02UTC three-day block risk and cross-major dependence
Crypto majors2026-09-09 02:14
A news scan found the following data: this is a risk report for a three-day block, considering dependence between major cryptocurrencies. The report is based on 60 daily log returns, divided into 58 unique blocks, with 10,000 paths. Correlation, which measures how much two things move together, between Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana is as follows: Bitcoin and Ethereum have a correlation of 0.8793342280482204, Bitcoin and Solana have a correlation of 0.8246320849602077, and Ethereum and Solana have a correlation of 0.8173067669782347. Annual volatility, which is a measure of how much prices swing, is 38.92478318307734 percent for Bitcoin, 57.043932123260056 percent for Ethereum, and 51.92452657334513 percent for Solana. The results show the mean percentage return, which is the average return, and the probability of loss, which is the chance of losing money. For Bitcoin, the mean percentage return is 0.7237917394098516 percent, the probability of loss is 0.4984, the fifth percentile return, which is the return that is worse than 95 percent of the time, is -3.369728248285564 percent, and the 95th percentile loss at capital, which is the loss that is worse than 5 percent of the time, is 7.16901260502133 percent. For Ethereum, the mean percentage return is 1.3612083718810861 percent, the probability of loss is 0.4694, the fifth percentile return is -3.900189981371327 percent, and the 95th percentile loss at capital is 8.297556680617964 percent. For Solana, the mean percentage return is 1.28556368670356 percent, the probability of loss is 0.4779, the fifth percentile return is -5.8539242301266725 percent, and the 95th percentile loss at capital is 12.454077451488743 percent. The seed for this simulation is Seed2026090902, and it is based on 10,000 draws from 58 overlapping joint three-day blocks of 60 daily log returns, with a terminal fee adjustment of 0.9975 squared, and no stops, slippage, or 15-minute fills. The Monte Carlo draws, which are a type of simulation, are not independent evidence. The exact fifth percentile returns are -3.2142148 percent for Bitcoin, -3.6686732 percent for Ethereum, and -5.1035890 percent for Solana, and the exact loss probabilities are 0.5 for Bitcoin, 0.465517 for Ethereum, and 0.482759 for Solana.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars
A news scan found the headline about ROIV. On September 8, at 6:00 ET, the issuer released its first report. The report discussed a clinical trial, which is a research study, that was randomized, double-blind, and placebo-controlled, meaning some patients received the actual treatment and others received a fake treatment, and neither the patients nor the researchers knew who was getting what. The trial included 135 patients at 87 sites in 20 countries. By week 16, the results showed a 56.3% improvement in pulmonary vascular resistance, which is a measure of the blood flow to the lungs, with a p-value of less than 0.0001, which is a statistical measure that indicates the results are likely not due to chance, and this was the primary goal of the study. The trial also showed a 35.2-meter improvement in the 6-minute walk distance, which is a test of how far a patient can walk in 6 minutes, with a p-value of 0.027, which was a secondary goal of the study. By week 24, the improvement in the 6-minute walk distance was 52.7 meters, which was not a planned goal of the study but was still notable, with a p-value of less than 0.0001. The trial also found that 12.1% of patients in the treatment group had a cough, compared to 18.2% of patients in the placebo group. The trial is now moving on to phase 3, which is the final stage of testing before a treatment can be approved, and is aiming to enroll 375 patients. The success of the trial does not guarantee that the treatment will be approved, and the probability of the stock going up is not certain. This information was observed on September 9, and the original sponsor of the trial is interested in the results. However, the claims of the trial being the best ever are not based on an independent comparison with other trials.
https://investor.roivant.com/news-releases/news-release-details/roivant-announces-positive-results-phocus-study-mosliciguat
HSBA.L QTR9090200 HSBC H1 quality and capital = 14.1
Quant replication2026-09-09 02:14
The first half of the year, which ended on June 30, 2026, showed the following results for HSBC: the reported profit before tax was 19.5 billion USD, which is a 23% increase. If we exclude notable items, the profit before tax was 20.4 billion USD and the revenue was 38.2 billion USD, with 6% growth in both areas when currency exchange rates are kept constant. The fees from wealth management were 5.5 billion USD, compared to 4.6 billion USD previously, and the net interest income from banking was 22.9 billion USD. The CET1 ratio, which is a measure of a bank's capital strength, was 14.1%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points, but still within the target range of 14 to 14.5%. The return on tangible equity, or RoTE, was 18.2% as reported and 19.1% when adjusted. The company plans to buy back up to 1 billion USD in shares and forecasts a net interest income of at least 46 billion USD for 2026. These results were observed on September 9, with the issuer presenting the primary results but also providing an adjusted presentation for those interested.
https://www.hsbc.com/investors/results-and-announcements/all-reporting/interim-results-2026-quick-read
005930.KS QTR9090200 Samsung issuer quarter and concentration = 89.5
Quant replication2026-09-09 02:14
A news scan found the headline about Samsung's quarterly results. On July 30, the issuer reported its second quarter, which ended on June 30, with revenue of 171.5 trillion Korean won and an operating profit of 89.5 trillion Korean won. The Display Solution, or DS, segment had revenue of 127.5 trillion Korean won and a profit of 89.2 trillion Korean won. The MX and Networks segment had revenue of 33.2 trillion Korean won and an operating loss of 0.7 trillion Korean won. The company saw strong demand and pricing for memory servers, which is a type of computer hardware, but faced cost pressure for consumer components. The issuer expects an undersupply in the second half of the year. This information was observed on September 9 and is based on the issuer's closest available accounts, which have not been independently verified, meaning they have not been checked by an outside party, and are based on bookings, which are orders received from customers.
https://news.samsung.com/global/samsung-electronics-announces-second-quarter-2026-results
A freeze note, numbered 1292, explains the columns in a cost matrix for XRP/USD trading. The columns include the window size, the speed of the moving average, the slippage, the return percentage, the maximum drawdown percentage, the number of closed trades, the win percentage, the average win percentage, the average loss percentage, the expectancy percentage, the raw quarter Kelly criterion, the number of open trades, missing values, and invalid held gap and zero volume trades. The fees are 25 basis points for each leg of the trade, and the slippage is 30 or 60 basis points. The strategy starts with no position and enters a long position when the fast simple moving average is greater than the 100-period simple moving average, and exits when the inverse condition is met. The data is from the development period of 2025 and the holdout diagnostic period from January 1, 2026, to September 8, 2026. The results are as follows: development with 10 and 20 as parameters, with return percentages and other metrics calculated. The results are presented in a table with the following rows: development with parameters 10 and 0.003, development with parameters 10 and 0.006, development with parameters 20 and 0.003, and development with parameters 20 and 0.006, with their respective metrics, including return percentages of -42.132686, -61.978801, -49.97186, and -65.513159, and win percentages of 21.428571, 18.571429, 24.193548, and 22.580645.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars
A freeze note, number 1292, has columns for a window, fast and slow moving averages, slip, return percentage, drawdown percentage, closed trades, win percentage, average win, average loss, expectancy percentage, a raw quarter Kelly measure, open trades, missing trades, and held gap invalid trades, with zero volume trades. There are fees of 25 basis points for each trade leg and a slip of 30 or 60 basis points. The strategy starts flat and goes long when the fast simple moving average is greater than the 100-day simple moving average, and exits when the inverse condition is met. The data is from 2025 development and 2026 January 1 to September 8, which is a reused holdout diagnostic period. The data includes the following rows: development with 10 and 20 periods, different return and drawdown percentages, and other metrics. The specific data points are: development with 10 periods, 0.003, 2.507187, 46.591486, 4, 50, 13.774939, 10.344856, 1.715041, 0.031126, 0, 0, false, 0, and development with 10 periods, 0.006, 0.076251, 46.910984, 4, 50, 13.092823, 10.882684, 1.10507, 0.021101, 0, 0, false, 0, and development with 20 periods, 0.003, 35.301748, 34.780223, 3, 66.666667, 19.85633, 5.663191, 11.349823, 0.142899, 0, 0, false, 0, and development with 20 periods, 0.006, 32.888055, 34.780223, 3, 66.666667, 19.137834, 6.229025, 10.682215, 0.139543, 0, 0, false, 0.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars
A freeze note, number 1292, has been made. The columns in the data represent various metrics, including window, fast, slip, return percentage, drawdown percentage, closed trades, win percentage, average win percentage, average loss percentage, expectancy percentage, raw quarter Kelly, open trades, missing trades, held gap invalid, and zero volume. There are fees of 25 basis points for each leg of a trade and a slip of 30 to 60 basis points. The strategy starts flat and goes long when the fast simple moving average is greater than the 100-period simple moving average, and exits when the inverse condition is met. The data was developed in 2025 and reused for diagnostic holdout from January 1, 2026, to September 8, 2026. The data points are as follows: development period with 10 and 20 as parameters, return percentages ranging from -75.080154 to -81.672221, and other metrics such as win percentages and average losses. The specific data points are: development with 10, 0.003, -75.080154, 78.514154, 83, 19.277108, 10.058408, 4.12729, -1.392697, 0, 0, 5, false, 5005; development with 10, 0.006, -84.855248, 86.515204, 83, 16.86747, 10.800356, 4.578021, -1.984078, 0, 0, 5, false, 5005; development with 20, 0.003, -73.252906, 78.028564, 63, 23.809524, 10.691399, 5.526964, -1.665449, 0, 0, 5, false, 5005; development with 20, 0.006, -81.672221, 84.671165, 63, 22.222222, 10.750934, 5.971235, -2.255198, 0, 0, 5, false, 5005.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars