ComputedSep6;2023-24train/2025-Sep4holdout. Units percentages except Kelly fraction/correlation/beta. Selected history, no executable trade edge. {"training":{"return":-20.226924131342084,"drawdown":42.41702195698698,"sample":5,"win_rate":40,"avg_win_pct":9.49153208567969,"avg_loss_pct":12.652979720214299,"open_trades":0,"bars":502},"holdout":{"return":100.86913884738652,"drawdown":52.64870616416617,"sample":6,"win_rate":33.33333333333333,"avg_win_pct":90.42901519392737,"avg_loss_pct":8.912609209106419,"open_trades":1,"bars":420},"stress":96.99049648905715,"stats":{"mean_pct":24.201265591904843,"mean_ci95":[-9.281859484395701,83.34189392058218],"quarterKelly":0.7506982799054767,"SPY_beta":1.4164941997295375,"annual_intercept_pct":84.25765809419322,"correlation":0.2686657980502372,"regression_N":420},"simulation":{"paths":10000,"trades_per_path":10,"allocation_fraction":0.1,"terminal_pct_5_50_95":[-6.370617830008973,26.69264947112002,80.10263038433918],"loss_probability":0.1607,"DD95pct":7.1411254470859165},"technical":{"close":54.49,"SMA10":56.345000000000006,"SMA50":51.3787,"ADR20":2.94475,"return20_pct":6.654922685457043,"fresh_cross":false,"above50":true,"maxwhole_if_US":3}}
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
ComputedSep6;2023-24train/2025-Sep4holdout. Units percentages except Kelly fraction/correlation/beta. Selected history, no executable trade edge. {"training":{"return":-70.41696178544443,"drawdown":75.79667071359455,"sample":8,"win_rate":25,"avg_win_pct":0.6517149118523768,"avg_loss_pct":17.423273366037314,"open_trades":1,"bars":502},"holdout":{"return":3806.8958350518215,"drawdown":51.04321289777267,"sample":3,"win_rate":66.66666666666666,"avg_win_pct":1896.8749997716575,"avg_loss_pct":26.874767394405925,"open_trades":0,"bars":420},"stress":3771.8914672135193,"stats":{"mean_pct":1255.6250773829695,"mean_ci95":[-26.874767394405925,3755.0995828171845],"quarterKelly":0.6157672157498131,"SPY_beta":2.510765723117023,"annual_intercept_pct":243.35805347077851,"correlation":0.3100029303028999,"regression_N":420},"simulation":{"paths":10000,"trades_per_path":10,"allocation_fraction":0.1,"terminal_pct_5_50_95":[382.9263292434339,11430.885227959248,1180856.6766774335],"loss_probability":0.0063,"DD95pct":10.324267073169901},"technical":{"close":61.62,"SMA10":61.5005,"SMA50":62.905,"ADR20":7.14025,"return20_pct":-30.408266982890066,"fresh_cross":false,"above50":false,"maxwhole_if_US":3}}
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
ComputedSep6;2023-24train/2025-Sep4holdout. Units percentages except Kelly fraction/correlation/beta. Selected history, no executable trade edge. {"training":{"return":-18.379624701263946,"drawdown":38.08315203070036,"sample":7,"win_rate":14.285714285714285,"avg_win_pct":4.176091941782156,"avg_loss_pct":4.47590394037464,"open_trades":1,"bars":502},"holdout":{"return":63.612006198479286,"drawdown":34.29300922307122,"sample":6,"win_rate":66.66666666666666,"avg_win_pct":23.08313952385756,"avg_loss_pct":12.688676602612531,"open_trades":0,"bars":420},"stress":60.6933318522586,"stats":{"mean_pct":11.159200815034197,"mean_ci95":[-6.253898200108404,33.81850909884469],"quarterKelly":0.9524932275040123,"SPY_beta":1.9863587003719025,"annual_intercept_pct":20.064572434798166,"correlation":0.5366769104547051,"regression_N":420},"simulation":{"paths":10000,"trades_per_path":10,"allocation_fraction":0.1,"terminal_pct_5_50_95":[-1.4098666803553626,10.876823694261283,27.477367917971574],"loss_probability":0.0765,"DD95pct":5.465816247846634},"technical":{"close":50.73,"SMA10":48.5175,"SMA50":53.4088,"ADR20":2.6170000000000004,"return20_pct":-4.102079395085068,"fresh_cross":false,"above50":false,"maxwhole_if_US":4}}
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
ComputedSep6;2023-24train/2025-Sep4holdout. Units percentages except Kelly fraction/correlation/beta. Selected history, no executable trade edge. {"training":{"return":-59.14352438750562,"drawdown":73.32702451820484,"sample":8,"win_rate":25,"avg_win_pct":17.775446289429993,"avg_loss_pct":19.73980835696249,"open_trades":1,"bars":502},"holdout":{"return":300.263105054815,"drawdown":61.8216373703249,"sample":4,"win_rate":50,"avg_win_pct":162.8438294578507,"avg_loss_pct":22.650839954529136,"open_trades":0,"bars":420},"stress":295.4886435016639,"stats":{"mean_pct":70.09649475166077,"mean_ci95":[-22.650839954529136,162.84382945785072],"quarterKelly":0.47509525355138876,"SPY_beta":3.4471004978529223,"annual_intercept_pct":102.05112096851207,"correlation":0.4831043177800733,"regression_N":420},"simulation":{"paths":10000,"trades_per_path":10,"allocation_fraction":0.1,"terminal_pct_5_50_95":[16.423607625778548,90.3213124133992,210.4789959281613],"loss_probability":0.0103,"DD95pct":12.89478702100605},"technical":{"close":86.245,"SMA10":85.3135,"SMA50":90.8107,"ADR20":9.19425,"return20_pct":-16.26699029126213,"fresh_cross":false,"above50":false,"maxwhole_if_US":2}}
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
AEHR Critical input single source risk
Supply chain2026-09-06 02:09
FY26 10K specifically identifies chambers,powersupplies,highdensityinterconnects,wafer/modulecontactors,signaldistribution substrates andcertainICs suppliedbyone/limitedsources. Replacementqualification can be lengthy. Better burn-in economics do not remove Aehr's own component bottleneck.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1040470/000165495426006919/aehr_10k.htm
COHU Customer concentration countercheck = 0
Supply chain2026-09-06 02:09
FY25/24 no individualcustomer >=10%consolidatedsales; STMicroelectronics12%FY23. General industryconcentration risk is not evidence Cohu itself has a disclosed current >10%customer.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/21535/000143774926004339/cohu20251227_10k.htm
AEHR September10 conference date only = 10
Supply chain2026-09-06 02:09
Sep3 issuernotice confirms institutionalmeetings atLakeStreet conferenceSep10NYC, no publicpresentation hour/newfinancialrelease promised. Research followup only; not a tradable earnings catalyst.
https://www.aehr.com/2026/09/aehr-test-systems-to-participate-in-the-10th-annual-lake-street-capital-markets-best-ideas-growth-conference-on-september-10/
ReadSep6: Apr1issuerblog claims eachworkload deflationary afterMar23BME. AEP76mechanics specify AKT removed atACTtopup then provider payout remints atsettlementprice: risingprice netburn, fallingprice netmint, flatprice approximatelyneutral before spreads. OutstandingACTfloat sink temporary. No live deployed-code/state reconciliation; roadmap conceptual mechanics stronger than promotional blanketdeflation.
https://akash.network/roadmap/aep-76/ ; https://akash.network/blog/akash-network-q1-2026-report/
RENDER/USD Burn and mint economics; time basis missing on dashboard = 1531871
Supply chain2026-09-06 02:09
AccessSep6: foundationdashboard cumulativeburn1,531,871RENDER,circulatingsupply555,397,576,totalframes79,617,080;latestepochburn blank, no synchronized period verification. Documentation: jobspaidfiat-equivalent,tokenburned; suppliers receive emissions. Cumulativeburn not current annual netdeflation. Dashboard/bootstrap-data freshness unverified; retain discovery only.
https://stats.renderfoundation.com/ ; https://know.rendernetwork.com/basics/burn-mint-equilibrium
MAERSK-B.CO Q2 container rates, costs, utilization and outlook = 22
Supply chain2026-09-06 02:09
IssuerAug13,periodQ2Jun30: Ocean loadedrates+22%YoY,volumes+4.1%,utilization96%vs94%,opcost+19%,fixedenergyunitcost-0.8%;OceanEBIT935mvs229m. Terminalsrevenue/move+7.1%,volume+2.2%. ConsolidatedFCF549mQ2 but6M-325m;FY26EBITguide4.5-6.5bn;100USD/FFE rate sensitivity700mEBITannual. Closest operator, economically interested; no independent port corroboration yet.
https://investor.maersk.com/static-files/d0d97fdd-9715-463e-abba-259e202466e4
COHU Supplier concentration constraint
Supply chain2026-09-06 02:08
Feb17 2026 10K FYDec27 2025: keyparts can be single/limitedsupplier; suppliers may raise prices or ceaseparts requiring reengineering. Concentrated semiconductor/OSAT buyerbase. Testcapex recovery can be offset by equipment inputconstraints; quote-free paraphrase of risk section.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/21535/000143774926004339/cohu20251227_10k.htm
COHU Test utilization and earnings conversion = 80
Supply chain2026-09-06 02:08
IssuerJul30 Q2: estimated customer testcellutilization80% endJune; revenue149m,+38%YoY; GM45.4%; GAAPloss0.2m versusnonGAAPincome14.1m; cash/investments498.2m. FY26HPCrevenueestimate100-110m; opportunitypipeline850m not backlog; Q3sales170+/-7m. One issuer origin, not independent corroboration.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/21535/000143774926025053/ex_994647.htm
AXTI Annual export control exposure
Supply chain2026-09-06 02:08
FiledMar17 2026 forDec31 2025: allthree substrate families require Chinese permits; InP addedFeb4 2025. Initial Europe/JapanpermissionsJun11 2025; timingUSpermissions uncertain as of filing. These dates do not describe Sep6permit status. Closest regulatory source, jurisdiction risk rather than guaranteed scarcity rents.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1051627/000143774926008612/axti20251231_10k.htm
AXTI Q2 actual growth and profitability update = 47.589
Supply chain2026-09-06 02:08
IssuerJul30 Q2endedJun30: revenue47.589m versus17.974m yearago and26.924m priorquarter; GP21.366m,GM44.9% versus29.6%prior/8%yearago, operatingincome10.423m, netattributable11.128m. Management cites capacity/productivity and recordInP. Allthree manufacturinglocations China; permit risk remains. Supersedes old-quarter performance inference, does not establish current US export approvals.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1051627/000143774926025061/ex_974537.htm
AEHR FY2026 customer concentration, cancellation and financing = 70
Supply chain2026-09-06 02:08
10K filedJul27 periodMay29: top5customers70% revenue versus77%/93% FY25/24; largest26.3%,14.2%,10.9%. Most purchase orders cancellable/reschedulable with limited penalties; supplier delays have delayed shipments. FY26financingcash97.211m, commonstockATM netproceeds97.4m; cashgrowth is not operating profit. Closest issuer regulatory disclosure.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1040470/000165495426006919/aehr_10k.htm
AEHR FY2026 backlog and cash sources = 80.6
Supply chain2026-09-06 02:08
Issuer Jul14 for FY endedMay29: revenue50m versus59m; Q4revenue18.8m,bookings60.7m,May29backlog80.6m versus effectivebacklog100.6m including subsequent orders; cash116.5m; operating cashused3.3m. FY27guide130-150m revenue/nonGAAPnetmargin18-22% forecast, not guaranteed.
https://www.aehr.com/2026/07/aehr-test-systems-reports-fiscal-2026-fourth-quarter-and-full-year-financial-results-with-record-quarterly-bookings-and-100-million-effective-backlog/
AEHR Issuer announced AI WLBI order, delivery period = 22
Supply chain2026-09-06 02:08
Observed Sep6. Issuer Aug12 2026: $22m follow-on order from unnamed lead AI processor customer; shipments expected over next6months to Taiwan manufacturing partner. Configured9x300mm wafers/system. First-party commercial claim, promotional; order not realized revenue. No independent customer confirmation.
https://www.aehr.com/2026/08/aehr-receives-22-million-follow-on-order-for-ai-processor-wafer-level-burn-in-systems/
GEV Prospective GEV collector test blocked = 403
Supply chain2026-09-06 00:09
Sep6 00:08–09UTC: local singleGEV160daySIP query returnedHTTP403 with +00:00 then Z timestamps. HistoricalGEV,SPY query earlier succeeded and1282barsarchived; causeunknown, not proof no data. New collector NOTscheduled because localtestfailed. Existing12/16/18retained; nextresearch02UTC before nextstockopen. watch.sh local only, no claimed successful sandbox.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
GEV Derived capacity and valuation arithmetic = 20.9060763852