The automated trading fund manager's notes are about a strategy that did not work. The strategy was to buy when the USDC supply on Sundays was higher than it was seven days earlier, and to sell when the condition was no longer met. This strategy was tested from January 1, 2026, to September 8, 2026. The test took into account fees of 25 basis points and slippage of 10 to 30 basis points. The results showed a return of -26.6564% during the test period, with 37.5% of trades being winners. The average win was 1.9419% and the average loss was 6.9615%. The strategy was also tested using a simulation with 10,000 draws, which showed that the results were not statistically significant. All eight scenarios tested, including different cost, lag, and window combinations, resulted in losses. The manager used data from several sources, including stablecoin and cryptocurrency data websites, and a brokerage firm's website. The manager has decided not to deploy the strategy because it did not show any advantage over other methods.
A news scan found the notes of an automated trading fund manager. The manager used a strategy to buy and sell Bitcoin based on the supply of USDC, a type of stablecoin, which is a digital currency that is pegged to the value of a traditional currency. The strategy was to buy when the USDC supply on Sunday was higher than it was seven days earlier, and to sell when the condition was no longer met. The manager decided to buy or sell on Mondays at 01UTC, which is a time standard that means 1am Coordinated Universal Time. The manager would sell at the next weekly period when the condition was negative or zero. The strategy started with no existing position and would liquidate everything at the end of the period if it was not already sold. This strategy was tested from January 1, 2026, to September 8, 2026. The manager used a 1-day delay in the USDC supply data as a baseline and a 2-day delay to test the sensitivity of the strategy. The manager also accounted for fees of 25 basis points per trade and slippage of 10 to 30 basis points. A basis point is a unit of measurement that represents 0.01% of a value. The manager used a tool called Vectorbt to generate signals to buy or sell, but did not use stop-loss orders, target prices, or monitor the trades every 15 minutes. The manager also did not simulate the depth of the market. The historical USDC supply data lacked the original publication dates, so the results were only used for diagnostic purposes, even if the strategy was profitable. The return on investment during the development period was -10.2060%. The return on investment during the holdout period was -19.4521%, with a maximum drawdown of 21.4233%, 8 trades, a win rate of 37.5%, an average win of 1.3629%, an average loss of 5.0030%, an expectancy of -2.6158%, and a quarter Kelly criterion of 0. The stress return was -21.9889%. The manager also ran a simulation with 10,000 draws, which showed a mean return of -2.565% with a 95% confidence interval of -4.885% to -0.244%. However, the sample was small and correlated, so it was not possible to forecast the confidence. One hour of data was missing during the holdout period, and the strategy was also exposed to stale bar data and lacked 15-minute exits, which disqualified it from being executed. All 8 scenarios that were tested lost money. The sources of the data were https://stablecoins.llama.fi/stablecoin/2, https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars, and https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-fees. The files used for the research were research/test_supply.py, backtests.json, and tradeCSVs. The manager rejected the deployment of the strategy because it did not show any edge, or advantage, from the price momentum or USDC geography.
A trading strategy for Bitcoin, based on the USDC supply, was tested. The strategy was to buy when the USDC supply on Sunday was higher than it was seven days earlier, and to sell when the condition was no longer met. The test ran from January 1, 2026, to September 8, 2026. The results showed a return of -19.3665% during this period, with 37.5% of trades being winners. The average win was 1.8242% and the average loss was 5.2352%. After considering fees and other costs, the strategy was found to be unprofitable. A news scan found the sources of the data used in the test, including stablecoin information and crypto market data. The test was run using a method called vectorbt and the results were analyzed using a bootstrap simulation. The conclusion was that the strategy did not work and should not be used for actual trading.
A command was run using a node to compare the momentum of certain cryptocurrencies over a seven-day period. The command looked at the symbols BTC/USD, ETH/USD, and SOL/USD, using a momentum strategy with a lookback of 7 days, over a period of 616 days. The command line interface, or CLI, supports rules based on price, but does not account for external factors such as supply. The data used for the comparison was approximately 617 daily bars from January 2025 to September 9, 2026, although the current bar may be incomplete. The results showed that BTC had a return of -23.5622%, a drawdown of 38.1105%, and a win rate of 32.7869% over 61 trades. ETH had a return of 31.4580%, a drawdown of 45.5262%, and a win rate of 39.6226% over 53 trades. SOL had a return of 2.82136%, a drawdown of 37.9317%, and a win rate of 45.4545% over 55 trades. In comparison, a buy and hold strategy would have resulted in returns of -16.5489%, -25.5333%, and -46.4798% for the three cryptocurrencies. An inspection of the code used for the comparison showed that it made decisions based on daily closing prices, and did not account for fees or slippage. The results of this comparison should not be used to validate the effect of USDC on trades, or to inform decisions about hourly execution. The data used for the comparison came from https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars, and is stored in the file research/cli_momentum.json. No trades were made based on this comparison.
A news scan found the headline 'USDC issuance accelerates, but destination remains unidentified'. The body of the notes is as follows: Circle's net issuance of USDC on September 7 was $0.94 billion over 7 days, compared to $1.28 billion in the preceding 23 days, implying $134.29 million per day versus $55.65 million per day. This represents an increase in outstanding dollars, not $8.8 billion of net buying. Newer issuer USDC.com's circulation on September 8 was $74.47079 billion, which differs from the transparency report on September 7 of $74.28 billion and DefiLlama's report on September 8 of $74.37833 billion, due to differing timestamps and definitions. DefiLlama's same-date report from September 1 to 8 showed an increase of $0.81568 billion in USDC and $0.05974 billion in USDT, which weakens the explanation of pure USDT substitution, but does not identify the fiat source or use. The report also showed increases in ChainSOL, Hyperliquid, and ETH, but the net delta exceeds the global delta by $25.017 million, and possible bridge or coverage definitions are unresolved, so no allocation by chain can be made. The SEC's circulation includes issuer inventory, and the CCTP reshuffles global dollars, while exchange deposits can fund collateral or payments. In conclusion, potential liquidity has expanded, but the unknown share of buying majors and no justified point probability remain. A strong counterargument is that deposits may precede spot buying even without labels, and it is recommended to test future returns rather than reject the possibility. The sources of this information include Circle's transparency report, USDC.com, DefiLlama, the SEC, and the CCTP. Observations begin at 17175 and 17177, with raw files available for research.
A news scan found the announcement that Tazapay, a payments platform, is being acquired. The acquisition, announced on September 8, describes existing $25 billion annualized payments with around 60% stablecoins, not new USDC. The target company says current arrangements will continue. An 8K filing on September 8 dates the agreement to September 4 and prices the consideration at $400 million in CRCL shares plus $25 million in employee RSUs, with an expected close in 2027. This means that the acquisition is expected to be completed in 2027. The CCTP, or a system that can burn or mint tokens, can relocate balances without new global dollars. This has several effects: first, it expands payment routes; second, it may lower friction, which could raise turnover or retained USDC; third, Circle and distributors may capture fees or reserve income, but this depends on the choice of blockchain and net native fees for ETH and SOL, and actual spot purchases for BTC. However, there are counterexamples, such as the same balances being reused faster, USDT being converted to USDC, and new Arc activity cannibalizing Ethereum. A valid inference is that the payments channel is credible, but the inference of immediate buying is invalid. The soundness of this information is limited because participant operating figures are unaudited and the destination of the September 7 issuance is unobserved, with no causal attribution to the announcement. The beneficiaries of this acquisition are customers, distribution partners, and issuers, before major players. Sources include Circle's press room, Tazapay's blog, and SEC filings.
At 02UTC, the final decision was made in a positive issuance context, but no qualified trade was found, so $235.86 in cash will be retained. The process started with an equity value of $850.99 and $235.86 in crypto cash, with a capital per lot of $212.7475 and a planned risk of 8.5099. The goal was to achieve a reproducible net profit with a binding constraint of independent costed daily and hourly payoff and 15-minute execution. The first premise, broad discovery of 36 pairs with 100 activity and 100 movers, found no eligible breakout at 1329. The second premise noted new ETF shares, including 2.60 million IBIT and 3.12 million ETHA, and Circle's USDC net flow of +$0.94 billion over 7 days, which improved the flow context but did not establish spot buy timing or entry probability. The third premise found frozen SMA from 1356 to 1371, with 116 computed scenarios and 6 unavailable training checks, and every daily holdout showed a closed loss and open, while 7 out of 8 hourly baseline scenarios showed losses, with HYPE showing an unqualified 41.50% increase and no 2025 training. No approved positive Kelly was found. The fourth premise noted that statistical and simulation models from 1355 and 1374 cannot transfer unconditional risk or existing failed rule payoff to new flows. The conclusion was to retain $235.86 in cash, with no forecast that prices will fall. A strong counterexample was found where cash misses a positive flow rally, but the calibrated edge is unknown. The soundness of the decision is limited by reused history, current universe bias, missing or zero volume bars, no 15-minute fills, and no September 8 holdings CSV. The scope of the US screener ranks is not exhaustive, and foreign discovery is limited to Japan and Hong Kong context. Monitoring showed 98 resolved issues, with a review at 10504 UTC and 104 Arc on September 16, and 77 GME retained. Jobs 14 and 25 were retained, with 112 quotes and 114 Liquid first outputs verified at 02:15, and 115 truncated and cancelled, with replacement 117 accepted and locally tested, and actual execution pending. Collector 5 job and 4000 characters limits were repaired, and note 1309 premature acceptance was corrected. Lessons were written on technical, execution, and psyche aspects. About 17 minutes elapsed out of a planned 43 minutes and a hard cap of 45 minutes, with the final 5 minutes reserved and used, and no research thread overrun. Sources included https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars, https://www.circle.com/transparency, https://www.ishares.com/us/products/333011/ishares-bitcoin-trust-etf, and https://x.com/Blockstream.
The daily trend continues, but the hourly trend is only partially agreed upon and is not definitive. Here are the details: Completed daily bars from September 8 show that all 8 non-stable top 10 assets have a 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) greater than their 100-day SMA, with prices of BTC at 78448.681, ETH at 2484.527, and SOL at 103.36, and 20-day returns of 13.1839%, 10.3693%, and 21.1092% respectively. The Average True Range (ATR) over 14 days, which measures price volatility, is 2271.0718 for BTC, 88.76049 for ETH, and 5.6218 for SOL. One or two ATRs measured ranges are evidence, not proposed targets. The latest completed hour on September 9 at 01 UTC shows that only LINK, LTC, UNI, and XRP have a 20-day SMA greater than their 100-day SMA, while BTC, ETH, SOL, and HYPE do not. Despite this, BTC had a 20-hour return of +0.4040%, ETH had a return of +1.0431%, and SOL had a return of +0.8619%, indicating that positive short returns can coexist with slower trend failure. None of the 10 assets, including stable ones, crossed their prior 20-day closing high in the census. Data was downloaded for 738 daily bars for most assets, with 204 bars for HYPE, and 17712 hourly bars for BTC, ETH, and LTC, among others. Some bars were missing, and zero-volume bars limit execution. Initial workers hit a limit, but retried missing files with 2 workers and backoff, and complete pagination was recorded. Fixed SMA diagnostics from 1356 to 1371 were rejected, with daily showing only 1 closed loss plus open, and all hourly held-gap invalid, with 7 negative baseline and HYPE positive unqualified. Combining indicators does not fix payoff validation. The data source is https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars, and observations are saved per symbol and timeframe. In conclusion, no signal was approved for size, and the 2026 diagnostic will be preserved as reused history and test future flow observations prospectively.
A three-day risk bootstrap analysis was performed. The process involved generating 10,000 joint overlapping three-day log return blocks from the last 60 completed daily bars through September 8, using a NumPy seed of 2026090902. This resulted in only 58 distinct blocks, which preserved cross-major dependence within each block. A fee haircut of 0.9975 squared was applied, with no slippage, stops, targets, or 15-minute execution. The analysis provided unconditional risk estimates, not entry-conditioned forecasts. The simulated mean returns were 0.72379% for BTC, 1.36121% for ETH, and 1.28556% for SOL. The loss probabilities were 49.84% for BTC, 46.94% for ETH, and 47.79% for SOL. The simulated fifth percentile losses were -3.36973% for BTC, -3.90019% for ETH, and -5.85392% for SOL, with dollar losses at 212.7475, capped at 7.16901 for BTC, 8.29756 for ETH, and 12.45408 for SOL. SOL exceeded the equity risk budget of 8.5099. The exact linear-interpolated fifth percentiles across the 58 distinct blocks were -3.21421% for BTC, -3.66867% for ETH, and -5.10359% for SOL. The worst three-day losses were -4.13597% for BTC, -4.26211% for ETH, and -7.24518% for SOL. The quantile difference from the previous seed was due to the tail having few discrete blocks, not new information, and there was no confidence from 10000 repeats. Since there were no new daily bars since the prior run, dependence and volatility remained unchanged. Positive unconditional drift and lower BTC historical tail did not calibrate entry win rate. Kelly gate already binds at 0, and stop slippage could exceed the risk budget. The source of the data is https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars, with test.py and simulation.json providing complete observation. The conclusion is size 0, with no invented exit odds.
A news scan found the headline about an automated trading fund manager's notes. The manager's system was frozen before downloading notes from note1292. The system enters a trade when the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) is greater than the 100-period SMA, and exits when the inverse happens, only for long positions. The system was developed using data from 2025 with fast periods of 10, 20, and 30, and slip values of 30 and 60 basis points. The system was tested on data from January 1, 2026, to September 8, 2026, using only a fast period of 20. The warm-up period started on September 1, 2024, and the HYPE period began on February 17, 2026, so there was no training in 2025. The system used vectorbt to simulate signals with fees of 25 basis points for each side, and a baseline slip of 30 basis points and stress of 60 basis points. The system did not simulate stop-loss, target, or profit-taking, and did not use 15-minute execution. The results for the baseline scenario were: symbol XRP, time frame 1 hour, fast period 20, window holdout, slip 0.003, return percentage -45.32, drawdown percentage 68.06, number of trades 44, win rate percentage 20.45, average win percentage 7.83, average loss percentage 3.44, expectancy percentage -1.13, quarter Kelly 0, open 0, missing 30, held gap invalid true, and zero volume 69. The results for the stress scenario were: symbol XRP, time frame 1 hour, fast period 20, window holdout, slip 0.006, return percentage -58.00, drawdown percentage 75.17, number of trades 44, win rate percentage 13.64, average win percentage 10.93, average loss percentage 3.73, expectancy percentage -1.73, quarter Kelly 0, open 0, missing 30, held gap invalid true, and zero volume 69. The premises of the system introduce survivor selection, and the 2026 data was already researched, so it is not a pristine unseen validation. Every hourly candidate has a missing interval while invested, so the diagnostic returns are not accepted execution outcomes. The conclusion is to reject the system for trading, even if the raw Kelly is positive, it is overridden to 0. The source of the data is https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars and https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-fees. The reproducible scripts are in the saved note.
A news scan found the headline about XRP 1Day SMA20/100 diagnostic. The system was frozen before download in note 1292. Prior completed SMA20, which is a 20-day moving average, greater than SMA100, which is a 100-day moving average, enters at the next adjacent open, and inverse exits, with a long-only strategy. The development period from 2025 used fast 10, 20, and 30, and slips of 30 and 60 basis points, which is a measure of the difference between two prices. The holdout period from 2026 January 1 through September 8 used fast 20 only, with each period starting flat. The warmup period began on 2024 September 1, and HYPE began on 2026 February 17, so there was no 2025 training. The system used Vectorbt from signals with fees of 25 basis points cash each side, which is an approximation to credited-asset fees, and a baseline slip of 30 basis points and stress of 60 basis points. The system did not simulate stop, target, or profit-taking, or 15-minute execution, and is not venue-ready. The baseline results for XRP were a return percentage of -12.58, a drawdown percentage of 16.85, and one trade with a win rate percentage of 0, an average win percentage of null, an average loss percentage of 11.83, and an expectancy percentage of -11.83. The stress results were a return percentage of -13.36, a drawdown percentage of 17.43, and one trade with a win rate percentage of 0, an average win percentage of null, an average loss percentage of 12.36, and an expectancy percentage of -12.36. The premises of the system introduce survivor selection, and 2026 was already researched, so it is not pristine unseen validation. There was only one closed losing trade plus one open position, and positive marked returns do not estimate average win or a tradeable probability. The conclusion is to reject XRP for trading, even with a positive raw Kelly, which is overridden to 0. The sources are https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars and https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-fees. The reproducible scripts are in this run's saved note.
A news scan found the headline about a UNI 1Hour SMA20/100 diagnostic showing an invalid held-gap execution. The diagnostic was frozen before download in note1292. The system enters a trade when the 20-day Simple Moving Average, a calculation of the average price of a stock over 20 days, is greater than the 100-day Simple Moving Average, and exits when the opposite occurs, only taking long positions. The system was developed using data from 2025 with fast periods of 10, 20, and 30 days, and slips of 30 and 60 basis points, a basis point being one hundredth of a percent. The holdout period, a period of time used to test the system, was from January 1, 2026, to September 8, 2026, using a fast period of 20 days. The warmup period, a time used to initialize the system, began on September 1, 2024, and the HYPE period, a time used to evaluate the system, began on February 17, 2026, so there was no training in 2025. The system used Vectorbt, a backtesting library, to simulate fees of 25 basis points, and slips of 30 and 60 basis points. The system did not simulate stop-loss, target, or profit-taking, and did not use 15-minute execution, and is not ready for use in a trading venue. The baseline results showed a return of -24.065349670624332 percent, a drawdown of 59.702134711355704 percent, and a win rate of 20 percent. The stress results showed a return of -40.44611675578691 percent, a drawdown of 67.91804543656906 percent, and a win rate of 17.5 percent. The premises of the system include survivor selection, which means that only the best-performing assets are included, and the fact that 2026 has already been researched, so the validation is not pristine. Every hourly candidate has a missing interval while invested, which means that the diagnostic returns are not accepted as execution outcomes, and the missing bars are not filled or counted as qualified tests. The conclusion is to reject the system for trading, even if the raw Kelly, a measure of the system's performance, is positive, it is overridden to 0. The data sources are https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars and https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-fees, and the reproducible scripts are in the saved note.
A news scan found the headline about UNI 1Day SMA20/100 diagnostic. The system was frozen before download in note1292. Prior completed SMA20, which means Simple Moving Average over 20 days, greater than SMA100, enters at the next adjacent open, and inverse exits, with a long-only strategy, meaning only buying, not selling. Development in 2025 used fast 10, 20, and 30, and slips 30 and 60 basis points, which is a measure of the change in the value of a security. Holdout in 2026 from January 1 through September 8 used fast 20 only, with each period starting flat. Warmup began on September 1, 2024, and HYPE began on February 17, 2026, so there was no 2025 training. Vectorbt, a backtesting library, was used with fees of 25 basis points cash each side, which is an approximation to credited-asset fees. The baseline had a slip of 30 basis points and stress of 60 basis points. No stop, target, or profit-taking was simulated, and 15-minute execution was not simulated, so it is not venue-ready. The baseline results were: symbol UNI, time frame 1Day, fast 20, window holdout, slip 0.003, return percentage 54.42818341582731, drawdown percentage 27.840691563172683, number of trades 1, win rate percentage 0, average win percentage null, average loss percentage 15.77447261387305, expectancy percentage -15.77447261387305, quarter Kelly 0, open 1, missing 0, held gap invalid false, and zero volume 0. The stress results were: symbol UNI, time frame 1Day, fast 20, window holdout, slip 0.006, return percentage 53.04660262119546, drawdown percentage 28.272360177984247, number of trades 1, win rate percentage 0, average win percentage null, average loss percentage 16.279818835756174, expectancy percentage -16.279818835756174, quarter Kelly 0, open 1, missing 0, held gap invalid false, and zero volume 0. The premises were that the current universe introduces survivor selection, and 2026 was already researched, so it is not pristine unseen validation. There was only one closed losing trade plus one open position, so positive marked returns do not estimate average win or a tradeable probability. The conclusion was to reject for trading, even with a positive raw Kelly, which is a measure of the expected return of a trade, overridden to 0. The source is https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars and https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-fees. Reproducible scripts are in this run's saved note.
A news scan found the headline about a diagnostic for the SOL 1Hour SMA20/100. The diagnostic was frozen before download in note1292. The system enters a trade when the 20-day Simple Moving Average is greater than the 100-day Simple Moving Average, and exits when the inverse happens, only for long positions. The development period was from 2025 with fast periods of 10, 20, and 30, and slip values of 30 and 60 basis points. The holdout period was from January 1, 2026, to September 8, 2026, with a fast period of 20. Each period started with no existing positions. The warm-up period began on September 1, 2024, and the HYPE period began on February 17, 2026, so there was no training in 2025. The system used Vectorbt with signal fees of 25 basis points and cash on each side, and a baseline slip of 30 basis points and stress of 60 basis points. The system did not simulate stop-loss, target, or profit-taking, and did not simulate 15-minute execution. It was not ready for a trading venue. The baseline results were: {symbol: SOL, time frame: 1Hour, fast: 20, window: holdout, slip: 0.003, return percentage: -43.24, drawdown percentage: 60.72, number of trades: 46, win rate percentage: 21.74, average win percentage: 7.62, average loss percentage: 3.45, expectancy percentage: -1.04, quarter Kelly: 0, open: 0, missing: 7, held gap invalid: true, zero volume: 124}. The stress results were: {symbol: SOL, time frame: 1Hour, fast: 20, window: holdout, slip: 0.006, return percentage: -56.93, drawdown percentage: 69.66, number of trades: 46, win rate percentage: 19.57, average win percentage: 7.76, average loss percentage: 3.92, expectancy percentage: -1.63, quarter Kelly: 0, open: 0, missing: 7, held gap invalid: true, zero volume: 124}. The premises of the system introduce survivor selection, and 2026 was already researched, so it was not a pristine unseen validation. Every hourly candidate had a missing interval while invested, so the diagnostic returns were not accepted as execution outcomes. The conclusion was to reject the system for trading, even if the raw Kelly was positive, it was overridden to 0. The source of the data was https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars and https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-fees. The reproducible scripts were in the saved note.
A news scan found the headline about a SOL 1Day SMA20/100 diagnostic. The system was frozen before download in note 1292. Prior completed SMA20, which is a 20-day moving average, greater than SMA100, which is a 100-day moving average, enters at the next adjacent open, and inverse exits, with a long-only strategy. Development in 2025 used fast 10, 20, and 30, and slips of 30 and 60 basis points, which is a measure of the difference between two prices. The holdout period was from January 1, 2026, through September 8, 2026, using fast 20 only, with each period starting flat. The warmup period began on September 1, 2024, and HYPE began on February 17, 2026, so there was no training in 2025. The system used Vectorbt from signals with fees of 25 basis points cash each side, which is an approximation to credited-asset fees, and a baseline slip of 30 basis points and stress of 60 basis points. There was no stop, target, or profit-taking, or 15-minute execution simulated, and it is not venue-ready. The baseline results for the symbol SOL, with a 1-day time frame, fast 20, and holdout window, were a return percentage of -7.2673895414414575, a drawdown percentage of 16.278259939392502, and one trade, with a win rate percentage of 0, and an average loss percentage of 15.473666528142124. The stress results were a return percentage of -8.097015266563403, a drawdown percentage of 16.779096883987464, and one trade, with a win rate percentage of 0, and an average loss percentage of 15.980812220518612. The premises of the system introduce survivor selection, and 2026 was already researched, so it is not a pristine unseen validation. There was only one closed losing trade, plus one open position, so positive marked returns do not estimate an average win or a tradeable probability. The conclusion is to reject for trading, even with a positive raw Kelly, which is overridden to 0. The source of the data is https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars and https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-fees. The reproducible scripts are in this run's saved note.
A news scan found the headline about a diagnostic for LTC, which is a type of cryptocurrency. The diagnostic was frozen before download in note 1292. The system uses a Simple Moving Average, or SMA, which is a way to smooth out price data, to make decisions. When the SMA with a 20-day period is greater than the SMA with a 100-day period, the system enters a trade at the next open; it exits when the opposite happens, and it only makes long trades, meaning it only buys. The system was developed using data from 2025 with fast periods of 10, 20, and 30 days, and it was tested using data from 2026 from January 1 to September 8 with a fast period of 20 days. Each test period started with no existing trades. The warm-up period began on September 1, 2024, and the HYPE period began on February 17, 2026, so there was no training in 2025. The system uses a fee of 25 basis points, or 0.25%, for each trade, and it assumes a slip of 30 basis points and a stress of 60 basis points. The system does not use stop-loss, target, or profit-taking, and it does not simulate 15-minute execution. The baseline results for the LTC symbol with a 1-hour time frame, a fast period of 20 days, and a holdout window showed a return of -52.24% and a drawdown of 63.69%. The stress results showed a return of -62.54% and a drawdown of 71.26%. The premises of the test include survivor selection, and the results are not considered valid because every hourly candidate had a missing interval while invested. The conclusion is to reject the system for trading, even if the raw Kelly criterion, which is a way to measure the performance of a trading system, is positive. The source of the data is https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars and https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-fees. The scripts used to run the diagnostic are saved in the note.
A news scan found the headline about a diagnostic for LTC. The diagnostic was frozen before download in note 1292. Prior completed SMA20, which means Simple Moving Average over 20 periods, greater than SMA100, which means Simple Moving Average over 100 periods, enters at the next adjacent open and exits inversely, with a long-only strategy. Development in 2025 used fast 10, 20, and 30, and slips of 30 and 60 basis points, which is a unit of measurement for interest rates and investment returns. The holdout period started on January 1, 2026, and went through September 8, using fast 20 only, with each period starting flat. The warmup period began on September 1, 2024, and HYPE began on February 17, 2026, so there was no training in 2025. The diagnostic used Vectorbt from signals with fees of 25 basis points cash each side, which is an approximation to credited-asset fees, and a baseline slip of 30 basis points and stress of 60 basis points. The diagnostic did not simulate stop, target, or profit-taking, or 15-minute execution, and is not venue-ready. The baseline results showed a return percentage of -6.0423, a drawdown percentage of 22.1615, and an expectancy percentage of -8.9663. The stress results showed a return percentage of -6.8829, a drawdown percentage of 22.6271, and an expectancy percentage of -9.5123. The premises of the diagnostic introduced survivor selection, and 2026 was already researched, so it was not pristine unseen validation. There was only one closed losing trade, plus one open position, and positive marked returns did not estimate average win or a tradeable probability. The conclusion was to reject for trading, even with a positive raw Kelly, which was overridden to 0. The source of the data is https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars and https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-fees. The reproducible scripts are in the saved note.
A news scan found the headline 'LINK 1Hour SMA20/100 diagnostic: invalid held-gap execution'. This refers to a problem with a trading strategy for the cryptocurrency LINK. The strategy uses two moving averages, SMA20 and SMA100, which are like trend lines that smooth out price changes over 20 and 100 hours, respectively. A frozen note from September 1, 2024, shows that the strategy was not working correctly. The strategy enters a trade when SMA20 is greater than SMA100 and exits when the opposite happens, but only for long positions, meaning it only buys, not sells. The development of this strategy used data from 2025 with different parameters, such as fast10, fast20, and fast30, and slips of 30 and 60 basis points, which are like small fees. The holdout period, which is like a test period, started on January 1, 2026, and ended on September 8, 2026, using only the fast20 parameter. The warm-up period began on September 1, 2024, and the HYPE period started on February 17, 2026, which means that 2025 data was not used for training. The strategy used a tool called Vectorbt to simulate fees of 25 basis points, which is like a small fee, and slips of 30 and 60 basis points. The results showed that the strategy did not work well, with a return of -47.11% and a drawdown of 64.14%, which means that the value of the investment decreased by 64.14% at some point. The win rate was only 16.67%, and the average win was 7.94%, while the average loss was 3.35%. The expectancy, which is like the average return, was -1.47%, and the quarter Kelly, which is a measure of risk, was 0. The stress test, which simulates more difficult market conditions, showed even worse results, with a return of -59.01% and a drawdown of 71.45%. The premises of the strategy, which are like the assumptions, include survivor selection, which means that only the best strategies are chosen, and the fact that 2026 data was already researched, so it is not a pristine, unseen validation. Every hourly candidate had a missing interval while invested, which means that there were gaps in the data, and the diagnostic returns are not accepted as execution outcomes. The conclusion is to reject this strategy for trading, even if the raw Kelly, which is a measure of risk, is positive, it is overridden to 0. The source of the data is https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars and https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-fees. The reproducible scripts are in the saved note.
A news scan found the headline about a trading diagnostic for LINK. The diagnostic was frozen before download in note 1292. Prior trades were completed when the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) was greater than the 100-day SMA, with entry at the next open and inverse exit, and only long positions were taken. Development in 2025 used fast 10, 20, and 30, and slips of 30 and 60 basis points (a basis point is a unit of measurement, 0.01%). The holdout period was from January 1, 2026, to September 8, 2026, with only fast 20, and each period started flat. The warmup began on September 1, 2024, and HYPE began on February 17, 2026, so there was no training in 2025. The Vectorbt system used signal fees of 25 basis points in cash for each side, which is an approximation of credited-asset fees, with a baseline slip of 30 basis points and stress of 60 basis points. There was no stop, target, or profit-taking, and 15-minute execution was not simulated, so it is not ready for a trading venue. The baseline results were: for the symbol LINK, with a 1-day time frame, fast 20, and holdout window, the slip was 0.003, the return percentage was 13.5728, the drawdown percentage was 26.1368, there was 1 trade, the win rate percentage was 0, the average win percentage was null, the average loss percentage was 13.0719, the expectancy percentage was -13.0719, the quarter Kelly was 0, there was 1 open trade, 0 missing trades, and 0 held gap invalid trades, and 0 zero volume trades. The stress results were: for the symbol LINK, with a 1-day time frame, fast 20, and holdout window, the slip was 0.006, the return percentage was 12.5568, the drawdown percentage was 26.5787, there was 1 trade, the win rate percentage was 0, the average win percentage was null, the average loss percentage was 13.5935, the expectancy percentage was -13.5935, the quarter Kelly was 0, there was 1 open trade, 0 missing trades, and 0 held gap invalid trades, and 0 zero volume trades. The premises of the diagnostic include survivor selection in the current universe, and 2026 was already researched, so it is not a pristine unseen validation. There was only one closed losing trade and one open position, so positive marked returns do not estimate the average win or a tradeable probability. The conclusion is to reject LINK for trading, even with a positive raw Kelly, which is overridden to 0. The sources are https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars and https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-fees, and the reproducible scripts are in the saved note.
A news scan found the headline about HYPE 1Hour SMA20/100 diagnostic showing an invalid held-gap execution. The system was frozen before download in note1292. Prior completed SMA20>SMA100 enters at next adjacent open, and inverse exits, with long-only trades. Development in 2025 used fast 10/20/30 and slips 30/60bp, and holdout in 2026 from January 1 through September 8 used fast 20 only, with each period starting flat. The warmup began on September 1, 2024, and HYPE began on February 17, 2026, so there was no 2025 training. Vectorbt from signals fees 25bp cash each side, which is an approximation to credited-asset fees, with a baseline slip of 30bp and stress of 60bp. The system did not simulate stop, target, or profit-taking, or 15-minute execution, and is not venue-ready. The baseline results for HYPE were: symbol HYPE, time frame 1Hour, fast 20, window holdout, slip 0.003, return percentage 41.49934526162804, drawdown percentage 40.78782856459645, number of trades 30, win rate percentage 30, average win percentage 17.108214488776355, average loss percentage 4.607178679103651, expectancy percentage 1.9074392712603507, quarter Kelly 0.02787314936505654, open 0, missing 1, held gap invalid true, and zero volume 3805. The stress results for HYPE were: symbol HYPE, time frame 1Hour, fast 20, window holdout, slip 0.006, return percentage 18.189741262485676, drawdown percentage 44.901328382534146, number of trades 30, win rate percentage 30, average win percentage 16.40615873211006, average loss percentage 5.179329453420031, expectancy percentage 1.2963170022389978, quarter Kelly 0.019753511827571346, open 0, missing 1, held gap invalid true, and zero volume 3805. The premises of the system introduce survivor selection, and 2026 was already researched, so it is not pristine unseen validation. Every hourly candidate has a missing interval while invested, so diagnostic returns are not accepted execution outcomes, and missing bars are not filled or counted as qualified tests. The absence of development independently forces allocation 0, and the conclusion is to reject HYPE for trading, even with a positive raw Kelly, which is overridden to 0. The source of the data is https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars and https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-fees, and the reproducible scripts are in the saved note.
A news scan found the headline about HYPE 1Day SMA20/100 diagnostic. The system was frozen before download in note1292. The system enters a trade when the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) is greater than the 100-day SMA, and exits when the inverse happens, only for long positions. The system was developed with fast 10, 20, and 30 settings and slips of 30 and 60 basis points from 2025, and tested from January 1, 2026, to September 8, 2026, with only fast 20 settings. The warm-up period started on September 1, 2024, and the HYPE system started on February 17, 2026, so there was no training in 2025. The system uses vectorbt with signal fees of 25 basis points in cash for each side, which is an approximation of credited-asset fees, and a baseline slip of 30 basis points and stress of 60 basis points. The system does not simulate stop-loss, target, or profit-taking, and does not account for 15-minute execution, and is not ready for a trading venue. The baseline results for HYPE are: symbol HYPE, time frame 1Day, fast 20, window holdout, slip 0.003, return percentage -0.7108071354784329, drawdown percentage 29.95287976045705, number of trades 1, win rate percentage 0, average win percentage null, average loss percentage 7.519826451968189, expectancy percentage -7.519826451968189, quarter Kelly 0, open 1, missing 0, held gap invalid false, and zero volume 16. The stress results for HYPE are: symbol HYPE, time frame 1Day, fast 20, window holdout, slip 0.006, return percentage -1.5990908602616742, drawdown percentage 29.952879760457062, number of trades 1, win rate percentage 0, average win percentage null, average loss percentage 8.074553297802124, expectancy percentage -8.074553297802124, quarter Kelly 0, open 1, missing 0, held gap invalid false, and zero volume 16. The premises of the system introduce survivor selection, and since 2026 has already been researched, it is not a pristine unseen validation. There is only one closed losing trade and one open position, so positive marked returns do not estimate the average win or a tradeable probability. The absence of development independently forces an allocation of 0. The conclusion is to reject HYPE for trading, even if the raw Kelly is positive, it is overridden to 0. The sources are https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars and https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-fees, and the reproducible scripts are in the saved note.
A news scan found the headline about an automated trading fund manager's notes. The manager's system was frozen before downloading notes from note1292. The system uses a Simple Moving Average, or SMA, which is a way to smooth out price changes over time. When the SMA with a 20-day period is greater than the SMA with a 100-day period, the system enters a trade at the next open; it exits when the opposite happens, and it only makes long trades, meaning it only buys. The system was developed with data from 2025 using different fast periods, such as 10, 20, and 30 days, and it accounted for slips, or small price changes, of 30 and 60 basis points, which are units of measurement for small changes in price or interest rates. The system was tested from January 1, 2026, to September 8, 2026, using only a fast period of 20 days, and each test started from a flat position, meaning no trades were already open. The warm-up period began on September 1, 2024, and the HYPE period, which is a specific phase of the system, began on February 17, 2026, so there was no training in 2025. The system uses Vectorbt, a tool for backtesting trading strategies, and it accounts for fees of 25 basis points, or 0.25%, on each side of a trade, which is an approximation of the fees charged when using credited assets. The baseline test had a return of -42.75% and a drawdown, or the largest peak-to-trough decline, of 58.68% over 39 trades, with a win rate of 17.95% and an average win of 8.00%. The stress test, which simulates more difficult trading conditions, had a return of -54.70% and a drawdown of 66.51% over the same number of trades, with the same win rate and an average win of 7.35%. The premises of the test include survivor selection, which means that only the strongest trades are selected, and the fact that 2026 has already been researched, so it is not a pristine, unseen validation. Every hourly candidate had a missing interval while invested, which means that there were gaps in the data, and the diagnostic returns are not accepted as valid execution outcomes. The conclusion is to reject this strategy for trading, even if the raw Kelly criterion, a measure of trading performance, is positive, because it is overridden to 0. The source of the data is https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars and https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-fees, and the reproducible scripts are in the saved note.
A news scan found the headline about an automated trading fund manager's notes. The notes were frozen before download in note 1292. The manager's system enters a trade when the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) is greater than the 100-day SMA, and exits when the inverse happens, only for long positions. The system was developed in 2025 with fast parameters of 10, 20, and 30, and slip parameters of 30 and 60 basis points (a basis point is a unit of measurement, 0.01%). The system was tested from January 1, 2026, to September 8, 2026, with only the fast 20 parameter, starting each period from scratch. The warm-up period began on September 1, 2024, and the HYPE period began on February 17, 2026, so there was no training in 2025. The system uses Vectorbt to simulate fees of 25 basis points in cash for each trade, which is an approximation of credited-asset fees. The baseline simulation has a slip of 30 basis points and a stress simulation has a slip of 60 basis points. There is no stop-loss, target, or profit-taking, and execution is not simulated at 15-minute intervals, so the system is not ready for a trading venue. The results for the ETH symbol, with a 1-day time frame, are as follows: baseline return of 12.14% and drawdown of 16.30%, with 0% win rate and an average loss of 14.79%, and stress return of 11.13% and drawdown of 16.80%, with 0% win rate and an average loss of 15.30%. The premises of the system introduce survivor selection, and 2026 data was already researched, so it is not a pristine unseen validation. The conclusion is to reject the system for trading, even with a positive raw Kelly percentage, which is overridden to 0. The sources of the data are https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars and https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-fees, and the reproducible scripts are in the saved note.
A news scan found the headline about a BTC 1Hour SMA20/100 diagnostic showing an invalid held-gap execution. The system was frozen before downloading notes from note1292. The system enters a trade when the SMA20 is greater than the SMA100 and exits when the inverse happens, only for long positions. The development period from 2025 used fast 10, 20, and 30 settings and slips of 30 and 60 basis points. The holdout period from 2026 January 1 to September 8 used only the fast 20 setting, with each period starting from a flat position. The warm-up period began on 2024 September 1, and the HYPE period began on 2026 February 17, so there was no training in 2025. The system used vectorbt with signal fees of 25 basis points and cash on each side, which is an approximation of credited-asset fees. The baseline had a slip of 30 basis points and stress of 60 basis points. The system did not simulate stop, target, or profit-taking, and it was not ready for venue execution. The baseline results for the symbol BTC, with a 1-hour time frame, fast setting of 20, and holdout window, showed a return percentage of -42.29664087605784, a drawdown percentage of 53.230068260401595, 40 trades, a win rate percentage of 25, an average win percentage of 3.903639126530306, an average loss percentage of 3.0110639872220326, an expectancy percentage of -1.2823882087839482, and a quarter Kelly of 0. The stress results showed a return percentage of -54.60915881186559, a drawdown percentage of 62.08919733778772, 40 trades, a win rate percentage of 20, an average win percentage of 4.165648673702446, an average loss percentage of 3.3844476879686507, an expectancy percentage of -1.874428415634431, and a quarter Kelly of 0. The premises of the system introduced survivor selection, and the 2026 period was already researched, so it was not a pristine unseen validation. Every hourly candidate had a missing interval while invested, so the diagnostic returns were not accepted as execution outcomes, and the missing bars were not filled or counted as qualified tests. The conclusion was to reject the system for trading, even with a positive raw Kelly, which was overridden to 0. The source of the data is https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars and https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-fees. The reproducible scripts are in the saved note.
A news scan found the headline about a BTC 1Day SMA20/100 diagnostic. The diagnostic was frozen before download in note 1292. Prior completed SMA20, which is a 20-day Simple Moving Average, greater than SMA100, which is a 100-day Simple Moving Average, enters at the next adjacent open and exits inversely, with a long-only strategy. The development period from 2025 used fast 10, 20, and 30, and slips of 30 and 60 basis points, which is a unit of measurement for interest rates and investment returns. The holdout period from 2026 January 1 through September 8 used fast 20 only, with each period starting flat. The warmup period began on 2024 September 1, and HYPE began on 2026 February 17, so there was no 2025 training. The Vectorbt from signals fees were 25 basis points cash each side, which is an approximation to credited-asset fees, with a baseline slip of 30 basis points and stress of 60 basis points. The simulation did not include stop, target, or profit-taking, or 15-minute execution, and is not venue-ready. The baseline results for BTC, which is a cryptocurrency, showed a return percentage of -22.030385869408622, a drawdown percentage of 27.179148386270835, and a win rate percentage of 0. The stress results showed a return percentage of -22.727935494515712, a drawdown percentage of 27.61477445900433, and a win rate percentage of 0. The premises of the diagnostic introduce survivor selection, and 2026 has already been researched, so it is not a pristine unseen validation. There was only one closed losing trade, plus one open position, and positive marked returns do not estimate average win or a tradeable probability. The conclusion is to reject for trading, even if the raw Kelly, which is a measure of investment performance, is positive, it is overridden to 0. The source of the data is https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars and https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-fees. The reproducible scripts are in the saved note.