Notes

The issuer reported on August 5 for the quarter that ended on June 30. The Oswego hot mill was restarted in early June and is still ramping up, which resulted in a shipment hit of 33 kilotons. The earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization, or EBITDA, were 516 million dollars, which includes a net benefit of 18 million dollars from insurance timing. The operating cash flow was negative 455 million dollars, and the adjusted free cash flow was negative 1.1 billion dollars, resulting in a net leverage of 4.5 times. Commissioning is underway at Bay Minette. It is possible to have a positive rent and a negative cash flow in the same quarter. This is an example from an independent company, not a causal stock study, and is separate from CSTM. https://investors.novelis.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/1425/novelis-reports-first-quarter-fiscal-year-2027-results

The issuer's second quarter results for July 2022 show net sales of $1256.6 million, compared to $823.1 million, with hedged alloy metal sales of $819.6 million, up from $448.9 million. Conversion revenue was $437 million, up from $374.2 million. The hedged alloy cost had a direct passthrough of 83% higher. In the first half of the year, the company had working capital funding of $118 million and capital expenditures of $44 million. The full year guidance excludes the continuing metal lag tailwinds. This information contradicts the idea that all customers immediately absorb higher costs, which is a claim made without evidence by some fabricators. https://investors.kaiseraluminum.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/440/kaiser-aluminum-corporation-reports-record-second-quarter-2026-financial-results

A news scan found the headline related to the CSTM R91104 Annual supplier structure. The FY2025 10K report, which is a yearly financial report, shows that the top 10 metal suppliers make up 49% of the purchase volume. The company has annual and multi-year contracts for primary, remelt, scrap, and alloy supplies. The goal is to achieve metal neutrality through a method called passthrough, which means passing on the cost of metal price changes to customers, and hedging, which is a way to manage risk. The company also has specialized relationships with qualified suppliers. Additionally, increasing recycling efforts reduces the need for external slab supplies. However, the report does not provide information on the current share of suppliers from the Emirates Global Aluminium, or EGA, or guarantee that there will be no shortages. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1563411/000156341126000057/cstm-20251231.htm

The issuer reported on July 29 that the company's adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, or EBITDA, for the second quarter was 439 million, which includes 129 million in non-cash metal lag, a term that refers to the delay between when a company buys or sells metal and when it actually pays or receives cash for it. If we exclude this metal lag, the company's EBITDA was 310 million, compared to 165 million in the revised comparative period for 2025. The company shipped 381 thousand tons of metal, which is a 1 percent decrease from the same period last year. The company's cash flow from operations was 161 million and its free cash flow was 90 million. For the first half of the year, the company's free cash flow was 95 million. The company forecasts that its full-year free cash flow will be more than 300 million and its EBITDA, excluding the metal lag, will be between 980 and 1020 million. Management reported that the company benefited from shortages in the automotive industry and from recycling. The company also noted that the price lag, which is the difference between the price of metal when it is bought or sold and the price when it is actually paid for, does not equal the recurring cash, or the cash that the company expects to receive regularly. Additionally, the company stated that the attribution of certain benefits to the Oswego facility is an inference, or a conclusion based on evidence, rather than an actual allocation of funds by the issuer. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1563411/000156341126000190/a2026-q2xearningspressre.htm

The issuer's second quarter results for July 2016 show EBITDA of 901 million, which is an increase of 306 million from the previous quarter. Operating cash flow was 608 million and free cash flow was 422 million. Aluminum production was 636 thousand tons, a 5 percent increase from the previous quarter, while alumina production was 2.2 million tons, a 6 percent decrease. For the third quarter, it is expected that tariff cost improvements of 10 million will be offset by unfavorable alumina costs of 10 million in the aluminum segment, but there will be a net improvement of 10 million in the upstream alumina segment. A direct fetch of 403 was attempted, but a full read of the issuer's information was successful through the web. https://news.alcoa.com/press-releases/press-release-details/2026/Alcoa-Corporation-Reports-Second-Quarter-2026-Results/default.aspx

The company's annual report for FY2025, re-read on September 11, shows the following power supplier and concentration exposures: Grundartangi provides 70% of the power, which is fully indexed to the London Metal Exchange, and 30% is fixed with a London Metal Exchange component. Sebree gets its power from the MISO market via Kenergy until May 2028. Mt. Holly's cost of service is in effect through 2031. In terms of sales, Glencore accounts for 54.0% of 2025 sales, and the company's year-end ownership is 36.4%. Sales are based on the London Metal Exchange price plus regional and product premiums. The company also has limited suppliers for coke, pitch, and cathodes, and has take-or-pay obligations that can persist even after production is curtailed. These are existing risk exposures, not new failures. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/949157/000162828026013788/cenx-20251231.htm

The issuer of CENX reported its Q2 results on August 6. The company had shipments of 130,632 tonnes, which is higher than the 122,865 tonnes in Q1. Revenue was $752.1 million, compared to $649.2 million, and adjusted EBITDA was $326.9 million, compared to $231.4 million. The company guided $325-345 million for Q3. Improvements were driven by restarts and favorable realized metal and power prices, but were offset by raw materials costs. A refund of $94.3 million from July 45X is expected in a later period. As of June, the company had $343.4 million in cash and $480 million in debt, with 98,993,295 shares outstanding. The consolidated figures include alumina, and the revenue divided by aluminum tonnes does not represent the pure realized metal price, which is a price that does not include other costs or factors, also known as the price at which metal is sold. https://centuryaluminum.com/insights/century-aluminum-company-reports-second-quarter-2026-results/

A news scan found the headline about EGA R91104 Recycling, which has a gross capacity that is a blend of metal. The operator page was observed on September 11, and it showed an undated production capacity of 185,000 tons per year, a melting furnace capacity of 90,000 tons per year, and a scrap sorting capacity of 150,000 tons per year. This facility blends recycled and primary aluminum, which means that the full 185,000 tons per year cannot be counted as new primary substitution. https://www.ega.ae/en/about-us/operations/al-taweelah-recycling-plant

The issuer reported that as of April 3, 2026, Al Taweelah is expected to produce 1.6 million tonnes of cast metal and 2.4 million tonnes of refinery output, with an initial recovery rate of up to 12 months. The on-water, UAE, and overseas inventory buffers are not quantified. The annual cast tonnes may not be equal to the cell hot-metal capacity, which refers to the maximum amount of hot metal that can be produced by an electrolytic cell, a device used to extract metal from ore. https://media.ega.ae/update-on-egas-al-taweelah-site/

The issuer's report for the first half of 2026 shows the following results: cast metal production was 1006 kilotons versus 1420 kilotons, and sales were 939 kilotons versus 1373 kilotons, and alumina production was 602 kilotons versus 1142 kilotons. Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization, which is a measure of a company's profitability, were 4506 million AED versus 4065 million AED, and operating cash flow was 1484 versus 3441. As of Monday, August 10, there were 227 cells. The company is using alternative ports to reduce stocks in the UAE, and forecasts that pre-incident shipping levels will return if the Hormuz Strait reopens. The company's inventory of strategic inputs is affecting its cash position, and management has an incentive to emphasize the company's resilience. https://media.ega.ae/ega-delivers-resilient-h1-2026-performance-maintaining-operational-and-supply-chain-continuity-amid-regional-disruption/

The issuer reported that as of August 26, 2026, 315 out of 1262 cells were restarted at the Al Taweelah facility. It will take about one week for these cells to stabilize, and some hot metal will be used for subsequent starts. The company forecasts that it will reach full production by the first quarter of 2027, but this is not guaranteed. The refinery is currently operating at around 50% capacity, and the smelter's recovery does not depend on the refinery being fully restarted. https://media.ega.ae/egas-al-taweelah-smelter-restoration-reaches-25-completion-milestone/

A news scan found the trade ledger notes for R91102. The notes describe two historical closed trades, FRO id 6 and STNG id 3, that occurred from September 2 to September 4. These trades were operator liquidations, resulting in returns of 3.805163% and 0.752257%. The simple mean return was 2.278710%. The profit and loss, or PnL, was 4.977287 USD. The trades had a 100% win rate, with 2 wins and no observed losses, out of 2 trades, referred to as N2. There were no stop or target terminations, and the entry stop was null, meaning no stop-loss order was set. Since there were no contemporaneous quotes, slippage, which refers to the difference between expected and actual trade prices, could not be measured. The final reading at 02:20 showed zero open, pending, or closing trades. It was not possible to fit the Kelly criterion, a formula used to determine optimal bet size, due to the forced wins in the 2 trades, referred to as N2. query_trades fund=supply

A news scan found the headline 'VIST R91102 valuation sensitivity using weighted-share proxy'. The data provided includes a weighted share proxy of 108.909959, a price of 78.95, an equity proxy of 8598.441263050001, and an enterprise value proxy of 11655.24126305. The annualized Q2 EBITDA is 3220.8, with a proxy EV EBITDA of 3.6187410776980875. The ex-deal ex-WC annual FCF is 867.2, and the proxy FCF yield is 10.085548920670195 percent. Other values include an oil minus 15 gross annual of 741.462825, and an assumed 60 percent cash loss of 444.87769499999996, resulting in a stress proxy FCF yield of 4.911614699455373 percent. The data is based on Q2 weighted average shares, which have not been verified against the current diluted share count. The price source is from September 10, and the net debt is from Q2. The quarter annualization is not a forecast, and the 60 percent cash retention assumption is not measured. https://vista-energy.cdn.prismic.io/vista-energy/u8Gi03xxlMW-RgdX_Vista-EarningsreleaseQ22026.pdf

A news scan found the data line for LEU, which includes the following information: symbol LEU, 1030 bars, return percentage 11.061151045567463, buy and hold percentage 378.5693683299682, maximum drawdown percentage 54.91217098737362, win rate 39.24050632911392, average trade percentage 0.36370925472014615, and a sample size of 79. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=iex

A news scan found the data line for CCJ, which includes the following information: symbol CCJ, 1030 bars, return percentage -2.816180153545833, buy and hold percentage 295.3346855983773, maximum drawdown percentage 25.390008146797623, win rate 36.708860759493675, average trade percentage 0.009522632475791765, and a sample of 79. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=iex

A news scan found the data line for SWKS, which includes the following information: symbol SWKS, 1030 bars, return percentage -7.237841734766315, buy and hold percentage -24.879356568364607, maximum drawdown percentage 25.606925544077797, win rate 29.82456140350877, average trade percentage -0.29703075722808475, and a sample of 57. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=iex

A news scan found the data line for VIST, which includes the following information: symbol is VIST, there are 1030 bars, the return percentage is -4.4217, the buy and hold percentage is 825.82, the maximum drawdown percentage is 32.93, the win rate is 29.58, and the average trade percentage is 0.0233, based on a sample of 71. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=iex

A news scan found the headline '02:05UTClatestSep10Form4accession0001193125-26-387811', which is a recent filing. This filing, already identified in a prior review, shows 19 shares were withheld for tax purposes. There is no new information about operative aircraft instruments in recent forms. The primary information from the filing indicates that the company did not claim a new delivery or profit. https://data.sec.gov/submissions/CIK0000040533.json

A news scan found the headline about a recent all-form filing review for BWEN. The review of the 8K/A filing with the number 0001437749-26-028689, which can be found at bwen20260820_8ka.htm, was done on August 21. The review found no new completion or residual cash filing. This does not prove that the transaction is unchanged or completed, and there is no order rule revival. https://data.sec.gov/submissions/CIK0001120370.json

A news scan found the headline that at 02:05, there were requests with error code 403. At 02:16, the web opens navigation but finds no August data. The prior revenue of 514,806 NTD, which is an increase of 53.3%, is from a prior journal that has not been revalidated in this run. The correction status is currently unknown and there is no headline entry. https://investor.tsmc.com/english/monthly-revenue/2026

A news scan found the headline about an AVAV R91102 conference replay recovery. From 02:05 to 06UTC, a direct replay was available at https://investor.avinc.com/news-events/events-and-presentations, but no commentary could be accessed to determine if there were any changes in acceptance or cash. The archived label for the replay is not working. https://event.summitcast.com/view/e82pfcbT4UwH79PoqVE5jB/FdrSzAFqDzzqoXN2PC5xKh

A news scan found the headline about XLE R91102 EIA exports. According to a table from the week of September 4, 2026, at 02:05 UTC, the total exports were 11,868 thousand barrels per day, which is a change of -28 from 11,896. Crude exports were 3,417, compared to 4,483, which is a decrease of 1,066. Product exports were 8,451, compared to 7,413, which is an increase of 1,038. These numbers are the same as the prior period and do not reflect the current period as of September 11. This is a primary government weekly estimate, not an issuer profit statement. https://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/table7.csv

A news scan found the headline 'LPG R91102 ACP August and maintenance reread'. The primary PDF for September 10 was recovered using cryptography. According to the data, the August canal waters had 34.90 hours in transit and 11.27 hours waiting. There were 1029 transits with an average of 33.19 per day. The Neo had 175 out of 178 slots filled, which is 98.31 percent, and there were 204 out of 227 auctions, which is 89.87 percent. Maintenance for the Panamax is tentatively scheduled for September 14-17 and 22, and October 3, but this is not proof of actual closure of the full canal. The month's statistics remain unchanged from the previous report and do not include new paid fixtures. https://pancanal.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/adv-34-2026-monthly-canal-operations-summary-august-2026.pdf

A news scan found the headline about ALM R91102. On July 1, management reported that processing commenced in June. The stockpile from the first quarter was 120,000 tons with a grade of 0.24% WO3, which is a type of tungsten oxide, a metal used in various industries. In the second quarter, an additional 19,700 tons with a grade of 0.35% were added. The total stockpile is 139,700 tons with a blended grade of approximately 0.25%. The development cost was 214.6 million. The gross contained WO3 at the rounded blend is 349.25 tons before recovery and payability, which refers to the amount of metal that can be extracted and sold. This is not the saleable tonnage or cash. The actual customer acceptance, recovery, and margin were not quantified in this release. Phase 1 commissioning was completed on March 16, which was a different milestone. Two headlines should not be counted as independent cash corroboration. https://almonty.com/almonty-commences-processing-operations-at-sangdong-mine/

A news scan found the headline about VIST R91102 annual export capacity and customer concentration. As of April 28, 2026, the company filed its FY25 20F report, which is an annual report. The report states that the company has an annual export capacity of 144 thousand barrels per day via pipeline, plus an additional 37 thousand barrels per day via trucking. The Duplicar facility was fully online as of March 2025. The company has a contract to transport 33 thousand barrels per day of VMON to Trasandinoto in Chile. There is also a future contract for 50 thousand barrels per day of VMOS with a firm allocation, although not all of it is currently in service. In terms of crude oil revenue for FY25, the top customers were ENAP at 21%, Raizen at 15%, Trafigura at 15%, and Trafigura Pte at 15%. For crude oil sales, the top customers were AR Chevron at 29%, ENAP at 22%, Trafigura at 16%, and Raizen at 12%. The report also disclosed a high credit concentration, which refers to a situation where a large portion of the company's revenue comes from a small number of customers. Additionally, the report notes that the current oil production of 135.427 thousand barrels per day for Q2 should not be netted against the old capacity, and fungibility, which means the ability to substitute one type of oil for another, should not be assumed. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1762506/000119312526187099/d936340d20f.htm