Notes

A news scan found the headline 'ELG.DE R92104 fixed breakout L10 2026_2026-09-18 slippage0.0045'. The trading data for the window from 2026 to 2026-09-18 shows the following results: the return percentage was 18.954440969609472, the drawdown percentage was 33.56279069658028, and the win rate was 42.857142857142854. The data is based on 7 trades, with a mean trade percentage of 4.117028271127828, an average win percentage of 24.954592602342355, and an average loss percentage of -11.511144977283067. The half Kelly criterion is 0.08249039238455419. The reconcile error is 6.106226635438361e-16. The actual history ends on September 16, but the window label was requested for September 18, and the closes for September 17-18 are missing, with no imputation. The dividends were adjusted for OHLC, EUR return, but not USD executed PnL. https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v8/finance/chart/ELG.DE?range=10y&interval=1d&events=div%2Csplits

A news scan found the headline 'ELG.DE R92104 fixed breakout L10 2026_2026-09-18 slippage0.0015'. The trading data for the window from 2026 to 2026-09-18 shows the following results: the return percentage was 24.056980512050654, the drawdown percentage was 32.15223228418003, and the win rate was 42.857142857142854. There were 7 trades, with a mean trade percentage of 4.743614428683819. The average win percentage was 25.70658119967141 and the average loss percentage was -10.978610649556874. The half Kelly criterion, a measure of optimal bet size, was 0.09226459154250458. The reconcile error, a measure of data consistency, was 1.942890293094024e-16. Actual history ends on September 16, but the window label was requested for September 18, and the closes for September 17-18 are missing, with no imputation. Dividends were adjusted for OHLC, or open, high, low, and close prices, in Euros, and the return was calculated, not the executed profit and loss in US dollars. https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v8/finance/chart/ELG.DE?range=10y&interval=1d&events=div%2Csplits

A news scan found the headline 'ELG.DE R92104 fixed breakout L10 2023_2025 slippage0.0045'. The given data is a set of trading results for the stock ELG.DE from 2023 to 2025. The results include a return percentage of -9.022404959041523, a drawdown percentage of 52.30271634536632, and a win rate of 27.27272727272727. There were 22 trades, with a mean trade percentage of 0.4396147015830107, an average win percentage of 22.812369847560785, and an average loss percentage of -7.950168478158654. The half Kelly criterion, a measure of optimal bet size, is 0.00963544569285546. A reconcile error, a measure of data consistency, is 1.8457457784393227e-15. The actual trading history ends on September 16, but the data from September 17 to 18 is missing and was not estimated. The data is adjusted for dividends and uses Euro as the currency for return calculations, not US dollars for executed profit and loss. https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v8/finance/chart/ELG.DE?range=10y&interval=1d&events=div%2Csplits

A news scan found the headline 'ELG.DE R92104 fixed breakout L10 2023_2025 slippage0.0015'. The given data is a set of trading results for the stock ELG.DE from 2023 to 2025. The results include a return percentage of 3.8154241802067648, a drawdown percentage of 47.81081302594027, and a win rate of 27.27272727272727. There were 22 trades with a mean trade percentage of 1.0440698352657. The average win percentage was 23.551466345039938 and the average loss percentage was -7.396203855899638. A calculation called the half Kelly criterion, which is a way to determine the optimal bet size, was 0.022165707645748906. The data also mentions a reconcile error of 5.898059818321144e-16, which is a very small discrepancy. The actual trading history ends on September 16, but there is a request for data up to September 18, although the closing prices for September 17 and 18 are missing and were not estimated. The trading data is adjusted for dividends and is based on the Euro, with the return calculated in Euros, not the executed profit and loss in US dollars. https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v8/finance/chart/ELG.DE?range=10y&interval=1d&events=div%2Csplits

A news scan found the headline about ELG.DE with a fixed breakout strategy, labeled as R92104, and a window from 2016 to 2022 with a slippage of 0.0045. The results show a return percentage of -59.44503929398045 and a drawdown percentage of 68.42955517679925. The win rate is 24.390243902439025, with a total of 41 trades, and a mean trade percentage of -1.401227583887585. The average win percentage is 20.31142436547991 and the average loss percentage is -8.405308857877097. The half Kelly criterion is 0. The actual history ends in September 2016, but a window label was requested for September 2018, although the closes for September 2017 to 2018 are missing, with no imputation. The dividends are adjusted for OHLC, with returns in EUR, not USD executed PnL. https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v8/finance/chart/ELG.DE?range=10y&interval=1d&events=div%2Csplits

A news scan found the headline 'ELG.DE R92104 fixed breakout L10 2016_2022 slippage0.0015'. This refers to a trading strategy for the stock ELG.DE, with a fixed breakout and a parameter L of 10, from the years 2016 to 2022, and a slippage of 0.0015. The results of this strategy are as follows: from 2016 to 2022, the return was -48.13415364642348 percent, the drawdown was 60.34473938555224 percent, and the win rate was 24.390243902439025 percent, with 41 trades, a mean trade of -0.8078508137874236 percent, an average win of 21.035469935691005 percent, and an average loss of -7.854083313619176 percent. The half Kelly criterion is 0. The reconcile error is 1.0547118733938987e-15. The actual trading history ends on September 16, but the window label requested is from September 18, although the closing prices from September 17 to 18 are missing, and no imputation was done. The dividends were adjusted for the open, high, low, and close prices, and the return is in euros, not the executed profit and loss in US dollars. https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v8/finance/chart/ELG.DE?range=10y&interval=1d&events=div%2Csplits

A news release from September 9 at 07:00 ET by the supplier of ELG.DE, also known as R92104 SK, confirms a contract to supply 130nm products through 2037. The release mentions that mass production of 2027E550.01 is planned for 2027. This announcement was coordinated with Elmos, meaning that there are two interested parties involved, and it does not provide independent measurements of demand. The release does not disclose the number of wafers, price, or profit. https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/sk-keyfoundry-expands-collaboration-with-elmos-on-130nm-technology-and-signs-long-term-wafer-supply-agreement-302871138.html

A trade association's model, last seen on September 21, 2026, forecasts 7.9 million wafer per month capacity for the third quarter of 2026, which is a 3% increase. The forecast also shows increases of 2% for 2027, 2% for 2028, and 1% for 2029. Equipment spending is expected to be $7.6 billion, with a 9% increase, followed by decreases of 9%, 16%, and 18% in subsequent years. This forecast is for installed capacity, which is different from actual production capacity, and does not take into account utilization rates or lead times. The forecast is based on a dataset of 348 fabrication plants, but the full details are only available to paid subscribers. https://www.semi.org/cn/products-services/market-data/200mm-fab-outlook

A news scan found the headline 'ELG.DE R92104 latest completed quoted close EUR'. This is a data line showing that the stock ELG.DE had a quoted close of EUR 142.6 on September 18 at 15:35:06 UTC, according to Worldquote, which was retrieved on September 21 at 04:00 UTC. The EURUSD exchange rate was 1.1478 at 04:03:09 UTC on September 21, also from Worldquote. This information is based on delayed quotes, which are not current prices and cannot be used to buy or sell stocks. https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v8/finance/chart/ELG.DE

A presentation from September 16 found that after a cancellation on June 8, ELG.DE had 17.160 million shares. As of June 30, the company owned 3,747 of its own shares, according to the first half report. On May 11, an anchor sale of 1.86 million existing shares was made at a price of 176 EUR, which was a sale by a shareholder, not a new issuance of shares by the company itself. https://www.elmos.com/fileadmin/elmos-website/about-us/investor_relations/finanzberichte/2026/20260916_investor_presentation.pdf

A primary customer has expanded its 18-year relationship with ELG.DE to include 130nm deep-trench isolation, starting on September 9, 2026. The customer sampled E550.01 and plans to start serial production in 2027, with eFlash production also planned for 2027. The agreement guarantees capacity through 2037, but does not specify the number of wafers or prices. The process-specific capacity is not immediately interchangeable with the capacity in Dortmund, meaning it cannot be easily used in place of the Dortmund capacity. https://www.elmos.com/english/about-elmos/investor/financial-news/news/elmos-and-sk-keyfoundry-expand-their-collaboration-on-130nm-technology-and-agree-on-long-term-wafer-capacity.html

The final accounting for the LFUS R92104 Dortmund acquisition is now complete. As of July 29, 2026, the company's June 27 10Q report shows that the acquisition was closed on December 31, 2024, with an approximate value of 94 million euros, which is close to the 93 million euros announced in 2023. The net purchase price in US dollars was 95.942 million, which includes goodwill of 57.321 million and property, plant, and equipment of 30.132 million. The different currency and date definitions, as well as the distinction between gross and net values, mean that there is no apparent loss from the purchase based on the fee ratio. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/889331/000162828026050481/lfus-20260627.htm

A financial report from February 19, 2026, shows that Arrow had 9.5% net sales, with 65% coming from foreign countries and 24% from China. The report lists some risks, including problems with suppliers, integrating acquired companies, and tariffs. As of December 27, there were no guarantees of debt to third parties that are not included in the balance sheet, as defined by the SEC, which does not contradict a later release about guarantees within the group or by contract. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/889331/000162828026009585/lfus-20251227.htm

A review of the audited financial year 2025 report, pages 63-65 and 81, found that no single customer accounted for more than 10% of sales in fiscal year 2025. The company relies on several foundries and Outsourced Semiconductor Assembly and Test providers, mostly located in Asia, which means it still depends on individual partners. The cost of assembling products using gold is not fully covered. The company has fixed obligations to buy wafers, which can turn into expenses for inventory or unused capacity if demand is weak. The report did not specify the percentage of sales from any particular supplier. https://www.elmos.com/fileadmin/elmos-website/about-us/investor_relations/finanzberichte/2026/elmos-gb-2025-e.pdf

As of August 4, 2026, the company expects sales growth of 12 percent, plus or minus 2 percentage points, compared to the fiscal year 2025 sales of 582.6 million euros. The operating EBIT, which is earnings before interest and taxes, is expected to be between 23 and 26 percent. Capital expenditures, which are expenses for things like equipment and property, excluding development costs, are expected to be around 5 percent. The operating adjusted free cash flow, which is the amount of cash available after expenses, is expected to be 19 percent, plus or minus 2 percentage points. The company assumes a foreign exchange rate of 1.15 US dollars per euro. This guidance does not include the effects of cash-settled incentives and was released before the September fee. https://www.elmos.com/fileadmin/elmos-website/about-us/investor_relations/finanzberichte/2026/20260804_q2_2026_e.pdf

The company ELG.DE released its first half report on August 4. The report showed revenue of 314.5 million euros, which is an increase of 15.4 percent. The operating EBIT, which is a measure of profitability called earnings before interest and taxes, was 75.8 million euros, a 24.1 percent increase. The reported EBIT was 63.7 million euros, a 20.3 percent increase. The net income was 47.3 million euros, and the earnings per share, which is the profit per share of stock, was 2.75 euros. The company had a net cash position of 15.7 million euros, and its cash and securities totaled 116.6 million euros. The financial debt was 100.9 million euros. The backlog, which is the amount of work or orders that the company has to complete, for the next three months is more than the sales of the previous three months, which is not the standard way of measuring order intake and billing. https://www.elmos.com/fileadmin/elmos-website/about-us/investor_relations/finanzberichte/2026/20260804_q2_2026_e.pdf

A news scan found the report for the first half of 2026: the operating cash flow was 52.984 million euros, minus 10.536 million euros for intangible items, minus 8.328 million euros for property, plant, and equipment, plus 0.353 million euros for disposals, which equals 34.473 million euros in cash-inclusive free cash flow. Management's operating-adjusted free cash flow was 55.5 million euros, which excludes 21.063 million euros in incentive payments. The capital expenditure for the first half was 8.8 million euros, which does not include capitalized development costs, and the total cash investments were 18.864 million euros. In the second quarter, the cash-inclusive free cash flow was -6.199 million euros. https://www.elmos.com/fileadmin/elmos-website/about-us/investor_relations/finanzberichte/2026/20260804_q2_2026_e.pdf

A news scan found the report for the first half of the year, which ended on June 30, 2026. According to the report, the company had to make a cash settlement, which reduced the retained earnings by 112.243 million euros, and added 12.081 million euros to the profit and loss statement. The company also made cash payments of 21.063 million euros in the first half of the year. The provision for incentives is tied to the value of the company's stock, which is traded under the ticker ELG.DE, and its value can change, it is not a fixed debt and not all of it has to be paid immediately. https://www.elmos.com/fileadmin/elmos-website/about-us/investor_relations/finanzberichte/2026/20260804_q2_2026_e.pdf

A financial report for ELG.DE, published in March 2026, lists the company's future minimum contractual obligations as of December 31, 2025, which total 38.959 million euros, compared to the previous year. These obligations include a fixed purchase obligation in Dortmund, as well as leases, maintenance, insurance, and delivery obligations. The total obligations due in the following years are: 122.470 million euros in 2026, 33.956 million euros in 2027, 21.089 million euros in 2028, 14.202 million euros in 2029, and 0.027 million euros in 2030. Note that these obligations should not be considered as fab wafers, which refers to a type of semiconductor manufacturing, or as part of the terms amended in September. https://www.elmos.com/fileadmin/elmos-website/about-us/investor_relations/finanzberichte/2026/elmos-gb-2025-e.pdf

A primary counterparty report from September 2017 about a September 2015 agreement says that LFUS will pay Elmos. This payment will be recognized in the third quarter. It releases cross-guarantees, which are like insurance policies between companies, and changes some restrictions on transferring and selling goods. However, it does not say how much exposure, or risk, is being waived or how the price and volume of wafers, which are like semiconductor materials, will change. The report also notes that the payment has not been verified as received. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/889331/000088933126000014/lfus-20260915.htm

A news scan found the correlation matrix for R92102 2026 six-name plus SPY as follows: the correlation between LFUS and itself is 1, between LFUS and ATI is 0.52026, between LFUS and VSH is 0.70093, between LFUS and UMC is 0.30646, between LFUS and PXS is 0.08087, between LFUS and SEI is 0.57645, and between LFUS and SPY is 0.51806. The correlation between ATI and itself is 1, between ATI and VSH is 0.4511, between ATI and UMC is 0.32588, between ATI and PXS is 0.07312, between ATI and SEI is 0.43876, and between ATI and SPY is 0.49619. The correlation between VSH and itself is 1, between VSH and UMC is 0.39462, between VSH and PXS is 0.06847, between VSH and SEI is 0.54354, and between VSH and SPY is 0.52934. The correlation between UMC and itself is 1, between UMC and PXS is 0.07484, between UMC and SEI is 0.31002, and between UMC and SPY is 0.35484. The correlation between PXS and itself is 1, between PXS and SEI is 0.08328, and between PXS and SPY is 0.02984. The correlation between SEI and itself is 1, and between SEI and SPY is 0.44574. The correlation between SPY and itself is 1. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars

A news scan found the following data line: symbol SEI, with 1001 bars, had a return percentage of -16.322711902346764, and a buy and hold percentage of 606.0790273556231. The maximum drawdown percentage was 33.408286613658476, the win rate was 30, and the average trade percentage was -0.09485011601769507, over 60 trades. This was a test with no explicit costs or holdout, and it used a different policy from the frozen costed tests. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars

A news scan found the headline 'PXS R92102 second cohort CLI diagnostic'. The results for the stock symbol PXS are as follows: the return percentage was -45.10630705273645, the buy and hold percentage was 78.0048076923077, the maximum drawdown percentage was 57.176695209332905, the win rate was 23.809523809523807, and the average trade percentage was -0.9216437786633852, based on 63 trades and 1001 bars. This test did not include explicit costs or a holdout, and it used a different policy than the frozen costed tests. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars

A news scan found the following data line: symbol UMC had 1001 bars, a return percentage of 31.868212366881355, a buy and hold percentage of 308.8039867109635, a maximum drawdown percentage of 26.465030050813258, a win rate of 40.27777777777778, and an average trade percentage of 0.46660066703609626, based on 72 trades, with no explicit costs or holdout, and a different policy from frozen costed tests. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars