Notes

A data scan found the following simulation results for symbol TH: the first simulation had a bid ratio of 0.6, an iv, or implied volatility, of 0.6851261646420066, 20000 iterations, a mean loss of 4.081783784040186 USD, a 96.205 percent probability of loss, a stop loss percentage of 96.05, a target percentage of 1.4500000000000002, a fifth percentile loss of 15.636558248967779 USD, and a half Kelly percentage of 0. The second simulation had a bid ratio of 0.3888888889, the same iv, the same number of iterations, a mean loss of 11.999999999799998 USD, a 100 percent probability of loss, a stop loss percentage of 100, no target percentage, the same loss as the mean, and the same half Kelly percentage. The third simulation had a bid ratio of 0, the same iv, the same number of iterations, a mean loss of 19 USD, the same probability and stop loss percentage as the second simulation, no target percentage, the same loss as the mean, and the same half Kelly percentage. The fourth simulation had a zero mean, or average, assumption, a bid ratio of 1, the same iv, the same number of iterations, a mean loss of 2.9324559087636657 USD, a 96.48 percent probability of loss, a stop loss percentage of 96.405, a target percentage of 2.205, a fifth percentile loss of 16.284681207333378 USD, and the same half Kelly percentage. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars

A simulation was run with the following results: for HALO with a zero mean, a bid ratio of 0.3888888889, an iv of 0.3341421877346259, 20,000 iterations, the mean loss in USD was -15.055555555300002, the loss probability was 100 percent, the stop percentage was 100 percent, the target percentage was 0 percent, the fifth percentile of USD was -15.0555555553, and the half Kelly percentage was 0. For HALO with a zero mean, a bid ratio of 0, an iv of 0.3341421877346259, 20,000 iterations, the mean loss in USD was -24, the loss probability was 100 percent, the stop percentage was 100 percent, the target percentage was 0 percent, the fifth percentile of USD was -24, and the half Kelly percentage was 0. For TH with a non-zero mean, a bid ratio of 1, an iv of 0.6851261646420066, 20,000 iterations, the mean gain in USD was 4.495212985104531, the loss probability was 93.23 percent, the stop percentage was 93.075 percent, the target percentage was 3.61 percent, the fifth percentile of USD was -16.83558857278508, and the half Kelly percentage was 1.15. For TH with a non-zero mean, a bid ratio of 0.8, an iv of 0.6851261646420066, 20,000 iterations, the mean gain in USD was 0.5689491421763745, the loss probability was 94.535 percent, the stop percentage was 94.365 percent, the target percentage was 2.565 percent, the fifth percentile of USD was -16.403020286588273, and the half Kelly percentage was 0.15. Iv is a measure of volatility, and half Kelly percentage refers to a betting strategy. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars

A simulation was run on the stock symbol HALO with the following results: the simulation had a mean loss of 24 USD when the zero mean was set to false, and a mean loss of between 1.54 and 9.28 USD when the zero mean was set to true, with the loss probability percentage ranging from 91.59 to 95.98 percent, and the target percentage ranging from 3.96 to 8.38 percent, with the number of simulations, N, set to 20000, the implied volatility, iv, set to 0.3341421877346259, and the bid ratio set to 0, 0.6, 0.8, and 1. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars

A simulation batch 0 for the symbol HALO was run with the following results: the simulation had a mean USD value of 4.899527809755288 with a bid ratio of 1, an implied volatility, or iv, of 0.3341421877346259, and 20000 iterations, or N. The loss probability percentage was 87.97, the stop percentage was 87.97, and the target percentage was 11.95. The fifth percentile USD value, or P05_USD, was -20.849722353987456, and the half Kelly percentage, a measure of optimal bet size, was 2.2950000000000004. Other simulations with different bid ratios were also run: with a bid ratio of 0.8, the mean USD value was -1.188588876836523, the loss probability percentage was 91.45, the stop percentage was 91.45, the target percentage was 8.48, the P05_USD value was -20.652429949654604, and the half Kelly percentage was 0. With a bid ratio of 0.6, the mean USD value was -6.293466126210666, the loss probability percentage was 94.28, the stop percentage was 94.28, the target percentage was 5.6000000000000005, the P05_USD value was -20.557422799957365, and the half Kelly percentage was 0. With a bid ratio of 0.3888888889, the mean USD value was -15.055555555300002, the loss probability percentage was 100, the stop percentage was 100, the target percentage was 0, the P05_USD value was -15.0555555553, and the half Kelly percentage was 0. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars

A news scan found the following update: Retrieved on September 20 at 04:07, the latest prices from the IEX exchange were EEM at 67.04 on September 18 at 20:06:00 and XLE at 64.24 on September 18 at 20:12:51. These prices are 0.33 and 0.39 away from 67.37 and 64.63, which are below the Average True Range, or ATR, of 0.94325 and 1.264725. The distances from the SIP close prices of 67.03 and 64.31 are 0.34 and 0.32. The quotes are stale, meaning they are not being used to fill orders. The own ledger has 12 and 13 pending orders, with 1 each expiring on September 22 at 02:04 UTC. There are no own closed orders, resulting in no empirical win rate or slippage. A collector note from September 20 at 03:16 states that 2 out of 2 exits were completed, with 0 and 49 runs left. The supplied book has 240 reserved, 132 residual, and 108 equity, with a capital of 1000 and a cap of 250. In the context of other funds, which are flat with no queues, the planned prices for EEM and XLE are 93.33 and 86.66, which would aggregate to 160.70 and 151.29, but these are not orders. The planned risk is 4.42 and the reward is 20.56, with a 10% joint gap of 13.20, and one of each has been fixed. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-snapshots?symbols=EEM,XLE&feed=iex

A news scan found the following backtest results for R92004: the system tested stock TH with a 30-day horizon and 0.001 slippage, which is the difference between expected and actual trade prices, in the training window, resulting in a 0.9782585970996145 percent return and 0.7891485226721895 percent drawdown, which is the largest decline in value, with a 50 percent win rate over 2 trades. In the known holdout window, the return was 1.686445288846989 percent and the drawdown was 0.8345756951795957 percent with a 100 percent win rate over 2 trades. With a 0.005 slippage in the training window, the return was 0.9262455496637798 percent and the drawdown was 0.7892431248694987 percent with a 50 percent win rate over 2 trades. In the known holdout window with 0.005 slippage, the return was 1.631596659061817 percent and the drawdown was 0.8636961507573426 percent with a 100 percent win rate over 2 trades. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars

A data scan found the following backtest results for symbol TH: the fund had a return of 0.8182799282204543 percent and a drawdown of 0.7119492106716474 percent with a 0.001 slippage, which is a small cost for buying or selling, over a 20-day horizon in the training window, with a win percentage of 50 and 2 trades, and a return of 1.1598809441400117 percent and a drawdown of 0.46999503259075315 percent in the known holdout window. With a 0.005 slippage, the return was 0.7669074360153679 percent and the drawdown was 0.712034558306196 in the training window, and 1.1071406800994108 percent return and 0.4994154860902378 percent drawdown in the known holdout window, all with the same horizon, win percentage, and number of trades. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars

A data scan found the following backtest results for symbol TH: the fund had a 1.4064 percent return and 0.5518 percent drawdown with 0.001 slippage in the training window, and a 0.0084 percent return and 0.2218 percent drawdown with the same slippage in the known holdout window. With 0.005 slippage, the fund had a 1.3527 percent return and 0.5639 percent drawdown in the training window, and a -0.0397 percent return and 0.2338 percent drawdown in the known holdout window. The win percentage was 100 percent in the training window and 50 percent in the known holdout window for both slippage values, with 2 trades in each case. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars

A news scan found the following data: the automated trading fund manager backtested the stock HALO with different settings. The results were as follows: for a 30-day horizon with 0.001 slippage, the return was 0.5708817010793407 percent and the drawdown was 1.1072559754985445 percent in the training window, with a win percentage of 57.14285714285714 percent over 14 trades. In the known holdout window, the return was -0.5149427241087985 percent and the drawdown was 1.2866344090780912 percent, with a win percentage of 33.33333333333333 percent over 3 trades. For a 30-day horizon with 0.005 slippage, the return was 0.23192321578973463 percent and the drawdown was 1.1809591235521055 percent in the training window, with a win percentage of 57.14285714285714 percent over 14 trades. In the known holdout window, the return was -0.5850250355237783 percent and the drawdown was 1.3197225694331571 percent, with a win percentage of 33.33333333333333 percent over 3 trades. Slippage refers to the difference between expected and actual trade prices. Drawdown is the largest decline in value. Win percentage is the proportion of successful trades. Horizon is the time period considered. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars

A data scan found the following backtest results for symbol HALO: the system tested the stock with a 20-day horizon and 0.001 slippage, which is a small cost for buying or selling, in the training window, and it had a 0.49138783169051975 percent return and a 0.9626956734599124 percent drawdown, which is a measure of the biggest decline in value, with a 50 percent win rate over 14 trades. In the known holdout window, which is a period of time used to test the system, it had a -0.4689230467205803 percent return and a 1.2549132805792729 percent drawdown with a 33.33333333333333 percent win rate over 3 trades. The system also tested the stock with a 20-day horizon and 0.005 slippage in the training window, and it had a 0.1527476401722403 percent return and a 1.0209283538865077 percent drawdown with a 50 percent win rate over 14 trades. In the known holdout window, it had a -0.5391896211080849 percent return and a 1.288128452459869 percent drawdown with a 33.33333333333333 percent win rate over 3 trades. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars

A news scan found the following data: the symbol HALO was backtested with the following results: for a horizon of 10 with 0.001 slippage, which is the difference between expected and actual trade price, in the train window, the return percentage was 0.14830353938391524, the drawdown percentage was 0.6881852480771777, the win percentage was 64.28571428571429, and the number of trades was 14. In the known holdout window, the return percentage was -0.5322562086462703, the drawdown percentage was 1.0565154126462306, the win percentage was 33.33333333333333, and the number of trades was 3. For a horizon of 10 with 0.005 slippage in the train window, the return percentage was -0.18896294125425755, the drawdown percentage was 0.7238081981956523, the win percentage was 50, and the number of trades was 14. In the known holdout window, the return percentage was -0.6022691967998384, the drawdown percentage was 1.1003812167998506, the win percentage was 33.33333333333333, and the number of trades was 3. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars

On February 24, 2021, the issuer filed a Securities and Exchange Commission exhibit, which included 700 million dollars in.25 percent convertible notes due 2027, plus an option for an additional 105 million dollars. This date is also found in an independently reproduced stock breakout table, which shows the next open price at 50.62 dollars, a 20-session return of -17.996839 percent, and a volume that is 10.573978 times the normal volume. This coincidence supports a competing explanation for the volume, rather than attributing it to a specific cause, and a type of financing event classified as N1 cannot be used to develop a new financing strategy. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1159036/000119312521055596/d110113dex991.htm

As of August 3, the company had 109.748926 million shares. By June 30, the current debt was 1311 million and long term debt was 10696 million, totaling 12007 million, with 1364 million in cash, resulting in a net debt of 10643 million. In the first half of the year, the company paid 369 million in interest, and after accounting for 19 million in interest income, the net interest expense was 350 million. This data is not reflective of the company's position as of September. Additionally, the debt reduction was not equal to twice the equity free cash. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1306830/000130683026000117/ce-20260630.htm

As of November 20, 2025, a creditor analysis was done on LXCHEM.NS, which is a stock ticker symbol, and R92004, which is a dated credit assessment. The analysis found that for the first half of the fiscal year 2026, the margin was 4.9 percent, compared to 9.8 percent previously. The company's debt was 330 crore, which is a unit of Indian currency, and its net worth was 1928 crore as of September 2025. The company is exposed to fluctuations in commodity prices, specifically acid and ethanol, as well as foreign exchange rates, and has a partial hedge, which is a financial strategy to reduce risk, in place for exports. The credit rating was paid for by the issuer, which means the company being rated paid for the assessment, and was based partly on inputs from management. However, the current credit status is not up to date. Despite this, the company's 11.8 percent margin in the June quarter can coexist with the previously negative outlook. https://www.crisilratings.com/mnt/winshare/Ratings/RatingList/RatingDocs/LaxmiOrganicIndustriesLimited_November%2020_%202025_RR_381966.html

On August 31, 2026, it was decided to sell 19% of the stake for approximately 152 million USD and retain 11%. The sold interest had 2025 equity earnings of around 4 million. The sale is expected to close in the fourth quarter, subject to certain conditions. Nutrinova is funding the entire purchase and will cover the ongoing costs of the transitional diketene unit, which is operated by CE. This means CE has no funding obligation. The buyer's funding does not come from CE's free cash flow or current receipts. https://investors.celanese.com/news/celanese-to-sell-additional-shares-of-nutrinova-joint-venture-to-mitsui-and-co-ltd/2685762a-445e-4def-b7f3-9799963cfd59

A company page from INEOS mentions that they finished buying the Eastman acid plant in Texas City, which can produce 600,000 tons of acid per year, in 2023. This means that the assets and profits from this plant should not be assigned to EMN. It is also important to note that the capacity of the plant is not the same as its output for 2026. This information was confirmed on September 20 and again on December 1, 2023, when the acquisition was completed. https://www.ineos.com/businesses/ineos-acetyls/acetyls-in-america/who-we-are/

A July 29 issuer deck for the June quarter reported the following information for LXCHEM.NS, also known as a company's stock ticker symbol, which is a unique code to identify a stock: sales were 9683 million Indian Rupees, EBITDA, which stands for earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization, a measure of a company's overall financial performance, was 1143 million with a margin of 11.8%, and PAT, or profit after tax, was 677 million. Essentials revenue was 7265 million, with EBITDA split 72% from Essentials and 28% from Specialties. The top 10 customers accounted for 23% of sales, and exports made up 35%. A new capacity for producing ethyl acetate, a type of chemical, was commissioned at a location referred to as Lote. These events occurred before the forced shutdowns in August. https://www.laxmi.com/documents/default.aspx?f=investor-relations/q1fy27-laxmi-earning-deck-july-29-2026-563.pdf

A news scan found the management report of LXCHEM.NS, which is a counterexample to the downstream-loser thesis, as of July 30. In the first quarter of the fiscal year 2027, the company's Essentials EBITDA, which is a measure of profit, is expected to be 11-12%. The management says that through the business cycle, they expect mid-single-digit growth, meaning growth of 5-9%. The company reports that customer demand is mixed, with some customers stocking up, some delaying orders, and some ordering just in time. The company also mentions that the spike in input costs in April was moderated in May and June. Additionally, the qualification of the Dahej project is expected in the third quarter of the fiscal year 2027, with a ramp-up in the fourth quarter, but this is not yet confirmed with paid orders, and is based on management testimony, not independent invoices, with the reference number R92004. https://www.laxmi.com/documents/default.aspx?f=investor-relations/transcript-of-investor-meet-july-30-2026-568.pdf

A news scan found the headline about the XLE fund's dividend calendar. As of September 20, the issuer's 2026 schedule on page 3 lists the sector ETF XLE group's ex-dividend date as September 21 and the payable date as September 23. The historical distribution workbook for XLE shows that on June 22, the dividend was $0.384876. However, the September dividend amount is not in the downloaded file, and third-party sources give conflicting amounts of $0.37 and $0.3803, which were not acted on. The date of the dividend is known, but the amount is unknown. According to the issuer's definition, which can be found at https://www.ssga.com/us/en/institutional/resources/documents/etf-dividend-distributions, shares bought on the ex-date do not have the latest dividend entitlement, meaning that a type of investment called an exchange-traded fund or ETF, which is a security that tracks an index, does not give the buyer the right to the most recent dividend payment. It is also not assumed that a Monday fill, which is a term that refers to a type of investment transaction, is entitled to the dividend. https://www.ssga.com/library-content/products/fund-data/etfs/us/distribution/SPDR_Dividend_Distribution_Schedule.pdf

A news scan found the following data line: a dividend convention simulation sensitivity test, labeled R92004, was run. The test had two parts: total proxy and price only. The total proxy part looked at 1255 cases and found the following exit frequencies for two stocks, EEM and XLE. For EEM, the stop first frequency was 0.6264, the target first frequency was 0.2315, and the neither frequency was 0.1421. For XLE, the stop first frequency was 0.5419, the target first frequency was 0.178, and the neither frequency was 0.2801. The unstopped terminal values were -13.692639696010037, 5.5778139751457445, and 25.07779318050785 for the 5th, 50th, and 95th percentiles. The price only part also looked at 1255 cases and found the following exit frequencies for EEM and XLE. For EEM, the stop first frequency was 0.6462, the target first frequency was 0.2176, and the neither frequency was 0.1362. For XLE, the stop first frequency was 0.5616, the target first frequency was 0.1642, and the neither frequency was 0.2742. The unstopped terminal values were -14.488618360514453, 4.665241971145377, and 24.212728061139096 for the 5th, 50th, and 95th percentiles. This was a paired 5-day bootstrap test with a seed of 200904, 10,000 paths, and 60 sessions, using 1255 historical returns that ended on September 18. The test used daily close prices crossing static pending brackets and was a model diagnostic, not actual price execution or live probabilities. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars

A news scan found the headline 'R92004 historical option missingness audit; not an option backtest'. The audit reviewed 5 OCC queries from 200 explicit requests, starting from 2025-01-01 and ending on 2026-09-19, without pagination. The audit found approximate matches for moneyness and 30+ calendar-day expiry, including HALO 250620 C80 with an open price of 39 on May 8, which was oversize by 39, and only had entries on May 8 and 9 after the initial entry. The audit also found HALO 251017 C90 with no entry on September 22, but with prices of 20 and 05 on September 23 and 26, respectively. Additionally, HALO 260918 C105 had an open price of 2.30 on August 7, which was oversize by 230, and had 25 later bars. The options TH 260417 C12.5 and TH 260619 C23 were entirely absent from the audit. The absence of these options does not prove they were unlisted. The audit found that 0 out of 5 options had verified same-session affordable entry and bid-ask exit paths, and it is not possible to forward fill missing days into guaranteed stops. The current audit from August 1 to September 18 found that HALO Oct 16 C130 had 2 contracts with 2 days, and C125 had 45 contracts with 53 days. THC 27 and C26 each had 1 contract with 1 day. The latest trade for C130 was on September 15, with a derivative price of 33 versus a bar/metadata price of 35, but this price ambiguity is not proof of mispricing. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/option-bars

A data scan found the following event rows for HALO: on 2024-06-06, the entry price was 51.08, volume was 4.306460392520707, with returns of 0.009201252936570148 over 10 days, 0.028778386844166004 over 20 days, and 0.06382145653876292 over 30 days. On 2024-08-14, the entry price was 58.09, volume was 2.024358253634763, with returns of 0.10896884145291774 over 10 days, 0.042175933895679085 over 20 days, and -0.019624720261662953 over 30 days. On 2025-05-07, the entry price was 69.845, volume was 6.571683512385915, with returns of -0.2278616937504474 over 10 days, -0.2333023122628678 over 20 days, and -0.2438972009449495 over 30 days. On 2025-09-19, the entry price was 78.12, volume was 3.418257330964292, with returns of -0.11699948796722992 over 10 days, -0.14196108550947262 over 20 days, and -0.16551459293394788 over 30 days. On 2026-08-06, the entry price was 90, volume was 1.6453729736140268, with returns of 0.17911111111111122 over 10 days, 0.2306666666666668 over 20 days, and 0.24944444444444458 over 30 days. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars

A data scan found the following HALO event rows: a list of dates with corresponding entry prices, volume, and return rates over 10, 20, and 30 periods. The list includes the following entries: on 2020-04-23, the entry price was 22.09, volume was 1.6573754990532732, r10 was 0.057492077863286584, r20 was 0.1063829787234043, and r30 was 0.06835672249886837. On 2020-06-30, the entry price was 27.37, volume was 1.732942264293405, r10 was 0.06083302886371933, r20 was -0.025940811107051598, and r30 was 0.04347826086956519. On 2020-10-20, the entry price was 30.39, volume was 2.979863047440091, r10 was 0.040473840078973256, r20 was 0.34188877920368554, and r30 was 0.3379401118789074. On 2021-02-24, the entry price was 50.62, volume was 10.57397752627474, r10 was -0.15408929276965622, r20 was -0.17996839193994474, and r30 was -0.16633741604109042. On 2022-07-07, the entry price was 50.73, volume was 2.1842547983855054, r10 was -0.010644589000591398, r20 was -0.10526315789473673, and r30 was -0.15020697811945594. On 2022-11-10, the entry price was 54.37, volume was 2.423205322840654, r10 was 0.005517748758506524, r20 was 0.047084789405922534, and r30 was 0.05738458708846794. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars

A data scan found the following event rows for HALO: each row represents a trading event with a date, entry price, volume, and returns over 10, 20, and 30 days. The returns are called r10, r20, and r30, which are short for 10-day return, 20-day return, and 30-day return. The events are as follows: on 2017-03-16, the entry price was 14.42, volume was 2.0889268641485517, r10 was -0.09639389736477122, r20 was -0.11165048543689315, and r30 was -0.03328710124826628. On 2017-09-14, the entry price was 16.03, volume was 23.71322775840632, r10 was 0.0854647535870241, r20 was 0.10917030567685582, and r30 was 0.06113537117903922. On 2017-11-08, the entry price was 19.2, volume was 3.4752205261566256, r10 was -0.050000000000000044, r20 was -0.011979166666666652, and r30 was 0.04531250000000009. On 2017-12-08, the entry price was 19.7, volume was 1.5481637580890386, r10 was 0.019289340101522834, r20 was -0.05279187817258879, and r30 was -0.044670050761421276. On 2019-11-14, the entry price was 18.43, volume was 8.732790233222119, r10 was 0.05208898534997286, r20 was 0.029842647856755278, and r30 was -0.03255561584373312. On 2020-01-14, the entry price was 19.95, volume was 2.243425702629093, r10 was -0.022556390977443552, r20 was 0.0025062656641603454, and r30 was 0.01604010025062652. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars

A data scan found the following event rows with 10, 20, and 30 session returns. The data includes the date, entry price, volume, and returns for 10, 20, and 30 sessions. The returns are calculated as the percentage change in price over the given session period. The data points are as follows: on 2022-04-20, the entry price was 6.98, the volume was 3.2220569730687494, the 10 session return was 0.06017191977077352, the 20 session return was -0.13323782234957027, and the 30 session return was -0.06160458452722073. On 2022-07-11, the entry price was 9.89, the volume was 8.64078242088269, the 10 session return was 0.41759352881698675, the 20 session return was 0.41456016177957533, and the 30 session return was 0.39635995955510617. On 2026-03-12, the entry price was 9.73, the volume was 3.488753937162653, the 10 session return was -0.00411099691675243, the 20 session return was 0.48612538540596106, and the 30 session return was 0.46454265159301134. On 2026-05-11, the entry price was 18.08, the volume was 3.466628093168731, the 10 session return was 0.014933628318584136, the 20 session return was -0.09070796460176977, and the 30 session return was 0.10674778761061976. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars