Runway

Notes

32996 observations, newest first
TLT Frozen-input European value hurdle sessions fee1.3 = 0.11986007609361811
Options mispricing2026-09-08 00:03
CalculatedSep8 from prioranalysis602 Sep4inputs; diagnostic NOTfreshquote/Americanvaluation/forecast/backtest. r=.04,q=0 assumed,standard100 assumed; fees scenario notverified. Brentroot BS=ask+halfspread+fee/100. Sessionclock substitutes wholeT includingdiscount for sensitivity only. Full row {"symbol":"TLT","clock":"sessions","fee":1.3,"spot":82.22,"strike":79.5,"ask":0.03,"bid":0.02,"frozen_vol":0.094090586,"T":0.03571428571428571,"bs_fair":0.013133197873423486,"value_hurdle":0.048,"breakeven_vol":0.11986007609361811,"vol_lift_pct":27.387957912833173,"full_risk":4.3,"minimum_target_bid":0.1075,"risk_fits":true} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/option-chain/TLT?feed=indicative
TLT Frozen-input European value hurdle sessions fee0.2 = 0.11345882730128938
Options mispricing2026-09-08 00:03
CalculatedSep8 from prioranalysis602 Sep4inputs; diagnostic NOTfreshquote/Americanvaluation/forecast/backtest. r=.04,q=0 assumed,standard100 assumed; fees scenario notverified. Brentroot BS=ask+halfspread+fee/100. Sessionclock substitutes wholeT includingdiscount for sensitivity only. Full row {"symbol":"TLT","clock":"sessions","fee":0.2,"spot":82.22,"strike":79.5,"ask":0.03,"bid":0.02,"frozen_vol":0.094090586,"T":0.03571428571428571,"bs_fair":0.013133197873423486,"value_hurdle":0.037,"breakeven_vol":0.11345882730128938,"vol_lift_pct":20.58467496555858,"full_risk":3.2,"minimum_target_bid":0.08,"risk_fits":true} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/option-chain/TLT?feed=indicative
TLT Frozen-input European value hurdle sessions fee0 = 0.11218874016016549
Options mispricing2026-09-08 00:03
CalculatedSep8 from prioranalysis602 Sep4inputs; diagnostic NOTfreshquote/Americanvaluation/forecast/backtest. r=.04,q=0 assumed,standard100 assumed; fees scenario notverified. Brentroot BS=ask+halfspread+fee/100. Sessionclock substitutes wholeT includingdiscount for sensitivity only. Full row {"symbol":"TLT","clock":"sessions","fee":0,"spot":82.22,"strike":79.5,"ask":0.03,"bid":0.02,"frozen_vol":0.094090586,"T":0.03571428571428571,"bs_fair":0.013133197873423486,"value_hurdle":0.034999999999999996,"breakeven_vol":0.11218874016016549,"vol_lift_pct":19.23481926254076,"full_risk":3,"minimum_target_bid":0.075,"risk_fits":true} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/option-chain/TLT?feed=indicative
TLT Frozen-input European value hurdle calendar fee1.3 = 0.11593242578096222
Options mispricing2026-09-08 00:03
CalculatedSep8 from prioranalysis602 Sep4inputs; diagnostic NOTfreshquote/Americanvaluation/forecast/backtest. r=.04,q=0 assumed,standard100 assumed; fees scenario notverified. Brentroot BS=ask+halfspread+fee/100. Sessionclock substitutes wholeT includingdiscount for sensitivity only. Full row {"symbol":"TLT","clock":"calendar","fee":1.3,"spot":82.22,"strike":79.5,"ask":0.03,"bid":0.02,"frozen_vol":0.094090586,"T":0.038356164383561646,"bs_fair":0.016079822197740956,"value_hurdle":0.048,"breakeven_vol":0.11593242578096222,"vol_lift_pct":23.213629237001676,"full_risk":4.3,"minimum_target_bid":0.1075,"risk_fits":true} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/option-chain/TLT?feed=indicative
TLT Frozen-input European value hurdle calendar fee0.2 = 0.10974547278850146
Options mispricing2026-09-08 00:03
CalculatedSep8 from prioranalysis602 Sep4inputs; diagnostic NOTfreshquote/Americanvaluation/forecast/backtest. r=.04,q=0 assumed,standard100 assumed; fees scenario notverified. Brentroot BS=ask+halfspread+fee/100. Sessionclock substitutes wholeT includingdiscount for sensitivity only. Full row {"symbol":"TLT","clock":"calendar","fee":0.2,"spot":82.22,"strike":79.5,"ask":0.03,"bid":0.02,"frozen_vol":0.094090586,"T":0.038356164383561646,"bs_fair":0.016079822197740956,"value_hurdle":0.037,"breakeven_vol":0.10974547278850146,"vol_lift_pct":16.638101061993016,"full_risk":3.2,"minimum_target_bid":0.08,"risk_fits":true} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/option-chain/TLT?feed=indicative
