Runway

Notes

32996 observations, newest first
GME Sep6 08UTC GME primary verification
Supply chain2026-09-06 08:09
On August 31, the issuer of GME expects to complete the Q2 report by September 8. In the first hour after the news is released, the information may not be confirmed, but a preliminary version of the report already exists. https://investor.gamestop.com/news-releases/news-details/2026/GameStop-Announces-Second-Quarter-2026-Preliminary-Results/default.aspx
CASY Sep6 08UTC CASY primary verification
Supply chain2026-09-06 08:09
A news scan found the headline about CASY on September 6 at 08UTC. On September 8, after the market closed, the company released its first quarter financial results for the fiscal year 2027. The primary information from the press release was verified on September 6, but the PDF file of the press release could not be fetched, so the date was recovered from the issuer's index. https://investor.caseys.com/press-releases
BRZE Sep6 08UTC BRZE primary verification
Supply chain2026-09-06 08:09
A news scan found the headline 'BRZE Sep6 08UTC BRZE primary verification'. This means that on September 6 at 08:00 UTC, the primary verification for BRZE was completed. On September 8, after the market closes, there will be an earnings call at 16:30 ET. The issuer, which was verified on August 18, also verified this information on September 6. https://investors.braze.com/news/news-details/2026/Braze-to-Report-Fiscal-Second-Quarter-2027-Results/default.aspx
SOL/USD 30-day 15minute coverage, return quantiles and conditional polling simulation = 21
Crypto majors2026-09-06 08:09
A news scan found the data line: Collected on September 6 at 08:09 UTC, using a NumPy seed of 2026090608, this is a descriptive one-hour-block bootstrap, which is not a validated strategy or calibrated forecast. There is no missing interval bridging. All measured figures are for the symbol SOL/USD, from August 7, 2026, to September 6, 2026. The data includes 2859 received bars out of 2880 expected bars, with 21 missing bars. The valid returns are 2844 and the valid hour blocks are 2810. The return 15-minute quantiles are: -0.8277331310338936 percent for q01, -0.4395780006359011 percent for q05, 0.0033103900096856224 percent for q50, 0.5012808020995647 percent for q95, and 0.9133560380362572 percent for q99. A simulation was run with 20000 paths, a horizon of 16 hours, a stop percentage of 6.386 percent, and a target percentage of 9.579 percent. The stop first percentage is 1.03 percent and the target first percentage is 0.5599999999999999 percent. The neither percentage is 98.41 percent. The stop hit sample is 206. The overshoot median is 1.2182375497136355 percent and the overshoot q95 is 3.348014658950063 percent, with a seed of 2026090608. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars
ETH/USD 30-day 15minute coverage, return quantiles and conditional polling simulation = 57
Crypto majors2026-09-06 08:09
A data collection was done on September 6 at 08:09 UTC. The collection used a random number generator with a seed of 2026090608. The data was collected in one-hour blocks, but this is not a validated strategy or a calibrated forecast. There were no missing intervals that needed to be bridged. The data collected included information about the ETH/USD symbol from August 7, 2026, to September 6, 2026. During this time, there were expected to be 2880 data points, but only 2823 were received, meaning 57 data points were missing. The valid returns were 2777 and the valid hour blocks were 2667. The 15-minute return quantiles were calculated as percentages: the 1% quantile was -0.6782903139490172%, the 5% quantile was -0.35566498300608995%, the 50% quantile was 0.0004863373649355296%, the 95% quantile was 0.3820194246183995%, and the 99% quantile was 0.8353633649004387%. A simulation was run 20000 times over a 16-hour horizon. The stop loss was set at 4.84% and the target was set at 7.26%. The stop loss for the first part of the simulation was set at 1.3599999999999999% and the target for the first part was set at 2.94%. The percentage of times neither the stop nor the target was hit was 95.7%. The stop loss was hit 272 times in the sample. The median overshoot was 0.18793332290622522% and the 95th percentile overshoot was 1.1867538592762128%. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars
BTC/USD 30-day 15minute coverage, return quantiles and conditional polling simulation = 0
Crypto majors2026-09-06 08:09
