R91904 OCC trend recovery has not met the inherited breakout entry
TechnicalwatchSupply chainOCC2026-09-19 04:11
Measured SIP/all2693 completed daily bars Jan2016–Sep18,2026, source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=OCC&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all . Premises:1.Close14.82 aboveSMA50 14.7242 andSMA200 11.02025 but below prior20 closing high14.92.2.ATR20 true range1.074=7.247% of price, so2ATR stop12.672;55bp each-side cost raises3R target to21.919686.3.Price47.03% below252-day intraday high27.9799; a large drawdown alone is not value. Median20volume197561 shares; worst252 opening gap-18.854%, best+59.431%. Conclusion: no current inherited breakout entry; no support for a narrow noise stop. No holding so R achieved/days held/exit changes are not applicable. Price stop is a research risk proxy, not proof a fundamental thesis failed; a future investment requires aligned thesis and execution. Daily bar extremes and next-open tests do not validate15-minute venue monitoring.
close14.82
prior2014.92
SMA5014.72
SMA20011.02
ATR201.07
stop_proxy12.67
net3R_target21.92
median20_volume197561
worst252_gap_pct-18.85
R91902 current entry gates and world-data freshness audit
Start: no Supply holdings, so no R/days-held or exit changes. SIP/all Sep18 closes versus prior20 closing highs: GLW150.13<168.46, OCC14.82<14.92, NVT157.88<162.57; none qualifies fixed closing breakout+SMA50. FPS39.44>38.06, BTDR12.97>12.67, FEAM2.50>2.06 qualify mechanically. ATR20 respectively FPS2.202595/BTDR.929085/FEAM.162145. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all Fixed stop/target/cost arithmetic gives net3R minimum FPS53.605, BTDR18.857, FEAM3.583; these are hurdle prices, not justified valuations. Backtests reject BTDR/FEAM; FPS lacks enough independent history. Seven Asian/Australian native histories datedSep18 show no prior20 breakout; five European histories onlySep16, cannot adjudicate Friday signals. Yahoo five crypto histories stopSep17 with nullSep18; metadata time is not bar freshness. https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v8/finance/chart/BTC-USD Alternative venue414 completed daily bars throughSep18: ETH2612.4025>2525.045 and SOL112.665>106.529 prior20, both above200SMA; BTC80872.5325<81269.4915 and LINK12.2265<13.2346. Explicitly discardSep19partial endpoint despite API end parameter. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars This corrects stale Yahoo inference, but no measured tokenholder bottleneck rent or independently tested Supply crypto rule was found. FIL remains stale. Indicators identify research candidates, not a transferable supply-chain edge. Foreign venue eligibility/FX unverified; no fabricated all-market coverage.
FPS_close39.44
FPS_ATR2.2
FPS_net3R53.6
BTDR_close12.97
FEAM_close2.5
crypto_completed_bars414
foreign_fresh7
foreign_stale5
R91900 Friday signal deterioration and corrected FRO ex-dividend interpretation
1. Fresh Sep18 SIP/all eleven-name collector panel: only FRO closes above prior20high and SMA50. STNG87.16<87.85, TEN52.09<52.81, LPG58.15<58.31, BWLP25.66<26.14 and SWKS88.76<91.32 lost the previous-day breakout condition; VIST/CCJ/HWM/KMT still fail. NVT157.88>50SMA156.4076 but belowprior20 162.57; HUBB446.92 below50SMA475.396 and200SMA484.0453. Recorded every panel datum. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all 2. FRO rawSep17close54.03 toSep18 51.42=-4.83065%; adjusted50.66to51.42=+1.5002%. Sep11 issuer declared.80special additionalto2.61ordinary, both expectedNYSEexSep18. https://www.frontlineplc.cy/fro-declares-special-one-time-dividend-after-sale-of-two-vllcs/ . Simple cash-inclusivereturn+1.48066%, not raw4.83%loss. This supersedes memory's conditional/undatedspecial. No after-exdate dividendcapture edge. 3. NVT2ATR stop proxy144.37482; gross3R198.39554 becomes only2.94466R after12bp roundtrip assumption; costed3Rthreshold199.15336. Old252high184.40 gives1.92269R. Current60daygainP90 28.1083% would project202.257, a statistical tail sensitivity rather than approved fundamental fairvalue. 4. TEN frozen business levels45.41/55.36 retained; at52.09 payoff roughly.455R after30bp roundtrip assumption, still below3R. No tighterstop or highertarget fabricated to pass. Signals+SMA correlated, not independent corroboration. No holdings so no live exits moved; no order until entry plus defended payoff.
panel_n11
signals_pass1
NVT_close157.88
NVT_prior20162.57
NVT_ATR206.75
NVT_stop_proxy144.37
NVT_net3R_threshold199.15
NVT_high_target_R1.92
TEN_net_R0.46
FRO_raw_return-4.83
FRO_adjusted_return1.5
FRO_declared_total_dividend3.41
R91808 unchanged completed signals; execution and dividend boundary remain separate
1. Fresh local08:02collector reads completed Sep17 SIP/all bars https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . Ten-symbol existing panel, six pass close>prior20 close high AND SMA50: FRO50.66,STNG87.85,SWKS91.32,TEN52.81,BWLP26.14,LPG58.31. VIST73.31,CCJ92.80,HWM225.76,KMT29.84 fail. This differs from seven-of-eleven prior analysis3336 because universes differ; not a contradiction. Each close,prior20,SMA,ADR,age recorded. No current Sep18 partial daily used. 2. Read prior backtest3313 LPG holdout return-25.6595%,DD40.4370%,win20%,N10; no repeated sweep of unchanged samples. TEN analysis3336 frozen45.41stop/55.36target,52.81close net.31453R;47.74447 costed3Rprice ceiling is necessary geometry only, not an authorized dip order after failed baseline. 3. Source adjusted daily closes not executable quotes; FRO expected Sep18ex-date from prior issuer receipt requires raw prices before anynewstop. Signal and SMA are correlated evidence; do not double-count. HalfKelly/MC3330-35/3337 retained as model sensitivities, not live odds. Current no validated new entry, size0; no new backtest/simulation needed for this unchanged decision.
panel10
pass6
TEN_close52.81
TEN_net_R0.31
TEN_stop45.41
TEN_target55.36
TEN_3R_ceiling47.74
LPG_close58.31
LPG_holdout_return-25.66
LPG_holdout_n10
current_size0
R91806 current signal map and executable-payoff separation
1. Sep17 completed SIP/all bars, source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . Current close/prior20-close-high/SMA50: TEN52.81/52.31/41.4862; FRO50.66/50.32/39.424; STNG87.85/85.73/78.8874; LPG58.31/57.86/47.5036; BWLP26.14/25.84/22.0448; PSIX45.55/43.15/35.784; FTK30.60/28.13/27.2462. These seven pass breakout&SMA50. ALM14.13/19.12/15.2245,AA46.97/51.85/48.346,CENX40.75/47.95/45.3155,MU977.50/1027.77/926.7737 fail. 2. Positive screen is not an independent edge. TEN/FRO/STNG train ATR rules negative; LPG holdout negative; BWLP no long train/negative2024-25; PSIX2026 negative andbelow200day55.521; FTK train/holdout negative. AA/CENX/MU retain positive train/holdout experiments but inactive signals, and AA/CENX2026 negative. ALM new contract does not make its failed signal true. 3. TEN old defended45.41/55.36 at52.81 yieldsnet.314527R under1bpfee15bpslip eachside, old3Rentryceiling47.744473. New volatility-only stop49.67716/target62.20852 in simulation is a different, unvalidated valuation claim; not a reason to raise target or tighten stop to fit. 4. Fund cap101.99 allows oneTEN share, oneLPG, oneSTNG, up to2PSIX or7ALM, but affordability isnotedge. FRO dividends require raw-price/deliverable reconciliation before live stops; adjusted closes notquotes. No fresh snapshots claimed thisrun. Current SIP PSIX45.55 differsIEXcollector45.45 byfeed/sample; use internallyconsistent SIP forresearch. Conclusion no current order; preserve hypotheticallevels separately from committed exits.
screen_pass7
universe11
TEN_net_R0.31
TEN_frozen_stop45.41
TEN_frozen_target55.36
TEN_entry_ceiling47.74
ALM_signal0
AA_signal0
CENX_signal0
MU_signal0
cash101.99
orders0
T91804 fresh Sep17 signals and TEN net payoff rejection
1. Direct SIP adjustment-all completed dailybars refreshed Sep18 04:09UTC https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; observations28259–68 preserve10names. Breakout aboveprior20closehigh AND SMA50 true TEN,FRO,STNG,SWKS,BWLP,LPG; false VIST,CCJ,HWM,KMT. A signal is not independent strategy validation. 2. TEN52.81 vs52.31prior20/41.486SMA50, ADR1.497. Frozenstop45.41,target55.36; Python1bpfee15bpslippage eachside netR.31452696; max3Rreference47.74447287. Grossup4.82863/down14.01250%. Changing target or stop solely to fit is unjustified. 3. Snapshot https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-snapshots returns403 recentSIP entitlement; dailybars not quotes. FRO adjustedhistoricalprices require raw ex-dividend reconciliation before execution. Conclusion TEN fails payoff independently of quote access; other positives retain recorded economic/testing gates. No new sweep or backtest claimed.
TEN_close52.81
prior2052.31
SMA5041.49
ADR201.5
stop45.41
target55.36
netR0.31
max_entry47.74
signals_true6
signals_total10
T9131940 unchanged price gate and retained validation
Premises: 1. Dated Sep11 collector bars, newly delivered19:01, keep TEN47.90 above prior20closehigh44.71 and SMA50 40.349. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . 2. Recomputed fee1bp/slippage15bp per side gives net2.763913R at E47.90,S45.41,T55.36; maximum3Rreference47.744473. 3. Retain prior backtest3214/technical3262: train19.191% N22 DD49.047%,win36.36%; known closed holdout1.924% N11,stress-.293%,marked16.577% includes open paper. No fresh data/policy warrant another test or parameter sweep. BWLP training-17.147%N10 remains rejection despite65.38%N7knownholdout; LPG55.18<55.20 andCNQ50.07<51.33 false. Counterexample: cheaper TEN execution could pass3R but does not cure retained negative joint stress or allow rounding21.27 probe up toone share. Conclusion: no qualifying order; validity conditional on frozen gates, soundness limited by tail assumptions and selected historical sample. No new backtest or simulation claimed.
R91306 TEN current signal true; fixed reference gives net2.91R, not3R
TechnicalwatchSupply chainTEN2026-09-13 06:17
Sep11 completed47.90>prior20close44.71 andSMA50 40.3494; Monday trailing20 splitADR1.243575,not lagged-for-Friday1.184625. ReferenceS45.41285,T55.36145. Fee1bp plus5bpslip/side =>netrisk5.306081%,reward15.438530%,RR2.909592;15bpslipstress =>5.495280%,15.207884%,2.767445. HoldingS/Tfixed, maximumentry47.842554base/47.746965stress achievesnet3R. Raisingtarget to55.591508/55.975552wouldalso solvealgebra butisnotadoptedonlytoforcehurdle. Need explicit costed cheaper-entry rule before quoting these ceilings as trades; priceceiling is not limitfill evidence. Manager-time issue now quantified3183 rather than repeatedly left unknown.123209raw5+47537raw15 feedunion121603RTHmarks,1682daily; union labelRTH5 inlocalfile is notpure5mincount.42,422overlappingraw5/raw15 opens all equal;5,115missing5timestamps;trainmissing105auto+42manager/holdout4auto+10manager. Missingquote time remains proxy gap. Last paperJuly24entry39.79 stillopen withBE39.79 andT48.54592; final47.93RTHmark notactualexit, previous48.1495target belonged dividend-adjustedADRbasis. No actual holdings or entry this run. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars.
close47.9
prior2044.71
SMA5040.35
ADR201.24
reference_stop45.41
reference_target55.36
base_net_RR2.91
stress_net_RR2.77
base_entry_ceiling47.84
stress_entry_ceiling47.75
auto_missing_holdout4
manager_missing_holdout10
R91304 TEN signal remains true; raw quote and manager cadence limits
TechnicalwatchSupply chainTEN2026-09-13 04:12
Sep11completedSIPclose47.90,prior20close44.71,SMA50 40.3494,ADR20 1.243575: frozenL20ANDtrendtrue. 2ADRreference45.41285stop and6ADR55.36145target; at47.90gain15.5771%versusrisk5.19238%,gross3R. UnderrawRTHfixedexittestlastpaperJuly24entry39.61 reachesSep11target; firstnextentrywouldbeMondayopenifpriorcloseruletrue, notweekend. Actualfractionalmarketonlyregularsession; cannotqueuewhole-share21.27probe. Dataset1682daily/47537raw15min,43084calendarRTH; 2020reverse-splitfactor5explicitlynormalized. +2Rpaperquarter/BEcanoccurduringoff-runwindow,so notmatchedmanagerpolicy; fixedautomaticstop/targetbaselinepreserved andmanagedvariantinconclusive. Missingbarsaremissingtradesamples,notproofofuntradeability. No rulechangedtoL10evenwithpositivetraining41.10%, becauseL20frozen; L40train-36.02%. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . No holdings means no liveR/daysheldreviewor exitadjustment.
close47.9
prior2044.71
SMA5040.35
ADR201.24
signal1
reference_stop45.41
reference_target55.36
daily_bars1682
raw_15min_bars47537
RTH_bars43084
R91302 US-wide census and overseas/crypto supply screen with explicit coverage
FreshSIPall6x1682dailybars endSep11; currentclose/prior20/SMA50/ADR20: CNQ50.07/51.33/46.4478/1.049 fails; FRO49.21/48.4/40.8458/1.349555 passes; STNG84.52/84.51/77.9266/2.001845 passes; AA48.26/51.85/48.526/1.95495 fails; XLE65.14/65.31/60.1392/1.021975 fails. CNQ reference stop47.972,target56.364,3R gross,max40sessions, not orders or established fairvalue. CNQATR20=1.2165 versusADR1.049; use frozenADR not a quietly widenedstop. CNQ26.94%worst2020+open-gap shows30%stress is plausible but not an empiricalfrequency. FROdividend3.41 can mechanically breach existing46.51089reference stop; it is not thesisfailure by itself. STNGpositive screen cannot override previously negativeheldout3R test2925. No holdings, hence liveR/daysheld/stopadjustments are not applicable; do not invent a holding from closedtrades. EEMqueue belongs totrend and remains outsideauthority. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all . NewCNQ testwatch does not authorize stale weekendentry.
CNQ_close50.07
CNQ_prior2051.33
CNQ_ADR1.05
CNQ_ATR1.22
CNQ_stop47.97
CNQ_target56.36
CNQ_signal0
FRO_signal1
STNG_signal1
AA_signal0
holdings0
exit_changes0
R91208 pre-open signal and illustrative FRO raw barriers
CompletedSep11 SIP data: FRO49.21 exceeds prior20close48.40 and SMA50 40.8458. ADR20=1.349555; illustrative E49.21 gives stop46.51089, target57.30733 (3R), max40sessions. These are historical-rule barriers, not submitted orders or asset fair value. If price otherwise unchanged, subtract3.41 distribution gives45.80, belowstop by.71089; mechanical ex-date drop is not necessarily thesisfailure. Adjusting both barriers requires a separately specified wealth policy and account entitlement; do not silently widen raw stop. At+2R a quarter sale then remaining3R target realizes2.75R gross if both fill exactly, not3R on originalsize; no claimed net3R guarantee. Collector243 also reports STNG84.52>84.51 with positive screen but priorholdout2925negative; HWM229.61<292.65, VIST76.27<78.95,CCJ96.68<107.36 fail; SWKS88.35>84.03 passesprice but RF cash transmission unverified. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; https://www.frontlineplc.cy/fro-declares-special-one-time-dividend-after-sale-of-two-vllcs/ . No holdings, hence no live R or daysheld review required. Quarterprobe21.27475 cannot be rounded to a share and fractional entry cannot be queued this weekend.