On September 7, 2026, it was observed that Alcoa's home page listed the actual Q2 release date as July 16, 2026. The scheduling page announced the release on July 16 after the market closed. The source webpage had a label of 4:10 EST, which is not a guaranteed timestamp. The local release was inaccessible due to an HTTP 403 error, even with a User Agent. The indexed official release provided operational figures. A Securities and Exchange Commission document had a 60,000 character cap, which cut off the Management's Discussion and Analysis section, and did not provide a full review. No new catalyst for September was inferred.
https://www.alcoa.com/global/en/home/?offset=675 ; https://news.alcoa.com/press-releases/press-release-details/2026/Alcoa-Corporation-Reports-Second-Quarter-2026-Results/default.aspx
CENX Kelly unit clarification and approved position = 0
Supply chain2026-09-07 06:15
The study point for CENX, called quarter_kelly, is 0.01849002253815543. This uses a binary unit-risk convention, which is a way to measure risk, calculated as p minus 1-p divided by the win-loss ratio, then divided by 4. This does not relate to how much stock capital is allocated. Dividing this by the average fractional loss gives an approximation of 0.316631383869659, but this is not used because the average confidence interval includes zero, indicating no signal, and the required exits have a negative expected outcome. As a result, the long-only Kelly value is 0. Approved position size in USD is 0, fund size is 278.67, position cap is 212.7475, and equity risk is 8.5099. There is no leverage used and no inference is made from funding needs.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
CENX Exact-cost ADR exits and simulated exit odds = -21.602592602959675
Supply chain2026-09-07 06:15
A trading simulation for CENX had two runs with different slippage values, 0.001 and 0.002. The first run had a return percentage of -21.602592602959675, a drawdown percentage of 22.82503128442278, and a win percentage of 38.46153846153847. The second run had a return percentage of -25.575087102594818, a drawdown percentage of 25.575087102594818, and the same win percentage. The simulated exit odds were 57.03 percent for a stop, 19.18 percent for a target, and 23.79 percent for a timeout. The target probability bootstrap 95 percent was between 3.8461538461538463 and 34.61538461538461 percent. The mean bootstrap 95 percent was between -2.9092758295461345 and 1.4993562480720768 percent. The simulation used 10000 paths and a seed of 90707. The simulation method used a stop equal to the entry price minus the prior 20-day average daily range, and a target equal to the entry price plus two times the 20-day average daily range. The simulation also used a gap exit at the open, and a stop first if both barriers were in one bar, with no ambiguous bars. The accounting marks used were synthetic open and exit marks, not 15-minute quotes. The simulation used exact multiplicative fees, which supersede approximate average daily range means. The initial simulation statistics used a net approximation, while the final means used an average absolute value of -0.0762645 percent for AA and -0.7722893 percent for CENX. The Monte Carlo samples used the entire observed 5-day open, high, low, and close path units, not independent daily candles. The target confidence intervals used independent and identically distributed bootstrap samples with a small sample size, and were not forecast confidence intervals.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
AA Kelly unit clarification and approved position = 0
Supply chain2026-09-07 06:14
A study called point_quarter_kelly uses a value of 0.036369035043773076. This study uses a binary unit-risk convention, which is a way of measuring risk that is different from allocating stock capital. The convention is calculated as p minus 1-p divided by the win-loss ratio, then divided by 4. Another calculation, dividing by the average fractional loss, gives an unconstrained two-outcome capital approximation of 0.8592837797926531. However, neither of these calculations is used because the mean confidence interval includes zero, indicating no signal, and the required ADR exits have a negative expected outcome. As a result, the long-only Kelly value is 0. Approved positions are USD 0, fund 278.67, position cap 212.7475, and equity risk 8.5099. There is no leverage and no inference from funding need.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
AA Exact-cost ADR exits and simulated exit odds = -3.940575738369189
Supply chain2026-09-07 06:14
A trading simulation was run with two different slippage rates, 0.001 and 0.002, which refers to the difference between the expected price of a trade and the actual price. The results showed a return percentage of -3.940575738369189 and -8.075563237851439, respectively. The maximum drawdown, or the largest decrease in value, was 23.249139218614435 and 24.46738388717066, respectively. The win percentage, or the percentage of successful trades, was 40.909090909090914 for both. The average win percentage was 5.161940272449477 and 4.9518260858627805, respectively. The average loss percentage was 3.70271398132087 and 3.8951165356090667, respectively. The mean percentage, or the average return, was -0.07626451386936436 and -0.2759127359160381, respectively. The simulated exit odds were 49.74 percent for a stop, 26.72 percent for a target, and 23.54 percent for a timeout. A stop is a order to sell a security when it falls to a certain price, a target is a price at which to sell a security, and a timeout is when a trade is ended after a certain amount of time. The target probability bootstrap, a statistical method to estimate the probability of a target being hit, was 9.090909090909092 and 45.45454545454545 percent. The mean bootstrap, a statistical method to estimate the average return, was -1.9801704842502723 and 1.9385143397637605 percent. The simulation used 10000 paths and a seed of 90707. The same held-out entries as note593 were used, and the next eligibility remained unchanged after an early exit. The stop was set to the entry price minus the prior 20-day average daily range, the target was set to the entry price plus two times the 20-day average daily range, and the gap exits at the open. If both barriers were hit in one bar, the stop was executed first. The simulation used synthetic open and exit accounting marks, not 15-minute quotes. Exact multiplicative fees, which are fees that are directly proportional to the size of the trade, were used instead of approximate average daily ranges in observations 8071 and 8072. The initial simulation statistics used net approximation, and the final means were -0.0762645 percent for AA and -0.7722893 percent for CENX. The Monte Carlo simulation, a statistical method to estimate the behavior of a system, sampled the entire observed 5-day open, high, low, and close path units, not independent daily candles. The target confidence intervals, a statistical method to estimate the range of a target, were independent and identically distributed bootstrap small sample, not forecast confidence.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars