Stats

Edge test: ten consecutive issuer-scheduled HITI AMC earnings March2024–June2026, 926 SIP adjustment=all daily bars; release-close to next-session-close median absolute4.700378%. Sep11S2.53, Oct16C2.5 .21Sep11/P2.5 .16Sep10 plus assumed .05/share roundtrip costs require +9.090909%/-9.486166%; each1/10=10%, below40%. Mean mapped intrinsic .213531/.571515 times premium is not actual option expected payoff; no documented3x payout. Aug25issuer quote 'after financial markets close on Monday, September 14, 2026' https://hightideinc.com/high-tide-to-announce-third-fiscal-quarter-2026-financial-results/ ; Oct16expiry32dayslater, defaultSep11RTHexitpassed, noholdexception (hurdles above median4.390531/4.785788pp). Sources option_contracts and https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/option-bars . 1. NumPyseed91308 bootstrap5selectedtrainingcallreturns,20opportunities,20000paths,$102.12startingcash,$25fixedall-in scaled exposure, stopnewfundingbelow25. BaselinefinalP5/50/95$12.4791/30.7172/104.2191;94.36%losingseries,47.425%below25,medianmaxDD74.862%. $10coststress$2.23905/15.98905/24.73905;100%loss,99.875%below25,medianDD84.3429%. 2. These permit fractional scaling ofhistoricalwholecontracts and are scenarios, not executableticketforecasts orindependent20eventhistory. Assumptioniid ignoreschangingliquidity, preannouncements andregime; same empiricaltailsretained. Noextra inferredcatastropheprobability inserted. Currentcall meannegative implies long-only halfKelly0; putN1cannotidentify win/lossodds, noKellysizeassigned. 3. Counterexample unseenlargewin couldturnexpectancy, but absent documentedprobability doesnotjustify size. Premiumcap boundsone loss; repeated affordabletickets can depletebook. Atactualfund102.12,3/5%accountcaps25.5297/42.5495,absolute51.0594andmax3open; costsshrinkremainingrunway. Monthly$349.01shortfall excluded.

Edge test:10 consecutive issuer-scheduled AMC earnings Mar2024–Jun2026, fresh926 SIP adjustment=all dailybars, release-close to next-session-close medianabsolute16.578014%. Sep11S2.95; Oct16C2.5 catalog.50Sep10 plus.05/share assumedroundtripcost requires+3.389831%,4/10; C5.05Sep10 requires+72.881356%,0/10; P2.5.12Sep11 requires-21.016949%,2/10. C2.5mappedmeanintrinsic1.109296xpremium excludesresidualtime,notactualoptionEV; no documented3xexpectedpayoff. Sep2issuer quote 'after market close on Wednesday, September 23, 2026' https://investors.stitchfix.com/news-events/press-releases/news-details/2026/Stitch-Fix-Announces-Date-for-Fourth-Quarter-and-Full-Fiscal-Year-2026-Financial-Results-and-Conference-Call/default.aspx . ExpiryOct16+23days; defaultSep22RTHexit. Historical primaryURLs anddatequotes in R91306eventobservations, re-openedthisrun. Sources option_contracts SFIX; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/option-bars . 1. NumPyseed913061,20kpaths/20opportunities,startingfund102.12; hypotheticalconstant25USDall-inexposure scales sixT3trainingnetreturns; stopfundingbelow25. Thispermitsfractionalscaling andisnot a quoted20premium+5costwholecontract. .05totalcostbaseline median123.234983,losingseries27.24%,medianDD19.584802%;.10costmedian24.828333,losing99.265%,DD75.832820%,51.66%cashbelowticket. 2. Separate91306iid/circularblock3bootstraprowsrecorded; N1holdoutbootstrapdegenerate272.05terminal/0losscannotforecastcertainty. Floatingnearzeroreturns distortlossstreak;discardthatmetric. 3. Addhypotheticalfullall-inlossprobabilityq tobaseline: qbreak-even4.333333%,58.770047%chance>=1in20iid opportunities. q5/10%median98.931847/72.520697,losing51.56/71.655%;assumptionsnotestimatedodds. Sixmarkreturns yield196.918696USDhalfKelly,farabovefund102.12andnormal25.5297risk, demonstrating missingtail/selection instability;not liveKelly. Currenteventintrinsicstudy3118halfKelly3.21664USDusesdifferentholdthroughpayoffandcannotbecombined. 4. Counterexample:positiveunobservedtailcouldimproveexpectancy; baselineincludesallobservedwinners. Neitherfavorablebootstrapnoroperator349.01shortfall licensesrisk.

Edge test:10 consecutive issuer-scheduled AMC earnings Mar2024-Jun2026 reverified against primary URLs in observations27176–85 and926 fresh SIP adjustmentall daily bars. Release-close to next-session-close median absolute16.578014%; Sep11S2.95 Oct16C2.5 close.50Sep10 plusassumed.05/share totalcost requires+3.389831%,4/10; P2.5 .12Sep11 requires-21.016949%,2/10; C5 .05Sep10 requires+72.881356%,0/10. No documented actual option expected payoff>=3xpremium. IssuerSep2 quote 'after market close on Wednesday, September 23, 2026' https://investors.stitchfix.com/news-events/press-releases/news-details/2026/Stitch-Fix-Announces-Date-for-Fourth-Quarter-and-Full-Fiscal-Year-2026-Financial-Results-and-Conference-Call/default.aspx . Oct16expiry23dayslater; defaultSep22RTHexit; no current position. Source option_contracts SFIX; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/option-bars . 1. Research stress only:20k IID paths20opportunities starting102.12cash, buy hypothetical50premium+5cost call only ifcash>=55, settle mapped eventintrinsic; no reuse of residualvalue or actual historicaloptionfills. Seed91304: cashP5/median/P95=6.018747/47.12/482.828600;80.73%paths belowinitial,median peakdrawdown60.59954%,average7.2077tickets. Positions would violatecurrent5%risk; simulation demonstrates granularity, doesnot authorize it or forecast actualruin. 2. Atp.50 hypothetical3Rgross target2.00 needs52.542373%intrinsicstockrise,0/10,max44.347826%. ResidualBlackScholes sensitivity22daysafterSep24,assumed4%rate/no dividends/IV40,80,120,200%: meanvalues.577467,.623285,.687721,.849903,all below1.50needed3xpremium;0/10targets2.00 across grid,max1.87419at200%IV. No IV fitted from staleclose. 3. Counterexample: futureearnings jump can exceedsample and residualIVcanexceedgrid. No primarycash evidence supplies those probabilities. Treat quantitative tail requirements as monitoring questions; no defended live target or stop adopted.

Edge test: nine consecutive fiscal earnings Q3FY24–Q3FY26 (May2024–May2026), SIP adjustment=all prior-close to morning-release-day close, median absolute5.245902%, range -11.810013% to+23.8%. AtSep11S7.39 Oct16P5 .05Sep11 plusassumed.05/sharecost needs33.694181%fall,0/9; P7.5 .69 needs8.525034%,1/9 and69USD>51.0594absolute; C5 2.45Sep8 needs+1.488498%,5/9 but245USD>102.12fund and42.5495convictionrisk. No documentedactualoptionexpectedpayoff>=3xpremium. Aug26issuer quote 'before the U.S. market open on September 16, 2026' https://investors.luxexperience.com/news/news-details/2026/LuxExperience-Announces-Fourth-Quarter-and-Full-Fiscal-Year-2026-Earnings-Release-and-Conference-Call-Participating-in-Upcoming-Investor-Conference/default.aspx . ExpiryOct16+30days; defaultSep15RTHexit, noholdexception foraffordableput becausehurdle exceedsmedian28.448279pp. History originalURLs and bars26862–89; ISOdatesinobservationnotes normalized, notverbatimissuerdateformat. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; option_contracts LUXE. 1. NumPyseed91302,20000paths,20opportunities,startingfund102.12,one5USDpremium+5assumedroundtripcostticket; stopfundingbelow10. Empiricalnine-moveP5intrinsicstresshaszeropayoutineveryevent,terminal2.12after10tickets,97.9240%drawdown,halfKelly0. DegeneratebootstrapdoesNOTestimateactualoptiontailprobability,confidenceorresidualtimevalue. 2. Attackzero-tailassumption: insertpurelyhypothetical50%stockcollapse(pays1.305/share) withprobabilities5/10/15%,zerointrinsicotherwise. Grosspayoff1.305/2.610/3.915xpremium; meanterminal54.4802/151.9174/274.0515;lossprob78.335/48.445/26.530%; theseareassumption-sensitivitiesNOTforecasts. 3. Need>=11.4943%catastropheprobfor3xgrosspremium (22.9885%for3xallin); unobservedandnotdocumented. Hypotheticaloptiontarget.20,4xpremium/3Rgross,requires35.0474%underlyingfallintrinsically;0/9,butactualtargetoddsunknown. Noadoptedstop/targetorliveKellysize. Fullpremiumrisk.58755%equity doesnotmakeanegative/unknownedgequalified.

Edge test: corrected10 consecutive issuer-dated AMC earnings Mar2024–Jun2026, daily SIP release-close to next-session close, median absolute16.578014%. Sep11S2.95, Oct16P2.5 .12Sep11/C2.5 .50Sep10 plus assumed .05/share costs require -21.016949%/+3.389831%, covered2/10(20%)/4/10(40%). Callpassescoveragebut50USDpremium exceeds42.5495 convictionrisk; even45USDintrinsicexceedscap. Putfails40%; no documentedexpectedactualoptionpayoff>=3xpremium. IssuerSep2 quote 'after market close on Wednesday, September 23, 2026' https://investors.stitchfix.com/news-events/press-releases/news-details/2026/Stitch-Fix-Announces-Date-for-Fourth-Quarter-and-Full-Fiscal-Year-2026-Financial-Results-and-Conference-Call/default.aspx . Oct16expiry23dayslater; defaultSep22RTHexit. Sources option_contracts and https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars /data/option-bars; historicalsources recorded26537–46. OriginalN8preserved. 1. NumPyseed913,20kIIDpaths,20opportunities,startingfund102.12; one12premium+5assumedcostwholecontract, stopfundingbelow17cash. Maptenstockeventmovestointrinsic,zeroresidualvalue. Meanintrinsic.767735xpremium,netallinmean-.458069R; 5/50/95cash.12/3.937398/102.644064,medianDD96.2011%,loss94.795%,mean10.86275tickets. Thisisdeliberateintrinsicstress, NOTestimatedactualoptionEV/ruinorpre-eventexitforecast. ConcaveloghalfKelly0inscenario;actualKellyunknown. 2. Hypotheticalputtarget.48(4xpremium,3Rgrossfullpremiumprofit)requires31.5254%stockfallintrinsically,1/10events; noactualtargethitodds. Hypotheticalcall2.00requires52.5424%rise,abovehistoricalmax44.3478%; residualtimecouldimproveitbutnotdocumented. Neitherhypotheticaltargetisdefendedasorder. Three17allintickets49.94%funddespite6.0%account illustratesgranularity. Noorder.

Edge test: nine issuer-dated AMC earnings Feb2024–Jun2026, SIP daily release-close to next-session close; median absolute5.543964%, mean-0.908716%. Sep11 S39.02, Oct16 C45 .30/P35 .40 catalog closes plus assumed.05/share roundtrip reserve require+16.222450%/-11.455664%, covered0/9 and1/9 (11.11%), below40%. Without reserve put2/9. No documented expected actual-option payout>=3xpremium. Oct16expiry31daysafterissuerSep2 schedule: 'Tuesday, September 15, 2026, U.S. Time, after the market closes.' https://investors.trip.com/node/15681/pdf ; defaultSep14RTHexit. Hurdles exceedmedian10.678486/5.911700pp, noholdexception. Sources option_contracts and https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . CorrectedN9 includesMay19 2025; August26 2024hourunverified sensitivityN10median6.067764%,0/10C1/10P. OldN8/S38.7/.32C/.48Pforecast retained separately. 1. NumPyseed91208,100000paths,20sequentialtickets,3%currentequityall-incost eachticket, iidresampling9historicalearningsmoves mappedtocurrentstrikeintrinsic. Includesfixed.05costbutexcludesremaining31daytimevalue,IVandbidask; continuoussizingnotfeasiblewholecontractexecution. Scenarioonly, notforecastactualoptionreturns. 2. C45meanintrinsic0xpremiumandall9intrinsiczero;P35mean.361051xpremium,max2.191156x. OptimizedexpectedloggridhalfKelly0both; authorizedqty0. Call20ticketterminalmedian-45.620566%,putmedian-35.189597%,putp5-42.344860%,profit.006%,mediandrawdown35.221370%. IIDassumptionunderstatesclusteredmissrisk; nocalibratedactualstop/targetodds. 3. Account850.99,fund102.12;normal3%premium25.5297,highconviction5%42.5495,absolute6%51.0594,max3open. C30=3.525306%account/P40=4.700408%,above normal andnohighconvictioncase. Threecallticketswith5dollarcosteach105>fund;threeputs135>fund. Atmost2suchcashfundedpositions,butactual0. Profitshortfall349.01nevermodelinput.

Edge test: ten issuer-dated scheduled AMC earnings March2024–June2026, daily pre-release close to next-session close, median absolute4.700378%, signed mean-3.027709%. At Sep11 S2.53, Oct16 K2.5 call .21(Sep11catalog) /put .16(Sep10catalog, stale) plus assumed .05/share roundtrip costs require +9.090909%/-9.486166%; both1/10=10%, below40%. Old frozenN9 remains1/9,median5.494505%; preserve it separately. No documented3x expectedoptionpayoff. Source option_contracts and https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; /data/option-bars. Issuer Aug25 https://hightideinc.com/high-tide-to-announce-third-fiscal-quarter-2026-financial-results/ says 'after financial markets close on Monday, September 14, 2026'. Oct16expiry32daysafter; defaultSep11RTHexit already elapsed. Hurdles exceednewmedian4.390531/4.785788pp, noholdexception. Closes are not executable asks; intrinsic is not actualoptionPnL. 1. NumPyseed91206,100000pathseachside/dependencemode. Map10historicalsignedmoves tocurrentK2.5intrinsic, subtractfixedpremium+.05cost, simulate3sequential1contractticketsfrom102.12fund. IIDeventresamplingversusperfectlycommoneventdrawexposesdependence; latterstylizedcorrelationstress,notthreeconcurrentHITIorders. Fullresidual32dayoptionvalue/IV/spreadsabsent: scenarioNOTforecastactualoptionloss. 2. Callmeanintrinsic .213531xpremium/.172467xallincost,max1.588571x;putmean.571515x/.435440x,max2.155093x. BothgridoptimizedhalfKelly0. CallIIDterminalmedian30.538919,p5=24.12,p95=63.898919,profit.112%,losshalfbook72.988%;commoneventlosshalf89.94%. PutIIDmedian63.516326,p5=40.184257,p95=102.016094,profit4.567%,losshalf22.568%;common49.927%. Thesearemodelprobabilitiesonly,nottradingodds. 3. Fullpremium3Rnetprofittargetneeds4xpremiumbeforecost:call.84/put.64,or.89/.69includingassumed.05totalcost. Intrinsicmappingreachesneither0/10; actualoptiontarget/stopoddsUNKNOWN. Worstthreecallpremiumloss63plus15cost=78,76.38%book/9.17%account; normalonepremium21=2.47%accountbutthreecorrelatedsmallticketscanconsumeallocation. Fund102.12,account850.99;normal3%25.5297,conviction5%42.5495,absolute6%51.0594,max3/fundcap. Approvedsize0; monthly349.01shortfallnotinput.

Edge test: 11 issuer-dated morning earnings Jan2024–Jul2026, US ADR daily prior-close to release-close; median absolute5.864627%, range-8.474903% to+11.444479%. Sep11S11.13, Oct30C13 .45 needs+21.293801%,P9.5 .27 needs-17.520216%,including assumed.05/share roundtrip costs: both0/11 (and0/11openinggaps), below40%. CatalogNov20C13 .49Sep10 ->.63Sep11 exceeds51.0594premiumcap; Oct30P10 .52 alsoovercap. No documented3xexpectedoptionpayoff. ExpiryOct30eightdaysafterissuer '22 October 2026'; defaultOct21RTHexit, noholdexception becausehurdlesexceedmedian15.429174/11.655589pp. Sources https://www.nokia.com/newsroom/nokia-corporations-financial-calendar-for-2026/ ; option_contracts ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/option-bars . Closesnotexecutableasks; intrinsicmappingnotactualoptionPnL. 1. numpyseed91204,100000iidresamples11signedmoves. MapS11.13todaysK9.5put:all11intrinsicvalueszero;hypothetical3sequential27dollarpremiumsplus5dollarcosteachon144.67bookend48.67,stress10dollarcostends33.67. Loss100%INSIDETHISEMPIRICALINTRINSICMODEL; notforecastactualoptionlossbecauseeightdayresidualvalue,IV,non-eventdriftandunseentailsomitted. Degeneratebootstrapexposeslackofobservedtail,notcertainty. 2. Fullpremiumisrisk:normal3%account25.5297,conviction5%42.5495,absolute6%51.0594,max3positions/fund144.67;three27premiums81=55.99%bookbeforefeesandviolate normalcap. ModelhalfKelly0withnegativeexpectednet;approvedsize0. No3Rtargetdefensiblefromfailedmodel. A3Rnetprofit/fullpremiumtargetrequiresgross>=4xpremiumbeforecosts,not3x. 3. Countercaseunobservedlargejump/residualvaluemaypay;roughguesspermissiondoesnotwaivemandate40%or3xgate. Profitshortfall349.01notprobabilityinput.

Edge test: CAG nine issuer-dated morning earnings Jul2024–Jul2026 median absolute2.064410%; Sep11S14.60, Oct9C15.5 catalog.35Sep10/currenttrade.20Sep11 requires+8.904110%/+7.876712% incl assumed.05cost,0/9 both. P14.5 catalog.44 requires-4.041096%,2/9; current.60 requires-5.136986%,1/9 and60premium>51.0594absolute cap. LW eight issuer-dated morning events Jul2024–Jul2026 median13.153864%; S47.85,Oct16C57.5 catalog.35/current.38 requires+21.003135/+21.065831%,0/8. P40 catalog.50/current.55 requires-17.554859/-17.659352%,3/8(37.5%) and55premium>cap. Mean mapped intrinsic LW P40 1.498726USD/share =2.724957x currentpremium,2.497877x assumedallincost; NOT actual optionexpectancy. No40%pass or documented3xexpectedpayoff. LW omittedOct1 2024 due releasehour ambiguity; addingOct2reaction yields3/9 andmedian10.017371%,alsofails. Dates: CAG Aug31issuer 'Wednesday, September 30, 2026' morning before09:30ETQ&A https://www.conagrabrands.com/news-room/news-conagra-brands-to-release-fiscal-2027-first-quarter-earnings-on-september-30-2026-prn-122962 ; LW Sep8issuer 'October 6, 2026' approximately08ETrelease/09ETcall https://investors.lambweston.com/news-events/news-releases . Expiries9/10daysafter; default exitsSep29/Oct5RTH. Historical originals recorded25518+ and25563+; sources option_contracts plus https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars and /data/option-bars. Closes not executableasks. 1. numpyseed912 iidresample9signedCAGreturns,3hypothetical49dollarall-inP14.5tickets on178.71book, mappedintrinsicatS14.6. Meanterminal107.7455,88.596%losingseries,47.218%all3lose,p5terminal40.0082; eachticketabove5%accountcap evenoldprice. 2. This frozenOLD.44+.05costscenario isdeliberatelynotcurrent.60premium, andnotactualoptionforecast; excludesresidualtime, changingIV, spreads, correlatedreturns and15minexits. CAGnaivehalfKelly0 because negativeexpectednetpayoff. LWcurrentP40syntheticintrinsichalfKelly12.1892%ofriskcapital, but37.5%gatefails/premium55>cap: approvedsize0. Counterexampleresidualvaluemayimprovepayoff; uncertaintycannotwaiveentrygate.

Edge test: BB frozen12 issuer-dated earnings Sep2023-Jun2026 median absolute9.987505%; Sep11 S7.67/Oct2C8 .45 plus .05 assumed costs requires+10.821382%,4/12; P7.5 .41 requires-8.213820%,3/12. HITI N9 median5.494505%; Sep11 S2.53/Oct16C2.5 .21 requires+9.090909%,1/9. GIS N9 June2024-Jul2026 median3.063603%; Sep10 S35.96 Oct16C40 .38/P32.5 .50 costed hurdles+12.430478/-11.151279%,0/9 each. No40% pass or documented3x expected payout. Closes not executable prices; intrinsic proxy excludes residual time. Dates: BB issuer Sep10 'September 24, 2026, at 8:00 a.m. ET' https://www.accessnewswire.com/newsroom/en/computers-technology-and-internet/blackberry-to-announce-fiscal-second-quarter-2027-results-on-sept-1216954 ; HITI Aug25 'after financial markets close on Monday, September 14, 2026' https://hightideinc.com/high-tide-to-announce-third-fiscal-quarter-2026-financial-results/ ; GIS Aug26 'September 23, 2026' and 'issued that morning' https://investors.generalmills.com/press-releases/press-release-details/2026/General-Mills-to-Webcast-Fiscal-2027-First-Quarter-Earnings-Results-on-September-23-2026/default.aspx . Expiry8/32/23 days after respectively; default exits Sep23/Sep11/Sep22 RTH. Sources option_contracts, https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars and /data/option-bars, historical issuer URLs in event observations. 1. NumPyseed912,20000paths,20sequentialeventopportunities; mapfrozenBBsignedmoves toOct2C8intrinsic atfixedS7.67, divideby.50allin (.45premium+.05assumedcost), residualtimezero. Stopfundingwhencash<50; noleverage. IID andtripletrepeateddraws stressdependence. Allsample terminalmediancash29.0595iid/28.71triplet from178.71; lossprob90.695/87.325%, mediandrawdown83.9349%both. First8iid95.365%loss; reusedlast4iid71.47%. These deliberately omitoptiontimevalue andpre-eventexit; NOTactualforecast/expectedpayoff orcalibrated ruinprobability. 2. One50allinticket27.98%fund; three150=83.94%fund eventhoughaccountpercentage17.63%under18. Ticket45premium5.288%account exceedsstricter5%convictionbudget42.5495; nofullsizedentry. 3. Intrinsic-onlyexpectednetreturnnegative, hence concave-log halfKelly=0 inthisscenario; actualKellyunidentifiedwithoutoptionoutcomes. Cannot substitute40%stockcoverage forwinprobabilityatanoption3Rtarget. NoMonteCarlotargethitoddsfabricated.

Frozen edge: BB Sep10 S7.54; Oct2C8 close.40 requires +11.405836%, covers3/12 (25%); Oct2P7 close.32 requires -11.405836%, covers2/12 (16.67%). Twelve consecutive issuer-dated earnings Sep2023-Jun2026, pre-newsclose to firstpostclose, medianabsolute9.987505%; first8train,last4holdout. Neither current40% gate nor documented3xexpectedpayout passes. Issuer Sep10 says 'Thursday, September 24, 2026, at 8:00 a.m. ET.': https://www.accessnewswire.com/newsroom/en/computers-technology-and-internet/blackberry-to-announce-fiscal-second-quarter-2027-results-on-sept-1216954 . Oct2expiry8dayslater; defaultSep23RTHexit, hurdle exceedsmedian1.418331pp. Sources: https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; option_contracts Sep10 closes; historical issuer quotes/sources observations24113–24126 and24585–24596. 1. CounterfactualEuropeanBS calls,r=dividend0,initial22calendardaystoOct2. SolveIVfromsingleSep10markandS (notobservedIV):.40=>79.2860%,.15=>43.4344%. Choosebaseline30/50/80%ASSUMED; eventvariance=initialIV²*T-baseline²*T mustbenonnegative. Preserveeventvariancebeforeannouncement,removeatfirstpostclose. Onepricecannotidentifyeventandbaselinevariance; Americanexercise/microstructureunmodeled. 2. Rescaleeachhistorical10-intervalstockpathfrom7.54; remainingdays22,21,18,17,16,15,14,11,10,9,8. Defaultprior-releasesessionist8forAMC,t9forBMO; holdthroughist10. NoAMCevent-daysale mislabeleddefault. Targetdailyclose>=4premium+.05 gives3Rnetofassumedcostagainstpremiumrisk; halfpremiummarkisdrawdowndiagnostic, NOTanorderstop. 3. Current.40 withbaseline30/50%: preexit3Rtarget0/12; post1/12; premeanterminal/all-incost1.01497/.928319x,post1.22854/1.27384x. Cheap.15/baseline30%: pretarget2/12,post5/12; meanterminal1.15161x/2.76422x,postmedian.906062x andhalfpremiumbreach8/12. Othercheapbaselinesinfeasible, notsilentlyfloored;current80%alsoinfeasible. 4. Thesearepath-scenariofrequencies, notexecutableexitoddsorhistoricaloptionbacktest. AssumedIVdecaycanflipmean; calibrationtomarknotvalidation. No3xexpectedpayoutdocumentedandnoholdthroughoverridefromthismodel.

Frozen edge: BB Sep10 S7.54; Oct2C8 close.40 requires +11.405836%, covers3/12 (25%); Oct2P7 close.32 requires -11.405836%, covers2/12 (16.67%). Twelve consecutive issuer-dated earnings Sep2023-Jun2026, pre-newsclose to firstpostclose, medianabsolute9.987505%; first8train,last4holdout. Neither current40% gate nor documented3xexpectedpayout passes. Issuer Sep10 says 'Thursday, September 24, 2026, at 8:00 a.m. ET.': https://www.accessnewswire.com/newsroom/en/computers-technology-and-internet/blackberry-to-announce-fiscal-second-quarter-2027-results-on-sept-1216954 . Oct2expiry8dayslater; defaultSep23RTHexit, hurdle exceedsmedian1.418331pp. Sources: https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; option_contracts Sep10 closes; historical issuer quotes/sources observations24113–24126 and24585–24596. 1. NumPyseed9110600,30kpaths/scenario,20sequentialcounterfactualone-contracttickets. Samplehistoricaleventintrinsicvalues100max(7.54*(1+r)-8,0); zeroresidualtimeisliquidationstress, notactualoptionforecast. Initialfund178.71/otherbooks672.28fixed;premiumgatedat5%updatedaccount,fullcostmustfitfundcash. Deductpremium+.05/shareASSUMEDcost. Simulationforceshypotheticaltickets despitecurrentKelly0; it isnotrecommendedexecution. 2. Current.40mark/.45total: iidall12 medianending104.65334,5–95%88.71–127.29315;97.58667%losefundmoney,96.64333%cannotcomplete20 (cap/fundingstop, notbankruptcy),mean4.60373tickets. 3. Hypothetical.15mark/.20total: iidmedian364.55664,5–95%19.66873–713.14028,loss16.35%,medianDD33.57395%. RepeatingeachsampledoutcomethreetimesmodelsSERIALdependence, notthreeBBpositions: median314.08480,5–95%6.10911–963.60501,loss37.28667%,medianDD54.10603%. Train-onlycheaploss27.00667%iid/46.73667%cluster; fullsampleoptimismisnotrobust. 4. Logutilityoptimizationofintrinsicnetpayoffs givescurrenthalfKelly0; hypotheticalcheapall12halfKelly8.09373%,train5.07705%,beforemodeluncertainty; capatnormal3%25.5297absentconviction,5%42.5495conviction,6%51.0594absolute. One.15premium=$15,1.76265%account; plusreserve$20,2.35020%. Three$20costs=$60,33.57395%book/7.05061%account, showingbookconcentrationdespiteaccountcap. Noindependenceassumedandnoorder.

Edge test frozen Sep11: BB S7.54, Oct2C8 close.40 requires+11.405836%, covers3/12 (25%); Oct2P7 close.32 requires-11.405836%, covers2/12 (16.67%). Twelve consecutive quarterly releases Sep2023-Jun2026, pre-newsclose to firstpost-newsclose, medianabsolute9.987505%; first8 C2/P1, last4 C1/P1. Neither40%gate nor documented3xexpectedoptionpayout passes. Oct2expiry8daysafter Sep24event; defaultSep23RTHexit, hurdleexceedsmedian1.418331pp so noholdthrough exception. Sources: issuer-dated event observations24113–24126, https://investors.blackberry.com/ ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars and /data/option-bars. 1. Fixed historical close moves are applied to7.54; value Oct2 contracts with8days remaining using European Black-Scholes, rate/dividend0 and assumed post-event annual IV30/50/80/120%. This is sensitivity, not observed IV, American executable value, or a calibrated forecast; the pre-event stock path is omitted. 2. Call mean gross payout .7999/.9036/1.1211/1.4841 times .40 premium; put .2878/.3628/.5480/.8956 times .32. No scenario gives3xmean or a4xsingle-event gross target. 3. NumPy20k paths,max20 whole-contract tickets,178.71fundcash and672.28otherbooks fixed,1.30assumed roundtrip fee, each new premium<=5% current equity. Intrinsic-only liquidation yields halfKelly0 both. Call93.815% cannot complete20tickets due to risk/funding gates; median finalcash106.6357 and funddrawdown46.2201%. Put100% cannotcomplete20; medianfinal16.6977/drawdown90.6565%. These are deliberately zero-residual stress results, not ruin probabilities or actual expectancy. 4. Strongest countercase is persistent high post-event volatility and pre-event rally; neither is measured with historical option executions. Cheap-threshold scenario is recorded separately, not permission to substitute today's larger premium.

Edge test: PLAY S8.17 Oct16C10 .40/P7 .50 require +27.294982%/-20.440636%,0/12 each, medianabs10.624339%; VRA S3.05 Oct16P2.5 .10 requires-21.311475%,0/12,medianabs10.350471%; SFIX S2.85 Oct16P2.5 .15 requires-17.543860%,2/8,medianabs16.578014%; TCOM S38.70 Oct16C45 .32/P35 .48 require+17.105943%/-10.801034%,0/8 and2/8,medianabs4.590973%. All fail40%; no documented actual-option expectedpayout>=3x. Sources: issuer schedules in event observations and https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars and /data/option-bars; catalog closes datedSep9 checked withSep10 delayed bars. 1. Map historic eventclose returns tocurrentS; putintrinsic=max(K-Snext,0), dividepremium; residual timevalue unmodeled, so this is a stressfloor NOT expected traded-option price. 2. NumPy seed911,10000iid20ticketpaths,3%equitypremiumcompounded; no optionfees or serialdependence, no forecasts beyond empiricalsample. [{"symbol":"PLAY","N":12,"mean_intrinsic_multiple":0.11141982422518588,"max_intrinsic_multiple":0.9413206521739124,"coverage":0,"halfKelly_floor":0,"paths":10000,"tickets":20,"premium_pct":3,"median_return":-41.95744298289101,"p05_return":-44.955033349458404,"profit_odds":0,"median_max_drawdown":41.95744298289101},{"symbol":"TCOM","N":8,"mean_intrinsic_multiple":0.48520541234206205,"max_intrinsic_multiple":2.408972282217414,"coverage":2,"halfKelly_floor":0,"paths":10000,"tickets":20,"premium_pct":3,"median_return":-28.24022154569934,"p05_return":-38.907738008078596,"profit_odds":0.0073,"median_max_drawdown":29.4653494506684},{"symbol":"VRA","N":12,"mean_intrinsic_multiple":0.028368794326241547,"max_intrinsic_multiple":0.34042553191489855,"coverage":0,"halfKelly_floor":0,"paths":10000,"tickets":20,"premium_pct":3,"median_return":-44.46945633168682,"p05_return":-45.62056570732529,"profit_odds":0,"median_max_drawdown":44.46945633168682},{"symbol":"SFIX","N":8,"mean_intrinsic_multiple":0.9535745761978892,"max_intrinsic_multiple":5.165333333333332,"coverage":2,"halfKelly_floor":0,"paths":10000,"tickets":20,"premium_pct":3,"median_return":-6.249441441107351,"p05_return":-31.98054166018457,"profit_odds":0.3921,"median_max_drawdown":20.17009498600003}] 3. Gridlogutility fullKelly0 for all floor distributions; halfKelly0. SFIX has one5.1653xgross scenario but mean.95357x, insufficient documented3xexpectedpayout. Countercase residualtimevalue raises actualreturns, but magnitude unverified. Tail dependence and capital depletion could worsen stress. Current allocation0; account absolute premiumcap51.0594, normal25.5297, conviction42.5495; three51.0594premiums exactly18%, so use strictlyless if absolute caps ever bind.

Edge test: MLKN Oct16 P17.5 reference .28 Sep9, S20.80 Sep10: requires -17.211538%; eight issuer-dated earnings close moves, median absolute10.745876%, coverage1/8=12.5% (<40%), intraday lows also1/8. HITI frozen N9 medianabs5.494505%, C.31/P.16 atS2.56 require+9.765625/-8.593750%; closecoverage1/9each, putdaily-low4/9 is hindsight path only. Neither documents expected optionpayoff>=3x premium. Premises: map8historicclosemoves toS20.8 thenP17.5intrinsic=max(17.5-Snext,0); divideby.28premium, subtract1. Sevenzerointrinsicoutcomesandone4.839577xpayout =>mean.604947x. This is stressfloor, notexpectedactualOct16optionprice. NumPyseed911,10000iidbootstrap20ticketpaths,3%equitypremiumcompounded; medianreturn-28.12351%,5thpercentile-45.62057%,profitodds9.38%. Fractions0–6% in.01ppsteps optimizingmeanloggrowth, halfKelly0. Smallselectedsamplemissesunseentails/regimedependence; transactioncostsandresidualtimevalueexcluded. Counterexample: remaining24+daystimevaluecan materiallychangeactualreturns, so simulationdoesnotproveoptionfairvalue. Currentgate1/8failsindependently, allocation0; no calibratedpositiveKellyestimateavailable. Contract28dollars=3.2903%account exceedsnormal3%25.5297; onlyhighconviction5%42.5495couldadmitone, and convictionnotestablished. A quarterofacappedwholecontractisnotpurchasable. 3Rnettargetwouldbe4*.28=1.12optionprice; intrinsicrequiresstock<=16.38(-21.25%), only1/8historicalcloses, noforecasttargetplaced. HITIbootstrapcoverage100000resamples1.195%reach40% isfrequencyuncertainty, notoptiontradeodds. Sources option_contracts; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; issuerMLKNdates23055/23066–73.

HITI Oct16 K2.5 call/put close .31/.18 (Sep9); underlying2.555 throughSep10 19:20UTC. N9 issuer-dated AMC earnings: directional break-even +9.98043%/-9.19765%, coverage1/9=11.111% each (<40%); medianabs close5.494505%, medianabs gap2.34375%. Thresholds exceed close median by4.485925/3.703146pp, so no hold-through exception. Recent put .16 still1/9 at8.414873%. Intrinsic-only mean payoff .166696/.471908x premium, NOT option expected value; no documented >=3x mispricing. Premises: scale each of9 historical next-session stock close returns to S2.555, compute call max(Snext-2.5,0) or put max(2.5-Snext,0), divide by referencepremium and subtract1. This is intrinsic liquidation floor with time value discarded, NOT actual30+day remaining option price, expiry return or calibrated forecast. NumPy seed910,10000 iid bootstrap paths of20tickets,3% currentequity premium each ticket, compounded. Search fractions0–6% in.01pp steps maximizing meanloggrowth, thenhalf:0 for both. Intrinsic sample mean returns-83.3304%call/-52.8092%put; finite-sample bootstrap misses unseen tails and ignores cross-event dependence/costs. Median series returns-40.0481%/-27.7979%,5th percentile-44.3359%/-35.8266%; profit odds0%/.01%. Counterexample: residual timevalue could overturn these figures; thus these are rejection stress scenarios, not proof fair option value. Empirical mandatedcoverage11.1% and missing optionvalue evidence independently reject, so size0. One actualcall$31=3.643% equity, put$18=2.115%; fullpremium absoluteceiling$51.0594, normal3%$25.5297, highconviction5%$42.5495. Primary event https://hightideinc.com/high-tide-to-announce-third-fiscal-quarter-2026-financial-results/; data and nine primary history dates in statistical analysis2301.