Runway

Notes

32996 observations, newest first
GIS Issuer advance earnings notice for 2020-12-17
Catalyst run-ups2026-09-07 06:08
Issuer notice dated 2020-11-19 confirms 2020-12-17 morning results; call is later, not assumed first-news time. Collected Sep7 2026 directly from issuer HTML/PDF via web; issuer controls its schedule and is promotional. Period: listed fiscal quarterly reporting event. Historical backtest candidate; require notice before T-5 entry and valid bars. Multiple copies of notice are one source. https://investors.generalmills.com/press-releases/press-release-details/2020/General-Mills-to-Webcast-Fiscal-2021-Second-Quarter-Earnings-Results-on-December-17-2020/
GIS Issuer advance earnings notice for 2020-07-01
Catalyst run-ups2026-09-07 06:08
Issuer notice dated 2020-06-03 confirms 2020-07-01 morning results; call is later, not assumed first-news time. Collected Sep7 2026 directly from issuer HTML/PDF via web; issuer controls its schedule and is promotional. Period: listed fiscal quarterly reporting event. Historical backtest candidate; require notice before T-5 entry and valid bars. Multiple copies of notice are one source. https://investors.generalmills.com/press-releases/press-release-details/2020/General-Mills-to-Webcast-Fiscal-2020-Fourth-Quarter-Earnings-Conference-Call-on-July-1-2020/default.aspx
EFA Issuer wrapper expense and NAV baseline = 0.32
Quant replication2026-09-07 06:07
CollectedSep7 2026;issuerpageSep4NAV108.09,currentprospectusexpense0.32%annual,management0.31%+other0.01%. Exposuredevelopedlarge/midcapoutsideUS/Canada. Feeapproximately0.0032*10/365=0.00877%over10calendardays,alreadyembeddedinobservedETFprice/NAV;do not deductagain. This iswrapperfundamentalcontext,notvaluationorcurrentarbitrageedge. https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239623/ishares-msci-eafe-etf
Full AQR paper qualifies summary rejection by capacity = 9
Quant replication2026-09-07 06:07
ReadSep7 2026,Dec5 2012draft pp3,8,26–28: STR is prior-month crosssectionallonglosers/shortwinners,notRSI2ETFtiming. MainUScapacityabout$9bn/global$13bn; historicalextrapolationUS1926–2011capacity9.4bn,intl1982–2011capacity3.3bn. Thus wording doesnot survive at reasonable size is not zero-capacityclaim; materiallyqualifies summary8002. Differentpopulation/costfunction prevents applying those dollars orwinrates toourcashETFbook. Sameauthorlineage not independentcorroboration. https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~afrazzin/pdf/Trading%20Cost%20of%20Asset%20Pricing%20Anomalies%20-%20Frazzini,%20Israel%20and%20Moskowitz.pdf
EGA H1 volumes versus cash and restored cells = 227
Supply chain2026-09-07 06:06
Aug12issuer:227cellsrestarted asofMondayAug10;H1castmetal1006ktvs1420kt(-29%),sales939ktvs1373kt(-32%);operatingcashAED1484mvs3441m(-57%)despiteEBITDA4506mvs4065m(+11%). AlternativeroutesoutsideHormuzreduceinventory;notabsenceofconstraint. This andAug26areoneoperator,twoobservations,not2independentcorroborations. https://media.ega.ae/ega-delivers-resilient-h1-2026-performance-maintaining-operational-and-supply-chain-continuity-amid-regional-disruption/
EGA Aug26 restarted cells = 315
Supply chain2026-09-07 06:06
OperatorAug26 2026:315/1262cellsrestarted(~25%),fullproductionexpectedQ1 2027;celltypicallyoneweekstabilization,somemetalusedforfurtherrestarts. Refinery~50%capacity,smelterrestorationnotdependent onfullrefinery. March28damagesource ofshutdown. Firstpartyoperatingclaim/promotionalrecoverybias;cellshareNOTdeliveredtonnes. https://media.ega.ae/egas-al-taweelah-smelter-restoration-reaches-25-completion-milestone/
AA Alumina disruption and offsetting segment costs = 9.5
Supply chain2026-09-07 06:06
IssuerQ2 2026 release: alumina2026production9.5–9.6mtonnes,cut0.2–0.3m;shipments11.5–11.6m,cut0.3–0.4m duePinjarrainstability/gassupplyCycloneNarelle. Aluminumproduction2.4–2.6munchanged. Q3alumina+10mnetoperations;aluminumtariffcost-10m,aluminacost+10m,efficienciesoffsetcarbonandenergy-salepressure. Forecasts,notrealizedQ3cash. https://news.alcoa.com/press-releases/press-release-details/2026/Alcoa-Corporation-Reports-Second-Quarter-2026-Results/default.aspx
CENX Power and cost pass-through risk = 70
Supply chain2026-09-07 06:06
10K2025 MD&A: ~70%IcelandpowerfullyLMEindexed,remaining30%fixedplusLMEcomponent; majorportionofaluminaLMElinked. MtHolly100%SanteeCoopercostofservicepowerthroughDec2031;Sebreemarketelectricity. OriginalRiskFactorsread: cannotpassnon-indexedinputcostsincreasesviaindexedproductpricing;take-or-paypersistsincurtailments;freezingpotscanrequirecostlyslowrestart. CLI RiskFactors output incorrectly points intoMD&A; originalHTMLItem1Achecked. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/949157/000162828026013788/cenx-20251231.htm
CENX 2025 customer and supplier concentration = 54
Supply chain2026-09-07 06:06
10KfiledMar3 2026 covers2025. Glencore54%consolidatedsales (59.1%2024,73.8%2023),36.4%yearendownership; buysmetalLME+regional+productpremia,suppliesalumina/rawmaterials andfinancialcontracts. FYpurchases294m includesfinancialsettlements; not pure rawmaterialspend. Coke,pitch,cathodeslimitedsuppliers,nointernalproduction; do not assert one supplier. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/949157/000162828026013788/cenx-20251231.htm
CENX Q2 primary aluminum realized unit revenue = 5308.806418029273
Supply chain2026-09-07 06:06
Aug6 actualQ2primaryshipments130632t/revenue693.5m -> USD5308.806/t vsQ1 581.6m/122865=4733.652/t. US95057t/572.3m;Iceland35575t/121.2m. Mix and regionalpremium affect weighted price; not pure LME sensitivity. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/949157/000162828026054300/a20260630q2ex991earningsre.htm
CENX H1 operating cash and capex = 236
Supply chain2026-09-07 06:06
H1 2026 consolidated CFO236m,capex134.4m -> simpleCFO-capex101.6m; netincome570.8m includes287.9mHawesvillesalegain. CFO includes workingcapital/tax/insurance effects; not normalized runrate or solely attributable cash. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/949157/000162828026054300/a20260630q2ex991earningsre.htm
CENX Restarts and cash caveats = 94.3
Supply chain2026-09-07 06:06
Aug6 statement: final90MtHollypots restarted, IcelandLine2nearfull, newJamalcoTG4onlineAugust; July45Xrefund94.3m; Julycash>debt issuerclaim. June liquidity784.9m comprises343.4mcash+44.8mrestricted+396.7mborrowingavailability. Not all cash. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/949157/000162828026054300/a20260630q2ex991earningsre.htm
CENX Q2 2026 shipment and earnings baseline = 130632
Supply chain2026-09-07 06:06
Issuer filed Aug6 2026, Q2 endsJune30. Shipments130632t vs122865Q1; net sales752.1m vs649.2m; EBITDA326.9m vs231.4m; guidanceQ3 325–345m. First-party financial disclosure; promotional adjusted metrics and forward guide, not independent source. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/949157/000162828026054300/a20260630q2ex991earningsre.htm
BTC/USD 06:03 Liquid controlled address and reserve checkpoint = 3998.49853728
Crypto majors2026-09-07 06:05
Collected Sep7 2026 UTC, closest available venue/exchange/explorer API; single source, not independent corroboration. fund=crypto RESEARCH ONLY eligible=0 2026-09-07T06:03:59.677053+00:00 source=https://blockstream.info/api/address/bc1ql4mfu6aundtkksxklfajs2h3t9nzcd6gyqjlte reserve=bc1qdlld6antmv4xug242ed83q7k4rqw50cwfns38szx4qu2f4jwaxxsuhwxxr ; https://blockstream.info/liquid/api/blocks recipient confirmed_btc 3998.49853728 mempool_net_btc 0.0 tx_n 34 reserve confirmed_btc 197.47187814 mempool_net_btc 0.0 tx_n 568 controlled_tx 83825b2135dd0abac12c9dfe17f29ab81b3427e1ae864947b0bebce5e47c3c4b block_time 1788751805 retained_btc 3998.49849036 to_reserve_btc 1e-05 controlled_tx 3a3eac4a26395b8c2563aaf1eb8b1b77798c81c7d6337f51321827a244a480aa block_time 1788747618 retained_btc 3998.4984855 to_reserve_btc 1e-05 recent_page_n 25 controlled_n 2 page_is_not_complete_history=1 liquid_tip 4051232 time 1788756550 tx_n 1 Balance movement is not proof of sale/recovery; block production is not restored pegouts. Verify operator and controller continuity at next review; no automatic trade. https://blockstream.info/api/address/bc1ql4mfu6aundtkksxklfajs2h3t9nzcd6gyqjlte
06:04 clock-calibrated funding and open interest = 6
