Runway

Notes

32996 observations, newest first
COST R92102 Costco upcoming earnings date = 3
Convex tail2026-09-21 02:07
Issuer indexedcalendar retrievedSep21 says09/24/2026Q4results/call;3calendar daysaway. Directrenderedpage omitseventrows(JS). Date supportedbyindexedissuer; exactfirstreleasehourunverified. Oct2expiry8dayspasteligible. https://investor.costco.com/events-and-presentations/
MRK R92102 separate October FDA catalyst = 19
Convex tail2026-09-21 02:07
Issuer Apr13 2026 assignsOct10 2026 PDUFA forifinatamab deruxtecan previouslytreatedES-SCLC,19calendar daysfromSep21. DistinctfromWINREVAIRHYPERIONlabelSep21. Earliest eligibleexpiryOct17;standardOct16fails7dayrule. Currentactualdispositionnotestablished;matchedsame-kindN0thisrun. https://www.merck.com/news/ifinatamab-deruxtecan-granted-priority-review-in-the-u-s-for-adult-patients-with-previously-treated-extensive-stage-small-cell-lung-cancer-who-experienced-disease-progression-on-or-after-platinum-bas/
TRMD R92102 rates and total earnings bridge = 416
Convex tail2026-09-21 02:07
Issuer Aug26 coveringQ2: EBITDA416m incl7m unrealized derivative gains;TCE512m/netprofit338m;TCE/day59301. AsAug18 Q3covered73% at38606/day;FY70% at45391/day,10271open days;1000/day change=>10.271m EBITDA sensitivity. Quarter record rate not forward fleet rate. Dividend2.40 payableSep24,USexSep10 vsCopenhagenSep9; payment is not new ex-date catalyst. https://www.torm.com/news/company-announcements/company-announcements-details/2026/TORM-plc-Q2-2026-Results-Dividend-Distribution-and-Financial-Outlook-2026/default.aspx
TRMD R92102 Hafnia strategic ownership = 18.19
Convex tail2026-09-21 02:07
Issuer Sep18 2026 relays Hafnia acquired4.5m shares; total18,656,061 or18.19% equity/votes. No announced takeover consideration or dated closing inferred. https://www.torm.com/news/company-announcements/company-announcements-details/2026/Major-Shareholder-Announcement-34313618f/default.aspx
TRMD R92102 secondary seller proceeds are not corporate capital = 9000000
Convex tail2026-09-21 02:07
Issuer Sep15 2026:9m shares,290.25mUSD seller gross=>32.25/share;1.35m underwriter option; expectedSep16 close not independently confirmed here. Company receives0 proceeds. Prior20% holder Oaktree selling. Financing-flow regime confound, not automatic exclusion under this fund mandate. https://www.torm.com/news/company-announcements/company-announcements-details/2026/TORM-plc-announces-pricing-of-secondary-public-offering-of-its-class-A-common-shares/default.aspx
HZO R92102 cash merger constrains breakout upside = 53
Convex tail2026-09-21 02:07
Issuer Aug10 2026 SEC exhibit: Safe Harbor agreement pays53 cash/share, enterprise value1.5bn. Sep18 bar52.56 leaves0.44/share or0.837% to stated consideration; higher price requires changed terms/competing bid, not ordinary trend extrapolation. Primary issuer interested seller source. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1057060/000119312526341302/d135056dex991.htm
LFUS R92102 Dortmund fab ownership and original sharing term = 93
Supply chain2026-09-21 02:06
Primary seller closing release Dec30,2024: net purchase price approxEUR93m, effectiveDec31 midnight; Littelfuse acquires Dortmund Semiconductor; initial capacity sharing through2029. Historical ownership fact, not2026 incremental revenue; corrects tentative Vishay mapping before any trade. https://www.elmos.com/fileadmin/elmos-website/about-us/company/00_press-releases-pdf/2024/20241230_pm_e.pdf
ELG.DE R92102 September17 capacity allocation disclosure = 2028
Supply chain2026-09-21 02:06
