Stats

Edge test: ten consecutive issuer-scheduled HITI AMC earnings March2024–June2026, 926 SIP adjustment=all daily bars; release-close to next-session-close median absolute4.700378%. Sep11S2.53, Oct16C2.5 .21Sep11/P2.5 .16Sep10 plus assumed .05/share roundtrip costs require +9.090909%/-9.486166%; each1/10=10%, below40%. Mean mapped intrinsic .213531/.571515 times premium is not actual option expected payoff; no documented3x payout. Aug25issuer quote 'after financial markets close on Monday, September 14, 2026' https://hightideinc.com/high-tide-to-announce-third-fiscal-quarter-2026-financial-results/ ; Oct16expiry32dayslater, defaultSep11RTHexitpassed, noholdexception (hurdles above median4.390531/4.785788pp). Sources option_contracts and https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/option-bars . 1. CompletedSep11dailyclose2.53 aboveSMA20/50(2.501/2.3244), RSI14EWM56.263135; ATR20simpleTR.08099,RV20samplelogannual25236.111156%. These correlatedprice descriptors do not supply independent eventdirection or override10%coverage. No posteventindicator used for entry filtering, and no small-stratum regime optimization. 2. Full-premium risk implies gross3Rprofittarget4xpremium: C.84/P.64; adding.05costreserve requires.89/.69 exitmarks. Selected5train+2holdoutcallwindows andoneputtrainingwindow show0closing4xhits; incomplete intradaymarks cannotestablish actualhit odds. No live stop/targetadopted. UnderlyingATRisnotoptionstop. 3. Current$21/$16premiums fitnormal3%$25.5297 but coverageandpayofffail. Currentput4/10researchpremiumceiling.059010989 atS2.53 after.05cost; call no nonnegativepremium attains4/10 withcost. This is a jointprice/spot reviewcondition notquote/order. DefaultHITIexitSep11passed, noMondayentrywithoutnewdocumentedholdexception.

Edge test:10 consecutive issuer-scheduled AMC earnings Mar2024–Jun2026, fresh926 SIP adjustment=all dailybars, release-close to next-session-close medianabsolute16.578014%. Sep11S2.95; Oct16C2.5 catalog.50Sep10 plus.05/share assumedroundtripcost requires+3.389831%,4/10; C5.05Sep10 requires+72.881356%,0/10; P2.5.12Sep11 requires-21.016949%,2/10. C2.5mappedmeanintrinsic1.109296xpremium excludesresidualtime,notactualoptionEV; no documented3xexpectedpayoff. Sep2issuer quote 'after market close on Wednesday, September 23, 2026' https://investors.stitchfix.com/news-events/press-releases/news-details/2026/Stitch-Fix-Announces-Date-for-Fourth-Quarter-and-Full-Fiscal-Year-2026-Financial-Results-and-Conference-Call/default.aspx . ExpiryOct16+23days; defaultSep22RTHexit. Historical primaryURLs anddatequotes in R91306eventobservations, re-openedthisrun. Sources option_contracts SFIX; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/option-bars . 1. Acrosssixselectedtrainingwindowsandonesupportedholdout, zeroobservedclosingmarksreach4xentrypremium andzerohit halfpremium; missingintermediatetrades meantheseareobservedcounts,notactualintradayhitoddsorfillclaims. Baselineis time-exitcontrol,notvalidated15minstop/trailing/+2Rquarterpolicy. 2. Current.50call requiresgross3Rtarget2.00. Historicaleventintrinsicrequires52.542373%stockrise,0/10versusmaximum44.347826%; residualtimevaluecouldhelpbutpriorIVsensitivity3129hasnodefendedtarget. No livestoportargetadopted. 3. Nearestcurrentcallcost50USD(5.87551%equity),intrinsic45USD(5.28796%)bothabove42.5495convictioncap;absolute6%51.0594isnotpermissiontoignorestricterrisk. Threeof6trainpremiums<=normal25.5297,holdout74noteligible. Counterexamplecheaperfuturestockchangesbothcontractcostandbusinessregime; mustrepricejointlyandretainsmallprobeconstraint. OnlyRTHexecution,defaultfutureexitSep22; holdthroughmargin16.578014-3.389831=13.188183ppmotivatesresearch,notcurrentexception.

Edge test:10 consecutive issuer-scheduled AMC earnings Mar2024-Jun2026 reverified against primary URLs in observations27176–85 and926 fresh SIP adjustmentall daily bars. Release-close to next-session-close median absolute16.578014%; Sep11S2.95 Oct16C2.5 close.50Sep10 plusassumed.05/share totalcost requires+3.389831%,4/10; P2.5 .12Sep11 requires-21.016949%,2/10; C5 .05Sep10 requires+72.881356%,0/10. No documented actual option expected payoff>=3xpremium. IssuerSep2 quote 'after market close on Wednesday, September 23, 2026' https://investors.stitchfix.com/news-events/press-releases/news-details/2026/Stitch-Fix-Announces-Date-for-Fourth-Quarter-and-Full-Fiscal-Year-2026-Financial-Results-and-Conference-Call/default.aspx . Oct16expiry23dayslater; defaultSep22RTHexit; no current position. Source option_contracts SFIX; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/option-bars . 1. AtS2.95AmericanC2.5intrinsic.45 exceeds.425495convictioncap. Normalrisk3% requiresS<=2.755297 evenwithzeroextrinsic;5%conviction requiresS<=2.925495. Necessary not sufficient bounds. Coverageceiling p<=S*1.091684434968-K-.05 becausefourthlargestreturn9.168443%. Sevenrows27213; atS2.5ceiling.179211,at2.6 .28838. Joint empiricalKelly normalrisk centgrid allows atS2.5p<=.16,at2.6p.10–.21,at2.7p.20–.25,at2.75p.25,noneat2.8/2.9. Thesehypotheticalpricesarenotobservedquotes or model fairvalues. 2. Sep11price2.95 belowSMA20 3.15725 andSMA50 3.5796;RSI35.386979,ATR.146365,RV20annual42.610824%. Last20inclcurrentlow2.82stillabovenormalnecessaryspot2.755297. 60dailylogreturnOLSbeta.786945/corr.153943/alpha-.006004 descriptive,notcausalityorforecast. 3. Fallingintofeasibleregioncouldreflectworseningbusiness,invalidatingstationaryeventdistribution; mustreassesscause,date,prices,costs,quarter-sizedprobeandKellyjointly. StrongcountercasecheapATMcallcanpaymultiples; validwatch,notcurrententry. No technical rule adopted.

Edge test: nine consecutive fiscal earnings Q3FY24–Q3FY26 (May2024–May2026), SIP adjustment=all prior-close to morning-release-day close, median absolute5.245902%, range -11.810013% to+23.8%. AtSep11S7.39 Oct16P5 .05Sep11 plusassumed.05/sharecost needs33.694181%fall,0/9; P7.5 .69 needs8.525034%,1/9 and69USD>51.0594absolute; C5 2.45Sep8 needs+1.488498%,5/9 but245USD>102.12fund and42.5495convictionrisk. No documentedactualoptionexpectedpayoff>=3xpremium. Aug26issuer quote 'before the U.S. market open on September 16, 2026' https://investors.luxexperience.com/news/news-details/2026/LuxExperience-Announces-Fourth-Quarter-and-Full-Fiscal-Year-2026-Earnings-Release-and-Conference-Call-Participating-in-Upcoming-Investor-Conference/default.aspx . ExpiryOct16+30days; defaultSep15RTHexit, noholdexception foraffordableput becausehurdle exceedsmedian28.448279pp. History originalURLs and bars26862–89; ISOdatesinobservationnotes normalized, notverbatimissuerdateformat. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; option_contracts LUXE. 1. Sep11close7.39 belowSMA20 7.6385/SMA50 7.8744/SMA200 8.2891; RSI14Wilder41.1713,20sessionreturn-2.5066%,arithmeticATR20.325145,20logreturnannualizedRV29.8176%. 676SIPbarsJan2024–Sep2026,no pagination. 2. Combinedregime weaktrend plus RSIbelow50 supportswatchingdownside, noteventtailprobability. P5costedbreak-even4.90 is7.6581ATR belowspot; observedmedianmove.387671equivalentdollars doesnotreach2.49hurdle. 3. Counterexampleearningsup21.0867% inFeb2026, so currentweaknesscanreverse. Nooptionstop/targetadopted onstocklevels; exitsmustuseoptionprice andRTH. Rejectbuy based solely on technicals.

