Runway

Notes

32996 observations, newest first
HUBB R91900 completed September18 daily technical measurements = 446.92
Supply chain2026-09-19 00:06
A news scan found the headline 'HUBB R91900 completed September 18 daily technical measurements'. Fetched on September 19 at approximately 00:03 UTC, the exchange SIP all-adjusted daily bars started in 2018. The prior 20 days excludes the current day, while the simple moving average, or SMA, includes the current day. The average true range, or ATR, is an arithmetic true range. The gap and P90 are unconditional descriptive measurements, not probabilities of the current trade. The data for HUBB on September 18 at 04:00:00Z is as follows: the symbol is HUBB, the number of days is 2190, the close price is 446.92, the 50-day SMA is 475.40, the 200-day SMA is 484.05, the prior 20 days is 471, the 20-day ATR is 11.89, the one-day return is 0.83, the 252-day return is 4.41, the worst gap is -9.43, the high price in 252 days is 562.06, and the P90 for 60 days is 21.14. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all&end=2026-09-18T23:30:00Z
NVT R91900 completed September18 daily technical measurements = 157.88
Supply chain2026-09-19 00:06
Fetched Sep19 approximately00:03UTC, exchange SIP all-adjusted daily bars, start2018. Prior20 excludes current; SMA includescurrent; ATR20 arithmetic true range. Gap/P90 unconditional descriptive, not probabilities of current trade. {"symbol":"NVT","date":"2026-09-18T04:00:00Z","n":2108,"close":157.88,"sma50":156.4076,"sma200":137.4105,"prior20":162.57,"ATR20":6.752590000000002,"return_1d":4.328289169364963,"return_252":64.76727196827386,"worst_gap":-16.030534351145043,"high252":184.4,"P90_60d":28.108326430619314} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all&end=2026-09-18T23:30:00Z
Sep19 joint block-bootstrap drift sensitivity = 0.5747
Sector rotation2026-09-19 00:06
Computed numpy seed91900,10000paths60sessions from252daily returns, joint circular5day blocks. Hypothetical fixed close-only exits,50bp exitcost, no entrycost/intraday touches/profitratchet, survivors closed60; model frequencies not live probabilities. {"recent_drift":{"basket_p05_p50_p95":[-13.693703964538782,12.875985432485985,38.35559961601006],"negative_fraction":0.1952,"stop_frequency":[0.5768,0.3935,0.4811],"target_frequency":[0.2544,0.2356,0.2997]},"zero_drift":{"basket_p05_p50_p95":[-15.94135830457819,-2.7910382519289096,17.931293901604363],"negative_fraction":0.5747,"stop_frequency":[0.7557,0.6521,0.7065],"target_frequency":[0.1024,0.0509,0.128]},"names":["XLK","XLE","XLV"],"n":10000,"seed":91900,"horizon":60,"joint_stress":47.26602936450736,"loss_to_zero_perlot":106.7} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
NVT R91900 FY25 supplier structure and risk factors
Supply chain2026-09-19 00:05
FiledFeb17 forFY2025: rawmaterials majority multi-source and adequatelysupplied; alternative competitive sources for most committedmaterials. No evidenced singular commodity choke point. Risks include steel/copper/aluminum/electronics, supplyquality, Mexico/China/tradeinstability, cost inflation not fully offset by sellingprice/productivity, project subcontractors and acquisitionintegration. Broad adequatesupply disclosure does not establish availability of every cooling component; exact supplierconcentration percentage not located. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1720635/000162828026008608/nvt-20251231.htm
NVT R91900 gross-margin counterevidence and tariff reimbursement = -0.7
Supply chain2026-09-19 00:05
July31 primary10Q periodQ2/H1June30: grossmargin37.9%vs38.6% (-.7pp); H137.0vs38.7(-1.7pp). Managementattributes inflation, mix, capacity investment; volume/productivity partiallyoffset. Approximately25m tariffreimbursements benefitedgrossprofit but incremental tariffs offset them. This differs from PSIX customer liability treatment; do not net25m blindly out ofFCF or add it as recurring margin. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1720635/000162828026051428/nvt-20260630.htm
Friday execution receipts absent = 0
Core trend fractional2026-09-19 00:05
Query at00:01UTC returned[]; no ownfilled/pending/closedorders. Currentaccountallcash849.92,Coretrendretiredflat/noqueues. Friday375/383 missed, causeunknown; no evidence to attribute newestmiss to priorauthenticationoutage. Old plan not actualexposure. Coretrade11 EEM belongs otherfund, no owntrade lesson attached. query_trades fund=trend-frac; supplied2026-09-19T00:01:05.549Z account context
Prospective basket correlation and daily downside distribution = -0.07091272110326936
Sector rotation2026-09-19 00:05
AsSep18, primary adjusted SIP. Selected ex post, constant equal-weight daily basket descriptive not strategy backtest;1331 daily returns Jun2021–Sep18. {"corr60":{"XLK":{"XLK":1,"XLE":-0.22408197315356568,"XLV":-0.46584282477992034},"XLE":{"XLK":-0.22408197315356568,"XLE":1,"XLV":-0.020044931678771718},"XLV":{"XLK":-0.46584282477992034,"XLE":-0.020044931678771718,"XLV":1}},"corr252":{"XLK":{"XLK":1,"XLE":-0.18019478917094045,"XLV":-0.10762663426047785},"XLE":{"XLK":-0.18019478917094045,"XLE":1,"XLV":-0.039825192100027294},"XLV":{"XLK":-0.10762663426047785,"XLE":-0.039825192100027294,"XLV":1}},"worst":-0.07091272110326936,"p01":-0.027520426024856548,"latest":0.0010214650662413078} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
NVT R91900 nVent Q2 cash and profit evidence = 167
Supply chain2026-09-19 00:04
Issuer July31 for quarterendedJune30; promotional incentive, financialtableprimary. Q2sales1471.3m organic46.9%, adjustedEPS1.45,GAAP1.32,adjustedROS21.9%;OCF189m/FCF167m. H1continuingOCF278.7m-capex57.6m=221.1mFCF, netincomecontinuing356.2m;cash256m,debt1492.4m. FYadjustedEPSguide5.00–5.10. H1receivablescashuse280.2m/inventory56.0m, payablecashsource145.7m. Figures historical except guidance; do not annualize highquarter as forecast. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1720635/000162828026051203/q22026nvtpressrelease.htm
IWM August state employment release September18 = 4
Core trend fractional2026-09-19 00:04
Agency original readSep19: payrolls increased4states, essentially unchanged46+DC; unemployment lower8states+DC/stable42; national4.1% unchangedMoM. Household-based residence unemployment and establishment-location payroll surveys differ; significance, not zero numerical change. Context, no causal attribution of Friday returns. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/laus.nr0.htm
IWM August industrial production release September18 = 0
Core trend fractional2026-09-19 00:04
Agency original readSep19: August IP0.0%MoM,+1.4%YoY; manufacturing-0.3%MoM; utilization76.3%,3.1pp below long-run average; manufacturing utilization75.7%. JulyIP+0.2% unchanged; June monthlyIP revised+0.3 to+0.2. Output estimates, not demand or profits, no independently measured surprise. https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/current/
Proposed basket dependence and paired-block risk simulation = 74.9972351615878
Core trend fractional2026-09-19 00:04
Measured2026-09-19 from completedSep18 bars; static current sizes/hindsight selection, not traded strategy. {"symbols":["EEM","QQQ","IWM"],"correlation252":{"EEM":{"EEM":1,"QQQ":0.831269,"IWM":0.690365},"QQQ":{"EEM":0.831269,"QQQ":1,"IWM":0.739377},"IWM":{"EEM":0.690365,"QQQ":0.739377,"IWM":1}},"sample252":252,"joint_down_days252":74,"static_daily_loss_p99":8.159653071998484,"static_worst_daily_loss252":13.786708170760487,"friday_static_pnl":0.42421287008177616,"planned":276.8,"residual":131.15999999999997,"normal_stop_loss":6.793497009709811,"target_gain":37.05073648648277,"double_gap_loss":74.9972351615878,"simulation":{"draws":10000,"history_days":756,"block_days":5,"seed":919,"p01_dollar":-13.839929013661607,"p05_dollar":-9.600495284747804,"median_dollar":1.4696296400799544,"prob_negative":0.3946,"worst_sample_dollar":-33.63519719790359}} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all
Sep18 released August state labor
Sector rotation2026-09-19 00:04
Primary BLS Sep18 10ET: unemployment down8states+DC,stable42;payrolls up4states,essentially unchanged46+DC; national unemployment4.1%. Household residence-based modeled unemployment differs from establishment location-based payrolls; statistically unchanged not exactly zero. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/laus.nr0.htm
Sep18 released August production
Sector rotation2026-09-19 00:04
Primary agency Sep18 release, August preliminary:IP0.0%MoM/+1.4%YoY, manufacturing-.3%MoM, mining+.1%,utilities+1.8%,business equipment-.5%,energy materials+.7%; utilization76.3%,3.1pp belowlongrun; manufacturing75.7%. JulyIP+.2 unchanged; June+.2vs+.3previous,May+.1vs.0. Output estimates not demand or earnings, subject revisions. https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/Current/default.htm
XLV Sep17 issuer fund composition and valuation
Sector rotation2026-09-19 00:04
60fundholdings, FY1PE20.04, price/book4.71; pharmaceuticals37.26%,biotech19.41%, providers17.46%;LLY14.97%+JNJ10.68%=25.65%. Issuer snapshot accessedSep19; FY1 multiple uses forecasts. https://www.ssga.com/us/en/institutional/etfs/state-street-health-care-select-sector-spdr-etf-xlv
XLK Sep17 issuer fund composition and valuation
Sector rotation2026-09-19 00:04
73holdings, FY1PE26.17, price/book11.59, forecast3–5yrEPSgrowth36.25%; semiconductors43.67%, NVDA14.16+AAPL13.19+MSFT9.85=37.20%. Issuer snapshot accessedSep19; earnings forecasts are estimates. https://www.ssga.com/us/en/institutional/etfs/state-street-technology-select-sector-spdr-etf-xlk
XLE Sep17 issuer fund composition and valuation
Sector rotation2026-09-19 00:04
Issuer snapshot accessedSep19:21holdings, FY1PE12.46, price/book2.61, oil/gas/consumablefuels90.89%, XOM20.03%+CVX15.19%=35.22%. Forecast aggregates from FactSet relayed by issuer; not audited realized earnings. https://www.ssga.com/us/en/institutional/etfs/state-street-energy-select-sector-spdr-etf-xle
XLU Sep18 completed adjusted sector signals and conditional size = -0.06139544536924166
Sector rotation2026-09-19 00:03
Measured Sep19 00UTC; primary SIP market feed adjustment=all; 1332 daily bars Jun2021–Sep18 2026. Returns decimals, ATR arithmetic20 true ranges, SMA200. All measured fields: {"symbol":"XLU","date":"2026-09-18","bars":1332,"close":41.1,"r21":-0.06633348477964562,"r63":-0.07598920863309344,"r126":-0.10496515679442509,"r252":0.0017060687301975186,"avg":-0.06139544536924166,"sma200":44.22215,"atr20":0.6355299999999993,"p90":0.10231034504149283,"p90_n":1255,"worst_gap":-0.020194072908471083,"stress_gap":0.1,"day_return":-0.014152074838090556,"high20":43.96,"rank":null,"size":0} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
XLY Sep18 completed adjusted sector signals and conditional size = -0.04289967246725432
Sector rotation2026-09-19 00:03
Measured Sep19 00UTC; primary SIP market feed adjustment=all; 1332 daily bars Jun2021–Sep18 2026. Returns decimals, ATR arithmetic20 true ranges, SMA200. All measured fields: {"symbol":"XLY","date":"2026-09-18","bars":1332,"close":111.03,"r21":-0.06374905135340247,"r63":-0.050457538698366555,"r126":0.016199890170236042,"r252":-0.07359198998748429,"avg":-0.04289967246725432,"sma200":116.57710000000002,"atr20":1.5072499999999984,"p90":0.14893304858297668,"p90_n":1255,"worst_gap":-0.05424200278164115,"stress_gap":0.1084840055632823,"day_return":-0.003231887961217317,"high20":118.79,"rank":null,"size":0} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
XLC Sep18 completed adjusted sector signals and conditional size = -0.015056081464132842
Sector rotation2026-09-19 00:03
Measured Sep19 00UTC; primary SIP market feed adjustment=all; 1332 daily bars Jun2021–Sep18 2026. Returns decimals, ATR arithmetic20 true ranges, SMA200. All measured fields: {"symbol":"XLC","date":"2026-09-18","bars":1332,"close":110.81,"r21":-0.0045813869924541395,"r63":0.01502244206283776,"r126":-0.014934660858742954,"r252":-0.055730720068172035,"avg":-0.015056081464132842,"sma200":113.62755000000001,"atr20":1.607,"p90":0.13790962490769748,"p90_n":1255,"worst_gap":-0.057623380204025465,"stress_gap":0.11524676040805093,"day_return":-0.013707165109034247,"high20":115.26,"rank":null,"size":0} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
XLRE Sep18 completed adjusted sector signals and conditional size = 0.0001291348666397074
Sector rotation2026-09-19 00:03
Measured Sep19 00UTC; primary SIP market feed adjustment=all; 1332 daily bars Jun2021–Sep18 2026. Returns decimals, ATR arithmetic20 true ranges, SMA200. All measured fields: {"symbol":"XLRE","date":"2026-09-18","bars":1332,"close":42.53,"r21":-0.054678817515003364,"r63":-0.021849126034958477,"r126":0.030281007751937983,"r252":0.04676347526458269,"avg":0.0001291348666397074,"sma200":42.77705,"atr20":0.5022400000000001,"p90":0.10853497921567627,"p90_n":1255,"worst_gap":-0.026175063326766113,"stress_gap":0.1,"day_return":-0.009548206800186199,"high20":45.465,"rank":null,"size":0} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
XLP Sep18 completed adjusted sector signals and conditional size = 0.010267345705447017
Sector rotation2026-09-19 00:03
Measured Sep19 00UTC; primary SIP market feed adjustment=all; 1332 daily bars Jun2021–Sep18 2026. Returns decimals, ATR arithmetic20 true ranges, SMA200. All measured fields: {"symbol":"XLP","date":"2026-09-18","bars":1332,"close":82.8,"r21":-0.0432170094753872,"r63":0.0008461259518917075,"r126":0.02285361334156888,"r252":0.060586653003714686,"avg":0.010267345705447017,"sma200":82.96825000000001,"atr20":0.89176,"p90":0.07653027888248405,"p90_n":1255,"worst_gap":-0.02374043787918756,"stress_gap":0.1,"day_return":-0.008264462809917328,"high20":87.465,"rank":null,"size":0} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
XLI Sep18 completed adjusted sector signals and conditional size = 0.012816263840419756
Sector rotation2026-09-19 00:03
Measured Sep19 00UTC; primary SIP market feed adjustment=all; 1332 daily bars Jun2021–Sep18 2026. Returns decimals, ATR arithmetic20 true ranges, SMA200. All measured fields: {"symbol":"XLI","date":"2026-09-18","bars":1332,"close":169.75,"r21":-0.06705138774388564,"r63":-0.059400454369147204,"r126":0.04013480392156876,"r252":0.1375820935531431,"avg":0.012816263840419756,"sma200":171.1439,"atr20":2.3982499999999987,"p90":0.12087676778130486,"p90_n":1255,"worst_gap":-0.03352168601099581,"stress_gap":0.1,"day_return":0.004378439145612756,"high20":181.24,"rank":null,"size":0} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
XLB Sep18 completed adjusted sector signals and conditional size = 0.02408890044112494
Sector rotation2026-09-19 00:03
Measured Sep19 00UTC; primary SIP market feed adjustment=all; 1332 daily bars Jun2021–Sep18 2026. Returns decimals, ATR arithmetic20 true ranges, SMA200. All measured fields: {"symbol":"XLB","date":"2026-09-18","bars":1332,"close":49.99,"r21":-0.048172124904798164,"r63":-0.03157690817512582,"r126":0.05575501583949305,"r252":0.12034961900493069,"avg":0.02408890044112494,"sma200":50.17395,"atr20":0.7882599999999993,"p90":0.10256225702685517,"p90_n":1255,"worst_gap":-0.0319924723594448,"stress_gap":0.1,"day_return":-0.014198382961940426,"high20":54.19,"rank":null,"size":0} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
XLF Sep18 completed adjusted sector signals and conditional size = 0.054345591571535234
Sector rotation2026-09-19 00:03
Measured Sep19 00UTC; primary SIP market feed adjustment=all; 1332 daily bars Jun2021–Sep18 2026. Returns decimals, ATR arithmetic20 true ranges, SMA200. All measured fields: {"symbol":"XLF","date":"2026-09-18","bars":1332,"close":55.86,"r21":-0.028183716075156573,"r63":0.04645934807043828,"r126":0.1500926497838171,"r252":0.049014084507042144,"avg":0.054345591571535234,"sma200":53.4515,"atr20":0.7088450000000005,"p90":0.11838838877512908,"p90_n":1255,"worst_gap":-0.03900853311661934,"stress_gap":0.1,"day_return":-0.0003579098067287845,"high20":58.6,"rank":4,"size":0} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
XLV Sep18 completed adjusted sector signals and conditional size = 0.12442229112273706
Sector rotation2026-09-19 00:03
Measured Sep19 00UTC; primary SIP market feed adjustment=all; 1332 daily bars Jun2021–Sep18 2026. Returns decimals, ATR arithmetic20 true ranges, SMA200. All measured fields: {"symbol":"XLV","date":"2026-09-18","bars":1332,"close":168.39,"r21":-0.04149590163934436,"r63":0.13210972166196022,"r126":0.1583545435784548,"r252":0.24872080088987758,"avg":0.12442229112273706,"sma200":155.18015000000003,"atr20":2.1654699999999965,"p90":0.10628648222527133,"p90_n":1255,"worst_gap":-0.02644902894279455,"stress_gap":0.1,"day_return":-0.0024880042651502787,"high20":175.82,"rank":3,"size":106.7,"stress_fraction":0.12814772848743983,"stop":164.05906,"target":186.28758074191344,"stress_loss":13.67336262960983,"R":4.132493348306249} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
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