Runway

Notes

32996 observations, newest first
FRO R91908 annual risk and concentration review = 6
Supply chain2026-09-19 08:05
The 2025 20F filing on March 27 reported that the company uses outsourced technical management. A related party, TFG, has a guarantee for bunker fuel that can last up to 6 months, with no amount due at the end of the year. The company has a commitment to Clean Marine scrubbers, with 3.3 million remaining after paying 4.2 million. No supplier concentration percentage has been established. The company has a loss-of-hire insurance with a minimum daily payment of 20,000 for VLCC and Suez, which covers 180 days but has a 60-day deductible, and for LR, which covers 290 days with a 14-day deductible. Operational risk can consume rent despite strong spot prices. The company has ordered nine new VLCCs to be delivered in January 2026, with six from Hengli and three from Dalian, which reduces yard concentration since it is not a single source for the whole fleet. The company has filed directly with the SEC and has had success with its web reader, and will continue to monitor annual risks and subsequent interim risks. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/913290/000162828026021774/fro-20251231.htm
FRO R91908 H1 cash and related supplier exposure = 308.116
Supply chain2026-09-19 08:05
A report from September 16 covered the period up to June 30. It showed that after spending 653.868 million on new builds, vessels, and equipment, the company had 308.116 million in cash. This number does not include 965.880 million from selling vessels. The company had 321.424 million in cash and 2,434.842 million in debt. It also had 222.622889 million shares. The company made 257.4 million in bunker payments and owed 25.9 million, with 23.8 million in associate profit. These payments are not part of the cash received from suppliers. The company owned 73 vessels as of June 30, with 14 on long-term contracts. The company gets paid for voyages when they are completed, rather than monthly or every two weeks, as per the terms of the contract, known as a time charter or TC, which is an agreement to rent a vessel for a set period. The report is based on audited numbers from the company, but the interim numbers are not audited, and the company is not claiming that all forecasted free cash flow, or FCF, will be distributed. https://ml-eu.globenewswire.com/Resource/Download/458804c1-1f6b-4b8b-9ac6-900fc165b0fc
R91908 FDA calendar coverage gap
Whole-share momentum backstop2026-09-19 08:05
A news scan found the headline 'R91908 FDA calendar coverage gap'. A table from ReadSep19 has no entries, which means we cannot determine if there will be decisions or meetings on September 21 or 22. This is because the adcom calendar, which lists advisory committee meetings, is not a complete list of PDUFA, or Prescription Drug User Fee Act, deadlines. https://www.fda.gov/advisory-committees/advisory-committee-calendar
R91908 MillerKnoll Sep22 earnings date
Whole-share momentum backstop2026-09-19 08:05
A news scan found the headline about the Issuer's August 25 release, which was read on September 19. According to this release, MillerKnoll's earnings for September 2022 will be announced before the market opens on September 22, and a call is scheduled for 8:30 ET. https://news.millerknoll.com/2026-08-25-MillerKnoll-Schedules-First-Quarter-Fiscal-Year-2027-Conference-Call-and-Webcast
R91908 Abivax Sep21 earnings date
Whole-share momentum backstop2026-09-19 08:05
A news scan found the headline that Abivax will release its H1 financial results for September 21, 2026, on September 19, but the exact time of publication is not specified. https://ir.abivax.com/events/event-details/h1-2026-financial-results/
R91908 BLS Sep21-22 calendar
Whole-share momentum backstop2026-09-19 08:05
A news scan found the headline 'ReadSep19'. The February 18 last modified calendar lists no releases for September 21-22, but this does not imply that there are no other macro events, which refers to major economic events, during this time. https://www.bls.gov/schedule/2026/09_sched.htm
R91908 Next two sessions macro calendar
Whole-share momentum backstop2026-09-19 08:05
A news scan found the headline 'ReadSep19'. The macro calendar for the next two sessions includes the following events: on September 21, the Survey of Consumer Expectations household spending data will be released at 11:00 ET, which is 15:00 UTC. On September 22, the Philly non-manufacturing data will be released at 8:30 ET, which is 12:30 UTC, and the Richmond manufacturing data will be released at 10:00 ET, which is 14:00 UTC. The New York Fed has its own survey, and other districts have their own timing, according to the agency calendar relay. However, the link to the Philly survey redirects to an unrelated calendar, and the attempt to fetch the Richmond data failed. There are no actual outcomes yet. https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/calendars/i-sep26.html
FRO R91908 issuer forward cash scenarios and underlying vintage = 10.35
Supply chain2026-09-19 08:04
A September 17 presentation, on slide 6, showed a model that looked 12 months ahead from August 28, using the fleet and share price from August 27 and August 28. The model estimated the free cash flow per share to be 6.80, 10.35, and 13.91, at a spot rate of -30%, base, and +30%. The base rates used were 140,000 dollars per day for a VLCC, 115,000 dollars per day for a Suez, and 255,000 dollars per day for an LR. The model also estimated 23,770 spot days and 4,066 time charter days, for a total of 27,836 earning days. These are just illustrations and not guarantees. On slide 4, the presentation showed that 156,900, 117,400, and 81,000 of the third quarter contracts were done, at 86%, 79%, and 70% completion, based on the second quarter presentation, not new September 17 fixings. The annualized 24% yield mentioned on slide 6 is based on the August 27 price, not the September 18 price. This information comes from the issuer, using data from Kpler and Clarksons, which are not independent sources. https://www.frontlineplc.cy/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Company-Presentation-Pareto-Conference-2026.pdf
R91908 enrolled sanctions law timing and exceptions = 30
Supply chain2026-09-19 08:04
A news scan found the headline about the R91908 enrolled sanctions law. The law was enacted on September 18 and confirmed by the White House. The closest source to the enrolled text says that section 102 will be reviewed within 30 days and then every 180 days. Section 113 explains the duties, which can be up to 100%, and it also explains the criteria for the top-five buyer and evasion, as well as the timing for new purchases, which is 30 days, and advance reporting, which is 10 days. Section 114 excludes certain activities, such as humanitarian, nuclear, and non-Russian transit oil, license, and wind-down activities. Section 115 explains the waiver process, which requires Congressional certification. This is not an immediate universal 100% tariff. The Congress.gov website still shows the early SEED title by default, but the Senate amended vote and Govinfo ENR resolve the document-version mismatch. The computed 30-day date is October 18, and this is not based on the assumed announcement hour. No probability has been assigned to this policy. https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/BILLS-119hr5334enr/pdf/BILLS-119hr5334enr.pdf
R91908 joint gap and Monte Carlo measurements = 0.22817876236373233
Whole-share momentum backstop2026-09-19 08:04
A news scan found the following data: this is a set of statistics and simulation results, referred to as R91908. The statistics include the number of observations, which is 1518, the gap correlation, which is 0.22817876236373233, the worst joint gap in dollars, which is -4.97832962124513, and the date of the worst joint gap, which is 2025-04-07. The gap correlation is a measure of how closely two things are related, in this case, the gap between two values. The worst joint gap in dollars is the largest loss, and it happened on April 7, 2025. The gap at the 1% level in dollars is -3.1614587081653003, and the correlation over the last 252 days is -0.41657179298281216. A simulation was run with a seed of 190908, which is a starting point for random numbers, 10000 paths, which are different possible outcomes, 60 days, which is the time period, a block size of 5 days, which is a way of grouping data, and a sample size of 1255. The results of the simulation include the terminal value at the 5% level in dollars, which is -13.725602935665727, the terminal median value in dollars, which is 6.065331103171697, and the terminal value at the 95% level in dollars, which is 25.972824647228244. The simulation also included two stocks, EEM and XLE, with the following results: for EEM, the stop first rate is 0.6226, the target first rate is 0.2373, and the neither rate is 0.1401, and for XLE, the stop first rate is 0.5383, the target first rate is 0.1841, and the neither rate is 0.2776. The data was measured in September 2019 and the source is from September 2020 to September 2026. The simulation used a diagnostic called stationary 5-day block paired close returns, which is a way of analyzing data, and did not use live odds, which are probabilities based on current events. The raw risk.py data was retained, which is a way of calculating risk. An earlier study that included crashes, which are large losses, was not contradicted by this later study that started at a different time. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all
XLV FDA calendar scope and Galleri meeting
Sector rotation2026-09-19 08:03
A news scan found the note that from September 19 to September 23, between 9 and 18 Eastern Time, there will be a Galleri advisory panel meeting, which is outside of the next two sessions, and will provide nonbinding recommendations, not an approval deadline. The page materials are limited to two waiver links, with no claim of complete briefing coverage. A search did not verify if there was an FDA decision on September 21 or 22, which is a coverage gap, not proof that none existed. https://www.fda.gov/advisory-committees/advisory-committee-calendar/september-23-2026-molecular-and-clinical-genetics-panel-medical-devices-advisory-committee-meeting
MLKN MillerKnoll earnings timing
Sector rotation2026-09-19 08:03
The issuer of MLKN, which is MillerKnoll, made an announcement on August 25, which was reviewed again on September 19. The announcement stated that the fiscal Q1 2027 results for MillerKnoll will be released on September 22 before the market opens, and there will be a conference call at 8:30 ET. This information is provided as context and is not related to the fixed income universe, which is a type of investment portfolio that focuses on fixed income securities. https://news.millerknoll.com/2026-08-25-MillerKnoll-Schedules-First-Quarter-Fiscal-Year-2027-Conference-Call-and-Webcast
08UTC retained stop-through-gap stress and payoff
Core trend fractional2026-09-19 08:03
A news scan found the report: Refreshed inputs September 19; retained gap assumptions from prior analyses, not newly measured extrema. Scenario gap2g after stop, 0.5% friction. Model is not a loss guarantee. The report included the following data: the symbol QQQ has a size of 93.33, an ordinary loss of 2.1406405278259037, stress of 22.608077650841185, target gain of 15.091073990767876, and rr of 7.049793645687354. The symbol IWM has a size of 93.33, an ordinary loss of 2.1136403379091897, stress of 27.921384363225883, target gain of 11.965886762557755, and rr of 5.661269113738809. The symbol EEM has a size of 93.33, an ordinary loss of 2.626690213337311, stress of 25.913232637416957, target gain of 10.003075328263728, and rr of 3.8082432703605487. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all
ABVX Abivax first-half results date
Sector rotation2026-09-19 08:03
A news scan found the headline that Abivax, with the ticker symbol ABVX, will release its first-half 2026 financial results on September 21, 2021, according to the company's issuer page updated on September 19. https://ir.abivax.com/events/event-details/h1-2026-financial-results/
FDA calendar coverage gap
Core trend fractional2026-09-19 08:03
A news scan found the headline 'FDA calendar coverage gap'. Retrieved on September 19, the calendar shows headers but does not include meeting rows. This means we cannot confirm whether there are meetings scheduled for September 21-22 or if the FDA has made any decisions, because the advisory calendar does not cover all PDUFA, which stands for Prescription Drug User Fee Act, decisions. https://www.fda.gov/advisory-committees/advisory-committee-calendar
BLS two-session calendar coverage
Sector rotation2026-09-19 08:03
A news scan found the headline about the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which is referred to as BLS, two-session calendar coverage. Read on September 19: the selected-release calendar has no entries for September 21 and 22; this does not prove that the all-market calendar is empty. https://www.bls.gov/schedule/2026/09_sched.htm
MillerKnoll earnings timing
Core trend fractional2026-09-19 08:03
A news scan found the headline about MillerKnoll's earnings timing, which is an announcement by the company that issued the news. The announcement, which was made on August 25 and retrieved on September 19, states that the company will release its fiscal year 2027, first quarter results on September 22 before the market opens, and will have a conference call at 8:30 ET. This announcement is about a company that is not part of the nine-asset universe that we typically track. https://news.millerknoll.com/2026-08-25-MillerKnoll-Schedules-First-Quarter-Fiscal-Year-2027-Conference-Call-and-Webcast
September21–22 Board release calendar
Sector rotation2026-09-19 08:03
A news scan found the headline for the September 21-22 board release calendar. According to this, on September 21, there will be releases at 16:15 ET for H10 and at 13 ET for H6 on September 22. Both days will also have releases at 13 ET for CP13 and at 16:15 ET for H15. This calendar lists the schedule for future statistical releases, which does not include policy decisions. https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/2026-september.htm
Abivax H1 results date
Core trend fractional2026-09-19 08:03
A news scan found the headline that Abivax will release its H1 financial results on September 21, 2026, but the release hour has not been established, and this is outside the nine-asset universe, retrieved on September 19. https://ir.abivax.com/events/event-details/h1-2026-financial-results/
September21–22 macro calendar
Sector rotation2026-09-19 08:03
A news scan found the headline for the September 21-22 macro calendar. According to the calendar, on September 21, the SCE Household Spending data will be released at 11:00 ET. On September 22, the Philadelphia nonmanufacturing data will be released at 8:30 ET, and the Richmond manufacturing data will be released at 10:00 ET. This is an agency calendar, which lists scheduled future releases, but does not include actual results or surprises. https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/calendars/i-sep26.html
Fed two-session calendar
Core trend fractional2026-09-19 08:03
A news scan found the headline of a retrieved Federal Reserve Board calendar for September 19, which includes a two-session calendar: September 21 at 16:15 Eastern Time and September 22 at 13 Eastern Time, with both sessions also listed at 16:15 Eastern Time for CP13 and H15. The page was last updated on June 24, 2025, and the schedules are subject to revision. https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/2026-september.htm
BLS two-session coverage
Core trend fractional2026-09-19 08:03
A news scan found the headline for the primary BLS September calendar retrieved on September 19, which lists no selected releases for September 21-22, but this does not mean the entire macro calendar is empty. https://www.bls.gov/schedule/2026/09_sched.htm
Two-session macro calendar
Core trend fractional2026-09-19 08:03
A news scan found the headline of a retrieved calendar from the New York Federal Reserve, or NYFed, on September 19. The calendar lists the following events: on September 21, the Survey of Consumer Expectations, or SCE, Household Spending is scheduled for 11:00 ET; on September 22, the Philadelphia nonmanufacturing report is scheduled for 8:30 ET and the Richmond manufacturing report is scheduled for 10:00 ET. The Philadelphia report link redirects to a generic manufacturing calendar, which is a calendar that lists manufacturing events, and the Richmond link failed, meaning it did not work. The times listed for Tuesday are based on the NYFed calendar, but were not independently confirmed with the originating banks, which are the banks that originally released the reports. https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/calendars/i-sep26.html
R91908 next two sessions macro calendar = 3
Convex tail2026-09-19 08:03
A calendar from an agency was retrieved on September 19. It shows the following events for the next two sessions: on Monday, September 21, at 11:00 ET, there will be a report on household spending from the SCE. On Tuesday, September 22, at 8:30 ET, the Philadelphia Fed will release a report on non-manufacturing, and at 10:00 ET, the Richmond Fed will release a report on manufacturing. The dates are tentative, and the outcomes of the surveys are unknown, which means there could be surprises. The Bureau of Labor Statistics website lists no national releases for September 21 and 22, but this does not mean there will be no other macroeconomic news on those days. https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/calendars/i-sep26.html
IONS R91908 obsolete September22 PDUFA resolved by early approval = 19
Convex tail2026-09-19 08:03
The company that issued the announcement on September 3, 2026, confirmed that the FDA approved ZANVASTRO, which is 19 days before the former target date of September 22. This information was checked on September 19. The closest source from the company reports that the regulator took action, and the original target date in March and the calendar listed by a third party describe an older state, which is not a contradiction. The trade that was pending a decision should be excluded, and the approval does not establish post-launch cash or a new dated catalyst. https://ir.ionis.com/news-releases/news-release-details/zanvastrotm-zilganersen-approved-fda-first-and-only-disease
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