Stats

A news scan found the following text: Premise 1 uses 419 complete common daily return rows from September 4, 2025, from all-adjusted IEX. This compares ordinary least squares, or OLS, versus SPY beta for several stocks: AXTI is 2.511, AEHR is 3.447, PSIX is 2.892, VSH is 2.387, POWL is 1.899, and ETN is 1.539. The correlation between POWL and ETN is 0.6593, and between AEHR and VSH is 0.5628. This shows that distinct products do not eliminate shared market exposure. The intercepts are descriptive, not causal alpha, and there is no annualized alpha claim. Premise 2 uses a mean of 10,000 circular three-trade block bootstrap seed 905 on natural exit samples of 40, 39, 29, 38, 34, and 32. Five means have a 95% interval crossing zero. The mean for PSIX is 3.7507%, with a confidence interval of 0.4832% to 7.1587%, but this is based on only four training bars, which is the selected post-listing history. An additional 20,000 draws give a conservative six-test tail sensitivity of -0.6271% to 8.3548%. This cannot correct all 3012-name screening and unknown prior research, and is not a formal population guarantee. Removing the best PSIX trade mean of 2.5700% shows that it is not entirely one outcome, and there is still small sample and regime risk. Premise 3 notes that contemporary survivorship, selected high movers, assumed costs, conditional barrier fills, and missing natural ledger losses undermine transportability. The conclusion is that PSIX merits prospective collection, not size, and others are rejected or watched per backtests 83-88. The source is https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars, with stats.json, tests.json, and derived.json/trades archived. The prior on PSIX shifts from unknown to interesting diagnostic, but was never adopted, and genuinely independent net execution outcomes would change the verdict.

A study of tanker stocks found that the relationship between two stocks, FRO and STNG, is strong, with a Pearson correlation of 0.7506 from January 2025 to September 2026. This means that the prices of these two stocks tend to move together. The study also found that the stock return on SPY, a common stock market index, plus an intercept, has slopes of 0.6291 and 0.4025. This suggests that even though the market beta, a measure of volatility, is low, the shared exposure to tanker stocks is not. The study looked at 41 and 38 trades for FRO and STNG, respectively, and found mean returns of 0.53025% and 0.37899%. However, these numbers are not reliable because they are based on a small number of trades and do not account for average losses. The study also used a technique called resampling to estimate the range of possible returns for these stocks. The results showed that the mean returns for FRO and STNG could be between -0.87436% and 1.95854%, and -0.75304% and 1.45383%, respectively. The study concluded that the evidence is not strong enough to say that the mean return is positive, and that the original idea of diversifying between these two stocks is not supported. The study also noted that the results are limited by the small number of trades and the fact that the market conditions may have changed. The study did not claim to have found any statistically significant results. The data for the study was retrieved from https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars on September 5, and the code and notes are archived.