CF Sep8 06UTC results.json stress 1/10
Supply chain2026-09-08 06:13
MeasuredSep8 06UTC; JSON concatenation by metricpart. Marketdata throughSep4; outputs conditionalmodels not forecasts. {"train":{"N":32,"return_pct":-4.954424876158214,"drawdown_pct":20.468731696777365,"win_rate_pct":50.0,"avg_win_pct":3.609315676719174,"avg_loss_pct":3.7533476702109074,"mean_pct":-0.07201599674586667,"quarter_kelly":0,"buyhold_pct":26.720148102437523,"reasons":{"stop":14,"target":11,"gap_target":3,"gap_stop":2,"time":2},"mean_sessions":3.65625,"ledger":[{"entry":"2022-02-02","entry_i":105,"entry_raw":66.74,"stop":63.837999999999994,"target":71.09299999999999,"adr":2.9019999999999997,"regime":"high","market":"down","exit":"2022-02-14","exit_raw":63.837999999999994,"return":-0.04920410364124339,"why":"stop","sessions":9},{"entry":"2022-02-25","entry_i":121,"entry_raw":70.97,"stop":67.544,"target":76.109,"adr":3.4259999999999993,"regime":"high","market":"down","exit":"2022-03-01","exit_raw":76.109,"return":0.06599566622254516,"why":"target","sessions":3},{"entry":"2022-03-02","entry_i":124,"entry_raw":76.31,"stop":72.83250000000001,"target":81.52625,"adr":3.477499999999999,"regime":"high","market":"down","exit":"2022-03-04","exit_raw":81.52625,"return":0.06196509226895741,"why":"target","sessions":3},{"entry":"2022-03-07","entry_i":127,"entry_raw":83.58,"stop":80.075,"target":88.8375,"adr":3.505,"regime":"high","market":"down","exit":"2022-03-07","exit_raw":88.8375,"return":0.056545464877055585,"why":"target","sessions":1},{"entry":"2022-03-09","entry_i":128,"entry_raw":80.95,"stop":77.1875,"target":86.59375,"adr":3.7625,"regime":"high","market":"down","exit":"2022-03-09","exit_raw":77.1875,"return":-0.05218331322063419,"why":"stop","sessions":1},{"entry":"2022-03-22","entry_i":137,"entry_raw":92.14,"stop":87.837,"target":98.5945,"adr":4.303,"regime":"high","market":"down",
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
CF Sep8 06UTC results.json interplay 2/2
Supply chain2026-09-08 06:13
MeasuredSep8 06UTC; JSON concatenation by metricpart. Marketdata throughSep4; outputs conditionalmodels not forecasts. pct":-0.058523003316303855,"quarter_kelly":0,"buyhold_pct":-7.993238348225051,"reasons":{"stop":13,"target":10,"gap_stop":3,"gap_target":2,"time":2},"mean_sessions":3.5},"holdout":{"N":47,"return_pct":24.391298214460733,"drawdown_pct":23.205893415541944,"win_rate_pct":53.191489361702125,"avg_win_pct":4.563757585275612,"avg_loss_pct":3.9775847279594547,"mean_pct":0.5656824599315382,"quarter_kelly":0.03098775785969883,"buyhold_pct":75.16090897149613,"reasons":{"target":20,"stop":16,"gap_stop":6,"gap_target":5},"mean_sessions":2.765957446808511}},"both":{"train":{"N":32,"return_pct":4.622310952374753,"drawdown_pct":18.41481295422899,"win_rate_pct":50.0,"avg_win_pct":3.9206113454916607,"avg_loss_pct":3.4641732286230527,"mean_pct":0.2282190584343039,"quarter_kelly":0.014552517345077731,"buyhold_pct":26.720148102437523,"reasons":{"stop":14,"target":11,"gap_target":3,"gap_stop":2,"time":2},"mean_sessions":3.65625},"validation":{"N":10,"return_pct":6.5786605615380855,"drawdown_pct":4.901797074464076,"win_rate_pct":60.0,"avg_win_pct":2.6369904037238268,"avg_loss_pct":2.2778629663048915,"mean_pct":0.6710490557123394,"quarter_kelly":0.06361883747896059,"buyhold_pct":-7.993238348225051,"reasons":{"target":4,"stop":3,"gap_stop":1,"time":1,"gap_target":1},"mean_sessions":3.1},"holdout":{"N":17,"return_pct":-25.204850994077777,"drawdown_pct":26.74367741416107,"win_rate_pct":23.52941176470588,"avg_win_pct":3.9132918224838606,"avg_loss_pct":3.3546425677941296,"mean_pct":-1.6445403583169556,"quarter_kelly":0,"buyhold_pct":75.16090897149613,"reasons":{"stop":12,"target":3,"gap_stop":1,"gap_target":1},"mean_sessions":1.8823529411764706}}}
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
CF Sep8 06UTC results.json interplay 1/2
Supply chain2026-09-08 06:13