Edge test: corrected10 consecutive issuer-dated AMC earnings Mar2024–Jun2026, daily SIP release-close to next-session close, median absolute16.578014%. Sep11S2.95, Oct16P2.5 .12Sep11/C2.5 .50Sep10 plus assumed .05/share costs require -21.016949%/+3.389831%, covered2/10(20%)/4/10(40%). Callpassescoveragebut50USDpremium exceeds42.5495 convictionrisk; even45USDintrinsicexceedscap. Putfails40%; no documentedexpectedactualoptionpayoff>=3xpremium. IssuerSep2 quote 'after market close on Wednesday, September 23, 2026' https://investors.stitchfix.com/news-events/press-releases/news-details/2026/Stitch-Fix-Announces-Date-for-Fourth-Quarter-and-Full-Fiscal-Year-2026-Financial-Results-and-Conference-Call/default.aspx . Oct16expiry23dayslater; defaultSep22RTHexit. Sources option_contracts and https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars /data/option-bars; historicalsources recorded26537–46. OriginalN8preserved. 1. 926SIPallbarsJan2023-Sep11; WilderEWM14RSI/ATR, logreturnstd20annualsqrt252; OLS60logreturnsSPYbeta.786945,corr.153943. 2. S2.95 belowSMA20 3.15725/SMA50 3.5796,RSI35.38698describesweaktrend; prior20range2.82–3.71,ATR.146365. Bearstockpremise isweakpriceaction; counterexample Dec2024+44.35%event. 3. No newindicatorfilterfiton10outcomes. Jointweaktrenddoesnotrescue20%putcoverage. Stocklevelsarenotoptionexits; flatbookmeansnoR/daysheld/stopadjustment.

Edge test: nine issuer-dated AMC earnings Feb2024–Jun2026, SIP daily release-close to next-session close; median absolute5.543964%, mean-0.908716%. Sep11 S39.02, Oct16 C45 .30/P35 .40 catalog closes plus assumed.05/share roundtrip reserve require+16.222450%/-11.455664%, covered0/9 and1/9 (11.11%), below40%. Without reserve put2/9. No documented expected actual-option payout>=3xpremium. Oct16expiry31daysafterissuerSep2 schedule: 'Tuesday, September 15, 2026, U.S. Time, after the market closes.' https://investors.trip.com/node/15681/pdf ; defaultSep14RTHexit. Hurdles exceedmedian10.678486/5.911700pp, noholdexception. Sources option_contracts and https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . CorrectedN9 includesMay19 2025; August26 2024hourunverified sensitivityN10median6.067764%,0/10C1/10P. OldN8/S38.7/.32C/.48Pforecast retained separately. 1. CompletedSep11SIPclose39.02 remainsbelowSMA20 43.6245/SMA50 43.9556;20dayreturn-13.327410%,WilderRSI14 25.413057,ATR20simpleTR.978805,RV20samplelogannualized29.586832%;last20low38.665/high46.665. RSIreboundedfromsavedSep10 22.7242butstilldescriptive. 2. Premise: bearishtrendcouldcontinue. Counterexample: anoversoldreliefrallycanharmputs evenwithbadcashnews. Currentstockincrease38.7to39.02madeputstrikefartheraway despitepremiumfall. NeitherATR norRSIreplacesearningscoverage. Candidatefullpremium3Rnetoptiontargets .30*4+.05=1.25call/.40*4+.05=1.65put; intrinsicmapping0/9reacheseither. Thesearealgebraicthresholds, notdefendedactualoptiontargetsororders. 3. Optionstop/target15minuteRTHimplementationandIV/timevalueexitoddsnotestimated; fullpremiumriskisthehardlimit. No syntheticstockstopusedforoptionposition. Flatbookhasnoexitstomove.

Edge test: ten issuer-dated scheduled AMC earnings March2024–June2026, daily pre-release close to next-session close, median absolute4.700378%, signed mean-3.027709%. At Sep11 S2.53, Oct16 K2.5 call .21(Sep11catalog) /put .16(Sep10catalog, stale) plus assumed .05/share roundtrip costs require +9.090909%/-9.486166%; both1/10=10%, below40%. Old frozenN9 remains1/9,median5.494505%; preserve it separately. No documented3x expectedoptionpayoff. Source option_contracts and https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; /data/option-bars. Issuer Aug25 https://hightideinc.com/high-tide-to-announce-third-fiscal-quarter-2026-financial-results/ says 'after financial markets close on Monday, September 14, 2026'. Oct16expiry32daysafter; defaultSep11RTHexit already elapsed. Hurdles exceednewmedian4.390531/4.785788pp, noholdexception. Closes are not executable asks; intrinsic is not actualoptionPnL. 1. Successfulsingle15Minprobebefore10sessionbatchwith2workers. Recovered260/260expectedRTH15minbars,09:30inclusive–16:00exclusiveNY; no missing/pagination,all200. Mapcurrentcostedpercenthurdlesontoeachhistoricalpreclose, inspect15minopens; underlyingdiagnosticnotoptionquote. 2. Callhurdlehitsatanysample1/10(June2026);put2/10(Jan/Mar2025), versusdailyextremes1/10and3/10. June14 2024putlowcrossed2.317154level,but0scheduledopensdid. Jan30 2025put5samplehits,Mar18 2025put25samplehits,June16 2026call26samplehits. None establishesoption3Rtargetorfillablequotes. Actualvenue15minutecheckphaseunverified. 3. Dailyversusintradayaggregationdifferencesretained:Jan30 2025dailyopen2.83vs09:30bar2.80;June16 2026dailyclose2.52vs15:45barclose2.51. Frozenmandateusesdailybars; do notsilentlysplice. CurrentS2.53aboveSMA20=2.501/SMA50=2.3244,ATR20=.08099; preeventpositiveleveldoesnotjustifyfailedsignedoptioncoverage. Noexitsmovedbecauseflat.

Edge test: 11 issuer-dated morning earnings Jan2024–Jul2026, US ADR daily prior-close to release-close; median absolute5.864627%, range-8.474903% to+11.444479%. Sep11S11.13, Oct30C13 .45 needs+21.293801%,P9.5 .27 needs-17.520216%,including assumed.05/share roundtrip costs: both0/11 (and0/11openinggaps), below40%. CatalogNov20C13 .49Sep10 ->.63Sep11 exceeds51.0594premiumcap; Oct30P10 .52 alsoovercap. No documented3xexpectedoptionpayoff. ExpiryOct30eightdaysafterissuer '22 October 2026'; defaultOct21RTHexit, noholdexception becausehurdlesexceedmedian15.429174/11.655589pp. Sources https://www.nokia.com/newsroom/nokia-corporations-financial-calendar-for-2026/ ; option_contracts ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/option-bars . Closesnotexecutableasks; intrinsicmappingnotactualoptionPnL. 1. Sep11close11.13>SMA20 10.34050/SMA50 10.33708/SMA200 9.659325;RSI14WilderEWM60.974432;20dayreturn5.397727%. ATR20simpleTR.418295,20dayhigh11.17/low9.54. AnnualizedlogRV20 42.145303%,RV60 63.497998%;60daymarketbeta2.717701,notearningsbeta. 2. TrendcouldcontinuebeforeOct22; it doesnotimplya21.29%eventjump. Closenear20dayhighisnotbroken-outnextsessionconfirmation. ATRisunderlyingriskcontext,notoptionstop. Noentry/stop/targetinventedfromstocklevels. Countercasepersistentdriftmightprofitlongcallsbeforeearnings; requiresactualoptioncostedruleandforwardprices, notthiseventdistribution.

