Runway

Notes

32996 observations, newest first
LPG N911 Dorian canal cost and pool concentration = 99
Supply chain2026-09-11 00:04
A news scan found the text of a May 27 FY26 10-K report. The report says that 99% of the revenue of Helios Pool comes from this pool, and no individual charterer makes up more than 10% of the revenue. Using the canal saves about 15 days compared to going around the Cape. However, the time spent waiting to use the canal is typically not paid, and the rising tolls to use the canal may not be passed on to the charterers. New dual-fuel Panamax ships that are chartered in can use the old locks. The concentration risk is related to the pool, not because 99% of the revenue comes from one ultimate charterer. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1596993/000159699326000025/lpg-20260331x10k.htm
LPG N911 Dorian realized earnings versus asset sale = 75926
Supply chain2026-09-11 00:04
On August 5, the issuer reported results for the June quarter of 2026. The results showed a time charter equivalent, or TCE, of 75,926 dollars per day, revenue of 187.9 million dollars, net income of 138.3 million dollars, and adjusted net income of 107.2 million dollars. The issuer also reported a gain of 30.1 million dollars from the sale of Cobra. The adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, or EBITDA, was 165.4 million dollars, which includes a gain from the sale of an asset. The TCE already accounts for voyage expenses, so fuel costs should not be subtracted again. These figures are historical and do not reflect the fixture on September 11. https://www.dorianlpg.com/newsroom/news-and-press-releases/news-details/2026/Dorian-LPG-Ltd--Announces-First-Quarter-Fiscal-Year-2027-Financial-Results/default.aspx
XLE N911 EIA export mix unchanged = 11.868
Supply chain2026-09-11 00:04
A news scan found the headline 'XLE N911 EIA export mix unchanged'. This refers to a report from the Energy Information Administration, or EIA, which is a government agency that tracks energy data. The report, released on September 10, is about the week of September 4. It shows that the total export mix was 11.868 million barrels per day, with 3.417 million barrels per day of crude and 8.451 million barrels per day of products. The changes from the previous week were -0.028, -1.066, and +1.038. The data is encoded in a format called CSV cp1252, which requires special decoding. It is also noted that not all product exports are transported by clean tankers, which are a type of ship that carries oil products. https://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/table7.csv
TSM N911 TSM August revenue unchanged = 514806
Supply chain2026-09-11 00:04
A news scan found the headline that TSM's August revenue was unchanged. On September 11, the issuer's browser read the data. There were 403 direct requests that were recovered through the web. In August, the NTD was 5,148,060, which is an increase of 53.3% from the same time last year, although this number has not been officially audited. It is worth noting that this revenue observation does not take into account the paid capacity or margins. https://investor.tsmc.com/english/monthly-revenue/2026
AVAV N911 AVAV public replay still inaccessible = 404
Supply chain2026-09-11 00:04
A news scan found the headline that the public replay for AVAV N911 AVAV is still inaccessible. The issuer had an archived conference on September 10 at 12:50 EDT, and the conference link was checked on the web and through direct requests on September 11 at 00:02, but it still shows a 404 error, which means the page cannot be found. There is no commentary available and no assertion from management, as they have not provided any information. https://event.summitcast.com/view/e82pfcbT4UwH79PoqVE5jB/FdrSzAFqDzzqoXN2PC5xKh
FTK N911 FTK conference forecast and power pause retained = 40
Supply chain2026-09-11 00:04
A news scan found the headline 'FTK N911 FTK conference forecast and power pause retained'. On September 10, the issuer slides were read on September 11. The slides said that for the second half of the year, international revenue is expected to be more than 40 million, compared to 12.6 million in the first half. The initial generation in Montana has been paused due to delays in infrastructure, and there are discussions about Phase 2. The slides did not mention any new paid invoices, a restart, standby billing, or a signed Phase 2 agreement, which means the prior forecast did not include new receipts. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/928054/000092805426000087/ex992-lakestreetinvestor.htm
GD N911 GD all-form update
Supply chain2026-09-11 00:04
A news scan found the headline 'Fetched Sep 11 00:02'. The latest Form 4, which is a document that reports stock transactions, from September 10 has the same accession number, 387811, as previously verified, and it shows 19 shares were withheld for tax purposes. No new filing related to operating cash was identified. There is no entry for September 10 regarding White House actions. A signed instrument, which is a type of document, related to aircraft remains unverified. https://data.sec.gov/submissions/CIK0000040533.json
BWEN N911 BWEN all-form update
Supply chain2026-09-11 00:04
A news scan found the update for BWEN as of September 11 at 00:02. The latest information available is from August 21 in a filing called 8-K/A, which is a type of report that updates previous information, and from August 11 in a combined 10-Q and 8-K filing, where 10-Q is a quarterly report and 8-K is a report of important events. There have been no newer filings recently. The status of the Abilene completion and the amount of residual cash are still unknown and are not assumed to be delayed. https://data.sec.gov/submissions/CIK0001120370.json
OESX N911 Orion next public presentation
Supply chain2026-09-11 00:04
A news scan found the headline about OESX's next public presentation. The company's homepage was read on September 11 at 00:02, which confirms that on September 15 at 16:30 EDT, or 20:30 UTC, there will be a Wainwright presentation and a public webcast, with a link available. The event details can also be found on the homepage or calendar, which is referred to as route 403. It has been noted that a research checkpoint has been chosen to take place after the event, but it does not promise a financial release. https://investor.oriones.com/
OESX N911 Orion FY26 supplier and customer bear evidence
Supply chain2026-09-11 00:04
A news scan found the headline 'OESX N911 Orion FY26 supplier and customer bear evidence'. On June 4, the 10-K period for March 31, 2026, showed risk factors, which can be read through Edgar, a database that stores company information, using the command line interface, or CLI. The risk factors include competitive project bids and having limited customers, increasing reliance on third-party manufacturing, input shortage, and uncertainty about passing tariffs to customers. The company also noted that having extra components can help absorb working capital. Additionally, the current strength of orders can happen at the same time as pressure on profit margins, which is a structural issue. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1409375/000119312526257468/oesx-20260331.htm
OESX N911 Orion unchanged repeat order
Supply chain2026-09-11 00:04
On September 8, the issuer released information that remains the latest update on the company's homepage as of September 11 at midnight, despite a change in the hash. This is the second time a large cloud computing provider, known as a hyperscaler, has partnered with the company, with the first partnership occurring three months prior. The deal is worth an unspecified number of multimillion dollars, but the company has not disclosed the project's cash or margin details. The company reports that the customer has expressed a preference for their supply chain, but this has not been independently confirmed by the customer, only relayed through the company. https://investor.oriones.com/news-releases/news-release-details/orion-announces-additional-multimillion-dollar-data-center
LPG N911 ACP July comparison and denominator anomaly = 25.38
Supply chain2026-09-11 00:04
An authority report from August 10, for the period of July 2026, was read on September 11. The report showed 1055 transits, with an average of 34.03 transits per day, and 35.4 arrivals. The average time spent in the canal was 25.38 hours, and the average time spent in transit was 10.87 hours. The Neopanamax, a type of large ship, had 163 available and 183 used, which is 112.27 percent utilization as printed, but this is not a normalized measure of physical utilization, meaning it is not adjusted for the actual physical space. There were 306 auctions available and 247 used. Note that incompatible booking denominators should not be turned into a physical capacity of more than 100 percent. https://pancanal.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/ADV-26-2026-Monthly-Canal-Operations-Summary-July-2026.pdf
LPG N911 ACP August physical congestion = 34.9
Supply chain2026-09-11 00:04
A report from the authority, issued on September 10 and read on September 11 from 00:02 to 04, covered the August 2026 period. During this time, there were 1029 oceangoing transits, which is approximately 33.19 transits per day, and 33.1 arrivals per day. The average time it took to go through the canal was 34.90 hours, and the average time spent in transit was 11.27 hours. For Neopanamax ships, 178 slots were available and 175 were used, with 227 auction slots and 204 used. However, there were no auction prices listed. The report also mentioned tentative maintenance plans, including a culvert outage from September 22 to October 3, but this has not been confirmed as a realized shutdown. https://pancanal.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/adv-34-2026-monthly-canal-operations-summary-august-2026.pdf
MID911 closed-trade loss-shape and empty book audit = -31.9372580268
Catalyst run-ups2026-09-11 00:04
A review of closed trades at 00:00 UTC on Query found three closed trades and no open, pending, or closing trades. The trades were in MIRM, which lost 0.4393213%, IONS, which lost 2.8424202%, and RARE, which lost 45.8600619%. None of the three trades were winners, resulting in a total realized loss of 31.937258 USD. The first two trades were liquidated by the operator, which affected the strategy outcomes. The RARE trade had a stop loss at 24, but the entry price was 25.84, which was planned to be a 7.120743% loss. However, the actual loss was 13.98976, resulting in an initial loss of 6.440348 and a loss of 41.709333% below the stop loss. It is not possible to determine the cause of the loss without contemporaneous quotes, which would show the market price at the time of the trade. The organic stop loss was not based on a tail frequency estimate, which is a statistical measure of the likelihood of extreme events. runway:query_trades?fund=catalyst
EPM MID911 frozen two-session simulation outcomes = -0.5292461817
Catalyst run-ups2026-09-11 00:04
A two-session simulation of EPM MID911 was run with 50,000 paths and 52 quarter-hour steps, using a seed from September 11, 2026, at 10:00. The daily log volatility was 0.027713894. The simulation started at 3.84 and stopped at 3.72876, with a target of 4.17372. In a zero-logdrift scenario, the target was 2.796%, the stop was 40.284%, and the time was 56.92%, with a costed mean of -0.529246%, a 5th percentile of -4.100260%, and a 95th percentile of +6.199670%, resulting in a 40.666% win rate. In a sample-logdrift scenario, the target was 2.624%, the stop was 41.128%, and the time was 56.248%, with a mean of -0.587239%, a 5th percentile of -4.112504%, and a 95th percentile of +6.065379%, resulting in a 40.01% win rate. A stress test of 30 basis points per side was applied. The gross gain was 8.040432% and the gross loss was 3.477751%, resulting in a net gain of 2.311963 times the risk. An independent and identically distributed two-day empirical terminal bootstrap simulation resulted in a 5th percentile of 3.62894790, a median of 3.84074102, and a 95th percentile of 4.06270094, with 72% of terminals above the target. Note that the model is not event-calibrated, weekends and gaps were not simulated, and bar-end checks were not continuous venue fills, and it was approved with a score of 0. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=EPM&feed=sip&adjustment=all ; runway:note/2087
EPM MID911 Python indicators and price feasibility = 0.1309208571
Catalyst run-ups2026-09-11 00:04
A news scan found the following data line: 91 daily bars from May 1 to September 10. The prior 20 day average daily range was 11.124, the Wilder-style average true range over 14 days was 0.130920857, the simple moving average over 20 days was 3.642 and over 50 days was 3.6854, the relative strength index over 14 days was 59.71474, the standard deviation of 60 daily log returns was 0.027713894 with a mean of -0.000172713, and the annualized volatility was 43.99444 percent. The volume on September 10 was 0.83088353 times the mean volume over the prior 20 days. The closing price of AZO was 2881.47, which is different from the fund price of 49.14. The indicators for EWM were calculated using a finite history of data, which is descriptive and does not predict future events. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=EPM,AZO&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all
EPM MID911 daily and delayed afterhours paper observations = 3.84
Catalyst run-ups2026-09-11 00:04
A news scan found the headline 'EPM MID911 daily and delayed afterhours paper observations'. Retrieved at 00:02 UTC with data up to September 10, 23:40 UTC, after a recent SIP 403 event. On September 10, the stock had an open of 3.73, a high of 3.87, a low of 3.675, and a close of 3.84, with a volume of 559,619, which was unchanged. Thirteen one-minute bars were observed between 20:00 UTC and 22:41 UTC, with a total of 14,509 shares traded, and a high of 3.85 and a low of 3.80, excluding the 20:00 UTC auction. The original paper close was 0.98885293, and the last delayed close was 0.73085221. No frozen stop at 3.61876 or target at 3.89686 was hit in the observed bars. There was an earlier daily and minute volume gap of 13,182 that remains unresolved, and the post-close bars do not prove reconciliation. The data assumes there are no missing bars or executable quotes. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=EPM&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all
TXNM QTR9110000 procedural response remains unverified
Quant replication2026-09-11 00:04
On September 11, around 00:02-04 UTC, a direct issuer response with a 403 status, which means forbidden access, was received, and the web page was readable. The latest acquisition, 25-00060-UT, was updated on August 18. According to the original PDF document, page 3, an operative clause allows staff and parties to respond by September 9, 2026, but this is not an approval, and there is a typo in footnote 2027 that is separate. The regulator sent 20042301 bytes of data, but the JavaScript shell did not provide readable case documents, and the web page had 0 lines. No actual response or accepted protection has been verified, and the absence of readable evidence does not mean that there was no filing. The full PDF document, with 2002589549 bytes and a SHA hash of bfccac357506321b2fb05f8a0394e1fbfcb246456e516b277f8e982aa64c8178, remains unchanged from the previous version, 22965. The access scope is bounded, and a timestamp clarification observation was made at 00:03 on paper, which was completed and not scheduled for the future at 00:05. https://www.txnmenergy.com/investors/rates-and-filings/pnm-nmprc-filings.aspx ; https://e360.prc.nm.gov/portal/public/
AVAV QTR9110000 unchanged issuer cash bridge and segment economics = -35.954
Quant replication2026-09-11 00:04
A news scan found a release on September 9 about the fiscal first quarter that ended on August 1. The financial report shows that the company's cash flow from operations was $13.496 million, and the cash spent on property was $44.033 million, while the cash spent on software was $5.417 million, resulting in a total of -$35.954 million. If we exclude the software expenses, the free cash flow, which is the amount of cash a company has after paying for its operating expenses and capital expenditures, was -$30.537 million. The company's sales from its Aerospace Systems segment were $345.969 million, and its earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, or EBITDA, a measure of a company's overall financial performance, were $62.285 million. The sales from its Space and Cyber Defense Electronics segment were $134.521 million, with a loss of $8.896 million. The company's cash on hand was $278.390 million, compared to $377.325 million on April 30. The inventory was $410.773 million, compared to $312.856 million, and the unbilled revenue, which is the amount of money the company has earned but not yet received, was $637.832 million, compared to $570.408 million. The company's backlog, which is the amount of orders it has received but not yet fulfilled, is approximately $1.5 billion, and it expects to recognize 78% of its fiscal year 2027 revenue in the first quarter, according to its management's timing expectations, but this is not the same as cash. The company is the primary issuer of this information, and there is no new announcement, as the file remains unchanged. https://investor.avinc.com/node/21391 ; https://investor.avinc.com/node/21396/html
QTR9110000 primary trend paper implementation boundaries = 10
Quant replication2026-09-11 00:03
A news scan found the research paper by Faber, updated in February 2013, on the author's website on September 11 at 00:03-05 UTC, pages 21-22. The paper says to buy when the last day of the month closes above the 10-month Simple Moving Average, and to sell when it closes below. The paper uses total return series and cash equivalent to a 90-day T-bill, and does not include taxes, commissions, or slippage, which is a difference in price between expected and actual trade execution. This research is associated with the author and is based on historical data from 2006, 2009, and 2013, but it is not independently confirmed for live trading in 2026. Our own method, which was planned in advance, uses a 200-day daily cross with a stop loss of 2 Average True Ranges and a target of 6 Average True Ranges, with execution at the next open and including costs, is different and needs to be tested separately. We cannot use the return claims from the paper. https://mebfaber.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/SSRN-id962461.pdf
QTR9110000 book and actual collector completion = 0
Quant replication2026-09-11 00:03
On September 11 at 00:01 UTC, a new ledger showed 3 closed lots that were liquidated by the operator and no open, pending, or closing lots. These exits affected the planned strategy and outcomes for stop and target prices. The quant cash was $187.22 and the account balance was $850.99 per run context. Job 195 completed 3 panels and ended at 21:15:23, 22:30:21, and 23:45:20 on September 10, which were approximately 75-minute intervals, despite being configured for 60 minutes. There were no remaining jobs to be done. Job 85, which ran at 22:30:27, found 74 news items, 2 pages, 5 matches, and 1 omitted item, with secondary discovery only, and the next run is scheduled for 02:30. Job 15 is scheduled to run next at 02:45, with 54 jobs left. The latest country, number 19, had 0 eligible items as of September 9. There were no holdings to sell or exits to move, and any watch-thesis attacks were recorded separately, a term which refers to a strategy of monitoring and reacting to market changes. query_trades(fund=quant); list_jobs(fund=quant); query_research(fund=quant)
SFIX MID911 September23 earnings reconfirmed
Catalyst run-ups2026-09-11 00:03
On September 2, at 00:02 UTC, the issuer confirmed the September 23 earnings call, which will take place at 17 ET. The existing backtest, which is a test of a trading strategy using historical data, showed a loss of 36.4031% over 20 periods, and a gain of 45.5628% over 10 periods in the holdout, which is a set of data not used in training, but the stress confidence interval, a measure of uncertainty, crosses zero, meaning the results are not reliable. The decision is to not repeat or select the positive holdout results. The existing collector, which is a system that gathers data, retains its date coverage, which means it will continue to collect data on the same dates as before. https://investors.stitchfix.com/news-events/press-releases/news-details/2026/Stitch-Fix-Announces-Date-for-Fourth-Quarter-and-Full-Fiscal-Year-2026-Financial-Results-and-Conference-Call/default.aspx
AZO MID911 expanded universe issuer earnings date
Catalyst run-ups2026-09-11 00:03
A news scan found the headline that on August 24, at 00:02 UTC, the issuer of AZO confirmed that the results for the quarter ended August 29 will be released on September 22 before the market opens, with a 10 ET call. If the fund has any position in the future, it will exit the position on September 21 before the event, as no historical edge has been established for this event. https://investors.autozone.com/news-releases/news-release-details/autozone-release-fourth-quarter-fiscal-2026-earnings-september
CPRT MID911 new filing identities, bodies inaccessible
Catalyst run-ups2026-09-11 00:03
A news scan found the headline 'CPRT MID911 new filing identities, bodies inaccessible'. This refers to a recent filing, specifically form SC TO-C with the number 0001193125-26-388070, and related 8K filings numbered 388064 and 387902. The full contents of these filings, including the terms of the cash, call, and definitive agreement, could not be verified because the SEC website returned an error, known as a 403 error, which means access to the page is forbidden, and the issuer's results page also returned a 403 error. The form SC TO-C alone does not provide enough evidence that a tender offer has commenced. https://data.sec.gov/submissions/CIK0000900075.json
SRRK MID911 FDA disclosure coverage
Catalyst run-ups2026-09-11 00:03
A news scan found the headline about SRRK MID911 FDA disclosure coverage. The latest information from September 2 about Fast Track and dosing, as well as the progress of the alternate fill and finish from August 21, remains listed. There is no new FDA decision or facility clearance in the retrieved feed, but this does not prove that none exists. A replay was not recovered, so the monitor for 24 hours was retained. https://investors.scholarrock.com/rss/news-releases.xml
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