MeasuredSep8 06UTC; JSON concatenation by metricpart. Marketdata throughSep4; outputs conditionalmodels not forecasts. {"breakout":{"train":{"N":32,"return_pct":4.622310952374753,"drawdown_pct":18.41481295422899,"win_rate_pct":50.0,"avg_win_pct":3.9206113454916607,"avg_loss_pct":3.4641732286230527,"mean_pct":0.2282190584343039,"quarter_kelly":0.014552517345077731,"buyhold_pct":26.720148102437523,"reasons":{"stop":14,"target":11,"gap_target":3,"gap_stop":2,"time":2},"mean_sessions":3.65625},"validation":{"N":11,"return_pct":3.553306758378816,"drawdown_pct":5.6778695250319196,"win_rate_pct":54.54545454545454,"avg_win_pct":2.6369904037238268,"avg_loss_pct":2.390012614479373,"mean_pct":0.35198903181328134,"quarter_kelly":0.03337033681618823,"buyhold_pct":-7.993238348225051,"reasons":{"target":4,"stop":3,"gap_stop":2,"time":1,"gap_target":1},"mean_sessions":3.090909090909091},"holdout":{"N":17,"return_pct":-25.204850994077777,"drawdown_pct":26.74367741416107,"win_rate_pct":23.52941176470588,"avg_win_pct":3.9132918224838606,"avg_loss_pct":3.3546425677941296,"mean_pct":-1.6445403583169556,"quarter_kelly":0,"buyhold_pct":75.16090897149613,"reasons":{"stop":12,"target":3,"gap_stop":1,"gap_target":1},"mean_sessions":1.8823529411764706}},"trend":{"train":{"N":122,"return_pct":-37.12365978122827,"drawdown_pct":51.52044806797578,"win_rate_pct":42.62295081967213,"avg_win_pct":3.9619659731040895,"avg_loss_pct":3.4645244807646276,"mean_pct":-0.2991351069845186,"quarter_kelly":0,"buyhold_pct":26.720148102437523,"reasons":{"stop":61,"target":41,"gap_target":9,"gap_stop":8,"time":3},"mean_sessions":3.4754098360655736},"validation":{"N":30,"return_pct":-2.847282455447475,"drawdown_pct":18.53267885957004,"win_rate_pct":46.666666666666664,"avg_win_pct":2.762942619488489,"avg_loss_pct":2.5273054232704975,"mean_
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
CF Sep8 06UTC results.json train_sweep 3/3
Supply chain2026-09-08 06:13
MeasuredSep8 06UTC; JSON concatenation by metricpart. Marketdata throughSep4; outputs conditionalmodels not forecasts. s":3.16}]
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
CF Sep8 06UTC results.json train_sweep 2/3
Supply chain2026-09-08 06:13
MeasuredSep8 06UTC; JSON concatenation by metricpart. Marketdata throughSep4; outputs conditionalmodels not forecasts. ean_pct":0.2282190584343039,"quarter_kelly":0.014552517345077731,"buyhold_pct":26.720148102437523,"reasons":{"stop":14,"target":11,"gap_target":3,"gap_stop":2,"time":2},"mean_sessions":3.65625},{"lookback":20,"SMA":100,"N":28,"return_pct":8.138447928528269,"drawdown_pct":17.45433715540822,"win_rate_pct":53.57142857142857,"avg_win_pct":3.8365357232507202,"avg_loss_pct":3.629836327752677,"mean_pct":0.37000584242771434,"quarter_kelly":0.02411067360753036,"buyhold_pct":26.720148102437523,"reasons":{"stop":11,"target":10,"gap_target":3,"gap_stop":2,"time":2},"mean_sessions":3.642857142857143},{"lookback":40,"SMA":20,"N":25,"return_pct":4.111470810955642,"drawdown_pct":17.45433715540816,"win_rate_pct":52.0,"avg_win_pct":3.967473189604543,"avg_loss_pct":3.759552673962169,"mean_pct":0.25850077509252145,"quarter_kelly":0.0162887537444385,"buyhold_pct":26.720148102437523,"reasons":{"stop":10,"target":9,"gap_stop":2,"gap_target":2,"time":2},"mean_sessions":3.16},{"lookback":40,"SMA":50,"N":25,"return_pct":4.111470810955642,"drawdown_pct":17.45433715540816,"win_rate_pct":52.0,"avg_win_pct":3.967473189604543,"avg_loss_pct":3.759552673962169,"mean_pct":0.25850077509252145,"quarter_kelly":0.0162887537444385,"buyhold_pct":26.720148102437523,"reasons":{"stop":10,"target":9,"gap_stop":2,"gap_target":2,"time":2},"mean_sessions":3.16},{"lookback":40,"SMA":100,"N":25,"return_pct":4.111470810955642,"drawdown_pct":17.45433715540816,"win_rate_pct":52.0,"avg_win_pct":3.967473189604543,"avg_loss_pct":3.759552673962169,"mean_pct":0.25850077509252145,"quarter_kelly":0.0162887537444385,"buyhold_pct":26.720148102437523,"reasons":{"stop":10,"target":9,"gap_stop":2,"gap_target":2,"time":2},"mean_session
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
CF Sep8 06UTC results.json train_sweep 1/3
Supply chain2026-09-08 06:13
MeasuredSep8 06UTC; JSON concatenation by metricpart. Marketdata throughSep4; outputs conditionalmodels not forecasts. [{"lookback":10,"SMA":20,"N":43,"return_pct":-14.588226362705015,"drawdown_pct":31.729516932660175,"win_rate_pct":44.18604651162791,"avg_win_pct":3.6796975259037614,"avg_loss_pct":3.429181895755883,"mean_pct":-0.28804912804580785,"quarter_kelly":0,"buyhold_pct":26.720148102437523,"reasons":{"stop":22,"target":14,"gap_target":3,"gap_stop":2,"time":2},"mean_sessions":3.3488372093023258},{"lookback":10,"SMA":50,"N":40,"return_pct":-10.838710351627046,"drawdown_pct":26.992689757643483,"win_rate_pct":45.0,"avg_win_pct":3.7408815919418124,"avg_loss_pct":3.4353381571958623,"mean_pct":-0.20603927008390868,"quarter_kelly":0,"buyhold_pct":26.720148102437523,"reasons":{"stop":20,"target":13,"gap_target":3,"gap_stop":2,"time":2},"mean_sessions":3.375},{"lookback":10,"SMA":100,"N":35,"return_pct":-10.067807310798194,"drawdown_pct":26.132265399537125,"win_rate_pct":45.714285714285715,"avg_win_pct":3.732988520822383,"avg_loss_pct":3.546571751320647,"mean_pct":-0.21877276976954757,"quarter_kelly":0,"buyhold_pct":26.720148102437523,"reasons":{"stop":17,"target":11,"gap_target":3,"gap_stop":2,"time":2},"mean_sessions":3.3714285714285714},{"lookback":20,"SMA":20,"N":32,"return_pct":4.622310952374753,"drawdown_pct":18.41481295422899,"win_rate_pct":50.0,"avg_win_pct":3.9206113454916607,"avg_loss_pct":3.4641732286230527,"mean_pct":0.2282190584343039,"quarter_kelly":0.014552517345077731,"buyhold_pct":26.720148102437523,"reasons":{"stop":14,"target":11,"gap_target":3,"gap_stop":2,"time":2},"mean_sessions":3.65625},{"lookback":20,"SMA":50,"N":32,"return_pct":4.622310952374753,"drawdown_pct":18.41481295422899,"win_rate_pct":50.0,"avg_win_pct":3.9206113454916607,"avg_loss_pct":3.4641732286230527,"m
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
CF Sep8 06UTC results.json baseline 10/10
Supply chain2026-09-08 06:13
MeasuredSep8 06UTC; JSON concatenation by metricpart. Marketdata throughSep4; outputs conditionalmodels not forecasts. w":139.364875,"return":0.045660797607278036,"why":"target","sessions":1},{"entry":"2026-09-03","entry_i":1254,"entry_raw":138.375,"stop":133.70625,"target":145.378125,"adr":4.668750000000002,"regime":"high","market":"up","exit":"2026-09-04","exit_raw":133.70625,"return":-0.03663427478288328,"why":"stop","sessions":2}]}}
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
CF Sep8 06UTC results.json baseline 9/10
Supply chain2026-09-08 06:13
MeasuredSep8 06UTC; JSON concatenation by metricpart. Marketdata throughSep4; outputs conditionalmodels not forecasts. 0000000001,"return":-0.04120835250837762,"why":"stop","sessions":1},{"entry":"2026-03-31","entry_i":1146,"entry_raw":133.27,"stop":126.8725,"target":142.86625,"adr":6.397500000000001,"regime":"high","market":"down","exit":"2026-03-31","exit_raw":126.8725,"return":-0.050855760779752957,"why":"stop","sessions":1},{"entry":"2026-05-13","entry_i":1176,"entry_raw":127.9,"stop":123.34,"target":134.74,"adr":4.5600000000000005,"regime":"high","market":"up","exit":"2026-05-14","exit_raw":123.34,"return":-0.03854156072589454,"why":"stop","sessions":2},{"entry":"2026-07-09","entry_i":1214,"entry_raw":116.32,"stop":113.014,"target":121.279,"adr":3.3059999999999996,"regime":"low","market":"up","exit":"2026-07-10","exit_raw":113.014,"return":-0.03133196380406156,"why":"stop","sessions":2},{"entry":"2026-07-14","entry_i":1217,"entry_raw":121.28,"stop":118.1635,"target":125.95475,"adr":3.1165,"regime":"low","market":"up","exit":"2026-07-15","exit_raw":118.1635,"return":-0.02861526536893433,"why":"stop","sessions":2},{"entry":"2026-07-21","entry_i":1222,"entry_raw":123.63,"stop":120.457,"target":128.3895,"adr":3.1730000000000005,"regime":"low","market":"up","exit":"2026-07-23","exit_raw":128.3895,"return":0.03538711137609485,"why":"gap_target","sessions":3},{"entry":"2026-08-24","entry_i":1246,"entry_raw":129.86,"stop":126.04575000000001,"target":135.581375,"adr":3.8142500000000004,"regime":"high","market":"up","exit":"2026-08-25","exit_raw":126.04575000000001,"return":-0.0322795372336121,"why":"stop","sessions":2},{"entry":"2026-09-02","entry_i":1253,"entry_raw":132.88,"stop":128.55675,"target":139.364875,"adr":4.3232500000000025,"regime":"high","market":"up","exit":"2026-09-02","exit_ra
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
CF Sep8 06UTC results.json baseline 8/10
Supply chain2026-09-08 06:13
