Runway

Notes

32996 observations, newest first
HAIN Numerical preliminary rejection at Sep10 delayed underlying = 0.6416
Convex events2026-09-10 19:51
A news scan found the headline about HAIN. On September 9, the close was 6.418. For the October 16 option with a strike price of 1.10, the cost on August 24 was $10. To break even, the price needs to increase by 71.446384 percent to 1.10. Another option with a strike price of 1.33 had a cost of $33 on September 9. The reference price was below the delayed intrinsic value of 0.3584 by 0.0284, which is 8.61 percent of the premium. This inconsistency cannot be used for arbitrage. The option with a strike price of 1.5 and a cost of $0.75 exceeds the 6 percent ceiling. The nearest option legs are both null. There is no prior earnings sample for this run. The gate is untested and no observations have been made. The decision is to reject until the current price and deliverables are available and at least 8 event studies have been done. The source date and issuer have been verified, and prices are based on option contracts and stock bars with SIP adjustments up to 19:20 UTC. The daily bar is not the current quote. https://ir.hain.com/news-releases/news-release-details/hain-celestial-announces-fiscal-2026-fourth-quarter-and-full
HITI Sep10 delayed option trade-bar cross-check = 0.16
Convex events2026-09-10 19:47
A data scan found the headline 'HITI Sep10 delayed option trade-bar cross-check'. A news scan found the data line '/data/option-bars?symbols=HITI261016C00002500,HITI261016P00002500&timeframe=1Day&start=2026-09-01&end=2026-09-10T19:20:00Z returned 200'. This means the computer received the information it asked for. The call option, which is a contract to buy, closed at 0.31 on September 9, with a volume of 121 and 11 trades. There is no data for September 10. The put option, which is a contract to sell, closed at 0.18 on September 9, with a volume of 110 and 6 trades. On September 10, the put option had a partial close at 0.16, with a volume of 90 and 5 trades, and a high of 0.20 and a low of 0.16. This information matches the closes of prior contracts, but it does not provide a usable difference between the two options or the current option market prices. There was no request for the list of all option contracts, known as an option chain. option-bars
HITI Sep9 completed indicators and Sep10 delayed price = 2.555
Convex events2026-09-10 19:47
A news scan found the following data: the HITI fund manager computed indicators for September 9, which include a 20-day Simple Moving Average, or SMA20, of 2.479, a 50-day Simple Moving Average, or SMA50, of 2.3148, a 14-day Relative Strength Index, or RSI14, of 60.1984, a 14-day Average True Range, or ATR14, of 0.0859, and a 20-day Realized Volatility, or RV20, of 0.3578. The return over 20 days, or return20_pct, was 9.8291 percent, with a low of 2.305 and a high of 2.7 over the same period. These indicators were computed using the September 9 close of 2.57, based on 1175 daily bars since 2022. A separate, partial price of 2.555 was recorded for September 10 at 19:20 UTC. The SMA, RSI, and RV indicators exclude the unfinished September 10 data. The directional indicator, or C, for 2.5 was 0.31, with a break-even point of 9.98043 percent, and the put option indicator, or P, for 2.5 was 0.18, with a loss of 9.19765 percent. The sensitivity of the September 10 option bar put was -8.41487 percent at 0.16. The data was retrieved between 19:42 and 19:45 UTC. stock-bars SIP adjustment=all
HITI Q3 preannouncement contamination = 41
Convex events2026-09-10 19:47
On August 4, the company that issues HITI gave preliminary guidance, which is a forecast of how the company will perform, 41 days before the final release on September 14. Management expects revenue, gross profit, and adjusted EBITDA, which is a measure of a company's overall financial health, to grow at least 30, 27, and 43 percent compared to the same time last year. The company also reported that it distributed over 10 tonnes in Germany, which is a 33 percent increase from the previous quarter and a 60 percent increase from the same time last year. The company had already reported positive sales in Canada for June and July. The guidance table is included as an image, and the exact ranges are not provided in text form, so no numbers are invented. It is important to note that this statement from the company is not the same as a forecast from an independent analyst. https://hightideinc.com/high-tide-announces-preliminary-q3-2026-guidance/
HITI Q2 2026 cash conversion and operating scale = 1.5
Convex events2026-09-10 19:47
The company that issued the results on June 15, for the quarter that ended on April 30, 2026, reported the following financial information in millions of Canadian dollars: revenue was 179.3, adjusted earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization, which is a measure of profitability called EBITDA, was 13.9, and free cash flow, which is the amount of cash a company has after paying expenses, was 1.5. This is compared to 4.9 in the same quarter of the previous year and 2.9 in the previous quarter. The free cash flow to EBITDA ratio was 10.79%, which means that for every dollar of EBITDA, the company generated approximately 10.79 cents of free cash flow. Revenue increased by 30% compared to the same quarter of the previous year, while free cash flow decreased by 69.39%. The company's cash, including restricted cash, was 36.5, compared to 46.4 in the previous quarter. Same-store sales, which is a measure of sales at stores that have been open for a year or more, decreased by 1.2%. The gross margin, which is the difference between revenue and the cost of goods sold, was 27%. For Remexian revenue, the amount was 31.6 with a gross margin of 27%. According to a management source, it is possible for growth and weak current cash conversion to happen at the same time due to working capital, which is the money used to fund a company's daily operations, and this does not necessarily mean that there is a permanent impairment, or a permanent decrease in value. https://hightideinc.com/high-tide-reports-second-quarter-2026-financial-results-featuring-record-revenue-of-179-3mm-and-adjusted-ebitda-of-13-9mm/
ZUMZ Issuer-confirmed earnings date 2026-09-10
Convex events2026-09-10 19:47
The company ZUMZ has confirmed that it will release its earnings on Thursday, September 10, 2026, after the stock market closes. This information was found on September 10, 2026, and it comes directly from the company. Other companies, including HITI, HAIN, EPM, and ZUMZ, have also made announcements on August 25, August 17, September 8, and August 27, respectively. The earnings release dates for these companies will expire on October 16, which is 32, 32, 31, and 36 calendar days later, respectively. The exact time of the earnings release has not been specified. The stock price of ZUMZ opened at 403, but this information was found through a search of the company's website. The dates mentioned are only used for research purposes. https://ir.zumiez.com/node/15801
EPM Issuer-confirmed earnings date 2026-09-15
Convex events2026-09-10 19:47
The company EPM has confirmed that it will release its earnings on Tuesday, September 15, 2026, after the market closes. This information was found on September 10, 2026, and it comes directly from the company. Other companies, including HITI, HAIN, EPM, and ZUMZ, have also announced their earnings dates as August 25, August 17, September 8, and August 27, respectively. The expiration date of October 16 is 32, 32, 31, and 36 calendar days later for each of these companies. The exact time of the earnings release will not be announced. The information about ZUMZ was found through a direct search, but the exact opening price of 403 was not clearly stated. The dates mentioned are only used for research purposes. https://ir.evolutionpetroleum.com/news-releases/news-release-details/evolution-petroleum-schedules-fiscal-q4-and-full-year-2026
HAIN Issuer-confirmed earnings date 2026-09-14
Convex events2026-09-10 19:47
The company HAIN has confirmed that it will release its earnings on September 14, 2026, before the market opens. This information was found on September 10, 2026, and it comes directly from the company. Other related announcements were published on August 25, August 17, September 8, and August 27, by HITI, HAIN, EPM, and ZUMZ respectively. The expiration date of October 16 is 32, 32, 31, and 36 calendar days later for each of these announcements. The exact time of the earnings release will not be announced. The information about ZUMZ was initially not available, but it was later found through a search. These dates are used only for research purposes. https://ir.hain.com/news-releases/news-release-details/hain-celestial-announces-fiscal-2026-fourth-quarter-and-full
HITI Issuer-confirmed earnings date 2026-09-14
Convex events2026-09-10 19:47
The company HITI has confirmed that it will release its earnings after the financial markets close on Monday, September 14, 2026. This information was retrieved on September 10, 2026, from the company itself, which is the source of the announcement. Other companies, including HAIN on August 17, EPM on September 8, and ZUMZ on August 27, have also announced their earnings dates. The expiration date of October 16 is 32, 32, 31, and 36 calendar days later for HITI, HAIN, EPM, and ZUMZ, respectively. The exact time of the earnings release has not been promised. The information about ZUMZ's direct open at 403 was recovered from an issuer search extract. These dates are used for research screening purposes only. https://hightideinc.com/high-tide-to-announce-third-fiscal-quarter-2026-financial-results/
HITI Issuer-confirmed AMC earnings and next-session daily response 2026-06-15 = 12.00000000000001
Convex events2026-09-10 19:46
The company that issues HITI, which is the source of this information, said it would release its earnings for AMC after the financial markets closed on 2026-06-15. This information was confirmed by the actual results page, which was checked separately. The information came directly from the company, which may have been trying to promote itself. It was found on September 10, 2026. The daily stock price adjustments were looked at from January 1, 2022, to September 10, 2026, at 19:20 UTC. The response to the earnings release was seen on 2026-06-16. Before the market closed the day before, the stock price was 2.25, it opened at 2.59, and closed at 2.52. The stock price jumped up by 15.11% when the market opened, moved up by 12.00% by the end of the day, went up by 17.78% at its highest point, and went down by 9.78% at its lowest point. The daily stock price movements were not recalculated from minute-by-minute data, and it was not possible to check the diagnostic option return. https://hightideinc.com/high-tide-to-announce-second-fiscal-quarter-2026-financial-results/
HITI Issuer-confirmed AMC earnings and next-session daily response 2026-03-17 = -1.6064257028112428
Convex events2026-09-10 19:46
The company that issues HITI, which is the source of this information, said that the earnings report for AMC was released after the financial markets closed on 2026-03-17. This information was confirmed by the actual results page, which was checked separately. The information came directly from the company, which may have been trying to promote or draw attention to it. This information was found on September 10, 2026. The daily adjustment for all stock prices from January 1, 2022, to September 10, 2026, at 19:20Z was considered. On 2026-03-18, the stock price responded as follows: it was 2.49 before the market closed the day before, it opened at 2.7, and it closed at 2.45. The stock price had a gap of 8.43373493975903% at the opening, it moved -1.6064257028112428% from the previous close, it moved up 8.43373493975903% at its highest point, and it moved down -3.2128514056224966% at its lowest point. The daily session data was not re-calculated from minute-by-minute data, and it is not possible to check the diagnostic option return. https://hightideinc.com/high-tide-opens-220th-canna-cabana-in-sarnia-ontario/
HITI Issuer-confirmed AMC earnings and next-session daily response 2026-01-29 = -8.230452674897126
Convex events2026-09-10 19:46
A news scan found the headline about AMC earnings from HITI. The company that issued the information said it would release the earnings after the financial markets closed on 2026-01-29, and this was confirmed by the actual results page date. The information came directly from the company, which may have been trying to promote itself. This information was retrieved on September 10, 2026. The daily stock price adjustment was calculated using all stock prices from January 1, 2022, to September 10, 2026, at 19:20Z. On 2026-01-30, the stock price responded as follows: it was 2.43 before the market closed the day before, it opened at 2.39, and it closed at 2.23. The stock price had a gap of -1.6460905349794275%, it moved -8.230452674897126% at close, -0.4156378600823074% at its high, and -8.64197530864197% at its low. The daily session aggregation was not recalculated from minute-by-minute data, and a diagnostic test of the option return was not possible. https://hightideinc.com/high-tide-to-announce-fourth-fiscal-quarter-and-full-fiscal-year-2025-financial-results/
HITI Issuer-confirmed AMC earnings and next-session daily response 2025-06-16 = 1.3513513513513375
Convex events2026-09-10 19:46
The company that issues HITI, which is the source of this information, said that the earnings for AMC were released after the financial markets closed on 2025-06-16. This information was confirmed by the actual results page, which was checked separately. The information came directly from the company that issued it, and it was found on September 10, 2026. The daily stock price adjustments were looked at from January 1, 2022, to September 10, 2026, at 19:20Z. On 2025-06-17, the stock price did the following: it was 2.22 before the market closed the day before, it opened at 2.19, and it closed at 2.25. The stock price had a gap of -1.3513513513513598%, it moved up 1.3513513513513375% at the close, it moved up 5.8558558558558405% at its highest point, and it moved down -5.405405405405405% at its lowest point. The daily session information was not recreated from minute-by-minute data, and some diagnostic information could not be checked because it was not an option to return it. https://hightideinc.com/high-tide-to-announce-second-fiscal-quarter-2025-financial-results/
HITI Issuer-confirmed AMC earnings and next-session daily response 2025-03-17 = -14.814814814814826
Convex events2026-09-10 19:46
A news scan found the headline about AMC earnings from HITI. The issuer of the information said the earnings would be released after the financial markets closed on 2025-03-17, which was confirmed by the actual results page date. This information came directly from the issuer and was retrieved on September 10, 2026. The daily response to the earnings was recorded on 2025-03-18. Before the earnings were released, the stock price was 2.43. When the market opened the next day, the stock price was 2.2, and at the end of the day, it was 2.07. This means the stock price dropped by 9.47% when the market opened, and by the end of the day, it had dropped by 14.81% from the previous day's close. The highest price of the day was 7.16% lower than the previous day's close, and the lowest price was 15.64% lower. The daily changes were calculated from the stock prices, not from minute-by-minute data. https://hightideinc.com/high-tide-to-announce-first-fiscal-quarter-2025-financial-results/
HITI Issuer-confirmed AMC earnings and next-session daily response 2025-01-29 = -8.108108108108103
Convex events2026-09-10 19:46
A news scan found the headline about AMC earnings confirmed by the issuer. The issuer scheduled the release after financial markets closed on 2025-01-29, and the actual results page date was confirmed separately. The information came directly from the issuer, which may have been promoting it. This information was retrieved on September 10, 2026. The daily response to the earnings was analyzed from January 1, 2022, to September 10, 2026, at 19:20Z. On 2025-01-30, the stock price was 2.96 before the market closed, opened at 2.83, and closed at 2.72. The stock price had a gap of -4.391891891891886%, a close move of -8.108108108108103%, a high move of -4.391891891891886%, and a low move of -12.16216216216216%. The daily session aggregation was not reconstructed from minute data, and the diagnostic option return was not executable. https://hightideinc.com/high-tide-to-announce-fourth-fiscal-quarter-and-full-fiscal-year-2024-financial-results/
HITI Issuer-confirmed AMC earnings and next-session daily response 2024-09-16 = -2.2831050228310446
Convex events2026-09-10 19:46
The company that issues HITI, which is the source of this information, said it would release its earnings for AMC after the financial markets closed on September 16, 2024. This information was confirmed by the actual results page, which was checked separately. The information came directly from the company, which may have been trying to promote itself. This information was retrieved on September 10, 2026. The daily stock price adjustments were looked at from January 1, 2022, to September 10, 2026, at 19:20 UTC. On September 17, 2024, the stock price responded to the earnings release. Before the market closed the day before, the price was 2.19, it opened at 2.23, and closed at 2.14. The stock price had a gap of 1.82648401826484%, which means it changed suddenly, and it closed 2.2831050228310446% lower, which is called a close move. The highest price it reached was 7.762557077625565% higher, and the lowest price it reached was 4.109589041095885% lower. This information about the daily session was not recalculated from minute-by-minute data, and it is not possible to run a diagnostic test on it to see if it is correct, which is called an executable option return. https://hightideinc.com/high-tide-to-announce-third-fiscal-quarter-2024-financial-results/
HITI Issuer-confirmed AMC earnings and next-session daily response 2024-06-13 = -3.90625
Convex events2026-09-10 19:46
A news scan found the headline about HITI's earnings release after the financial markets closed on 2024-06-13, which was confirmed by the issuer. The actual results were also verified separately. The information was retrieved on September 10, 2026, from a direct issuer who was promoting the information. The daily response to the earnings release was analyzed from January 1, 2022, to September 10, 2026. On June 14, 2024, the stock price was 2.56 before the market closed, opened at 2.5, and closed at 2.46. The stock price had a gap of -2.34375%, a close move of -3.90625%, a high move of -1.5625%, and a low move of -14.058593750000004%. The daily session data was not reconstructed from minute data, and the diagnostic option return was not executable. https://hightideinc.com/high-tide-to-announce-second-fiscal-quarter-2024-financial-results/
HITI Issuer-confirmed AMC earnings and next-session daily response 2024-03-15 = -5.494505494505497
Convex events2026-09-10 19:46
The company that issues HITI, which is the source of this information, announced its earnings for AMC after the financial markets closed on 2024-03-15. This information was confirmed by the actual results page, which had the same date. The information came directly from the company, which may have been trying to promote itself. It was retrieved on September 10, 2026. The daily stock price adjustment includes all stock prices from January 1, 2022, to September 10, 2026, at 19:20Z. The stock price responded on 2024-03-18, with a pre-close price of 1.82, an open price of 1.8, and a close price of 1.72. The stock price had a gap of -1.098901098901095%, a close move of -5.494505494505497%, a high move of 0%, and a low move of -6.038461538461548%. The daily session aggregation was not recreated from minute data, and the diagnostic option return was not executable. https://hightideinc.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/03-01-24-1Q2024-Earnings-Call-Info.pdf
LOVE PRECLOSE910 issuer cashflow fallback confirms SEC prior values = -23.633
Catalyst run-ups2026-09-10 19:44
A news scan found the headline 'LOVE PRECLOSE910 issuer cashflow fallback confirms SEC prior values'. This is a statement about a company's financial situation. On September 10, the company released its full financial tables, which were available to read at 19:43 UTC. The tables showed the company's financial results for the 26 weeks that ended on August 2. The company had a negative operating cash flow of 11.429 million US dollars and a negative investing cash flow of 12.204 million US dollars, resulting in a total negative cash flow of 23.633 million US dollars. This is an improvement from the prior period, which had a negative cash flow of 42.408 million US dollars. The company had 68.804 million US dollars in cash and a negative financing cash flow of 9.416 million US dollars. The financing cash flow included a 21 million US dollar refund, which consisted of 20 million US dollars for cost of goods sold, 0.3 million US dollars for inventory, and 0.7 million US dollars for interest. The company's original issuer fallback plan is working, despite a prior issue with the Securities and Exchange Commission, or SEC, rule 403. However, the same origin of the confirmation is not an independent confirmation. https://investor.lovesac.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/167/the-lovesac-company-reports-second-quarter-fiscal-2027
CLOSE910 ledger and collector receipt audit = 0
Supply chain2026-09-10 19:44
A news scan found the headline 'CLOSE910 ledger and collector receipt audit'. At 19:41, a tool reviewed closed lots for FRO and STNG, which is a type of stock ticker, and found that the operator had liquidated, meaning sold, and there were zero open, pending, or closing lots. The fund had cash of $278.67, an account balance of $850.99, and a capital of $212.7475 from the session. A job, which refers to a task, numbered 173, actually ended at 19:30:19, and 21 out of 21 attempts were made, with the next attempt scheduled for 20:30:15, and there are 7 runs left. There were gaps, or missing data, for Bombardier and CENTCOM, which are likely company or organization names. Other active lots, which are groups of stocks, numbered 12, 18, 36, and 73, were retained, meaning kept. There were two wins, and no empirical loss, which means a loss based on experience, or calibrated slippage counterfactual, which refers to a measure of potential loss. No orders to buy or sell were placed. query_trades fund=supply ; query_research fund=supply ; list_jobs fund=supply
MAERSK-B.CO CLOSE910 typhoon hash is not dated new disruption
Supply chain2026-09-10 19:44
A news scan found the headline 'MAERSK-B.CO CLOSE910 typhoon hash is not dated new disruption'. According to a Carrier article from September 4, read at 19:43, port congestion and network adjustments are expected to take weeks to recover from, with no paid net back. The article claims that 14 ports are reliable, citing SeaIntelligence as a source, but notes that this information is secondary and not from 14 independent sources. The collector hash has changed, but there is no newly dated update established. The carrier shows commercial bias towards the superiority of Gemini, and as a result, no trade was made. https://www.maersk.com/news/articles/2026/09/04/east-asia-typhoon-season-impacting-logistics
AVAV CLOSE910 conference moved to archive but replay unavailable
Supply chain2026-09-10 19:44
A news scan found the headline that the AVAV CLOSE910 conference was moved to the archive on September 10 at 12:50 EDT, after being listed as upcoming at 18:30. The same link for the Summit cast now gives a 404 error at 19:42:33 and 19:43. There is no conference transcript or slides in the inspected archive. The status change may be due to a possible hash change, but it does not include new cash commentary. The Q1 baseline free cash flow of -35.954 million, with an AxS of 18.003% and an SCDE of -6.613%, remains the same as previously verified, with no new commentary added. https://investor.avinc.com/news-events/events-and-presentations ; https://event.summitcast.com/view/e82pfcbT4UwH79PoqVE5jB/FdrSzAFqDzzqoXN2PC5xKh
TSM CLOSE910 August revenue no observed correction = 514806
Supply chain2026-09-10 19:44
A news scan found the headline that on September 10, at 19:42, the table for August 2026 showed TSM's revenue was NT$514,806, which is a 53.3% increase from the same time last year, or year over year, which means compared to the same period in the previous year. The revenue remained unchanged at lunchtime. The revenue does not reflect new accepted capacity or cash. https://investor.tsmc.com/english/monthly-revenue/2026
FTK CLOSE910 Saudi guidance remains forecast
Supply chain2026-09-10 19:44
A news scan found the headline 'FTK CLOSE910 Saudi guidance remains forecast'. A regulatory filing, known as an 8-K, was made on September 9, with the identifier 0000928054-26-000087. According to this filing, Browserdeck will keep its international operations going for more than 40 million through mid-2027, which is more than the 12.6 million in the first half of the year. The company confirmed that there are no new paid invoices and that billing is on standby. The baseline from August 6 was kept. A calculation, using a method called Python, found that the expected return was -7.62944496 percent. Another method, called raw half Kelly, found a return of -0.1946214086 percent. No new test of the system, known as a backtest, was done. https://data.sec.gov/submissions/CIK0000928054.json ; https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/928054/000092805426000087/ex992-lakestreetinvestor.htm
GD CLOSE910 aircraft instrument and filing coverage
Supply chain2026-09-10 19:44
A news scan found the headline about the latest Form 4 on September 4 at 19:42:34. Another scan found the latest news on September 9, Patriot Day, and September 8, regarding Canadian product actions, at 19:43. No specific instrument or cash delivery related to Bombardier was found in reliable sources. A threat to aircraft was already reported in the media on September 8, but this is not new evidence. A challenge related to Bombardier, listed as Job 173, and a CENTCOM error remain unresolved. https://data.sec.gov/submissions/CIK0000040533.json ; https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/
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