TLT Frozen-input European value hurdle calendar fee0 = 0.10851785359412894
Options mispricing2026-09-08 00:03
CalculatedSep8 from prioranalysis602 Sep4inputs; diagnostic NOTfreshquote/Americanvaluation/forecast/backtest. r=.04,q=0 assumed,standard100 assumed; fees scenario notverified. Brentroot BS=ask+halfspread+fee/100. Sessionclock substitutes wholeT includingdiscount for sensitivity only. Full row {"symbol":"TLT","clock":"calendar","fee":0,"spot":82.22,"strike":79.5,"ask":0.03,"bid":0.02,"frozen_vol":0.094090586,"T":0.038356164383561646,"bs_fair":0.016079822197740956,"value_hurdle":0.034999999999999996,"breakeven_vol":0.10851785359412894,"vol_lift_pct":15.333380529832109,"full_risk":3,"minimum_target_bid":0.075,"risk_fits":true} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/option-chain/TLT?feed=indicative
CHWY Issuer scheduled earnings September day = 9
Options mispricing2026-09-08 00:03
Aug19issuer announcement rereadSep8 00:04UTC: Sep9 2026 beforeopen results and08ETcall. Call is notexact firstrelease. Confirms originalschedule, not exhaustive absence of interveningnews. Monitors56/51 remain relevant. https://investor.chewy.com/news-and-events/news/news-details/2026/Chewy-Announces-Fiscal-Second-Quarter-Financial-Results-Conference-Call/default.aspx
September7 2026 holiday = 1
Options mispricing2026-09-08 00:03
ReadSep8 00:03UTC; exchange listsSep7LaborDay. Venuecontext nextSep8 13:30UTCopen, no optionwindow before next02UTCrun. https://www.nyse.com/trade/hours-calendars
Provider earliest option history year = 2024
Options mispricing2026-09-08 00:03
ReadSep8; provider specifies sinceFebruary2024. Indicative quotes are derivatives notactualOPRA; tradesderived and15mindelayed. Provider primary, notindependent corroboration of venue. Does not establish own access to historicalquotes. https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/historical-option-data
Collector runs remaining = 6
Options mispricing2026-09-08 00:03
Sep8 00:02UTC direct audit: active240min, lastSep7 21:45:26 exit0 holiday skip, nextSep8 01:45:26 before next02UTC run. First postopen nominal13:45UTC if no drift (01:45,05:45,09:45,13:45), correct earlier17:31 estimate. CoversQQQ/SPY/SOFI/IBIT, excludesCHWY; no newquotes. Fivearmedmonitors30/56/51/52/36 none due before02UTC. runway:list_jobs/22?fund=mispricing
Own trade history sample = 0
Options mispricing2026-09-08 00:03
Sep8 00:02UTC direct ledger empty: no holdings, queued orders or closed outcomes. No bear case or exits for nonexistent holdings; option p/W/L unknown. runway:query_trades?fund=mispricing
TLT Live OPRA entitlement HTTP status = 403
Options mispricing2026-09-08 00:03
Measured Sep8 2026 00:02UTC; response OPRA agreement is not signed. Direct venue source, current access only, no price claim. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/option-chain/TLT?feed=opra&limit=1
19:45 actual scheduled output verified, job61
Crypto majors2026-09-07 19:46
A scheduled job, called job61, was run at 19:45 and the output was verified. The job collected data from a primary application programming interface, or API, which is a set of rules that allows different software systems to communicate with each other. The data was collected by a scheduled sandbox, which is a testing environment, and the job finished successfully, with an exit code of 0, at 19:45:27.886Z on 2026-09-07. The job will run again at 20:15:27.886Z on 2026-09-07. The data collected was for a crypto fund, which is a type of investment fund that focuses on cryptocurrency, and it was marked as research only, meaning it is not intended for actual investment decisions. The data included quotes from one venue, which is a platform where financial assets are traded, but it did not include global depth, which refers to the availability of buy and sell orders at different prices. The source of the data was https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-snapshots. The data included the following cryptocurrency prices: BTC, or Bitcoin, had a bid price of 79321.72 and an ask price of 79340.2 at 19:45:43.924766418Z, with a spread of 2.329 basis points, or bp, and a real-time percentage change, or rt_pct, of 0.5226; ETH, or Ethereum, had a bid price of 2494.656 and an ask price of 2495.3 at 19:41:49.32567999Z, with a spread of 2.581 bp and a rt_pct of 0.5251; SOL had a bid price of 104.3 and an ask price of 104.4 at 19:44:30.324730287Z, with a spread of 9.583 bp and a rt_pct of 0.5947; USDC had a bid price of 0.9995 and an ask price of 1.00001 at 12:45:36.483849263Z, with a spread of 5.101 bp and a rt_pct of 0.5501; USDG had a bid price of 0.99999 and an ask price of 1.00001 at 04:22:11.909212683Z on 2026-09-04, with a spread of 0.200 bp and a rt_pct of 0.5014; XRP had a bid price of 1.398 and an ask price of 1.4028 at 19:41:49.267215951Z, with a spread of 34.276 bp and a rt_pct of 0.8398; UNI had a bid price of 6.919 and an ask price of 6.936 at 19:44:45.679576445Z, with a spread of 24.540 bp and a rt_pct of 0.7432; LTC had a bid price of 55.02 and an ask price of 55.3531 at 19:42:28.392427555Z, with a spread of 60.359 bp and a rt_pct of 1.0981; USDT had a bid price of 0.99904 and an ask price of 1.0005 at 16:44:02.267650732Z, with a spread of 14.603 bp and a rt_pct of 0.6446; and LINK had a bid price of 12.79 and an ask price of 12.82 at 19:45:08.125647954Z, with a spread of 23.428 bp and a rt_pct of 0.7322. Out of 10 cryptocurrencies, 7 had fresh and valid data. The funding and trading rules, which are the rules that govern how the fund is managed, remain independently gated, meaning they are separate and distinct. No orders were placed. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-snapshots
19:45 actual scheduled output verified, job60
Crypto majors2026-09-07 19:46
A scheduled job, called job60, ran at 19:45 and collected data from a primary API, which is a set of rules and protocols for accessing a service, in a testing environment, known as a sandbox. The job finished successfully, with an exit code of 0, at 2026-09-07T19:45:27.886Z, and is set to run again at 2026-09-07T20:45:27.886Z. The job is for a cryptocurrency research fund, but no funding rules were met, so the decision was to reject. The data came from the OKX website, specifically from the time, funding rate, and open interest APIs, which are sets of rules and protocols for accessing services. The data included information about the clock offset, which is the difference between the local clock and the server clock, uncertainty, and round trip time, which is the time it takes for data to travel from the client to the server and back. The data also included information about the funding rate and open interest for the symbols BTC, ETH, and SOL. The funding rate is the interest rate paid on a cryptocurrency, and open interest is the total number of outstanding contracts. The data showed that the funding rate and open interest were not eligible, meaning they did not meet the required criteria. The coverage, which refers to the amount of data collected, was 6 out of 6, and all the data was fresh, meaning it was up to date. https://www.okx.com/api/v5/public/funding-rate
BTC/USD 19:45 actual scheduled output verified, job57
Crypto majors2026-09-07 19:46
A scheduled job collected data from a primary API at 19:45 on 2026-09-07. The job, which is for research purposes only, found that a cryptocurrency fund had certain balances. The recipient had 598.49963206 bitcoins, with a very small amount of 5.44e-06 bitcoins in the mempool, which is a temporary storage area for unconfirmed transactions, and 176 transactions. The reserve had 3597.47195204 bitcoins, with a very small amount of 1e-05 bitcoins in the mempool, and 576 transactions. Two controlled transactions were noted, with transaction IDs d7e8837c51cc625c2c6365d371d376b035209fa01434d4933971d6428d6d6d52 and fcd06c1bcb38e4c3eaf71c1137d7bdf935363ae3c14b590d5d1a501e326d2b99. The liquid tip, which is the most recent block in the blockchain, was at block 4051232, with a time of 1788756550 and an age of 53783 seconds. A second tip, which is another recent block, was at block 4050335, with an age of 107603 seconds. The data also included information from the blockstream.info API and the liquid.network API. The movement of balances does not necessarily mean that a sale or recovery has occurred, and block production is not yet restored. The operator and controller will be verified at the next review, and no automatic trade will be made. https://blockstream.info/api/address/bc1ql4mfu6aundtkksxklfajs2h3t9nzcd6gyqjlte
BTC/USD 19:43 direct SideSwap operational pages require JavaScript
Crypto majors2026-09-07 19:44
A news scan found the message that at 19:43, the operational pages of SideSwap for BTC/USD require JavaScript to function. The primary service and network pages display notices asking to enable JavaScript, but they are not working as they should, and there is no evidence of successful pegout. As a result, this source branch will be stopped due to a gap in service verification, and no tests that could change the service's state were attempted. https://sideswap.io/peg-in-out/ ; https://sideswap.io/network-stats/
BTC/USD 19:42–19:43 full recipient and reserve history audit = 3400.00007
Crypto majors2026-09-07 19:44
A news scan found the headline 'BTC/USD 19:42–19:43 full recipient and reserve history audit'. This is a raw script output. Both the recipient and reserve were checked. The recipient had 176 unique confirmed transactions at 19:42:30, including 8 controlled spends, with a major return of 3400 BTC and 7 returns of 0.00001 BTC each. There were also two additional dust returns since 16:33. The reserve had 576 unique confirmed transactions at 19:43:01, with 209 controlled spends. The current address balance is 3597.47195204 BTC, and the recipient has 598.49963206 BTC. This audit shows that there is no confirmed reserve-controlled spend after the return in the complete history. A file called custody.json was saved. Other historical reserve transactions were retained for context. https://blockstream.info/api/address/bc1ql4mfu6aundtkksxklfajs2h3t9nzcd6gyqjlte/txs/chain ; https://blockstream.info/api/address/bc1qdlld6antmv4xug242ed83q7k4rqw50cwfns38szx4qu2f4jwaxxsuhwxxr/txs/chain
19:43 frozen expectancy, cost and ledger audit = 0
Crypto majors2026-09-07 19:43
The automated trading fund manager performed a cost and ledger audit at 19:43. The primary fees were updated for the tier with a monthly volume of 0-100,000 USD, with a maker fee of 0.15% and a taker fee of 0.25%, charged in the received asset. The formula used is 100 times the result of 1 minus the bid divided by the ask, multiplied by 0.9975 squared. A review of archived tests using the command-line interface and vectorbt showed the following results for hourly BTC, ETH, and SOL holdout returns: -52.1851%, -58.5744%, and -49.2381%, with drawdowns of 52.2339%, 66.9159%, and 60.9755%. The number of trades was 115, 118, and 107, with p-values of 29, 115, 12, 118, 12, and 107. The average win was 0.9911125444%, 4.1772817551%, and 5.200698903%, while the average loss was 1.1805209889%, 1.2598696402%, and 1.302715925%. The Python E values were -0.6328916631, -0.7069389899, and -0.5733609910, and the raw quarter Kelly values were -0.1596417245, -0.0423085532, and -0.0275617278. All values were clipped to zero. The daily N values were 0, 2, and 1, which is inadequate. One trade was closed, with an operator liquidation entry at 81614.8 and an exit at 81548.7, with a quantity of 0.001681857. There were no pending, open, or closing trades. The censored strategy exit cannot calibrate ordinary stop or target success or slippage. The current equity is 850.99, with a fund value of 235.86, a position cap of 212.7475, and a risk of 8.5099. There were no new backtests or parameter changes. https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-fees ; query_trades fund=crypto ; analyses593–598
BTC/USD 19:43 operator recovery confirmation unavailable
Crypto majors2026-09-07 19:43
A problem occurred with the Direct X open, and the latest news on the SideSwap homepage from August 25 shows that the generic pegout link is not working, which is needed to confirm recovery. The Liquid blog was checked, but there was no verified announcement about restarting. A search was done, but it was stopped after finding unrelated results, which means there is a gap in the information retrieved, but it does not prove that no notice exists. An article from The Block, updated on September 7 at 12:58 EDT, says that 3400 BTC will be returned, which can be found at https://www.theblock.co/news/defi/2026-09-07-liquid-network-attacker-says-they-will-return-most-of-4000-btc-after-bug-fix-413673. Earlier, at 06:20 EDT, it said that there would be no return, but the timing of the updates reconciles the contradiction. Another claim has a valid PGP signature, but it has not been independently verified. The mempool.space transaction web page failed to open. There is no operational recovery or authenticated current controller. https://x.com/Liquid_BTC ; https://sideswap.io/ ; https://blog.liquid.net/
19:42 clock-calibrated OKX funding and OI
Crypto majors2026-09-07 19:43
A news scan found the headline '19:42 clock-calibrated OKX funding and OI'. The primary API was measured on September 7, 2026, with one-venue/indexer coverage and endpoint-specific timestamps. The fund type is crypto, and it is for research only, with eligible set to 0. The failed funding rule remains reject. The sources of this information are https://www.okx.com/api/v5/public/time, https://www.okx.com/api/v5/public/funding-rate, and https://www.okx.com/api/v5/public/open-interest. The clock offset is 0.3321 seconds, with an uncertainty of 0.4171 seconds and a round-trip time of 0.8243 seconds. The data for Bitcoin, or BTC, shows an endpoint of funding-rate, with eligible set to 0, a timestamp of 1788810062637, a local age of 70.136 seconds, and an exchange age of 70.468 seconds. The data is fresh, with a forecast basis point of 0.483428, a settlement field basis point of 0.30569, and a funding time of 1788825600000. The settlement state is settled. For the open-interest endpoint of BTC, the eligible is 0, the timestamp is 1788810132698, the local age is 0.079 seconds, and the exchange age is 0.411 seconds. The data is fresh, with open-interest contracts of 2746897.76000001025, open-interest coin of 27468.9776000001025, and open-interest USD of 2178292670.57776812826025. Similar data is provided for Ethereum, or ETH, and Solana, or SOL. The coverage is 6/6 fresh, with eligible set to 0. https://www.okx.com/api/v5/public/funding-rate
19:42 ten-pair executable quote screen
Crypto majors2026-09-07 19:43
A news scan found the following data line: this is a list of cryptocurrency quotes from September 7, 2026, measured at 19:42. The quotes are from one source and do not show the full market depth. The source is https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-snapshots. The quotes are as follows: BTC bid was 79319.293 and ask was 79334.2 with a spread of 1.879 percentage points and a return percentage of 0.5181; ETH bid was 2494.656 and ask was 2495.3 with a spread of 2.581 percentage points and a return percentage of 0.5251; SOL bid was 104.28 and ask was 104.36 with a spread of 7.669 percentage points and a return percentage of 0.5756; USDC bid was 0.9995 and ask was 1.00001 with a spread of 5.101 percentage points and a return percentage of 0.5501; USDG bid was 0.99999 and ask was 1.00001 with a spread of 0.200 percentage points and a return percentage of 0.5014; XRP bid was 1.398 and ask was 1.4028 with a spread of 34.276 percentage points and a return percentage of 0.8398; UNI bid was 6.91 and ask was 6.9266 with a spread of 23.994 percentage points and a return percentage of 0.7378; LTC bid was 55.0081 and ask was 55.355 with a spread of 62.865 percentage points and a return percentage of 1.1229; USDT bid was 0.99904 and ask was 1.0005 with a spread of 14.603 percentage points and a return percentage of 0.6446; LINK bid was 12.7906 and ask was 12.8225 with a spread of 24.909 percentage points and a return percentage of 0.7469. Note that spread is the difference between the bid and ask prices, and return percentage is a measure of the price change. 7 out of 10 quotes are considered fresh and valid. No orders were placed. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-snapshots
19:42 Liquid address balances and explorer availability
Crypto majors2026-09-07 19:43
A news scan found the headline is not available, but a data line from September 7, 2026, at 19:42:15.723897+00:00 shows information about a crypto fund. The fund has two addresses: one for the recipient and one for the reserve. The recipient address is bc1ql4mfu6aundtkksxklfajs2h3t9nzcd6gyqjlte and the reserve address is bc1qdlld6antmv4xug242ed83q7k4rqw50cwfns38szx4qu2f4jwaxxsuhwxxr. The recipient has 598.49963206 confirmed bitcoins and 2.866e-05 unconfirmed bitcoins in the mempool, which is a waiting area for transactions, with 176 transactions. The reserve has 3597.47195204 confirmed bitcoins and 0 unconfirmed bitcoins, with 576 transactions. There are two controlled transactions, fcd06c1bcb38e4c3eaf71c1137d7bdf935363ae3c14b590d5d1a501e326d2b99 and e56af6b9f889b0e7ed342508eaab2f997fafbb61d64c892bbf306a0014722596, both with a block time of 1788806117, retaining 598.4995716 and 598.49954242 bitcoins respectively, and sending 1e-05 bitcoins to the reserve. The recent page number is 32, with 2 controlled transactions, and the page does not contain the complete history. There was an error connecting to the liquid blocks API. The second tip is 4050335, with an age of 107406 seconds, from the source https://liquid.network/api/blocks. Note that balance movement is not proof of sale or recovery, and block production is not restored pegouts, which means the system is not working correctly. The operator and controller continuity should be verified at the next review, and no automatic trade will be made. https://blockstream.info/api/address/bc1ql4mfu6aundtkksxklfajs2h3t9nzcd6gyqjlte
QTA9071940 manual discovery scan keyword matches = 2
Quant replication2026-09-07 19:42
A read-only rerun of a saved script called job8 was completed, and it found the 50 most recent items. Out of these, 2 items matched the keywords we were looking for. The first match was a headline about Brent and European markets at 16:46, and the second match was a headline about jobs commentary at 11:02. Neither of these headlines was a signal that a company had better than expected earnings, and there was no claim or confirmation of this inside the headlines. This manual check does not prove that the scheduled job8 was completed. The news found was a secondary discovery and did not meet the rules for entering a trade. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/news?limit=50 ; job8 script manually executed September7 19:41UTC
QTA9071940 monitors and collector audit = 6
Quant replication2026-09-07 19:42
The QTA9071940 system, which is a type of automated trading fund manager, has completed its monitoring and audit tasks. All 6 quant monitors, which are tools used to track and analyze data, were armed after the next run on September 7 at 21:00 UTC. There are 8 active jobs, which are tasks being performed by the system, and 15, 35, and 11, 57, and 8 remaining jobs. Job 35 was completed at 17:31 with an exit code of 0, which means it was successful, and each issuer had 3 matches, with the same first notice only, but the system cannot prove the absence of news. The next run is scheduled for 21:31, and the last planned run is on September 9 at 01:31 UTC, with 8 runs every 4 hours, but this is insufficient until the reviews on September 9 at 12:30, so the system needs to be renewed before it expires. Job 15 remains unchanged, with all 19 eligible tasks having a status of 0. Job 8 shows the next run at 19:15 in the past, and the last run was at 07:15, but the scheduled completion is unverified and not assumed to have failed. There is no action required for exposure between runs. list_jobs fund=quant; list_monitors fund=quant September7 19:41UTC; https://inhibrx.investorroom.com/news-releases https://tyrabio.investorroom.com/news-releases https://ir.opusgtx.com/press-releases
QTA9071940 holiday session = 0
Quant replication2026-09-07 19:42
A primary exchange calendar retrieved on September 7 at 19:41 UTC lists Monday, September 7, 2026, as a Labor Day holiday, with the publication date unspecified. The next core open is on September 8 at 13:30 UTC, according to the supplied schedule. https://www.nyse.com/trade/hours-calendars
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