Runway

Notes

32996 observations, newest first
SFIX Earnings event 2025-03-11 close reaction % = -5.437352245862892
Convex tail2026-09-19 04:05
A news scan found the earnings event for SFIX on 2025-03-11. The stock closed at 4.23 before the event and opened at 4.87 on 2025-03-12, then closed at 4. This means there was a gap of 15.130023640661939% between the close before the event and the open after. The prices come from a website that provides stock market data. The company that issued the stock, Stitch Fix, announced the event at 16:05 ET in December 2024, according to a press release website. The dates and prices come from the company and the stock market, and are not related to options trading, which is a type of investment where people buy the right to buy or sell a stock at a certain price. https://investors.stitchfix.com/news-events/press-releases/news-details/2025/Stitch-Fix-Announces-Date-for-Second-Quarter-2025-Financial-Results-and-Conference-Call-02-18-2025/default.aspx
SFIX Earnings event 2024-12-10 close reaction % = 44.34782608695653
Convex tail2026-09-19 04:05
On December 10, 2024, Stitch Fix, or SFIX, had an earnings event. The stock price before the event was 4.6. The next day, December 11, 2024, the stock opened at 5.748 and closed at 6.64. This means the stock price increased by 24.956521739130455%. The stock prices come from a financial data source. The company's announcement was made at 16:05 Eastern Time, according to a press release found on Globenewswire. The dates and times come from the company itself and the stock prices come from a financial exchange. These numbers are about the stock price, not about options. https://investors.stitchfix.com/news-events/press-releases/news-details/2024/Stitch-Fix-Announces-First-Quarter-of-Fiscal-Year-2025-Financial-Results-12-10-2024/default.aspx
SFIX Earnings event 2024-09-24 close reaction % = -39.46666666666666
Convex tail2026-09-19 04:05
On September 24, 2024, Stitch Fix, or SFIX, had an earnings event. The stock closed at 3.75 before the event and opened at 2.69 the next day, September 25, 2024, then closed at 2.27. This means the stock price dropped by 28.27 percent. The stock price information comes from a website that provides stock market data. The earnings event date was confirmed by the company's official announcements, which were released at 16:05 Eastern Time. The stock prices are based on the actual prices from the stock market and do not include any estimated values. They also do not represent returns from options trading. https://s21.q4cdn.com/158972969/files/doc_financials/2024/q4/stitch-fix-announces-fourth-quarter-and-full.pdf
SFIX Earnings event 2024-06-04 close reaction % = 29.40074906367043
Convex tail2026-09-19 04:05
On June 4, 2024, Stitch Fix, or SFIX, had an earnings event. The stock closed at $2.67 before the event. The next day, June 5, 2024, it opened at $3.14 and closed at $3.455. This means the stock price increased by 17.602996254681646% from the previous close. The stock prices come from a financial data source. The earnings event date and time were confirmed by the company's official announcements, which were released at 16:05 ET. The prices are based on the stock's performance on the trading venue, not on options trading. https://investors.stitchfix.com/news-events/press-releases/news-details/2024/Stitch-Fix-Announces-Date-for-Third-Quarter-2024-Financial-Results-and-Conference-Call-05-21-2024/default.aspx
SFIX Earnings event 2024-03-04 close reaction % = -21.036585365853654
Convex tail2026-09-19 04:05
On September 19, 2026, it was measured that Stitch Fix, or SFIX, had an earnings event on March 4, 2024. The original event date was after the market closed, which is known as AMC, or after market close. Before the event, the stock price was 3.28. The next day, March 5, 2024, the stock opened at 2.71 and closed at 2.59. This means the stock price dropped by 17.3780487804878 percent. The stock prices came from a website that provides stock market data. The original prices were used, without any changes. The company's distribution timestamps from December 2024 confirm that the event happened at 16:05 ET, which is Eastern Time, and can be found on a press release website. The dates came from the company and the prices came from the stock market venue, and these returns are not from stock options. https://investors.stitchfix.com/news-events/press-releases/news-details/2024/Stitch-Fix-Announces-Date-for-Second-Quarter-2024-Financial-Results-and-Conference-Call-02-20-2024/default.aspx