Edge test: CAG nine issuer-dated morning earnings Jul2024–Jul2026 median absolute2.064410%; Sep11S14.60, Oct9C15.5 catalog.35Sep10/currenttrade.20Sep11 requires+8.904110%/+7.876712% incl assumed.05cost,0/9 both. P14.5 catalog.44 requires-4.041096%,2/9; current.60 requires-5.136986%,1/9 and60premium>51.0594absolute cap. LW eight issuer-dated morning events Jul2024–Jul2026 median13.153864%; S47.85,Oct16C57.5 catalog.35/current.38 requires+21.003135/+21.065831%,0/8. P40 catalog.50/current.55 requires-17.554859/-17.659352%,3/8(37.5%) and55premium>cap. Mean mapped intrinsic LW P40 1.498726USD/share =2.724957x currentpremium,2.497877x assumedallincost; NOT actual optionexpectancy. No40%pass or documented3xexpectedpayoff. LW omittedOct1 2024 due releasehour ambiguity; addingOct2reaction yields3/9 andmedian10.017371%,alsofails. Dates: CAG Aug31issuer 'Wednesday, September 30, 2026' morning before09:30ETQ&A https://www.conagrabrands.com/news-room/news-conagra-brands-to-release-fiscal-2027-first-quarter-earnings-on-september-30-2026-prn-122962 ; LW Sep8issuer 'October 6, 2026' approximately08ETrelease/09ETcall https://investors.lambweston.com/news-events/news-releases . Expiries9/10daysafter; default exitsSep29/Oct5RTH. Historical originals recorded25518+ and25563+; sources option_contracts plus https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars and /data/option-bars. Closes not executableasks. 1. S14.60<SMA20 15.796 andSMA200 15.38265; ATR20 .41226,RSI14 35.5222,RV20 .273481annualized. 2. Downtrend contextconsistentwithfundamentalsbut an8.9%catalogcallhurdle is3.15ATR, current7.8767% is2.79ATR. Putcurrent5.137% is1.82ATRbutcost60failscap; ATRnoteventprobability. A reversal counterexample defeatsautomaticmomentum extrapolation; nextsession prices canchange. No technicaltrade andno stop/targetin underlying mistakenlyappliedtooption.

Edge test: BB frozen12 issuer-dated earnings Sep2023-Jun2026 median absolute9.987505%; Sep11 S7.67/Oct2C8 .45 plus .05 assumed costs requires+10.821382%,4/12; P7.5 .41 requires-8.213820%,3/12. HITI N9 median5.494505%; Sep11 S2.53/Oct16C2.5 .21 requires+9.090909%,1/9. GIS N9 June2024-Jul2026 median3.063603%; Sep10 S35.96 Oct16C40 .38/P32.5 .50 costed hurdles+12.430478/-11.151279%,0/9 each. No40% pass or documented3x expected payout. Closes not executable prices; intrinsic proxy excludes residual time. Dates: BB issuer Sep10 'September 24, 2026, at 8:00 a.m. ET' https://www.accessnewswire.com/newsroom/en/computers-technology-and-internet/blackberry-to-announce-fiscal-second-quarter-2027-results-on-sept-1216954 ; HITI Aug25 'after financial markets close on Monday, September 14, 2026' https://hightideinc.com/high-tide-to-announce-third-fiscal-quarter-2026-financial-results/ ; GIS Aug26 'September 23, 2026' and 'issued that morning' https://investors.generalmills.com/press-releases/press-release-details/2026/General-Mills-to-Webcast-Fiscal-2027-First-Quarter-Earnings-Results-on-September-23-2026/default.aspx . Expiry8/32/23 days after respectively; default exits Sep23/Sep11/Sep22 RTH. Sources option_contracts, https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars and /data/option-bars, historical issuer URLs in event observations. 1. 926 adjusted SIP dailybarsJan2023-Sep11; Wilder-styleEWM14, SMA20/50, RV20samplelogreturns*sqrt252. BB close7.67,+1.7241%day, belowSMA20 8.0295/SMA50 8.8652, RSI40.7991, ATR.382735, RV54.6810%. GIS35.85 below39.2305/37.7714, RSI35.3199,ATR1.217758,RV34.4381%. 2. Joint belowmovingaverages+RSI<50 describesweaktrend; onegreenBBsession doesnotestablishreversal. Counterexample earningscan overwhelmtrend; optionmuststillclear4/12gate. No fittedindicatorfilter becauseeventsubsettiny andalreadyinspected. Pricelevels stockdescriptions, notoptionstops. No holdings, so noexitstochange.

Edge test frozen Sep11: BB S7.54, Oct2C8 close.40 requires+11.405836%, covers3/12 (25%); Oct2P7 close.32 requires-11.405836%, covers2/12 (16.67%). Twelve consecutive quarterly releases Sep2023-Jun2026, pre-newsclose to firstpost-newsclose, medianabsolute9.987505%; first8 C2/P1, last4 C1/P1. Neither40%gate nor documented3xexpectedoptionpayout passes. Oct2expiry8daysafter Sep24event; defaultSep23RTHexit, hurdleexceedsmedian1.418331pp so noholdthrough exception. Sources: issuer-dated event observations24113–24126, https://investors.blackberry.com/ ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars and /data/option-bars. 1. Sep10SIPadjustmentall925bars; WilderEWMA14 RSI38.0472,ATR.397676(5.2742%ofS),SMA20 8.0955/SMA50 8.968; current7.54belowboth. RV20 55.2129%annual/RV60 76.3078%;last20return-14.0251%,20dayrange7.47–9.08. 2. CombinedlowertrendandRSIbelow50 signalsweakness; fallingRVmeansrecent realizedvolslowerthan60dayregime. These are descriptive, no fittedputwinprobability. 3. Aputbreak-even6.68lies10.5756%below20daylow7.47; near7.5put.52cost52>51.0594cap. ATRstop cannotboundoptionpremiumor overnightgap; at3Rnetfullrisk targets call1.60/put1.28 would need majorrepricing, no evidencecurrentpricedtailsreachthese. 4. Strongcountercase istrendturn aftergoodresults; call stockupside doesnotmeanexpensivecallprofitable. Indicatorsdo not override3/12and2/12.

Edge test: PLAY S8.17 Oct16C10 .40/P7 .50 require +27.294982%/-20.440636%,0/12 each, medianabs10.624339%; VRA S3.05 Oct16P2.5 .10 requires-21.311475%,0/12,medianabs10.350471%; SFIX S2.85 Oct16P2.5 .15 requires-17.543860%,2/8,medianabs16.578014%; TCOM S38.70 Oct16C45 .32/P35 .48 require+17.105943%/-10.801034%,0/8 and2/8,medianabs4.590973%. All fail40%; no documented actual-option expectedpayout>=3x. Sources: issuer schedules in event observations and https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars and /data/option-bars; catalog closes datedSep9 checked withSep10 delayed bars. 1. September10 SIPadjustmentall close, Wilder14 RSI/ATR,20/50SMA and20day annualizedlogRV calculatedon925dailybars from2023. [{"symbol":"PLAY","S":8.17,"SMA20":9.462499999999999,"SMA50":10.0246,"RSI14":35.73768198709139,"ATR14":0.5767722089866175,"prior20low":8.045,"prior20high":11.1,"RV20_ann_pct":69.80237704694696},{"symbol":"TCOM","S":38.7,"SMA20":43.9245,"SMA50":43.9968,"RSI14":22.724174520833685,"ATR14":1.0784470869839355,"prior20low":39,"prior20high":46.665,"RV20_ann_pct":29.064910855065957},{"symbol":"VRA","S":3.05,"SMA20":3.2239999999999993,"SMA50":3.4952000000000005,"RSI14":38.175466344680615,"ATR14":0.16408705048172534,"prior20low":3.04,"prior20high":3.47,"RV20_ann_pct":51.83765867720069},{"symbol":"SFIX","S":2.85,"SMA20":3.1922499999999996,"SMA50":3.600799999999999,"RSI14":29.483216244943506,"ATR14":0.1491626120601394,"prior20low":2.88,"prior20high":3.775,"RV20_ann_pct":41.72599346668795}] 2. Allbelow20/50SMA; TCOM38.70 belowprior20low39 andSFIX2.85 below2.88; oversoldRSI22.72/29.48 cancontinue orreverse. No prediction assigned from descriptiveconfluence. 3. Range/RSI is not an eventmove distribution and cannot substitute for8samekindevents or executableoptionbacktest. Counterexampleoversoldbounces harmputs. Targets wouldneed>=4xpremium gross for3Rnet fullpremiumrisk, and empiricalmedians do notsupportthepurchasedstrikes. No stop/target invented for rejected orders.

