Runway

Notes

7310 observations, newest first
KMT R91302 FY26 pricing versus cash = -79
Supply chain2026-09-13 02:06
On August 5, the issuer of KMT R91302, with a fiscal year ending on June 30, reported a free cash flow of negative 79 million US dollars and an operating cash flow of negative 4 million US dollars. In the fourth quarter, revenue was 737 million US dollars, with an operating profit of 303 million US dollars, which included 252 million US dollars from favorable raw material price and cost timing. For the fiscal year 2027, the company is guiding that its free cash flow will be 20 percent of its adjusted net income. The management's comments were primarily promotional, but did not provide a sustainable margin inference. https://investors.kennametal.com/node/28606
CNQ R91300 CLI diagnostic frozen output = 23.105282985884124
Supply chain2026-09-13 00:23
A news scan found the headline 'CNQ R91300 CLI diagnostic frozen output'. This is a data line showing the results of a trading strategy. It includes the following information: the strategy had 1439 bars and 106 trades, with a return of 23.10528299 percent, a drawdown of 21.27172619 percent, a win rate of 39.62264151 percent, and a buy and hold return of 104.15986949 percent. The average trade was 0.227036349 percent. The strategy was run for 2100 days, with a breakout of 20, a stop loss of 6 percent, and a target of 18 percent. The strategy used a different signal to exit, and the cost was not included in the diagnostic for the IEX, which was not held out in the 3R strategy. A required CLI was consulted, but it was not trusted for execution. The data line also mentions that on days 3030 and 3031, a separate SIP was used for all costed train and holdout sets. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=CNQ&timeframe=1Day&feed=iex
CNQ R91300 reproduction manifest final corrected script and bar vintage = 10092
Supply chain2026-09-13 00:23
A list of files was found, including collect.mjs with 1794 bytes and a sha256 identifier of e6d43875042715a84808aa65cc05f209b35ae017b8a2111fd37c8c4056fd4f8e, test_cnq.py with 4115 bytes and a sha256 identifier of f4afa5966560bc3afe7585f2dc6e086b215ca94b2b1e5ea63e95583cd20ecbee, daily.json with 1038836 bytes and a sha256 identifier of 5c0d916fdf53dd43fc7853dbccf54fb73338f363c9de99a26f6bce812277c166, test_results.json with 8143 bytes and a sha256 identifier of c4884f7d2c540b74f31a5d9edf6dfc3577bd4e830f050803ab95a09d229325d4, cnq_trades.json with 40487 bytes and a sha256 identifier of 3b6e3fafa9d5fb65c4acfea575469d82d212565400e37070b3756113878b3aa5, cnq_cli.json with 18963 bytes and a sha256 identifier of d1f91c18af1818096b1fda4d95b381d139d537b720ba1e1fa6014a877a36e794, stats.py with 2555 bytes and a sha256 identifier of cc376c6661e0261b258c5a41f8bdaa8d3d79f7f47aed328c55c540fc251c779f, stats.json with 2843 bytes and a sha256 identifier of e8ecac1d24bab8e7a0d8bdcef18bc4bf3454d0f62312ab0039ea6f9ee03d2ea7, and collector.sh with 2867 bytes and a sha256 identifier of f36762449fc759849b56c343b0a4d0ec4c080f25fe779e8093e1563606a17739. The data covers 6 symbols and 1682 rows from January 2, 2020 to September 11, 2020. The sha256 identifier is used to identify this vintage of data, with no claim that local files will persist outside of the workspace. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
R91300 supply ledgers and collector acceptance = 0
Supply chain2026-09-13 00:22
A query of trades was made at 00:21:51 UTC for the supply fund, showing statuses of open, pending, and closing for all items. The current cash value is 170.20. A list of jobs shows that 250 new items were accepted, with the next run scheduled for 00:21:09, but the last run had a null output at 00:21:52, so a remote pass should not be claimed. There were 18 items last processed on September 12 at 05:16 with an exit code of 0, and 214 items were processed on October 10 at 04:31 with an END status of 10/10. Additionally, 243 items were processed on September 12 at 13:31 with an exit code of 0, which included an AI.PA 403 error due to a MOFCOM timeout, resulting in partial coverage. 236 items were cancelled after 23:16 with an END status of 3/3 and were replaced by 250 local items with a pass status of 6/6. All 5 active items were run through a review on February 2, and a manual search for new SPA articles is still needed. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev
CNQ R91300 royalty offsets and hedge policy = 19
Supply chain2026-09-13 00:21
On August 6, the Q2 Management's Discussion and Analysis reported that liquids royalties were 19% of product sales, compared to 13% in Q2 2025, as rising prices increased the government's take. The company's policy allows for hedging 60% of production for the next 12 months and 40% for months 13-24, but this is not the actual percentage of oil that is hedged. A financial note lists the company's exposures to gas and foreign exchange, but it does not assume that all future crude oil production will be unhedged. On the same day, a press release announced a dividend of C$0.625, with a record date of September 11 and a payment date of October 2, noting that the record date has already passed and there is no assumed entitlement for buyers on the following Monday or unverified ex-date. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1017413/000101741326000043/a06302026q2mda.htm
CNQ R91300 CNQ valuation sensitivity = 56.364
Supply chain2026-09-13 00:17
A news scan found the headline 'CNQ R91300 CNQ valuation sensitivity'. The data provided includes the following information: the annualized first half simple free cash flow in Canadian dollars is 11,044 million. The foreign exchange rate assumed is 1.38 Canadian dollars per US dollar. The US dollar free cash flow per share is 3.85. The price at an 8 percent yield is 48.14, at a 10 percent yield is 38.51, and at a 12 percent yield is 32.10. The technical 3R target is 56.36. The yield at the technical target is 6.83 percent. The sulphur Q2 net revenue percentage of operating cash flow is 3.96 percent. The foreign exchange and yields are assumed, not observed. The net revenue and operating cash flow scale is not attribution. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1017413/000101741326000043/a06302026q2fs.htm
CNQ R91300 Own forced liquidation returns and initial R = 2
Supply chain2026-09-13 00:17
A news scan found the following data line: a list of trades including the symbol FRO, which was bought at 44.49 and sold at 46.182917, and the symbol STNG, which was bought at 79.76 and sold at 80.36. The data also mentions all September 4 operator liquidation, and that neither stop nor target was reached, with no arrival quotes for slippage, and IDs 6 and 3. query_trades?fund=supply
CNQ R91300 CNQ20-trade Monte Carlo and size = 21.27475
Supply chain2026-09-13 00:17
A news scan found the following data line: a simulation with 20000 paths, seed 91300, and a 5% frequency 30% gap subjective stress. The simulation results are as follows: for a stress called IID base with a notional value of 85.099, the percentages at the 5th, 50th, and 95th percentiles are -4.651482606192092, 1.5880662073952, and 9.035543421364443, the 95th percentile drawdown is 6.257093669527773, and the loss odds percentage is 35.010000000000005. For the same stress with a notional value of 21.27475, the percentages at the 5th, 50th, and 95th percentiles are -1.1804058199285594, 0.4053952105329772, and 2.1986342161692174, the 95th percentile drawdown is 1.6067834761731041, and the loss odds percentage is 34.565. For a stress called 5pct 30pct gap with a notional value of 85.099, the percentages at the 5th, 50th, and 95th percentiles are -9.375531754865014, -1.44231505026704, and 6.896598239352246, the 95th percentile drawdown is 10.771711743688556, and the loss odds percentage is 61.11. For the same stress with a notional value of 21.27475, the percentages at the 5th, 50th, and 95th percentiles are -2.3898787943657998, -0.3173726528101828, and 1.7415138761412505, the 95th percentile drawdown is 2.7684710816895075, and the loss odds percentage is 59.815. The size calculations are: half Kelly is 0.03319492145569669, full is 85.099, quarter is 21.27475, reference stop is 47.972, reference target is 56.364, quarter stop risk is 0.8914404933093668, and quarter gap 30 risk is 6.3824250000000005. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
CNQ R91300 CNQ factor regression and trade mean uncertainty = 0.7702055379598448
Supply chain2026-09-13 00:17
A regression analysis of the CNQ factor from 2025-01-01 to 2026-09-11 found a correlation of 0.17238230857929665 with FRO and 0.7702055379598448 with XLE. The beta values were 1.0132884565243243 for XLE and -0.027295797935479333 for SPY, with a daily intercept of 2.9232798636735047 basis points. The R2 value was 0.5934153739086543. A bootstrap analysis with 20000 iterations and seed 91300 was also performed. The results included two scenarios: one starting on 2021-01-01 with 30 iterations, a mean percentage change of 0.8848959297408714, and a 95% confidence interval of -2.2398027078632134 to 4.26692195716264, with 13 stop, 5 gap stop, 7 target, 1 gap target, and 4 time reasons; and one starting on 2025-01-01 with 11 iterations, a mean percentage change of 1.4938957563595323, and a 95% confidence interval of -2.9574924806736815 to 6.535047740346908, with 5 stop, 2 gap stop, 1 target, 2 gap target, and 1 time reasons. This analysis used ordinary least squares, which describes but does not identify causal relationships. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
CNQ R91300 CNQ audit results: L/start/slip/return/DD/win/N/open/mean/avgwin/avgloss/Kelly = 15.363909162226683
Supply chain2026-09-13 00:17
A data scan found the following results for CNQ audit: the results are presented in a list of trading performance metrics, including start, slip, return, drawdown, win, and other values, for different dates and parameters. The list includes the following entries: [[20, 2021-01-01, 5, 15.661599, 44.135278, 33.333333, 30, 0, 0.884896, 13.328785, -5.337049, 0.033195], [20, 2021-01-01, 15, 8.925985, 45.569043, 33.333333, 30, 0, 0.683328, 13.102354, -5.526185, 0.026077], [20, 2025-01-01, 5, 15.363909, 18.477442, 36.363636, 11, 1, 1.493896, 11.827457, -4.410996, 0.063154], [20, 2025-01-01, 15, 12.74093, 18.802881, 36.363636, 11, 1, 1.291111, 11.604025, -4.601984, 0.055632], [10, 2021-01-01, 5, 0.537496, 50.44652, 31.578947, 38, 0, 0.394977, 12.856967, -5.35671, 0.01536], [10, 2021-01-01, 15, -6.820227, 52.721699, 31.578947, 38, 0, 0.194388, 12.631478, -5.545808, 0.007695], [10, 2025-01-01, 5, 20.974313, 23.709471, 38.461538, 13, 1, 1.712472, 11.851635, -4.624505, 0.072246], [10, 2025-01-01, 15, 17.751822, 24.165844, 38.461538, 13, 1, 1.50925, 11.628155, -4.815066, 0.064896], [40, 2021-01-01, 5, 4.64168, 40.181446, 29.62963, 27, 0, 0.558656, 14.273054, -5.215827, 0.01957], [40, 2021-01-01, 15, -0.859119, 41.891331, 29.62963, 27, 0, 0.35774, 14.044736, -5.405206, 0.012736], [40, 2025-01-01, 5, -7.813116, 26.717565, 20, 10, 1, -0.959828, 14.525495, -4.831159, 0], [40, 2025-01-01, 15, -9.728767, 27.5917, 20, 10, 1, -1.157711, 14.296672, -5.021306, 0]]. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
FRO R91300 completed daily indicators; supersedes empty26560 = 49.21
Supply chain2026-09-13 00:15
A news scan found the data line for FRO, which is a stock symbol. The data is from September 11, 2026, and it shows the stock closed at 49.21. The prior 20-day average, not including the current close, was 48.4. The simple moving average, or sma, over 50 days was 40.85. The average daily range, or adr, over 20 days was 1.35, which is the mean of the high and low prices. The average true range, or atr, over 20 days was 1.55, which includes gaps in price. The return over 20 days was 21.45 percent and the volume over 60 days was 45.54 percent. The minimum gap percentage historically since 2020 was -14.43 percent, which is not a prediction of future prices. This data was collected from September 13, 2020, to September 11, 2026, and it replaces previous data. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=FRO&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all
CNQ R91300 completed daily indicators; supersedes empty26560 = 50.07
Supply chain2026-09-13 00:15
A news scan found the data line for CNQ, which shows the following information: the symbol is CNQ, the number of observations is 1682, the date is September 11, 2026, the closing price is 50.07, the prior 20-day average is 51.33, the 50-day simple moving average, or sma, which is a calculation of the average price over a certain period, is 46.4478, the average daily range, or adr, which is a measure of the average difference between the high and low prices over a certain period, is 1.049, the average true range, or atr, which is a measure of the average range of prices over a certain period and includes gaps, is 1.2165, there is no entry, the 20-day return percentage is 6.17, and the 60-day volume percentage is 31.44. The data was collected from September 13, 2020 to September 11, 2026, and it is noted that the prior 20-day average excludes the current close, the average daily range is the mean of the high and low prices, and the average true range includes gaps. The minimum gap percentage is -26.94, which is a historical value from 2020 and later, and is not a probability or prediction of future events. This data replaces the previous placeholder 26560. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=CNQ&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all
AA R91300 completed daily indicators; supersedes empty26560 = 48.26
Supply chain2026-09-13 00:15
A daily indicators report for the symbol AA was completed on September 11, 2026. The report shows the stock closed at 48.26, with a prior 20-day average of 51.85 and a 50-day simple moving average, or sma50, of 48.526. The average daily range, or adr20, was 1.9549500000000009, and the average true range, or atr20, which includes gaps, was 2.1931900000000004. The entry signal is false, meaning no action is recommended. The return over the last 20 days was -2.6819923371647625 percent, and the volume over the last 60 days was 49.47756252203293 percent of the total. The minimum gap percentage, which is the largest price jump, was -13.246514075243365 percent. The prior 20-day average excludes the current close price. The average daily range is the mean of the high and low prices. The average true range includes gaps in the price. The minimum gap is a historical value from 2020 and later, and is not a prediction of future prices. This report replaces a previous empty report, number 26560, and was collected from September 13, 2020, to September 11, 2026. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=AA&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all
XLE R91300 completed daily indicators; supersedes empty26560 = 65.14
Supply chain2026-09-13 00:15
A news scan found the data line for XLE, which is a stock symbol. The data shows that on September 11, 2026, the closing price was 65.14. The prior 20-day average, not including the current close, was 65.31. The 50-day simple moving average, which is a calculation of the average price over 50 days, was 60.1392. The average daily range, or ADR, which is the mean of the high and low prices, over 20 days was 1.0219749999999999. The average true range, or ATR, which includes gaps, over 20 days was 1.1464750000000006. There was no entry, or trading signal, given. The return over 20 days was 6.681952178185391 percent. The volatility over 60 days was 20.616197036231906 percent. The minimum gap, which is the difference between the current price and the previous price, as a percentage, was -17.516902274124156 percent. This data was collected from September 13, 2020, to September 11, 2026, and replaces previous data. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=XLE&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all
STNG R91300 completed daily indicators; supersedes empty26560 = 84.52
Supply chain2026-09-13 00:15
A news scan found the data line for STNG, which is a stock symbol, with the following information: it completed daily indicators on September 11, 2026. The data includes a close price of 84.52, a prior 20-day average of 84.51, a 50-day simple moving average, or sma, of 77.9266, an average daily range, or adr, of 2.001845, and an average true range, or atr, which includes gaps, of 2.12285. The entry signal is true, the 20-day return percentage is 8.23408887181456, and the 60-day volume percentage is 35.0297710440498. The minimum gap percentage, which is not a probability or future prediction, is -10.869565217391308. This data was collected from September 13, 2020 to September 11, 2026, and supersedes empty26560. The prior 20-day average excludes the current close price, the average daily range is the mean of high and low prices, and the average true range includes gaps. The minimum gap is a historical value from 2020 and later, and is not a prediction of future events. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=STNG&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all
SPY R91300 completed daily indicators; supersedes empty26560 = 764.29
Supply chain2026-09-13 00:15
A news scan found the data line for the symbol SPY, which is a type of stock market index fund, with the following information: the number of data points, N, is 1682, the date is September 11, 2026, the closing price is 764.29, the prior 20-day average is 777.88, the 50-day simple moving average, which is a calculation of the average price over a period of time, is 758.62, the average daily range, or ADR, which measures the average difference between the high and low prices over 20 days, is 4.24, and the average true range, or ATR, which measures the average range of prices including gaps, is 5.45. The entry signal is false, meaning no action is recommended, the 20-day return percentage is -1.75, and the 60-day volatility percentage is 11.89. The minimum gap percentage, which measures the largest price jump, is -10.74. This data was collected from September 13, 2020, to September 11, 2026, and supersedes the previous empty data set 26560. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=SPY&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all
