Notes

A news scan found the following data line for MG R92104 assumed downside scenarios 16-18: it is a list of downside scenarios with specific prices and probabilities. The list includes three scenarios with a downside price of 17, and different assumed pre-expiry probabilities and survival rates. The net mean, loss percentage, target hit percentage, and half Kelly all-in dollars are also listed for each scenario. The data line mentions a seed92104, notes that the probabilities are not observed, and includes details about a full loss, friction, and capped payoff, with no actual option stop paths. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/option-chain/MG?feed=indicative

A news scan found the following data line: a list of downside scenarios for MG R92104, which is a type of investment, with the following details: the price that is considered a downside is 17, the probability of this happening before the investment expires is 0.01 or 1%, and the probability of the investment surviving is either 1 or 0.25, which refers to the chance that the investment will still be valid. The list includes three scenarios with different probabilities and survival rates, with net mean values ranging from -12.31645227272727 to -5.621413636363631, loss percentages from 99.01100000000001 to 95.078, target hit percentages from 0.989 to 4.922, and half Kelly all-in dollars of 0. This data is based on a seed, or a starting point, of 92104, and does not reflect observed probabilities, or actual events. The data also assumes a full loss plus 2 USD friction, or additional costs, and a capped payoff of 1.702273 per share. There are no actual option stop paths, which are plans for when to stop an investment. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/option-chain/MG?feed=indicative

A news scan found the following data line for MG R92104: it assumed downside scenarios 10-12. The data included three scenarios with the following details: the first scenario had a downside price of 18.3, an assumed pre-expiry probability of 0.05, an assumed survival of 0.25, a net mean of -11.7271, a loss percentage of 98.663, a target hit percentage of 0, and a half Kelly all-in dollars amount of 0. The second scenario had a downside price of 18.3, an assumed pre-expiry probability of 0.1, an assumed survival of 1, a net mean of 3.0306, a loss percentage of 89.982, a target hit percentage of 0, and a half Kelly all-in dollars amount of 9.6083. The third scenario had a downside price of 18.3, an assumed pre-expiry probability of 0.1, an assumed survival of 0.25, a net mean of -9.6956, a loss percentage of 97.468, a target hit percentage of 0, and a half Kelly all-in dollars amount of 0. This data was labeled as seed92104, with notes that the probabilities were not observed, and that the loss included a 2 USD friction, with a capped payoff of 1.702273 per share. It was also noted that there were no actual option stop paths. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/option-chain/MG?feed=indicative

A news scan found the following data: MG R92104 has three assumed downside scenarios. The first scenario has a downside price of 18.3, an assumed pre-expiry probability of 0.01, an assumed survival of 1, a net mean of -12.2643, a loss percentage of 98.979, a target hit percentage of 0, and a half Kelly all-in dollars value of 0. The second scenario has a downside price of 18.3, an assumed pre-expiry probability of 0.01, an assumed survival of 0.25, a net mean of -13.5767, a loss percentage of 99.751, a target hit percentage of 0, and a half Kelly all-in dollars value of 0. The third scenario has a downside price of 18.3, an assumed pre-expiry probability of 0.05, an assumed survival of 1, a net mean of -5.3844, a loss percentage of 94.932, a target hit percentage of 0, and a half Kelly all-in dollars value of 0. This data is from seed92104 and does not include observed probabilities. The loss includes a 2 USD friction and a capped payoff of 1.702273 per share. There are no actual option stop paths. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/option-chain/MG?feed=indicative

A news scan found the following data: MG R92104 has three assumed downside scenarios. The first scenario has a downside price of 19.84, an assumed pre-expiry probability of 0.05, an assumed survival of 0.25, a net mean of -13.7976, a loss percentage of 98.735, a target hit percentage of 0, and a half Kelly all-in dollars value of 0. The second scenario has a downside price of 19.84, an assumed pre-expiry probability of 0.1, an assumed survival of 1, a net mean of -12.3928, a loss percentage of 89.955, a target hit percentage of 0, and a half Kelly all-in dollars value of 0. The third scenario has a downside price of 19.84, an assumed pre-expiry probability of 0.1, an assumed survival of 0.25, a net mean of -13.6136, a loss percentage of 97.585, a target hit percentage of 0, and a half Kelly all-in dollars value of 0. This data is from seed92104 and does not include observed probabilities. The loss includes a 2 USD friction and a capped payoff of 1.702273 per share. There are no actual option stop paths. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/option-chain/MG?feed=indicative

A news scan found the following data: MG R92104 assumed downside scenarios 1-3 are listed as follows: the first scenario has a downside price of 19.84, an assumed pre-expiry probability of 0.01, an assumed survival of 1, a net mean of -13.840639999999995, a loss percentage of 99.004, a target hit percentage of 0, and a half Kelly all-in dollars amount of 0. The second scenario has a downside price of 19.84, an assumed pre-expiry probability of 0.01, an assumed survival of 0.25, a net mean of -13.961599999999995, a loss percentage of 99.76, a target hit percentage of 0, and a half Kelly all-in dollars amount of 0. The third scenario has a downside price of 19.84, an assumed pre-expiry probability of 0.05, an assumed survival of 1, a net mean of -13.213439999999995, a loss percentage of 95.084, a target hit percentage of 0, and a half Kelly all-in dollars amount of 0. This data is related to seed92104 and notes that the probabilities are not observed, with a full loss plus 2 USD friction and a capped payoff of 1.702273 per share, and there are no actual option stop paths. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/option-chain/MG?feed=indicative

At 86.66 each, there is a potential gap loss for XLK, XLE, and XLV of 13.7921094, 13.4894596, and 11.1064541 respectively, with a joint loss of 38.3880231 and a common risk ceiling of 125.5102307. The model uses a calculation called ATR, which stands for Average True Range, a measure of volatility, and assumes a value of 2 times the ATR divided by the adjusted close price. It also uses a value called g, which is the maximum of 0.10 and 2 times the absolute worst historical gap between the adjusted open and prior close prices. The potential loss is calculated as N times the sum of the ATR, g, and 0.005, but this is not a guaranteed loss bound. The target scenario shows potential dollar gains of 15.9207452, 17.8722218, and 9.2091978, and gross returns of 5.539238, 5.240273, and 4.129368, but these are not probabilities or actual outcomes. The account has a 2% value of 19.9852, the position has a 25% value of 249.815, and the fund has a value of 260. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars

A news scan found the headline is not available, but a data line was accessed on September 21, 2026, from a direct issuer workbook in XML format. The newest listed rows for the sectors represented by XLK, XLE, and XLV, excluding any records from June 22, show that the amounts to be paid on June 24, 2026, are 0.227918, 0.384876, and 0.656252 respectively. A distribution amount for September is not present in the retrieved rows, but this absence does not prove that there will be no distribution. The differences of 0.22, 0.38, and 0.64 can be compared for diagnostic purposes only and do not assert any payout. https://www.ssga.com/library-content/products/fund-data/etfs/us/spdr-etf-historical-distributions.xlsx

The MG R92104 calculated mechanics are as follows: the offer is 20.35, the premium to offer percentage is 1.9656019656019597, the put breakeven is 19.88, and the put costed breakeven is 19.86. The target stock is 18.297727272727272, which is 10.084878266696462 percent below the offer. The offer put payoff is 0, and the prior close 19.84 payoff is 0.16000000000000014. The prior close 19.84 break even probability is 0.8749999999999991. There are 11 days before expiry, with a minimum event expiry of 2026-11-03. This data comes from research/mg_audit.py, seed 92104, and is based on legacy six normalized stock reactions from observation 32462 and the current indicative quote. Note that these scenarios are assumed and do not represent live probability or actual option profit and loss. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars

A news scan found the headline is not available, but a data line shows the following information about MG R92104: it calculated legacy with six normalized stock reactions from observation 32462 and the current indicative quote. The results include a median percentage of 9.511654330248309, a p80 percentage of 11.818181818181817, and a hurdle percentage of 4.19277108433735. The p80 payoff is 1.702272727272728 and the multiple is 14.185606060606068. The signed profitable value is 1 and the net mean is 14.371212121212134. The bootstrap mean confidence interval 95 is between -13.999999999999998 and 71.1136363636364. The loo means are 20.04545454545456, -13.999999999999996, 20.04545454545456, 20.04545454545456, 20.04545454545456, and 20.04545454545456. The train proxy return percentage is 12.822727272727285, the drawdown percentage is 1.4000000000000012, the win rate percentage is 33.33333333333333, and the number of trades is 3. The train proxy net dollars are -13.999999999999998, 156.2272727272728, and -13.999999999999998. The holdout proxy return percentage is -4.200000000000004, the drawdown percentage is 4.200000000000004, the win rate percentage is 0, and the number of trades is 3. The holdout proxy net dollars are -13.999999999999998, -13.999999999999998, and -13.999999999999998. This data is from research/mg_audit.py, seed 92104, and scenarios are assumed, not live probability or actual option profit and loss. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars

A calculation was done using the research script mg_audit.py with the seed number 92104. This calculation looked at six past stock reactions that were normalized, which means adjusted to a standard scale, from observation number 32462 and the current quote. Different scenarios were assumed for this calculation, but it does not show the actual probability of these scenarios happening or the actual profit and loss from options, which is also known as PnL. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars

A news scan found the text about option contracts for Sep 21. The put option open interest is 247 and the call option open interest is 408 as of Sep 17. The multiplier is 100, the size is 100, the expiry date is Oct 16, and the root is the standard DSX. According to the Alpaca March 2025 FAQ, non-penny orders under 3 typically have a 0.05 increment. Orders that are off the increment limit are routed to NOM if possible, otherwise they are rejected. Orders with a decimal limit or stop of 3 or more are rejected. Therefore, 0.13 is not universally invalid but is route constrained. 0.065 is not a valid broker stop. The local fund exit threshold may be synthetic and basis unverified, so broker stop precision cannot be imposed blindly. The indicative best bid and offer derivative is not the actual OPRA, and there is no inference that 0.08 and 0.13 are executable. https://alpaca.markets/support/options-pricing-increments-and-options-order-handling; option_contracts; https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/historical-option-data

On September 21, the list_jobs verifies that 281 jobs are active, with 26 remaining, and the last exit was at 02:31 UTC with an END of 11/11. The next run is scheduled for September 22 at 02:31. The script cutoff is now 1826 days, which gives a start date of September 21, 2021, with 1254 rolling 60-day endpoints. The P90 values are XLK 0.1837802423, XLE 0.2064166492, and XLV 0.1063103161. The trading calculation is anchored to the last five calendar years, with the latest completed session being September 18, which has 1255 endpoints, and values of 0.1837150384, 0.2062338076, and 0.1062681488. The difference is due to the window convention, not new price evidence. The target convention of 455 will be preserved and recomputed from the completed session. Note that the collector is for research purposes only. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars

A news scan found the headline 'ELG.DE R92104 latest completed quoted close EUR'. This is a data line showing that the stock ELG.DE had a quoted close of EUR 142.6 on September 18 at 15:35:06 UTC, according to Worldquote, which was retrieved on September 21 at 04:00 UTC. The EURUSD exchange rate was 1.1478 at 04:03:09 UTC on September 21, also from Worldquote. This information is based on delayed quotes, which are not current prices and cannot be used to buy or sell stocks. https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v8/finance/chart/ELG.DE

A presentation from September 16 found that after a cancellation on June 8, ELG.DE had 17.160 million shares. As of June 30, the company owned 3,747 of its own shares, according to the first half report. On May 11, an anchor sale of 1.86 million existing shares was made at a price of 176 EUR, which was a sale by a shareholder, not a new issuance of shares by the company itself. https://www.elmos.com/fileadmin/elmos-website/about-us/investor_relations/finanzberichte/2026/20260916_investor_presentation.pdf

A primary customer has expanded its 18-year relationship with ELG.DE to include 130nm deep-trench isolation, starting on September 9, 2026. The customer sampled E550.01 and plans to start serial production in 2027, with eFlash production also planned for 2027. The agreement guarantees capacity through 2037, but does not specify the number of wafers or prices. The process-specific capacity is not immediately interchangeable with the capacity in Dortmund, meaning it cannot be easily used in place of the Dortmund capacity. https://www.elmos.com/english/about-elmos/investor/financial-news/news/elmos-and-sk-keyfoundry-expand-their-collaboration-on-130nm-technology-and-agree-on-long-term-wafer-capacity.html

The final accounting for the LFUS R92104 Dortmund acquisition is now complete. As of July 29, 2026, the company's June 27 10Q report shows that the acquisition was closed on December 31, 2024, with an approximate value of 94 million euros, which is close to the 93 million euros announced in 2023. The net purchase price in US dollars was 95.942 million, which includes goodwill of 57.321 million and property, plant, and equipment of 30.132 million. The different currency and date definitions, as well as the distinction between gross and net values, mean that there is no apparent loss from the purchase based on the fee ratio. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/889331/000162828026050481/lfus-20260627.htm

A financial report from February 19, 2026, shows that Arrow had 9.5% net sales, with 65% coming from foreign countries and 24% from China. The report lists some risks, including problems with suppliers, integrating acquired companies, and tariffs. As of December 27, there were no guarantees of debt to third parties that are not included in the balance sheet, as defined by the SEC, which does not contradict a later release about guarantees within the group or by contract. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/889331/000162828026009585/lfus-20251227.htm

A review of the audited financial year 2025 report, pages 63-65 and 81, found that no single customer accounted for more than 10% of sales in fiscal year 2025. The company relies on several foundries and Outsourced Semiconductor Assembly and Test providers, mostly located in Asia, which means it still depends on individual partners. The cost of assembling products using gold is not fully covered. The company has fixed obligations to buy wafers, which can turn into expenses for inventory or unused capacity if demand is weak. The report did not specify the percentage of sales from any particular supplier. https://www.elmos.com/fileadmin/elmos-website/about-us/investor_relations/finanzberichte/2026/elmos-gb-2025-e.pdf

As of August 4, 2026, the company expects sales growth of 12 percent, plus or minus 2 percentage points, compared to the fiscal year 2025 sales of 582.6 million euros. The operating EBIT, which is earnings before interest and taxes, is expected to be between 23 and 26 percent. Capital expenditures, which are expenses for things like equipment and property, excluding development costs, are expected to be around 5 percent. The operating adjusted free cash flow, which is the amount of cash available after expenses, is expected to be 19 percent, plus or minus 2 percentage points. The company assumes a foreign exchange rate of 1.15 US dollars per euro. This guidance does not include the effects of cash-settled incentives and was released before the September fee. https://www.elmos.com/fileadmin/elmos-website/about-us/investor_relations/finanzberichte/2026/20260804_q2_2026_e.pdf

The company ELG.DE released its first half report on August 4. The report showed revenue of 314.5 million euros, which is an increase of 15.4 percent. The operating EBIT, which is a measure of profitability called earnings before interest and taxes, was 75.8 million euros, a 24.1 percent increase. The reported EBIT was 63.7 million euros, a 20.3 percent increase. The net income was 47.3 million euros, and the earnings per share, which is the profit per share of stock, was 2.75 euros. The company had a net cash position of 15.7 million euros, and its cash and securities totaled 116.6 million euros. The financial debt was 100.9 million euros. The backlog, which is the amount of work or orders that the company has to complete, for the next three months is more than the sales of the previous three months, which is not the standard way of measuring order intake and billing. https://www.elmos.com/fileadmin/elmos-website/about-us/investor_relations/finanzberichte/2026/20260804_q2_2026_e.pdf

A news scan found the report for the first half of 2026: the operating cash flow was 52.984 million euros, minus 10.536 million euros for intangible items, minus 8.328 million euros for property, plant, and equipment, plus 0.353 million euros for disposals, which equals 34.473 million euros in cash-inclusive free cash flow. Management's operating-adjusted free cash flow was 55.5 million euros, which excludes 21.063 million euros in incentive payments. The capital expenditure for the first half was 8.8 million euros, which does not include capitalized development costs, and the total cash investments were 18.864 million euros. In the second quarter, the cash-inclusive free cash flow was -6.199 million euros. https://www.elmos.com/fileadmin/elmos-website/about-us/investor_relations/finanzberichte/2026/20260804_q2_2026_e.pdf

A news scan found the report for the first half of the year, which ended on June 30, 2026. According to the report, the company had to make a cash settlement, which reduced the retained earnings by 112.243 million euros, and added 12.081 million euros to the profit and loss statement. The company also made cash payments of 21.063 million euros in the first half of the year. The provision for incentives is tied to the value of the company's stock, which is traded under the ticker ELG.DE, and its value can change, it is not a fixed debt and not all of it has to be paid immediately. https://www.elmos.com/fileadmin/elmos-website/about-us/investor_relations/finanzberichte/2026/20260804_q2_2026_e.pdf

A financial report for ELG.DE, published in March 2026, lists the company's future minimum contractual obligations as of December 31, 2025, which total 38.959 million euros, compared to the previous year. These obligations include a fixed purchase obligation in Dortmund, as well as leases, maintenance, insurance, and delivery obligations. The total obligations due in the following years are: 122.470 million euros in 2026, 33.956 million euros in 2027, 21.089 million euros in 2028, 14.202 million euros in 2029, and 0.027 million euros in 2030. Note that these obligations should not be considered as fab wafers, which refers to a type of semiconductor manufacturing, or as part of the terms amended in September. https://www.elmos.com/fileadmin/elmos-website/about-us/investor_relations/finanzberichte/2026/elmos-gb-2025-e.pdf

A primary counterparty report from September 2017 about a September 2015 agreement says that LFUS will pay Elmos. This payment will be recognized in the third quarter. It releases cross-guarantees, which are like insurance policies between companies, and changes some restrictions on transferring and selling goods. However, it does not say how much exposure, or risk, is being waived or how the price and volume of wafers, which are like semiconductor materials, will change. The report also notes that the payment has not been verified as received. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/889331/000088933126000014/lfus-20260915.htm