Notes

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 https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; original models notes290/295

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 https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; original models notes290/295

{"world_reported_2025_mcm":190,"Qatar_2025_mcm":63,"Qatar_share_pct":33.1578947368421,"US_Qatar_share_pct":75.78947368421053,"Qatar_monthly_mcm":5.25,"one_month_Qatar_outage_annual_world_pct":2.763157894736842,"Qatar14pct_of_world_pct":4.6421052631578945,"US_net_exports_mcm":30,"US_sales_reconcile_mcm":51,"unidentified_country_sum_gap_mcm":5,"spot_doubling_no_contract_reprice_helium_revenue_pct":10,"assumed_APD_8pct_group_exposure_revenue_uplift_pct":0.8,"same_case_unitcost_inflation_breakeven_pct":15.384615384615385,"APD_Q3_helium_EPS_drag_pct":-2.26537216828479,"APD_Q2_helium_EPS_drag_pct":-2.2304832713754648,"BlueSeal_initial_fill_reduction_pct":99.53333333333333} Qatar14%numberpurehypotheticalsensitivitynotindependentlyverifiedcurrentoutagemeasure. HighsingledigitAPDsharetranslated8%scenarioNOTdisclosedexactshare. 5mcmrowgaprounding/coverageunknown. https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2026/mcs2026-helium.pdf ; https://investors.airproducts.com/static-files/873bd766-037f-459f-8a09-ac5bff2165b1

{"draws":100000,"seed":20260906,"assumed_base_revenue":100,"assumed_base_cost":65,"profit_change_pct_quantiles":[-61.166174939036075,-21.31368625581767,22.19847057117173],"fraction_draws_profit_above_base_pct":22.198999999999998,"fraction_profit_up_margin_down_pct":6.9239999999999995,"note":"Independent uniforms over preregistered ranges; scenario mass NOT estimated probability of future business or trade outcome; all costs variable optimistic under volume loss."} 192deterministicgridrowsand100000draws. Noempiricalbusinesslikelihoods;allcostsvariableassumptionoptimisticonvolumeloss.SimulationmassmustnotenterKelly. Assumptions in fund=supply note295 ; https://investors.airproducts.com/static-files/1c55c69d-3196-4a46-b646-fd85adeec0f2

{"symbol":"APD","event":"2026-07-10","sessions":20,"end":"2026-08-06","raw_return_pct":1.3556915379153656,"cumulative_log_residual_pct":-2.4561584930296636,"holdout_placebo_percentile":46.320346320346324,"placebo_window_n":231,"placebo_q025_pct":-10.868800753629044,"placebo_q975_pct":5.125754622396234} Knownrelatedshockdates;close-to-closeincludesnewsdayNOTexecutabletrade;residuallogpercentageNOTnetreturn. Placebooverlapping2025windowsnotindependent,populationmismatchandJulywindowincludesearnings. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; https://www.shell.com/news-and-insights/newsroom/news-and-media-releases/2026/impact-of-middle-east-conflict-on-shell-activities.html ; https://www.investegate.co.uk/index.php/announcement/rns/qatarenergy--15nf/qatarenergy-update-on-recent-developments/9489769 ; https://wms.mofcom.gov.cn/zcfb/wmgl/art/2026/art_2a795a0d55df4cada91c9fbd2a2cc13a.html

{"symbol":"APD","event":"2026-07-10","sessions":5,"end":"2026-07-16","raw_return_pct":0.4699279894519191,"cumulative_log_residual_pct":-1.1083921547652797,"holdout_placebo_percentile":34.146341463414636,"placebo_window_n":246,"placebo_q025_pct":-6.911873901317131,"placebo_q975_pct":3.7989752965270336} Knownrelatedshockdates;close-to-closeincludesnewsdayNOTexecutabletrade;residuallogpercentageNOTnetreturn. Placebooverlapping2025windowsnotindependent,populationmismatchandJulywindowincludesearnings. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; https://www.shell.com/news-and-insights/newsroom/news-and-media-releases/2026/impact-of-middle-east-conflict-on-shell-activities.html ; https://www.investegate.co.uk/index.php/announcement/rns/qatarenergy--15nf/qatarenergy-update-on-recent-developments/9489769 ; https://wms.mofcom.gov.cn/zcfb/wmgl/art/2026/art_2a795a0d55df4cada91c9fbd2a2cc13a.html

{"symbol":"APD","event":"2026-07-10","sessions":1,"end":"2026-07-10","raw_return_pct":1.245816288583055,"cumulative_log_residual_pct":-0.04816424700877439,"holdout_placebo_percentile":48.8,"placebo_window_n":250,"placebo_q025_pct":-1.9311052410803622,"placebo_q975_pct":1.7425736323248973} Knownrelatedshockdates;close-to-closeincludesnewsdayNOTexecutabletrade;residuallogpercentageNOTnetreturn. Placebooverlapping2025windowsnotindependent,populationmismatchandJulywindowincludesearnings. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; https://www.shell.com/news-and-insights/newsroom/news-and-media-releases/2026/impact-of-middle-east-conflict-on-shell-activities.html ; https://www.investegate.co.uk/index.php/announcement/rns/qatarenergy--15nf/qatarenergy-update-on-recent-developments/9489769 ; https://wms.mofcom.gov.cn/zcfb/wmgl/art/2026/art_2a795a0d55df4cada91c9fbd2a2cc13a.html

{"symbol":"APD","event":"2026-03-19","sessions":20,"end":"2026-04-16","raw_return_pct":6.303065189235828,"cumulative_log_residual_pct":0.06598848403586657,"holdout_placebo_percentile":63.63636363636363,"placebo_window_n":231,"placebo_q025_pct":-10.868800753629044,"placebo_q975_pct":5.125754622396234} Knownrelatedshockdates;close-to-closeincludesnewsdayNOTexecutabletrade;residuallogpercentageNOTnetreturn. Placebooverlapping2025windowsnotindependent,populationmismatchandJulywindowincludesearnings. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; https://www.shell.com/news-and-insights/newsroom/news-and-media-releases/2026/impact-of-middle-east-conflict-on-shell-activities.html ; https://www.investegate.co.uk/index.php/announcement/rns/qatarenergy--15nf/qatarenergy-update-on-recent-developments/9489769 ; https://wms.mofcom.gov.cn/zcfb/wmgl/art/2026/art_2a795a0d55df4cada91c9fbd2a2cc13a.html

{"symbol":"APD","event":"2026-03-19","sessions":5,"end":"2026-03-25","raw_return_pct":3.0040293567419707,"cumulative_log_residual_pct":-0.30028028719991245,"holdout_placebo_percentile":47.96747967479675,"placebo_window_n":246,"placebo_q025_pct":-6.911873901317131,"placebo_q975_pct":3.7989752965270336} Knownrelatedshockdates;close-to-closeincludesnewsdayNOTexecutabletrade;residuallogpercentageNOTnetreturn. Placebooverlapping2025windowsnotindependent,populationmismatchandJulywindowincludesearnings. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; https://www.shell.com/news-and-insights/newsroom/news-and-media-releases/2026/impact-of-middle-east-conflict-on-shell-activities.html ; https://www.investegate.co.uk/index.php/announcement/rns/qatarenergy--15nf/qatarenergy-update-on-recent-developments/9489769 ; https://wms.mofcom.gov.cn/zcfb/wmgl/art/2026/art_2a795a0d55df4cada91c9fbd2a2cc13a.html

{"symbol":"APD","event":"2026-03-19","sessions":1,"end":"2026-03-19","raw_return_pct":0.9497769463231873,"cumulative_log_residual_pct":2.761428246326453,"holdout_placebo_percentile":99.2,"placebo_window_n":250,"placebo_q025_pct":-1.9311052410803622,"placebo_q975_pct":1.7425736323248973} Knownrelatedshockdates;close-to-closeincludesnewsdayNOTexecutabletrade;residuallogpercentageNOTnetreturn. Placebooverlapping2025windowsnotindependent,populationmismatchandJulywindowincludesearnings. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; https://www.shell.com/news-and-insights/newsroom/news-and-media-releases/2026/impact-of-middle-east-conflict-on-shell-activities.html ; https://www.investegate.co.uk/index.php/announcement/rns/qatarenergy--15nf/qatarenergy-update-on-recent-developments/9489769 ; https://wms.mofcom.gov.cn/zcfb/wmgl/art/2026/art_2a795a0d55df4cada91c9fbd2a2cc13a.html

{"symbol":"APD","event":"2026-03-02","sessions":20,"end":"2026-03-27","raw_return_pct":5.973548861131504,"cumulative_log_residual_pct":12.294028576257775,"holdout_placebo_percentile":100,"placebo_window_n":231,"placebo_q025_pct":-10.868800753629044,"placebo_q975_pct":5.125754622396234} Knownrelatedshockdates;close-to-closeincludesnewsdayNOTexecutabletrade;residuallogpercentageNOTnetreturn. Placebooverlapping2025windowsnotindependent,populationmismatchandJulywindowincludesearnings. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; https://www.shell.com/news-and-insights/newsroom/news-and-media-releases/2026/impact-of-middle-east-conflict-on-shell-activities.html ; https://www.investegate.co.uk/index.php/announcement/rns/qatarenergy--15nf/qatarenergy-update-on-recent-developments/9489769 ; https://wms.mofcom.gov.cn/zcfb/wmgl/art/2026/art_2a795a0d55df4cada91c9fbd2a2cc13a.html

{"symbol":"APD","event":"2026-03-02","sessions":5,"end":"2026-03-06","raw_return_pct":-1.263776634827354,"cumulative_log_residual_pct":6.332105108876074,"holdout_placebo_percentile":99.59349593495935,"placebo_window_n":246,"placebo_q025_pct":-6.911873901317131,"placebo_q975_pct":3.7989752965270336} Knownrelatedshockdates;close-to-closeincludesnewsdayNOTexecutabletrade;residuallogpercentageNOTnetreturn. Placebooverlapping2025windowsnotindependent,populationmismatchandJulywindowincludesearnings. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; https://www.shell.com/news-and-insights/newsroom/news-and-media-releases/2026/impact-of-middle-east-conflict-on-shell-activities.html ; https://www.investegate.co.uk/index.php/announcement/rns/qatarenergy--15nf/qatarenergy-update-on-recent-developments/9489769 ; https://wms.mofcom.gov.cn/zcfb/wmgl/art/2026/art_2a795a0d55df4cada91c9fbd2a2cc13a.html

{"symbol":"APD","event":"2026-03-02","sessions":1,"end":"2026-03-02","raw_return_pct":0.3085966201322759,"cumulative_log_residual_pct":0.6897284774719343,"holdout_placebo_percentile":82,"placebo_window_n":250,"placebo_q025_pct":-1.9311052410803622,"placebo_q975_pct":1.7425736323248973} Knownrelatedshockdates;close-to-closeincludesnewsdayNOTexecutabletrade;residuallogpercentageNOTnetreturn. Placebooverlapping2025windowsnotindependent,populationmismatchandJulywindowincludesearnings. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; https://www.shell.com/news-and-insights/newsroom/news-and-media-releases/2026/impact-of-middle-east-conflict-on-shell-activities.html ; https://www.investegate.co.uk/index.php/announcement/rns/qatarenergy--15nf/qatarenergy-update-on-recent-developments/9489769 ; https://wms.mofcom.gov.cn/zcfb/wmgl/art/2026/art_2a795a0d55df4cada91c9fbd2a2cc13a.html

{"symbol":"LIN","event":"2026-07-10","sessions":20,"end":"2026-08-06","raw_return_pct":-6.709820320406321,"cumulative_log_residual_pct":-10.733651203021399,"holdout_placebo_percentile":0,"placebo_window_n":231,"placebo_q025_pct":-8.196191030947324,"placebo_q975_pct":4.32468699340713} Knownrelatedshockdates;close-to-closeincludesnewsdayNOTexecutabletrade;residuallogpercentageNOTnetreturn. Placebooverlapping2025windowsnotindependent,populationmismatchandJulywindowincludesearnings. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; https://www.shell.com/news-and-insights/newsroom/news-and-media-releases/2026/impact-of-middle-east-conflict-on-shell-activities.html ; https://www.investegate.co.uk/index.php/announcement/rns/qatarenergy--15nf/qatarenergy-update-on-recent-developments/9489769 ; https://wms.mofcom.gov.cn/zcfb/wmgl/art/2026/art_2a795a0d55df4cada91c9fbd2a2cc13a.html

{"symbol":"LIN","event":"2026-07-10","sessions":5,"end":"2026-07-16","raw_return_pct":-0.8821676118462976,"cumulative_log_residual_pct":-2.058152602354588,"holdout_placebo_percentile":13.821138211382115,"placebo_window_n":246,"placebo_q025_pct":-3.645064742374988,"placebo_q975_pct":3.2271946317333753} Knownrelatedshockdates;close-to-closeincludesnewsdayNOTexecutabletrade;residuallogpercentageNOTnetreturn. Placebooverlapping2025windowsnotindependent,populationmismatchandJulywindowincludesearnings. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; https://www.shell.com/news-and-insights/newsroom/news-and-media-releases/2026/impact-of-middle-east-conflict-on-shell-activities.html ; https://www.investegate.co.uk/index.php/announcement/rns/qatarenergy--15nf/qatarenergy-update-on-recent-developments/9489769 ; https://wms.mofcom.gov.cn/zcfb/wmgl/art/2026/art_2a795a0d55df4cada91c9fbd2a2cc13a.html

{"symbol":"LIN","event":"2026-07-10","sessions":1,"end":"2026-07-10","raw_return_pct":0.803880009929153,"cumulative_log_residual_pct":-0.18318555953828164,"holdout_placebo_percentile":44.800000000000004,"placebo_window_n":250,"placebo_q025_pct":-1.3649118132023037,"placebo_q975_pct":1.6385964187225055} Knownrelatedshockdates;close-to-closeincludesnewsdayNOTexecutabletrade;residuallogpercentageNOTnetreturn. Placebooverlapping2025windowsnotindependent,populationmismatchandJulywindowincludesearnings. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; https://www.shell.com/news-and-insights/newsroom/news-and-media-releases/2026/impact-of-middle-east-conflict-on-shell-activities.html ; https://www.investegate.co.uk/index.php/announcement/rns/qatarenergy--15nf/qatarenergy-update-on-recent-developments/9489769 ; https://wms.mofcom.gov.cn/zcfb/wmgl/art/2026/art_2a795a0d55df4cada91c9fbd2a2cc13a.html

{"symbol":"LIN","event":"2026-03-19","sessions":20,"end":"2026-04-16","raw_return_pct":2.1899464359291874,"cumulative_log_residual_pct":-4.116809524563184,"holdout_placebo_percentile":22.51082251082251,"placebo_window_n":231,"placebo_q025_pct":-8.196191030947324,"placebo_q975_pct":4.32468699340713} Knownrelatedshockdates;close-to-closeincludesnewsdayNOTexecutabletrade;residuallogpercentageNOTnetreturn. Placebooverlapping2025windowsnotindependent,populationmismatchandJulywindowincludesearnings. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; https://www.shell.com/news-and-insights/newsroom/news-and-media-releases/2026/impact-of-middle-east-conflict-on-shell-activities.html ; https://www.investegate.co.uk/index.php/announcement/rns/qatarenergy--15nf/qatarenergy-update-on-recent-developments/9489769 ; https://wms.mofcom.gov.cn/zcfb/wmgl/art/2026/art_2a795a0d55df4cada91c9fbd2a2cc13a.html

{"symbol":"LIN","event":"2026-03-19","sessions":5,"end":"2026-03-25","raw_return_pct":0.782859497321817,"cumulative_log_residual_pct":-1.3739292120044693,"holdout_placebo_percentile":26.01626016260163,"placebo_window_n":246,"placebo_q025_pct":-3.645064742374988,"placebo_q975_pct":3.2271946317333753} Knownrelatedshockdates;close-to-closeincludesnewsdayNOTexecutabletrade;residuallogpercentageNOTnetreturn. Placebooverlapping2025windowsnotindependent,populationmismatchandJulywindowincludesearnings. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; https://www.shell.com/news-and-insights/newsroom/news-and-media-releases/2026/impact-of-middle-east-conflict-on-shell-activities.html ; https://www.investegate.co.uk/index.php/announcement/rns/qatarenergy--15nf/qatarenergy-update-on-recent-developments/9489769 ; https://wms.mofcom.gov.cn/zcfb/wmgl/art/2026/art_2a795a0d55df4cada91c9fbd2a2cc13a.html

{"symbol":"LIN","event":"2026-03-19","sessions":1,"end":"2026-03-19","raw_return_pct":0.25339925834361693,"cumulative_log_residual_pct":1.4492303756856002,"holdout_placebo_percentile":96.8,"placebo_window_n":250,"placebo_q025_pct":-1.3649118132023037,"placebo_q975_pct":1.6385964187225055} Knownrelatedshockdates;close-to-closeincludesnewsdayNOTexecutabletrade;residuallogpercentageNOTnetreturn. Placebooverlapping2025windowsnotindependent,populationmismatchandJulywindowincludesearnings. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; https://www.shell.com/news-and-insights/newsroom/news-and-media-releases/2026/impact-of-middle-east-conflict-on-shell-activities.html ; https://www.investegate.co.uk/index.php/announcement/rns/qatarenergy--15nf/qatarenergy-update-on-recent-developments/9489769 ; https://wms.mofcom.gov.cn/zcfb/wmgl/art/2026/art_2a795a0d55df4cada91c9fbd2a2cc13a.html

{"symbol":"LIN","event":"2026-03-02","sessions":20,"end":"2026-03-27","raw_return_pct":-3.0300621907846317,"cumulative_log_residual_pct":2.4110372023800193,"holdout_placebo_percentile":84.4155844155844,"placebo_window_n":231,"placebo_q025_pct":-8.196191030947324,"placebo_q975_pct":4.32468699340713} Knownrelatedshockdates;close-to-closeincludesnewsdayNOTexecutabletrade;residuallogpercentageNOTnetreturn. Placebooverlapping2025windowsnotindependent,populationmismatchandJulywindowincludesearnings. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; https://www.shell.com/news-and-insights/newsroom/news-and-media-releases/2026/impact-of-middle-east-conflict-on-shell-activities.html ; https://www.investegate.co.uk/index.php/announcement/rns/qatarenergy--15nf/qatarenergy-update-on-recent-developments/9489769 ; https://wms.mofcom.gov.cn/zcfb/wmgl/art/2026/art_2a795a0d55df4cada91c9fbd2a2cc13a.html

{"symbol":"LIN","event":"2026-03-02","sessions":5,"end":"2026-03-06","raw_return_pct":-4.601720677939134,"cumulative_log_residual_pct":0.5278383893552934,"holdout_placebo_percentile":69.10569105691057,"placebo_window_n":246,"placebo_q025_pct":-3.645064742374988,"placebo_q975_pct":3.2271946317333753} Knownrelatedshockdates;close-to-closeincludesnewsdayNOTexecutabletrade;residuallogpercentageNOTnetreturn. Placebooverlapping2025windowsnotindependent,populationmismatchandJulywindowincludesearnings. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; https://www.shell.com/news-and-insights/newsroom/news-and-media-releases/2026/impact-of-middle-east-conflict-on-shell-activities.html ; https://www.investegate.co.uk/index.php/announcement/rns/qatarenergy--15nf/qatarenergy-update-on-recent-developments/9489769 ; https://wms.mofcom.gov.cn/zcfb/wmgl/art/2026/art_2a795a0d55df4cada91c9fbd2a2cc13a.html

{"symbol":"LIN","event":"2026-03-02","sessions":1,"end":"2026-03-02","raw_return_pct":0.22253571499540503,"cumulative_log_residual_pct":0.4224732935354497,"holdout_placebo_percentile":75.6,"placebo_window_n":250,"placebo_q025_pct":-1.3649118132023037,"placebo_q975_pct":1.6385964187225055} Knownrelatedshockdates;close-to-closeincludesnewsdayNOTexecutabletrade;residuallogpercentageNOTnetreturn. Placebooverlapping2025windowsnotindependent,populationmismatchandJulywindowincludesearnings. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; https://www.shell.com/news-and-insights/newsroom/news-and-media-releases/2026/impact-of-middle-east-conflict-on-shell-activities.html ; https://www.investegate.co.uk/index.php/announcement/rns/qatarenergy--15nf/qatarenergy-update-on-recent-developments/9489769 ; https://wms.mofcom.gov.cn/zcfb/wmgl/art/2026/art_2a795a0d55df4cada91c9fbd2a2cc13a.html

{"train_n":501,"holdout_n":250,"intercept_daily":0.00012823071137872433,"beta_SPY":-0.48909366813687516,"beta_XLB":1.2590726376598134,"train_r2":0.32376740852006836,"holdout_centered_r2":0.516815605578135,"holdout_predictive_r2":0.5145784544733156,"holdout_bias_daily_pct":-0.08278293337095483,"holdout_rmse_daily_pct":1.2194182101630215,"factor_correlation":0.7153308854997591} OLSlogreturnsagainstSPY/XLB,2023–24fit2025holdout;XLBincludesgasnamesandisnotunaffectedcontrol.NegativeconditionalSPYbetanotshortinstruction. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars

{"train_n":501,"holdout_n":250,"intercept_daily":0.0004523701299961736,"beta_SPY":-0.042812044593909984,"beta_XLB":0.8074853649835086,"train_r2":0.4719503039034253,"holdout_centered_r2":0.5977114315216614,"holdout_predictive_r2":0.5952179141495548,"holdout_bias_daily_pct":-0.060253643018607986,"holdout_rmse_daily_pct":0.7676933046225957,"factor_correlation":0.7153308854997591} OLSlogreturnsagainstSPY/XLB,2023–24fit2025holdout;XLBincludesgasnamesandisnotunaffectedcontrol.NegativeconditionalSPYbetanotshortinstruction. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars

{"date":"2026-09-04","close":301.18,"sma20":305.436,"sma50":300.08009999999996,"sma200":280.166625,"ATR14_Wilder_ewm":5.915320105865412,"ADR20":5.205750000000009,"ADR20_pct":1.7284514243973734,"return20_pct":-0.7398862980967258,"return60_pct":9.575784035508983,"vol20_ann_pct":19.564960515437555,"whole_shares_cap":0} All-adjustedIEXdailybars;fetchedSep6,lastSep4. ADRarithmeticH-L20,ATRWilderEWMA14initializedfirstTR. Researchonly,notexecutablequote/stoptest. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars