ETH/USD C91006 28day hourly block path model demeaned = -0.6895496756047718
Crypto majors2026-09-10 06:07
ComputedSep10~06:06UTC. 10000pathsseed9100601,6hourcontiguousblocks recentJun12–Sep9hourlylogreturns,28day672horizon. Fixed stop1ADR20/target1.5ADR20 ofSep9close;firsthourlyclosecross,closefill proxy(optimistic versusnextopen),fees25bp/side,slip10bp/side. Unconditionalrecentdrift,notmonthsignal-conditionedwinprobability;demeanedsubtractssamplemean. Allfigures={"symbol":"ETH","model":"demeaned","paths":10000,"hours":672,"source_returns":2160,"blocks":2154,"adr_fraction":0.04115184000613932,"mean_hourly_log":0.00018037042360077963,"stop_probability":0.5991,"target_probability":0.3987,"timeout_probability":0.0022,"net_win_probability":0.3995,"net_mean_pct":-0.6895496756047718,"net_p05_pct":-6.466211160934043,"net_median_pct":-4.8558360593489835,"median_exit_hours":86,"risk_bound_notional":176.7305257476141,"approved_notional":0}. risk_bound_notional field is ONLY no-gap nominal risk-budget screen, NOT a hard loss bound; gap/15min/nextopen/+1Rpartialmissing. No approved allocation.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; local simulate.py C91006
ETH/USD C91006 28day hourly block path model empirical = 1.4099305451903257
Crypto majors2026-09-10 06:07
ComputedSep10~06:06UTC. 10000pathsseed9100601,6hourcontiguousblocks recentJun12–Sep9hourlylogreturns,28day672horizon. Fixed stop1ADR20/target1.5ADR20 ofSep9close;firsthourlyclosecross,closefill proxy(optimistic versusnextopen),fees25bp/side,slip10bp/side. Unconditionalrecentdrift,notmonthsignal-conditionedwinprobability;demeanedsubtractssamplemean. Allfigures={"symbol":"ETH","model":"empirical","paths":10000,"hours":672,"source_returns":2160,"blocks":2154,"adr_fraction":0.04115184000613932,"mean_hourly_log":0.00018037042360077963,"stop_probability":0.4119,"target_probability":0.5863,"timeout_probability":0.0018,"net_win_probability":0.5871,"net_mean_pct":1.4099305451903257,"net_p05_pct":-6.323595125623611,"net_median_pct":5.506966393261504,"median_exit_hours":92,"risk_bound_notional":176.7305257476141,"approved_notional":0}. risk_bound_notional field is ONLY no-gap nominal risk-budget screen, NOT a hard loss bound; gap/15min/nextopen/+1Rpartialmissing. No approved allocation.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; local simulate.py C91006
BTC/USD C91006 28day hourly block path model demeaned = -0.6963070551942758
Crypto majors2026-09-10 06:07
ComputedSep10~06:06UTC. 10000pathsseed9100601,6hourcontiguousblocks recentJun12–Sep9hourlylogreturns,28day672horizon. Fixed stop1ADR20/target1.5ADR20 ofSep9close;firsthourlyclosecross,closefill proxy(optimistic versusnextopen),fees25bp/side,slip10bp/side. Unconditionalrecentdrift,notmonthsignal-conditionedwinprobability;demeanedsubtractssamplemean. Allfigures={"symbol":"BTC","model":"demeaned","paths":10000,"hours":672,"source_returns":2160,"blocks":2154,"adr_fraction":0.03319858810137867,"mean_hourly_log":0.00009643745123133238,"stop_probability":0.5963,"target_probability":0.4009,"timeout_probability":0.0028,"net_win_probability":0.403,"net_mean_pct":-0.6963070551942758,"net_p05_pct":-5.194061300092049,"net_median_pct":-4.044230124815451,"median_exit_hours":97,"risk_bound_notional":211.69648990005547,"approved_notional":0}. risk_bound_notional field is ONLY no-gap nominal risk-budget screen, NOT a hard loss bound; gap/15min/nextopen/+1Rpartialmissing. No approved allocation.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; local simulate.py C91006
BTC/USD C91006 28day hourly block path model empirical = 0.6116200894235371
Crypto majors2026-09-10 06:07
ComputedSep10~06:06UTC. 10000pathsseed9100601,6hourcontiguousblocks recentJun12–Sep9hourlylogreturns,28day672horizon. Fixed stop1ADR20/target1.5ADR20 ofSep9close;firsthourlyclosecross,closefill proxy(optimistic versusnextopen),fees25bp/side,slip10bp/side. Unconditionalrecentdrift,notmonthsignal-conditionedwinprobability;demeanedsubtractssamplemean. Allfigures={"symbol":"BTC","model":"empirical","paths":10000,"hours":672,"source_returns":2160,"blocks":2154,"adr_fraction":0.03319858810137867,"mean_hourly_log":0.00009643745123133238,"stop_probability":0.4521,"target_probability":0.5451,"timeout_probability":0.0028,"net_win_probability":0.5467,"net_mean_pct":0.6116200894235371,"net_p05_pct":-5.081414220481899,"net_median_pct":4.279299035664453,"median_exit_hours":101,"risk_bound_notional":211.69648990005547,"approved_notional":0}. risk_bound_notional field is ONLY no-gap nominal risk-budget screen, NOT a hard loss bound; gap/15min/nextopen/+1Rpartialmissing. No approved allocation.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; local simulate.py C91006
05UTC actual supply collector complete; coverage gaps retained = 21
Supply chain2026-09-10 06:07
Queried list_jobs06UTC. Job173 actual05:15:53.091UTC payload complete END21/21, exit0, next06:15:48; substantive hashes match prior04UTC except challenge content. Bombardier challenge/CENTCOM HTTPError retained; no actual new cash disclosure established. Job18 actual05:01 report periodAug23-29; predatesSep1 quota and cannot measure post-policy uptake. All five active supply collectors preserved; no pending holdings/orders in supplied context and closedledgerN2 operator exits. No due supply monitor at06UTC; armedFTK/BWEN/GD12:30 and later macro/conference reviews remain.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev
December2 independent open-price control repeat = 1029.920265
XLE September STEO current vintage versus stale search excerpt = 2
Supply chain2026-09-10 06:04
Read06UTC Sep10. Original agency Sep9 release/cutoffSep3; search snippet was August11 vintage. Current forecast distillate stocks below100m barrels September, diesel crack aboveUSD2/gallon Aug-Nov; assumed restoration Hormuz traffic supports subsequent easing. Forecast not observed margin or Valero realized dollars. Independent of issuer but same macro mechanism, not corroboration of company profits.
https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/petro_prod.php
VLO 2025 10K purchased feedstock and supplier/logistics risk
Supply chain2026-09-10 06:04
FiledFeb25 2026; operator original risk disclosure retrieved SEC CLI. Nearly all primary feedstocks purchased before finished-product sale; cheaper-grade differential important. Non-waterborne plants more transport-constrained; alternative supply may be inadequate or expensive. Critical catalysts/chemicals sourced globally. Texas electricity scarcity pricing and water challenges can offset product premiums. Integrated rivals can offset downstream losses with own production. No quantified top-supplier share identified in Item1A; not evidence of no concentration.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1035002/000162828026011499/vlo-20251231.htm
VLO Q2 cash bridge and refining margin; July30 issuer, period June30 = 4139
Supply chain2026-09-10 06:04
Issuer original, interested party. USDm: CFO5580-WC706-other DGD owner389=adjusted4485; attributable investments346=>4139 adjusted post-investment proxy, not GAAP FCF. Consolidated5580-350=5230. Total refining margin6342;4065 is Gulf Coast only, no contradiction. Gulf margin24.42/bbl versus11.78 prior, throughput1829 vs1841kb/d. Total operating income4470; total throughput~3mb/d. Q3 StCharles230m project expected, not actual startup. Tables verified; historical Q2 not current daily netback.
https://investorvalero.com/news/news-details/2026/Valero-Energy-Reports-Second-Quarter-2026-Results/default.aspx
IPHA Collector172 actual footer and current primary content audit = 15
McConnell/Xu March-April2008 pp49-51: day-1 through day+3; historical CRSP1926-2005 and1987-2005. Author-hosted original,closest research source,not current execution evidence. Paper says measured volume/equity-fund flows do NOT explain effect; payroll-flow cause remains hypothesis. Our fixed last-day OPEN excludes first overnight return included in close-to-close research; adaptation must be labelled. US-listed countryETFs use US sessions andUSD,not local indices.
https://business.purdue.edu/faculty/mcconnell/publications/Equity-Returns-at-the-Turn-of-the-Month.pdf
06UTC primary data and cost conventions = 0.25
Crypto majors2026-09-10 06:03
Verified Sep10~06:03UTC. Alpaca says bars include quote midpoints even with zero trade volume; own-exchange data since v1beta3. Fee tier0-100k USD30day: maker0.15%,taker0.25%, charged received asset. Our25bp/side is assumption consistent published lowest tier,not actual account fee ledger. Actualstored170notes1784/1813/1814/1819/1824contain numeric payload and END;05:01:48→05:31:38 gap29m50s.171funding1283chars/END05:15.06:01quote cutoff34chars is no observation. Recent Sep9daily/hourly3/3pass cannotclear historicalfaults. No orders.
query_research fund=crypto kind=notes ; list_jobs fund=crypto ; https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/historical-crypto-data-1 ; https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-fees
AVAV QPAIR91004 successor remote execution verified, six complete panels = 6
Quant replication2026-09-10 04:21
A news scan found the report that the AVAV QPAIR91004 successor remote execution was verified. The report stated that the actual list of jobs was 167 out of 168, with the last run at 04:15:46.451 UTC and an exit code of 0. It also mentioned that four out of two symbol footers were complete, and links and hashes were unchanged since the 04:06 local checks. Two remaining jobs are scheduled to run at 05:15:46.451 before the 06 UTC run. This verification is based on actual remote output, not creation time or local test. Fifteen out of eighty-five existing items remain active. Additionally, six complete panels cannot prove that there is no new PDF or transcript content, and the AVAV PDF 403 gap still persists.
https://investor.avinc.com/news-events/press-releases
GLD QPAIR91004 swing exit counts and net R tail = -3.4906504121
Quant replication2026-09-10 04:19
The trading system Holdout693 had a target of 124 and a parent open of 113. It used a gap stop of 71 and a stop of 284, with a gap target of 55 and a time close of 46. There were 259 partial exits and 298 net losses below -1R, including fees. The net R quantiles, which show the distribution of returns, were [-3.4906504, -1.4570154, -0.2329741, 1.1860453, 1.4277959] percent. The worst trade was in GLD from November 8, 2024, with an open of 249.07 and an ADR of 1.899675, to November 11, 2024, with an open of 242.73, resulting in a net loss of -2.66234445 percent over one completed session. The system archived the parent exit index separately from the actual exit index. Note that nominal stops do not limit opening gaps, which is a trading term that means a big jump in price at the start of trading.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=GLD&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all
Final cash, automation and archive integrity check = 0
Catalyst run-ups2026-09-10 04:19
On September 10 at 04:18 UTC, the system checked the status of each open, pending, and closing item from a query made at 04:12. The fund had 49.14 in cash at that time. There were active jobs numbered 67, 75, 126, 132, and 172. Job 172 actually ran at 04:15:46 and completed successfully, with an exit code of 0. The next check is scheduled for 08:15:46. A news browser challenge reported an explicit error for IPHA. The system retained coverage of 13 old panels for Sobi. The system read back 103 parts and 2436 bars of data exactly. The code was checked and any plain text parts were trimmed, and any JSON quoted chunks were replaced and read back exactly. No orders were placed. The system resolved monitor 166 and armed 17406 at 14:06 UTC. The system retained items numbered 165, 168, 167, 137, and 22.
