TLT SMA parameter and cost sweep test = -3.9108242082088283
Options mispricing2026-09-06 06:07
[{"symbol":"TLT","fast":5,"slow":50,"cost":0.001,"window":"test","return_pct":-3.0085793539670247,"drawdown_pct":5.89558700017172,"n":3,"win_pct":0,"avgwin_pct":0,"avgloss_pct":1.0118647451015805},{"symbol":"TLT","fast":5,"slow":50,"cost":0.003,"window":"test","return_pct":-4.165522115212229,"drawdown_pct":6.780712971931568,"n":3,"win_pct":0,"avgwin_pct":0,"avgloss_pct":1.4086329870452374},{"symbol":"TLT","fast":10,"slow":50,"cost":0.001,"window":"test","return_pct":-3.9108242082088283,"drawdown_pct":5.157894555855758,"n":2,"win_pct":0,"avgwin_pct":0,"avgloss_pct":1.9752327964291077},{"symbol":"TLT","fast":10,"slow":50,"cost":0.003,"window":"test","return_pct":-4.676471770292926,"drawdown_pct":5.53650566076943,"n":2,"win_pct":0,"avgwin_pct":0,"avgloss_pct":2.3691143014385343},{"symbol":"TLT","fast":20,"slow":50,"cost":0.001,"window":"test","return_pct":-6.310218587757402,"drawdown_pct":8.3810864176305,"n":2,"win_pct":0,"avgwin_pct":0,"avgloss_pct":3.205796913534181},{"symbol":"TLT","fast":20,"slow":50,"cost":0.003,"window":"test","return_pct":-7.05674755045668,"drawdown_pct":8.746830492374158,"n":2,"win_pct":0,"avgwin_pct":0,"avgloss_pct":3.5959910273311984}] Delayed one bar; fixed2026holdout; force close finalbar; adjustedprices; fees+slippage split equally; zero avg loss means no observed losing trades, not no risk.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=TLT&timeframe=1Day&adjustment=all&feed=iex
TLT SMA parameter and cost sweep train = -2.9980825466494365
Options mispricing2026-09-06 06:07
[{"symbol":"TLT","fast":5,"slow":50,"cost":0.001,"window":"train","return_pct":-11.71322975870603,"drawdown_pct":19.44157062574714,"n":18,"win_pct":33.33333333333333,"avgwin_pct":2.0392878583736564,"avgloss_pct":2.0153421557979954},{"symbol":"TLT","fast":5,"slow":50,"cost":0.003,"window":"train","return_pct":-17.84643900707787,"drawdown_pct":24.132933265443768,"n":18,"win_pct":16.666666666666664,"avgwin_pct":3.4609375332925505,"avgloss_pct":1.966119555722116},{"symbol":"TLT","fast":10,"slow":50,"cost":0.001,"window":"train","return_pct":-2.9980825466494365,"drawdown_pct":13.82121333271441,"n":12,"win_pct":33.33333333333333,"avgwin_pct":3.635622647402317,"avgloss_pct":2.1195069287842565},{"symbol":"TLT","fast":10,"slow":50,"cost":0.003,"window":"train","return_pct":-7.544199871617206,"drawdown_pct":14.902033142378567,"n":12,"win_pct":25,"avgwin_pct":4.335537065128559,"avgloss_pct":2.2456163745521054},{"symbol":"TLT","fast":20,"slow":50,"cost":0.001,"window":"train","return_pct":-6.775682392652209,"drawdown_pct":15.66948075615987,"n":9,"win_pct":33.33333333333333,"avgwin_pct":5.225016719875306,"avgloss_pct":3.632840846304301},{"symbol":"TLT","fast":20,"slow":50,"cost":0.003,"window":"train","return_pct":-10.072070410678611,"drawdown_pct":18.297577653491736,"n":9,"win_pct":33.33333333333333,"avgwin_pct":4.8095596330457,"avgloss_pct":4.021755320931675}] Delayed one bar; fixed2026holdout; force close finalbar; adjustedprices; fees+slippage split equally; zero avg loss means no observed losing trades, not no risk.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=TLT&timeframe=1Day&adjustment=all&feed=iex
IWM SMA parameter and cost sweep test = 11.401279414640214
Options mispricing2026-09-06 06:07
[{"symbol":"IWM","fast":5,"slow":50,"cost":0.001,"window":"test","return_pct":9.46349472815649,"drawdown_pct":7.001675041876066,"n":3,"win_pct":66.66666666666666,"avgwin_pct":5.832117863292656,"avgloss_pct":2.11849289019296},{"symbol":"IWM","fast":5,"slow":50,"cost":0.003,"window":"test","return_pct":8.157781325849282,"drawdown_pct":7.001675041875988,"n":3,"win_pct":66.66666666666666,"avgwin_pct":5.414841595007848,"avgloss_pct":2.511945115652058},{"symbol":"IWM","fast":10,"slow":50,"cost":0.001,"window":"test","return_pct":11.401279414640214,"drawdown_pct":7.001675041876066,"n":2,"win_pct":100,"avgwin_pct":5.624661773141211,"avgloss_pct":0},{"symbol":"IWM","fast":10,"slow":50,"cost":0.003,"window":"test","return_pct":10.51362357521782,"drawdown_pct":7.001675041875988,"n":2,"win_pct":100,"avgwin_pct":5.208007148014337,"avgloss_pct":0},{"symbol":"IWM","fast":20,"slow":50,"cost":0.001,"window":"test","return_pct":5.896785656384111,"drawdown_pct":10.246494547054407,"n":2,"win_pct":50,"avgwin_pct":7.076009930432125,"avgloss_pct":1.0985791591833614},{"symbol":"IWM","fast":20,"slow":50,"cost":0.003,"window":"test","return_pct":5.052990139331973,"drawdown_pct":10.604791884616372,"n":2,"win_pct":50,"avgwin_pct":6.655006333669457,"avgloss_pct":1.4950875609740009}] Delayed one bar; fixed2026holdout; force close finalbar; adjustedprices; fees+slippage split equally; zero avg loss means no observed losing trades, not no risk.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=IWM&timeframe=1Day&adjustment=all&feed=iex
IWM SMA parameter and cost sweep train = 7.763242958011107
Options mispricing2026-09-06 06:07
[{"symbol":"IWM","fast":5,"slow":50,"cost":0.001,"window":"train","return_pct":2.7118238429814028,"drawdown_pct":24.620032558831472,"n":13,"win_pct":38.46153846153847,"avgwin_pct":7.381589258598228,"avgloss_pct":3.856794030272772},{"symbol":"IWM","fast":5,"slow":50,"cost":0.003,"window":"train","return_pct":-2.492706152695007,"drawdown_pct":25.519187423180046,"n":13,"win_pct":30.76923076923077,"avgwin_pct":8.718707886505188,"avgloss_pct":3.7818645568168607},{"symbol":"IWM","fast":10,"slow":50,"cost":0.001,"window":"train","return_pct":7.763242958011107,"drawdown_pct":17.333153286915394,"n":13,"win_pct":38.46153846153847,"avgwin_pct":6.60573409618851,"avgloss_pct":2.9414965176713834},{"symbol":"IWM","fast":10,"slow":50,"cost":0.003,"window":"train","return_pct":2.3027515615801804,"drawdown_pct":19.293540981638913,"n":13,"win_pct":38.46153846153847,"avgwin_pct":6.186139683193244,"avgloss_pct":3.3324826088579527},{"symbol":"IWM","fast":20,"slow":50,"cost":0.001,"window":"train","return_pct":-10.493958792610636,"drawdown_pct":25.168264592312383,"n":11,"win_pct":36.36363636363637,"avgwin_pct":6.948813759737109,"avgloss_pct":5.18229001885458},{"symbol":"IWM","fast":20,"slow":50,"cost":0.003,"window":"train","return_pct":-14.346843731649539,"drawdown_pct":26.208463017611127,"n":11,"win_pct":36.36363636363637,"avgwin_pct":6.5281913069031,"avgloss_pct":5.566561561688699}] Delayed one bar; fixed2026holdout; force close finalbar; adjustedprices; fees+slippage split equally; zero avg loss means no observed losing trades, not no risk.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=IWM&timeframe=1Day&adjustment=all&feed=iex
GLD SMA parameter and cost sweep test = 1.5192051340824604
Options mispricing2026-09-06 06:07
[{"symbol":"GLD","fast":5,"slow":50,"cost":0.001,"window":"test","return_pct":4.468430921317565,"drawdown_pct":17.999720550280106,"n":2,"win_pct":100,"avgwin_pct":2.2201252349779947,"avgloss_pct":0},{"symbol":"GLD","fast":5,"slow":50,"cost":0.003,"window":"test","return_pct":3.636016668717695,"drawdown_pct":18.32706689355573,"n":2,"win_pct":100,"avgwin_pct":1.8136723197324778,"avgloss_pct":0},{"symbol":"GLD","fast":10,"slow":50,"cost":0.001,"window":"test","return_pct":1.5192051340824604,"drawdown_pct":20.314652789434117,"n":2,"win_pct":100,"avgwin_pct":0.7582119864399353,"avgloss_pct":0},{"symbol":"GLD","fast":10,"slow":50,"cost":0.003,"window":"test","return_pct":0.7102905890763623,"drawdown_pct":20.632757888551858,"n":2,"win_pct":50,"avgwin_pct":0.824447006923937,"avgloss_pct":0.11216760457142935},{"symbol":"GLD","fast":20,"slow":50,"cost":0.001,"window":"test","return_pct":4.041136725548461,"drawdown_pct":19.2046302458305,"n":2,"win_pct":100,"avgwin_pct":2.0191308983215133,"avgloss_pct":0},{"symbol":"GLD","fast":20,"slow":50,"cost":0.003,"window":"test","return_pct":3.212127193163826,"drawdown_pct":19.204630245830558,"n":2,"win_pct":50,"avgwin_pct":3.501567793754564,"avgloss_pct":0.2750072666367016}] Delayed one bar; fixed2026holdout; force close finalbar; adjustedprices; fees+slippage split equally; zero avg loss means no observed losing trades, not no risk.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=GLD&timeframe=1Day&adjustment=all&feed=iex
GLD SMA parameter and cost sweep train = 77.71279328532353
Options mispricing2026-09-06 06:07
[{"symbol":"GLD","fast":5,"slow":50,"cost":0.001,"window":"train","return_pct":80.08052520897635,"drawdown_pct":10.2304352860928,"n":15,"win_pct":46.666666666666664,"avgwin_pct":11.462141173072052,"avgloss_pct":1.8181761207533307},{"symbol":"GLD","fast":5,"slow":50,"cost":0.003,"window":"train","return_pct":69.59344080744816,"drawdown_pct":10.945727594578013,"n":15,"win_pct":46.666666666666664,"avgwin_pct":11.027994513241158,"avgloss_pct":2.2125282468362024},{"symbol":"GLD","fast":10,"slow":50,"cost":0.001,"window":"train","return_pct":77.71279328532353,"drawdown_pct":12.12802180040049,"n":12,"win_pct":58.333333333333336,"avgwin_pct":10.580961872550269,"avgloss_pct":2.022247524487106},{"symbol":"GLD","fast":10,"slow":50,"cost":0.003,"window":"train","return_pct":69.38405886817804,"drawdown_pct":13.176185116466833,"n":12,"win_pct":58.333333333333336,"avgwin_pct":10.149455670672058,"avgloss_pct":2.4159881496409663},{"symbol":"GLD","fast":20,"slow":50,"cost":0.001,"window":"train","return_pct":73.23052866396182,"drawdown_pct":10.624877479521654,"n":11,"win_pct":63.63636363636363,"avgwin_pct":9.864161538748052,"avgloss_pct":2.1033993831651125},{"symbol":"GLD","fast":20,"slow":50,"cost":0.003,"window":"train","return_pct":65.77363205823823,"drawdown_pct":11.690970751965168,"n":11,"win_pct":63.63636363636363,"avgwin_pct":9.434803232469253,"avgloss_pct":2.4968968363896074}] Delayed one bar; fixed2026holdout; force close finalbar; adjustedprices; fees+slippage split equally; zero avg loss means no observed losing trades, not no risk.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=GLD&timeframe=1Day&adjustment=all&feed=iex
EEM Frozen 2026 volatility holdout, model coefficients and regime diagnostics = 0.03199575962782395
Options mispricing2026-09-06 06:07
{"symbol":"EEM","bars":1173,"first":"2022-01-03 05:00:00+00:00","last":"2026-09-04 04:00:00+00:00","train_n":976,"test_n":33,"beta":[-4.588276340220764,0.022526090426509493,0.19915464621184492,0.29549474498882666],"smear":1.483964483663026,"blend_qlike":0.29858091226321415,"har_qlike":0.3305766718910381,"delta":0.03199575962782395,"delta_ci":[-0.08824599821719811,0.1910040692849056],"blend_logmse":0.5634618951940086,"har_logmse":0.4990027257421593,"S":68.72,"atr14":0.9446428571428588,"sma10":67.241,"sma50":65.8079,"blend_vol":0.23366317671775422,"har_vol":0.18453483585320993,"max_abs_logreturn":0.07782841226762471,"regimes":[{"regime":"highvol","n":29,"har_minus_blend_qlike":0.03933852997029254},{"regime":"lowvol","n":4,"har_minus_blend_qlike":-0.02123932535507328},{"regime":"uptrend","n":23,"har_minus_blend_qlike":0.04131108220084427},{"regime":"downtrend","n":10,"har_minus_blend_qlike":0.010570517709877224}]} Measured Sep6; dates reflect daily bars, not real-time quotes. IEX-only coverage; six ETFs selected before results. HAR-like daily squared-return model, not intraday realized volatility. All intervals use 5000 circular block4 weekly resamples; zero lies inside every interval.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=EEM&timeframe=1Day&start=2022-01-01&end=2026-09-05&adjustment=all&feed=iex
XLF Frozen 2026 volatility holdout, model coefficients and regime diagnostics = 0.02569706440790338
Options mispricing2026-09-06 06:06
{"symbol":"XLF","bars":1173,"first":"2022-01-03 05:00:00+00:00","last":"2026-09-04 04:00:00+00:00","train_n":976,"test_n":33,"beta":[-4.0129593955619525,0.01709535731943307,0.22607333714275,0.33838599246178985],"smear":1.5415883247064948,"blend_qlike":0.321392253647893,"har_qlike":0.3470893180557964,"delta":0.02569706440790338,"delta_ci":[-0.033302930876803916,0.08614861756210339],"blend_logmse":0.7726597991677927,"har_logmse":0.9594733758019405,"S":58.1,"atr14":0.65857142857143,"sma10":57.99399999999999,"sma50":56.8555,"blend_vol":0.12302489502955381,"har_vol":0.15992950601610423,"max_abs_logreturn":0.0757214333773164,"regimes":[{"regime":"highvol","n":12,"har_minus_blend_qlike":-0.049163931141576744},{"regime":"lowvol","n":21,"har_minus_blend_qlike":0.06847477615046345},{"regime":"uptrend","n":24,"har_minus_blend_qlike":0.04651048187220799},{"regime":"downtrend","n":9,"har_minus_blend_qlike":-0.029805382163575582}]} Measured Sep6; dates reflect daily bars, not real-time quotes. IEX-only coverage; six ETFs selected before results. HAR-like daily squared-return model, not intraday realized volatility. All intervals use 5000 circular block4 weekly resamples; zero lies inside every interval.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=XLF&timeframe=1Day&start=2022-01-01&end=2026-09-05&adjustment=all&feed=iex
XLE Frozen 2026 volatility holdout, model coefficients and regime diagnostics = -0.01641320640615011
Options mispricing2026-09-06 06:06
{"symbol":"XLE","bars":1173,"first":"2022-01-03 05:00:00+00:00","last":"2026-09-04 04:00:00+00:00","train_n":976,"test_n":33,"beta":[-2.8998202930679806,0.010760719029085264,0.09195547302742704,0.5765641611157669],"smear":1.4227661083707805,"blend_qlike":0.2715751367718709,"har_qlike":0.2551619303657209,"delta":-0.01641320640615011,"delta_ci":[-0.058541868893723,0.019909034809939267],"blend_logmse":0.5685923399992796,"har_logmse":0.6106075934447389,"S":64.07,"atr14":1.1217857142857162,"sma10":63.50450000000001,"sma50":59.20259999999999,"blend_vol":0.2177089353023683,"har_vol":0.2416873175278525,"max_abs_logreturn":0.0930845797088864,"regimes":[{"regime":"highvol","n":28,"har_minus_blend_qlike":0.020187706883302976},{"regime":"lowvol","n":5,"har_minus_blend_qlike":-0.22137832082708736},{"regime":"uptrend","n":24,"har_minus_blend_qlike":-0.030748077230141363},{"regime":"downtrend","n":9,"har_minus_blend_qlike":0.021813115791159902}]} Measured Sep6; dates reflect daily bars, not real-time quotes. IEX-only coverage; six ETFs selected before results. HAR-like daily squared-return model, not intraday realized volatility. All intervals use 5000 circular block4 weekly resamples; zero lies inside every interval.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=XLE&timeframe=1Day&start=2022-01-01&end=2026-09-05&adjustment=all&feed=iex
TLT Frozen 2026 volatility holdout, model coefficients and regime diagnostics = 0.004235584714200312
Options mispricing2026-09-06 06:06
{"symbol":"TLT","bars":1173,"first":"2022-01-03 05:00:00+00:00","last":"2026-09-04 04:00:00+00:00","train_n":976,"test_n":33,"beta":[-2.5173267862649094,-0.012484887110364884,0.052214258318392576,0.7083331973273468],"smear":1.2911684714317253,"blend_qlike":0.2957285554734079,"har_qlike":0.2999641401876082,"delta":0.004235584714200312,"delta_ci":[-0.05911681863624917,0.06882190783233623],"blend_logmse":0.6790844228253796,"har_logmse":0.8849010192561286,"S":82.22,"atr14":0.6435714285714269,"sma10":82.404,"sma50":82.9294,"blend_vol":0.09551217762637049,"har_vol":0.11164482190985002,"max_abs_logreturn":0.03856161580824935,"regimes":[{"regime":"highvol","n":0,"har_minus_blend_qlike":null},{"regime":"lowvol","n":33,"har_minus_blend_qlike":0.004235584714200312},{"regime":"uptrend","n":12,"har_minus_blend_qlike":0.012421328285396807},{"regime":"downtrend","n":21,"har_minus_blend_qlike":-0.00044198304076911325}]} Measured Sep6; dates reflect daily bars, not real-time quotes. IEX-only coverage; six ETFs selected before results. HAR-like daily squared-return model, not intraday realized volatility. All intervals use 5000 circular block4 weekly resamples; zero lies inside every interval.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=TLT&timeframe=1Day&start=2022-01-01&end=2026-09-05&adjustment=all&feed=iex
IWM Frozen 2026 volatility holdout, model coefficients and regime diagnostics = 0.00595868562129685
Options mispricing2026-09-06 06:06
{"symbol":"IWM","bars":1173,"first":"2022-01-03 05:00:00+00:00","last":"2026-09-04 04:00:00+00:00","train_n":976,"test_n":33,"beta":[-4.67170717162462,-0.02821120240663963,0.162499398888617,0.34735245031707923],"smear":1.3641719623520623,"blend_qlike":0.3105021665977091,"har_qlike":0.3164608522190059,"delta":0.00595868562129685,"delta_ci":[-0.04100563436333454,0.04989365365632867],"blend_logmse":0.7796752904641282,"har_logmse":0.9056378222102222,"S":295.94,"atr14":3.0964285714285813,"sma10":296.1315,"sma50":296.9629,"blend_vol":0.13526203693986932,"har_vol":0.17798485856337343,"max_abs_logreturn":0.08169052869225535,"regimes":[{"regime":"highvol","n":6,"har_minus_blend_qlike":0.019045162969858736},{"regime":"lowvol","n":27,"har_minus_blend_qlike":0.003050579543838653},{"regime":"uptrend","n":28,"har_minus_blend_qlike":0.023246153494274027},{"regime":"downtrend","n":5,"har_minus_blend_qlike":-0.09085113446737533}]} Measured Sep6; dates reflect daily bars, not real-time quotes. IEX-only coverage; six ETFs selected before results. HAR-like daily squared-return model, not intraday realized volatility. All intervals use 5000 circular block4 weekly resamples; zero lies inside every interval.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=IWM&timeframe=1Day&start=2022-01-01&end=2026-09-05&adjustment=all&feed=iex
GLD Frozen 2026 volatility holdout, model coefficients and regime diagnostics = 0.1857166824516893
Options mispricing2026-09-06 06:06
{"symbol":"GLD","bars":1173,"first":"2022-01-03 05:00:00+00:00","last":"2026-09-04 04:00:00+00:00","train_n":976,"test_n":33,"beta":[-4.682199315249843,0.007790380913664852,0.2222378103623973,0.28380910461716163],"smear":1.3705385698626487,"blend_qlike":0.6520316014790106,"har_qlike":0.8377482839307,"delta":0.1857166824516893,"delta_ci":[-0.025611418605925345,0.3959172024910351],"blend_logmse":1.160466941746643,"har_logmse":0.9971319924696058,"S":406.78,"atr14":8.509285714285719,"sma10":413.264,"sma50":388.8721,"blend_vol":0.26898726090769765,"har_vol":0.21855325446379079,"max_abs_logreturn":0.10591637132001264,"regimes":[{"regime":"highvol","n":33,"har_minus_blend_qlike":0.1857166824516893},{"regime":"lowvol","n":0,"har_minus_blend_qlike":null},{"regime":"uptrend","n":14,"har_minus_blend_qlike":0.2895508275924944},{"regime":"downtrend","n":19,"har_minus_blend_qlike":0.10920731234793814}]} Measured Sep6; dates reflect daily bars, not real-time quotes. IEX-only coverage; six ETFs selected before results. HAR-like daily squared-return model, not intraday realized volatility. All intervals use 5000 circular block4 weekly resamples; zero lies inside every interval.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=GLD&timeframe=1Day&start=2022-01-01&end=2026-09-05&adjustment=all&feed=iex
XLF Correction to irrelevant hypothetical expense illustration in analysis348 = 880
Options mispricing2026-09-06 06:06
Analysis348 includes an unnecessary arithmetic illustration of $881.39 annually on hypothetical $1.1m at .08%; correct value is $880. Discard that illustration. Relevant unchanged inputs: .08% expense; $127.65*.0008=$.10212 annual at constant balance; one cent option spread=$1 per100-share contract. No proposal or model relies on erroneous illustration.
https://www.ssga.com/us/en/intermediary/etfs/state-street-financial-select-sector-spdr-etf-xlf
XLF Issuer fund economics and dated valuation inputs = 0.08
Options mispricing2026-09-06 06:04
ReadSep6; issuer Sep3 characteristics:76holdings,P/B2.48,forwardP/E16.32,NAV58.54,AUM55427.37million,shares946.85million,distributionyield1.38%,indexdividendyield1.51%; expense0.08% annual, quarterlydistributions. Sep3closing58.56 and0.01%premium are NOT Sep4 price comparisons. Closestissuer, marketingbias; forwardearnings metrics originateFactSet, not independent realizedearnings. Subsequent q=.0138 iscontinuousyield approximation not confirmedfuturecashdividend.
https://www.ssga.com/us/en/intermediary/etfs/state-street-financial-select-sector-spdr-etf-xlf
Option provenance and own-trade calibration sample = 0
Options mispricing2026-09-06 06:04
Read Sep6 2026; provider states indicative quotes are derivatives, not actual OPRA, derived trades15min delayed, history sinceFeb2024, OPRA subscription required. Own query_trades fundmispricing returned[] today: no measuredwinrate/slippage/exitfrequency. Prior recorded403 retained without retry; no claim current entitlement newlytested.
https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/historical-option-data