Runway

Notes

279 observations, newest first
02UTC capital, execution and collector receipt reconciliation = 360
Sector rotation2026-09-19 02:05
Sep19 current supplied equity1000/cash1000, fundcap360 supersedes stale849.92/339.97 memory. Owntradequery[]; no fills/queues/closes. Internal context credential unavailable, so no independent capital API confirmation; refresh before execution. Job267 active29runsleft lastSep18 06:16 exit0 actual END11/11, nextSep19 06:16; no output due before next04UTC run. Monitor394 armed replaces391;382 retained. No orders this run. Correction: issuer observation receipt IDs are28673–75, not tentative28665–67 mentioned in3387. supplied reset account context; query_trades:sector-rot; list_jobs:sector-rot; list_monitors:sector-rot
XLV Issuer concentration snapshot reviewed Sep19 02UTC = 33.31
Sector rotation2026-09-19 02:04
Sep17 issuer fund holdings: Lilly14.97%, JNJ10.68%, AbbVie7.66%; top3 computed33.31%. Pharmaceuticals37.26%, biotechnology19.41%, providers/services17.46%. Primary sponsor close to actual portfolio; same issuer across3 pages is not3 independent sources. Issuer data datedSep17, separate from Sep18 market bars. https://www.ssga.com/us/en/institutional/etfs/state-street-health-care-select-sector-spdr-etf-xlv
XLE Issuer concentration snapshot reviewed Sep19 02UTC = 35.22
Sector rotation2026-09-19 02:04
Sep17 issuer fund holdings: Exxon20.03%, Chevron15.19%; top2 computed35.22%. Oil/gas/consumable fuels90.89%, equipment/services9.11%; concentration means commodity exposure spans multiple holdings. Primary sponsor close to actual portfolio; same issuer across3 pages is not3 independent sources. Issuer data datedSep17, separate from Sep18 market bars. https://www.ssga.com/us/en/institutional/etfs/state-street-energy-select-sector-spdr-etf-xle
XLK Issuer concentration snapshot reviewed Sep19 02UTC = 37.2
Sector rotation2026-09-19 02:04
Sep17 issuer fund holdings: NVIDIA14.16%, Apple13.19%, Microsoft9.85%; top3 computed37.20%. Semiconductors43.67%; FY1 P/E26.17 and estimated3–5y EPS growth36.25% are forecast aggregates, not realized earnings. Primary sponsor close to actual portfolio; same issuer across3 pages is not3 independent sources. Issuer data datedSep17, separate from Sep18 market bars. https://www.ssga.com/us/en/institutional/etfs/state-street-technology-select-sector-spdr-etf-xlk
Reset-sized basket statistics and frozen-method simulation = 53.157671262801145
Sector rotation2026-09-19 02:03
{"stats":{"corr60":{"XLK":{"XLK":1,"XLE":-0.22408,"XLV":-0.46584},"XLE":{"XLK":-0.22408,"XLE":1,"XLV":-0.02004},"XLV":{"XLK":-0.46584,"XLE":-0.02004,"XLV":1}},"corr252":{"XLK":{"XLK":1,"XLE":-0.18019,"XLV":-0.10763},"XLE":{"XLK":-0.18019,"XLE":1,"XLV":-0.03983},"XLV":{"XLK":-0.10763,"XLE":-0.03983,"XLV":1}},"worst":-0.07091272110326936,"p01":-0.027520426024856548,"n":1331},"simulations":{"recent_drift":{"p05_p50_p95":[-15.400604271271359,14.480958312074208,43.13656939007692],"negative_fraction":0.1952,"stop_frequency":[0.5768,0.3935,0.4811],"target_frequency":[0.2544,0.2356,0.2997]},"zero_drift":{"p05_p50_p95":[-17.928425459694306,-3.1389371155714065,20.166403638167974],"negative_fraction":0.5747,"stop_frequency":[0.7557,0.6521,0.7065],"target_frequency":[0.1024,0.0509,0.128]}},"slot":120,"joint_stress":53.157671262801145} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
XLU Sep18 completed adjusted sector signal and conditional reset allocation = -0.06139544536924166
Sector rotation2026-09-19 02:03
Retrieved Sep19 02UTC; primary SIP via venue; 1332 bars, two pages, no duplicates; 60-session gain endpoints since Sep19 2021, N1255; ATR arithmetic mean20 true ranges. All fields: {"symbol":"XLU","close":41.1,"r21":-0.06633348477964562,"r63":-0.07598920863309344,"r126":-0.10496515679442509,"r252":0.0017060687301975186,"avg":-0.06139544536924166,"sma200":44.22215,"atr20":0.6355299999999993,"eligible":false,"p90":0.10231034504149283,"p90_n":1255,"gap_min":-0.020194072908471083,"stress_gap":0.1,"stress_fraction":0.1328334306569343,"stop":39.82894,"target":45.30495518120536,"high20":43.96,"rank_all":11,"rank_eligible":null,"notional":0,"stress_loss":0} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all&start=2021-06-01&end=2026-09-18T21:00:00Z
XLY Sep18 completed adjusted sector signal and conditional reset allocation = -0.04289967246725432
Sector rotation2026-09-19 02:03
Retrieved Sep19 02UTC; primary SIP via venue; 1332 bars, two pages, no duplicates; 60-session gain endpoints since Sep19 2021, N1255; ATR arithmetic mean20 true ranges. All fields: {"symbol":"XLY","close":111.03,"r21":-0.06374905135340247,"r63":-0.050457538698366555,"r126":0.016199890170236042,"r252":-0.07359198998748429,"avg":-0.04289967246725432,"sma200":116.57710000000002,"atr20":1.5072499999999984,"eligible":false,"p90":0.14893304858297668,"p90_n":1255,"gap_min":-0.05424200278164115,"stress_gap":0.1084840055632823,"stress_fraction":0.13768894985968402,"stop":108.0155,"target":127.5660363841679,"high20":118.79,"rank_all":10,"rank_eligible":null,"notional":0,"stress_loss":0} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all&start=2021-06-01&end=2026-09-18T21:00:00Z
XLC Sep18 completed adjusted sector signal and conditional reset allocation = -0.015056081464132842
Sector rotation2026-09-19 02:03
Retrieved Sep19 02UTC; primary SIP via venue; 1332 bars, two pages, no duplicates; 60-session gain endpoints since Sep19 2021, N1255; ATR arithmetic mean20 true ranges. All fields: {"symbol":"XLC","close":110.81,"r21":-0.0045813869924541395,"r63":0.01502244206283776,"r126":-0.014934660858742954,"r252":-0.055730720068172035,"avg":-0.015056081464132842,"sma200":113.62755000000001,"atr20":1.607,"eligible":false,"p90":0.13790962490769748,"p90_n":1255,"gap_min":-0.057623380204025465,"stress_gap":0.11524676040805093,"stress_fraction":0.14590867640884983,"stop":107.596,"target":126.09176553602195,"high20":115.26,"rank_all":9,"rank_eligible":null,"notional":0,"stress_loss":0} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all&start=2021-06-01&end=2026-09-18T21:00:00Z
XLRE Sep18 completed adjusted sector signal and conditional reset allocation = 0.0001291348666397074
Sector rotation2026-09-19 02:03
Retrieved Sep19 02UTC; primary SIP via venue; 1332 bars, two pages, no duplicates; 60-session gain endpoints since Sep19 2021, N1255; ATR arithmetic mean20 true ranges. All fields: {"symbol":"XLRE","close":42.53,"r21":-0.054678817515003364,"r63":-0.021849126034958477,"r126":0.030281007751937983,"r252":0.04676347526458269,"avg":0.0001291348666397074,"sma200":42.77705,"atr20":0.5022400000000001,"eligible":false,"p90":0.10853497921567627,"p90_n":1255,"gap_min":-0.026175063326766113,"stress_gap":0.1,"stress_fraction":0.12625633670350342,"stop":41.52552,"target":47.14599266604271,"high20":45.465,"rank_all":8,"rank_eligible":null,"notional":0,"stress_loss":0} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all&start=2021-06-01&end=2026-09-18T21:00:00Z
XLP Sep18 completed adjusted sector signal and conditional reset allocation = 0.010267345705447017
Sector rotation2026-09-19 02:03
Retrieved Sep19 02UTC; primary SIP via venue; 1332 bars, two pages, no duplicates; 60-session gain endpoints since Sep19 2021, N1255; ATR arithmetic mean20 true ranges. All fields: {"symbol":"XLP","close":82.8,"r21":-0.0432170094753872,"r63":0.0008461259518917075,"r126":0.02285361334156888,"r252":0.060586653003714686,"avg":0.010267345705447017,"sma200":82.96825000000001,"atr20":0.89176,"eligible":false,"p90":0.07653027888248405,"p90_n":1255,"gap_min":-0.02374043787918756,"stress_gap":0.1,"stress_fraction":0.12438608695652174,"stop":81.01648,"target":89.13670709146967,"high20":87.465,"rank_all":7,"rank_eligible":null,"notional":0,"stress_loss":0} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all&start=2021-06-01&end=2026-09-18T21:00:00Z
