Runway

Notes

7310 observations, newest first
VSH Passive backlog and tariff denominator distinction = 1.4
Supply chain2026-09-05 02:05
Aug5 Q2endedJul4 issuer release readSep5: bookbill1.32overall,1.23semis,1.40passives;backlog6.1months;GAAPrevenue888.6m vs adjusted918.6m because30m tariffrefundspassed tocustomers with no grossprofit impact. GM23.3%GAAP/22.6%adjusted;operatingmargin6.0%/5.8%,EPS.19. This means headline GM uplift from refund denominator is not supplier pricing power. FY25 risk factors retrieved separately; no part-level allocation notice inferred from aggregate orders. https://ir.vishay.com/news-releases/news-release-details/vishay-intertechnology-reports-second-quarter-2026-results ; https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/103730/000010373026000019/form10k.htm
AEHR Burn-in demand versus concentrated customer base = 70
Supply chain2026-09-05 02:05
Issuer Jul14 2026/FY26 10K readSep5: top5 customers70% FY26 sales vs77%FY25/93%FY24;top3 individual26%,14%,11%. Effective backlogabout100m;FY27 revenue guide130-150m,nonGAAPnetmargin18-22%. Evaluation/pilot interest is not binding production award; lead AI and silicon photonics customers ramping per management. Products can relieve qualification/test bottleneck but concentrated order timing remains major risk; current backlog definition includes effective rather than only fiscal-period booked backlog. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1040470/000165495426006919/aehr_10k.htm ; https://www.aehr.com/2026/07/aehr-test-systems-reports-fiscal-2026-fourth-quarter-and-full-year-financial-results-with-record-quarterly-bookings-and-100-million-effective-backlog/
PSIX Capacity ramp costs versus data-center demand = -21
Supply chain2026-09-05 02:05
Aug6 issuer Q2Jun30 release readSep5: sales152.5m down21%YoY;GM27.1% vs28.2%YoY but+420bpQoQ;net16.9m/EPS.73;debt reduced30.8m. Wisconsin ramp production costs expected persist; customer schedules,throughput,supply constrain recognized data-center revenue; no specific future DC revenue promised. 2025 10K filedMar2: key components cannot quickly/cheaply be re-sourced; limited suppliers and tariffs may not pass through. Weichai46.0% ownership atFeb26 coexists with boilerplate majority-owner wording; do not infer >50%economic ownership without reconciliation. Supplier and governance risk retained. https://investors.psiengines.com/node/13891 ; https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1137091/000162828026013207/psix-20251231.htm
AXTI InP capacity economics, dilution and export constraint = 44.9
Supply chain2026-09-05 02:05
July30 release Q2Jun30 readSep5: revenue47.6m vs26.9mQ1/18mYoY;GAAP GM44.9% vs29.6%/8%;EPS.17;dilutedWA shares63.474m vs43.710m;operatingincome10.423m,netinterest4.728m,netattributable11.128m. Cash412.167m,restricted33.050m,shortinvest5.031m,longinvest298.600m,shortloans84.233m. Manufacturing3China sites; stakes>10rawmaterial firms. FY25 10K says InP export permits most significant challenge and limited quartz/polish suppliers with standardPOs,no guaranteed long-term supply. Risk section CLI truncated60000 of125202chars; inspected portion only. Realized expansion does not establish permits universally resolved; no shipments-by-license series. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1051627/000143774926025061/ex_974537.htm ; https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1051627/000143774926008612/axti20251231_10k.htm
ETN Orders, realized margins and upstream single-source risk = 1.2
Supply chain2026-09-05 02:05
ReadSep5 issuer Q2 2026 release: electrical rolling12m book/bill1.2, Electrical Americas orders+41%,backlog+33%;group sales8.5bn,organic+14%,segmentmargin23.1% down80bpYoY;EA27.5% up190bpsequential. AdjFY EPS13.40-13.60 vsGAAP10.36-10.56. 2025 10K filedFeb26: single-source relationships exist, alternative supplier qualification may delay sales, price increases not assured to cover inflation. Issuer interested, no independent customer confirmation; sector backlog growth is not proof all orders carry higher margin. https://www.eaton.com/us/en-us/company/news-insights/news-releases/2026/eaton-reports-record-second-quarter-2026-results.html ; https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1551182/000155118226000007/etn-20251231.htm
Collector and own-ledger verification = 2
Supply chain2026-09-05 02:05
Sep5 02:00 read: job12 initial sandbox exit0 contains both FRO/STNG raw Sep4 bars, timestamps, prior20 thresholds,ADR,staleness and eligible=false. Collector first-output check complete. Ledger only2closed operator-liquidated trades, no natural stop/target sample, no open/pending exposure. FRO44.49->46.182917;STNG79.76->80.36; no contemporaneous quote means no slippage estimate. Supplied fund cash278.67/equity851.08; no holding review action. query_research fund=supply notes115; query_trades fund=supply
New-name IEX prices and recent consolidated-data access limitation = 403
Supply chain2026-09-05 00:12
A news scan found the headline is not available, but a data line shows that on September 5, a request for a feed was rejected with a 403 error, meaning the subscription does not permit recent Securities Information Processor data. The last daily prices on the Investors Exchange for MU on September 4 were: close at 1015, open at 971.4, high at 1017.77, low at 969.415, and volume at 850,076. For GEV, the prices were: close at 943.13, open at 947.08, high at 958.41, low at 939.705, and volume at 64,438. Neither of these can be bought as a whole share because they are too expensive, with a single-position cap of 212.77. Only buying a fraction of a share during regular hours is still possible, but this has not been validated and does not provide an advantage. There is no current executable quote available. The full price data for September 1-4 is available in a file called newnames-bars.json in the artifacts folder. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
CLI baseline results and derived risk geometry
Supply chain2026-09-05 00:12
On September 5, the following measurements were taken: the return on investment for CLI FRO was 3.576941%, the drawdown was 18.756807%, and the win rate was 33.3333% out of 51 trades, with an average trade return of 0.118950%. For comparison, buying and holding the investment would have given a return of 107.322552%. Meanwhile, STNG had a return of 16.447466%, a drawdown of 11.370128%, and a win rate of 41.17647% out of 34 trades, with an average trade return of 0.501024% and a buy-and-hold return of 20.493123%. Each of these investments had 502 trading periods. The daily correlation between FRO and STNG, calculated using a method called vectorbt and based on out-of-sample data, was 0.750617 over 420 days, with a beta of 0.629135 and 0.402495 relative to the SPY index, which is a stock market index. Some example exit strategies were also considered, with FRO having an entry price of 46.15, a stop loss of 44.91425, and a target of 48.6215, and STNG having an entry price of 82.345, a stop loss of 80.675, and a target of 85.685, but these are not actual orders. The price-to-earnings ratio for FRO, which is a measure of how much investors are paying for each dollar of earnings, was 4.4205, and for STNG, the ratio of the term price to the spot price was 0.637042. A three-year schedule for STNG, assuming 365 days per year and no days off or commissions, would have a total value of $116,713,860, assuming three contracts. The GEV book bill, which is a type of financial calculation, was 1.745120. These numbers are used to understand the investments, but are not predictions of future prices. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars; local backtest CLI; issuer observations74,75,78
STNG Training, cost and corporate-action sensitivity results = -34.70947837524224
Supply chain2026-09-05 00:10
On September 5, a fixed rule, number 90, was used for training. The results of this training were as follows: the return was -34.70947837524224, the drawdown was 39.94184451579319, and the win rate was 33.89830508474576. This was based on a sample of 59 trades. The average win was 4.690769188666997 and the average loss was 3.361840149340286. The mean trade was -0.6321420686598507. A double-cost holdout had a return of -0.010273105467731511, a drawdown of 15.506697696961247, and a win rate of 42.10526315789473. This was based on a sample of 38 trades. A split-only holdout had a return of 21.521755372130773, a drawdown of 12.641225695147384, and a win rate of 45.714285714285715. This was based on a sample of 35 trades. The training-only sweep returns were -35.817536589398486 for 1.5/1, -36.692060494139945 for 1.5/1.25, -34.70947837524224 for 2/1, and -33.73995877217891 for 2/1.25. The costs were 15 basis points per side and double 30 basis points. The adjustment changed the signals as well as the returns, so the difference is not a pure dividend attribution. Terminal marks were excluded from the completed payoffs and the portfolio return included the mark. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
FRO Training, cost and corporate-action sensitivity results = 16.28355754203192
Supply chain2026-09-05 00:10
On September 5, a fixed rule, number 90, was used for training. The results of this training were as follows: the return was 16.28355754203192, the drawdown was 27.936323827778153, and the win rate was 39.682539682539684. This was based on a sample of 63 trades. The average win was 5.121626732237021 and the average loss was 2.832415858100291. The mean trade was 0.32395024917642007. A quarter Kelly loss fraction binary, which is a measure of risk, was 0.01581285918092107. A quarter Kelly notional fraction binary, which is a measure of investment size, was 0.5582816921356596. The buy and hold price, which is the price of buying and holding a stock, was 151.34865134865137. The exit counts, which are the reasons for exiting a trade, were as follows: 32 stops, 14 targets, 11 time exits, 3 gap targets, and 3 gap stops. A double-cost holdout, which is a test of the strategy with double the costs, had a return of 6.007607252509042, a drawdown of 28.607082852452137, and a win rate of 41.46341463414634. This was based on a sample of 41 trades. A split-only holdout, which is a test of the strategy with split costs, had a return of 16.612161842440052, a drawdown of 24.473750338441658, and a win rate of 40.476190476190474. This was based on a sample of 42 trades. The training-only sweep returns, which are the returns of the strategy with different cost ratios, were as follows: -22.850830739801186 for a ratio of 1.5/1, -20.464079736011197 for a ratio of 1.5/1.25, 16.28355754203192 for a ratio of 2/1, and 2.2460287625991078 for a ratio of 2/1.25. The costs were 15 basis points per side for single costs and 30 basis points per side for double costs. The adjustment changes the signals as well as the returns, so the difference is not a pure dividend attribution. Terminal marks, which are the marks at the end of a trade, were excluded from the completed payoffs, and the portfolio return includes the mark. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
FRO Corrected completed-trade estimates supersede observation110 = 41
Supply chain2026-09-05 00:09
A September 5 implementation audit excluded one terminal mark from payoff samples. The portfolio's return of 20.2426% and drawdown of 24.4195% remained unchanged. Naturally completed trades were 41, with a win rate of 41.4634%, an average win of 5.462704%, and an average loss of 2.963577%, resulting in a mean of 0.530247%. A 3-trade circular-block bootstrap simulation with 10,000 paths had a 95% confidence interval mean of -0.874362% to 1.958541%. The positive fraction was 0.7617. A simulation of 41 trades at 10% notional value showed terminal results of -2.728966%, 2.062210%, and 7.331679% at the 5th, 50th, and 95th percentiles, respectively, with a loss probability of 24.17% and a 95th percentile drawdown of 4.478482%. The binary mean-payoff quarter-Kelly capital fraction, which is a method of determining the optimal amount of capital to allocate, was 81.8831%, but this is considered an unreliable estimate and not authorized for use. A preliminary observation, known as observation 110, and its simulations have been superseded, but prices remain unchanged. All accounting has been verified against vectorbt longonly and compounded cash returns, which is a type of investment strategy that only considers long positions and a method of calculating returns. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
FRO Full Q2 attachment: charter stepdown and expected ex-dividend date = 2.61
Supply chain2026-09-05 00:07
Issuer Aug28 2026 PDF pp5-6,21 read Sep5. One 3-year charter steps from$110000/day year1 to70000 year2 to45000 year3; pricing schedule is contracted, not future spot forecast. Expected NYSE ex/record date Sep18; Oslo exSep17; payment aboutSep28; $0.80 special remains conditional/undated. Contracted spot TCE is load-to-discharge, with no ballast revenue. Cites industry orderbook25.4% fleet, secondhand industry estimate not independently audited. This is fuller same issuer origin, not independent corroboration. https://ml-eu.globenewswire.com/Resource/Download/59431810-8e9c-4a39-b3d0-cc2dd63da402
STNG Sep4 IEX technical and fresh range-rule holdout measurements = 82.345
Supply chain2026-09-05 00:07
Retrieved Sep5; IEX partial-market daily bars. Technical={"last":"2026-09-04 04:00:00+00:00","close":82.345,"open":80.28,"high":82.635,"low":80.28,"volume":34291,"adr20":1.670000000000001,"atr14":1.9110714285714283,"sma20":78.4625,"sma50":77.1638,"sma200":71.13707500000001,"prior20":81.46,"signal":true,"return_day_pct":2.866958151155541,"return20_pct":8.184983249031074,"adjustment_diff_max":0.1056034482758621,"missing_dates_vs_spy":["2022-03-08 05:00:00+00:00"]}. Fixed preregistration#90, vectorbt longonly next-open orders,fees5bp/slip10bp per side,all-adjusted Jan2025-Sep42026 holdout={"return":12.063721240398099,"drawdown":14.229742708185267,"win_rate":42.10526315789473,"sample":38,"avg_win":4.890887855769227,"avg_loss":2.90238514854133,"mean_trade":0.37899295853679926,"buy_hold_price":71.23102516115615,"exit_counts":{"stop":21,"target":7,"time":6,"gap_target":4},"quarter_kelly_loss_fraction_binary":0.019372400764093578,"quarter_kelly_notional_fraction_binary":0.667464852961699}. Stats={"bootstrap_mean_ci95_pct":[-0.7530441318177783,1.4538279530008706],"bootstrap_probability_mean_positive":0.7469,"simulation_notional_fraction":0.1,"simulation_paths":10000,"simulation_trades_per_path":38,"terminal_return_p5_p50_p95_pct":[-2.167989506138467,1.3997073795891768,4.999736051223703],"probability_loss":0.2574,"drawdown_p95_pct":3.5917805837198893,"slope_beta_spy":0.40249511373416336}. Trades include window-end marking. Historical inspection/adjustment/15-minute execution gaps prevent live eligibility. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
FRO Sep4 IEX technical and fresh range-rule holdout measurements = 46.15
Supply chain2026-09-05 00:07
Retrieved Sep5; IEX partial-market daily bars. Technical={"last":"2026-09-04 04:00:00+00:00","close":46.15,"open":45.88,"high":47.01,"low":45.7,"volume":102920,"adr20":1.2357499999999988,"atr14":1.553214285714284,"sma20":42.84974999999999,"sma50":39.82020000000001,"sma200":33.598975,"prior20":45.43,"signal":true,"return_day_pct":1.607221488331123,"return20_pct":16.188318227593147,"adjustment_diff_max":0.33449583017437445,"missing_dates_vs_spy":["2022-03-08 05:00:00+00:00"]}. Fixed preregistration#90, vectorbt longonly next-open orders,fees5bp/slip10bp per side,all-adjusted Jan2025-Sep42026 holdout={"return":20.242565122418966,"drawdown":24.41946590148769,"win_rate":42.857142857142854,"sample":42,"avg_win":5.200793792734923,"avg_loss":2.963576641353139,"mean_trade":0.5354392589703163,"buy_hold_price":256.64605873261206,"exit_counts":{"stop":16,"gap_target":8,"time":7,"target":5,"gap_stop":5,"window_end":1},"quarter_kelly_loss_fraction_binary":0.025738343044780995,"quarter_kelly_notional_fraction_binary":0.8684891993557194}. Stats={"bootstrap_mean_ci95_pct":[-0.8217007079440715,1.9511948047659993],"bootstrap_probability_mean_positive":0.7744,"simulation_notional_fraction":0.1,"simulation_paths":10000,"simulation_trades_per_path":42,"terminal_return_p5_p50_p95_pct":[-2.5026774583213727,2.1890804842523592,7.450380488996547],"probability_loss":0.2301,"drawdown_p95_pct":4.398388664400361,"slope_beta_spy":0.6291352617597148}. Trades include window-end marking. Historical inspection/adjustment/15-minute execution gaps prevent live eligibility. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
FRO Annual risk review: loss-of-hire coverage floor USD/day = 20000
Supply chain2026-09-05 00:05
FY2025 20-F signed Mar27 2026, read Sep5. VLCC/Suezmax accident-related loss-of-hire coverage not less than$20000/day for not less than180days with60-day deductible. Insurance exclusions and nonpayment possible. Warns vessel oversupply lowers charter rates/values and covenants can suffer. Historical policy disclosure, not current war-loss claim coverage or actual loss. Primary issuer. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/913290/000162828026021774/fro-20251231.htm
HLAG.DE Conosur dry-container announced rate increase USD = 600
Supply chain2026-09-05 00:05
Carrier notice in July2026 URL; no precise publication timestamp displayed. Effective Sep4 2026 for full-gated dry containers East Coast to West Coast South America Conosur service, until further notice. Retrieved Sep5. Carrier closest to its tariff and commercially interested. $600/container announced GRI is not measured realized yield, shipment acceptance or proof of congestion; route-specific, not global freight. https://www.hapag-lloyd.com/zh/services-information/news/2026/07/shipping-with-our-conosur-service--con---a-gri-is-coming-up.headless.html
6981.T FY2027 capacitor forecast growth percent = 23.6
Supply chain2026-09-05 00:05
Issuer forecast dated July31 2026, retrieved Sep5. Capacitor sales planned1157.5B yen vs936.4B(+23.6%); consolidated revenue2110B(+15.2%), operating profit430B(+52.6%), capex255B(+2.9%). Attributes growth to servers/distributors; capacity expansion planned especially servers. Primary interested forward guidance, not realized shortage/part lead-time evidence. Weak smartphone-linked categories coexist with strong server components; no broad MLCC scarcity claim verified. https://corporate.murata.com/en-us/ir/financial/forecast
Historical IEX bar coverage and provenance = 1172
Supply chain2026-09-05 00:04
Retrieved Sep5 via DATA_TOKEN proxy, start2022-01-01,end2026-09-05,timeframe1Day,feediex,adjustment split/all,limit10000. Each adjustment returns FRO1172/STNG1172/SPY1173 bars Jan3 2022-Sep4 2026, one page no token. Saved artifacts/bars-{split,all}.json; split SHA25645b31f10cd6fc99883c3fdcaef52814c0cbbd9dd59c0b6c716856fb37dc18338; all20a91bc9cea6e73bb763d66bcdce7b3b869dc8b2c5d2c980a48208c125b8ea43. IEX is partial market coverage. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
Supply operational exposure count = 0
Supply chain2026-09-05 00:04
Sep5 live ledger only closed FRO#6/STNG#3 operator liquidations; no pending/open lots; sole monitor#4 done. Fund cash278.67, equity851.08 from supplied venue snapshot. No holding requires stop/target reset. runway query_trades fund=supply; runway list_monitors fund=supply; user snapshot 2026-09-05T00:00:19.968Z
GEV Supplier concentration and backlog cancellation qualification
Supply chain2026-09-05 00:04
FY2025 10-K pp10,12,23 read Sep5. Certain chips/critical materials limited or sole-source or concentrated in one country; fulfillment disruptions can cause penalties. Customer cancellations possible, but reported RPO excludes orders cancelable without substantive penalty. Thus blanket 'backlog freely cancellable' bear case is wrong. Primary issuer risks, no new outage demonstrated. https://www.gevernova.com/sites/default/files/gevernova_2025_form10-k.pdf
GEV Q2 electrification orders and revenue USD million = 6347
Supply chain2026-09-05 00:04
Jul22 2026 issuer release for June30 quarter, retrieved Sep5. Electrification orders6347/revenue3637/segment EBITDA671 million; orders+66% organic, revenue+29% organic. Reported revenue+68% includes Prolec GE. Power+Electrification shortages may benefit supplier pricing, but margin already improved; not new Sep4 evidence. Primary issuer, commercially interested. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1996810/000199681026000147/gevpressrelease2q26.htm
MU FY2025 customer concentration and single-source equipment = 17
Supply chain2026-09-05 00:04
FY2025 10-K filed Oct3 2025, read Sep5 2026. One unnamed customer17% revenue; photolithography sometimes single supplier; certain material/component suppliers sole-source and qualification may be slow. Historical concentration, not a current share estimate or a newly verified outage. Primary issuer risk disclosure. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/723125/000072312525000028/mu-20250828.htm
MU Strategic agreement price caps and supply allocation = 5000000000
Supply chain2026-09-05 00:04
FY26Q3 10-Q period ended May28, retrieved Sep5. Discloses demand above industry supply and allocation decisions; take-or-pay volumes with most pricing fixed or bounded. Largest contracts generally cap existing-product pricing near calendarQ2 levels. May28 remaining obligations approx$5B; some agreements signed later. Expected deposits/related commitments $22B for concluded agreements are not all received cash. Issuer primary legally filed; estimates interested and forward-looking. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/723125/000072312526000015/mu-20260528.htm
STNG Q3 LR2 spot and term charter rates = 64900
Supply chain2026-09-05 00:04
Sep3 issuer release retrieved Sep5. LR2 spot/pool $64900/day at85% coverage,1249 revenue days; MR $30000 at79%, Handymax $25500 at70%. New 3-year LR2 charters $40188/$42500 and MR $23900/day. Owns75 vessels,25 LR2. Idle days included in revenue days; estimates subject to finalization. Closest to contracts, commercially interested. Term/spot definitions and durations differ; not directly a forecast of spot decline. https://www.scorpiotankers.com/scorpio-tankers-inc-announces-updates-on-third-quarter-2026-tce-rates-and-time-charter-out-agreements/
FRO Issuer booking/cash breakeven and dividend evidence = 156900
Supply chain2026-09-05 00:04
Issuer Aug28 2026, retrieved Sep5. Q3 VLCC contracted spot TCE $156900/day,86% covered versus estimated next12-month cash breakeven $23800/day; full-quarter realized TCE expected lower due to ballast. Q2 adjusted EPS/dividend $2.61. Two multi-year VLCC charters $90000/$75000 daily. Closest to own bookings, commercially interested; no new Sep4 update established. These figures are not earnings forecasts. https://www.frontlineplc.cy/fro-second-quarter-and-six-months-2026-results/
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