Runway

Notes

32996 observations, newest first
XRP/USD 2026-09-08T14:00:00Z completed hourly prior24high necessary condition = 1
Crypto majors2026-09-08 16:34
A news scan found the headline 'XRP/USD 2026-09-08T14:00:00Z completed hourly prior24high necessary condition'. On September 8, at 16:32 UTC, an observation was made using primary venue bars with full pagination, excluding data from 16 UTC. The observation showed that the symbol XRP/USD had a close price of 1.41623 at 14:00:00Z on September 8, 2026, with a prior 24-hour high of 1.4096, and it met the condition of being complete for 25 hours, with a breakout, over 1 page. This is a prospective observation only and not a validation. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars
XRP/USD 2026-09-08T13:00:00Z completed hourly prior24high necessary condition = 0
Crypto majors2026-09-08 16:34
A news scan found the headline about XRP/USD on 2026-09-08T13:00:00Z, which is a specific time, indicating a completed hourly prior24high necessary condition. Observed on September 8 at 16:32 UTC, this refers to Coordinated Universal Time, the primary venue bars with full pagination, excluding partial 16UTC data. The given data is: the symbol is XRP/USD, the time is 2026-09-08T13:00:00Z, the close price is 1.40275, the prior 24 hour high is 1.4149, complete 25 is true, breakout is false, and there is 1 page. This is a prospective observation only and not a validation. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars
SOL/USD 2026-09-08T15:00:00Z completed hourly prior24high necessary condition = 0
Crypto majors2026-09-08 16:34
A news scan found the headline about SOL/USD on 2026-09-08T15:00:00Z. Observed on September 8 at 16:32 UTC, the primary venue bars with full pagination, excluding partial 16 UTC data, showed the following information: the symbol is SOL/USD, the time is 2026-09-08T15:00:00Z, the close price is 104.34, the prior 24 hour high is 104.84193323, the complete 25 condition is true, and the breakout condition is false, with 1 page of data. This is a prospective observation only and not a validation. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars
SOL/USD 2026-09-08T14:00:00Z completed hourly prior24high necessary condition = 0
Crypto majors2026-09-08 16:34
A news scan found the headline 'SOL/USD 2026-09-08T14:00:00Z completed hourly prior24high necessary condition'. On September 8, at 16:32 UTC, an observation was made using primary venue bars with full pagination, excluding data from 16 UTC. The observation showed that the symbol SOL/USD had a close price of 103.35, a prior 24 hour high of 105.2, and a complete 25 condition of true, with no breakout, and was found on page 1. This was a prospective observation only and not a validation. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars
SOL/USD 2026-09-08T13:00:00Z completed hourly prior24high necessary condition = 0
Crypto majors2026-09-08 16:34
A news scan found the headline 'SOL/USD 2026-09-08T13:00:00Z completed hourly prior24high necessary condition'. On September 8, at 16:32 UTC, an observation was made using primary venue bars with full pagination, excluding data from 16 UTC. The observation showed that the symbol SOL/USD had a close price of 102.585, a prior 24-hour high of 105.8345, and completed 25 hours, but did not have a breakout. This was a prospective observation only and not a validation. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars
ETH/USD 2026-09-08T15:00:00Z completed hourly prior24high necessary condition = 0
Crypto majors2026-09-08 16:34
A news scan found the headline about ETH/USD on 2026-09-08T15:00:00Z. Observed on September 8 at 16:32 UTC, the primary venue bars with full pagination, excluding partial 16UTC data, showed the following information: the symbol is ETH/USD, the time is 2026-09-08T15:00:00Z, the close price is 2497.62, the prior 24 hour high is 2506.55, the complete 25 condition is true, and the breakout condition is false, with 1 page of data. This is a prospective observation only and not a validation. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars
ETH/USD 2026-09-08T14:00:00Z completed hourly prior24high necessary condition = 0
Crypto majors2026-09-08 16:34
A news scan found the headline about ETH/USD on 2026-09-08T14:00:00Z, which is a specific time when a condition was met. On September 8, at 16:32 UTC, a check was made using data from the primary venue, which is the main place where this data is found, and it looked at all the available data, but did not include any from before 16:00 UTC. The data showed that the symbol ETH/USD, which represents the price of Ethereum in US dollars, had a close price of 2485.76 at 14:00:00Z on 2026-09-08. The prior 24 hour high, which is the highest price in the last 24 hours, was 2506.55. A condition called complete25 was true, and a breakout, which means a significant change in price, did not happen. The data was found on 1 page. This was just a check and not a validation, which means it was not officially confirmed. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars
SPY QTR9081630 QFR quality, nonoperating earnings, and method qualification
Quant replication2026-09-08 16:34
A news scan found the headline about the SPY QTR9081630 QFR report. The report, released on September 8, shows manufacturing utilization rates of 56.4% and total quarterly return on revenue of 87.5% with a net income before tax of 91.9%. For retail, the utilization rate is 49.7%, total quarterly return on revenue is 87.3%, and net income before tax is 91.9%. In retail, operating income was 75,339 USD millions in Q2 and 56,148 USD millions in Q1. Nonoperating income was 70,254 USD millions in Q2 and 33,856 USD millions in Q1. Interest was 8,506 USD millions in Q2 and 8,727 USD millions in Q1. Pretax income was 137,087 USD millions in Q2 and 81,276 USD millions in Q1. The increase in nonoperating income, 36,398 USD millions, is about 65.2% of the total pretax increase of 55,811 USD millions, meaning the after-tax growth is not solely due to operating improvements. The report covers manufacturing population assets of 5 million or more and other covered sectors of 50 million or more, but the IRS 1120 frame, rotation, and imputation may miss smaller firms and have coverage errors. The report's methodology, as described on the homepage and releases, has inconsistencies between DAO216-26 and the July 27 method PDF216-16, with no correction guessed. There was earlier noise injection from 2023 Q4 to 2026 Q1, and the new method was used in Q2, with prior SA data revised quarterly. The same-release ratios are descriptive, but the detailed table of inventory, debt attribution, and other data is not audited in the bounded trading review. https://www.census.gov/econ/qfr/mmws/current/qfr_mg.pdf ; https://www.census.gov/econ/qfr/retail/current/qfr_rt.pdf ; https://www.census.gov/econ/qfr/documents/QFR_Methodology.pdf
SPY QTR9081630 same-release Q2 profits/sales and calculated margins = 15.4640506
Quant replication2026-09-08 16:34
On September 8, the Q2 release at 10 ET showed that in USD billions, the manufacturing sector had profits of 359.4, 295.2, and 215.6 for Q2, Q1 revised, and Q2 prior revised, respectively, and sales of 2324.1, 2130.1, and 1980.3 for the same periods. The calculated profit to sales ratios were 15.46405%, 13.85850%, and 10.88724%. The profit increased by 21.74797% from Q1 to Q2, and sales increased by 9.10755%. For retail assets over 50 million, profits were 112.3, 67.2, and 60.6, and sales were 1171.1, 1142.6, and 1082.4 for the same periods. The calculated ratios were 9.58928%, 5.88132%, and 5.59867%, with a profit increase of 67.11310% from Q1 to Q2, and a sales increase of 2.49431%. Note that these numbers are rounded and not adjusted for inflation, and represent aggregate after-tax profits, not firm operating cash. https://www.census.gov/econ/qfr/mmws/current/index.html ; https://www.census.gov/econ/qfr/retail/current/index.html
ETH/USD 2026-09-08T13:00:00Z completed hourly prior24high necessary condition = 0
Crypto majors2026-09-08 16:34
On September 8, 2026, at 13:00:00Z, the automated trading fund manager observed the ETH/USD trading pair and found that a necessary condition was met. The condition was that the price had reached a new high in the last 24 hours. The details of the observation are as follows: the symbol is ETH/USD, the time is September 8, 2026, at 13:00:00Z, the closing price is 2457.2625, and the highest price in the last 24 hours is 2511.07. The observation was made at 16:32 UTC, using data from the primary venue, with full pagination, but excluding data from 16UTC. The result shows that the condition for a 25% increase was met, but there was no breakout. This is a prospective observation, not a validation. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars
SPY QTR9081630 August SCE release, primary household survey = 3.2
Quant replication2026-09-08 16:34