Edge test: MLKN Oct16 P17.5 reference .28 Sep9, S20.80 Sep10: requires -17.211538%; eight issuer-dated earnings close moves, median absolute10.745876%, coverage1/8=12.5% (<40%), intraday lows also1/8. HITI frozen N9 medianabs5.494505%, C.31/P.16 atS2.56 require+9.765625/-8.593750%; closecoverage1/9each, putdaily-low4/9 is hindsight path only. Neither documents expected optionpayoff>=3x premium. Premises: Sep10completedSIP daily descriptors storedfor9symbols inobservations23025–33. MLKN20.8 belowSMA20 22.71575, day-3.9261%, ADR20 .79, ATR14simple .8025; putstrike17.5 is4.1772ADRbelowspot, break-even17.22 is4.5316ADRbelow. HITI2.56 aboveSMA20 2.4905 despite-.3891%day; ADR.07847 andannualRV20 35.764%, so trend alone doesnotchooseputdirection. HAINannualRV141.625% doesnotremove standardputK1/.37 maximum2.7027xpayout. ZUMZclosed16.71 belowSMA18.02175 beforeAH13.925, but fallalreadyoccurred. GRAL77.56 nearSMA77.2225/ADR4.4487; affordableK40P.35 requires48.8783%fall, which indicatorvolatilitydoesnotestablish. SRRK55.67 day+1.9224%, nearestK55put3.70/call4.30 cost370/430, beyondcap. EPM3.84 day+4.0650%; cheapK5C.03 requires30.9896%rise. ACB3.73 andSNDL1.34 belowSMA3.891/1.34875; verifieddatedeventmissing. Validity: technicalregimes are context, not8eventedge; counterexample: pricedbinaryevent dwarfs normalADR. No stops/targetsreset because noholdings; no technicalruletraded. Data https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; option_contracts.

HITI Oct16 K2.5 call/put close .31/.18 (Sep9); underlying2.555 throughSep10 19:20UTC. N9 issuer-dated AMC earnings: directional break-even +9.98043%/-9.19765%, coverage1/9=11.111% each (<40%); medianabs close5.494505%, medianabs gap2.34375%. Thresholds exceed close median by4.485925/3.703146pp, so no hold-through exception. Recent put .16 still1/9 at8.414873%. Intrinsic-only mean payoff .166696/.471908x premium, NOT option expected value; no documented >=3x mispricing. Premises: completed Sep9close2.57 exceeds SMA20 2.479 and SMA50 2.3148; RSI14 Wilder60.1984, ATR14 .0859326, annualRV20 .357765, 20sessionreturn+9.8291%. Prior20session range2.305–2.70. Combining indicators describes upward trend with positive momentum, not measured option edge. Delayed Sep10 2.555 below Sep9close, still above averages. Call intrinsic breakeven2.81 above recent2.70 high; put2.32 near2.305 low. Counterexample: earnings could break either range; untested levels cannot replace N9coverage. No indicator-selected variant traded or claimed validated. Arithmetic is descriptive, trading inference unsound without independent option history. Primary date https://hightideinc.com/high-tide-to-announce-third-fiscal-quarter-2026-financial-results/; daily SIP bars2022–Sep9 for indicators, Sep10partial excluded.