Notes

This is a methods note, number 3577, from September 2018, based on calculations from completed September 2017 data. The calculations are shown in percent units and the simulations are conditional, using a Kelly diagnostic, which is a tool to measure risk. The data is presented in a table with the following columns: split, n, minimum gap percent, 1 percent gap percent, 0.1 percent gap percent, below 10, below 20, below 30, minimum close percent, and maximum close percent. The rows show the results for three groups: train with 2011 data points, holdout with 502 data points, and forward 2026 with 178 data points. The results are: train had a minimum gap percent of -10.86956522, a 1 percent gap percent of -4.00250437, and a minimum close percent of -22.31121281; holdout had a minimum gap percent of -6.62010325, a 1 percent gap percent of -3.37043443, and a minimum close percent of -9.42492013; forward 2026 had a minimum gap percent of -2.98858902, a 1 percent gap percent of -2.27911718, and a minimum close percent of -7.98232288. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=STNG&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all

A methods note, number 3577, was made. It used calculations from September 2018 based on data from completed bars in September 2017. The calculations are shown in percent units and are explicitly named. Simulations are conditional and a Kelly diagnostic was used. A news scan found the following data: a table with columns for date, n, close, prior20, sma50, sma200, atr20, atrpct, rv20, volume20, signal, rule_stop, rule_target, and shares_cap, and one row of data for September 17, 2026, with values 2692, 87.85, 85.73, 78.8874, 71.41215, 2.284605, 2.60057484, 0.25487675, 810719.15, true, 83.28079, 101.55763, and 1. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=STNG&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all

A news scan found the headline 'FRO R91806 backtests 3/3'. Methods note3577 is a set of rules for the backtest, which is a simulation of trades. The backtest used data from September 2017, calculated in September 2018. The results are shown in a table with many columns, including the return as a percentage, the return of closed trades as a percentage, and the biggest loss as a percentage, also known as drawdown. The table has three rows of results for different versions of the backtest, with the following parameters: a lookback period of 20, a cost of 6 basis points per side, and 178 bars of data. The versions are called 'forward2026' with no filter, 'forward2026' with a simple moving average filter of 200 days, and 'forward2026' with a filter based on the SPY stock with a 200-day average. The results include a return of 85.92% and 103.11% for the different versions, with a win rate of 66.67% and 80%, and a drawdown of 31.15% and 24.78%. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=FRO&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all

A news scan found the headline 'FRO R91806 backtests 2/3'. Methods note3577 is a calculation done in September 2018 on completed bars from September 2017. The calculation uses percent units and simulations that are conditional, with a Kelly diagnostic, which is a tool to measure the performance of a trading strategy. The results are shown in a table with the following columns: split, lookback, filter, cost_bps_side, bars, return_pct, closed_return_pct, drawdown_pct, win_rate_pct, n, mean_trade_pct, median_trade_pct, open, buyhold_pct, targets, gaps. The table has 11 rows of data, including the following results: a holdout with 20 lookback and sma50 filter had a return of -12.70193921 percent, a holdout with 40 lookback and sma50 filter had a return of -14.89097941 percent, and a forward2026 with 10 lookback and sma50 filter had a return of 92.32682365 percent. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=FRO&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all

A news scan found the headline 'Methods note3577'. This is about a method used for calculations. The calculation was done in September 2018 and used data from completed bars in September 2017. The results are given in percent units and the simulations are conditional, which means they depend on certain conditions. A Kelly diagnostic was also used, which is a way to measure the performance of an investment strategy. The data includes several columns such as split, lookback, filter, cost_bps_side, bars, return_pct, closed_return_pct, drawdown_pct, win_rate_pct, n, mean_trade_pct, median_trade_pct, open, buyhold_pct, targets, and gaps. The rows of data are as follows: a train set with 10 lookback, sma50 filter, 6 cost_bps_side, 2012 bars, -77.18829331 return_pct, -75.77896957 closed_return_pct, 85.65337762 drawdown_pct, 23.63636364 win_rate_pct, 55 n, -1.71588277 mean_trade_pct, -7.2683532 median_trade_pct, 1 open, 142.39043825 buyhold_pct, 12 targets, and 8 gaps. There are also other rows with different parameters such as 10 lookback, sma50 filter, 16 cost_bps_side, 2012 bars, -79.5849018 return_pct, -78.30197673 closed_return_pct, 86.86192576 drawdown_pct, 23.63636364 win_rate_pct, 55 n, -1.91225478 mean_trade_pct, -7.45363135 median_trade_pct, 1 open, 142.39043825 buyhold_pct, 12 targets, and 8 gaps. The data also includes a holdout set with 10 lookback, sma50 filter, 6 cost_bps_side, 502 bars, -20.32490016 return_pct, -20.32490016 closed_return_pct, 46.40791614 drawdown_pct, 30.76923077 win_rate_pct, 13 n, -1.31454695 mean_trade_pct, -5.99803754 median_trade_pct, 0 open, 22.81835811 buyhold_pct, 1 targets, and 2 gaps. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=FRO&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all

A methods note, number 3577, was written in September 2018, based on calculations from September 2017 data. The calculations are shown in percent units and the simulations are conditional, using a Kelly diagnostic, which is a tool to measure risk. The results are as follows: a table with columns for split, regime, above, number of times, mean percent, and win percent, shows the following rows: for the training period, own200 regime was above the threshold 39 times, with a mean of -2.86738864 percent and a win percent of 20.51282051, and below the threshold 12 times, with a mean of 0.3922908 percent and a win percent of 25, and for the spy200 regime, it was above 36 times, with a mean of -0.97577471 percent and a win percent of 25, and below 15 times, with a mean of -4.79951851 percent and a win percent of 13.33333333, for the holdout period, own200 regime was above 7 times, with a mean of 0.41491401 percent and a win percent of 42.85714286, and below 4 times, with a mean of -2.05947629 percent and a win percent of 25, and for the spy200 regime, it was above 9 times, with a mean of -1.55483836 percent and a win percent of 33.33333333, and below 2 times, with a mean of 4.33001907 percent and a win percent of 50, and for the forward 2026 period, own200 regime was above 6 times, with a mean of 9.55467192 percent and a win percent of 66.66666667, and spy200 regime was above 5 times, with a mean of 13.15829046 percent and a win percent of 80, and below 1 time, with a mean of -8.46342073 percent and a win percent of 0. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=FRO&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all

A methods note, number 3577, was made. It used calculations from September 2018 on completed data from September 2017 bars. The calculations are in percent units and are explicitly named. The simulations are conditional and include a Kelly diagnostic, which is a measure of risk. The trade statistics are as follows: the columns are split, number of trades, mean percent, mean confidence interval 95 percent, win percent, average win percent, average loss percent, half Kelly stock fraction, half Kelly dollars, minimum trade percent, and maximum trade percent. The rows show the results for the train, holdout, and forward 2026 sets. The train set had 51 trades with a mean percent of -2.10040524, a win percent of 21.56862745, and a half Kelly stock fraction of 0. The holdout set had 11 trades with a mean percent of -0.48486428, a win percent of 36.36363636, and a half Kelly stock fraction of 0. The forward 2026 set had 6 trades with a mean percent of 9.55467192, a win percent of 66.66666667, and a half Kelly stock fraction of 0.5, with half Kelly dollars of 101.99. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=FRO&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all

A methods note, number 3577, was made. It used a September 2018 calculation on completed September 2017 bars. The units are in percent and are explicitly named. Simulations are conditional and a Kelly diagnostic was used. A table of data was provided with the following columns: split, n, min_gap_pct, p01_gap_pct, p001_gap_pct, below10, below20, below30, min_close_pct, and max_close_pct. The rows of the table are: train with 2011, min_gap_pct of -14.4387148, p01_gap_pct of -5.76704768, p001_gap_pct of -11.89260543, below10 of 4, below20 of 0, below30 of 0, min_close_pct of -16.89805633, and max_close_pct of 27.6481149, holdout with 502, min_gap_pct of -9.1963546, p01_gap_pct of -4.71664676, p001_gap_pct of -8.34562716, below10 of 0, below20 of 0, below30 of 0, min_close_pct of -10.52195526, and max_close_pct of 11.38888889, and forward2026 with 178, min_gap_pct of -8.02898551, p01_gap_pct of -3.52951053, p001_gap_pct of -7.25915377, below10 of 0, below20 of 0, below30 of 0, min_close_pct of -7.67951206, and max_close_pct of 9.80215827. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=FRO&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all

A methods note, numbered 3577, was written. It is about a calculation done in September 2018 using data from September 2017. The calculation is shown in percent units and includes simulations that are conditional, with a Kelly diagnostic, which is a way to measure how well a trading strategy is working. A news scan found the following data: a table with columns for date, a number, close price, prior 20-day average, 50-day simple moving average, 200-day simple moving average, 20-day average true range, 20-day average true range as a percent, 20-day realized volatility, 20-day average volume, a signal, a stop rule, a target rule, and shares capital. The table has one row of data for September 17, 2026, with the following values: 2692, a close price of 50.66, a prior 20-day average of 50.32, a 50-day simple moving average of 39.424, a 200-day simple moving average of 31.37225, a 20-day average true range of 1.5835, a 20-day average true range as a percent of 3.12574023, a 20-day realized volatility of 0.37120737, a 20-day average volume of 3223476.05, a signal of true, a stop rule of 47.493, a target rule of 60.161, and shares capital of 2. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=FRO&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all

A methods note, number 3577, was written. It is about a calculation done in September 2018, using data from September 2017. The calculation is shown in percent units and the results are based on certain conditions, using a Kelly diagnostic, which is a way to measure risk. The results are shown in a table with the following columns: tail replacement probability, equity weight, number of paths, number of trades, mean terminal percent, fifth percentile terminal percent, ninety-fifth percentile drawdown percent, and probability of a 10 percent loss. The table has the following rows: [0, 0.11999953, 20000, 20, -3.93924871, -14.32465219, 15.30251692, 20.74], [0, 0.02999988, 20000, 20, -0.99976179, -3.76591688, 4.04490262, 0], [0.01, 0.11999953, 20000, 20, -4.67440674, -15.13594647, 16.13346757, 24.05], [0.01, 0.02999988, 20000, 20, -1.18789304, -3.98973774, 4.27815467, 0], [0.05, 0.11999953, 20000, 20, -7.17269354, -18.13375238, 19.07636048, 37.37], [0.05, 0.02999988, 20000, 20, -1.84080754, -4.83838754, 5.11282272, 0]. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=TEN&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all

A news scan found the headline 'TEN R91806 simulation 2/2'. Methods note3577 is a calculation method used for this simulation. The Sep18 calculation was done on completed Sep17 bars, which are sets of data from September 2017. Percent units are explicitly named, meaning they are clearly stated as percentages. Simulations are conditional, meaning they depend on certain conditions, and a Kelly diagnostic, a tool used to determine the optimal size of a trade, was used. The simulation results are as follows: {"columns":["period","block","levels","paths","horizon","stop","target","stop_first_pct","target_first_pct","timeout_pct","mean_pct","median_pct","p05_pct","p01_pct","mean_sessions","sizing"],"rows":[["last252",5,"2ATR6ATR",20000,60,49.67716,62.20852,42.31,54.87,2.82,7.10366621,17.42050893,-6.23282134,-6.58042822,19.2845,[{"dollars":25.4975,"p01_account_loss_pct":0.19741207,"prob_account_loss_gt3pct":0},{"dollars":101.99,"p01_account_loss_pct":0.78964829,"prob_account_loss_gt3pct":0},{"dollars":52.81,"p01_account_loss_pct":0.40887662,"prob_account_loss_gt3pct":0}]],("last252",5,"frozen_value",20000,60,45.41,55.36,6.9,92.64,0.46,3.15829329,4.49371524,-14.28721805,-14.28721805,9.62535,[{"dollars":25.4975,"p01_account_loss_pct":0.42861486,"prob_account_loss_gt3pct":0},{"dollars":101.99,"p01_account_loss_pct":1.71445944,"prob_account_loss_gt3pct":0},{"dollars":52.81,"p01_account_loss_pct":0.88774,"prob_account_loss_gt3pct":0}]],("last252",10,"2ATR6ATR",20000,60,49.67716,62.20852,45.19,51.945,2.865,6.40764406,17.42050893,-6.23282134,-7.24687852,19.24595,[{"dollars":25.4975,"p01_account_loss_pct":0.2174055,"prob_account_loss_gt3pct":0},{"dollars":101.99,"p01_account_loss_pct":0.86962201,"prob_account_loss_gt3pct":0},{"dollars":52.81,"p01_account_loss_pct":0.45028668,"prob_account_loss_gt3pct":0}]],("last252",10,"frozen_value",20000,60,45.41,55.36,6.22,93.225,0.555,3.27630609,4.49371524,-14.28721805,-14.28721805,10.01025,[{"dollars":25.4975,"p01_account_loss_pct":0.42861486,"prob_account_loss_gt3pct":0},{"dollars":101.99,"p01_account_loss_pct":1.71445944,"prob_account_loss_gt3pct":0},{"dollars":52.81,"p01_account_loss_pct":0.88774,"prob_account_loss_gt3pct":0}]]}. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=TEN&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all

A news scan found the headline 'Methods note3577'. This is a note about methods. A calculation was done on September 18, 2017, using completed bars from September 2017. The calculation used percent units and was based on conditional simulations, which are simulations that depend on certain conditions, and a Kelly diagnostic, which is a tool used to measure the performance of a trading strategy. The results of the calculation are shown in a table with the following columns: period, block, levels, paths, horizon, stop, target, stop first percentage, target first percentage, timeout percentage, mean percentage, median percentage, 5th percentile percentage, 1st percentile percentage, mean sessions, and sizing. The table has four rows, each representing a different set of conditions. The first row has the following values: pre2024, 5, 2ATR6ATR, 20000, 60, 49.67716, 62.20852, 72.725, 26.645, 0.63, 0.09187508, -6.23282134, -6.23282134, -7.82020051, 11.6317. The second row has the following values: pre2024, 5, frozen_value, 20000, 60, 45.41, 55.36, 25.07, 74.735, 0.195, -0.24603204, 4.49371524, -14.28721805, -14.5717374, 9.20685. The third row has the following values: pre2024, 10, 2ATR6ATR, 20000, 60, 49.67716, 62.20852, 72.965, 25.84, 1.195, -0.02803876, -6.23282134, -6.23282134, -7.82020051, 12.7265. The fourth row has the following values: pre2024, 10, frozen_value, 20000, 60, 45.41, 55.36, 23.97, 75.52, 0.51, -0.07018432, 4.49371524, -14.28721805, -14.44375264, 9.92905. Each row also has a list of three dictionaries, each representing a different set of values for dollars, 1st percentile account loss percentage, and probability of account loss greater than 3 percent. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=TEN&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all

A news scan found the following backtest results for TEN R91806: Methods note3577 used a September 2018 calculation on completed September 2017 bars, with percent units explicitly named and simulations that were conditional, using a Kelly diagnostic, which is a measure of risk. The results were as follows: the columns in the simulation were split, lookback, filter, cost in basis points per side, number of bars, return percentage, closed return percentage, drawdown percentage, win rate percentage, number of trades, mean trade percentage, median trade percentage, open, buy and hold percentage, targets, and gaps. The rows of the simulation showed the following results for forward2026: with a 20 lookback and no filter, the cost was 6 basis points per side, with 178 bars, a return of 96.72599361 percent, a closed return of 85.02817833 percent, a drawdown of 22.00545418 percent, a win rate of 80 percent, 5 trades, a mean trade return of 13.70806856 percent, a median trade return of 18.41721254 percent, an open of 1, a buy and hold return of 149.92901088 percent, 4 targets, and 0 gaps. The same results were found with a 20 lookback and a simple moving average 200 filter, and with a 20 lookback and a spy200 filter, the return was 99.60448591 percent, the closed return was 87.73550835 percent, the drawdown was 16.36008512 percent, and the other results were similar. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=TEN&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all

A methods note, number 3577, was written in September 2018, using data from completed bars in September 2017. The note uses percent units and includes simulations that are conditional, with a Kelly diagnostic, which is a tool to measure the performance of a trading strategy. The note includes a table with the following columns: split, lookback, filter, cost in basis points per side, number of bars, return as a percentage, closed return as a percentage, drawdown as a percentage, win rate as a percentage, number of trades, mean trade as a percentage, median trade as a percentage, open, buy and hold return as a percentage, targets, and gaps. The table has 12 rows of data, including: a holdout with a lookback of 20, a filter of sma50, a cost of 16, 502 bars, a return of 11.58200576 percent, a closed return of 11.58200576 percent, a drawdown of 30.24872745 percent, a win rate of 37.5 percent, 8 trades, a mean trade of 1.91152548 percent, a median trade of -5.60484857 percent, 0 open, a buy and hold return of 10.62403301 percent, 1 target, and 0 gaps; and a forward2026 with a lookback of 10, a filter of sma50, a cost of 6, 178 bars, a return of 84.96569284 percent, a closed return of 73.96717421 percent, a drawdown of 28.75562763 percent, a win rate of 66.66666667 percent, 6 trades, a mean trade of 10.54133837 percent, a median trade of 17.19972282 percent, 1 open, a buy and hold return of 149.92901088 percent, 4 targets, and 0 gaps. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=TEN&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all

A news scan found the headline 'TEN R91806 backtests 1/3'. Methods note3577 is a calculation method used on completed September 2017 bars in September 2018. The calculation uses percent units and simulations are conditional, with a Kelly diagnostic, which is a measure of risk. The results are as follows: a table with columns including split, lookback, filter, cost in basis points per side, number of bars, return percentage, closed return percentage, drawdown percentage, win rate percentage, number of trades, mean trade percentage, median trade percentage, open, buy and hold percentage, targets, and gaps. The rows of the table are: train with 10 lookback, sma50 filter, 6 cost basis points per side, 2012 bars, -54.03227818 return percentage, -52.11883877 closed return percentage, 86.09367743 drawdown percentage, 25.45454545 win rate percentage, 55 trades, -0.50819938 mean trade percentage, -6.37263562 median trade percentage, 1 open, -17.73981603 buy and hold percentage, 9 targets, 0 gaps. Other rows include different combinations of lookback, filter, and cost basis points per side, with corresponding results. The table also includes holdout rows with 502 bars and different lookback, filter, and cost basis points per side, with corresponding results. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=TEN&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all

A methods note, number 3577, was written in September 2018, using data from September 2017. The calculations are shown in percent units and the simulations are conditional, using a Kelly diagnostic, which is a tool to measure risk. The results are shown in a table with the following columns: split, regime, above, number of times, mean percent, and win percent. The table has the following rows: train own200 with 29 times above, mean percent -0.14283071, and win percent 20.68965517, train own200 with 17 times not above, mean percent -4.29375011, and win percent 17.64705882, train spy200 with 31 times above, mean percent -2.10899425, and win percent 16.12903226, train spy200 with 15 times not above, mean percent -0.78380138, and win percent 26.66666667, holdout own200 with 6 times above, mean percent 2.01219475, and win percent 33.33333333, holdout own200 with 2 times not above, mean percent 2.42562659, and win percent 50, holdout spy200 with 7 times above, mean percent 0.6844863, and win percent 28.57142857, holdout spy200 with 1 time not above, mean percent 12.13301759, and win percent 100, forward2026 own200 with 5 times above, mean percent 13.70806856, and win percent 80, forward2026 spy200 with 4 times above, mean percent 19.2070263, and win percent 100, and forward2026 spy200 with 1 time not above, mean percent -8.28776241, and win percent 0. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=TEN&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all

A methods note, number 3577, was made. It used a September 2018 calculation on completed September 2017 bars. The percent units were explicitly named. Simulations were conditional and used a Kelly diagnostic, which is a way to measure risk. The trade statistics are as follows: the columns are split, number of trades, mean percent, mean confidence interval 95 percent, win percent, average win percent, average loss percent, half Kelly stock fraction, half Kelly dollars, minimum trade percent, and maximum trade percent. The rows are divided into train, holdout, and forward 2026. For train, there were 46 trades, with a mean percent of -1.6769, a mean confidence interval 95 percent of -5.3767 to 2.5366, a win percent of 19.5652, an average win percent of 24.7252, an average loss percent of 8.099, a half Kelly stock fraction of 0, half Kelly dollars of 0, a minimum trade percent of -16.4693, and a maximum trade percent of 34.616. For holdout, there were 8 trades, with a mean percent of 2.1156, a mean confidence interval 95 percent of -4.1478 to 9.983, a win percent of 37.5, an average win percent of 15.5828, an average loss percent of 5.965, a half Kelly stock fraction of 0.5, half Kelly dollars of 101.99, a minimum trade percent of -7.2818, and a maximum trade percent of 20.0513. For forward 2026, there were 5 trades, with a mean percent of 13.7081, a mean confidence interval 95 percent of 2.3942 to 21.039, a win percent of 80, an average win percent of 19.207, an average loss percent of 8.288, a half Kelly stock fraction of 0.5, half Kelly dollars of 101.99, a minimum trade percent of -8.2878, and a maximum trade percent of 23.4254. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=TEN&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all

A methods note, number 3577, was written in September 2018, based on calculations from September 2017 data. The calculations are shown in percent units and the simulations are conditional, using a Kelly diagnostic, which is a tool to measure risk. The data is presented in a table with the following columns: split, n, min_gap_pct, p01_gap_pct, p001_gap_pct, below10, below20, below30, min_close_pct, and max_close_pct. The rows of the table show the results for three groups: train, holdout, and forward2026, with the following values: train has 2011 data points, holdout has 502 data points, and forward2026 has 178 data points, with various percentage values for each group. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=TEN&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all

A methods note, number 3577, was made. It was from September 2018 and was based on data from September 2017. The note used percentages and had simulations that were conditional, which means they depended on certain conditions, and it included a Kelly diagnostic, which is a tool used to measure risk. A news scan found the following data: a table of technical information about the stock TEN, with columns for date, number of days, closing price, and other technical indicators, and one row of data from September 17, 2026, with a closing price of 52.81, a 20-day simple moving average of 52.31, a 50-day simple moving average of 41.49, and a 200-day simple moving average of 34.78, among other values. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=TEN&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all

A news scan found the headline 'PSIX R91806 latest concentration and refund ownership update'. As of August 6, the company's 10-Q report for June 30 shows that it received 22.7 million USD in tariff refunds, which are recorded as a customer refund liability. The allocation of these refunds is expected to happen by the end of 2026, and no gain has been recognized yet. In the second quarter, 41 percent of sales came from customers B22 and C19. For the first half of the year, 40 percent of sales came from customers B17 and C23. Supplier A's sales fell below 10 percent in both the first half of the year and the second quarter, so the 21 percent sales figure for fiscal year 2025 is historical and not current. The collaboration with Weichai expired on March 20, and as of the filing, there has been no formal extension. However, a separate exclusive purchase agreement with SWIEC remains in place, which includes minimum purchases of 49.937 million in 2026 and 2027, 95.117 million in 2028 and 2029, for a total of 290.108 million. These purchases are obligations, not customer backlog, meaning they are commitments to buy rather than orders from customers, with customer backlog referring to a company's pending orders, in this case, these purchases are not part of that pending orders list. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1137091/000162828026054328/psix-20260630.htm

A news scan found the headline is not available, but a data line shows that on September 18, an adjustment was made to the series of stock prices for AA, which showed that on November 1, 2016, the stock opened at 20.92, compared to the previous close of 81.58, a decrease of approximately 74.35646 percent. The company's frequently asked questions section confirms that on November 1, 2016, the company separated and became a new, independent AA. This change means that the current loss history for the stock is not comparable to the past. The decision was made to keep the original receipt for the stock, but to start analyzing the stock's open, high, low, and close prices, also known as OHLC, on November 1, 2016, and to set the first return or gap as undefined. All indicators and statistics for AA, including backtests and Monte Carlo simulations, also known as MC, will be recalculated. A preliminary Monte Carlo simulation that showed a 70.05 percent loss was discarded before a decision was made because it was contaminated. No backadjustment was made to the data. A cross-check of the stock's price history, which is called a price-vintage cross-check, still shows a gap in the older history of the stock. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=AA&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all;https://investors.alcoa.com/resources/investor-faqs/default.aspx

A document called Sep17issuer6-Kexhibit99.1 was retrieved from a system called EDGARCLI after a website failed. This document shows a multi-year agreement between WBH and Sandvik for a minimum of approximately 1720 tonnes of a substance called WO3, which is a type of tungsten oxide, a chemical compound. The agreement includes an upfront payment of 3 million US dollars for the right to buy the substance, and the price will be linked to an index, with a minimum price that has not been disclosed. The existing plant has been in care and maintenance mode since February 2020, but details such as the restart date, annual production, capital expenditure, operating cost, and minimum price have not been made public. It is possible to terminate the contract before the minimum amount of substance is delivered. The total contract value is not the same as the annual volume of substance to be delivered, and the upfront payment is not the same as cash received. This information comes from a legal attachment from the issuer, but it is also promotional, and there is no independent confirmation from the buyer yet. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1670061/000149315226043044/ex99-1.htm

On September 15, a news report from CNA stated that a union rejected an offer and demanded a 15% share of operating profit. This information came from a direct interview, not from the union itself. A search of Micron's newsroom did not find an original statement about a strike or settlement. Therefore, a headline from September 18 about a production outage is not confirmed. Since the operating impairment is unverified, there is no estimate of lost wafers, no odds, and no trade. On June 24, the issuer released prepared remarks, which can be found at https://investors.micron.com/static-files/631b1a32-5537-46ae-8f40-82e42fc79dfe, forecasting meaningful shipments from Tongluo in mid-2027 and HBM packaging in Singapore in the first half of 2027, indicating no immediate spare capacity. https://focustaiwan.tw/business/202609150015;https://www.micron.com/about/press/news

On August 26, 2026, the issuer announced an operational release, which included the restart of 315 out of 1262 reduction cells, representing about 25% of the total. The issuer forecasts that full production will be reached by the first quarter of 2027. Typically, these cells take about one week to stabilize, and some of their output is used to restart other cells. The alumina refinery is currently operating at approximately 50% capacity, and the recycling plant is expected to reach full production by late in the fourth quarter of 2026. The owner, who is closest to the plant, has made promotional forecasts, but as of August 26, these forecasts are not expected to be met by September. The recovery of production can lead to a decrease in aluminum rent, and the cell count is not directly measured by the net shipped tonnes. https://media.ega.ae/egas-al-taweelah-smelter-restoration-reaches-25-completion-milestone/

A news scan found the 10-K filing for fiscal year 2025, which was released on March 2, 2026. The filing shows that for the year 2025, 53 percent of PSIX's sales came from a few large customers, with customer B making up 20 percent, customer C making up 10 percent, customer E making up 10 percent, and customer F making up 13 percent. The same filing also shows that supplier A made up 21 percent of PSIX's purchases, which is up from 16 percent in 2024. The Risk Factors section of the filing warns that if PSIX is not able to pass on cost increases to its customers, it could hurt demand for its products, and that the company's need for key components and its limited working capital could make it hard for the company to increase production. The filing also notes that as of February 26, Weichai owned 46.0 percent of PSIX's outstanding shares, although the filing also refers to Weichai's ownership as a majority, which is an inconsistency that is not resolved here. Note that owning 46 percent of the shares does not necessarily mean that Weichai has a voting majority. The filing also states that most of PSIX's short-term contract performance obligations are exempt from disclosure requirements. This 10-K filing is the most recent primary audited annual source of information, but it does not name supplier A. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1137091/000162828026013207/psix-20251231.htm