Notes

A daily signal for the GLD symbol was completed at 08UTC. The data from September 11, 2026, at 04:00:00 UTC shows a closing price of 398.77. The return percentage is 18.94%. The simple moving average over 200 days, or SMA200, is 415.93, which is a calculation of the average price over the last 200 days. The price is currently below this average, as indicated by the false value for above. The average true range over 20 days, or ATR20, is 7.95, which measures the average range of prices over the last 20 days. The percentage of prices within 90% of the range, or P90, over the last 60 days is 16.78%. A stop loss, which is a price at which to automatically sell, is proposed at 382.87, and a target price is proposed at 465.69. This data comes from the source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars. The measurement was taken on September 12, and the ETF Systematic Investment Plan adjustment is based on total return, using 252 intervals and including cryptocurrency data from the last 365 days. The SMA200 is calculated using arithmetic mean, and the ATR20 is calculated using simple true-range mean. The P90 is calculated over a rolling 60-day period, using the last 5 years of data. This proposal does not include an actual order. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars

A daily signal for the symbol EEM was completed at 08UTC. The data from September 11, 2026, at 04:00:00 UTC shows a closing price of 67.84. The return percentage is 34.203758654797234. The simple moving average over 200 days, or SMA200, is 61.760349999999995, and the price is above this average. The average true range over 20 days, or ATR20, is 0.9526399999999988. The percentage of price movement over the last 90 days, or P90, is 10.717963493264469. A stop loss is proposed at 65.93472 and a target at 75.11106643383062. This data comes from the source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars. The rank of this signal is 1. The notional value is 0. This measurement was taken on September 12. The ETF SIP adjustment is based on total return, using 252 intervals and crypto365. The SMA200 is calculated using arithmetic mean, and the ATR20 is calculated using simple true-range mean. The P90 is calculated over a rolling 60-day period, using the last 5 years of data. This is a proposed allocation, and the actual order is 0. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars

A daily signal for the EFA symbol was completed at 08UTC. The data from September 11, 2026, at 04:00:00+00:00 shows a closing price of 106.7. The return percentage is 19.45812807881775. The simple moving average, or SMA, over 200 days is 100.67334999999999, and the price is above this average. The average true range, or ATR, over 20 days is 0.8808699999999987. The percentage of days the price was above the SMA over the last 90 days, or p90 percentage, is 9.630282889112697. A stop loss at 104.93826 and a target price at 116.97551184268325 were calculated. This data comes from the source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars. The rank is 4 and the notional value is 73.76. This was measured on September 12. The ETF SIP adjustment uses an all total-return proxy, with 252 intervals and crypto365. The SMA200 uses arithmetic mean and the ATR20 uses simple true-range mean. The P90 uses rolling 60-day endpoints over the last 5 years. This is a proposed allocation only, with no actual order placed yet. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars

A news scan found the headline 'IWM 08UTC completed daily signal and proposed allocation'. The IWM symbol had a close price of 288.89 on September 11, 2026, at 04:00:00+00:00, which is a return percentage of 23.457264957264947. The simple moving average, or SMA, over 200 days was 273.16515, and the price was above this average. The average true range, or ATR, over 20 days was 3.070524999999995. The percentage of days the price was above the average over the last 90 days, or P90, was 12.823844643545982. A stop price of 282.74895 and a target price of 325.93680479074 were calculated. This data came from https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars. The rank was 3 and the notional value was 73.75. This was measured on September 12, using an ETF SIP adjustment, which is a total-return proxy, over 252 intervals, with a simple moving average, or SMA, over 200 days, and an average true range, or ATR, over 20 days, which is a simple true-range mean. The P90 is a rolling 60-day calculation over the last 5 years. This is a proposed allocation only, with no actual order placed. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars

A daily signal for the QQQ symbol was completed at 08UTC. The signal was based on data from September 11, 2026, when the QQQ closed at 714.88. This represents a return of 23.69878183831673 percent. The simple moving average, or SMA, over 200 days was 659.2565, and the price was above this average. The average true range, or ATR, over 20 days was 7.868424999999997. The percentage of days the price was above the SMA over the last 90 days was 16.16958533244174 percent. A stop loss was set at 699.14315 and a target price at 830.4731316245595. The data came from https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars. This was measured on September 12, using an ETF SIP adjustment as a total-return proxy, with 252 intervals and a simple true-range mean over 20 days. The SMA was calculated arithmetically and the percentage over 90 days was based on rolling 60-day endpoints over the last 5 years. This is a proposed allocation, with a rank of 2 and a notional value of 73.75, but no actual order was placed. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars

A daily signal for the SPY symbol was completed at 08UTC. The signal was measured on September 12. The data shows that on September 11 at 04:00:00, the closing price of SPY was 764.29. The return percentage was 18.49%. The simple moving average over 200 days, also known as SMA200, was 712.05, and the price was above this average. The average true range over 20 days, also known as ATR20, was 5.45. The percentage of days with a return above 90% over a rolling 60-day period, also known as P90, was 10.84%. A stop loss was set at 753.38 and a target price was set at 847.16. The data came from the website https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars. The rank of this signal is 5 and the notional value is 0. This signal was measured using an ETF SIP adjustment, which is a way to invest a fixed amount of money at regular intervals, and a total-return proxy, which is a way to measure investment performance. The signal used 252 intervals of data and considered crypto365, which refers to cryptocurrency data over a 365-day period. The SMA200 was calculated using arithmetic mean and the ATR20 was calculated using simple true-range mean. The P90 was calculated over a rolling 60-day period with endpoints over the last 5 years. This is a proposed signal only and no actual order was placed. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars

A news scan found the announcement that TCOM's July 25 penalty announcement has been recovered. On September 12, at 08:07 UTC, it was retrieved. The issuer announced on July 25 that it received and accepted an administrative penalty from the State Administration for Market Regulation, or SAMR, and planned to make changes. The original announcement did not include the amount of the fine or detailed remedies. A call was scheduled for July 27 at 08:00 ET. This announcement replaces the previous statement that the full issuer release was unrecovered, but it does not provide the full terms of the regulator. The issuer is an interested party, not an independent regulator. No probability or cash adjustment is implied. https://investors.trip.com/news-releases/news-release-details/tripcom-group-sincerely-accepts-administrative-penalty-decision

A news scan found the following data: the last run was on 2026-09-12T06:16:02.675Z and the next run is on 2026-09-12T06:31:02.675Z, with 19 seconds remaining. The fund is crypto research-only, with 0 eligible and 0 observed as of 2026-09-12T06:16:07.038624+00:00, from the source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars. The data includes the following information for each cryptocurrency: BTC had a price of 77199.993 at 2026-09-12T05:00:00+00:00, with a high of 82233.502538071, and is not eligible. ETH had a price of 2511.935 at 2026-09-12T05:00:00+00:00, with a high of 2664.8535, and is not eligible. There was an ETH pullback event watch, which is a type of market event, with a breakout on 2026-09-11T14:00:00+00:00 and a pullback available on 2026-09-11T22:00:00+00:00, with a trigger of 2518.687664708425 and a close of 2515.682. Other cryptocurrencies reported include SOL with a price of 101.6, LTC with a price of 53.82085, XRP with a price of 1.36405, HYPE with a price of 78.61, LINK with a price of 11.5088, and UNI with a price of 6.22845, all with no signal and not eligible. The report ends with a note that it is an entry watch with observations only, and no orders were placed. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars

A news scan found the headline related to a remote job. The last run was on 2026-09-12T06:16:02.675Z and the next run is on 2026-09-12T07:16:02.675Z, with 4 remaining. The fund is for crypto research only and 0 are eligible. The observation was made on 2026-09-12T06:16:06.837767+00:00. The source of the information is https://www.okx.com/api/v5/public/time, with an offset of 0.0631 seconds and an uncertainty of 0.1011 seconds. Another source is https://www.okx.com/api/v5/public/funding-rate and https://www.okx.com/api/v5/public/open-interest. The data includes information about Bitcoin, or BTC, with a timestamp, or ts, of 1789193713603 and 1789193767469, and an age of 54.0 and 0.1 seconds, with funding rate of 0.8101 and settled rate of 0.3247, and open interest of 27390.807 coins. Similar data is available for Ethereum, or ETH, and Solana, or SOL. A news scan found the headline from https://www.circle.com/transparency with issuer date of September 10, 2026, and data about issue and redeem amounts. Another source is https://www.usdc.com/ but the raw cms value and issuer date are unparsed. The stablecoin data from https://stablecoins.llama.fi/stablecoin/2 shows a circulating value of 74462450366.86803 and breakdown by blockchain. The crypto collection has ended, with definitions and cutoffs differing, and the flow is not buying, with 0 eligible. https://www.okx.com/api/v5/public/funding-rate ; https://www.okx.com/api/v5/public/open-interest ; https://www.circle.com/transparency ; https://stablecoins.llama.fi/stablecoin/2

A news scan found the data line: {"lastRun":"2026-09-12T06:16:02.675Z","nextRun":"2026-09-12T06:31:02.675Z","remaining":19}. The fund is for crypto research only, with 0 eligible and 2026-09-12T06:16:47.038753+00:00 observed. The sources are https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-snapshots and https://blockstream.info/liquid/api/blocks. The data includes: BTC with a bid of 77190.4 and an ask of 77220.552, age of 40, ok of 1, depth USD of 76.5/76.6, and hurdle percentage of 0.541; ETH with a bid of 2510.07 and an ask of 2510.6, age of 60, ok of 1, depth USD of 83.3/84.0, and hurdle percentage of 0.523; SOL with a bid of 101.5 and an ask of 101.536, age of 157, ok of 1, depth USD of 95.6/95.5, and hurdle percentage of 0.538; USDC with a bid of 0.9995 and an ask of 1.00001, age of 729, ok of 0, depth USD of 9995000.0/10000100.0, and hurdle percentage of 0.553; USDG with a bid of 0.99999 and an ask of 1.00001, age of 181485, ok of 0, depth USD of 9999900.0/10000100.0, and hurdle percentage of 0.504; XRP with a bid of 1.359 and an ask of 1.36507, age of 574, ok of 0, depth USD of 5687.8/5691.0, and hurdle percentage of 0.951; UNI with a bid of 6.20857 and an ask of 6.22119, age of 42, ok of 1, depth USD of 4379.5/4345.3, and hurdle percentage of 0.706; LTC with a bid of 53.53 and an ask of 53.88, age of 139, ok of 1, depth USD of 3630.4/3678.4, and hurdle percentage of 1.159; HYPE with a bid of 78.42 and an ask of 78.8285, age of 177, ok of 1, depth USD of 60868.0/61375.9, and hurdle percentage of 1.025; and LINK with a bid of 11.5016 and an ask of 11.5225, age of 40, ok of 1, depth USD of 13225.7/13232.8, and hurdle percentage of 0.685. There are 7 out of 10 fresh quotes. The recipient BTC is 598.50057179, with a mempool net of 0.00014715 and a transaction number of 315. The reserve BTC is 3601.47207156, with a mempool net of 0.0 and a transaction number of 597. The recent page is 57, controlled is 0, and not full history is 1. The tip is 4053748, with an age in seconds of 97 and a timestamp of 1789193710. There is an error message: {'error': 'ConnectTimeout'}. The operator notes are 3, and the operator hash is 1e913157cc811e629b1b86d4db894412f924f07ea0928c7aa1a3e183681de0ca. A message claims: To those responsible for the theft of bitcoin from the Liquid Network: Blockstream will not pay a ransom. The fund has 7 out of 7 panels attempted, with 0 eligible, and balances are not sales or recovery. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-snapshots ; https://blockstream.info/liquid/api/blocks ; https://x.com/Blockstream

A data scan found the following information: the last run was on 2026-09-12T03:01:08.900Z and the next run is on 2026-09-13T03:01:08.900Z, with 22 remaining. This is for research only, looking at eligible assets that are not live, specifically 36 out of 36 incomplete 7-day USDG signals for Ethereum, or ETH, which is a type of cryptocurrency. The data comes from https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars, which shows 7 completed days in UTC time, and includes stablecoins, which are a type of cryptocurrency that is designed to be stable. The data shows the following: USDC had a 7-day volume of $10,367,949, with 7 out of 7 days completed, a close of 0.999755, and a prior 20-day average of 1.000005, with a signal of 0 and the last day not being zero. USDG had a 7-day volume of $1,899,981, with 2 out of 7 days completed, a close of 1, and no prior 20-day average, with a signal of 0 and the last day not being zero. BTC had a 7-day volume of $677,156, with 7 out of 7 days completed, a close of 77,212.832, and a prior 20-day average of 81,269.4915, with a signal of 0 and the last day not being zero. ETH had a 7-day volume of $459,605, with 7 out of 7 days completed, a close of 2,516.066, and a prior 20-day average of 2,515.445, with a signal of 1 and the last day not being zero. LTC had a 7-day volume of $254,429, with 7 out of 7 days completed, a close of 53.27, and a prior 20-day average of 55.20535, with a signal of 0 and the last day not being zero. XRP had a 7-day volume of $199,205, with 7 out of 7 days completed, a close of 1.35664, and a prior 20-day average of 1.51966, with a signal of 0 and the last day not being zero. SOL had a 7-day volume of $192,379, with 7 out of 7 days completed, a close of 102.4335, and a prior 20-day average of 109.15, with a signal of 0 and the last day not being zero. HYPE had a 7-day volume of $150,543, with 7 out of 7 days completed, a close of 79.4395, and a prior 20-day average of 87.96325, with a signal of 0 and the last day not being zero. LINK had a 7-day volume of $146,046, with 7 out of 7 days completed, a close of 11.5477, and a prior 20-day average of 13.2346, with a signal of 0 and the last day not being zero. UNI had a 7-day volume of $107,781, with 7 out of 7 days completed, a close of 6.0076, and a prior 20-day average of 7.294845, with a signal of 0 and the last day not being zero. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars

A news scan found the headline 'FTK R91206 final FTK collector remote receipt verified'. At 06:17:43, a query of list_jobs 236 returned, showing the last run was at 06:16:02.675, with standard output at 06:16:22.656, and an exit code of 0, ending 3 out of 3. The latest FTK information from September 9 includes an 8K filing with the number 0000928054-26000008, and an August 6 10Q filing with the number 0001193125-26337969, as well as FTK IR information from September 9 to September 18 and August 4, with links that have not changed since 04:16. This information supersedes a pending receipt from 06:16 in monitor 323, but it is not proof of other news or paid cash. A replacement, number 243, was accepted, but the last run had a null output at the same check. https://data.sec.gov/submissions/CIK0000928054.json

A local test was conducted at 06:15:55 on June 6, which resulted in an exit with a code of 0. The test involved the stock VIST, which had a closing price of 76.27 on September 11, a prior close of 78.95 on September 11, and a 50-day Simple Moving Average, a calculation used to smooth out price data, of 68.25, with an Average Daily Range, a measure of price volatility, of 2.822, and generated a signal of 0. Other stocks tested included SWKS with a price of 88.35 and a signal of 1, HWM with a price of 229.61 and a signal of 0, and CCJ with a price of 96.68 and a signal of 0. The test also referenced SEC index listings, including VIST on September 8 with filing number 0001193125-26-384346, SWKS on September 11 with filing number 0001104659-26-106992, CCJ on July 31 with filing number 0001193125-26-327250, and ALM on August 17 with filing number 0001493152-26-038655. The test used data from the SEC website, specifically the URL https://data.sec.gov/submissions/CIK{10digitCIK}.json, which contains submission data in JSON format, a type of data format. The test only used metadata, or information about the data, and did not read any new business claims. A replacement request 243 was accepted after a previous request 226 was cancelled, and a remote END is still pending. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars

A news scan found the following data line: a list of one stock data item. The item is for the symbol STNG, which had an adjustment called a split, a type of stock price adjustment. It has 1682 rows of data, starting from 2020-01-02T05:00:00Z and ending at 2026-09-11T04:00:00Z. The data has a unique identifier, or sha256, of 5e9426f0a7e6ae32ccdc6aa71bfbf942ca905ab2dff198bc056cc141a84385c6, and comes from the source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars. The data was downloaded on September 12 at 06:03 UTC, and covers the period from 2020-01-01 to September 11 at 23:40, with a time interval of 1 day, using a method called SIP, and paginating until no token was found. The data includes raw JSON sha snapshots, and asserts that the OHLC, or open, high, low, and close prices, are positive, and that the dates are unique, for the purpose of backtesting names, but does not claim to have 15-minute coverage. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars

A data scan found a list of stock data. The list includes the following stocks: CCJ with 1682 rows of data from 2020-01-02T05:00:00Z to 2026-09-11T04:00:00Z, FTK with 1682 rows of data from 2020-01-02T05:00:00Z to 2026-09-11T04:00:00Z, and FRO with 1682 rows of data from 2020-01-02T05:00:00Z to 2026-09-11T04:00:00Z. The data was downloaded on September 12 at 06:03 UTC. The download started on 2020-01-01 and ended on September 11 at 23:40. The data is in one-day intervals and uses a method called SIP, which is a way of sending data in small pieces, and it stopped when there were no more pieces to send. The data includes snapshots of raw JSON, which is a way of storing data, and it has been checked to make sure it has positive prices and unique dates for the stocks that were tested. The data does not claim to have 15-minute coverage. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars

A data scan found a list of stock data. The list includes three stocks: HWM, LPG, and SWKS. For HWM, the data covers 1620 rows from April 1, 2020, to September 11, 2026, with a unique identifier, or sha256, of c5c3e5876019817f856e38280f2a9dc7ceaeff63fbd516fc82c5ee92e0a38f4c, and is sourced from https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars. For LPG, the data covers 1682 rows from January 2, 2020, to September 11, 2026, with a sha256 of 3614a6084827ba720804a47a09bec195b6fd4f4ccb1219651b6b8e1ca4780e91, and is sourced from the same website. For SWKS, the data also covers 1682 rows from January 2, 2020, to September 11, 2026, with a sha256 of 6b846b0826873cb4f59621a55365a62fc9adfadfa3d32ee12ad9f3980ae36a7f, and is sourced from the same website. The data was downloaded on September 12 at 06:03 UTC, and covers the period from January 1, 2020, to September 11, 2026, with a one-day interval, using a method called SIP, and paginating until no token was found. The data includes raw JSON sha snapshots, and asserts that the stock prices are positive and the dates are unique for backtested names, with no claim of 15-minute coverage. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars

A news scan found the following data: a list of stock data, including the symbol, adjustment, number of rows, first and last date, and source. The list includes FRO with 1682 rows from 2020-01-02 to 2026-09-11, STNG with 1682 rows from 2020-01-02 to 2026-09-11, and SPY with 1682 rows from 2020-01-02 to 2026-09-11. The data was downloaded on September 12 at 06:03 UTC, with a start date of 2020-01-01 and an end date of September 11 at 23:40. The data is in JSON format, with a unique identifier called a sha256, which is a type of digital fingerprint. The data includes opening, high, low, and closing prices, referred to as OHLC, and unique dates for backtested names, but does not claim to have 15-minute coverage. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars

A news scan found the headline about SOL/USD C91206 hourly comparator fractional-return halfKelly. The system uses a formula called halfKelly, which is a way to size trades, to make decisions about buying and selling SOL, a type of cryptocurrency. The system looks at the hourly changes in SOL/USD, which is the price of SOL in US dollars, over 8 periods. It found that the probability of winning is 0.5, or 50%, the average win is 9.7409270625%, and the average loss is 6.61463454%. The system calculated a value called raw_halfKelly_fraction, which is 1.2130074682550123. This value helps the system decide how much to invest. The system also looked at something called capped_notional, which is the maximum amount of money that can be invested, and found it to be 153.18. There is also a quarter_fund_ceiling, which is 38.295, and an actual_size, which is 0. The system used something called a two-point mean payoff approximation, which is a simple way to estimate the average outcome of a trade, but this method does not take into account all possible risks. The system also noted that it cannot use the Kelly formula, which is a way to optimize trade size, in a situation where the manager is pulling back, or reducing, the amount of money invested. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars

A news scan found the following data line: SOL/USD C91206 daily comparator fractional-return halfKelly. The data shows the symbol is SOL, the time frame is daily, and the number of observations is 7. The win probability is 0.42857142857142855, the mean win percentage is 7.507977063333334, and the mean loss percentage is 7.471832152499999. The raw half Kelly fraction, which is a measure of optimal bet size, is -0.9375623540945859. The capped notional, or maximum amount invested, is 0, and the quarter fund ceiling, or maximum amount allocated to this investment, is 38.295. The actual size of the investment is 0. This data is based on a training model that uses closed trade fractions from a frozen 20 high and 10 low comparator, with fees of 25 basis points and a slip of 10 basis points. The formula used to calculate the fraction is f = 0.5 * (p / mean loss - (1 - p) / mean win). The cap is set at a minimum of 153.18 fund, 212.7475 venue, and a maximum of 0 times 850.99. The quarter fund ceiling of 38.295 is for illustration purposes only and is not an order. The model uses a two-point mean payoff approximation, which may not be accurate due to the small sample size and unbounded tail risk, and does not include an uncertainty adjustment. Additionally, the Kelly criterion, which is a formula for bet size, cannot be transferred to a managed pullback. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars

A news scan found the data line: ETH/USD C91206 hourly comparator fractional-return halfKelly. The data shows the following information: the symbol is ETH, the time frame is hourly, and the number of observations is 14. The win probability is 0.42857142857142855, the mean win percentage is 22.08310485333333, and the mean loss percentage is 11.770742695. The raw half Kelly fraction is 0.526680497585162. The capped notional is 153.18, and the quarter fund ceiling is 38.295. The actual size is 0. This data is from a training closed trade fractions model using a frozen 20 high and 10 low comparator, with fees of 25 basis points and a slip of 10 basis points. The formula used is f equals 0.5 times the probability divided by the mean loss, minus 1 minus the probability, divided by the mean win. The cap is set to the minimum of 153.18 of the fund, 212.7475 of the venue, and the maximum of 0 times 850.99. The quarter fund ceiling of 38.295 is for illustration purposes only and is not an order. The model uses a two-point mean payoff approximation, with a small number of observations, unbounded tail risk, and no uncertainty adjustment, which means it cannot transfer the Kelly criterion to a managed pullback. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars

A news scan found the following data: the symbol is ETH, the time frame is daily, and the number of observations is 12. The win probability is 0.4166666666666667, the mean win percentage is 14.580065347999998, and the mean loss percentage is 12.532606384285714. The raw half Kelly fraction is -0.3381178214971712. The capped notional is 0, the quarter fund ceiling is 38.295, and the actual size is 0. This data is from a training closed trade fractions model using a frozen 20 high and 10 low comparator, with fees of 25 basis points and a slip of 10 basis points. The formula used is f equals 0.5 times the probability divided by the mean loss, minus 1 minus the probability, divided by the mean win. The cap is set at the minimum of 153.18 times the fund, 212.7475 times the venue, and the maximum of 0 times 850.99. The quarter fund ceiling of 38.295 is for illustration purposes only and is not an order. The model uses a two-point mean payoff approximation, with a small number of observations, unbounded tail risk, and no uncertainty adjustment, which means it cannot be used to transfer the Kelly criterion to a managed pullback. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars

A news scan found the headline about a BTC/USD C91206 hourly comparator fractional-return halfKelly. The system uses a formula called the Kelly criterion, which is a way to decide how much to bet. The system looked at 13 hourly periods of the price of Bitcoin, or BTC, and found that the probability of winning, or making money, was 0.3076923076923077, or about 30.8 percent. The average amount of money made when the system won was 25.656397485 percent, and the average amount of money lost when the system lost was 6.437934371111111 percent. The system calculated a number called the raw half Kelly fraction, which was 1.0404907651405366. The system also looked at something called the capped notional, which was 153.18, and the quarter fund ceiling, which was 38.295. The actual size of the trade was 0. The system used a formula that included fees of 25 basis points, or 0.25 percent, and slip of 10 basis points, or 0.1 percent. The formula was f equals 0.5 times the probability of winning divided by the average loss, minus 1 minus the probability of winning, divided by the average win. The system also looked at a two-point mean payoff approximation, which is a way to estimate the average amount of money that will be made. The system noted that it was using a small number of data points, which is called small N, and that there was a risk of very large losses, which is called unbounded tail risk. The system also noted that it could not adjust for uncertainty, and that it could not use the Kelly criterion to manage pullbacks, which are times when the price of Bitcoin goes down. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars

A news scan found the headline about a BTC/USD daily comparator with a fractional return and half Kelly calculation. The system uses a formula, where f equals 0.5 times the probability of a win divided by the mean loss percentage, minus 1 minus the probability of a win, divided by the mean win percentage. The mean win percentage is 31.267138916666664 percent and the mean loss percentage is 6.995176647142857 percent. The win probability is 0.3. The raw half Kelly fraction is 1.0249486196263706. The capped notional is 153.18 and the quarter fund ceiling is 38.295. The actual size is 0. This is based on a two-point mean payoff approximation with a small number of data points, unbounded tail risk, and no uncertainty adjustment. The system cannot transfer the Kelly calculation to a managed pullback. The training closed trade fractions are from a frozen 20 high and 10 low comparator, with fees of 25 basis points and a slip of 10 basis points. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars

A news scan found the data line: {"s":"SOL","period":"holdout","n":252,"correlation":0.8789011688485111,"beta":1.2056070462218178,"daily_intercept_pct":0.00007645548671838688,"beta_block_ci":[1.1179515608264896,1.328143983580368],"intercept_block_ci_pct":["-0.21705187849695462,0.19717917432477083"],"vol_ann_pct":63.79144539093395}. This is a result of a statistical analysis, specifically a regression, which is a way to understand how two things are related. In this case, the relationship between SOL and USD is being examined, using a method called ordinary least squares, or OLS, which is a way to find the best fit line between two sets of data, and also considering the return of BTC, which is a type of cryptocurrency. The analysis used a training period from 2024 to 2025 and a holdout period from 2026 through September 11, and it used a technique called bootstrap, which is a way to test the strength of the relationship, with a seed of 912064, and a block size of 10 observations. The analysis dropped any pairs of dates that were missing and allowed blocks to occasionally span missing calendar intervals. The result shows a correlation of 0.8789011688485111 and a beta of 1.2056070462218178, which are measures of how closely the two things are related, and how much one changes when the other changes. The daily intercept percentage is 0.00007645548671838688, and the beta block confidence interval is between 1.1179515608264896 and 1.328143983580368, and the intercept block confidence interval percentage is between -0.21705187849695462 and 0.19717917432477083. The annualized volatility percentage is 63.79144539093395. This association is not a forecast, and it is based on a different history of SOL. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars

A news scan found the data line: {"s":"ETH","period":"holdout","n":252,"correlation":0.9110852317288572,"beta":1.2521373444368602,"daily_intercept_pct":0.01198513418787977,"beta_block_ci":[1.1600940411479406,1.380073197559559],"intercept_block_ci_pct":["-0.12565340196189015,0.1090941625505178"],"vol_ann_pct":63.91306844861512}. This is a data output showing the results of a statistical analysis of ETH/USD, which is a cryptocurrency pair, with a holdout period, meaning a set of data held back from training, of 252 observations, a correlation of 0.9110852317288572, and a beta of 1.2521373444368602, which measures the volatility of the asset. The daily intercept percentage is 0.01198513418787977, and the beta block confidence interval is between 1.1600940411479406 and 1.380073197559559. The intercept block confidence interval percentage is between -0.12565340196189015 and 0.1090941625505178, and the annualized volatility percentage is 63.91306844861512. This analysis is based on a training period from 2024 to 2025 and a holdout period through September 11, 2026, using an ordinary least squares regression, which is a statistical method, with a constant and BTC return, where BTC is another cryptocurrency. The analysis used a moving block bootstrap, which is a statistical technique, with a seed of 912064, and dropped pairwise missing dates, with blocks occasionally spanning missing calendar intervals. The association found is not a forecast, and the analysis notes that the history of SOL, another cryptocurrency, is different. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars