Stats

Premises: 1 Preserve nine normalized20session paths and price.13,stop.065,target.39; European BS calibrated to indicative mid.105 gives49.352556% IV,4% assumed rate,no dividend. Fixed25calendar-day decay over20daily checks; model bid=max(BS-halfspread,0),2USDroundtripfriction. 2 Exactequalweight baseline mean-$7.09092,1/9targets,8/9stops; previous-$7.05185 was finite50kresampling, not discrepant data. IIDbootstrap50000 nine-pathmeans(seed92104)95%interval[-12.27064,+1.48562], limitedN9, not calibrated liveEV. Baselinezero-halfspread mean-.30007; IV*1.2/zero-spread+4.29475 andIV*1.2/.025spread-1.04043 show execution/model sensitivity. Positivecorner cannot be selected as reality. 3 Under conservative3xexit versus fullpremiumloss, with2USDcost,13USDpremium yields+24/-15: breakeventargetprobability38.4615%. On100fund, halfKelly mustallocate15USD includingcost to fitonecontract; binary targetprobability56.9231% required. This is an assumption threshold, NOT forecast. At10USDticket+18/-12 threshold54.4%; at15USD+28/-17 threshold58.9333%. Actual50%stopcanreduce loss but gaps/spreadcanrestorefull loss. 4 No owntrades; N0completeactualoptionpaths from prior3800 remains unfilled evidencegap. Base modelhalfKelly0; avoid claiming endpoint55.6%netwins estimates probabilityofhittingtargetbeforestop. Conclusion: cannot defend a positive managed size fromthismodel; preservepromptliveadjudicationratherthanpermanentmodelveto. Need changeinattainablequote/spread or explicitlydefendedexit-awareodds; cheaperaskalone notproof. Currentaccount999.26 =>49.963premiummmaximum,total100,max2; no researchorder. Syntheticthreshold.065 may differ frombrokerstop: Alpaca disallows3decimalbrokerorders andDSXppindfalse; verifyvenueimplementation. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/option-chain/DSX?feed=indicative ; https://alpaca.markets/support/options-pricing-increments-and-options-order-handling .

Premises: S3.11,K3,Oct16putask.13,Fridayindicativemid.105,bid.08. Fit EuropeanBSIV49.3526% at25calendardays,r4%,nodividends; feedIV54.14% usesdifferentconvention. Resample50000 entire normalized20sessionpaths from9 historicalbreakouts, seed92102; decay25calendar dayslinearlyover20checks. Dailybidmodel=max(BS-.025,0),stop.065,target.39,$2roundtripfriction. Baseline mean-$7.05185,win11.178%,stop88.822%,target11.178%,P5-$15/P95+$25.2241;halfKelly0. IV*.8mean-$7.9401,IV*1.2-$0.8932,allhalfKelly0. Markbasisstress: nohalfspreadmean-.14623,onecenthalfspread-6.55541; these prove sensitivity, notknowable execution. Hypotheticalpayprices.12/.11/.10 whileholdingunderlying/IVfixed yieldmeans-6.6548/-6.4917/-5.4917,notattainablequotes. Contrast terminalwithoutstops mean+$12.7754,5/9netwins,avgwin32.1211,avgloss11.4067,halfKelly.198864 of100fundsupportsone13USD; stop-awaremodeldoesnot. Thus no honest calibrated claimofpositivepathEV today. ModeldoesNOTaddapermanentmandateveto: livebidask,actualstoptriggerbasis andcurrentfinancingcause mustbereviewedMonday. 50000drawsarenot50000independentevents;dailychecksarenotvenue15minutes, nohistoricoptionquotes, Americanexercise/dividends omitted. Fullpremium13USD=1.301%account,13%fund;nominalstoprisk6.50 maygaptofullpremiumplusfees. Target.39 implies26USDgrossprofit,notpromise. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; /data/option-chain/DSX?feed=indicative .

Premises: hypotheticalFridaySep18S46.67,Oct16P40ask.48,bid.33; exitOct5beforeearnings, stop.24,target1.44. EuropeanBS,no dividends/earlyexercise, assumedrate4%,bid=mid-.075,2USDroundtrip. Fit totalvariance to.405mid, splitRV20normalvariance/eventvariance; 3dayblockbootstrap non-eventreturns,50000paths seed92100,11dailychecks throughOct5. Baseline mean-$16.8918,win15.762%,stop75.544%,target3.276%,P05-$37.41/P95+$58.03. Eventvariance75%/125% means-$29.1867/-$5.7825,halfKelly0allcases. This is an assumptions-based sensitivity, not calibratedliveodds or an attainableMondayentry; Mondayquotes/remainingtime require refit. Quarterprobe12USD impossible at48USDwholecontract. Fullpremium48=4.8%equity/48%fund; two suchtickets96=9.6%equity. A50%stop does not cap gap loss. Event-jump counterfactual cannot justify a policy that exits first; model alone is not a permanentveto. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; /data/option-chain/LW?feed=indicative . Inputs/results31127.

Premises: BB Oct2 C8.5 costs .43, S7.99; event hurdle11.7647% exceeds N13 median9.1153%, requiring Sep23 pre-event exit. European-call scenario calibrated to .405 indicative midpoint; r4%, halfspread .025, roundtrip friction .02/share, arithmetic RV20 .571319, total variance .0359627 and residual event variance .0234431. Bootstrap247 non-event daily log returns independently across three checks Sep21–23 (calendar decay3/4/5days), 50000 paths seed92008; stop.215, target1.29. Base mean-$5.72394, win28.398%, stop19.392%, target.998%, timeexit79.610%; P05-$29.17/P95+$36.62. Event variance75%/125% means-$11.0527/-.9359, all estimated halfKelly0. Assumed bid construction, iid sampling, daily checks and frozen spreads are not venue executions or calibrated live odds. Does not create an additional permanent veto; BB already fails both payoff alternatives. Contrast forbidden hold-through counterfactual: training11 mean-$22.39 per ticket,2wins, not a traded backtest. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars and /data/option-chain/BB?feed=indicative ; full observations30950–51.

Premises: Oct16P40 buy.48,S46.67,50%optionstop.24,target3x=1.44,mandatoryOct5pre-eventexit. Model notliveodds: Europeanput,no dividend/earlyexercise, assumedr4%, bid=BSmid-.075 floored0; $2roundtripcostscenario. CalibrateSep18T28/365 toindicativemid.405: totalvariance.01990934, normalRV20.261624, residualeventvariance.01465860. Bootstrap247 non-eventdailylogreturns,last252sessions,3dayblocks,50000pathsseed92006;11dailychecksSep21–Oct5, actualcalendar-decaydays3,4,5,6,7,10,11,12,13,14,17. Fixedremainingeventvariancebase:stop75.412%,target3.236%,timeexit21.352%,win15.878%,meanPnL-$16.7617,P05-$37.4095,P95+$59.1994. ±25%eventvariance meanPnL-$28.9965/-$5.5714. ConstantIVbase mean-$28.3786; full6scenarios allmeannegative, numericalhalfKelly0 andwholecontracts0. Positivehistoricaldrift .000741/day isestimated, notforecast; blockresamplingnotcalibrated15minexecution. Event-conditioned11historicalscaledpaths allmodeledlosses, no targets. Counterfactualholdthrough signedintrinsicmean3.2242xpremium,profits4/11,zero7/11,2026two both-$50includingassumedcost: this is prohibitedcounterfactualatcurrentmedianhurdle, nottradedexpectancy. Fullpremiummaybelost despite50%stop. Reassess liveprice/IV andactualpre-eventhistoryratherthan treatingMCasindefiniteveto. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars and /data/option-chain/LW?feed=indicative . NeedseparateliveBBO; explicitOPRA403.