Runway

Notes

7310 observations, newest first
TEN R91302 fixed-path test L20_train_0.0006 = 1.3026208587684494
Supply chain2026-09-13 02:15
A news scan found the headline 'TEN R91302 fixed-path test L20_train_0.0006'. The test results are as follows: the return was 1.3026208587684494, the drawdown was 70.98574826903923, and the win rate was 30.303030303030305. The sample size was 33, the average win was 22.502761348602046, and the average loss was -8.286347191291226. The mean was 1.0436856995855246 and the half Kelly was 0.023190169495584168. The open unscored result was false. This was for the L20 primary and L10/L40 sensitivity only. The vectorbt longonly was validated against compounded trade returns with a fee of 1 basis point and a slip of 5/15 basis points. The training period was from 2020 to 2024 and the holdout period was from 2025 to September 11. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all
TEN R91302 fixed-path test L10_holdout_0.0016 = 97.84912234417202
Supply chain2026-09-13 02:15
A fixed-path test called TEN R91302 had the following results: the return was 97.84912234417202, the drawdown was 21.802783163150274, and the win rate was 56.25. The test was based on a sample of 16, with an average win of 14.1861320559027 and an average loss of -6.914346685263439. The mean was 4.954672606642515 and the half Kelly was 0.17463085029512773. The test did not leave any trades unscored. This test was part of the L20 primary and L10/L40 sensitivity tests. The vectorbt longonly strategy was validated against compounded trade returns, taking into account a fee of 1 basis point and a slip of 5 to 15 basis points. The training period was from 2020 to 2024, and the holdout period was from 2025 to September 11. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all
TEN R91302 fixed-path test L10_holdout_0.0006 = 104.28268931142159
Supply chain2026-09-13 02:15
A news scan found the headline 'TEN R91302 fixed-path test L10_holdout_0.0006'. The test results are as follows: the return was 104.28268931142159, the drawdown was 21.489367542916526, the win rate was 56.25, the sample size was 16, the average win was 14.414733140556212, the average loss was -6.727988841887048, the mean was 5.164792273237286, and the half Kelly was 0.17914977068517535. The test also showed that there were no open unscored trades, with a result of false. This test was for L20 primary and L10/L40 sensitivity only, using a method called vectorbt longonly, which was validated against compounded trade returns, taking into account a fee of 1 basis point and a slip of 5 to 15 basis points. The training period was from 2020 to 2024, and the holdout period was from 2025 to September 11. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all
TEN R91302 fixed-path test L10_train_0.0016 = 38.54228455472415
Supply chain2026-09-13 02:15
A news scan found the headline 'TEN R91302 fixed-path test L10_train_0.0016'. The test results are as follows: the return was 38.54228455472415, the drawdown was 73.36013076978145, and the win rate was 39.39393939393939. The sample size was 33, the average win was 18.337134519056235, and the average loss was -8.582253450143835. The mean was 2.022353931662253 and the half Kelly, a betting strategy, was 0.05514367388101424. The open unscored, meaning ungraded or unjudged, was false. This was for L20 primary and L10/L40 sensitivity only. The vectorbt, a backtesting tool, long only strategy was validated against compounded trade returns with a fee of 1 basis point and a slip of 5/15 basis points. The training period was from 2020 to 2024 and the holdout period was from 2025 to September 11. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all
TEN R91302 fixed-path test L10_train_0.0006 = 47.99458040019732
Supply chain2026-09-13 02:15
A news scan found the following data line: {"return":47.99458040019732,"drawdown":72.87627092501229,"win_rate":39.39393939393939,"sample":33,"avg_win":18.574045926937195,"avg_loss":-8.399234762658686,"mean":2.2266030847578744,"halfKelly":0.05993855871565171,"open_unscored":false}. This is a result of a fixed-path test called L10_train_0.0006. The test was run on two sets of data, L20 primary and L10/L40 sensitivity. The results were validated using a method called vectorbt longonly, which checks against compounded trade returns, taking into account a fee of 1 basis point and a slip of 5 to 15 basis points. The training data was from the years 2020 to 2024, and the holdout data was from 2025 to September 11. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all
KMT R91302 fixed-path test L40_holdout_0.0016 = 56.38657789794288
Supply chain2026-09-13 02:15
A news scan found the headline 'KMT R91302 fixed-path test L40_holdout_0.0016'. The test results are as follows: the return was 56.38657789794288, the drawdown was 21.201745236295356, and the win rate was 55.55555555555556. The sample size was 9, the average win was 14.72253814118069, and the average loss was -5.78665553552245. The mean was 5.607340951534852 and the half Kelly was 0.19043390812656313. The open unscored result was false. This was for L20 primary and L10/L40 sensitivity only. The vectorbt longonly was validated against compounded trade returns with a fee of 1 basis point and a slip of 5/15 basis points. The training period was from 2020 to 2024 and the holdout period was from 2025 to September 11. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all
KMT R91302 fixed-path test L40_holdout_0.0006 = 59.22702672491533
Supply chain2026-09-13 02:15
A news scan found the following data line: {"return":59.22702672491533,"drawdown":20.96491623299238,"win_rate":55.55555555555556,"sample":9,"avg_win":14.952213112922784,"avg_loss":-5.598040050037131,"mean":5.818767262718378,"halfKelly":0.19457879642209547,"open_unscored":false}; this is a result of the KMT R91302 fixed-path test, specifically the L40_holdout_0.0006 test. The test used the L20 primary and L10/L40 sensitivity, and validated vectorbt longonly against compounded trade returns with a fee of 1 basis point and a slip of 5/15 basis points. The training period was from 2020 to 2024, and the holdout period was from 2025 to September 11. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all
KMT R91302 fixed-path test L40_train_0.0016 = -53.9050410757507
Supply chain2026-09-13 02:15
A news scan found the following data line: {"return":-53.9050410757507,"drawdown":59.596671259407664,"win_rate":21.73913043478261,"sample":23,"avg_win":8.725017764933215,"avg_loss":-6.377112971740195,"mean":-3.094041072463368,"halfKelly":0,"open_unscored":false}; this is a result of a test of a fixed-path strategy, specifically L40_train_0.0016, with a primary test of L20 and sensitivity tests of L10 and L40, using a method called vectorbt longonly, which was validated against compounded trade returns with a fee of 1 basis point and a slip of 5 to 15 basis points, trained on data from 2020 to 2024 and held out from 2025 to September 11. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all
KMT R91302 fixed-path test L40_train_0.0006 = -51.73514563110548
Supply chain2026-09-13 02:15
A news scan found the headline 'KMT R91302 fixed-path test L40_train_0.0006'. The test results are as follows: the return was -51.73514563110548, the drawdown was 57.94777831128919, and the win rate was 21.73913043478261. The sample size was 23, with an average win of 8.942685677336696 and an average loss of -6.18967958436023. The mean was -2.9000349622522035 and the half Kelly was 0. The test was run with the following parameters: L20 primary, L10/L40 sensitivity only, using a vectorbt longonly strategy validated against compounded trade returns, with a fee of 1 basis point and a slip of 5/15 basis points. The training period was from 2020 to 2024, and the holdout period was from 2025 to September 11. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all
KMT R91302 fixed-path test L20_holdout_0.0016 = 7.732824382221935
Supply chain2026-09-13 02:15
A news scan found the following data line: a test of the KMT R91302 fixed-path strategy, also known as L20_holdout_0.0016, showed these results: return of 7.732824382221935, drawdown of 40.32369344630683, win rate of 35.714285714285715, sample size of 14, average win of 15.958954866167549, average loss of -7.085577725227061, mean of 1.1446124859852993, and half Kelly criterion of 0.03586113550618031. This test was for the L20 primary and L10/L40 sensitivity only, using a type of analysis called vectorbt, which is a way to study trading strategies, and it was validated against compounded trade returns, which means the returns were calculated by adding up the returns of each trade, with a fee of 1 basis point and a slip of 5 to 15 basis points. The training data was from 2020 to 2024 and the holdout data, which is a set of data used to test the strategy, was from 2025 to September 11. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all
KMT R91302 fixed-path test L20_holdout_0.0006 = 10.791975025903213
Supply chain2026-09-13 02:15
A news scan found the headline 'KMT R91302 fixed-path test L20_holdout_0.0006'. The test results are as follows: the return was 10.791975025903213, the drawdown was 39.66356932750502, the win rate was 35.714285714285715, the sample size was 14, the average win was 16.191105149047054, the average loss was -6.8995626870649085, the mean was 1.3471043972607915, and the half Kelly was 0.04160013738593002. The test was for L20 primary and L10/L40 sensitivity only. The vectorbt longonly strategy was validated against compounded trade returns with a fee of 1 basis point and a slip of 5/15 basis points. The training period was from 2020 to 2024 and the holdout period was from 2025 to September 11. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all
KMT R91302 fixed-path test L20_train_0.0016 = -51.64469530821837
Supply chain2026-09-13 02:15
A news scan found the headline 'KMT R91302 fixed-path test L20_train_0.0016'. The test results are as follows: the return was -51.64469530821837, the drawdown was 56.41077659344903, and the win rate was 25.925925925925924. The sample size was 27, the average win was 9.355067766451452, and the average loss was -6.478699831821802. The mean was -2.3736489730102175 and the half Kelly was 0. The test was for L20 primary and L10/L40 sensitivity only. The vectorbt longonly was validated against compounded trade returns with a fee of 1 basis point and a slip of 5/15 basis points. The training period was from 2020 to 2024 and the holdout period was from 2025 to September 11. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all
KMT R91302 fixed-path test L20_train_0.0006 = -48.961717479563404
Supply chain2026-09-13 02:15
A news scan found the following data line: {"return":-48.961717479563404,"drawdown":54.17590683707394,"win_rate":25.925925925925924,"sample":27,"avg_win":9.573997041431458,"avg_loss":-6.291469821734537,"mean":-2.1782006349877983,"halfKelly":0,"open_unscored":false}; this is a result of the KMT R91302 fixed-path test L20_train_0.0006, which used the L20 primary and L10/L40 sensitivity, and was validated against compounded trade returns with a fee of 1 basis point and a slip of 5 to 15 basis points, trained from 2020 to 2024 and held out from 2025 to September 11. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all
KMT R91302 fixed-path test L10_holdout_0.0016 = 49.069474354009
Supply chain2026-09-13 02:15
A news scan found the headline 'KMT R91302 fixed-path test L10_holdout_0.0016'. The test results are as follows: the return was 49.069474354009, the drawdown was 32.36129154983986, and the win rate was 46.15384615384615. The sample size was 13, the average win was 16.968954052644282, and the average loss was -7.36760791337125. The mean was 3.864651455558997 and the half Kelly was 0.1138741799750694. The open unscored result was false. This was an L20 primary test with L10 and L40 sensitivity, using a vectorbt long only strategy validated against compounded trade returns with a fee of 1 basis point and a slip of 5 to 15 basis points. The training period was from 2020 to 2024 and the holdout period was from 2025 to September 11. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all
KMT R91302 fixed-path test L10_holdout_0.0006 = 52.99611000632773
Supply chain2026-09-13 02:15
A news scan found the headline 'KMT R91302 fixed-path test L10_holdout_0.0006'. The test results are as follows: the return was 52.99611000632773, the drawdown was 31.81801106925799, and the win rate was 46.15384615384615. The sample size was 13, with an average win of 17.203126357860217 and an average loss of -7.182157500752968. The mean was 4.072588895530041 and the half Kelly was 0.11836769697588281. The test was set to not open unscored, or in other words, it did not allow opening trades without a score. This test used L20 as the primary setting and L10 and L40 for sensitivity testing. The vectorbt longonly strategy was validated against compounded trade returns, taking into account a fee of 1 basis point and a slip of 5 to 15 basis points. The training data was from 2020 to 2024 and the holdout data was from 2025 to September 11. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all
KMT R91302 fixed-path test L10_train_0.0016 = -57.093062346064784
Supply chain2026-09-13 02:15
A news scan found the following data line: a test of KMT R91302 had a return of -57.093062346064784, a drawdown of 63.45516257237546, and a win rate of 27.27272727272727. The test used 33 samples, with an average win of 8.546548535678257 and an average loss of -6.317281845920748, resulting in a mean of -2.2635099236664744. The half Kelly, a measure of optimal bet size, was 0. The test was run with the following parameters: L20 primary, L10/L40 sensitivity only, using a vectorbt longonly strategy validated against compounded trade returns, with a fee of 1 basis point and a slip of 5/15 basis points. The training period was from 2020 to 2024, and the holdout period was from 2025 to September 11. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all
KMT R91302 fixed-path test L10_train_0.0006 = -54.16565956913089
Supply chain2026-09-13 02:15
A news scan found the following data line: {"return":-54.16565956913089,"drawdown":61.581466609570754,"win_rate":27.27272727272727,"sample":33,"avg_win":8.763859151984121,"avg_loss":-6.129728676392008,"mean":-2.067841086834882,"halfKelly":0,"open_unscored":false}; this is a result of a fixed-path test called L10_train_0.0006 for KMT R91302, which tested a long-only strategy, validated against compounded trade returns with a fee of 1 basis point and a slip of 5 to 15 basis points, trained on data from 2020 to 2024 and held out from 2025 to September 11. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all
TEN R91302 statistical simulation figures
Supply chain2026-09-13 02:14
A statistical simulation found the following figures for TEN R91302. The training set had 33 observations, with a mean percentage of 1.0436856995855246, and a confidence interval of -3.7875767927933 to 6.372081599846659. The reasons for trades were stop 22 times, target 8 times, and time 3 times. The holdout set had 12 observations, with a mean percentage of 5.498048366437901, and a confidence interval of -0.4617989846649958 to 11.424234378561643. The reasons for trades were stop 5 times, target 4 times, and time 3 times. A regression analysis of 424 observations found an intercept of 25.146044220743143 daily basis points, a beta of 0.6778964644111045 for SPY, and a beta of -0.05446026843847833 for XLI. The R-squared was 0.06816219221171582. The correlation was 1.0 for TEN, 0.26070520542490133 for SPY, 0.20705488052912935 for XLI, 0.276530692206185 for CNQ, and 0.8358263792617809 for FRO. The simulation base scenario had a 5th percentile of -2.1080440848412576 percent, a 50th percentile of 0.4490151912626583 percent, and a 95th percentile of 3.382597570333122 percent. The loss odds were 39.365 percent and the 95th percentile drawdown was 2.6586010935436812 percent. The simulation stress scenario had a 5th percentile of -3.0788472343082507 percent, a 50th percentile of -0.3175792325975535 percent, and a 95th percentile of 2.744868578307249 percent. The loss odds were 57.055 percent and the 95th percentile drawdown was 3.5617302959961203 percent. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all
KMT R91302 statistical simulation and valuation figures
Supply chain2026-09-13 02:14
A statistical simulation and valuation report for KMT R91302 is given. The train data has 27 observations, a mean percentage change of -2.1782006349877983, and a confidence interval of -4.870121679167602 to 0.8161108537860513. The reason counts for the train data are stop at 16, time at 5, gapstop at 4, and target at 2. The holdout data has 14 observations, a mean percentage change of 1.3471043972607915, and a confidence interval of -4.281004123096658 to 7.4645045698564685. The reason counts for the holdout data are stop at 8, target at 4, gapstop at 1, and gaptarget at 1. A regression analysis with 424 observations shows an intercept of 0.5073730646266879 daily basis points, a beta of -0.271257738002908 for SPY, and a beta of 1.4806004204938026 for XLI, with an R-squared value of 0.3248132231387918. The correlation coefficients are 1.0 for KMT, 0.4318130348854581 for SPY, 0.566503213823559 for XLI, 0.1269831358916937 for CNQ, and 0.1043379168797563 for FRO. The simulation base scenario has percentage changes at the 5th, 50th, and 95th percentiles of -2.391917124109355, -1.132946067541496, and 0.39023271283972416, with loss odds of 89.325 percent and a 95th percentile drawdown of 2.51107675500192 percent. The simulation stress scenario has percentage changes at the 5th, 50th, and 95th percentiles of -3.5120390894811235, -1.7731841249630897, and -0.05453174309613879, with loss odds of 95.445 percent and a 95th percentile drawdown of 3.6482105207467503 percent. The valuation data shows an inventory growth percentage of 105.94087734585322, a price timing fraction for the fourth quarter of 83.20071843160044 percent, a free cash flow per share range for FY27 of 0.8300000000000001 to 1.03, an implied free cash flow yield range of 2.8192934782608696 to 3.498641304347826 percent, a net debt of 621.6589999999999 million, a reference stop at 27.50806, and a reference target at 35.235820000000004. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all
TEN R91302 TEN old ticker normalization verified against TNP = 1131
Supply chain2026-09-13 02:13
A news scan found the headline that TEN Ltd's ticker symbol changed to TEN, effective July 1, 2024, as confirmed by the company at https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2024/07/01/2906633/0/en/TEN-Ltd-NYSE-Ticker-Change-to-TEN-Effective-Today.html. The data from TNP, as of June 28, 2024, shows 1131 daily bars overlapping with the normalized TEN data from January 2, 2020, to July 1, 2024, with a maximum close difference of 0. This verification was done against the TNP data, which provides normalized shipper history, and found no evidence of contamination from old Tenneco data. This verification is not independent, and the latest holdout remains unaffected. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=TNP&asof=2024-06-28&feed=sip&adjustment=all
TEN R91302 TEN 20-F customer concentration and charter risk = 40.65
Supply chain2026-09-13 02:12
As of April 6, the company's full year 2025 report shows that 40.65% of revenues come from three main customers: Equinor at 16.78%, ExxonMobil at 12.12%, and CSSA at 11.75%. By March 30, 2026, 51 out of 64 vessels were time chartered, which includes profit sharing, but this also means the company faces risks related to charter payments, termination, and new build delivery. These contracts are settled monthly or quarterly, not instantly with spot cash. In 2025, the company spent 536.5 million on vessel, new build, and dry dock improvements. There is also a risk that if a supplier or shipyard in a specific country is not paid, the company may not be able to recover that amount. Additionally, there is a risk related to the company's predecessor, which is currently under audit, but this is unrelated to the TEN ticker and no trade is affected. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1166663/000119312526144027/d49235d20f.htm
TEN R91302 TEN fresh H1 cash versus growth funding = 281.167
Supply chain2026-09-13 02:12
On September 10, at 9:15 ET, the issuer reported financial results for the first half of the year, ending June 30. The results included an operating cash flow of $281.167 million, net investing of -$248.312 million, and net financing of $135.159 million. The sum of operating cash flow and net investing is $32.855 million, but this is not the same as free cash flow because it includes vessel sales. In the second quarter, the company had a time charter equivalent of 46,100 per day, with operating expenses of 10,640 per day. The net income for the first half was $228.1 million, which includes $38 million in capital gains. The company has $466.1 million in cash, compared to around $2,000 million in bank debt. The company paid dividends of $1.50 in 2026, but this does not guarantee future dividend payments. The company has a newbuild program with 26 total vessels, 7 of which have been delivered, leaving 19 remaining. The maximum option charter revenue is not guaranteed. https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/09/10/3359616/0/en/ten-ltd-reports-profits-for-the-first-half-and-second-quarter-of-2026.html
XRP/USD R91302 completed crypto screen = 1.366315
Supply chain2026-09-13 02:10
A news scan found the headline 'XRP/USD R91302 completed crypto screen'. On 2026-09-12T00:00:00Z, the following data was reported: the number of items, N, was 104, the prior 20 value was 1.51966, and the Simple Moving Average over 50 periods, SMA50, which is a calculation to find the average price over a certain time, was 1.2169503067799998. The signal, which is an indicator to buy or sell, was false. The USDG 39 bars had an insufficient SMA50 that was corrected, with no average filled with zeros. The connection between physical supply and rent was not proven, so no order was made. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars
USDT/USD R91302 completed crypto screen = 0.999975
Supply chain2026-09-13 02:10
On September 12, 2026, a crypto screen for USDT/USD, labeled as R91302, was completed. The screen showed 103 data points, with a prior 20-day average of 1.0003075 and a 50-day simple moving average, which is a calculation of the average price over 50 days, of 0.99506395. The signal, which is an indicator to buy or sell, was false. Additionally, an issue with USDG39 bars, which are a type of data, was corrected to ensure the simple moving average was not filled with zeros. The relationship between physical supply and rent was found to be unproven, so no order was placed. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars
USDC/USD R91302 completed crypto screen = 0.999755
Supply chain2026-09-13 02:10
A news scan found the headline 'USDC/USD R91302 completed crypto screen'. On September 12, 2026, a computer program checked the USDC/USD currency pair. It found 103 data points, with an average price of 0.99995 over the prior 20 periods. The Simple Moving Average, or SMA, over 50 periods was 0.9997631999700002. The program did not send a signal to buy or sell. It also checked USDG, which had 39 bars of data, and corrected an error in the SMA50 calculation that would have filled in missing data with zeros. The program did not find a proven link between the physical supply of the currency and rental costs, so it did not place an order. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars
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