MeasuredSep8 06UTC; JSON concatenation by metricpart. Marketdata throughSep4; outputs conditionalmodels not forecasts. -15","exit_raw":82.36,"return":-0.025592854063452908,"why":"stop","sessions":1},{"entry":"2026-01-21","entry_i":1098,"entry_raw":88.62,"stop":86.492,"target":91.81200000000001,"adr":2.128000000000001,"regime":"low","market":"up","exit":"2026-01-27","exit_raw":91.81200000000001,"return":0.03291555712596406,"why":"target","sessions":5},{"entry":"2026-01-29","entry_i":1104,"entry_raw":92.76,"stop":90.2395,"target":96.54075,"adr":2.5204999999999993,"regime":"high","market":"up","exit":"2026-02-02","exit_raw":89.93,"return":-0.03341295587135762,"why":"gap_stop","sessions":3},{"entry":"2026-02-11","entry_i":1113,"entry_raw":95.24,"stop":92.631,"target":99.1535,"adr":2.6090000000000004,"regime":"high","market":"up","exit":"2026-02-12","exit_raw":92.631,"return":-0.030307398638095395,"why":"stop","sessions":2},{"entry":"2026-02-20","entry_i":1119,"entry_raw":98.47,"stop":95.941,"target":102.2635,"adr":2.529,"regime":"high","market":"up","exit":"2026-02-20","exit_raw":95.941,"return":-0.028601520957155624,"why":"stop","sessions":1},{"entry":"2026-03-06","entry_i":1129,"entry_raw":111.76,"stop":108.355,"target":116.8675,"adr":3.405000000000001,"regime":"high","market":"up","exit":"2026-03-06","exit_raw":116.8675,"return":0.04256820679001749,"why":"target","sessions":1},{"entry":"2026-03-09","entry_i":1130,"entry_raw":115.28,"stop":111.638,"target":120.743,"adr":3.6420000000000003,"regime":"high","market":"up","exit":"2026-03-09","exit_raw":111.638,"return":-0.03449351331082717,"why":"stop","sessions":1},{"entry":"2026-03-13","entry_i":1134,"entry_raw":132.15,"stop":127.08500000000001,"target":139.7475,"adr":5.065,"regime":"high","market":"up","exit":"2026-03-13","exit_raw":127.0850
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
CF Sep8 06UTC results.json baseline 7/10
Supply chain2026-09-08 06:13
MeasuredSep8 06UTC; JSON concatenation by metricpart. Marketdata throughSep4; outputs conditionalmodels not forecasts. get":93.76599999999999,"adr":1.8840000000000003,"regime":"low","market":"up","exit":"2025-06-13","exit_raw":93.76599999999999,"return":0.027986842481365626,"why":"gap_target","sessions":2},{"entry":"2025-06-16","entry_i":948,"entry_raw":98.52,"stop":96.642,"target":101.337,"adr":1.8780000000000008,"regime":"low","market":"up","exit":"2025-06-16","exit_raw":101.337,"return":0.02551202278776099,"why":"target","sessions":1},{"entry":"2025-06-17","entry_i":949,"entry_raw":99.14,"stop":97.159,"target":102.1115,"adr":1.981000000000001,"regime":"low","market":"up","exit":"2025-06-18","exit_raw":97.159,"return":-0.0229174933834857,"why":"stop","sessions":2},{"entry":"2025-09-25","entry_i":1018,"entry_raw":89.8,"stop":88.1505,"target":92.27425,"adr":1.6494999999999997,"regime":"low","market":"up","exit":"2025-09-25","exit_raw":88.1505,"return":-0.021309078898048672,"why":"stop","sessions":1}]},"holdout":{"N":17,"return_pct":-25.204850994077777,"drawdown_pct":26.74367741416107,"win_rate_pct":23.52941176470588,"avg_win_pct":3.9132918224838606,"avg_loss_pct":3.3546425677941296,"mean_pct":-1.6445403583169556,"quarter_kelly":0,"buyhold_pct":75.16090897149613,"reasons":{"stop":12,"target":3,"gap_stop":1,"gap_target":1},"mean_sessions":1.8823529411764706,"ledger":[{"entry":"2026-01-09","entry_i":1091,"entry_raw":81.35,"stop":79.61749999999999,"target":83.94874999999999,"adr":1.7325000000000004,"regime":"low","market":"up","exit":"2026-01-12","exit_raw":79.61749999999999,"return":-0.02422857576883175,"why":"stop","sessions":2},{"entry":"2026-01-15","entry_i":1095,"entry_raw":84.27,"stop":82.36,"target":87.13499999999999,"adr":1.9100000000000008,"regime":"low","market":"up","exit":"2026-01
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
CF Sep8 06UTC results.json baseline 6/10
Supply chain2026-09-08 06:13
MeasuredSep8 06UTC; JSON concatenation by metricpart. Marketdata throughSep4; outputs conditionalmodels not forecasts. ":4,"stop":3,"gap_stop":1,"time":1,"gap_target":1},"mean_sessions":3.1,"ledger":[{"entry":"2025-01-14","entry_i":843,"entry_raw":91.63,"stop":90.07249999999999,"target":93.96624999999999,"adr":1.5574999999999988,"regime":"high","market":"up","exit":"2025-01-16","exit_raw":93.96624999999999,"return":0.022424681930920176,"why":"target","sessions":3},{"entry":"2025-01-17","entry_i":846,"entry_raw":93.56,"stop":91.9525,"target":95.97125,"adr":1.6074999999999988,"regime":"high","market":"up","exit":"2025-01-21","exit_raw":91.89,"return":-0.020791545285444024,"why":"gap_stop","sessions":2},{"entry":"2025-05-06","entry_i":920,"entry_raw":78.63,"stop":76.37349999999999,"target":82.01474999999999,"adr":2.2565000000000004,"regime":"low","market":"down","exit":"2025-05-12","exit_raw":82.01474999999999,"return":0.039922095717390915,"why":"target","sessions":5},{"entry":"2025-05-14","entry_i":926,"entry_raw":85.26,"stop":83.28450000000001,"target":88.22325000000001,"adr":1.9755000000000003,"regime":"low","market":"up","exit":"2025-05-14","exit_raw":83.28450000000001,"return":-0.02609640108521727,"why":"stop","sessions":1},{"entry":"2025-05-21","entry_i":931,"entry_raw":84.93,"stop":82.828,"target":88.08300000000001,"adr":2.1019999999999994,"regime":"low","market":"up","exit":"2025-05-27","exit_raw":88.08300000000001,"return":0.03401797847120247,"why":"target","sessions":4},{"entry":"2025-05-28","entry_i":935,"entry_raw":88.71,"stop":86.5445,"target":91.95824999999999,"adr":2.1654999999999993,"regime":"low","market":"up","exit":"2025-06-10","exit_raw":89.72,"return":0.008355802834789428,"why":"time","sessions":10},{"entry":"2025-06-12","entry_i":946,"entry_raw":90.94,"stop":89.056,"tar
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
CF Sep8 06UTC results.json baseline 5/10
Supply chain2026-09-08 06:13
MeasuredSep8 06UTC; JSON concatenation by metricpart. Marketdata throughSep4; outputs conditionalmodels not forecasts. egime":"low","market":"up","exit":"2024-09-25","exit_raw":80.1595,"return":-0.01963466882528131,"why":"stop","sessions":1},{"entry":"2024-09-30","entry_i":771,"entry_raw":81.48,"stop":80.06,"target":83.61000000000001,"adr":1.4200000000000017,"regime":"low","market":"up","exit":"2024-10-01","exit_raw":83.61000000000001,"return":0.023067572490394594,"why":"target","sessions":2},{"entry":"2024-10-02","entry_i":773,"entry_raw":83.99,"stop":82.61049999999999,"target":86.05924999999999,"adr":1.3795000000000015,"regime":"low","market":"up","exit":"2024-10-04","exit_raw":86.05924999999999,"return":0.021567556438832458,"why":"gap_target","sessions":3},{"entry":"2024-10-07","entry_i":776,"entry_raw":86.24,"stop":84.83149999999999,"target":88.35275,"adr":1.4085000000000014,"regime":"low","market":"up","exit":"2024-10-07","exit_raw":84.83149999999999,"return":-0.01927891005494764,"why":"stop","sessions":1},{"entry":"2024-11-21","entry_i":809,"entry_raw":86.43,"stop":84.63300000000001,"target":89.1255,"adr":1.7970000000000006,"regime":"low","market":"up","exit":"2024-11-25","exit_raw":84.63300000000001,"return":-0.023724616398792753,"why":"stop","sessions":3},{"entry":"2024-12-04","entry_i":817,"entry_raw":90.77,"stop":88.932,"target":93.52699999999999,"adr":1.8379999999999987,"regime":"low","market":"up","exit":"2024-12-04","exit_raw":88.932,"return":-0.0231838302566183,"why":"stop","sessions":1}]},"validation":{"N":10,"return_pct":6.5786605615380855,"drawdown_pct":4.901797074464076,"win_rate_pct":60.0,"avg_win_pct":2.6369904037238268,"avg_loss_pct":2.2778629663048915,"mean_pct":0.6710490557123394,"quarter_kelly":0.06361883747896059,"buyhold_pct":-7.993238348225051,"reasons":{"target
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
CF Sep8 06UTC results.json baseline 4/10
Supply chain2026-09-08 06:13
MeasuredSep8 06UTC; JSON concatenation by metricpart. Marketdata throughSep4; outputs conditionalmodels not forecasts. :"low","market":"up","exit":"2024-03-01","exit_raw":77.6635,"return":0.026934463905212924,"why":"target","sessions":5},{"entry":"2024-03-04","entry_i":626,"entry_raw":77.38,"stop":75.80199999999999,"target":79.747,"adr":1.5779999999999987,"regime":"low","market":"up","exit":"2024-03-04","exit_raw":75.80199999999999,"return":-0.023327284679950044,"why":"stop","sessions":1},{"entry":"2024-03-08","entry_i":630,"entry_raw":79.67,"stop":77.935,"target":82.2725,"adr":1.7349999999999988,"regime":"low","market":"up","exit":"2024-03-21","exit_raw":80.87,"return":0.012021507353921601,"why":"time","sessions":10},{"entry":"2024-07-31","entry_i":729,"entry_raw":72.75,"stop":71.428,"target":74.733,"adr":1.3220000000000005,"regime":"low","market":"up","exit":"2024-08-02","exit_raw":71.428,"return":-0.021112892764200808,"why":"stop","sessions":3},{"entry":"2024-08-09","entry_i":736,"entry_raw":75.39,"stop":73.799,"target":77.7765,"adr":1.5909999999999989,"regime":"high","market":"up","exit":"2024-08-12","exit_raw":77.7765,"return":0.028565062824783327,"why":"target","sessions":2},{"entry":"2024-08-13","entry_i":738,"entry_raw":76.65,"stop":74.97850000000001,"target":79.15725,"adr":1.6714999999999995,"regime":"high","market":"up","exit":"2024-08-26","exit_raw":78.14,"return":0.016385273583876092,"why":"time","sessions":10},{"entry":"2024-08-30","entry_i":751,"entry_raw":79.35,"stop":77.87249999999999,"target":81.56625,"adr":1.4775000000000005,"regime":"high","market":"up","exit":"2024-09-03","exit_raw":77.87249999999999,"return":-0.02155976663066206,"why":"stop","sessions":2},{"entry":"2024-09-25","entry_i":768,"entry_raw":81.52,"stop":80.1595,"target":83.56075,"adr":1.3605000000000012,"r
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
CF Sep8 06UTC results.json baseline 3/10
Supply chain2026-09-08 06:13
MeasuredSep8 06UTC; JSON concatenation by metricpart. Marketdata throughSep4; outputs conditionalmodels not forecasts. 4999999999993,"regime":"low","market":"up","exit":"2023-02-13","exit_raw":79.8405,"return":-0.029370352840677683,"why":"stop","sessions":1},{"entry":"2023-06-16","entry_i":448,"entry_raw":65.61,"stop":63.7075,"target":68.46375,"adr":1.9024999999999992,"regime":"high","market":"up","exit":"2023-06-27","exit_raw":63.7075,"return":-0.03190574836696192,"why":"stop","sessions":7},{"entry":"2023-07-14","entry_i":466,"entry_raw":68.94,"stop":67.099,"target":71.7015,"adr":1.8409999999999993,"regime":"high","market":"up","exit":"2023-07-18","exit_raw":71.7015,"return":0.03694107601856733,"why":"target","sessions":3},{"entry":"2023-07-19","entry_i":469,"entry_raw":71.38,"stop":69.544,"target":74.134,"adr":1.8359999999999999,"regime":"low","market":"up","exit":"2023-07-24","exit_raw":74.134,"return":0.035471157386005814,"why":"gap_target","sessions":4},{"entry":"2023-07-25","entry_i":473,"entry_raw":75.23,"stop":73.342,"target":78.06200000000001,"adr":1.8880000000000003,"regime":"low","market":"up","exit":"2023-08-04","exit_raw":78.06200000000001,"return":0.03453628698143252,"why":"target","sessions":9},{"entry":"2023-09-26","entry_i":517,"entry_raw":79.97,"stop":78.1995,"target":82.62575,"adr":1.770499999999999,"regime":"low","market":"up","exit":"2023-09-27","exit_raw":78.1995,"return":-0.025068738431386017,"why":"stop","sessions":2},{"entry":"2023-12-22","entry_i":579,"entry_raw":75.34,"stop":73.538,"target":78.043,"adr":1.802000000000001,"regime":"low","market":"up","exit":"2024-01-04","exit_raw":78.043,"return":0.0327743799338045,"why":"gap_target","sessions":8},{"entry":"2024-02-26","entry_i":621,"entry_raw":75.4,"stop":73.891,"target":77.6635,"adr":1.5089999999999997,"regime"
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
CF Sep8 06UTC results.json baseline 2/10
Supply chain2026-09-08 06:13
MeasuredSep8 06UTC; JSON concatenation by metricpart. Marketdata throughSep4; outputs conditionalmodels not forecasts. arket":"down","exit":"2022-03-25","exit_raw":98.5945,"return":0.06684566592340913,"why":"target","sessions":4},{"entry":"2022-03-28","entry_i":141,"entry_raw":96.64,"stop":92.26,"target":103.21000000000001,"adr":4.380000000000001,"regime":"high","market":"down","exit":"2022-03-29","exit_raw":86.82,"return":-0.10430535767091398,"why":"gap_stop","sessions":2},{"entry":"2022-07-28","entry_i":225,"entry_raw":87.24,"stop":84.04249999999999,"target":92.03625,"adr":3.1975000000000016,"regime":"high","market":"down","exit":"2022-08-02","exit_raw":92.03625,"return":0.05181745679105765,"why":"target","sessions":4},{"entry":"2022-08-03","entry_i":229,"entry_raw":91.24,"stop":87.937,"target":96.19449999999999,"adr":3.303000000000001,"regime":"high","market":"down","exit":"2022-08-04","exit_raw":87.937,"return":-0.03908829180924034,"why":"stop","sessions":2},{"entry":"2022-08-10","entry_i":234,"entry_raw":95.7,"stop":92.197,"target":100.95450000000001,"adr":3.503000000000001,"regime":"high","market":"down","exit":"2022-08-15","exit_raw":92.197,"return":-0.039489828599959864,"why":"stop","sessions":4},{"entry":"2022-08-23","entry_i":243,"entry_raw":97.74,"stop":94.51849999999999,"target":102.57225,"adr":3.2215000000000003,"regime":"low","market":"down","exit":"2022-08-24","exit_raw":102.57225,"return":0.0462962378473204,"why":"target","sessions":2},{"entry":"2022-08-25","entry_i":245,"entry_raw":105.65,"stop":102.4825,"target":110.40125,"adr":3.1675000000000004,"regime":"low","market":"down","exit":"2022-08-30","exit_raw":101.99,"return":-0.03753442101158899,"why":"gap_stop","sessions":4},{"entry":"2023-02-13","entry_i":362,"entry_raw":82.01,"stop":79.8405,"target":85.26425,"adr":2.169
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
CF Sep8 06UTC results.json baseline 1/10
Supply chain2026-09-08 06:13
MeasuredSep8 06UTC; JSON concatenation by metricpart. Marketdata throughSep4; outputs conditionalmodels not forecasts. {"train":{"N":32,"return_pct":4.622310952374753,"drawdown_pct":18.41481295422899,"win_rate_pct":50.0,"avg_win_pct":3.9206113454916607,"avg_loss_pct":3.4641732286230527,"mean_pct":0.2282190584343039,"quarter_kelly":0.014552517345077731,"buyhold_pct":26.720148102437523,"reasons":{"stop":14,"target":11,"gap_target":3,"gap_stop":2,"time":2},"mean_sessions":3.65625,"ledger":[{"entry":"2022-02-02","entry_i":105,"entry_raw":66.74,"stop":63.837999999999994,"target":71.09299999999999,"adr":2.9019999999999997,"regime":"high","market":"down","exit":"2022-02-14","exit_raw":63.837999999999994,"return":-0.04634742379069179,"why":"stop","sessions":9},{"entry":"2022-02-25","entry_i":121,"entry_raw":70.97,"stop":67.544,"target":76.109,"adr":3.4259999999999993,"regime":"high","market":"down","exit":"2022-03-01","exit_raw":76.109,"return":0.06919846542701769,"why":"target","sessions":3},{"entry":"2022-03-02","entry_i":124,"entry_raw":76.31,"stop":72.83250000000001,"target":81.52625,"adr":3.477499999999999,"regime":"high","market":"down","exit":"2022-03-04","exit_raw":81.52625,"return":0.06515578155641877,"why":"target","sessions":3},{"entry":"2022-03-07","entry_i":127,"entry_raw":83.58,"stop":80.075,"target":88.8375,"adr":3.505,"regime":"high","market":"down","exit":"2022-03-07","exit_raw":88.8375,"return":0.0597198708166109,"why":"target","sessions":1},{"entry":"2022-03-09","entry_i":128,"entry_raw":80.95,"stop":77.1875,"target":86.59375,"adr":3.7625,"regime":"high","market":"down","exit":"2022-03-09","exit_raw":77.1875,"return":-0.04933558444781494,"why":"stop","sessions":1},{"entry":"2022-03-22","entry_i":137,"entry_raw":92.14,"stop":87.837,"target":98.5945,"adr":4.303,"regime":"high","m
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
EEM QVM90806 sizing covariance EEM_recent_22_1_base = 0
Quant replication2026-09-08 06:13
{"n":9,"p":0.6666666666666666,"weighted_W_pct":0.6753636120965096,"weighted_L_pct":1.6312984462986273,"quarterKelly_weighted":0,"mean_weighted_pct":-0.09352374070186928,"mean_unit_pct":-0.30025162216664647,"weight_return_cov":0.0006280603897663059,"mean_weight":0.5206625647861918,"mean_unit_times_mean_weight_pct":-0.15632977967850073} Weightedreturns represent payoffofentirecashsleeve, notonlyinvestedpart. Arithmeticmean(w*r)=mean(w)*mean(r)+cov(w,r); thiscovariancecan reverseunitpayoffedge. Actualallocation0.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; QVM90806 weighted.py/ledgers.json
EEM QVM90806 sizing covariance EEM_holdout_22_1_base = 0
Quant replication2026-09-08 06:13
{"n":60,"p":0.4666666666666667,"weighted_W_pct":0.818007438389351,"weighted_L_pct":1.303912058312398,"quarterKelly_weighted":0,"mean_weighted_pct":-0.3136829598515819,"mean_unit_pct":-0.45609735267125984,"weight_return_cov":0.0007177110301378117,"mean_weight":0.8451135719333723,"mean_unit_times_mean_weight_pct":-0.38545406286536343} Weightedreturns represent payoffofentirecashsleeve, notonlyinvestedpart. Arithmeticmean(w*r)=mean(w)*mean(r)+cov(w,r); thiscovariancecan reverseunitpayoffedge. Actualallocation0.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; QVM90806 weighted.py/ledgers.json
EEM QVM90806 sizing covariance EEM_train_22_1_base = 0.06584584414936305
Quant replication2026-09-08 06:13
{"n":24,"p":0.7083333333333334,"weighted_W_pct":0.8761438585218292,"weighted_L_pct":1.336594875235529,"quarterKelly_weighted":0.06584584414936305,"mean_weighted_pct":0.23076172784259977,"mean_unit_pct":1.0140649178240537,"weight_return_cov":-0.0050381859930235685,"mean_weight":0.7243918157835422,"mean_unit_times_mean_weight_pct":0.7345803271449547} Weightedreturns represent payoffofentirecashsleeve, notonlyinvestedpart. Arithmeticmean(w*r)=mean(w)*mean(r)+cov(w,r); thiscovariancecan reverseunitpayoffedge. Actualallocation0.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; QVM90806 weighted.py/ledgers.json
EFA QVM90806 sizing covariance EFA_recent_22_1_base = 0
Quant replication2026-09-08 06:13
{"n":9,"p":0.5555555555555556,"weighted_W_pct":0.5391210396651003,"weighted_L_pct":1.0839221952595595,"quarterKelly_weighted":0,"mean_weighted_pct":-0.18223150919030412,"mean_unit_pct":-0.4402736052345902,"weight_return_cov":0.0005467176187534095,"mean_weight":0.5380819296205966,"mean_unit_times_mean_weight_pct":-0.2369032710656451} Weightedreturns represent payoffofentirecashsleeve, notonlyinvestedpart. Arithmeticmean(w*r)=mean(w)*mean(r)+cov(w,r); thiscovariancecan reverseunitpayoffedge. Actualallocation0.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; QVM90806 weighted.py/ledgers.json
EFA QVM90806 sizing covariance EFA_holdout_22_1_base = 0
Quant replication2026-09-08 06:13
{"n":60,"p":0.5166666666666667,"weighted_W_pct":0.44835950556390725,"weighted_L_pct":0.805992515482285,"quarterKelly_weighted":0,"mean_weighted_pct":-0.1579106379417524,"mean_unit_pct":-0.2951614508879591,"weight_return_cov":0.0002597045534223983,"mean_weight":0.6229847858885602,"mean_unit_times_mean_weight_pct":-0.18388109328399196} Weightedreturns represent payoffofentirecashsleeve, notonlyinvestedpart. Arithmeticmean(w*r)=mean(w)*mean(r)+cov(w,r); thiscovariancecan reverseunitpayoffedge. Actualallocation0.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; QVM90806 weighted.py/ledgers.json
EFA QVM90806 sizing covariance EFA_train_22_1_base = 0.015273869152235858
Quant replication2026-09-08 06:13
{"n":24,"p":0.7083333333333334,"weighted_W_pct":0.4055777329546049,"weighted_L_pct":0.9000180432434588,"quarterKelly_weighted":0.015273869152235858,"mean_weighted_pct":0.024778964896836342,"mean_unit_pct":0.8281471650369835,"weight_return_cov":-0.0045078468843126945,"mean_weight":0.5742501736474179,"mean_unit_times_mean_weight_pct":0.4755636533281047} Weightedreturns represent payoffofentirecashsleeve, notonlyinvestedpart. Arithmeticmean(w*r)=mean(w)*mean(r)+cov(w,r); thiscovariancecan reverseunitpayoffedge. Actualallocation0.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; QVM90806 weighted.py/ledgers.json
SPY QVM90806 sizing covariance SPY_recent_22_1_base = 0
Quant replication2026-09-08 06:13
{"n":9,"p":0.5555555555555556,"weighted_W_pct":0.2934095344986387,"weighted_L_pct":0.7497853220957751,"quarterKelly_weighted":0,"mean_weighted_pct":-0.17023262398776742,"mean_unit_pct":-0.08673066371242025,"weight_return_cov":-0.0012455148906082712,"mean_weight":0.5267010878460157,"mean_unit_times_mean_weight_pct":-0.0456811349269387} Weightedreturns represent payoffofentirecashsleeve, notonlyinvestedpart. Arithmeticmean(w*r)=mean(w)*mean(r)+cov(w,r); thiscovariancecan reverseunitpayoffedge. Actualallocation0.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; QVM90806 weighted.py/ledgers.json
SPY QVM90806 sizing covariance SPY_holdout_22_1_base = 0
Quant replication2026-09-08 06:13
{"n":60,"p":0.5166666666666667,"weighted_W_pct":0.3107787223431782,"weighted_L_pct":0.5883557219831091,"quarterKelly_weighted":0,"mean_weighted_pct":-0.12380292574786067,"mean_unit_pct":-0.1602257016407246,"weight_return_cov":-0.0005454500448365578,"mean_weight":0.432252257627826,"mean_unit_times_mean_weight_pct":-0.06925792126420567} Weightedreturns represent payoffofentirecashsleeve, notonlyinvestedpart. Arithmeticmean(w*r)=mean(w)*mean(r)+cov(w,r); thiscovariancecan reverseunitpayoffedge. Actualallocation0.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; QVM90806 weighted.py/ledgers.json
SPY QVM90806 sizing covariance SPY_train_22_1_base = 0
Quant replication2026-09-08 06:13
{"n":24,"p":0.6666666666666666,"weighted_W_pct":0.3232984768049091,"weighted_L_pct":0.7232405066647227,"quarterKelly_weighted":0,"mean_weighted_pct":-0.0255478510183015,"mean_unit_pct":0.9361727583329692,"weight_return_cov":-0.004377340858043925,"mean_weight":0.44028864450196686,"mean_unit_times_mean_weight_pct":0.41218623478609046} Weightedreturns represent payoffofentirecashsleeve, notonlyinvestedpart. Arithmeticmean(w*r)=mean(w)*mean(r)+cov(w,r); thiscovariancecan reverseunitpayoffedge. Actualallocation0.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; QVM90806 weighted.py/ledgers.json