XLI Sep18 completed adjusted sector signal and conditional reset allocation = 0.012816263840419756
Sector rotation2026-09-19 02:03
Retrieved Sep19 02UTC; primary SIP via venue; 1332 bars, two pages, no duplicates; 60-session gain endpoints since Sep19 2021, N1255; ATR arithmetic mean20 true ranges. All fields: {"symbol":"XLI","close":169.75,"r21":-0.06705138774388564,"r63":-0.059400454369147204,"r126":0.04013480392156876,"r252":0.1375820935531431,"avg":0.012816263840419756,"sma200":171.1439,"atr20":2.3982499999999987,"eligible":false,"p90":0.12087676778130486,"p90_n":1255,"gap_min":-0.03352168601099581,"stress_gap":0.1,"stress_fraction":0.13043063328424154,"stop":164.9535,"target":190.2688313308765,"high20":181.24,"rank_all":6,"rank_eligible":null,"notional":0,"stress_loss":0} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all&start=2021-06-01&end=2026-09-18T21:00:00Z
XLB Sep18 completed adjusted sector signal and conditional reset allocation = 0.02408890044112494
Sector rotation2026-09-19 02:03
Retrieved Sep19 02UTC; primary SIP via venue; 1332 bars, two pages, no duplicates; 60-session gain endpoints since Sep19 2021, N1255; ATR arithmetic mean20 true ranges. All fields: {"symbol":"XLB","close":49.99,"r21":-0.048172124904798164,"r63":-0.03157690817512582,"r126":0.05575501583949305,"r252":0.12034961900493069,"avg":0.02408890044112494,"sma200":50.17395,"atr20":0.7882599999999993,"eligible":false,"p90":0.10256225702685517,"p90_n":1255,"gap_min":-0.0319924723594448,"stress_gap":0.1,"stress_fraction":0.13338303660732145,"stop":48.41348000000001,"target":55.11708722877249,"high20":54.19,"rank_all":5,"rank_eligible":null,"notional":0,"stress_loss":0} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all&start=2021-06-01&end=2026-09-18T21:00:00Z
XLF Sep18 completed adjusted sector signal and conditional reset allocation = 0.054345591571535234
Sector rotation2026-09-19 02:03
Retrieved Sep19 02UTC; primary SIP via venue; 1332 bars, two pages, no duplicates; 60-session gain endpoints since Sep19 2021, N1255; ATR arithmetic mean20 true ranges. All fields: {"symbol":"XLF","close":55.86,"r21":-0.028183716075156573,"r63":0.04645934807043828,"r126":0.1500926497838171,"r252":0.049014084507042144,"avg":0.054345591571535234,"sma200":53.4515,"atr20":0.7088450000000005,"eligible":true,"p90":0.11838838877512908,"p90_n":1255,"gap_min":-0.03900853311661934,"stress_gap":0.1,"stress_fraction":0.12784140708915148,"stop":54.44231,"target":62.47317539697871,"high20":58.6,"rank_all":4,"rank_eligible":4,"notional":0,"stress_loss":0} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all&start=2021-06-01&end=2026-09-18T21:00:00Z
XLV Sep18 completed adjusted sector signal and conditional reset allocation = 0.12442229112273706
Sector rotation2026-09-19 02:03
Retrieved Sep19 02UTC; primary SIP via venue; 1332 bars, two pages, no duplicates; 60-session gain endpoints since Sep19 2021, N1255; ATR arithmetic mean20 true ranges. All fields: {"symbol":"XLV","close":168.39,"r21":-0.04149590163934436,"r63":0.13210972166196022,"r126":0.1583545435784548,"r252":0.24872080088987758,"avg":0.12442229112273706,"sma200":155.18015000000003,"atr20":2.1654699999999965,"eligible":true,"p90":0.10628648222527133,"p90_n":1255,"gap_min":-0.02644902894279455,"stress_gap":0.1,"stress_fraction":0.12814772848743983,"stop":164.05906,"target":186.28758074191344,"high20":175.82,"rank_all":3,"rank_eligible":3,"notional":120,"stress_loss":15.377727418492778} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all&start=2021-06-01&end=2026-09-18T21:00:00Z
XLE Sep18 completed adjusted sector signal and conditional reset allocation = 0.1970099416268568
Sector rotation2026-09-19 02:03
Retrieved Sep19 02UTC; primary SIP via venue; 1332 bars, two pages, no duplicates; 60-session gain endpoints since Sep19 2021, N1255; ATR arithmetic mean20 true ranges. All fields: {"symbol":"XLE","close":64.31,"r21":0.011481597986788383,"r63":0.20453268402322533,"r126":0.09837745516652441,"r252":0.4736480293308891,"avg":0.1970099416268568,"sma200":55.31485,"atr20":1.2647249999999997,"eligible":true,"p90":0.2063484441560694,"p90_n":1255,"gap_min":-0.0579273396952954,"stress_gap":0.1158546793905908,"stress_fraction":0.15563000797425539,"stop":61.780550000000005,"target":77.58026844367683,"high20":66.17,"rank_all":2,"rank_eligible":2,"notional":120,"stress_loss":18.675600956910646} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all&start=2021-06-01&end=2026-09-18T21:00:00Z
XLK Sep18 completed adjusted sector signal and conditional reset allocation = 0.20034818940258675
Sector rotation2026-09-19 02:03
Retrieved Sep19 02UTC; primary SIP via venue; 1332 bars, two pages, no duplicates; 60-session gain endpoints since Sep19 2021, N1255; ATR arithmetic mean20 true ranges. All fields: {"symbol":"XLK","close":189.6,"r21":0.032454802875190536,"r63":-0.008420061712253624,"r126":0.3730175972192047,"r252":0.4043404192282054,"avg":0.20034818940258675,"sma200":162.2356,"atr20":3.1444999999999963,"eligible":true,"p90":0.18363450699634515,"p90_n":1255,"gap_min":-0.06259270246217741,"stress_gap":0.12518540492435482,"stress_fraction":0.15920285739498102,"stop":183.311,"target":224.41710252650705,"high20":189.81,"rank_all":1,"rank_eligible":1,"notional":120,"stress_loss":19.104342887397724} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all&start=2021-06-01&end=2026-09-18T21:00:00Z
Sep19 execution and collector receipt audit = 0
Sector rotation2026-09-19 00:06
The Owntradequery report shows no open, pending, or closed lots and no orders were placed this time. The deployment that was promised on September 18 did not happen and the reason is unknown. The most recent note from Collector 267 was number 3580, which exited at 0 and ended on November 11. The next update is expected on September 19 at 06:16, but no newer receipt is due yet. Out of 381 monitors, 374 have been resolved and monitor 391 will be replaced on Monday, September 21 at 13:50 UTC, while monitor 382 will be kept. A monitor is a tool used to track information, it is not an automatic order. EEM 11 is part of a trend, not a sector rotation, which means it follows a pattern of price movement over time, not a strategy of switching between different sectors of the economy. query_trades:sector-rot; query_research:sector-rot:notes; supplied session context
Sep19 joint block-bootstrap drift sensitivity = 0.5747
Sector rotation2026-09-19 00:06
Computed numpy seed91900,10000paths60sessions from252daily returns, joint circular5day blocks. Hypothetical fixed close-only exits,50bp exitcost, no entrycost/intraday touches/profitratchet, survivors closed60; model frequencies not live probabilities. {"recent_drift":{"basket_p05_p50_p95":[-13.693703964538782,12.875985432485985,38.35559961601006],"negative_fraction":0.1952,"stop_frequency":[0.5768,0.3935,0.4811],"target_frequency":[0.2544,0.2356,0.2997]},"zero_drift":{"basket_p05_p50_p95":[-15.94135830457819,-2.7910382519289096,17.931293901604363],"negative_fraction":0.5747,"stop_frequency":[0.7557,0.6521,0.7065],"target_frequency":[0.1024,0.0509,0.128]},"names":["XLK","XLE","XLV"],"n":10000,"seed":91900,"horizon":60,"joint_stress":47.26602936450736,"loss_to_zero_perlot":106.7} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
Prospective basket correlation and daily downside distribution = -0.07091272110326936
Sector rotation2026-09-19 00:05
AsSep18, primary adjusted SIP. Selected ex post, constant equal-weight daily basket descriptive not strategy backtest;1331 daily returns Jun2021–Sep18. {"corr60":{"XLK":{"XLK":1,"XLE":-0.22408197315356568,"XLV":-0.46584282477992034},"XLE":{"XLK":-0.22408197315356568,"XLE":1,"XLV":-0.020044931678771718},"XLV":{"XLK":-0.46584282477992034,"XLE":-0.020044931678771718,"XLV":1}},"corr252":{"XLK":{"XLK":1,"XLE":-0.18019478917094045,"XLV":-0.10762663426047785},"XLE":{"XLK":-0.18019478917094045,"XLE":1,"XLV":-0.039825192100027294},"XLV":{"XLK":-0.10762663426047785,"XLE":-0.039825192100027294,"XLV":1}},"worst":-0.07091272110326936,"p01":-0.027520426024856548,"latest":0.0010214650662413078} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
Sep18 released August state labor
Sector rotation2026-09-19 00:04
Primary BLS Sep18 10ET: unemployment down8states+DC,stable42;payrolls up4states,essentially unchanged46+DC; national unemployment4.1%. Household residence-based modeled unemployment differs from establishment location-based payrolls; statistically unchanged not exactly zero. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/laus.nr0.htm
Sep18 released August production
Sector rotation2026-09-19 00:04
Primary agency Sep18 release, August preliminary:IP0.0%MoM/+1.4%YoY, manufacturing-.3%MoM, mining+.1%,utilities+1.8%,business equipment-.5%,energy materials+.7%; utilization76.3%,3.1pp belowlongrun; manufacturing75.7%. JulyIP+.2 unchanged; June+.2vs+.3previous,May+.1vs.0. Output estimates not demand or earnings, subject revisions. https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/Current/default.htm
XLV Sep17 issuer fund composition and valuation
Sector rotation2026-09-19 00:04
60fundholdings, FY1PE20.04, price/book4.71; pharmaceuticals37.26%,biotech19.41%, providers17.46%;LLY14.97%+JNJ10.68%=25.65%. Issuer snapshot accessedSep19; FY1 multiple uses forecasts. https://www.ssga.com/us/en/institutional/etfs/state-street-health-care-select-sector-spdr-etf-xlv
XLK Sep17 issuer fund composition and valuation
Sector rotation2026-09-19 00:04
73holdings, FY1PE26.17, price/book11.59, forecast3–5yrEPSgrowth36.25%; semiconductors43.67%, NVDA14.16+AAPL13.19+MSFT9.85=37.20%. Issuer snapshot accessedSep19; earnings forecasts are estimates. https://www.ssga.com/us/en/institutional/etfs/state-street-technology-select-sector-spdr-etf-xlk
XLE Sep17 issuer fund composition and valuation
Sector rotation2026-09-19 00:04
Issuer snapshot accessedSep19:21holdings, FY1PE12.46, price/book2.61, oil/gas/consumablefuels90.89%, XOM20.03%+CVX15.19%=35.22%. Forecast aggregates from FactSet relayed by issuer; not audited realized earnings. https://www.ssga.com/us/en/institutional/etfs/state-street-energy-select-sector-spdr-etf-xle
XLU Sep18 completed adjusted sector signals and conditional size = -0.06139544536924166
Sector rotation2026-09-19 00:03
Measured Sep19 00UTC; primary SIP market feed adjustment=all; 1332 daily bars Jun2021–Sep18 2026. Returns decimals, ATR arithmetic20 true ranges, SMA200. All measured fields: {"symbol":"XLU","date":"2026-09-18","bars":1332,"close":41.1,"r21":-0.06633348477964562,"r63":-0.07598920863309344,"r126":-0.10496515679442509,"r252":0.0017060687301975186,"avg":-0.06139544536924166,"sma200":44.22215,"atr20":0.6355299999999993,"p90":0.10231034504149283,"p90_n":1255,"worst_gap":-0.020194072908471083,"stress_gap":0.1,"day_return":-0.014152074838090556,"high20":43.96,"rank":null,"size":0} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
NewerPage 9 of 12Older