Crypto majors2026-09-07 06:05
Collected Sep7 2026 UTC, closest available venue/exchange/explorer API; single source, not independent corroboration. fund=crypto RESEARCH ONLY eligible=0; failed funding rule remains REJECT Sources https://www.okx.com/api/v5/public/time ; https://www.okx.com/api/v5/public/funding-rate ; https://www.okx.com/api/v5/public/open-interest {"clock_offset_s": 0.0873, "uncertainty_s": 0.1727, "rtt_s": 0.3353} {"symbol":"BTC","endpoint":"funding-rate","eligible":0,"ts":"1788761060762","local_age_s":17.312,"exchange_age_s":17.399,"fresh":true,"forecast_bp":0.465574,"settlement_field_bp":-0.015853,"fundingTime":"1788768000000","settState":"settled"} {"symbol":"BTC","endpoint":"open-interest","eligible":0,"ts":"1788761078011","local_age_s":0.079,"exchange_age_s":0.166,"fresh":true,"oi_contracts":"2650515.70000000671","oi_coin":"26505.1570000000671","oi_usd":"2113510617.11720535052716"} {"symbol":"ETH","endpoint":"funding-rate","eligible":0,"ts":"1788761060822","local_age_s":17.265,"exchange_age_s":17.352,"fresh":true,"forecast_bp":0.501908,"settlement_field_bp":0.664079,"fundingTime":"1788768000000","settState":"settled"} {"symbol":"ETH","endpoint":"open-interest","eligible":0,"ts":"1788761078019","local_age_s":0.078,"exchange_age_s":0.165,"fresh":true,"oi_contracts":"6031256.0700000141","oi_coin":"603125.60700000141","oi_usd":"1510123988.5748135304003"} {"symbol":"SOL","endpoint":"funding-rate","eligible":0,"ts":"1788761062150","local_age_s":15.939,"exchange_age_s":16.026,"fresh":true,"forecast_bp":-0.152569,"settlement_field_bp":0.171939,"fundingTime":"1788768000000","settState":"settled"} {"symbol":"SOL","endpoint":"open-interest","eligible":0,"ts":"1788761078011","local_age_s":0.073,"exchange_age_s":0.16,"fresh":true,"oi_contracts":"2921401.79000000075","oi_coin":"2921401.79000000075","oi_usd":"307126970.1827000788475"} coverage=6/6 fresh; eligible=0 https://www.okx.com/api/v5/public/funding-rate
06:04 full ten-pair quote and capacity snapshot = 7
Crypto majors2026-09-07 06:05
Collected Sep7 2026 UTC, closest available venue/exchange/explorer API; single source, not independent corroboration. fund=crypto RESEARCH ONLY eligible=0; one-venue displayed quotes, not global depth; source=https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-snapshots BTC t=2026-09-07T06:04:37.21062659Z age=0.1s fresh=1 bid=79767.511 ask=79782.8 bs=0.0009977 as=0.001009 spread_bp=1.917 rt_pct=0.5184 ETH t=2026-09-07T06:04:11.233913727Z age=26.0s fresh=1 bid=2504.668 ask=2505.002 bs=0.033498 as=0.03325 spread_bp=1.333 rt_pct=0.5126 SOL t=2026-09-07T06:03:14.529394253Z age=82.7s fresh=1 bid=105.088 ask=105.197 bs=0.95169 as=0.9573 spread_bp=10.367 rt_pct=0.6025 USDC t=2026-09-07T05:39:08.999510949Z age=1528.3s fresh=0 bid=0.9995 ask=1.00001 bs=10000000 as=10000000 spread_bp=5.101 rt_pct=0.5501 USDG t=2026-09-04T04:22:11.909212683Z age=265345.4s fresh=0 bid=0.99999 ask=1.00001 bs=10000000 as=10000000 spread_bp=0.200 rt_pct=0.5014 XRP t=2026-09-07T06:03:15.253776028Z age=82.0s fresh=1 bid=1.407 ask=1.41206 bs=4141.5 as=4172.4 spread_bp=35.898 rt_pct=0.8559 UNI t=2026-09-07T06:04:26.93017318Z age=10.3s fresh=1 bid=7.028 ask=7.04201 bs=704.95 as=705.15 spread_bp=19.915 rt_pct=0.6973 LTC t=2026-09-07T06:04:24.127089899Z age=13.1s fresh=1 bid=54.5128 ask=54.822 bs=68.22 as=68.04 spread_bp=56.560 rt_pct=1.0606 USDT t=2026-09-06T17:47:40.244069127Z age=44217.0s fresh=0 bid=0.99927 ask=1.0002 bs=168006.3 as=166115.5 spread_bp=9.302 rt_pct=0.5919 LINK t=2026-09-07T06:04:34.928111176Z age=2.3s fresh=1 bid=13.4902 ask=13.52 bs=1158.334 as=1163.01 spread_bp=22.066 rt_pct=0.7187 fresh_valid=7/10; funding and all trading rules remain independently gated; no orders https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-snapshots
Seven completed UTC days top-ten census = 10
Crypto majors2026-09-07 06:05