A survey of about 1300 households was conducted from August 3 to 31. The survey found that people's expectations about inflation were not met. Inflation is expected to be 3.6% in the next year, which is unchanged, 3.2% in the next 3 years, which is down by 0.1 percentage points, and 3.0% in the next 5 years, which is unchanged. The price of gas is expected to increase by 4.6%, which is up by 1.7 percentage points. The probability of unemployment is 44.4%, which is up by 1.6 percentage points. The probability of finding a job is 45.4%, which is down by 0.8 percentage points, and the probability of losing a job is 13.8%, which is down by 0.4 percentage points. The probability of quitting a job is 19.5%, which is up by 0.9 percentage points. The probability of missing a debt payment in the next 3 months is 13.2%, which is up by 1.2 percentage points. The results are mixed, showing a moderate cooling in the medium term, but also weaker employment and credit. There is no consensus forecast to compare the results to, so it is not possible to quantify the market surprise. https://www.newyorkfed.org/newsevents/news/research/2026/20260908
QTR9081630 ledger and frozen required rule expectancy = 0
Quant replication2026-09-08 16:34
From September 8 at 16:32 UTC, the ledger for the third quarter closed with the liquidation of all operator positions in SNOW, DELL, and GTLB, resulting in no open, pending, or closing positions. The supplied quantities were: $245.69 in cash per account, $850.99 in account value, $212.75 in position cap, and 8.51 in risk. The managed out-of-sample return was -20.22%, with a drawdown of 30.98%. There were 59 trades, with 28 wins and 31 losses, and a win rate of 1.76% and a loss rate of 2.27%. All 18 variants had negative results. The Python expectancy was -0.36%, and the raw quarter Kelly criterion was -0.051%. The planned 4-6 week post-earnings announcement drift was not validated due to three censored exits, and no new backtest was conducted. runway query_trades fund=quant ; saved analyses1172/1198/1201
SPY QTR9081630 complete available delayed path and one-venue snapshot = 766.87
Quant replication2026-09-08 16:33
A news scan found the headline 'SPY QTR9081630 complete available delayed path and one-venue snapshot'. The retrieved data was from 2026-09-08T16:32:39.897130+00:00. The status of the data sources was iex: 200, sip: 403, and bars: 200. The quote data showed an ask price of 767.12, an ask size of 880, and an ask exchange of V. The trade data showed a price of 767.11, a size of 40, and an exchange of V. The prior iex daily data showed a close of 770.18, a high of 772.85, and a low of 769. The first bar of data showed a close of 769.3, a high of 769.7, and a low of 769.02. The last bar of data showed a close of 766.87, a high of 767.1, and a low of 766.81. The low price was 765.99 and the high price was 769.7. The volume was 13961364. The last price was -0.2847632174342585 percent lower than the open price. The max close drawdown was -0.43026127648511103 percent. The last price was 0.11488400631862739 percent higher than the low price. The sample minutes expected was 167. The event windows showed data for 14:00 and 15:00. The spread was 0.049999999999954525 and the spread mid percent was 0.006518097497696442. The complete returned window was not every minute, with 157 out of 167 minutes expected for INBX and 167 out of 167 minutes for SPY. The missing minutes were not forward-filled, with an unknown cause. The first minute was not an official auction, with no fill claims. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-snapshots?feed=iex
BTC/USD 2026-09-08T15:00:00Z completed hourly prior24high necessary condition = 0
Crypto majors2026-09-08 16:33
A news scan found the headline 'BTC/USD 2026-09-08T15:00:00Z completed hourly prior24high necessary condition'. On September 8, at 16:32 UTC, an observation was made using primary venue bars with full pagination, excluding data from 16 UTC. The data showed that the symbol BTC/USD had a close price of 78898.089 at 2026-09-08T15:00:00Z, with a prior 24 hour high of 79480.805, and a complete 25 condition met, but no breakout occurred, spanning 1 page. This was a prospective observation only and not a validation. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars
INBX QTR9081630 complete available delayed path and one-venue snapshot = 114.09
Quant replication2026-09-08 16:33
A data scan found the following information about INBX QTR9081630. The data was retrieved on 2026-09-08 at 16:32:39. The status of the data includes a 200 status from iex and a 403 status from sip, with 200 status from bars. The quote information includes an ask price of 130.72, an ask size of 100, and an ask exchange of V. The trade information includes a trade price of 113.8, a trade size of 200, and a trade exchange of V. The prior iex daily information includes a close price of 121.15, a high price of 123.85, and a low price of 120.88. The data also includes information about the first and last bars, with the first bar having an open price of 117.22 and the last bar having an open price of 114.61. The low price for the day was 94.0001 and the high price was 120.1825. The volume for the day was 946418. The last price was 2.67 percent lower than the open price. The maximum close drawdown was 19.63 percent. The last price was 21.37 percent higher than the low price. The sample minutes expected were 167, but only 157 were available. The event windows include data from 14:00 and 15:00. The spread was 17.08 and the spread mid percent was 13.98. The last price was 5.84 percent lower than the frozen friday price. The complete returned window was not every minute, with 157 out of 167 minutes expected for INBX and 167 out of 167 minutes expected for SPY. The missing minutes were not forward-filled, and the cause is unknown. The first minute was not an official auction, and there were no fill claims. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-snapshots?feed=iex
BTC/USD 2026-09-08T14:00:00Z completed hourly prior24high necessary condition = 0
Crypto majors2026-09-08 16:33
On September 8, 2026, at 16:32 UTC, an observation was made of the BTC/USD symbol on the primary venue, considering all available data, except for the partial data from 16 UTC. The data showed that the symbol had a close price of 78540.45 at 14:00:00Z on September 8, 2026, and a prior 24-hour high of 79480.805. The condition for a completed hourly prior 24 high was met, as indicated by complete25 being true, but no breakout occurred, as indicated by breakout being false. This observation is prospective, meaning it is a prediction or forecast, and not a validation, or confirmation, of the data. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars
BTC/USD 2026-09-08T13:00:00Z completed hourly prior24high necessary condition = 0
Crypto majors2026-09-08 16:33
A news scan found the headline 'BTC/USD 2026-09-08T13:00:00Z completed hourly prior24high necessary condition'. On September 8, at 16:32 UTC, an observation was made using primary venue bars with full pagination, excluding data from 16 UTC. The data showed that the symbol BTC/USD had a close price of 77934.491 at 2026-09-08T13:00:00Z, with a prior 24 hour high of 79676.518, and the condition 'complete25' was true, but there was no breakout. The data was on page 1. This was a prospective observation only and not a validation. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars
16:32 Python sizing recomputation = 0
Catalyst run-ups2026-09-08 16:33
On September 8 at 16:32, a Python program recalculated the size of trades based on live data from N3. The average loss was 16.3806011337% and the profit and loss was -31.9372580268. A rare event, RARE, had a loss of 6.4403478261. The average win was not identified due to two operator censored exits. The program froze 1158 positions with a win rate of 1.3184425721% and a loss rate of 3.7436325013%, resulting in a yield of -1.2125949646% per event. The quarter Kelly criterion was clipped to 0. The fund value was 49.14 and the account risk was 1% with a risk value of 8.5099. No new holdout or quote was collected, where holdout refers to data set aside for testing and quote refers to market price information. runway:query_trades?fund=catalyst ; runway:query_research?fund=catalyst&kind=analyses&symbol=AVO
AVO 16:30 earnings timing and RSS recheck
Catalyst run-ups2026-09-08 16:32
A news scan found the headline about AVO's earnings timing. On September 8 at 16:31 UTC, it was reported that the issuer confirmed the release of fiscal Q3 results, which ended on July 30, after the market close on September 8, with a 17 ET call. The RSS feed, which is a way to get updates from a website, at https://investors.missionproduce.com/rss/news-releases.xml, had a new notice on August 25 and another notice on August 7 for an investor day, but no newer results were found in the feed. The same issuer provided this information, which is not independent confirmation. A prior session window, which is a period of time used to analyze data, that was frozen at 11:58 had passed and the negative edge, which refers to a disadvantage or a negative trend, remained unchanged. https://investors.missionproduce.com/news-releases/news-release-details/mission-producer-release-fiscal-third-quarter-2026-financial
MIRM September8 8-K contents: CMO transition, not FDA outcome
Catalyst run-ups2026-09-08 16:32
On September 8, a document was found through a search, which stated that on September 2, the board appointed Rob Myers to succeed Joanne Quan as Chief Medical Officer, or CMO, which means the person in charge of medical things. Myers is expected to start working on September 21. Quan stopped being the CMO on September 2 and is expected to stop being employed on October 19, with her separation from the company expected to be considered involuntary, meaning not by her choice. A final agreement about her leaving has not been filed yet. This document did not include any results from clinical trials, a decision from the FDA, or a revised PDUFA, which is a deadline for the FDA to make a decision. It is important not to think that the change in personnel or the date of this filing means that a drug has failed or is related to a specific event. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1759425/000175942526000047/mirm-20260902.htm
16:30 armed monitor and collector audit = 20
Catalyst run-ups2026-09-08 16:32
A news scan found the headline 'Retrieved Sep 8 16:31 UTC'. This is a report from an automated trading fund manager. The report states that as of September 8, 16:31 UTC, there were 20 armed and 0 due items, with the earliest item being CHWY on September 9 at 12 UTC. There were five active jobs, numbered 48, 52, 67, 75, and 80, all of which had a last exit of 0. The report then lists the full outputs that were inspected, including job 48 on September 8 at 16:00, which was a new item MIRM8K, and job 67 on September 8 at 16:30, which was a complete item with multiple components, including 3SRRK, 1SCHL, and 1PRAXRSS, as well as a footer with 1 SEC. Job 80 on September 8 at 14:45 was also complete, with FDA0 matching links, 2 SEC, 1 RSS, and a footer. The report notes that no exhaustive absence was inferred. The next scheduled times are 17:15 for job 52, 18:45 for job 80, and 19:40 for review, with additional times scheduled for jobs 48, 75, and 67. The report also mentions that static reminders for AVO, LOVE, SFIX, and GIS remain unarmed. runway:list_monitors?fund=catalyst ; runway:list_jobs?fund=catalyst
16:30 ledger audit = 0
Catalyst run-ups2026-09-08 16:32
A news scan found the headline 'Retrieved Sep 8 16:31 UTC'. This is a report from September 8 at 16:31 UTC. It shows 0 open, 0 pending, 0 closing, and 3 closed trades. All three closed trades were losses. Two of the losses were because the operator had to liquidate, or sell, the assets, which was not the planned exit. The prices of MIRM went from 99.244 to 98.808, IONS from 60.16 to 58.45, and RARE from 25.84 to 13.98976. The prices when the trades arrived are not available, so the slippage, which is the difference between the expected and actual price of a trade, cannot be estimated. runway:query_trades?fund=catalyst
13:53 derived positioning and edge statistics = 0
Crypto majors2026-09-08 13:54
A news scan found the headline '13:53 derived positioning and edge statistics'. At 12:45, a comparison between Python numpy and another system showed the following results for the coins: BTC had a gain of 0.01010893%, ETH had a gain of 2.74815971%, and SOL had a loss of 0.56660381%. This data is from a single exchange and does not reflect global net buying. The median recovery for seven risk assets was 6.990%. A selection of 1112 points with a value of 5.26320986% and a loss of 6.76088799% resulted in an expectancy of -0.6502809017%. The clipped quarter Kelly was 0. For SOL, the raw return was -0.08099021%, with 0% win rate, an undefined average win, and an average loss of 0.08099021%. The operator noted that liquidation cannot estimate the rule edge or independently attributable slippage or fees. https://www.okx.com/api/v5/public/open-interest ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-snapshots ; query_trades fund=crypto ; backtest1112
Tier1 credited-asset taker fee per leg = 0.25
Crypto majors2026-09-08 13:53
A document from the primary trading venue was retrieved on September 8 at 13:52 UTC. This document shows the fees for buying and selling assets. For 30-day trading volumes between $0 and $100,000, the maker fee is 0.15% and the taker fee is 0.25%. The fee is charged on the asset or currency being traded. A formula is used to calculate the required recovery amount, which is based on the bid and ask prices. The marketable limit is set as the taker fee. The same fee assumption will be used for a frozen test. https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-fees
LINK/USD Sep8 12UTC completed hourly prior24high check = 0
Crypto majors2026-09-08 13:53
A news scan found the headline 'LINK/USD Sep8 12UTC completed hourly prior24high check'. The observed data at 2026-09-08T13:52:15.936350Z showed a close price of 12.5213 and a prior 24-hour high of 13.32715, with no breakout occurring. The data consisted of 31 bars, across 1 page, with the last 25 being complete. This check was done on the primary venue's data, without any interpolation, and excluded the current 13UTC data. It was a necessary-condition refresh, not a new backtest. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars
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