.216882% price increase. The current market levels of 2291.118 for Bitcoin and 3064.611 for Ethereum are not entry orders, and an actual breakout would recompute the average true range and payoff. A census of the 7-day dollar volume for 36 USD pairs, including USDC/USDG, BTC/ETH/XRP/LTC/SOL/LINK/HYPE/UNI, shows that USDG only has 3 out of 7 days of complete data. There is no 20-day close breakout among the 36 pairs, and it is not a global volume universe. At 06:03, 7 out of 10 quotes are fresh and less than or equal to 300 seconds old, with Ethereum near the cutoff at 283 and the top ask at 82.7 USD. A hypothetical probe of 29.4825 fits the observed depth, but a full need of 117.93 requires more book. The Ethereum spread plus fee hurdle is 5.30%, and additional execution costs are not included. The conclusion is that there is no order, and fresh quotes should only be checked when an actual frozen entry occurs. The sources of the data are https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars and https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-snapshots.
BTC_distance_pct6.48
ETH_distance_pct4
SOL_distance_pct10.67
ETH_ATR88.01
ETH_SMA502147.86
ETH_net_stop_pct7.78
ETH_target_price_up_pct24.22
ETH_quote_age_s283
ETH_ask_depth_usd82.7
universe36
active_entries0
allocation0
VM9110600 Results
TechnicalwatchQuant replicationSPY2026-09-11 06:14
A news scan found the following data: Premises include a frozen 2 ATR stop and 6 ATR target monthly adapter with a stress holdout of 44 trades, with 23 wins, which is 52.2727 percent, a mean win of 3.683454 percent and a mean loss of 2.254024 percent, resulting in a realized win/loss ratio of 1.63417. The target exits were 6.8182 percent, with a Wilson 95 percent confidence interval of 2.3459 to 18.2253 percent. There were 23 time exits, 16 stop exits, and 2 gap stops, with 14 quarter partials. In training, there were 0 target exits and 6 partials. The holdout return and R quantiles were a minimum of -1.22721, a median of 0.26141, and a maximum of 2.75206. The training minimum R was -2.15333, which demonstrates a gap loss beyond the stop. A 2 R quarter reduces the non-gap target gross payoff to 2.75 R, not the 3 R realized. Three entry-day exits in each window mean the monthly frequency does not remove PDT exposure. The SPY close on September 10 was 757.83, which exceeds the 187.22 whole-share budget, and fractional exits outside regular trading hours cannot match the daily bar proxy. The current close is greater than the SMA 200 at 711.49165, with a 63 session return of 4.73486 percent and a 20 session RV of 8.53648 percent. These indicators do not change the frozen rule. The current next day ATR is 5.36936, distinct from the lagged September 10 ATR of 5.29836. The September allocation is based on the August RV of 10.05317 percent. The September first monthly entry has already elapsed, with no September 11 catch-up. The conclusion is to watch only, as a new entry requires a frozen future monthly open and independent venue implementation. Sources include https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars, research/inference.json, and user venue execution context.
sample44
win rate pct52.27
target hits3
target frequency pct6.82
target Wilson lower pct2.35
target Wilson upper pct18.23
realized W L1.63
partials14
same day exits3
train worst R-2.15
close757.83
live whole shares0
R91106 LPG Levels
TechnicalwatchSupply chainLPG2026-09-11 06:14
On September 10, the daily close for LPG was 54.41. The prior 20-day close high was 55.20, the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) was 45.5232, the 20-day Average Daily Range (ADR) was 1.690275, and the annualized 20-day volatility was 35.78195%. According to the data from https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=LPG&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all, the entry requirements were not met because the close was not above the prior high and the SMA. At the reference close, a 2 ADR risk of 3.38055 would give a stop at 51.02945 and a 3R target at 64.55165, but these are just examples and not actual order prices. The current price is below the trigger and a buy limit cannot be set for a future close-confirmed breakout. One share of LPG at 54.41 is more than the training quarter probe of 9.03. The account has a 25% cap of 212.7475, which allows for 3 whole shares. If a quarter of these shares were liquidated, there would be a fractional remainder, and the exits would only be allowed during Regular Trading Hours (RTH). A range-based stop would invalidate this price setup, but not necessarily the underlying business idea. New prices and a justified management policy are needed before this watch can be converted into an actual investment, and no order has been placed.
close54.41
prior20_high55.2
SMA5045.52
ADR201.69
vol20_annual_pct35.78
R3.38
reference_stop51.03
reference_target64.55
current_signal0
max_whole_shares3
probe_usd9.03
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