Stats

CAG23actualissuer earnings dates frozen from2021–Jul2026. PrimaryT5/ATR1/3 model has training17 p(win)=52.941%,averagewin1.325795%,averageloss1.995905%; heldout6wins4butaveragewin.559145%,loss3.051251%,mean-.644320%,bootstrap95%meanCI[-2.094866,.587018]%. Sixobservationsaretoo fewforreliabletailodds. Training simpleindicatorOLS(return~intercept+mom20+SMA20distance): correlationmom/SMA=.781325,mom/return=.069265,R²=.063501,N17. Coefficientsintercept-.00418587,mom-.07371741,SMAdistance.26760662,returnsasfractions; descriptive fit, no robust significance ortradefilterclaimed. Relatedsignalsarenotindependentvotes;17points/3parametersveryunstable. Fundactualquery_trades: MIRM-.439321%,IONS-2.842420%,RARE-45.860062%;N3win0%,mean-16.380601%,nowinningtradeaverageavailable. Twooperatorliquidationscensorintendedhorizon; cannotlabelthreepurestrategyfailuresorusezeroastruewinprobability. Wilson95%upperwinbound56.1506%. RAREfill13.98976vsstop24=41.7093%belowstop,actual6.44035Rprice loss relative1.84initialrisk; notarrivalpriceslippage. Sources runway:query_trades?fund=catalyst ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=CAG&feed=sip&adjustment=all ; primaryissuerlinksrecordedeachevent. Prior: calendaraloneunlikelyenough; evidencewouldchangeallocationifnewindependentcostedcohortmeanpositivewithdefensiblewin/lossanddatedentry. Financialshortfallnotanevidenceupdate.

Start state: $49.14 cash, no live lots or pending orders. Source runway:query_trades?fund=catalyst. Python recomputation of3 closed lots yields -$31.937258, win rate0%, mean return-16.380601%. RARE lost45.8601% or6.44035 times its intended stop risk; IONS and MIRM were operator liquidations, so their returns do not estimate natural strategy outcomes. Planned target/risk ratios were1.71739,1.40385,1.082 respectively, all below current3R mandate. Premises: (1) three losses provide no observed average win; (2) two censored exits distort expectancy; (3) one stop gap dominates dollar losses. Conclusion: no calibrated positive half-Kelly from this record; approved allocation0 until a separate valid setup passes. This is not proof every FDA run-up has negative expectancy. Countercase: early favorable approvals can produce upside, as today's SRRK announcement shows; that argues for modeling both tails and earlier news, not assuming the scheduled date bounds risk. All three historical lots were fractional, limiting off-hours exits. Entry arrival quotes and timestamps are unavailable, so do not call stop shortfall execution slippage. Current whole fund total loss would be5.77445% of account; a hypothetical50%gap loses2.88723%, independent of monthly revenue need.

1. Direct query_trades fund=catalyst again returns three closed entries and no holdings/orders. Prior exact ledger2679 remains unchanged: P&L-31.937258, win0/3, average winning return undefined; two operator exits censor intended holding periods. 2. RARE25.84entry/24stop/13.98976exit lost6.44035R. A stop is not a bound on loss. 3. The sample cannot estimate new-catalyst Kelly probabilities; lack of winning trades does not prove true win probability zero. Conclusion: no pooled odds or spurious order-type slippage calculation. Current gap-aware feasibility is fund49.14/account850.99; 50% fund-position gap2.8872% of account. Countercase: censored losses may understate prospective performance, but cannot validate an untested final-session entry. Source runway:query_trades?fund=catalyst ; prior measured figures2679, not a new sample.

Premises: (1) query_trades fund=catalyst returns three closed market entries, no open positions or pending orders. Computed entry-to-exit returns: MIRM -0.439321%, IONS -2.842420%, RARE -45.860062%; total fill-based P&L -31.937258 before separately charged system costs. Win rate 0/3; average win undefined. (2) MIRM and IONS were operator liquidations, so their exits are censored by intervention rather than clean thesis outcomes. (3) RARE realized -6.440348R using recorded stop24 and entry25.84; exit13.98976 was41.709333% below intended stop. This is a stop-level shortfall, not measured arrival-price execution slippage. Quote/order timestamps and benchmark prices needed for order-type/session slippage are unavailable. Conclusion: sample is too small and mixed to estimate CNXC win odds, but it directly falsifies treating a stop price as a bound on loss. Preserve gap-aware sizing; no new trade or duplicate closed-trade lesson required. Source runway:query_trades?fund=catalyst

Premises:1 Primary scheduling announcements for22historicalevents recovered before measuring eventreturns;15train2021-24/7chronologicalholdout2025-Jun2026. Jan2021 omitted because not recovered; earlieststudyMar2021, notalllistinghistory. T10excludes6events whose dates were not announced beforeentry, including same-dayunknownhour. 2 FrozenT5/1ADRstop/3ADRtarget30bp/side meantrain-.480636%,holdout-4.292546%; circularblock2bootstrap20000seed91106 mean95%train[-2.215259,1.293171],holdout[-5.773292,-3.038524]%. Conditional on7selectedcompanyevents; resampling cannot discover unseen tails. 3 FullcalendarT5timeonlyholdout-11.1555% versusbarrier-26.5783% shows tighter stop policy hurts this sample; doesnotjustifyremovingrequiredstops. Conclusionrejectprimaryrule. Validity:negativecostedtraining/holdout failproposedentrygate; soundnesslimitedtocalendarvintages,selection,earlynewsandregimes. This ischronologicalholdoutfornewrule,notapr istinefundwideuntoucheddataset. September2023overlapsWebhelp; excludingittrainstill-4.86638%N14. PrimarysourceURLs observations24553–24575; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars

1 Registry187randomizedadults,145active/42vehicle:primarycomposite65.5vs4.8%,difference60.7pp; approximateunadjustedWald95%50.62–70.78ppfromroundedrates. This isnotprespecifiedtrialinferenceorapprovalodds; populationexcludesaggressive/recurrent/highriskH-zonelesions. SeriousTEAEs3/145vs2/42notcausalcomparison.2 Tradingholdout74fixedmomentumtradesmean-.70697%/event,20000iidbootstrapseed91295%mean[-2.40017,+1.15124]%,total-52.2123%. Samplingdependenttradesignoresregime/timecorrelation; CIcrosszeroandnegativepointestimatedo notproveallFDAstrategiesfail.3 Sponsorregistryandpressreleaseoneclinicalorigin;ITCindependentlegalorigin;SIPmarkettransactionsseparateorigin. Noactive-comparatorclinicalclaim,noconversionofclinicaleffectintostockwinrate. Sources https://clinicaltrials.gov/api/v2/studies/NCT03573401 ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .

1 Eight issuer-dated TBN runups, six training/two holdout; baseline1ADR/3ADR trainmean1.6863%, bootstrap95%[-.4535,3.6226] with onlyone loss. Holdout +2.97997/+2.30030%,N2, no losses is not certainty and cannot estimate loss severity. No8event targethits (7time exits,1stop); historicaledge is modest runup, not demonstrated3R tail. 2 Latest60 matched daily log returns TBN vsSPY OLS beta.21021,intercept.123538%/day,corr.06673; descriptive weak linearrelation, nottrue independence or causalalpha. 3 Current candidate selected fortrend/affordability from227 leads; selection/survivorship andretrospectivedatearchive bias. May13 2025PIPE/acreage news insideMay14runup contaminates pureearnings attribution; include notsilentlydrop. Countercase newfirstgas is positive structuralbreak makingold sample less relevant in eitherdirection. Prior lowconfidence edge moves to paperwatch fromnew positivecostedhistory, notlive; additional prospective outcomes and intraday/cash evidence needed. Sources https://ir.tamboran.com/news-events/ir-calendar/past ; https://ir.tamboran.com/news-events/press-releases?page=3 ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=TBN,SPY&feed=sip&adjustment=all .