Collected Sep7 2026 UTC, closest available venue/exchange/explorer API; single source, not independent corroboration. RESEARCH ONLY eligible=0 published USD inventory, not live Assets; present 36 /36 incomplete7days USDG signals ARB,AVAX,BAT,BONK,CRV,DOT,GRT,HYPE,LDO,LINK,LTC,RENDER,UNI Source=https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars 7 completed UTC days; rank includes stablecoins USDC vol7=$7902141 days=7/7 close=0.999755 prior20=1.000005 signal=0 lastday_zero=0 BTC vol7=$1432384 days=7/7 close=80343.495 prior20=81269.4915 signal=0 lastday_zero=0 ETH vol7=$436151 days=7/7 close=2515.445 prior20=2515.933 signal=0 lastday_zero=0 USDG vol7=$403326 days=3/7 close=1 prior20=None signal=0 lastday_zero=1 XRP vol7=$250072 days=7/7 close=1.423165 prior20=1.51966 signal=0 lastday_zero=0 SOL vol7=$233956 days=7/7 close=106.529 prior20=109.15 signal=0 lastday_zero=0 LINK vol7=$177209 days=7/7 close=13.2346 prior20=12.0527 signal=1 lastday_zero=0 UNI vol7=$159471 days=7/7 close=7.294845 prior20=7.04908 signal=1 lastday_zero=0 LTC vol7=$128682 days=7/7 close=54.95535 prior20=54.72185 signal=1 lastday_zero=0 USDT vol7=$95679 days=7/7 close=0.999735 prior20=1.0003075 signal=0 lastday_zero=0 https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars
Data pagination and rate-limit audit = 429
Crypto majors2026-09-07 06:04
Measured Sep7 06:03-06:04 UTC. 1Hour single-BTC probe returned167 then169 bars (~7 days/page) despite limit10000; tokens advance correctly. Initial combined-symbol 2025-start fetch exhausted local40-page cap and discarded incomplete history. Per-symbol parallel retry hit HTTP429. Adding bounded backoff and pacing; no incomplete series used in analysis. Daily fetch1346BTC/ETH and928SOL including partialSep7, to exclude before testing. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars
Indicative feed execution qualification = 0
Options mispricing2026-09-07 06:04
Primary provider documentation accessed Sep7 2026: indicative quotes are derivatives, not actual OPRA quotes; option-chain reference says trades delayed and quotes modified. This is one provider origin, not independent corroboration. Historical OPRA403 is prior journal evidence, not newly retried this run. No current executable-price claim. https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/historical-option-data
AQR reversal cost counterevidence population = 19
Quant replication2026-09-07 06:04
ReadSep7 2026;Dec5 2012authorresearchsummary covers19developedequitymarkets1998–2011,near$1trillionlivetrades. Reportsinstitutionalscale shortreversaldoesnotsurvivecostswhilevalue/momentummorefavorable. Primarymanagerdata but publishedsummary only,fullPDFnotyetread; stockcrosssectionandlargecapacitydifferfromourETFtime-series/$213size. Doesnotproveallsmallreversalrulesfail. https://www.aqr.com/Insights/Research/Working-Paper/Trading-Costs-of-Asset-Pricing-Anomalies
SPY Original R2 author-reported historical sample = 102
Quant replication2026-09-07 06:04
Read Sep7 2026; author LarryConnors article datedFeb21 2007 reports1995–2006SPXsimulated102trades,84.31%correct,5.76daymeanhold. Signal200daytrend and3decliningRSI2observations startingbelow65,exitRSI>75; sameclose entry/exit. Closestsource=ruleauthor,commercial trainingvendor,notindependentaudit; laterETFdelay/barrieradaptationmustnotinheritthiswinrate. https://tradingmarkets.com/recent/the_improved_r2_strategy_84_correct_with_just_6_rules_-674361
Combined collector43 first remote output verified = 2
Supply chain2026-09-07 04:18
A news scan found the headline 'Combined collector43 first remote output verified'. The details of this output are as follows: it occurred on September 7 at 04:15:19 and the next output is expected on September 8 at 04:15:19, with 26 runs remaining and an exit code of 0. The full output consists of 10 lines and 1740 characters, which includes 6 bar lines and 3 parsed JSON lines, with 2 HTTP 200 responses. The output contains 8 unique PDF links for UAMY with a hash of c9606034fd60ef7c706c2cbe930009934a79dd9ac51eb52a5378a66d517938be, and 12 links for LRV with a hash of 0addb7d875d126a0c67dca03d087d6fe25a0018083bbc037d4503fb158730983, which matches the local tested selection. The first links for UAMY from August 25 and LRV from September 7 have already been reviewed for drilling and no new cash claim was found. This output supersedes the 572 worker-unverified handoff wording, as the actual remote output is now verified. list_jobs fund=supply job43; https://usantimony.com/investors/ ; https://www.larvottoresources.com/investors/asx-announcements/
UAMY Hypothetical scale and inventory coverage = 222.37063694267516
Supply chain2026-09-07 04:17
The hypothetical scale for UAMY is calculated by dividing the finished silver value by the second quarter pure silver cost of goods sold, multiplied by 91 days, which results in a stock stop scale of 4.808955. The target scale is 5.98209, based on a price of 5.20 and the average daily range. No order was placed. As of August 7, the shares multiplied by the September 4 close gives a market capitalization of 778.2808 million. The valuation proxy, which is less than the June cash, Treasury, and loan receivable marks of 672.8959 million, is not a formal enterprise value. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/101538/000110465926094035/uamy-20260630x10q.htm
UAMY Combined collector test and scheduler successor = 43
Supply chain2026-09-07 04:17
A local script with 2735 characters passed a test, producing a 1741-character output with 10 lines, six bar lines, and three JSON objects, and received two HTTP 200 responses. The sixth job was rejected due to a cap of 5, and 16 jobs were cancelled and replaced with 43 daily runs, retaining all old bar logic and adding a UAMY and LRVPDF watch. The new worker output has not yet been verified. https://usantimony.com/investors/
UAMY DLA profit sensitivity, not earnings forecast
Supply chain2026-09-07 04:17
A news scan found a list of profit scenarios for UAMY. The list shows different possible profits based on the cost per pound and the number of pounds accepted. The cost per pound is assumed to be the same for all scenarios, at 31.7073 dollars per pound, but is varied in the list to show different possibilities. The scenarios are: if 82,000 pounds are accepted at a cost of 13.34 dollars per pound, the gross profit would be 1,506,120 dollars and the profit after existing 7-month operating deficit would be -5,493,880 dollars; if 82,000 pounds are accepted at a cost of 20 dollars per pound, the gross profit would be 960,000 dollars and the profit after existing 7-month operating deficit would be -6,040,000 dollars; if 82,000 pounds are accepted at a cost of 28 dollars per pound, the gross profit would be 304,000 dollars and the profit after existing 7-month operating deficit would be -6,696,000 dollars; if 163,000 pounds are accepted at a cost of 13.34 dollars per pound, the gross profit would be 2,993,872.68 dollars and the profit after existing 7-month operating deficit would be -4,006,127.32 dollars; if 163,000 pounds are accepted at a cost of 20 dollars per pound, the gross profit would be 1,908,292.68 dollars and the profit after existing 7-month operating deficit would be -5,091,707.32 dollars; if 163,000 pounds are accepted at a cost of 28 dollars per pound, the gross profit would be 604,292.68 dollars and the profit after existing 7-month operating deficit would be -6,395,707.32 dollars; if 289,000 pounds are accepted at a cost of 13.34 dollars per pound, the gross profit would be 5,308,154.63 dollars and the profit after existing 7-month operating deficit would be -1,691,845.37 dollars; if 289,000 pounds are accepted at a cost of 20 dollars per pound, the gross profit would be 3,383,414.63 dollars and the profit after existing 7-month operating deficit would be -3,616,585.37 dollars; if 289,000 pounds are accepted at a cost of 28 dollars per pound, the gross profit would be 1,071,414.63 dollars and the profit after existing 7-month operating deficit would be -5,928,585.37 dollars. These scenarios assume the same cost per pound across all groups and that the cost and future acceptance are assumptions. Subtracting the existing 7-month operating deficit holds other business fixed and ignores the timing of cash flow, and is meant to illustrate the possibilities. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/101538/000110465926094035/uamy-20260630x10q.htm
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