Stats

Premises:1. Fixed seed9110800, 10000 samples per window of actual overlapping five-session log-return blocks; train2016–20 has1254 blocks, historical2021–25 validation1251. No2026 future return or event filter.2. Illustrative one share at lastclose147.065, fee1bp/slip15bp each side, nominalrisk8.759085, target3R, daily-close sampled full exits; this is NOT monitor229's1.5R paper or the venue's15min/+2R management.3. Historical-validation P5/median/P95 PnL=-14.1958/+0.1541/+19.3857USD; loss49.51%, target3.16%, meanwin5.7113%/meanloss5.1804%, realizedratio1.1025. Daily-sampled losses exceed1ADR in21.87% and3ADR in0.48% of resamples. Training target2.09%, P5-12.7609USD. Conclusion: nominal3R does not mean realized3:1 or bounded stop loss. Cash-constrained half-Kelly point0.29433 and binary half-riskproxy0.02791 describe different units; neither is a live size without conditional net edge. Actualallocation0. Assumptions: historical blocks representative, costs adequate and dailyclose fills possible; omitted quote latency, unseen regimes and event selection can worsen outcomes. Ten thousand draws are not ten thousand independent events; no probability forecast for today's signal. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; research/risk_study.py.

Premises:1 ResampleprimarySPYstressholdoutdailyportfolio,notbestinstrument;10000paths,21sessionoverlappingblocks,12blocks/path,seed9110600. Full187.22fundsimulation21sessionPnLP5/median/P95=-7.14047/+1.12515/+9.14850USD,lossprob41.26%;0pathsreach349.01USD,notproofimpossibility.252sessionreturnP5/median/P95=-7.37690/+7.64308/+26.10463%;maxDDmedian/P957.19169/13.96092%.2 Blocks preserveonly21sessiondependence andcannotgenerateunobservedtailgaps;theseareempiricalscenarios,notforecasts.3 Unitcheck:binary.5*(p-q/b)givesrisk-unitproxy3.19387%train/11.17596%test onfundmonthlypayoffs; itisnotnotionalallocationbecauseaveragewinning/losingreturnsmallerthan100%. Directmaximizeaverage log(1+f*monthlyreturn) givesunconstrainednotionalKelly2.99531/9.38231;halvingthencappingcashgives1.0,whilehalvingcash-constrainedoptimumgives.5. Neitherpointestimateincorporatesparameteruncertaintyorgapsbeyondhistory.4 Livefraction0becausebothmeanCIs crosszero,incrementalalphaunproven,monthlyentrynotdue,and15minpolicyunvalidated;donotmislabelthisnegativeKelly. Fundcap187.22,accountcap212.7475,normalstoprisk25.5297USD areceilings,notpositionrecommendations. Fundinggapexcludedfromtargets. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; research/inference.py,sizing.py.

Premises:1 Sample primary5 stressholdout dailycashportfolio, notbestneighbor, asrecorded.2 Seed9110400 draws10000paths fromoverlapping21-sessionblocks,12blocks=252sessions. Preserveswithinblockdependence, missesnewregimes,longmemoryandunseenfat-tailgaps; notforecast.3 Applyingfull187.22USDfund gives21session P5/median/P95PnL −13.13308/−1.058883/+14.38771USD,55.84%lossprobability; zero empiricalpaths gain349.01USD, whichisnotproofimpossibility.252session return P5/median/P95−25.72362/−3.98388/+24.46864%,DDmedian/P95 17.16606/30.95414%.4 HalfKelly=0.5*(p−(1−p)/(avgwin/avgloss)),clippedat0. Primary stress p44.3137%,W/L1.22364 =>negativeunclippedKelly,live0; trainingstressalso0. Baselineplugin3.146%doesnotoverridecostfailure. Accountnormal3%risk25.5297USD,positionceiling212.7475,fund187.22; alladditionalcaps, notentitlementtomaximumsize. Afullfundgaplosswouldbe22%account, sofundcapaloneisnotagapbudget. Conclusion sizezero; fundingneeddoesnotdeterminebarriers. Counterargumentresamplingmissesfuturebonanza accepted,butnoindependentpositiveedgejustifiespayingforitwiththisrule. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; research/inference.py/json.

Premises:1 Sample frozen252daystressholdoutdailyportfolio, threefractionalsleeves,3000normalizedcapital.2 Seed9110200,10000paths,resampleoverlapping21dayblocks,12blocks=252sessions; preserveswithinblockdependence butmissesnovelregimes,longmemoryandfuturegaps.3 On187.22fund21sessionP5/median/P95PnL=-8.5383/1.0334/11.9949USD,lossprob0.4298,zeroempiricalgain>=349.01; annualreturnP5/50/95=-10.6848/7.1039/29.3271%,drawdownP50/95=9.4809/17.6986%. Notforecast andzerocountisnotimpossibility. Primarytrainingnegative keepshalfKelly0; temptingholdout6.14%riskplugin wouldbecapped byaccount3%normalrisk25.5297USDand187.22funddeployment/212.7475positionceiling, butnotused. A totalfundgap loss187.22wouldbe22%account, so fundcapaloneisnotgapriskbudget. Strongestcounterargument fatpositive tailsnotcapturedcanpay; doesnotjustify changingtargettomeet349.01fundinggap. Rate7.1887%CAGR over7.67yearsholdoutvs70.3186%total, not70%monthly. Sources frozen2406; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; research/inference.py/json.

Premises:1 Holdout200dayadapter stressed portfolio dailyreturns, same9equalcapital sleeves, form empirical input, not independentvalidation.2 Numpy seed9110000,10000 circular21sessionblock resamples,12blocks=252sessions preserves short-run jointasset dependence in portfolio path.3 Full187.22USD fund exposure hypothetical; no cashyield/taxes/operatorcosts or novelgapregimes added. Conditional21session return5th/median/95th=-1.33939/.008828/2.01433%, dollars-2.50760/.01653/3.77122; lossfrequency45.48%. 252session return5th/median/95th=-3.60460/1.48298/7.46494%; maximumdrawdownmedian2.69158%,95th5.52478%. Noneof10000 paths gains349.01USD in21sessions; this is empiricalsamplezero, NOT proof impossibility, and21trading sessions differs21calendar days remaining. Funding gap requires186.41705% return onQuantcash alone; changing target cannot create it. Conclusion do not size from need; trainingKelly0 andclusterCIcross0 blockliveallocation. Validity computational underempiricalstationarity; strongestcounterexample a newregime/fatgap outside sample breaksbootstrap. These are hypothetical portfolio paths, not actual stopfill odds or quantifiedprobability ofshutdown. Source research/inference.py/inference.json and https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .

1. Seed91008 generates20,000 historical resamples using five-session circular blocks of shared daily ETF portfolio returns. Horizon15 NYSE sessions matches Sep10–30, not21 trading days. Each path assumes187.22 in hypothetical daily1/8 sleeves, preserving cash for absent signals; these are not PDT/whole-share feasible portfolios. 2. Base P05/P50/P95 profit dollars [−3.481335,−0.445873,+2.013570], loss66.22%. Stress [−4.757233,−1.327922,+0.892286], loss87.655%. No sampled path reaches349.01; this is not a proof of impossibility or a tail bound. 3. Fixed trade p=43.9795%, avgwin0.617582%, avgloss0.682769%, so quarter Kelly clipped at0. Stressed p31.7992%, avgwin0.614577%, avgloss0.741765%, also0. Expected loss per hypothetical187.22 trade is0.20759 base/0.58124 stress. Conclusion: actual size0. Fund cap187.22, account position cap212.7475 and nominal1% risk8.5099 are ceilings, not reasons to deploy. Stationarity, spreads and future signal rates are assumptions. Source: https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all&timeframe=15Min .

P1 MonteCarlo20000pathsseed91006 samples3monthblocksfrom71holdoutmonthsof8ETFmeanreturns,12opportunitiesperpathwithmonthlycapitalreset. Hypothetical187.22fullyallocated;notactual8whole-sharesleeves. Base12monthP05/P50/P95USD[-15.217884,-1.408535,12.389534],loss56.995%;stress[-19.290286,-5.900868,7.624624],loss76.77%. OnefuturemonthlyhistoricaldrawstressP05/P50/P95[-3.367474,-.606303,3.601650]. P2 Nohistoricalpathcloses349.01gap;notproofimpossible,nottailbound. Twelveopportunitiesspanroughlyoneyear,not12days. P3 Dailyexitfrequencytarget31.161972%,stop56.161972%,partial39.436620%. Additional20000monthresamplesseed910062targetfractionP05/P50/P95[0,.25,.875],stop[0,.625,1],preserves8ETFjointoutcomes. P4 ActualquarterKelly0underfixednegativeexpectancy;sampledpositivewidercellpointKellydoesnotpassconfidence/executiongates. Nominalaccount1%risk8.5099/fundcap187.22/account25%212.7475;noapprovednotional. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all ; https://business.purdue.edu/faculty/mcconnell/publications/Equity-Returns-at-the-Turn-of-the-Month.pdf .

P1 Sample20000overlappinghistorical21-sessionportfolio-returnwindowsfromfrozen2020–25dailyclosepaths,seed91004; preserveswithin-windowserialandcross-pairdependence. TheseareMonteCarlosamplesoflimitedrealizedhistory, not20000independentmarketepisodes,nottailbounds,and21tradingsessionsislongerthan21remainingcalendardays. P2 Full187.22hypothetical12sleevebase-swingterminalp05/p50/p95=-1.56858/-.12978/+1.07686USD;lossprob58.38%. Stress=-1.92770/-.38730/+.77307USD;lossprob70.49%,5thpercentilepathDD-1.22515%. No sampledpathcloses349.01USDgap,butzerohistoricalhitsisnotproofimpossible. P3 AllactualKellyallocations0; simulationsdescribehypotheticalfullsleeve,rejectedstrategyandfractionaldiversification,notrecommendedpositions. Requiredgap349.01/187.22=186.42%approximately,whilebasefulltestannualrate-1.29128%. Conclusion deadlinecannotjustifyincreasingnegativeexpectancyallocation. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all .

P1 Simulate20000 single monthly opportunities by drawing one of72 realized2020–25monthly swing-portfolio returns (NumPyseed91002), scaled to187.22USD. Loss probability55.49%; PnL2.5/50/97.5percentiles[-1.4831,-0.0300,0.9751]USD. Mean historical monthly portfolio return-0.05016%. P2 This is an empirical scenario distribution with correlated assets retained within each month, not a calibrated forecast or tail-loss bound. Only72months, current-survivor universe and unobservedexecutionregimes remain. P3 Actual allocation0 from negative netedge and clippedquarterKelly0; no amount of repetition cures negative expectation. P4 At5.7224% annualized, even the monthly parent's full187.22USD sleeve corresponds to about10.71USD peryear beforefund-levelcosts under a stationary-rate assumption. Neither model establishes349.01USD in22days; nextscheduled monthly entryOct1 cannotbe relabeledan overnightopportunity. Counterexample: a new independently validated event rule could have different frequency; none calibratedthisrun. Source recordedmonthly/swingbacktests and https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .

P1 NumPy empirical9trade dailygreen holdout,187.22USD fullsleeve and20draws: IIDseed91000 lossprob2.06%,PnL2.5/50/97.5percentiles2.58/88.22/201.22. P2 Seed910002 Dirichlet(1) eventweights perpath then20draws raiseslossprob11.82%,PnL[-41.58,93.33,283.58]; posteriorweightedmean95%[-.70845,4.31904]% and7.245%nonpositive. This models only an assumed uncertainty mechanism, not actual calibratedprobabilities orunseenregimetailrisk. P3 Historical9signals/5years=1.8/year, so20opportunitiesroughly11.11years, not20days; cannotapplysimulationto22dayfundingwindow. P4 Fifteen-minute losers realize1.2224/1.1649/1.1003R price lossesbeforecosts, so8.2041USD referenceADR canimply10.0289USD observed-stressrisk foroneshare, beyond8.5099USDaccount1%limit; notworstpossiblegap bound. Conclusion no live size; binarypayoffratioquarterKellypointestimates arediagnostics, notvalidatedcashweights. Facts endat historicalsample; stationarity/samplingmodel areassumptions. Source observation18843 and analyses1851/1873; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .

P1 NumPyseed9091230,20000IIDpaths20draws from actual3returns at187.22USD reproduces prior1772 PnL2.5/50/97.5[-93.669315,-30.013809,79.173517],loss81.26%. P2 Operator-censoredN3 and unsupported stationarity mean this is a sensitivity illustration, not forecast, independent evidence or15minute stop-exit odds. P3 Frozenholdout mean-.094356461% implies-.176654USD per fullfund deployment, excludes fixed costs. Conclusion actual proposednotional0; freshsimulation cannot manufactureedge. Source observation18615/query_trades fund=quant and original1642 https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .

P1 20000NumPyIIDpaths20drawsfrom3realizedreturns,seed9091230,187.22USD producesPnLpercentiles[-93.669315,-30.013809,79.173517],loss81.26%. P2 Sameinputs reproduceprior1759, notindependentvalidation. Operatorcensoring/N3 invalidate predictive interpretation and cannotestimate15minstop-exitodds. P3 Negativeholdoutmean implies-.176654USD perfullfunddeployment. ConclusionquarterKelly0; actualproposedrisk0. Sourcesquery_trades fund=quant, analysis1642, collector/simulationobservation.

P1 NumPyseed9091230 20000paths20IIDdrawsfromactual3closedreturnfractions reproduces1740/1706;hypothetical187.22USD PnL2.5/50/97.5[-93.669315,-30.013809,79.173517],loss81.26%. P2 IID/stationarityunsupported,censoredoperatorliquidations; resampling3cannotmanufactureclinicalstockedge. P3 Holdoutmean-.09435646% implies-.176654USD per187.22deployment; grossrepeatabilitynotestablished. Conclusionnotforecastorstop-exitodds; allocation0 becausequarterKelly0. Riskcap8.5099 andfund187.22 arehardconstraints iffutureedgepasses. Obs18550 and simulationobservation; sourcequery_trades fund=quant; savedquant1630/stats.json.

1 Re-run1706NumPyseed9091230 with actualthreeclosedreturnfractions[-.0539236448052,.0793994130743,-.0513049904703],20000paths20IIDdraws,compoundhypothetical187.22USD. P&L2.5/50/97.5pct[-93.669315,-30.013809,79.173517];loss81.26%. Reproducesoldresult,notnewtest. 2 IID/stationarity/executionunsupportedN3operatorliquidations. Resampling cannotgenerate missing independentinformation; donotinterpret81.26%asclinicaltradelossprobability. 3 ObservedquarterKelly0proposedUSD0; noassumed stop/targetorMonteCarloexitoddswithoutqualifiedrule. Hardconstraintsfund187.22,accountcap212.7475,risk8.5099 furtherlimit anyfuturepositiveedge. Source query_trades fund=quant IDs9/7/1; observations18528; prior1706. Validillustrationconditionalonexplicitunsupportedassumptions; cannotjustifyrisk.

Premises:1.Use actual3closedtradepercentageoutcomesfromquery_tradesquantIDs9/7/1; uniformlysample20tradeswithreplacementin20000NumPypaths,seed9091230,compoundhypotheticalfull187.22USD. 2.ResultP&L2.5/50/97.5percentiles[-93.6693,-30.0138,79.1735],loss81.26%. 3.N3alloperatorliquidations makesstationarity/iid/executability unsupported; noresamplingcreatesmissingoutcomes,feesunknownandtradeopportunitiesnotdaily. Thusillustrationcannotpriceclinicaldriftorjustifyrisk; quarterKellyonoriginalmeanpayoffs0andproposednotional0. Correcttodayfundcap187.22 differsprevious245.69cashnote and212.7475accountpositioncap. Noadditionalrisktofund349.01shortfall. Source query_trades fund=quant, observation18398; reproducible core numpy.default_rng(9091230).choice([-0.0539236448052,0.0793994130743,-0.0513049904703],(20000,20)); PnL=(prod(1+r,axis=1)-1)*187.22.

Premises:1.EEM252costedholdouttrades p=.4563492,averagecashwin.490802%,averagecashloss.585548%; quarterKelly=max(0,.25*(p−(1−p)*loss/win))=0. 2.NumPyseed90908,20000paths of20sessions, four5-sessionmovingblocks sampledfrom1255holdoutdailycashreturns includingidle days; fullhypothetical212.7475USDinitialexposure compounding, not actualfundallocation. Base20sessionP&L2.5/50/97.5quantiles[−7.09363,−.67701,+4.76108]USD,loss60.355%,95thDD3.07343%; stress[−9.91765,−2.17125,+3.31380],loss78.31%,95thDD4.13089%. No simulatedpathreaches349.01USD; finitebootstrapnotimpossibility. ExpectedoneentrycapP&L−.200741USD;50.4historicaltrades/year, notdailyguaranteedopportunities. 3.PDT/wholelots/15minpolling excludedandmayworsenoutcome; no liveexitoddsclaimed. Conclusionzeroallocationdespitefundinggap. Stop30/252,target13/252,time209/252 aredailybaroutcomes, notvenueexecutionfrequencies. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=SPY,QQQ,IWM,EEM,EFA,EWJ,EWZ,FXI&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all; figures18316–18319; reproduciblecodearchived.

Premise1 OEF managedholdoutp=.3833333, averagewin1.45051385%, averageloss1.26921956%; quarterKelly=max(0,.25*(p−(1−p)*loss/win))=0. P2 NumPyseed90906 samples20 historical three-month blocks withreplacement,4blocks/path,20,000paths across12monthly windows, retaining contemporaneousOEF/SPY/IWM vectors. Hypothetical212.7475USD OEF exposure has yearprofit2.5/50/97.5percentiles[−27.782671,−5.728007,+17.417338]USD; lossfrequency68.615%;95th maximumdrawdown12.47927%. One expirationwindowmeanprofit−.482203USD. None of20,000paths reaches349.01USD; finite bootstrap result not impossibility. P3 observed60eventexitcounts stop25+gapstop6,target12+gaptarget7,time10:51.667%stop,31.667%target,16.667%time. These are modeled historical frequencies, not calibrated live15min exit odds. Future tails, varying spreads and regimechanges may be worse; fixedsystemcosts excluded and cashinterest0. Bindingconstraint edge, not capital. Actualallocation0; quarterKelly fraction is a capital allocation convention, not an empirical optimal cash fraction from this small sample. Data source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=OEF,SPY,IWM&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all ; https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378426613003051 .

Baselinefixedmanagedholdout p=.4307228916, averagewin1.45484631%, averageloss1.32374598%; quarterKelly=max(0,.25*(p-(1-p)*loss/win))=0. Stressalso0. Numpyseed90904 samples83monthlyfour-assetvectors jointly,20000paths x12months, compoundingindependentinitiallyequalsleeves; withinmonthassetreturncorrelations .52669–.80692. Hypothetical245.69USDfullresearchportfolio annualprofit2.5/50/97.5percentiles[-24.87985,-3.89916,19.27193]USD; lossfrequency63.785%. Zeroof20000pathsreach349.01USD, afiniteempiricalresultnotimpossibility. Onecalendarwindowmeanprofit-.311885USD,2.5/50/97.5percentiles[-4.68193,-1.08460,6.39000]. Fixedcostsexcluded, noforecastcashinterest; futuretailsmaybeworse, stationarityandindependentmonths assumed. Thisfractional4sleeveexperimentdoesnotmeetcurrentwhole-lotconstraintsandisnotallocation. AtmostonewindowremainsinSeptemberafterSep9; cannotturnmonthlyfrequencyinto dailyincome. Stopgapexits34of332; worsttrade-6.75243%showsnominalstopnotguaranteedriskbound. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; finish_stats.py and frozenstudy.py.

1. Startaccount850.99/quant245.69cash; no positions. Goalrepeatablepositiveprofit;bindingconstraintnegativevalidatedpayoff. Fromfrozen301trademanagedhistory,samplejointportfolioreturns,not independentstocks. 2. Seed9090201,20000circular3-sessionblockpaths,16sessions approximatingremainingSep9–30tradingwindow,entire245.69quantbooksupposedlydeployed into8equalinitialfractionalsleeves. Base5/50/95profitUSD[-1.87048,0,1.11598],lossfrequency49.8%;stress[-2.30212,-.17552,.81874],loss58.445%. No samplemakes349.01USD;this isnotprooftruelikelihoodzero. Flatdays in historicalstrategyexplainmedian0;no missingreturns convertedtozero. 3. Longerdiagnosticseed9090200,20000joint3monthblockpaths60months,quant/accountconstantweight. Baseaccount5/50/95return[-3.15198,-1.89739,-.64159]%,loss99.325%;stress[-5.27339,-3.97671,-2.67820]%,loss100%infiniteMonteCarlosample only. Correction:actual horizon60months,not100months originallycontemplated. Excludesfixedoperatingcosts,newregimes,wholelots,15minfillgaps andfuturecashrate. Resamplingassumesstationarity;shortblocksdo notpreservemonthlyentrycalendar; hypotheticalfreshschedule isnotanapprovedlateentry. 4. QuarterKellybinary-average-loss approximationfloors0 inbaseandstress;notional0. Caps212.7475/position and8.5099nominalrisk limitlossplans,notguaranteedgaploss. Neither need349.01 nor parentpositivereturnsuppliesapprovededge. Sources archivedhorizon_sim.py/json anddiagnostics; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .

Start equity850.99/quantcash245.69; goalrepeatablenetprofit;bindingconstraintedgeuncertainty. Premises1.Use219completedfixedrule2021–25returns,base6bp/sideandstress16bp/side.2.NumPyseed9090000,20000paths,100sequentialtrades,circular5tradeblocks; eachtrade hypotheticallyinvests25%ofevolvingaccountequity.3.Base terminal5/50/95percentiles-5.54344/+1.53083/+9.92274%,lossprob36.68%,10%DDprob.85%,95thDD7.78848%.Stress-10.13895/-3.41932/+4.55102%,lossprob77.075%,10%DDprob11.14%,95thDD11.33923%.Conclusion simulated upside is not robust to10bp extraslippageeachside. No100tradesin23daysclaim;~219trades/5years horizon differs runwaywindow. Sampling assumes pastblockdistributionrepeats; doesnotmodelnewcrashes,15minexitovershoot,wholelotrounding,fixed205monthlycost orcensoredmissingfills. Scenario25%notional is NOT approvedrisk and doesnotguarantee1%losslimit. Binarypayoff normalized-loss quarterKelly formula.25*(p-(1-p)/(W/L))=.01145882base,stressfloored0;thisquantity is fractionat risk in average-loss units,not automaticallypositionnotional. FullvariablepayoffKelly/unboundedtailriskswouldneedseparatemodel. Adoptedsize0becauseCIincludes0andstressnegative; hardpositioncap212.7475 andnominalrisk8.5099arecaps,not sizingrecommendations. Counterexample costcouldactuallyremain6bp,butunknownexecutioncannotbeassumedfromdailyliquidity; operatorneed349.01 changesno probability. Source observation16076,backtestsQTR9090000; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .

Premises:1.Netmanagedholdoutp.47457627,W1.760979%,L2.269039% yieldsnegativeKellybeforefloor, quarterKelly0. Requiredsize0, notfractionofpublishedalpha.2.Numpyseed90808,20000circular20sessionreturnblocks,25% hypotheticaldailymaintainedequitysleeve,850.99initial:basePnLmean-.741857USD,p5/50/95[-6.535698,-.730804,7.415420],loss51.27%,intraperiod8.5099loss2.13%;stressmean-1.309079,p5/50/95[-7.162784,-.857535,6.764915],loss52.93%,riskhit2.36%. Bothsampledzero349.01gain,nottruezerofutureprobability.3.Parentmean+1.670102,p5-16.967808,p95+20.820203,loss39.48%,riskhit32.795%;illustratesriskomittedbypositiveparentreturn.4.Historicalconditionalpaths ignoreoverheadandquotephase, notactualwhole-shareorders; dailyrebalanced25%sleeveisdiagnostic, noorders. Riskcap8.5099accountUSD,notfund1%;fund245.69/position212.7475. Actualrisk0. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; archiveddiag.py anddiagnostics.json.

Supersedes15minMonteCarlo/bootstrapportionofanalysis1108;weightedpayoffsandallbacktesttradefiguresunchanged. SparsearchivecomparisonfoundUTCresamplingcreatedsomeSaturdaycashdatesfromFridayevening. Correctstudy15.py groupsendofdayequitybyNewYorksessiondate:505trainingdays,1255holdout,170recent. Full121592barpaneland20586barsparsearchiveEXACTall6resultmetrics,dailydate/returnarraysandtradeledgers(exceptinputrowcount). Numpyseed15090806;20k circular20sessionholdoutblocks,25%hypotheticaldailymaintainedequitysleeve,850.99initial,overheadexcluded. BasePnLmean-.096519592USD,p5/50/95[-2.045575015,.187208073,1.514091561],loss43.765%;stressmean-.361913952,p5/50/95[-2.628822037,0,1.082598490],loss49.25%. Bothsampledzero>=349.01gainor>=8.5099intraperiodloss,notproofzerofutureprobability. 3monthblock20kbootstrapbase95%monthlymeanCI[-.173431825,.063907263]%,stress[-.306064286,-.058199962]%. Weightedholdoutp.566667,W.392950233%,L.625616533%,quarterKelly0;actualallocation0. EarlierdailybarMCin1108unaffected. Reproductionbase279partsplusmandatory9partpatch14979–14987:patch16864charsSHA256cdeea7c519be02ce4926bf0094c002945ad893cbd63d541125a6323e8ded44c8;exactreadbackverified. Overwritebasefileswithpatchbeforeuse. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; correctedstudy15.py/diag15.py. Theseareconditionalhistoricalpaths,notforwardoddsorexecutablefractionalafterhoursorders.

1.PrimarydailySPYholdoutunitp.516667,W1.052604%,L1.456698%,naiveKelly0. WeightedcashsleeveW.310779%,L.588356%,Kelly0. 15minunitp.566667,W1.216512%,L1.561158%givesnaivequarterKelly.264182%butweightedW.392950%,L.625617%,weightedmean-.048429%,quarterKelly0. Do notsizefromunitreturnswhileapplyingcorrelatedvolweights.2.Numpyseed15090806,20000circular20-sessionholdoutdailyreturnblocks,850.99initialcash,25%hypotheticalequitysleeve maintaineddaily. 15minbase20sessionPnLmean-.092760USD,p5/median/p95[-2.044991,.176275,1.514092],loss42.835%;stressmean-.348726,p5/median/p95[-2.628822,0,1.082598],loss48.25%. Neitherhadpath>=349.01gainor>=8.5099intraperiodloss; historicalsamplingzeroisnottruezeroeventprobability. Positive medianwithnegative meanreflectsasymmetry/cashdays,notpositiveedge.3.3monthblockbootstrap20k,holdout60months:15minmonthlymeanCI[-.168128,.062841]%base,[-.299049,-.058098]%stress. Allfiguresrecordeddiag15observations. Priorseed90806dailybarMCSPYmanagedp5/50/95[-1.965645,.026167,1.382739],47.815%loss; parent[-4.168095,.904753,6.113137],35.855%loss;EFA/EEMsameprotocolrecordeddiagnostics.4.Theseareconditionalresamplingdistributions,notindependentfutureprobabilities; ignorefixedoverheadandquoteexecution, fractionalrebalancedcapdiagnosticnotrealtrade. Equity850.99,quant245.69,position212.7475,normalrisk8.5099;actualallocation0. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; diagnostics.py/diag15.py/weighted.py.

1. Primarymanagedholdoutp=.48148148,W1.700601%,L2.068431%;quarterKelly=max(0,.25*(p-(1-p)/(W/L)))=0. USintradaymanagedalso0. Parentbaseline naivequarterKelly2.075070%butcoststressnegative,meanCIspans0andnoactualstop/targetvalidation,soactual0.2. Numpyseed90804,20000resamplesofcontiguous4calendarweeksfrom261holdoutweeklyreturns,circularwrap,25%hypotheticalaccountallocation eachweek,initial850.99. Primarymanaged4weekPnL5/50/95percentiles[-14.280032,-1.930133,10.879991]USD,lossfrequency58.595%;intradaymanaged[-15.629881,-2.296366,9.996975],61.1%. Parent[-14.160696,-.023203,18.994337],50.745%. Thesearehistoricalblock-resamplingfrequencies,notcalibratedforwardprobabilities;weeklyresetweights/fractionalassumptionmaydifferfromactualaccount,overheadexcluded.3. No sampledpathreaches349.01USDaccountgap;thisisnotproofzeroactualprobabilityandcannotjustifyanincomeprojection. Quantbook245.69,venuepositioncap212.7475,normalrisk8.5099. EWGfoursharesfitsarithmetic,notedgegate.4. ThreeownclosedtradesarePEADandoperatorliquidated,notindependentreversaltrials;33.33%win,7.93994%averagewin,5.26143%averagelossprovidesnooverride. Noarrivalquotesorintendedexitsamplesforslippage/stop-hitprobabilities.5. Main36managedholdoutvariantsnegativeeven12zero-cost;thereforeinsufficientedgeisnotmerelyourchosenfeeestimate. Real15min,overnightgaps,whole-sharepartialmanagement andfuturedistributionstillunknown. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; query_tradesfundquant04:01UTC ; diagnosticsarchived310parts.

1. Numpyseed90803,20000IIDpaths resampling12of60historicalmonthlycohorts (cashmonths included) for managed10sessionswing. Hypothetical25%accountequityallocation peractivecohort,starting850.99; costsincludedinbacktestedreturns, overheadexcluded. SPLV12monthPnL5/50/95percentiles[-16.01794,-5.93852,3.58745]USD,lossfrequency84.3%;USMV[-15.79918,-5.95456,3.46558],84.38%;EFAV[-13.29565,-4.89684,3.25648],83.79%;EEMV[-11.40686,-2.62956,5.53836],69.21%. These are empirical resampling frequencies,notforecastprobabilities or24dayprojections. IID pathsomitfuturechanges,whole-share/PDTconstraints and15minfills.2.Holdoutp/W/L managedSPLV50%/.529017%/1.197975%;USMV45.4545%/.590174%/1.088297%;EFAV48.7179%/.528470%/1.075475%;EEMV55.5556%/.568667%/1.110473%. QuarterKelly max(0,.25*(p-(1-p)/(W/L)))=0forall. Positive2026EEMVp71.4286%,W.967954%,L1.846262% impliesnaive4.233%fraction, butN7andfailedtraining/holdoutrequireactual0.3.Own3operatorliquidationstradeshave33.33%winrate,avgwin7.93994%,avgloss5.26143%,quarterKelly0; censoringprecludesstrategyexitcalibration. Account349.01hurdle=41.01223%of850.99,uniformrequired24daygrowth1.442287%daily; this is requiredreturn,notedge.4.Cap212.7475 andrisk8.5099 cannottransformnegativeexpectedpayoff. Current2shareETFcapacity permits arithmetic, notallocation. Conclusionallactualsizes0;do notscalea12monthsimulationintoamonth-endincomepledge. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; diagnostics.py archived478parts;query_tradesfundquant.