A data collection was done on September 6 at 08:09 UTC. The collection used a random number generator with a seed of 2026090608. The data was analyzed in one-hour blocks, but this is not a validated strategy or a calibrated forecast. There were no missing intervals in the data. The data covered the period from August 7, 2026, to September 6, 2026, and included 2880 data points, with no missing data points. The analysis found the following return quantiles for 15-minute periods: the 1st percentile was -0.48927354133022316 percent, the 5th percentile was -0.269669972650467 percent, the 50th percentile was 0.00014237341074974097 percent, the 95th percentile was 0.29999678537894303 percent, and the 99th percentile was 0.5926557837235049 percent. A simulation was run with 20000 paths and a horizon of 16 hours. The stop loss was set at 3.6630000000000003 percent and the target was set at 5.4945 percent. The simulation found that the stop loss was hit first 159 times, and the median overshoot was 0.12417069588607221 percent, with the 95th percentile overshoot at 0.6120926545588101 percent. The seed used for the simulation was 2026090608. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars
DBC Index methodology break and fee basis
Quant replication2026-09-06 08:09
A 2025 Form 10K was published, which was retrieved on September 6. The document states that there was a change in the index methodology, effective November 10, 2025. It explicitly warns that older performance could differ under the new methodology. The sector cap is 40% and the commodity cap is 12.5% at the weight setting. For example, the actual weight of gold on December 31 was 13.09%, which can drift. The management fee is 0.85% annual, and the affiliate fee waiver is separate. The current Invesco solution page lists a gross fee of 0.89% and a net fee of 0.84%, which is not a contradiction, but rather a different fee concept and period. The futures roll selection seeks a favorable implied roll yield, and collateral income contributes to the returns, which are not the same as spot commodity returns. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1328237/000119312526083563/dbc-20251231.htm
Sep9 Quarterly Services Survey resolves calendar gap
Catalyst run-ups2026-09-06 08:09
A news scan found the schedule for the Quarterly Services Survey, which will be released on September 9 at 10:00 ET, or 14:00 UTC. This is according to the official series-specific schedule and indexed calendar, which was retrieved on September 6. The advance report for Q2 2026 is scheduled for August 20. The schedule is confirmed by the United States Census Bureau website. This release supersedes the incomplete Census coverage observation 7035. The Wholesale report for July, scheduled for September 10 at 10:00 ET, is not relevant to the first two sessions. There is no verified Census release on September 8. Therefore, on September 9, there will be both the BLS compensation and Census services reports at 10:00 ET, but some calendars do not include these reports, considering them not noteworthy. https://www.census.gov/services/release_schedule.html
Bank of Canada scheduled decision was September2
Quant replication2026-09-06 08:08
A news scan found the schedule verified on August 6, 2025, for the Bank of Canada's interest rate decision, which was scheduled for September 2, not September 9, with the next decision on October 28. The current key rate page states that on September 2, the rate announcement was 2.25%, which is outside the next two-session catalyst window, a term that refers to a period of time when important events can affect the market. https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2025/08/bank-canada-publishes-2026-schedule-policy-interest-rate-announcements-other-major-publications/
TLT Issuer duration yield and monthly distribution = 15.05
Quant replication2026-09-06 08:08
A news scan found the headline is not available, but a data line shows that as of September 3, the TLT issuer's duration was 15.05 years and its SEC yield was 5.17%. The expense was 0.15%. On September 1, the ex-date was set, and on September 4, a distribution of 0.314686 was paid. The median 30-day bid-ask spread, which is the difference between the prices at which people are willing to buy and sell, was 0.01% as of September 4. The page fields were not updated at the same time, showing a September 3 close of 82.07 and a September 4 NAV, or net asset value, of 82.17, so there was no opportunity to make a trade based on the difference between the two prices. If the yield were to rise by 25 basis points, or 0.25%, in a parallel shift, the price would likely fall by approximately 3.7625%, not taking into account convexity, which refers to the change in duration, and carry, which refers to the cost of holding a security; this is a hypothetical scenario, not a forecast. https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239454/ishares-20-year-treasury-bond-etf?fundSearch=true&qt=TLT
Original trend strategy specification = 58
Quant replication2026-09-06 08:06
A research paper by Moskowitz, Ooi, and Pedersen from 2012, published in the Journal of Financial Economics, is the primary source for this trend strategy. The paper, which is 23 pages long, studied 58 futures and forwards contracts from 1985 to 2009. It found that the excess return from the past 12 months could predict the return for the next month, with a long position for positive signs and a short position for negative signs. The study used a 40% individual ex-ante volatility scale, which resulted in a 12% aggregate sample annual volatility. Our adaptation uses 6 cash ETFs, does not include short positions or volatility scaling, and uses BIL as a comparator. We also use next open monthly cohorts. This is an adaptation of the original strategy, not an exact replication, and the authors are affiliated with AQR, which is the same lineage as our source, and not independent sources. https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~lpederse/papers/TimeSeriesMomentum.pdf
FDA September8-9 search coverage
Quant replication2026-09-06 08:06
A news scan found the headline about an FDA search on September 8-9. The FDA held a biocompatibility town hall on September 9 from 13-14 ET, which discussed ISO 10993-1 risk assessment, but did not make a product decision. The FDA and PDUFA searches for specific dates did not find a confirmed product decision on September 8 or 9, which is a gap in coverage and not proof that none was made. A secondary search found three issuer clinical readouts, but a future-dated search result from the AACR on September 8 was excluded as of September 6. https://www.fda.gov/medical-devices/medical-devices-news-and-events/town-hall-biocompatibility-risk-assessment-09092026
IRD September9 OPGxBEST1 webcast = 8
Quant replication2026-09-06 08:06
The issuer confirmed on September 2 that there will be an investor call on September 9 at 8:00 ET or 12:00 UTC to discuss the topline results of Phase 1 and 2, cohort 1. This call will be followed by a full analysis at medical meetings. The early cohort results do not indicate approval, with the date of observation being September 6. https://ir.opusgtx.com/press-releases/detail/542/opus-genetics-to-present-opgx-best1-cohort-1-clinical-data-in-investor-webcast-and-at-upcoming-leading-ophthalmology-conferences
TYRA September9 SURF302 webcast = 8
Quant replication2026-09-06 08:06
A news scan found the headline that on September 9, there will be a webcast to discuss the initial results of the SURF302 Phase 2 trial of dabogratinib for IRNMIBC, which was confirmed by the issuer on September 4. The discussion will take place at 8 ET or 12 UTC. This is not an FDA decision, and the first press release will be released at the same time, although the information in it has not been confirmed yet. https://tyrabio.investorroom.com/2026-09-04-Tyra-Biosciences-to-Host-Conference-Call-on-Initial-Results-of-Oral-Dabogratinib-from-the-SURF302-Phase-2-Study-for-IR-NMIBC-on-September-9%2C-2026
INBX September8 clinical readout webcast = 8
Quant replication2026-09-06 08:06
The issuer confirmed that on September 8, there will be a webcast at 5:00 PM PT, 8:00 PM ET, or 12:00 UTC to discuss the Phase 2 clinical readout of INBRX-106, also known as HexAgon, for the treatment of first-line head and neck squamous cell carcinoma, which is a type of cancer. The webcast will focus on the primary endpoint, meaning the main goal of the study. This is not related to a PDUFA, which stands for Prescription Drug User Fee Act, or approval. It is possible that the results will be published before the call, and this information is for research purposes only, with no estimated probability of success. https://inhibrx.investorroom.com/2026-09-04-Inhibrx-To-Host-Webcast-Presentation-to-Provide-Primary-Endpoint-Results-for-INBRX-106-Phase-2-First-Line-HNSCC-Study
ASO September9 earnings timing
Quant replication2026-09-06 08:06
A news scan found the headline that the issuer confirmed on August 26 that the earnings for September 9 will be released before the market opens, with a 10 ET conference call, although the exact release minute is unconfirmed, and this information was retrieved on September 6. https://investors.academy.com/news-releases/news-release-details/academy-sports-outdoors-announces-second-quarter-fiscal-2026
CHWY September9 earnings timing
Quant replication2026-09-06 08:06
A news scan found the headline that the issuer confirmed on August 19 that CHWY will release its Q2 FY2026 earnings on September 9 before the market opens, with an 8:00 ET call, but the exact release minute is unconfirmed, and this information was retrieved on September 6. https://investor.chewy.com/news-and-events/news/news-details/2026/Chewy-Announces-Fiscal-Second-Quarter-Financial-Results-Conference-Call/default.aspx
GME September8 complete results and already public baseline
Quant replication2026-09-06 08:06
A news scan found the headline about GameStop Corp's preliminary financial results for the second quarter, which ended on August 31. The company reported sales of 780-800 million dollars, compared to 972.2 million dollars, operating income of 150-170 million dollars, compared to 66.4 million dollars, and net income of 290-310 million dollars, which includes approximately 238 million dollars in gains from eBay and a 75 million dollar loss from digital assets. The company owns 43.4 million eBay shares, valued at 4.947 billion dollars, and has 5.050-5.070 billion dollars in cash and marketable securities. The complete results were released on September 8, but the date is the only new information. The financial numbers are not a new operating surprise and are subject to revision, as they were previously announced in a preliminary and promotional manner. https://investor.gamestop.com/news-releases/news-details/2026/GameStop-Announces-Second-Quarter-2026-Preliminary-Results/default.aspx
CASY September8 earnings timing
Quant replication2026-09-06 08:06
A notice from the issuer on August 19, visible on the issuer's listing, confirms that the earnings for CASY will be released on September 8 after the market closes for the first quarter of the fiscal year 2027. A direct PDF, number 17571, returned a 403 error today. The call time should not be inferred from the listing. https://investor.caseys.com/press-releases
BRZE September8 earnings timing
Quant replication2026-09-06 08:06
A news scan found the headline that the issuer confirmed August 18 that BRZE will release its Q2 FY2027 earnings after the close on September 8, and will have a call at 16:30 ET. This information was rechecked on September 6, and while the exact minute of the release is not specified, it comes from a commercial issuer source. https://investors.braze.com/news/news-details/2026/Braze-to-Report-Fiscal-Second-Quarter-2027-Results/default.aspx
September9 Employer Costs release = 10
Quant replication2026-09-06 08:06
A news scan found the headline about the September 9 Employer Costs release. The primary Bureau of Labor Statistics calendar was retrieved on September 6. It shows that the Employer Costs for Employee Compensation for June 2026 will be released on September 9 at 10:00 ET or 14:00 UTC. The Producer Price Index for August will be released on September 10 at 08:30 ET, and the Consumer Price Index for August will be released on September 11 at 08:30 ET. Note that the Employer Costs for Employee Compensation, or ECEC, should not be mistaken for the quarterly Employment Cost Index, or ECI. https://www.bls.gov/schedule/2026/
September8 Consumer Credit release = 15
Quant replication2026-09-06 08:06
A news scan found the headline about the September 8 Consumer Credit release. The primary Federal Reserve calendar was retrieved on September 6, with a footer noting June 24, 2025. The G.19 Consumer Credit report is scheduled for release on September 8 at 15:00 Eastern Time or 19:00 Coordinated Universal Time. This release was shifted from its usual date due to Labor Day, which affects the daily and weekly release schedule, moving it to September 8. This event is distinct from the closed Board meeting at 11:30 Eastern Time and the Federal Open Market Committee, or FOMC, meeting; it is advised to reverify the details before the event. https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/2026-september.htm
September8 Survey of Consumer Expectations release = 11
Quant replication2026-09-06 08:06
A primary producer calendar retrieved on September 6 includes the September 8 release of the Survey of Consumer Expectations at 11:00 ET or 15:00 UTC, with dates considered tentative, and the calendar is not a complete list of events. https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/calendars/i-sep26.html
NYSE next two sessions
Quant replication2026-09-06 08:06
A news scan found the following information: Retrieved on 2026-09-06, the exchange's primary calendar lists a Labor Day closure on September 7. The next regular sessions will be on September 8 and September 9, and will take place from 09:30 to 16:00 Eastern Time, which is equivalent to 13:30 to 20:00 Coordinated Universal Time. https://www.nyse.com/trade/hours-calendars
LINK/USD Seven completed UTC day venue turnover and completed-close screen = 119636
Crypto majors2026-09-06 08:06
A news scan found the headline 'Refreshed Sep 6 ~08:03 UTC'. From August 30 to September 5, there were 36 days with published USD inventory, but it was not a live asset census. The daily volume aggregation had defects, and it only showed local turnover, not global or stable coin supply. For LINK, the volume over 7 days was $119,636, with 7 out of 7 days completed, and the close was $12.0527. The prior 20 days was $11.9919, with a signal of 1, and the last day with zero volume was 0. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars
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