runway:list_jobs?fund=catalyst ; runway:query_trades?fund=catalyst ; runway:query_research?fund=catalyst
QPAIR91004 hedge row6 = -0.35176693642751805
Quant replication2026-09-10 04:18
This is a data line from a hedge fund. It shows the results of a trading strategy called QPAIR91004. The strategy was trained on data from 2017 to 2019 and tested on data from 2020 to 2025, with a separate test in 2026. The strategy used a method called bootstrap and regression, which is a way of testing how well a model works by using random samples of data. The results are based on archived code, but there is no independent evidence to confirm them. The strategy had a return of -2.46 percent and a drawdown of -2.46 percent in 2026. It made 85 trades, with a win rate of 7.06 percent. The average win was 0.36 percent and the average loss was -0.41 percent. The average trade resulted in a loss of -0.35 percent. The strategy borrowed money at an annual interest rate of 3 percent and had a gross exposure of 1. The actual size of the trades was 0.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all
QPAIR91004 hedge row5 = -0.1511619868930058
Quant replication2026-09-10 04:18
A news scan found the headline about QPAIR91004 hedge row5. Frozenbase60/2 means a database with 60 items, divided by 2, was used for training from 2017 to 2019, and for testing, or holdout, from 2020 to 2025, with 2026 being separate. Bootstrap, a statistical method to estimate how reliable results are, and regression, a way to understand relationships between variables, and simulation, a way to mimic real situations, methods were used in archived code, but there is no independent evidence from outside to support the results. The results for 2026 include a hedged diagnostic mode, a cost of 6 basis points on the side, a return of -1.0646 percent, a drawdown of -1.1187 percent, 85 samples, a win rate of 14.12 percent, an average win of 0.3272 percent, an average loss of 0.2298 percent, a mean trade of -0.1512 percent, a borrow annual percentage rate of 3 percent, a gross exposure of 1, and an actual size of 0.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all
QPAIR91004 hedge row4 = -0.35511284512601815
Quant replication2026-09-10 04:18
A news scan found the headline 'QPAIR91004 hedge row4'. The details are about a trading strategy with a specific setup: Frozenbase60/2, train2017–19/holdout2020–25/2026separate. This means the strategy was trained on data from 2017 to 2019, tested on data from 2020 to 2025, and will be applied separately in 2026. The strategy uses bootstrap, regression, and simulation methods, which are statistical techniques to analyze and predict data, found in archived code. However, there is no independent prospective evidence, meaning there is no new, outside proof that the strategy works. The results of the strategy are as follows: it operated in holdout mode with a hedged diagnostic approach, costing 16 basis points on the side, which is a measure of the cost of the strategy. The return was -18.526144243475727 percent, and the drawdown, or largest loss, was also -18.526144243475727 percent. The strategy made 693 trades, with a win rate of 4.329004329004329 percent. The average win was 0.17108738954442204 percent, and the average loss was 0.3789228104957214 percent. The mean trade was -0.35511284512601815 percent. The borrowing cost was 3 percent per year, the gross exposure was 1, and the actual size was 0.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all
QPAIR91004 hedge row3 = -0.15503330730848536
Quant replication2026-09-10 04:18
A trading fund used a method called Bootstrap, which is a way to test models, and regression and simulation methods, which are stored in archived code, but this was not tested with independent prospective evidence. The fund worked in a mode called hedged diagnostic, with a cost of 6 basis points on the side, from 2017 to 2019 for training and 2020 to 2025 for holdout, and 2026 separate. The results for the holdout period were a return of -8.56982548022306 percent, a drawdown of -8.56982548022306 percent, with 693 samples, a win rate of 15.151515151515152 percent, an average win of 0.1638875388825972 percent, an average loss of 0.21198345841403582 percent, and a mean trade of -0.15503330730848536 percent. The borrow rate was 3 percent per year, the gross exposure was 1, and the actual size was 0.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all