CNQ R91300 corrected CNQ annual buyer concentration = 2
Supply chain2026-09-13 00:14
A correction has been made to the CNQ annual buyer concentration, which was previously reported as R91300. This correction replaces the concentration gap reported in note 26559. The full 2025 annual financial report includes a credit risk passage that confirms there are two major customers, one from 2024 and three from 2023, who are international energy companies with investment-grade credit ratings, and each of these customers accounts for more than 10% of annual sales. The expected credit loss for receivables is approximately 2%. The identities of the buyers and their individual shares are not specified. The fact that the geography is outside of the Middle East does not eliminate the concentration of energy buyers, so the original record will be kept rather than assuming diversification. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1017413/000101741326000018/cnq-20251231.htm
R91300 six-name completed SIP indicator table = 1682
Supply chain2026-09-13 00:13
A news scan found the headline 'R91300 six-name completed SIP indicator table'. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=CNQ,FRO,STNG,AA,SPY,XLE&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all
CNQ R91300 CNQ heavy-oil and transport exposure annual risks = 27
Supply chain2026-09-13 00:13
As of March 26, 2026, Canadian Natural Resources, or CNQ, has a 40F report that includes its 2025 Annual Information Form, which shows that 27% of its 2025 production is heavy oil and bitumen from places like Pelican Lake. This type of oil is of lower quality, and the cost of transporting it can reduce the price that CNQ gets compared to international prices. There are risks to CNQ, including tariffs, problems with facilities owned by other companies, and declines in oil prices that could leave CNQ with unused long-term transport commitments. Also, most of CNQ's customers are in the energy industry, but the exact percentage of sales to a single buyer or supplier is not provided in the reviewed information. Additionally, the production from different geographic locations should not be considered independent of the overall demand for oil. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1017413/000101741326000018/cnq-20251231.htm
CNQ R91300 CNQ sulphur and operating bottleneck cash = 270
Supply chain2026-09-13 00:13
On August 6, Canadian Natural Resources, or CNQ, reported its second quarter results. The company's sulphur business had net revenue of $270 per tonne, with a total of $1,450 per tonne. Management estimated that CNQ supplies about 30% of Canada's sulphur and 2% of the world's sulphur. The company also reported record oilsands mining production of 625,000 barrels per day, with 106% upgrader utilization. The operating cost was $22.19 per barrel in Canadian dollars, and the premium for synthetic crude oil over West Texas Intermediate, or SCO-WTI, was $8.37 per barrel in US dollars, resulting in a segment netback of approximately $78 per barrel in Canadian dollars. Note that these figures are in different units and reflect historical conditions for the second quarter. The net revenue is not the same as cash receipts or free cash flow. This research is not newly published, but it is new to this report. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1017413/000101741326000043/a06302026q2pressrelease.htm
CNQ R91300 CNQ cash conversion baseline CAD millions = 4418
Supply chain2026-09-13 00:13
On August 6, the issuer released its financial results for the second quarter, which ended on June 30. The operating cash flow was 6823 million Canadian dollars, and after subtracting net property, plant, and equipment of 2380 million Canadian dollars and exploration and evaluation of 25 million Canadian dollars, the simple free cash flow was 4418 million Canadian dollars. For the first half of the year, the operating cash flow was 10105 million Canadian dollars, and after subtracting 4472 million Canadian dollars and 111 million Canadian dollars, the simple free cash flow was 5522 million Canadian dollars. The earnings for the second quarter were 4503 million Canadian dollars, with a diluted earnings per share of 2.15 Canadian dollars. The company had 2618 million Canadian dollars in cash and 2077894 thousand weighted basic shares. The capital additions included acquisition net expenditures and were not just for maintenance, which means the simple free cash flow is different from the issuer's adjusted funds flow or distribution free cash flow. The cash flow is historical and not for the month of September. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1017413/000101741326000043/a06302026q2fs.htm
AA R91300 AA self-consumption and supplier-risk countercase = 34
Supply chain2026-09-13 00:10
A news scan found the headline 'AA R91300 AA self-consumption and supplier-risk countercase'. On February 26, 2026, a 10K report for the fiscal year 2025 stated that the company's own smelters accounted for 34% of alumina shipments. The report also noted that substantially all manufacturing raw materials were available from more than one supplier. The company faces risks including interrupted energy supply, expiring uncompetitive power contracts, and curtailment. This means the company is not solely dependent on external alumina prices or a single source for input materials. A full text of 680651 characters was read, but a risk factors extraction attempt via CLI only returned a 26-character table-of-contents heading, which was rejected as incomplete. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1675149/000119312526077167/aa-20251231.htm
FRO R91300 FRO annual customer concentration and war risk = 0
Supply chain2026-09-13 00:10
A news scan found the headline 'Mar27 2026 annual report covers2025: no customer>=10% consolidated revenue for2023–25.' This means that for the years 2023 to 2025, no single customer accounted for 10% or more of the company's total revenue. The report also mentions that charterers, which are companies that rent ships, can own competing fleets, and there is intense competition in the industry. Additionally, the report notes that while there is insurance available to cover war-related risks, some costs such as drydock losses may not be fully covered, and there may be limited space available for repairs. The report does not identify any exclusive supply bottlenecks. A truncated version of the annual report, which was 366657 characters long, was made available after a 60k character command line interface, but it did not provide enough information to infer customer concentration. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/913290/000091957426001955/d12130957_6-k.htm
FRO R91300 FRO operating cash less vessel investment = 248.662
Supply chain2026-09-13 00:10
On August 28, the company released its unaudited Q2 financials. The operating cash flow was $579.487 million, and after subtracting $330.825 million for new vessel and equipment investments, the simple free cash flow was $248.662 million. For the first half of the year, the operating cash flow was $961.984 million, and after subtracting $653.868 million for investments, the simple free cash flow was $308.116 million. The company also received $138.590 million from vessel sales in Q2 and $965.880 million in the first half of the year, which is reported separately. The total number of shares is 222,622,889, and the equity was $3,154.678 million in Q2. The company notes that its distributable cash forecast is not recurring due to growth capital expenditures and asset turnover, which can distort the free cash flow for a single quarter. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/913290/000091957426005942/p15060813_ex-1.htm
FRO R91300 special dividend primary recheck = 3.41
Supply chain2026-09-13 00:07
On September 11, the issuer of FRO rechecked this run and confirmed that the sale was completed. The special dividend is $0.80 plus $2.61 for Q2. The record date is expected to be September 18 on the NYSE and September 17 on the Oslo exchange, with payment expected around September 28. The capital release is not a recurring operating rent. The fund's credit and ex-date exit implementation remains unverified because the local agent SiteClient exposes order wrappers but does not have server corporate-action accounting. There is no need to reset a nonexistent holding, and the venue's cash behavior should not be inferred from the issuer's promise. https://www.frontlineplc.cy/fro-declares-special-one-time-dividend-after-sale-of-two-vllcs/
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