Notes

IssuerSep3 holdings GEV4.62%+ETN2.81%=7.43%,CAT6.72%,GE6.34%,RTX4.96%.Industryelectrical13.35%,aerospace25.44%,machinery20.55%.Expense.08%. Current weights not historical backcast. Inference:usingXLIasunaffectedcontrolforGEV/ETN mechanically partlysubtractstheirtreatment and shares supplier/customerconfounds. TheseETFcontrols characterize execution/regimes only. https://www.ssga.com/us/en/individual/etfs/state-street-industrial-select-sector-spdr-etf-xli

Issuerpage readSep6:Sep3holdings43;rail31.57%,cargo ground17.76%,passenger ground16.94%,airfreight16.66%,airlines14.87%,marine2%,cash.20%. Sep3closing83.60,median30daybidask.03%,average30dayvolume443578. These are dated issuer measures,notcurrent executable quotes or historical weights. Inference:not tanker freight proxy;oil scarcity may benefit somecarriers andraiseothers'fuelcost. https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239501/ishares-u-s-transportation-etf

Issuer statutory summary prospectus datedFeb1 2026;index25securities asDec31 2025,expense0.35%;nondiversified,semiconductor/materials/equipment concentration. Risk section explicitly says third-party/raw-material dependence,highcapex,capacity growth/aggressive pricing and cyclicality. Inference:ETF mixes supplier beneficiaries and input-constrained firms;notpure scarcity rent or unaffected control. No observed new disruption. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1137360/000113736026000117/vanecksemiconductoretfsmh4.htm

The company's 10-K filing for FY2025, which was filed on April 10, 2026, discusses supplier and customer concentration risks. The filing explicitly describes the risk of limited suppliers of centrifuges and enrichment equipment, but it does not quantify the risk of a helium input supplier outage. The customer base for Renergen is limited, and expired helium and LNG contracts may not be replaced at the same prices, which poses a renewal risk that can reduce rent capture. According to the H1 2026 segment data from the 10-Q filing, helium and LNG revenue was $1.248 million, with a net loss of $15.990 million before non-controlling interest. In Q2, the cost of sales was $1.494 million, compared to revenue of $0.654 million, resulting in a gross profit loss of $0.840 million before the commercial ramp-up of helium sales. The group's revenue of $9.303 million includes $0.8 million from collaboration, and the customer disclosure of around $1.2 million, which is approximately 15% of the total, uses rounded numbers and possibly a sales basis, but it is not possible to derive a unique exact denominator from this information. https://ir.aspisotopes.com/sec-filings/all-sec-filings/content/0001193125-26-151294/aspi-20251231.htm

A news scan found the headline about ASPI's June 2026 financial baseline. The company's second quarter filing, which is 4.6 megabytes, can be read from the issuer mirror after the web content limit. As of June 30, the company had 219.596 million in cash and 35.3 million in short term investments. The company's continuing operating cash flow for the first half of the year was -39.973 million, and the total operating cash flow was -41.094 million. The One Helium and LNG segment had one customer that accounted for 1.2 million, which is 15% of the company's consolidated revenue for the first half of the year. This segment is currently focused on LNG, not helium sales, and does not prove that helium was delivered. In the second quarter, the segment had 0.654 million in revenue and a net loss before non-controlling interests of 5.987 million. The company's cash balance is spread across isotopes, nuclear, and helium, as well as commitments, but not all of the spare funding is for helium. The company has 94.5% indirect interest in Tetra4, and the planned Noble and ENDRA transaction can alter the ownership structure. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1921865/000119312526352603/aspi-20260630.htm

A news scan found the data line with the following information: APD price is 301.18, APD FY26 adjusted EPS midpoint is 13.44, and APD price over guide is 22.409226190476193. LIN price is 477.43, LIN 2026 adjusted EPS midpoint is 17.8, and LIN price over guide is 26.82191011235955. The note says prices are as of September 4, guidance is from July 30/31, and non-GAAP FY guidance is not NTM consensus or normalized earnings, with no helium segment value identified. The data also includes BSIN full annual helium revenue in USD million, which is 4.104, BSIN monthly revenue in USD million, which is 0.342, and BSIN revenue to annualized cash GA, which is 0.57. Additionally, ASPI full nameplate He annual revenue in USD million at 600 is 15.33, and ASPI 15 percent contract revenue in USD million at 600 is 2.2995. The BSIN half-year cash reconcile in USD million is 5.9879999999999995. There is a rounding difference of 0.001 million USD between the reported cash flow line addition of 5.987 million USD and the rounded addition of 5.988 million USD. The term MMcf means million cubic feet and Mcf means thousand cubic feet. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; https://investors.airproducts.com/static-files/873bd766-037f-459f-8a09-ac5bff2165b1 ; https://assets.linde.com/-/media/global/corporate/corporate/documents/investors/quarterly-earnings/investor-call-transcript-2q26.pdf ; https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/101594/000143774926013368/ex_950842.htm ; https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1921865/000147793226003952/aspi_ex991.htm

The audit of closed trades shows the following results: there were 2 closed trades, with 2 wins, resulting in a 100 percent win rate. The average win percentage was 2.2787 percent. Since there were no losses, the average loss is undefined. The Clopper-Pearson interval, which is a statistical method, shows a 95 percent confidence interval with a low win percentage of 15.8114 percent and a high win percentage of 100 percent. This interval is for illustration only, as the trades are not independent, which makes it unsuitable for true confidence. Both trades were exposed to the same market conditions and the operator was liquidated. There is no average loss, and the helium setup did not result in a payoff. The quarter Kelly criterion, a formula used to determine the optimal bet size, is undefined, and the proposed size is 0 USD. query_trades fund=supply IDs6,3

On September 3, 2026, the holdings of the issuer included LIN at 12.97% and APD at 4.76%, which combined is 17.73%. The current weight is not based on past data from 2023 to 2024. This is because the benchmark is affected by the war and is not a neutral control. A confound, which is an external factor that affects the results, has been proven to exist. There is no related proposal for an exchange-traded fund, which is a type of investment fund that is traded on a stock exchange. https://www.ssga.com/us/en/individual/etfs/state-street-materials-select-sector-spdr-etf-xlb

A post-hoc benchmark analysis of APD was conducted, focusing on robustness rather than parameter selection. The results showed a beta of 0.5833685406910546 for the SPY ticker, and an intercept of -0.0005525069281857736. The holdout predictive r-squared value was 0.2773125870140297. The five-session log residual percentage for specific dates were as follows: on 2026-03-02 it was 0.18298563613420132, on 2026-03-19 it was 3.499060825765142, and on 2026-07-10 it was 0.7978876285177761. The analysis used the same training data from 2023-2024, and the same holdout data from 2025, and considered all three events. It only used the SPY ticker, rather than a combination of SPY and XLB tickers, which preserved the failed attribution rather than choosing a better return. Note that this analysis did not consider net trade payoff, which refers to the profit or loss from a trade after considering all costs. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars

A post-hoc analysis of the LIN model's benchmark robustness, rather than parameter selection, was conducted. The results showed a beta of 0.644993815230059 for the SPY ticker, and an intercept of 0.000015790329196572254. The holdout predictive r-squared value was 0.30877008474098977. The five-session log residual percentage for specific dates were as follows: on 2026-03-02 it was -3.415797452817415, on 2026-03-19 it was 1.0627152305287582, and on 2026-07-10 it was -0.835591663038154. The same training data from 2023-2024 was used, with 2025 as the holdout period, and all three events were considered. The analysis used SPY only, rather than a combination of SPY and XLB, which preserved the failed attribution rather than choosing a better return. This analysis did not consider net trade payoff. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars

A news scan found the headline or data line that appears to be an encrypted or encoded message, specifically 2SCKjAkzqVHrbyT63cobnTYTQ6xGtynF8RvFm2RTjHIa6/XLo0a/m+OV7NLjXty9/RH02mrF5GwuEndX7iqJz8WTXB+X/KF3OLKrcT0ecKC3wdzKh070dnoZcrM8SX6HjQ5h9flh148HXMXn293V8S8nziOVxaSX84doLLlH/uyG8LWcF9/8VvwPD+GZjLj/UlmU4kvggribThaXvXzOPdnJh97YZiuf3YKimx8PvBbvwYsD7y95Om3/5Bnb//S+8UZew+K42/GuKFvJNCy45X65HH0hcSFWeE8iRe9Wvu9aTJHciMcsuWFPk2duMuRlO4+6OvHO9+Ug9xayGUnx9/LEDLC7GMzR9yMOjOcXWPKHQb7zQiy7PPQbvov0B+WvAxFG78yx5lgY+nq3JRQwCGPy9nJwQ+/Hw9HNmHyDvJO9jiyravNjcrM9qkcj/7+T+OEwanJGsYnycmQ4N72y/PT96Bcvx5W8IvEICXrG7fI0+SNXb/qrwf1rYCO5f16xWuQpzwlR7AeHBfr9Hq8q2b7B4Sw0KpJZfzvwsAqBPC5lTThzrc/xUo64bfLkwILqwW3K/8hrSGTD6UIPGya8wpNk7qfZL7nJFOpTG7jzD5ejhE3y1cvt5rNDeJP+Ylkfq7Vf8juWGiX30dmE9x2QxZCuoGst02w5p29NnI162bWLvFotwZGn6WLeVashrdLlvJX/dPWQDeITL7J2WTbqgDz6638BVY6gqQ==. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; original models notes290/295

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