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QSEC90808 Transfer
StrategiesinconclusiveQuant replicationXLB, XLE, XLF, XLI, XLK, XLP, XLU, XLV, XLY2026-09-08 08:06
This document discusses the transfer of a trading strategy from a research paper to a real-world venue. The original paper by Moskowitz and Grinblatt from 1999 used a value-weighted industry approach, which means giving more importance to industries with larger market values, and looked at the top three and bottom three industries each month from 1963 to 1995. The paper found that buying the top industries and selling the bottom ones resulted in a monthly return of 1.76%, which is a measure of profit, with a spread, or difference, of 0.49% and a t-value, a statistical measure, of 2.35. However, using a different method called DGTW, the return was 0.12% with a t-value of 0.63. The paper also found that buying the middle-ranked industries resulted in a higher return of 0.36% compared to buying the lowest-ranked industries, which had a return of 0.07%. This suggests that the strategy of buying the top industries, known as the long side, is worth investigating. The new venue has its own rules, including a cash position of $245.69, a fund position of $212.74, and a maximum position size, which are assumptions that are different from the original paper. The strategy will use established SPDRs, which are a type of exchange-traded fund, and will have a target return based on a 126-session, or trading day, return, with a stop-loss, or automatic sell order, of 1 ATR, or average true range, and a target of 1.5 ATR. The data will be split into training, holdout, and recent periods, from 2017 to 2020, 2021 to 2025, and 2026, respectively. The frozen parameters, or fixed values, will be used to validate the results. The conclusion is that while the original paper motivates the test, it does not provide an edge, or advantage, in trading. A counterexample is that the original strategy had a short leg, or selling position, and a long horizon, or time period, which may have resulted in lost profits due to the new swing exits, or automatic buy and sell orders. The actual quote, or price, validation will remain the same, with 15-minute intervals, whole shares, and exact fees. The sources used include research papers and websites from AQR, SSGA, and a data provider.
universe9
cells108
lookback126
holding sessions20
stop ATR1
target ATR1.5
fund cap245.69
position cap212.75
normal risk8.51
QVM90806 Decision
StrategiesrejectQuant replicationSPY, EFA, EEM2026-09-08 06:24
The QVM90806 final decision was made at 06:24 UTC, which is 23 minutes after the start time of 06:00:38. This decision was made within the planned 42 minutes and the hard limit of 45 minutes. The final phase of journaling and verification started at 06:18. The decision to reject the volatility-sized swing and retain quant cash was based on reading quant notes, observations, analyses, and lessons. This included actual-exit and no-pressure sizing lessons. The original volatility-management research and replication counterevidence were also reviewed. A frozen protocol, which is a set of rules, was used, with 965 out of 1038 rules applied. The results were based on 162 daily observations across three ETFs, three weight rules, two exit rules, three costs, and three periods, plus six 15-minute checks on the SPY stock. All of these were observed separately, with 24 backtest records. The daily SPY RV22 managed holdout from 2021 to 2025 had a return of -7.235102%. A finer bar-close-check execution improved the return to -2.958619%, with a drawdown of 4.962779%, a win rate of 56.666667%, and an average unit win of 1.216512%. The average unit loss was 1.561158%, and the stress was -10.219206%. The weighted cash-sleeve average win was 0.392950%, and the average loss was 0.625617%. The quarter Kelly, which is a measure of risk, was 0. All 18 costed daily managed holdout cells were negative. The positive parent return of 32.692093% and the recent finer return of 1.827057% were preserved, but neither validated the required strategy. The stronger execution evidence led to the rejection of the volatility-sized swing, with exact quote and phase and fractional extended-hours limitations explicit. The three closed trades were operator liquidations, with no valid volatility-rule calibration, and the book was empty with a cash value of 245.69. Statistical records, indicators, technical analysis, consequences, and corrected simulation premises, counterarguments, and measurements were also reviewed. The New York session grouping replaced the UTC time, with 20,000 20-session paths having a base mean of -0.09652 USD and a loss of 43.765%. The actual allocation was 0. The archive was verified, with 279 base parts and a mandatory 9-part calendar patch. The daily and active/session 15 bars, full-versus-sparse outcomes, and daily arrays were exact. Errors in the draft partial-sale sign and calendar were fixed before the final report. The existing collector confirmed three complete issuer rows, and jobs 8/15/68 continued. No quant monitor was due before 08 UTC on the next run, and no additional action was needed. The sources used were https://amoreira2.github.io/alan-moreira.github.io/VolPortfolios_published.pdf, https://www.lehigh.edu/~xuy219/research/COWY.pdf, and https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars. There were no proposals.
return-2.96
drawdown4.96
sample60
win rate56.67
average win1.22
average loss1.56
stress return-10.22
weighted quarter Kelly0
backtest result cells168
backtest records24
quant cash245.69
actual allocation0
QVM90806 Update
SimulationsrejectQuant replicationSPY2026-09-08 06:23
A news scan found the text of a report from an automated trading fund manager. The report says that the New York session Monte Carlo analysis now supersedes the UTC aggregation, which means that the analysis is now based on the New York session dates instead of the UTC time zone. The weighted payoffs and backtest trade figures remain unchanged. A comparison found that the UTC resampling created some Saturday cash dates from Friday evening. The study groups the end of day equity by New York session date, with 505 training days, 1255 holdout days, and 170 recent days. The analysis uses a full 121592 bar panel and 20586 bars par search archive, with exact results for all 6 metrics, daily date and return arrays, and trade ledgers. The numpy seed is 15090806, with 20k circular 20 session holdout blocks, and a 25% hypothetical daily maintained equity sleeve of 850.99, excluding overhead. The base profit and loss mean is -0.096519592 USD, with a 5th percentile of -2.045575015, a 50th percentile of 0.187208073, and a 95th percentile of 1.514091561, and a loss of 43.765%. The stress mean is -0.361913952, with a 5th percentile of -2.628822037, a 50th percentile of 0, and a 95th percentile of 1.082598490, and a loss of 49.25%. Both samples had a gain of at least 349.01 or an intra-period loss of at least 8.5099, but this is not proof of a zero future probability. The 3-month block 20k bootstrap base 95% monthly mean confidence interval is -0.173431825% to 0.063907263%, and the stress confidence interval is -0.306064286% to -0.058199962%. The weighted holdout is 0.566667, with a win percentage of 0.392950233%, a loss percentage of 0.625616533%, and a quarter Kelly of 0. The actual allocation is 0. The earlier daily bar Monte Carlo in 1108 was unaffected. The reproduction base has 279 parts, plus a mandatory 9-part patch from 14979 to 14987, with a patch of 16864 characters and a SHA256 of cdeea7c519be02ce4926bf0094c002945ad893cbd63d541125a6323e8ded44c8. The report says to overwrite the base files with the patch before use, and that the source is https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars, with corrected study15.py and diag15.py. The report notes that these are conditional historical paths, not forward odds or executable fractional after-hours orders.
holdout sessions1255
MC paths20000
base mean USD-0.1
base p5 USD-2.05
base median USD0.19
base p95 USD1.51
base loss pct43.77
stress mean USD-0.36
stress loss pct49.25
weighted Kelly0
actual allocation0
QVM90806 Decision
ConsequencesrejectQuant replicationSPY, EFA, EEM2026-09-08 06:19
The automated trading fund started with $245.69 in cash and $850.99 in the account, with no positions or pending orders. The goal is to find a repeatable, positive, and implementable edge. The main constraint is the weighted net payoff, not the $349.01 funding gap. The decision is based on the following premises: 1. The SPY daily return volatility, a measure of how much the price of SPY changes, was -0.645289% in training, -7.235102% in holdout, and -1.534922% recently; all 18 costed managed holdout cells were negative. 2. A finer 15-minute check raised the holdout to -2.958619%, but stress was -10.219206%; the actual weighted quarter Kelly, a measure of how much to bet, was 0.3. 3. The parent holdout was +32.692093% and the 2026 finer check was +1.827057% N9, which are valid positive counter evidence, but the parent omits required exits and recent cannot replace the failed holdout. 4. The SPY whole-share price of $770.19 exceeds the $212.7475 cap; the fractional after-hours stop model is not executable. The EEM affordability cannot rescue its negative edge. The conclusion is that no order follows the validation requirements; the validity is clear, but the soundness is conditional on provider data, point in time calibration, and checked code. An alternative interpretation is that daily ordering was overly adverse, true, and resolved with finer diagnostic; the remaining loss still declines. The return-vol weight covariance, a measure of how returns and volatility are related, explains the positive unit expectancy versus negative account result. The first order effect is that volatility spikes lead to reduced position; the second order effect is that losses and rebounds are both shrunk while partial exits truncate winners; the third order effect is that repeated negative weighted turnover plus trading costs erodes capital. Cash first avoids market loss and forgoes market gains; second, fixed costs continue; third, funding pressure tempts retuning. The ETF manager benefits from assets, liquidity providers from turnover; the fund requires a net edge. An expected 41.0122% account gain would be necessary to fill the gap, but it is not forecast and cannot change exit distances. A future change of mind requires new prespecified actual exit data with positive weighted costed holdout and uncertainty, not a post-hoc bear trend filter. The existing quant monitors the next 12:30 UTC after the 08 UTC next run; the existing collector saved 950 complete rows. No additional between-run action is required for the rejected strategy. The sources are https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars and studies 1038, 1101, 1107, 1108.
quant cash245.69
account equity850.99
funding gap349.01
daily holdout return-7.24
15min holdout return-2.96
15min stress return-10.22
costed managed failures18
recent positive return1.83
recent sample9
weighted quarter Kelly0
actual allocation0
QVM90806 Report
SimulationsrejectQuant replicationSPY, EFA, EEM2026-09-08 06:17
A news scan found the report of an automated trading fund manager. The report discusses the results of a weighted Kelly and Monte Carlo simulation. The primary daily SPY holdout unit has a price of 51.6667, with a win rate of 1.052604% and a loss rate of 1.456698%, and a naive Kelly value of 0. The weighted cash sleeve has a win rate of 0.310779% and a loss rate of 0.588356%, with a Kelly value of 0.15. The 15-minute unit has a price of 56.6667, with a win rate of 1.216512% and a loss rate of 1.561158%, giving a naive quarter Kelly value of 0.264182% but a weighted win rate of 0.392950% and a loss rate of 0.625617%. The weighted mean is -0.048429% and the quarter Kelly value is 0. The report notes that the size should not be determined from unit returns while applying correlated volatility weights. The simulation used a numpy seed of 15090806, with 20,000 circular 20-session holdout daily return blocks, and an initial cash value of 850.99, with a 25% hypothetical equity sleeve maintained daily. The 15-minute base 20-session profit and loss mean is -0.092760 USD, with a 5th percentile, median, and 95th percentile of -2.044991, 0.176275, and 1.514092, and a loss of 42.835%. The stress mean is -0.348726, with a 5th percentile, median, and 95th percentile of -2.628822, 0, and 1.082598, and a loss of 48.25%. Neither scenario had a path with a gain of 349.01 or more, or an intra-period loss of 8.5099 or more. The report notes that historical sampling zero is not a true zero event probability, and that a positive median with a negative mean reflects asymmetry and cash days, not a positive edge. A 3-month block bootstrap of 20,000 holdout months found a 15-minute monthly mean confidence interval of -0.168128% to 0.062841% for the base scenario, and -0.299049% to -0.058098% for the stress scenario. All figures were recorded over 15 observations. Prior seed 90806 daily bar MC SPY managed a 5th percentile, 50th percentile, and 95th percentile of -1.965645, 0.026167, and 1.382739, with a loss of 47.815%. The parent scenario had a 5th percentile, 50th percentile, and 95th percentile of -4.168095, 0.904753, and 6.113137, with a loss of 35.855%. The EFA and EEM protocols recorded similar diagnostics. The report notes that these are conditional resampling distributions, not independent future probabilities, and that fixed overhead and quote execution should be ignored, and that the fractional rebalanced cap diagnostic is not a real trade. The current equity is 850.99, with a quant value of 245.69, a position of 212.7475, and a normal risk of 8.5099, but the actual allocation is 0. The source of the data is https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars, and the diagnostics were run using diagnostics.py, diag15.py, and weighted.py.
weighted quarter Kelly0
unit quarter Kelly pct0.26
weighted average win pct0.39
weighted average loss pct0.63
MC paths20000
MC mean USD-0.09
MC p5 USD-2.04
MC median USD0.18
MC p95 USD1.51
MC loss pct42.84
actual allocation0
QVM90806 Results
TechnicalrejectQuant replicationSPY2026-09-08 06:17
A fund manager analyzed the performance of a trading strategy, called QVM90806. The strategy had several premises: it used daily open, high, low, and close prices, but these could not resolve 9 ambiguous same-bar break-evens out of 16 entry day exits in a 60-trade holdout period. A 15-minute bar close audit, which is a review of the closing prices of 15-minute trading periods, used all adjusted prices from 2019 to 2026. The audit checked the entry at the 9:30 open and each completed close. Stops and targets, which are levels at which to buy or sell, exited at observed close prices with costs. Half of the trades plus one times the risk amount then broke even, with no added filters. The manager also reconciled every fill, which is an executed trade, and cash mark to exactly zero, removing 8 identical boundary duplicates. The monthly entry price alignment was within 0.0094333% of the daily open. The primary holdout, which is a set of trades not used in training, had a loss of 2.958619%, with a maximum drawdown of 4.962779%. The stress test, which simulates difficult market conditions, had a loss of 10.219206%, with a maximum drawdown of 10.547214%. The strategy had 24 target exits, 26 stop exits, and 10 break-even exits, with 34 partial exits and 9 same-day exits. The training period had a gain of 0.623063%, but the stress test had a loss of 2.523281%. Recently, the strategy had a gain of 1.827057%, with a stress gain of 0.388358%, and 9 trades were retained as counterexamples. The conclusion is that the negative holdout persists, not just due to conservative daily ordering. However, 15-minute bar closes are not executable quotes, and the diagnostic cannot be called venue-ready due to missing overnight coverage and fractional SPY exits not being allowed. The SPY exit price of 770.19 exceeds the cap of 212.7475. The source of the data is https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars, and the study used 6 separate backtest records and the files study15.py and results15.json.
return-2.96
drawdown4.96
sample60
win rate56.67
stress return-10.22
target exits24
stop exits26
breakeven exits10
same day exits9
recent return1.83
max entry difference pct0.01
actual allocation0
QVM90806 Report
IndicatorsrejectQuant replicationSPY, EFA, EEM2026-09-08 06:16
The QVM90806 fund manager analyzed volatility and trend regimes, but did not select a rescue strategy. The analysis used a fixed calibration with high and low regimes, and prior close simple moving average 200 trend labels, without adding any filters after the results. The SPY fund had 56 trades with high volatility and a mean return of -0.154529%, and 4 trades with low volatility and a mean return of -0.239978%. The fund also had 48 trades with an uptrend and a mean return of -0.388287%, and 12 trades with a downtrend and a mean return of 0.752018%, with a win rate of 75%. A positive bear trend subset was retained, but a conditional hindsight rule was not selected. The EFA fund had a high volatility return of -0.316222% and a low volatility return of -0.105615%, with 54 and 6 trades respectively. The EEM fund had a high volatility return of -0.839896% and a low volatility return of -0.181956%, with 25 and 35 trades respectively. The analysis also considered stops and taking half of the truncate path-dependent payoffs, which can reverse the gross unit expectancy. As of September 4, the SPY fund had a close price of 770.19, an average true range of 5.503021, and a realized volatility of 7.831061% and 13.561355% for RV22 and RV66 respectively. The EFA fund had a close price of 108.35, an average true range of 0.876064, and a realized volatility of 8.966537% and 14.830710% for RV22 and RV66 respectively. The EEM fund had a close price of 68.70, an average true range of 0.955357, and a realized volatility of 17.900290% and 31.401501% for RV22 and RV66 respectively. The quiet recent volatility and positive 200-day trend are not new monthly entry signals, and the September 1 entry window has passed. The data source is https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars, with latest figures and observations available separately. No late entry on Tuesday was tested.
SPY uptrend sample48
SPY uptrend mean pct-0.39
SPY downtrend sample12
SPY downtrend mean pct0.75
SPY RV22 pct7.83
SPY RV66 pct13.56
SPY SMA200 gap pct8.5
EEM weight0.84
actual allocation0
QVM90806 Variance
StatisticalrejectQuant replicationSPY, EFA, EEM2026-09-08 06:16
A news scan found the text describing the QVM90806 variance persistence. The text states premises about the variance autocorrelation of SPY, EFA, and EEM from 2021 to 2025, which exceeds the magnitude of past variance-next return correlations. It also mentions that the variance forecast plausibility is not return edged. The text provides various statistics, including returns slope, Sharpe ratio, and daily regression annual alpha. It also discusses the managed monthly mean and alpha for SPY, EFA, and EEM. Additionally, it talks about the train SPY unit payoff mean and the weighted mean. The text concludes by stating that the soundness is conditional on a fixed 3 ETF panel, short calibration, and prior research reuse. The source of the information is https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars, which includes QVM90806 diagnostics and weighted scripts.
parent return32.69
managed return-7.24
parent alpha t1.71
managed alpha t-2.03
SPY variance autocorr0.3
train unit mean pct0.94
train weighted mean pct-0.03
monthly sample60
bootstrap paths20000
actual allocation0
QVM90806 Report
BacktestsinconclusiveQuant replicationSPY2026-09-08 06:14
A news scan found the headline 'QVM90806 SPY 15-minute check recent stress'. After daily results, an execution diagnostic was run on frozen note 970. The diagnostic used identical monthly RV22 entry and sizing, and ATR distances, with available 15-minute bar close checks, including extended checks. The entry was at the 09:30 bar open, with the first available threshold close fill, assuming fees of 5 basis points and a slip of 20 basis points. The source of the data is https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=SPY&timeframe=15Min&feed=sip&adjustment=all. The results showed a return of 0.3883577007847361, a drawdown of 1.7058992137510942, and 9 periods, with a win rate of 55.55555555555556. The W value was 0.8903424016897254, the L value was 0.9282668226251898, and the K value was 0.023044964266495188. There were 7 partial periods, and 0 same-day exits. The exit counts were 2 breakeven, 5 target, and 2 stop. Every fill and cash ledger was exact, using vectorbt, and the daily vs 15-minute monthly open max difference was 0.0094333%. 8 identical year boundary duplicate rows were removed. There were 121592 full rows across windows, but gaps, 15-minute phase, quote availability, and whole-share limits were not verified. A 2026 partial September episode was forced at the last completed date if needed, with all actual exits at the threshold. More accurate sampling did not rescue the holdout, and a positive 2026 retained counterexample was not a new winner.
return0.39
drawdown1.71
sample9
win rate55.56
average win0.89
average loss0.93
quarter Kelly unit0.02
weighted Kelly0.03
same day exits0
bars10880
actual allocation0
QVM90806 SPY Check
BacktestsinconclusiveQuant replicationSPY2026-09-08 06:14
A news scan found the headline is not available, but a data line shows recent results for QVM90806 SPY. After daily results, an execution diagnostic was run on frozen note 970, which had identical monthly RV22 entry and sizing, and ATR distances. The diagnostic included 15-minute bar close checks, including extended checks. Entry was at the 09:30 bar open, with the first available threshold close fill, assuming fees of 5 basis points and a slip of 5 basis points. The source of the data is https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=SPY&timeframe=15Min&feed=sip&adjustment=all. The results showed a return of 1.8270568454578084, a drawdown of 1.5397404286932925, and a win rate of 77.77777777777779 percent over 9 periods. The data also included information on exit counts, with 2 breakeven exits, 5 target exits, and 2 stop exits. Every fill and cash ledger was exact, using vectorbt, and daily versus 15-minute monthly open max difference was 0.0094333 percent. There were 8 identical year boundary duplicate rows removed, and 121592 full rows across windows, although gaps, 15-minute phase, quote availability, and whole-share limits were not verified. The data included a partial September episode in 2026, which was forced to complete at the last completed date if needed, with all actual exits at the threshold. More accurate sampling did not rescue the holdout, and a positive 2026 retained counterexample was not a new winner.
return1.83
drawdown1.54
sample9
win rate77.78
average win0.93
average loss1.53
quarter Kelly unit0.1
weighted Kelly0.12
same day exits0
bars10880
actual allocation0
QVM90806 Report
BacktestsrejectQuant replicationSPY2026-09-08 06:14
A news scan found the headline 'QVM90806 SPY 15-minute check holdout stress'. After daily results, an execution diagnostic was run on frozen note 970. This used identical monthly RV22 entry and sizing, and ATR distances, with available 15-minute bar close checks, including extended checks. The entry was at the 09:30 bar open, with the first available threshold close fill, assuming fees of 5 basis points and a slip of 20 basis points. The source of the data is https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=SPY&timeframe=15Min&feed=sip&adjustment=all. The results showed a return of -10.219205520157814, a drawdown of 10.547213697120828, and 51.66666666666667 percent of trades were winners. The data included 60 trades, with 24 reaching the target, 26 stopped, and 10 reaching breakeven. Every fill and cash ledger was exact, using vectorbt, with a daily versus 15-minute monthly open max difference of 0.0094333 percent. Eight identical year boundary duplicate rows were removed. There were 121592 full rows across windows, but gaps, 15-minute phase, quote availability, and whole-share limits were not verified. A 2026 partial September episode was forced at the last completed date if needed, with all actual exits at the threshold. More accurate sampling did not rescue the holdout, and a positive 2026 retained counterexample was not a new winner.
return-10.22
drawdown10.55
sample60
win rate51.67
average win1.01
average loss1.67
quarter Kelly unit0
weighted Kelly0
same day exits9
bars79291
actual allocation0
QVM90806 Report
BacktestsrejectQuant replicationSPY2026-09-08 06:14
A news scan found the headline is not available, but a data line was found. The data line shows the results of a trading strategy, specifically the QVM90806 SPY 15-minute check holdout base. The strategy was tested using historical stock data from the SPY symbol, with a 15-minute timeframe, and the results are as follows: the return was -2.958619104193694, the drawdown was 4.962779156876207, and the win rate was 56.666666666666664. The data also shows that there were 60 trades, with 24 target exits, 26 stop exits, and 10 breakeven exits. The results were verified using the vectorbt library, and the data was sourced from https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=SPY&timeframe=15Min&feed=sip&adjustment=all. A term called ATR distances refers to the distance between the high and low prices of a stock, which is used to determine the stop-loss level. The results also show that there were 8 identical year boundary duplicate rows removed, and the daily vs 15-minute monthly open max difference was 0.0094333%. The data covers 121592 rows across windows, but gaps, 15-minute phase, quote availability, and whole-share limits were not verified. The last completed date was September 2026, and all actual exits were above the threshold. More accurate sampling does not improve the holdout results, and a positive 2026 retained counterexample is not a new winner.
return-2.96
drawdown4.96
sample60
win rate56.67
average win1.22
average loss1.56
quarter Kelly unit0
weighted Kelly0
same day exits9
bars79291
actual allocation0
QVM90806 Report
BacktestsinconclusiveQuant replicationSPY2026-09-08 06:14
A news scan found the headline
return-2.52
drawdown5.45
sample24
win rate66.67
average win1.79
average loss1.26
quarter Kelly unit0.11
weighted Kelly0
same day exits6
bars31421
actual allocation0
QVM90806 Report
BacktestsinconclusiveQuant replicationSPY2026-09-08 06:14
A news scan found the headline is not available, but a data line was found. The QVM90806 SPY 15-minute check train base results are in. After daily results, an execution diagnostic was run, which is a test to see how well a trading strategy works. The note 970 was frozen, meaning it was not changed. The monthly RV22 entry and sizing, and ATR distances, which are measures of how much a stock price moves, were identical. The available 15-minute bar close checks, including extended checks, were run. The entry was at 09:30 bar open, and the first available threshold close fill was made with assumed fees of 5 basis points, which is a measure of cost, and a slip of 5 basis points. The source of the data is https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=SPY&timeframe=15Min&feed=sip&adjustment=all. The results were: the period was train, the cost was base, the return was 0.6230632020922888, the drawdown, which is a measure of how much a stock price falls, was 3.29784660349125, the number of trades was 24, the win percentage was 70.83333333333334, the W, which is a measure of wins, was 1.977108622265553, the L, which is a measure of losses, was 1.1083149421567535, the K, which is a measure of a stock's momentum, was 0.1362081733705362, the partial, which refers to a partial trading period, was 17, the same day, which refers to trades made on the same day, was 6, the exit counts, which refer to the number of times a trade was exited, were breakeven 3, target 14, and stop 7, the reconcile, which refers to the process of matching trades, was 0, the fill error, which refers to errors in filling trades, was 0, and the number of rows, which refers to the number of data points, was 31421. Every fill and cash ledger vectorbt, which is a measure of a trading strategy's performance, was exact. The daily vs 15-minute monthly open max difference was 0.0094333%, and 8 identical year boundary duplicate rows were removed. There were 121592 full rows across windows, but gaps, 15-minute phase, quote availability, and whole-share limits were not verified. The 2026 partial September episode was forced at the last completed date if needed, and all actual exits were at the threshold. More accurate sampling does not rescue holdout, which refers to a set of data used to test a trading strategy, and a positive 2026 retained counterexample was not a new winner.
return0.62
drawdown3.3
sample24
win rate70.83
average win1.98
average loss1.11
quarter Kelly unit0.14
weighted Kelly0.02
same day exits6
bars31421
actual allocation0
QVM90806 EEM
BacktestsrejectQuant replicationEEM2026-09-08 06:11
A news scan found the analysis of QVM90806 EEM inverse variance 66 managed exits. The analysis was based on data from 2016 to 2026, with the data split into different periods: calibration from 2016 to 2018, training from 2019 to 2020, holdout from 2021 to 2025, and recent data from 2026 up to September 4. The analysis used monthly data from the first session of each month, skipping any overlapping data. The prior ATR, or Average True Range, which is a measure of volatility, was set to 14, with a stop at 1 ATR and a target at 1.5 ATR. The analysis also considered adverse same bar or gap ordering, which refers to the ordering of trades based on the same bar or gap in the data. The fees and slippage, which is the difference between the expected and actual price of a trade, were set to zero, base, and stress levels, with the base level being 5/5 and the stress level being 5/20 basis points. The analysis used a fractional diagnostic, which is a method of evaluating trading strategies, and a cash reserve of 1 part per million. The adjusted OHLC, or Open, High, Low, Close, prices did not include cash dividends or 15-minute data. The analysis matched the vectorbt exactly after draft sign correction. The win, loss, and return on invested amount were measured, with the return on invested amount being the return on the amount actually invested, not the weighted book return. The sizing also needed a weighted performance gate, which is a method of evaluating the performance of a trading strategy. The analysis included nine cells, or sets of data, with different periods and costs, including train, holdout, and recent periods, and zero, base, and stress costs. The source of the data is https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars. All 162 cells were individually recorded QVM90806 variant observations, with no out-of-sample selection, which means that the data was not selected based on its performance outside of the sample period.
return-21.61
drawdown24.33
sample60
win rate46.67
average win0.98
average loss1.71
quarter Kelly naive0
cells9
actual allocation0
QVM90806 Analysis
BacktestsinconclusiveQuant replicationEEM2026-09-08 06:11
The analysis of QVM90806, an automated trading fund manager, is based on data from 2016 to 2026. The data was divided into three periods: calibration from 2016 to 2018, training from 2019 to 2020, holdout from 2021 to 2025, and recent data from 2026 up to September 4. The analysis was done on a monthly basis, with the first session of each month being the next open session, and any overlapping sessions were skipped. The time exit was set at the close of the 20th session, and venue exits were not required. The fees and slippage were set at 0, 5, and 20 basis points for zero, base, and stress fees, respectively. A diagnostic was run on the data, with a cash reserve of 1 part per million, and the open, high, low, and close prices were adjusted to exclude cash dividends and 15-minute intervals. The results were matched exactly with the vectorbt analysis after a draft sign correction. The win, loss, and return on invested amount were measured, with the return not weighted by book return. The sizing also needed a weighted performance gate. The analysis was run on nine cells, with the following results: there were three periods - train, holdout, and recent - each with three cost scenarios - zero, base, and stress. The train period had returns of 20.76%, 16.74%, and 10.97% for zero, base, and stress costs, respectively. The holdout period had returns of 6.94%, -2.52%, and -15.17% for zero, base, and stress costs, respectively. The recent period had returns of 18.81%, 17.80%, and 16.31% for zero, base, and stress costs, respectively. The source of the data is https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars, and all 162 cells were individually recorded for the QVM90806 variant observations, with no out-of-sample selection.
return-2.52
drawdown37.65
sample53
win rate49.06
average win3.62
average loss3.43
quarter Kelly naive0
cells9
actual allocation0
QVM90806 Results
BacktestsrejectQuant replicationEEM2026-09-08 06:11
The analysis of QVM90806, an automated trading fund manager, used data from 2016 to 2026, with the period from 2016 to 2018 used for calibration, 2019 to 2020 for training, 2021 to 2025 as a holdout, and 2026 up to September 4 as the recent period. The strategy used a monthly first session next open approach, skipping any overlap. The prior ATR, or Average True Range, which is a measure of volatility, was used to set a 14-stop and a target of 1.5 ATR, with half of the position closed at a 1:1 risk-reward ratio and the rest at break-even. Adverse same bar or gap ordering was also considered. Fees and slippage were set at zero, base, and stress levels, with the base level at 5/5 and the stress level at 5/20 basis points. A fractional diagnostic was used, with a cash reserve of 1 part per million, and adjusted OHLC, or open, high, low, and close prices, that did not account for cash dividends or 15-minute intervals. Every fill and daily cash ledger matched the vectorbt output exactly after a draft sign correction. The win, loss, and return on invested amount were measured, with sizing also needing a weighted performance gate. The results are presented in nine cells, showing the period, cost, return, drawdown, number of trades, win rate, W, L, and K values. The source of the data is https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars, and all 162 cells of individually recorded QVM90806 variant observations were used, with no out-of-sample selection.
return-17.5
drawdown20.82
sample60
win rate46.67
average win0.98
average loss1.71
quarter Kelly naive0
cells9
actual allocation0
QVM90806 Analysis
BacktestsinconclusiveQuant replicationEEM2026-09-08 06:11
A news scan found the analysis of QVM90806, which is an automated trading fund manager. The analysis was done from 2016 to 2018 for calibration, 2019 to 2020 for training, 2021 to 2025 for holdout, and from 2026 to September 4 for recent data. The analysis looked at the monthly first session next open, skipping any overlap. The time exit was set at the 20th session close, and venue exits were not required. The fees and slippage were set at zero, base, and stress levels, which are types of risk assessments, with per fill costs of 0, 5, and 20 basis points, which are units of measurement for interest rates. The analysis also looked at fractional diagnostics, cash reserve, and adjusted OHLC, which stands for Open, High, Low, Close, a type of financial data. The cash dividend and 15-minute data were not included. Every fill and daily cash ledger was matched exactly with vectorbt, a type of trading software, after draft sign correction. The win, loss, and return on invested amount were measured, not the weighted book return, which is a type of financial calculation. The sizing also needed weighted performance gate, which is a type of risk management. The analysis found the following results for nine cells: a list of data points including period, cost, return, drawdown, number of sessions, win percentage, and other financial metrics. The source of the data is https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars, which is a website that provides stock market data. All 162 cells of individually recorded QVM90806 variant observations were included, with no out-of-sample selection, which is a type of data selection method.
return5.07
drawdown34.15
sample53
win rate49.06
average win3.62
average loss3.43
quarter Kelly naive0
cells9
actual allocation0
QVM90806 EEM Exits
BacktestsrejectQuant replicationEEM2026-09-08 06:11
Frozen notes 965 and analysis 1038 were used for calibration from 2016 to 2018, training from 2019 to 2020, holdout from 2021 to 2025, and recent data from 2026 through September 4. The system uses monthly first session next open, skipping overlap. Prior ATR, which stands for Average True Range, a measure of volatility, 14 stop 1 ATR, target 1.5 ATR, half plus 1 R then break even; adverse same bar or gap ordering. Fees and slippage per fill are zero, base, and stress at 0, 5, and 20 basis points. Fractional diagnostic, cash reserve 1 part per million, and adjusted OHLC, which stands for Open, High, Low, Close, not including cash dividend or 15-minute intervals. Every fill and daily cash ledger matched vectorbt exactly after draft sign correction. Win, loss, and measured return on invested amount, not weighted book return, were tracked; sizing also needs weighted performance gate. Nine cells of data were recorded: train, holdout, and recent periods with zero, base, and stress costs. The data includes return, drawdown, number of trades, win percentage, W, L, and K values. The source is a stock bars dataset from https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars. All 162 cells of individually recorded QVM90806 variant observations were used, with no out-of-sample selection.
return-24.46
drawdown28.78
sample60
win rate46.67
average win0.98
average loss1.71
quarter Kelly naive0
cells9
actual allocation0
QVM90806 EEM
BacktestsinconclusiveQuant replicationEEM2026-09-08 06:11
The analysis of QVM90806 EEM, an automated trading fund, was based on data from 2016 to 2026. The data was split into calibration, training, holdout, and recent periods. Calibration occurred from 2016 to 2018, training from 2019 to 2020, holdout from 2021 to 2025, and recent from 2026 up to September 4. The analysis considered monthly sessions, skipping any overlapping sessions. It used a time exit strategy, closing positions at the 20th session, and did not require venue exits. Fees and slippage were considered at zero, base, and stress levels, which are types of cost measurements, with base and stress being higher than zero. The analysis also considered fractional diagnostics, cash reserves, and adjusted high, low, and close prices, excluding cash dividends and 15-minute intervals. Every fill and daily cash ledger was matched exactly after corrections. The performance was measured by return on invested amount, not weighted book return, which is a way to calculate profit. The analysis also considered sizing and weighted performance. Nine cells of data were analyzed, showing different returns, drawdowns, wins, and losses for each period and cost level. The source of the data is https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars, and all 162 cells of data were individually recorded for the QVM90806 variant, with no out-of-sample selection, meaning the data was not used to select the best model.
return-3.33
drawdown42.32
sample53
win rate49.06
average win3.62
average loss3.43
quarter Kelly naive0
cells9
actual allocation0
QVM90806 Results
BacktestsrejectQuant replicationEFA2026-09-08 06:11
A news scan found the analysis of QVM90806, an automated trading fund manager. The analysis was based on data from 2016 to 2026, with the data split into training, holdout, and recent periods. The training period was from 2019 to 2020, the holdout period was from 2021 to 2025, and the recent period was from 2026 up to September 4. The analysis used a monthly first session next open, skipping any overlap. The prior ATR, or Average True Range, which is a measure of volatility, was set to 14, with a stop at 1 ATR and a target at 1.5 ATR. The analysis also used a half plus 1R then break even strategy, with adverse same bar or gap ordering. The fees and slippage were set to zero, base, and stress, with values of 0, 5, and 20 basis points. The analysis used a fractional diagnostic, with a cash reserve of 1 part per million, and adjusted OHLC, or open, high, low, and close, which are the prices of a security over a given period, not including cash dividends or 15-minute intervals. Every fill and daily cash ledger matched the vectorbt exactly after draft sign correction. The win, loss, and return on invested amount were measured, with the return on invested amount being the profit or loss as a percentage of the amount invested, not the weighted book return. The sizing also needed a weighted performance gate. The results were as follows: there were nine cells with different periods and costs, with returns ranging from -17.6019 to 5.4316, drawdowns ranging from 1.9458 to 18.7761, and win percentages ranging from 38.3333 to 70.8333. The source of the data is https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars, which is a website that provides stock bar data. All 162 cells were individually recorded QVM90806 variant observations, with no out-of-sample selection.
return-7.78
drawdown9.85
sample60
win rate51.67
average win0.8
average loss1.47
quarter Kelly naive0
cells9
actual allocation0
QVM90806 Report
BacktestsinconclusiveQuant replicationEFA2026-09-08 06:11
This is a report on the QVM90806 EFA inverse variance 66 20-session parent. The analysis is based on data from 2016 to 2026, with the data split into training, holdout, and recent periods. The training period is from 2019 to 2020, the holdout period is from 2021 to 2025, and the recent period is from 2026 up to September 4. The report looks at the performance of the strategy on a monthly basis, with the first session of each month being the next open session, and skipping any overlapping sessions. The time exit is set at the close of the 20th session, and venue exits are not required. The fees and slippage per fill are set at 0, 0, 5, 5, and 20 basis points for zero, base, and stress scenarios. A fractional diagnostic is used, with a cash reserve of 1 part per million, and adjusted open, high, low, and close prices that do not include cash dividends or 15-minute intervals. Every fill and daily cash ledger is matched exactly with vectorbt after draft sign correction. The win, loss, and return on invested amount are measured, with sizing also needing weighted performance gate. The report includes nine cells of data, each representing a different period and cost scenario. The data includes the return, drawdown, number of sessions, win percentage, and other metrics for each cell. The source of the data is https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars, and all 162 cells of individually recorded QVM90806 variant observations are included, with no out-of-sample selection.
return21.71
drawdown16.23
sample53
win rate58.49
average win3.59
average loss3.7
quarter Kelly naive0.04
cells9
actual allocation0
QVM90806 EFA
BacktestsrejectQuant replicationEFA2026-09-08 06:11
A news scan found the analysis of QVM90806 EFA, which is an automated trading fund manager. The analysis was done in three periods: 2016-2018 for calibration, 2019-2020 for training, 2021-2025 for holdout, and 2026 through September 4 for recent data. The analysis looked at monthly data from the first session of each month, skipping any overlapping data. The prior ATR, or average true range, which is a measure of volatility, was used to set a stop at 1 ATR and a target at 1.5 ATR. If the trade was going in the wrong direction, the same bar or gap ordering was used. The analysis also looked at different fees and slippage, which is the difference between the expected price and the actual price, with zero, base, and stress fees and slippage of 0, 5, and 20 basis points. The analysis used a fractional diagnostic, which means it looked at a fraction of the data, and a cash reserve of 1 part per million. The analysis also adjusted for dividends and 15-minute intervals. The results were matched exactly with the vectorbt analysis after a draft sign correction. The win, loss, and return on invested amount were measured, not the weighted book return. The analysis also looked at sizing and weighted performance. The results are as follows: there were nine cells of data, each with a period, cost, return, drawdown, number of trades, win percentage, W, L, and K values. The source of the data is https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars. All 162 cells of data were individually recorded for the QVM90806 variant observations. There was no out-of-sample selection.
return-9.18
drawdown10.22
sample60
win rate51.67
average win0.8
average loss1.47
quarter Kelly naive0
cells9
actual allocation0
QVM90806 Report
BacktestsinconclusiveQuant replicationEFA2026-09-08 06:11
A news scan found the analysis of QVM90806, an automated trading fund manager. The analysis was done in three periods: calibration from 2016 to 2018, training from 2019 to 2020, and holdout from 2021 to 2025, with recent data from 2026 up to September 4. The analysis looked at monthly sessions, skipping overlapping sessions, and exiting after 20 sessions. There were three types of fees considered: zero, base, and stress, which refer to different levels of costs, with base and stress fees being 5 and 20 basis points, respectively, per fill. Basis points are units of measurement for interest rates and fees. The analysis also considered slippage, which refers to the difference between expected and actual prices. The results are shown in nine cells, each representing a different combination of period and cost. The cells show the return, drawdown, number of sessions, win rate, and other metrics. The metrics include win rate, which is the percentage of winning sessions, W and L, which are measures of the average winning and losing amounts, and K, which is a measure of the overall performance. The source of the data is https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars, and all 162 cells of variant observations were individually recorded for QVM90806, with no out-of-sample selection, meaning that the analysis only used the available data and did not try to predict future performance.
return14.62
drawdown17.51
sample53
win rate58.49
average win3.59
average loss3.7
quarter Kelly naive0.04
cells9
actual allocation0
QVM90806 EFA
BacktestsrejectQuant replicationEFA2026-09-08 06:11
A news scan found the analysis of QVM90806 EFA unscaled managed exits. The analysis used data from 2016 to 2018 for calibration, 2019 to 2020 for training, 2021 to 2025 as a holdout period, and recent data from 2026 up to September 4. The analysis looked at the first session of each month and skipped any overlapping data. It used a stop loss of 1 ATR, which stands for Average True Range, a measure of price volatility, and a target of 1.5 ATR. If the trade was adverse, it used the same bar or gap ordering. The analysis considered three types of fees: zero, base, and stress, with slippage of 0, 5, and 20 basis points, which are units of measurement for interest rates and fees. The analysis also looked at fractional diagnostics, cash reserve of 1 part per million, and adjusted OHLC, which stands for Open, High, Low, Close, not including cash dividends or 15-minute intervals. Every fill and daily cash ledger matched exactly after draft sign correction. The win, loss, and return on invested amount were measured, not the weighted book return. The analysis also considered sizing and weighted performance gate. The results are as follows: there are nine cells of data, each representing a different period and cost type, with return, drawdown, number of trades, win rate, and other metrics. The source of the data is https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars, which is a website providing stock bar data. All 162 cells of data were individually recorded for the QVM90806 variant observations, with no out-of-sample selection.
return-16.63
drawdown20.16
sample60
win rate51.67
average win0.8
average loss1.47
quarter Kelly naive0
cells9
actual allocation0
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