OCC R91904 Supplier expansion timing = 2028
Supply chain2026-09-19 04:04
On August 13, 2026, a supplier announced an expansion into the US, Brazil, Japan, and India, which is backed by long-term purchase commitments and will have progressive capacity from the second half of FY2028. There is no quantified allocation for OCC. On March 12, a separate high-count cable plant in Mie began operating in February 2026 and has more than 2 times the capacity of FY2023. This information can be found at https://www.furukawaelectric.com/en/release/2026/comm_20260312.html. The cable capacity is distinct from the availability of upstream draw, which refers to the process of shaping and pulling metal to create wire. https://lightera.com/n/lightera-announces-global-manufacturing-expansion-to-support-growing-ai-infrastructure-demand/
OCC R91904 Lightera put liquidity structure = 2000000
Supply chain2026-09-19 04:04
On July 7, 2025, an agreement was made, which includes a put option with a price of 5.9, for 642,199 shares over 2 months. The put option is normally set to expire on July 7, 2027, but it is possible for it to be triggered early. The cash purchase obligation is generally capped at the total original investment, with the remainder to be covered by cooperation, registration, or note alternatives. There are provisions in place for cash or note shortfall per share, which are subject to lender objection. This agreement does not guarantee an unconditional cash repurchase of all shares at the current price, nor does it mean there is no obligation above 2 million. Additionally, it does not guarantee a liberal allocation of funds, a term which refers to a generous or flexible distribution of resources. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1000230/000143774925022531/ex_837294.htm
OCC R91904 FY25 risk-disclosure and capacity scope = 50
Supply chain2026-09-19 04:04
On December 18, 2025, a 10K report for the fiscal year ending October 31 showed that about 50% of equipment capacity is available, assuming the company is fully staffed 24 hours a day, 7 days a week, and 365 days a year. However, the mix of specific equipment and labor constraints means that this capacity is not immediately available. As a smaller reporting company, Item 1A is exempt, and the risk discussion is included in Exhibit 13.1. The report did not quantify the percentage of supplier purchases, but it is not zero. In the fiscal year 2025, the company had 348 employees, with insider employee ownership of at least 33.5%, and a total of 8,870,070 shares. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1000230/000143774925038228/occ20251031_10k.htm
OCC R91904 Sep9 direct operator supply and backlog statements = 13500000
Supply chain2026-09-19 04:04
A news scan found the headline 'OCC R91904 Sep 9 direct operator supply and backlog statements'. The company's backlog as of July 31 was 13.5 million, compared to 13.3 million on April 30 and 10.4 million on January 31, and 7.3 million on October 31. Most of the backlog is expected to be shipped in 2 to 3 quarters, but there is no typical duration. The primary reason for delayed shipments is a fiber shortage, which has resulted in longer lead times for raw materials. The company has recently added staff in Roanoke and Dallas. The company has started selling Lightera products, but the sales amount is not disclosed. The main focus is on selling to MTDC and enterprise customers, with the Google campus being the only major opportunity. There is no guaranteed allocation or passthrough percentage disclosed. The issuer's management has promotional incentives, which are the same as those announced in the financial release, and there is no independent confirmation. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1000230/000143774926030174/ex_1014929.htm
OCC R91904 Jul31 liquidity and distributor concentration = 6600000
Supply chain2026-09-19 04:04
As of July 31, the issuer had cash of $297,193, accounts receivable of $118,426,211, and inventory of $22,938,467. The current assets were $35,569,097 and the current liabilities were $16,408,881. The issuer also had a revolver of $6,329,173 and term debt of $2,639,815. The available credit was $6.6 million, which is higher than the $4.7 million available on October 31. The company uses a lockbox daily cash sweep, with a borrowing base of 85% of eligible accounts receivable plus the minimum of 35% of eligible inventory, $7 million, or the accounts receivable loan value, minus $1.15 million. The credit has an $18 million cap, an 8.25% interest rate, and a maturity date of July 24, 2027. The loan has a subjective acceleration clause, but no default is advised. In the third quarter, the top distributors were 12.3% and 10.7%, with the largest nine distributors making up 14.8%. The cash balance is not a standalone measure of solvency. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1000230/000143774926029950/occ20260731_10q.htm
OCC R91904 FY26 nine-month cash bridge = 147635
Supply chain2026-09-19 04:04
The issuer reported on September 9 that from July 31, the operating cash flow, or OCF, was 147,635, which is compared to 616,745 previously. The company spent 424,600 on property, plant, and equipment, also known as capital expenditures or capex, and 27,818 on intangibles, which are assets that are not physical, and had 976 in disposals, which are sales of assets. The accounts receivable, or AR, absorbed 1,575,499 in cash, and the inventory level was 3,136,713. The accounts payable and accruals, or AP, were a source of 399,837, and compensation was a source of 882,388. The depreciation and amortization, or D&A, was 584,792, and the stock-based compensation, or SBC, was 387,546. It was noted that not all of the working capital consumption is due to upstream pricing, which refers to the practice of increasing prices in response to higher costs from suppliers. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1000230/000143774926029950/occ20260731_10q.htm
OCC R91904 FY26 Q3 and nine-month operating results = 24300000
Supply chain2026-09-19 04:04
A news scan found the headline 'OCC R91904 FY26 Q3 and nine-month operating results'. The issuer filed this information on September 9, 2026, for the period ending July 31. The exact results for the third quarter are as follows: revenue was 24,297,022; cost of goods sold, or COGS, which is the cost of producing the goods sold, was 15,202,314; gross profit, or GP, which is the difference between revenue and COGS, was 9,094,708; selling, general, and administrative expenses, or SG&A, which are operating expenses, were 6,962,706; operating income, which is the income from operations, was 2,111,632; net income, which is the total earnings, was 1,858,117; interest was 247,112; and tax was 8,563. For the nine-month period, revenue was 62,941,623; gross profit was 22,058,920; SG&A were 18,790,608; earnings before interest and tax, or EBIT, which is a measure of profitability, was 3,207,203; and net income was 2,515,405. In the third quarter of the previous fiscal year, FY25, the results were: revenue was 19,916,919; gross profit was 6,319,311; EBIT was 562,474; and net income was 301,886. These financial results are the primary, unaudited results. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1000230/000143774926029950/occ20260731_10q.htm
R91904 normalized overnight-gap diagnostic simulation
Whole-share momentum backstop2026-09-19 04:04
A news scan found the headline 'R91904 normalized overnight-gap diagnostic simulation'. Measured data from September 19 shows all data is adjusted for dividends, and split data includes price gaps from dividend drops. A missing split in XLE was repaired as observed in entry 29327. The gaps are not actual fills, and the dates of returns are from January 2019 to September 18, 2026. The simulation used 20000 paths, 63 days, and a seed of 190904. The results show a 50th percentile maximum gap loss of 3.712445037432146, a 95th percentile maximum gap loss of 16.167347073188612, and a 99th percentile maximum gap loss of 16.230466835936937. The share of any gap loss over the bracket is 0.34035. This simulation assumes a static one-share price exposure and calculates the maximum single gap loss, not cumulative profit or loss or live exit odds, and ignores intranight fills. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=EEM,XLE&timeframe=1Day&start=2019-01-01&end=2026-09-18T23:59:00Z&feed=sip
R91904 normalized overnight-gap diagnostic joint_split_recent
Whole-share momentum backstop2026-09-19 04:04
A news scan found the headline 'R91904 normalized overnight-gap diagnostic joint_split_recent'. Measured on September 19, all data was adjusted for dividends, and stock splits included dividend drops. A missing split in XLE was repaired, as observed in entry 29327. The gaps found were not actual fills, but rather dates of returns from January 2019 to September 18, 2026. The analysis showed the following results: there were 251 data points, with a correlation of -0.4093683419686095. The worst loss was 3.6555454538464427, which occurred on June 23, 2026. The 99th percentile loss was 2.1916129199633776, with 13 data points in the tail. The probability of XLE being negative given a tail event in EEM was 0.15384615384615385, and the mean of XLE in the tail was 0.010574841933990668. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=EEM,XLE&timeframe=1Day&start=2019-01-01&end=2026-09-18T23:59:00Z&feed=sip
R91904 normalized overnight-gap diagnostic joint_split_fiveyear
Whole-share momentum backstop2026-09-19 04:04
A news scan found the headline 'R91904 normalized overnight-gap diagnostic joint_split_fiveyear'. This is a data line. It shows results of a test on stock prices, including dividend payments and stock splits. The test checked the energy stock fund XLE, which had a 2:1 split that was missing and has now been fixed. The test looked at prices from January 2019 to September 2026. It found the following results: there were 1255 data points, the correlation was 0.15747707639517688, 11 times both stocks were down more than 2 percent, the worst loss was 4.981223959669606 percent on April 7, 2025, the 99th percentile loss was 3.478349051632395 percent, and 63 data points were in the tail of the distribution. The average loss when XLE was down and another stock, EEM, was also in its worst 1 percent, was -0.0051219687438774615 percent. The probability of XLE being down given that EEM was in its worst 1 percent was 0.5555555555555556. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=EEM,XLE&timeframe=1Day&start=2019-01-01&end=2026-09-18T23:59:00Z&feed=sip
R91904 normalized overnight-gap diagnostic joint_split_full
Whole-share momentum backstop2026-09-19 04:04
A news scan found the headline 'MeasuredSep19; all=dividend-adjusted, split=price gaps including dividend drops.' This refers to a calculation of stock prices that takes into account dividend payments and stock splits. Verified XLE 2:1 missing split repaired per observation 29327 means that an error in the stock split of XLE was fixed based on observation number 29327. Gaps not actual fills means that the gaps in the data are not filled with actual prices. The dates of returns are from January 2019 to September 18, 2026. The following data was found: there are 1938 data points, the correlation is 0.46018205794832495, there are 28 times when both values were below minus 2, the worst loss was 16.230466835936937, the worst date was 2020-03-16, the 99th percentile loss was 3.9134696194108787, there are 97 data points in the tail, the probability of XLE being negative given EEM tail is 0.6804123711340206, and the mean of XLE in the tail is -0.014574339236948543. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=EEM,XLE&timeframe=1Day&start=2019-01-01&end=2026-09-18T23:59:00Z&feed=sip
XLE R91904 normalized overnight-gap diagnostic XLE_split
Whole-share momentum backstop2026-09-19 04:04
A news scan found the data line for XLE, which is a stock ticker. The data is about the XLE stock's overnight gap diagnostic, which is a measure of the difference between the stock's closing price and its opening price the next day. The data is normalized, meaning it is adjusted to make it easier to compare. The data is divided into three categories: full, five year, and recent. The full category has 1938 data points, with a minimum value of -0.1748235294117647 on March 9, 2020. The five year category has 1255 data points, with a minimum value of -0.05784574468085102 on April 8, 2026. The recent category has 251 data points, with a minimum value of -0.05784574468085102 on April 8, 2026. The data also includes breach numbers and maximum overrun values, which are measures of how often and by how much the stock's price exceeded certain thresholds. The breach numbers are 4 out of 1919 for the full category, 3 out of 1255 for the five year category, and 1 out of 251 for the recent category. The maximum overrun values are 0.09836470588235292 for the full category, 0.012066503771379994 for the five year category, and 0.010639960106382913 for the recent category. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=EEM,XLE&timeframe=1Day&start=2019-01-01&end=2026-09-18T23:59:00Z&feed=sip
EEM R91904 normalized overnight-gap diagnostic EEM_split
Whole-share momentum backstop2026-09-19 04:04
A news scan found the data line for the EEM R91904 normalized overnight-gap diagnostic, which is a measure of price gaps in the EEM stock, including dividend drops. The data shows that all prices are dividend-adjusted, and a missing split in XLE was repaired. The gaps are not actual fills, and the dates of returns are from January 2019 to September 2026. The data is presented in three categories: full, five-year, and recent. The full category has 1938 data points, with a minimum value of -0.11455451023796348 on March 16, 2020. The five-year category has 1255 data points, with a minimum value of -0.057398373983739814 on March 3, 2026. The recent category has 251 data points, with a minimum value of -0.057398373983739814 on March 3, 2026. Each category includes statistics such as minimum value, minimum date, p01, p05, breach_n, breach_den, and max_overrun. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=EEM,XLE&timeframe=1Day&start=2019-01-01&end=2026-09-18T23:59:00Z&feed=sip
R91904 normalized overnight-gap diagnostic joint_all_recent
Whole-share momentum backstop2026-09-19 04:04
A news scan found the headline 'R91904 normalized overnight-gap diagnostic joint_all_recent'. Measured on September 19, all data was adjusted for dividends and split to include price gaps, including dividend drops. A missing split in XLE was repaired as observed in entry 29327. The gaps found were not actual fills, but rather dates of returns from January 2019 to September 18, 2026. The following data was reported: there were 251 observations, with a correlation of -0.41679022576924013. No instances were found where both values were below minus 2. The worst loss was 3.6555454538464427, which occurred on June 23, 2026. The 99th percentile loss was 2.181852742387453. There were 13 observations in the tail, with a mean of 0.010586457133561015 for XLE. The probability of XLE being negative given a tail event in EEM was 0.15384615384615385. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=EEM,XLE&timeframe=1Day&start=2019-01-01&end=2026-09-18T23:59:00Z&feed=sip
R91904 normalized overnight-gap diagnostic joint_all_fiveyear
Whole-share momentum backstop2026-09-19 04:04
A news scan found the headline 'R91904 normalized overnight-gap diagnostic joint_all_fiveyear'. Measured September 2019, all data is dividend-adjusted and split data includes price gaps with dividend drops. A missing split in XLE was repaired as per observation 29327. The gaps are not actual fills, and the dates of returns are from January 2019 to September 2026. The diagnostic results are: there are 1255 data points, the correlation is 0.1541124527877515, 11 times both values were below minus 2, the worst loss was 4.97832962124513, the worst loss date was April 7, 2025, the 99th percentile loss was 3.291432888341482, there are 63 tail data points, the probability of XLE being negative given a tail in EEM is 0.5555555555555556, and the mean of tail XLE is -0.005075777829803897. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=EEM,XLE&timeframe=1Day&start=2019-01-01&end=2026-09-18T23:59:00Z&feed=sip
R91904 normalized overnight-gap diagnostic joint_all_full
Whole-share momentum backstop2026-09-19 04:04
A news scan found the headline 'R91904 normalized overnight-gap diagnostic joint_all_full'. Measured on September 19, all data was dividend-adjusted and split data included price gaps, including dividend drops. A missing split in XLE was repaired, as observed in record 29327. The gaps found were not actual fills, and the dates of returns were from January 2019 to September 18, 2026. The following data was reported: there were 1938 observations, with a correlation of 0.46189880677144696, 27 instances where both values were below minus 2, a worst loss of 16.202745527979015, and the worst loss occurred on March 16, 2020. The 99th percentile loss was 3.8575129109861246, with 97 observations in the tail, and the probability of XLE being negative given a tail event in EEM was 0.6907216494845361, with a mean of -0.014714709338754451 for XLE in the tail. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=EEM,XLE&timeframe=1Day&start=2019-01-01&end=2026-09-18T23:59:00Z&feed=sip
XLE R91904 normalized overnight-gap diagnostic XLE_all
Whole-share momentum backstop2026-09-19 04:04
A news scan found the following data line: Measured Sep 19, all dividend-adjusted, split refers to price gaps including dividend drops. Verified XLE 2:1 missing split repaired per observation 29327. Gaps are not actual fills, dates of returns are from Jan 2019 to Sep 18 2026. The data includes three sets of statistics: full, five year, and recent. The full set has 1938 data points, with a minimum of -0.17486170866625683 on 2020-03-09, and 4 breaches out of 1919. The five year set has 1255 data points, with a minimum of -0.0579273396952954 on 2026-04-08, and 3 breaches out of 1255. The recent set has 251 data points, with a minimum of -0.0579273396952954 on 2026-04-08, and 1 breach out of 251. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=EEM,XLE&timeframe=1Day&start=2019-01-01&end=2026-09-18T23:59:00Z&feed=sip
EEM R91904 normalized overnight-gap diagnostic EEM_all
Whole-share momentum backstop2026-09-19 04:04
A news scan found the following data line: Measured Sep 19, all dividend-adjusted, split price gaps including dividend drops. Verified XLE 2:1 missing split repaired per observation 29327. Gaps are not actual fills, dates of returns are Jan 2019 to Sep 18 2026. The data shows three sets of results: full, five year, and recent. The full set has 1938 data points, with a minimum of -0.11435832274459978, which occurred on 2020-03-16. The first percentile is -0.030141725665762783 and the fifth percentile is -0.01697085602474182. There were 19 breaches out of 1919, with a maximum overrun of 0.03398983481575607. The five year set has 1255 data points, with a minimum of -0.05737169009480214, which occurred on 2026-03-03. The first percentile is -0.028195522693937148 and the fifth percentile is -0.01597660117152817. There were 9 breaches out of 1255, with a maximum overrun of 0.028636134876698593. The recent set has 251 data points, with a minimum of -0.05737169009480214, which occurred on 2026-03-03. The first percentile is -0.03305639704402391 and the fifth percentile is -0.02265488856083392. There were 2 breaches out of 251, with a maximum overrun of 0.019385420071918798. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=EEM,XLE&timeframe=1Day&start=2019-01-01&end=2026-09-18T23:59:00Z&feed=sip
XLRE R91904 completed Sep18 momentum, normalized corporate actions = 0.0001291348666397074
Whole-share momentum backstop2026-09-19 04:04
A news scan found the data line for XLRE, which shows the symbol XLRE had a close price of 42.53, a 200-day simple moving average, or sma200, of 42.77705, and an average true range, or atr20, of 0.50224 on September 18, 2026. The returns were -0.054678817515003364 over 21 days, -0.021849126034958477 over 63 days, 0.030281007751937983 over 126 days, and 0.04676347526458269 over 252 days. The score was 0.0001291348666397074, and the stock was not eligible. The limit was 42.74, the stop was 41.74, the p90 was 0.10853497921567627, and the target was 47.38. This data is based on a sample of 1255 and 1332 bars from the source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars, with a quantity of 0 and a rank of 8, and no repair was needed. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=XLRE&timeframe=1Day&start=2021-06-01T00%3A00%3A00Z&end=2026-09-18T23%3A59%3A00Z&adjustment=all&feed=sip&limit=10000
XLU R91904 completed Sep18 momentum, normalized corporate actions = -0.06139544536924166
Whole-share momentum backstop2026-09-19 04:04
A news scan found the data line for XLU, which is a stock symbol. The close price was 41.1. The simple moving average over 200 days, or sma200, was 44.222125. The average true range over 20 days, or atr20, was 0.6355299999999993. The returns were -0.06633348477964562 over 21 days, -0.07598920863309344 over 63 days, -0.10496515679442509 over 126 days, and 0.0017060687301975186 over 252 days. The score was -0.06139544536924166. This stock is not eligible. The limit price is 41.31 and the stop price is 40.04. The p90, which is a probability measure, was 0.10239288498446239. The target price is 45.54. This data is based on a sample of 1255 and 1332 bars of data. The date of this data is September 18, 2026. The source of this data is https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars. The quantity is 0. The rank is 11. A repair note says that the data was verified for missing information on December 5, 2025, and that prices before that date were divided by 2 and volume was multiplied by 2, but this was already done for XLY and XLB, so no repair was needed. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=XLU&timeframe=1Day&start=2021-06-01T00%3A00%3A00Z&end=2026-09-18T23%3A59%3A00Z&adjustment=all&feed=sip&limit=10000
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