1 Querytrades shows no holdings/pending/closing; all3closedlosses, MIRM-.4393%,IONS-2.8424%,RARE-45.8601%. 2 Twooperatorliquidations censor intendedhorizons; do not fit strategywinrate/slippage distribution toN3. 3 RAREactual6.44R shows unboundedstop risk; contemporaneousquotes/sessiondata missing, so do not attribute all shortfall tobroker slippage. Conclusion no liveexits toreset and no empiricallypositiveKelly here. Counterexample: twoforcedclosures could laterhavewon, which prevents universalnegativeedge inference, not entryvalidation. Full49.14fund at historicalRAREloss wouldlose22.5356=2.6482%account850.99; this is stressscenario,notworstcase. Wholefundtotal loss5.774%account exceedsfewpercent. Source runway:query_trades?fund=catalyst .

1 Reviewed originalbacktests1928/1940, no newbacktest. Chronological2024trainN4 vs2025–May2026holdoutN6, SIP/vectorbt fees5bp/side/slippage10base25stress. All12trainingcellsnegative;preferredstress-6.5511%. 2 Holdout+3.8230%,DD3.9565%,wins4/6,W2.6432/L3.2626%,meanCI[-1.77895,3.06512]%. Selectedsmallholdout doesnotestablishnew3Rstrategy. 3 Own3trades0wins includes2operatorcensored;RAREgap demonstrates stopnotmaxloss. Conclusionapproved0 despite rawhalfKelly.12761179. Counterexample changedEPMroyaltymixcouldimprovefutureoutcomes, butdoesnotdeletefailedtrain. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=EPM&feed=sip&adjustment=all ; runway:query_research?fund=catalyst&analysisKind=backtest ; runway:query_trades?fund=catalyst .

Review oforiginalbacktests1928/1940,notnewtest.1 Chronological2024trainN4 versus2025–May2026holdoutN6,vectorbt/costedSIP; all12traincellsnegative,preferredstress-6.5511%.2 Holdout+3.8230%,DD3.9565%,4/6wins,meanCI[-1.77895,3.06512]%; selectedsmallholdout notreliable3Rodds. CLI109trades gross-51.8445%,DD67.3506%,wins32.1101% lacksindependentOOS/costs.3 OwntradehistoryN3/0wins,2operatorliquidations,censored; RAREstored-6.44Rshowsstopnotgapbound. PythonrawhalfKelly.1276117927 fromW2.64321/L3.26259;approved0. Validityfailedentry/payoffprerequisites; soundnesslimitedtosampledsetups. Strongcountercaseacquiredroyaltymixchangesregime,needsprospectiveproofnotdeletingtraining. Sources: https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=EPM&feed=sip&adjustment=all ; runway:query_research?fund=catalyst .

Review not newbacktest.1 Original1928EPM2024train4/2025–May2026holdout6; all12traincellsnegative,preferredstress-6.5511%,holdout+3.8230%,DD3.9565%,wins4/6,W2.64321/L3.26259%,meanCI[-1.77895,3.06512]%. HalfKelly arithmetic.127611793 describesselectedholdout,approved0.2 TLX2167 genericmomentumtrain-25.273% isnotFDAeventvalidation;LOVE1677holdout-2.34135%.3 Actualfund3trades0wins,mean-16.3806%,total-31.9373;RARE-6.44035storedR versus2operatorliquidations. Countercase censoredsmalltradehistory doesnot prove allcatalystslose; therefore do notuse0/3 asuniversalodds. Negative training,unknown new3Rtarget odds andincompleteeventexecutionjustifyzero. Sources runway:query_research?fund=catalyst ; runway:query_trades?fund=catalyst ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .

This is a review of recorded tests, not a new backtest or an independent holdout. Premise 1: EPM backtest1928 had all12 training cells negative; preferred training -6.5511%, six-event holdout +3.8230%, win probability4/6, average win2.6432%, loss3.2626%, drawdown3.9565%, bootstrap mean CI[-1.77895,3.06512]%. Raw quarter-Kelly .0638059 is descriptive, approved allocation0. Premise2: LOVE1677 stressed holdout N10, p20%, W10.7024%/L2.7538%, return-2.34135%, DD12.9858%, CI crosses0. Premise3: TLX2167 generic momentum training-25.273%, holdoutN19+11.0352%, p9/19,W6.5854%/L4.4908%,DD23.9874%, CI[-2.0924,3.5902]%; not FDA-event validation. Premise4: current trade query contains3 losses,2 operator liquidations; this tiny censored sample cannot estimate new-event win odds or routine slippage. Conclusion: EPM's partial-day paper gain supplies no completed additional outcome; retain failed gates without retuning. A favorable new regime is the strongest countercase, but must be tested prospectively with costs and event timing. Sources runway:query_research?fund=catalyst (1928,1677,2167,2247); runway:query_trades?fund=catalyst ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .

Reused frozenCLI/vectorbt backtests,notnewtests. Premise1 EPM1928all12trainingcellsnegative;preferredtrain-6.551%,holdout6+3.823%,p4/6,W2.6432%,L3.2626%,sampledDD3.9565%,bootstrapCI[-1.77895,3.06512]%. RawquarterKelly.063806descriptiveonly.2 LOVE1677stressN10p20%,W10.7024/L2.7538%,return-2.34135%,DD12.9858%,CIcross0 andeventalreadyreleased.3 TLX2167training-25.273%,holdout19+11.0352%,p9/19,W6.5854/L4.4908%,DD23.9874%,CI[-2.0924,3.5902]%,genericmomentumnotFDAcohort.4 Ownquerytrades3losses,2operatorliquidationscensored; cannot equatep0tofutureodds. Conclusion approvedquarterKelly0; oneprospectiveEPMentrynotfinishedoutcomeorindependentvalidation. Countercase regimechangecouldyieldpositiveedge, requiresnewprospectiveevidence,notholdoutretune. Sources runway:query_research?fund=catalyst (1928,1940,2234) ; runway:query_trades?fund=catalyst ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .

Trading run reuses prior tests, not a new experiment. Premise1 TLX2167 stressholdoutN19,p9/19,W6.5854%,L4.4908%,return11.0352%,DD23.9874%,CI[-2.0924,3.5902]%; training-25.273%,genericmomentum notFDAcohort. Premise2 LOVE1677stressN10,p20%,W10.7024%,L2.7538%,return-2.34135%,DD12.9858%,CI[-3.3193,4.0585]%; actualrelease endsrunup. Premise3 EPM1928N6,p66.6667%,W2.64321%,L3.26259%,holdout+3.823%,training-6.551%,CI[-1.77895,3.06512]%; all12traincellsnegative. Ownrecord3losses,2operatorcensored fromquery_trades, notfuturep=0. Conclusion approvedquarterKelly0; unknown independent liveedge, no averaging incompatiblecohorts. Strongcountercase changedregimesandpositivehistoricalcells possible; needsprospective evidence notreuseofalreadyobservedholdout. CLI/vectorbt/costs/windowrecords retained1677/1688/1928/1940/2167; no rerun or new backtest claim. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars and runway:query_research?fund=catalyst .

Premises1 directquery_trades?fund=catalyst returns3closed,0wins,avgprice loss16.38060%,PnL-31.93726; MIRM/IONS operatorliquidation censorintendedhorizons. RAREactualprice loss45.86006%=6.44035listedstopR; stopnotcashlossbound.2 Noarrivalquotes/ordercomparison,so marketversuslimitslippagenotestimable; cannotimputezero.3 TLX60dailyOLSbetaSPY.841656/corr.210142 in454barADSsample; marketassociationneitherFDApayoutnordiversificationguarantee. Default19holdoutmean95%bootstrapCI[-2.09237,3.59020]% crosseszero. Conclusionlivep/win magnitudeunknown,adoptedsize0;0/3isrecorddescriptive,notfuturep=0. Strongcountercaseforcedliquidationsandshortsampleunderstateeventstrategy; thatinvalidatesinferenceofpositiveandnegativeedgealike. Sources runway:query_trades?fund=catalyst ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=TLX,SPY&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all .

Premises1 DARDEN06stressedgreenexecution6eventmean.76280%,CI[-1.49818,2.52709]%;4/6winsWilson[.29999,.90323]. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=DRI,SPY&feed=sip&adjustment=all .2 OLSnetDRIreturnongrosssamewindowSPY:train12alpha.251474%,beta.190686,corr.202725;test6alpha-.278871%,beta-1.678656,corr-.902852. Testmeanexcess+1.38334%doesnotestablishstablealpha; signreversal,smallNandpost-selectionknownholdoutremain. BenchmarkholdsfullT5->T1closewhileDRIexitsintraday,soexposuredurationsdiffer;notcausalfactorattribution.3 Ownquery_tradesfundcatalyst ledgerthreeclosed0wins,meanloss16.380601%,realized-31.937258USD;twooperatorliquidationscensorintendedhorizons. RAREloss45.860062%=6.440348listed-stopR. Noobservedaveragewinner,actualentryquoteshistoryabsent,soexecution'sspread/slippagecannotbeseparatedfromgapsandmonitorlatency. ConclusionoperationalKelly0. Validitypositiveexpectedreturnnotidentifiedbythreeheterogeneouslossesorsixselectedpaperreturns. Soundnesslimits sampling/censoring andregimes;0/3isnotfuturep=0. Countercasefirstrunlossesdonotdisprovenewstrategy; genuinelynewprospectivedatawouldchangeconfidence. Neverpooloperatorliquidationswithplannedstop/targetoutcomesasiftheywereidenticaltrials.

1 The frozen six-event holdout1997 has barrier mean-1.61159%,95% empirical bootstrap interval[-6.34633,3.30274]%; 50,000 samples, NumPy seed2026091004. Small same-issuer observations and reused market periods limit independence; no population FDA hazard or post-Sobi probability inferred. 2 Time-only net returns compared with identical SPY windows: mean excess-4.10849 percentage points, correlation.401166,OLSbeta1.621565/intercept-5.07762% perwindow. Six observations are descriptive, not a stable factor model. No selection/refit follows these coefficients. 3 New ordinary shares17,647,059 versus94,084,210 prior total yields18.75666% share-count increase; existing ownership falls15.79420% after111,731,269 total. EUR2.4m issuance costs/30m gross=8%; net27.6m. Rates and totals are different concepts. 4 Live Catalyst ledger has3losses,2operator-censored exits; no observed mean winner. Therefore quarterKelly clipped0 under tested payoff and undefined for newfundingregime. Strong countercase financing changes the distribution; requires independent observations, not treating narrative as measured edge. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=IPHA,SPY&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all ; https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1598599/000162828026057935/exhibit993.htm ; runway:query_trades?fund=catalyst .

Premise1 OLS on252latest matched daily adjustedreturns: EPM alpha-.243994%/day,SPYbeta.045827,XLEbeta1.011687,R2.275285; IPHAalpha-.003762%,SPYbeta1.634852,XLEbeta.171132,R2.043649. These are contemporaneous descriptive coefficients, no causal/event prediction or significance claimed. Premise2 fresh6393securities,6389two-dayreturns Sep8–9 median-.88665%,p05-6.9450,p95+3.5162. Universe currentlist survival/identifier/missingbar biases persist; preferred/warrants can remain. Premise3 own3closedtrades0wins mean-16.380601%,twooperatorliquidations; averagewinner undefined so cannot calibrate profitable ownedge. Conclusion no evidence merely being affordable/beta-exposed creates preeventalpha. Countercase company-specific news can overwhelm sector; need independently costed event sample. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all&timeframe=1Day ; runway:query_trades?fund=catalyst ; listing URLs19164. Distinguish6eventholdout positive pointestimate fromuncertainty inrecorded backtest; no pooledcrossfundodds.

Numbered premises:1 queried ledger and NumPy calculation18633 show three losses, mean-16.380601%, no average winner, two operator liquidations; not an unbiased strategy sample.2 reused AVO1270/1158 chronological costed holdoutN6 p.5,W1.318443%,L3.743633%,expectancy-1.212595%,return-7.331815%,DD9.371961%; quarterKelly recomputed max(0,.25*(p-(1-p)*L/W))=0.3 frozen LOVE1789 N10 stress-2.341352% and CHWY N6-1.719988% remain separate from LOVE prospectiveN1+1.211948%. Conclusion size0. Valid under required edge gate; soundness limited small selected samples, censoring and historical execution proxies. Counterexample: future independent sample may validate a different rule, but cannot rescue current p/W/L. Source runway:query_trades?fund=catalyst and https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . No new historical backtest or fit claimed.

Reuse1677/1777; no fit. LOVEcoststressN10p.2,W10.702374%,L2.753813%,compound-2.341352%,DD12.985803%,mean-.0625755%,95%meanCI[-3.319283,4.058455]%,quarterKelly0. CHWY N6p.5 W4.523391%L4.828695%,compound-1.719988%,DD14.258614%,negativeKellyclipped0. PremiseN1prospectiveLOVE+1.211948%stress is insufficient independent evidence; no pooledrecalibration. Own3closed0wins includes2operatorliquidations and hasundefinedaveragewinner. Conclusion no quantifiedpositiveexecutableedge,allocation0. Counterexample largerpredeclaredcostedindependentholdout could support risk; smallselectedsamplesdo notproveuniversalnegativeedge. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars; runway:query_trades?fund=catalyst; existing recordedCLI1688andvectorbt1677 remainrejected, no retest needed forstanddown.

Reuse1753/original38/1677; no new fit or backtest. CHWY chronologicalN6 p.5 W4.523391% L4.828695%,return-1.719988%,DD14.258614; PythonquartercapitalKelly(p/L-(1-p)/W)/4=-.1747224067 clipped0. LOVErequiredexitsN10basep.3 W7.292817% L2.929065%return-.368512%DD12.286896;stressp.2 W10.702374% L2.753813%return-2.341352%,meanCI[-3.319283,4.058455]%. Ownledger3closed0wins,2censoredoperatorliquidations,averagewinnerundefined. NewLOVEpaperunfinished cannot update distribution. Selection/smallN limit inference; neither universalnegativeedge nor crediblepositiveedge established. Independent predeclared costed holdout with15min/gapawareexits would change allocation; a currentgreenmark doesnot. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; runway:query_trades?fund=catalyst .

Read1733/1736 and original-study summaries38/1677/1678/1688; no identicalrerun. CHWY chronologicalN6 p.5 avgwin4.523391% avgloss4.828695%,return-1.719988%,DD14.258614%; PythonfractionKellycapital=(p/L-(1-p)/W)/4=-.1747224067 clipped0. Prospectivepre-eventCHWY N1 -2.687668%keptseparate. LOVErequiredexitsN10basep.3 W7.292817% L2.929065% return-.368512%,DD12.286896%;stressp.2 W10.702374% L2.753813%,return-2.341352%,mean-.062576%,meanCI[-3.319283,4.058455]%. Selectedtimeonlypositive result not executableedge. Ownledgerrecomputedfrom3fills0wins,avg loss16.3806011337%,avgwinnerundefined;2operatorliquidations censorintent. Samplingselected/small; cannotproveuniversalnegativeedge. Credible independentnetmean withactual15minexits would moveallocation above0 subjectcaps, today'snewsdoesnot. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; runway:query_trades?fund=catalyst ; observations18565 and original analyses38/1677.

1. Read original backtests38,1677/78,1688 andqueriedownledger. CHWY chronologicalholdoutN6 p=.5 W=.04523391 L=.04828695,return-1.719988%,DD14.258614%; PythonquarterKellycapital(p/L-(1-p)/W)/4=-.1747224,clipped0. Prospective pre-event N1 -2.687668%remainsseparate. 2. LOVE1677N10 basep30%,W7.292817%,L2.929065%,return-.368512%,DD12.286896%; stressp20%,W10.702374%,L2.753813%,return-2.341352%,mean-.062576%,CI[-3.319283,4.058455]%. Selectedtimeonlygaincannotvalidate requiredexits; all CIs cross0.3. Own0/3wins,meanloss16.380601%,avgwinnerundefined,2operatorliquidations censorhorizon. Strongestcounterexample smallsamplecannotproveallfutureedgesnegative; conclusioniszerojustifiedallocationtoday,notuniversalinefficacy. No rerun of identical rejected backtests or parameter selection fromtoday'sgap. ExistingCLI58/1688diagnosticlimits retained. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; runway:query_trades?fund=catalyst ; originaldates inanalysis38observations84–101.

1. Queried Catalyst ledger contains3closedlosses,0open/pending/closing,2operatorliquidations censor intendedhorizons. Pythonreturns MIRM-.439321%,IONS-2.842420%,RARE-45.860062%;meanloss16.380601%,winrate0/3,avgwinnerundefined. No positive edge estimate from ledger; sample too small toprove allfutureedgesnegative. RAREexit13.98976 vsstop24 =41.7093%worse, gapnotboundedbylogicalstop. 2. Separate frozenCHWY38 prospective N1 paper: Aug25IEXopen24.47 toSep8open23.86,5bpfee/slip eachside net-2.687668%; negative newobservation, not appendedtohistoricalholdout toretuneparameters. OriginalhistoricalN6p50%,W4.523391%,L4.828695%,mean-.152652%,return-1.719988%,DD14.258614% retained. 3. Costs andcorrectedcapitalKelly(p/L-(1-p)/W)/4 implynonpositiveCHWYcapital; adopted0. Sources runway:query_trades?fund=catalyst ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=CHWY,LOVE,SPY&timeframe=1Day&feed=iex&adjustment=all . No fabricatedavgwinner or pricededge.

Premise1 selected final-session time-only holdout N10 has p30%, W9.1616%, L1.6259%, mean1.61035%; ordinary bootstrap30000 gives[-1.64573,6.42680]%. Those are return uncertainty, not an approval probability. Premise2 biggest event Apr9 2025 (beforeApr10 earnings) gained20.82783% net while same-window SPY rose9.80126% gross. Removing it only as sensitivity yieldsN9 mean-0.524927%,total-4.930802%; original sample retains it. All leave-one-out means range[-0.524927,2.092853]%. Premise3 OLS of stock net vs SPY gross gives correlation0.914914,beta2.11122,intercept-0.437169% and mean excess0.640522pp. Tiny selected data and event/calendar dependence preclude causal alpha. Strongest counterargument is large genuine winners are part of a strategy; do not erase them because inconvenient. Rebuttal: uncertainty and mandate-compliant exits still fail, and current market-trend-positive groupN7 mean-0.21910% provides no rescue. No additional filters chosen. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=LOVE,SPY&timeframe=15Min&feed=sip&adjustment=all ; recorded event primary links18186–18233. Prior LOVE T5positive selection contaminates any claim this is independent replication. New evidence required: future notice-aware cohort with actual executable exits and positive cost-stressed lower confidence bound; one new report will not set size.