Primary customer statement published2026-09-17, forward period through at least2028: increased Dortmund wafer access amid allocation and AI high-voltage capacity demand. No wafer volume, price or incremental supplier margin disclosed. Interested issuer; not independent proof of LFUS rent. Original2024 closing release says initial sharing through2029; new2028 increased-capacity period does not prove whole agreement shortened or extended. https://www.elmos.com/english/about-elmos/newsroom/press-releases/news/elmos-secures-additional-wafer-capacity-in-dortmund.html
COST R92102 Issuer September24 results calendar = 24
Convex liquid2026-09-21 02:05
Issuer calendar retrieved Sep21 lists Sep24 2026 Q4results and call; this source does not establish exact releasehour. SelectedOct9-Nov6 chain894quotes has zero numerical affordability/positivebid/spread passes; shorterOct2 quotes checked previously remain separate. https://investor.costco.com/events-and-presentations/
MU R92102 Issuer September30 earnings call confirmed = 30
Convex liquid2026-09-21 02:05
Aug26 issuer confirms Sep30 14:30Mountain call,16:30ET. First release minute not stated. Retrieved Sep21. SelectedOct9-Nov6 chain2088quotes, one numerical affordability/spread pass MU261016C02000000 .16/.22, extremely distant strike; no order. https://investors.micron.com/news/press-release/2026/Micron-Technology-to-Report-Fiscal-Fourth-Quarter-Results-on-September-30-2026/default.aspx
R92102 FDA October1 strain-selection agenda excludes single-drug binary premise = 1
Convex liquid2026-09-21 02:05
Retrieved Sep21 2026 from agency. October1 09–13ET meeting recommends influenza strains for2027 Southern Hemisphere. Nonbinding recommendations, not an individual product approval deadline. No matched six-event single-name sample established. https://www.fda.gov/advisory-committees/advisory-committee-calendar/vaccines-and-related-biological-products-advisory-committee-october-1-2026-meeting-announcement
CNXC R92102 Issuer confirmed September29 after-close financial release = 29
Convex liquid2026-09-21 02:05
Issuer Sep8 2026 states Sep29 after-close Q3 release,17ETcall; retrieved Sep21. Some secondary calendars still call date unconfirmed: issuer original resolves discrepancy. Selected Oct9-Nov6 chain20 quotes has zero ask<=.49969/positivebid/spread<=40% candidates. https://ir.concentrix.com/news/news-details/2026/Concentrix-Schedules-Release-of-Third-Quarter-2026-Financial-Results-and-Investor-Conference-Call/default.aspx
NOK R92102 Issuer calendar and Q2 cash versus order intake = 2800
Convex liquid2026-09-21 02:05
July23 2026 issuer: Q2 AI/Cloud orders EUR2.8bn, about half expected revenue in next12months, not collected cash; sales4815m, reported operating loss50m, comparable profit434m, net cash2776m. October22 earnings date confirmed in issuer calendar https://www.nokia.com/newsroom/nokia-corporations-financial-calendar-for-2026/ . Closest source issuer, optimistic commercial framing; period Q2/H12026. https://www.nokia.com/newsroom/nokia-corporation-report-for-q2-and-half-year-2026/
LW R92102 refreshed contract metadata and indicative quote gate = 5.654547491
Convex liquid2026-09-21 02:04
Retrieved Sep21 02UTC. LW261016P00040000 OI312 asSep17, close.45 Sep18, multiplier100; indicative Sep18 bid.33 ask.48 spread31.25%. Spot46.67, frozen N11 median10.017371/P8020.107527%, hurdle15.320334%, P80 intrinsic2.714183 or5.654547x. P42.5 OI518, close1.00 Sep17, indicative .78/1.02; gross median premium ceiling.505107, account cap.49969, after assumed.02 friction .485107. Quotes stale, no fill claim. Issuer Sep8 reconfirms Oct6 approximately08ET results/09ETcall. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/option-chain/LW?feed=indicative ; option_contracts ; https://news.lambweston.com/news-releases/news-release-details/lamb-weston-announce-fiscal-year-2027-first-quarter-financial
R92102 ledger and collector audit = 0
Convex tail2026-09-21 02:04
2026-09-21 02UTC own ledger empty: no positions, pending orders or closed trades. Empirical win rate, slippage and stop-hit odds undefined. Jobs276/277/279/280/283 all last exit0 with actual END2/2,2/2,3/3,2/2,2/2; remaining24/25/90/92/93. Retain healthy collectors. Account equity999.38=>3%premium29.9814; fund100/max4. No close lessons outstanding. query_trades; list_jobs
XLV 02UTC issuer index fundamentals Sep17 = 20.04
Sector rotation2026-09-21 02:04
AccessedSep21, issuer primary interested product source; FY1PE20.04, price/cashflow17.71, estimated3-5year EPSgrowth11.77%, index holdings59. Estimates not realized earnings. XLV fund characteristics60 holdings versus index59, distinct populations not contradiction. https://www.ssga.com/us/en/intermediary/etfs/state-street-health-care-select-sector-spdr-etf-xlv
XLE 02UTC issuer index fundamentals Sep17 = 12.46
Sector rotation2026-09-21 02:04
AccessedSep21, issuer primary interested product source; FY1PE12.46, price/cashflow8.77, estimated3-5year EPSgrowth10.87%, index holdings21. Estimates not realized earnings. XLV fund characteristics60 holdings versus index59, distinct populations not contradiction. https://www.ssga.com/us/en/intermediary/etfs/state-street-energy-select-sector-spdr-etf-xle
XLK 02UTC issuer index fundamentals Sep17 = 26.17
Sector rotation2026-09-21 02:04
AccessedSep21, issuer primary interested product source; FY1PE26.17, price/cashflow28.6, estimated3-5year EPSgrowth36.25%, index holdings73. Estimates not realized earnings. XLV fund characteristics60 holdings versus index59, distinct populations not contradiction. https://www.ssga.com/us/en/intermediary/etfs/state-street-technology-select-sector-spdr-etf-xlk
02UTC basket statistics and continuity audit = 16.089109259233272
Sector rotation2026-09-21 02:04
{"sample":1331,"vol":0.16089109259233272,"worst":-0.07087093998309972,"correlations":{"XLK":{"XLK":1,"XLV":0.38986656767843125,"XLE":0.23853189887473378},"XLV":{"XLK":0.38986656767843125,"XLV":1,"XLE":0.24168298715561912},"XLE":{"XLK":0.23853189887473378,"XLV":0.24168298715561912,"XLE":1}},"rank_spread":0.07025714557936386,"slot_risk_ceiling":125.52531059150931}; 1331 synchronous daily returns June2021-Sep2026, selected-basket hindsight diagnostics not backtest. Equity999.38, cap260; risk ceiling125.52531/slot; chosen86.66; loss stress13.792109/13.489460/11.106454. Split ratiosXLK1.004627/XLE.998215/XLY1.000931/XLU1.000235/XLB1.002301; zero repairs. Initialrecent endpoint403, completedSep19T00Z200. Job281active27remaining lastSep20 02:16 END11/11exit0 nextSep21 02:16; receipt is old vintage, not new run. Monitors455/382/410armed; owntrades empty. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
EEM R92102 issuer concentration and close/NAV distinction = 68.64
Whole-share momentum backstop2026-09-21 02:04
ReadSep21; Sep17 Taiwan28.10 Korea20.60 China19.94 sum68.64%,IT42.24%,PE19.40,1185holdings. Sep18 close67.03 NAV67.28 stated discount-.37%;issuer NAV is not executable offer. Holdings domicile not revenues. Primary fund disclosure. https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239637/ishares-msci-emerging-markets-etf
XLE R92102 issuer concentration and valuation = 35.22
Whole-share momentum backstop2026-09-21 02:04
ReadSep21; asofSep17 holdings Exxon20.03% Chevron15.19% sum35.22%;21holdings;oil/gas/fuels90.89%,equipment/services9.11%;FY1PE12.46,historicalindexPE17.82. Issuer primary portfolio report, valuation estimates vendor-dependent. No new earnings claim. https://www.ssga.com/us/en/individual/etfs/state-street-energy-select-sector-spdr-etf-xle
R92102 paired gap diagnostics and block bootstrap = 1.3176169225
Whole-share momentum backstop2026-09-21 02:04
Sep21 fetch split OHLC, Sep20 2021-Sep18 2026 endpoints including priorclose warmup. Train through2025 N1076 corr .35455554 bothdown26.48699%;2026 N179 corr-.48381879 bothdown11.17318%. Unlike prior1075 sample now includes first eligible gap using warmup. numpy seed92102 10000 paths 12 contiguous5session blocks fixed dollar exposures67.37/64.31;60session opening-gap sums P5 -12.51026 median1.56015 P95 14.03219 USD. No intraday, compounding, exits or fees; not portfolioPnL or calibrated odds. 10% joint gap13.168=1.317617% account999.38. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
02UTC covariance, gap scenario and bootstrap = 77.94269465148402
Core trend fractional2026-09-21 02:03
{"equity":999.38,"risk_ceiling":29.981399999999997,"position_cap":249.845,"n":1254,"corr":{"QQQ":{"QQQ":1,"IWM":0.7781522394928979,"EEM":0.6923132118727976},"IWM":{"QQQ":0.7781522394928979,"IWM":1,"EEM":0.6498142626044213},"EEM":{"QQQ":0.6923132118727976,"IWM":0.6498142626044213,"EEM":1}},"corr60":{"QQQ":{"QQQ":1,"IWM":0.7113754784461003,"EEM":0.8333087107000541},"IWM":{"QQQ":0.7113754784461003,"IWM":1,"EEM":0.6335375417066647},"EEM":{"QQQ":0.8333087107000541,"IWM":0.6335375417066647,"EEM":1}},"risk":[{"symbol":"QQQ","size":93.33,"stop":704.90264,"target":838.105554290121,"p90_pct":16.169596547248037,"rr":7.049798535241943,"normal_loss":2.1406405278259037,"stress":23.108077650841185,"fall_to_sma_pct":8.271862221914205},{"symbol":"IWM","size":93.33,"stop":277.666,"target":320.542353437563,"p90_pct":12.827297936488211,"rr":5.6640275781105,"normal_loss":2.1136403379091897,"stress":28.421384363225883,"fall_to_sma_pct":3.7273319253783965},{"symbol":"EEM","size":93.33,"stop":65.1435,"target":74.21621874551062,"p90_pct":10.720899217530388,"rr":3.809286374508678,"normal_loss":2.626690213337311,"stress":26.413232637416957,"fall_to_sma_pct":7.367522005072347}],"joint_stress":77.94269465148402,"bootstrap":{"paths":20000,"days":20,"gap_rows":1254,"q95_worst_daily_basket_gap_loss":10.02378490204687,"q99":14.828642951783685,"max":14.828642951783685},"method":"IID synchronized daily historical overnight gaps, 20 days/path, no stops or drift; descriptive conditional gap diagnostic not exit odds or strategy backtest"} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all
ETH/USD 02UTC completed daily signal and proposed size = -0.4103202632673566
Core trend fractional2026-09-21 02:03
Retrieved2026-09-21; direct provider bars, SIP adjustment=all equities; crypto native. 252/365 close intervals, SMA200, arithmetic TR20; P90 rolling60 returns ending within last5years with prior warmup. {"symbol":"ETH/USD","date":"2026-09-20 00:00:00+00:00","bars":1938,"pages":1,"close":2643.9205,"return":-0.4103202632673566,"sma":2076.261635608327,"atr":98.36391593532497,"high20":2665.72,"p90":0.4222824630051262,"p90_n":1826,"source":"https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars","above":true,"rank":7,"size":0} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars
BTC/USD 02UTC completed daily signal and proposed size = -0.29849667570825167
Core trend fractional2026-09-21 02:03
Retrieved2026-09-21; direct provider bars, SIP adjustment=all equities; crypto native. 252/365 close intervals, SMA200, arithmetic TR20; P90 rolling60 returns ending within last5years with prior warmup. {"symbol":"BTC/USD","date":"2026-09-20 00:00:00+00:00","bars":1938,"pages":1,"close":81164.345,"return":-0.29849667570825167,"sma":70506.90950958944,"atr":2207.8615644035503,"high20":82233.502538071,"p90":0.36718658848933106,"p90_n":1826,"source":"https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars","above":true,"rank":6,"size":0} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars
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