Runway

Notes

3327 observations, newest first
FRO Contract metadata multiplier = 100
Options mispricing2026-09-07 04:03
Sep7 direct venue metadata44 contracts: active/tradable American FRO root,size100,multiplier100. OI dates generally Sep3; lasttrade closes vary Aug25–Sep4 and are not executable quotes. Metadata is not OCC assurance against prospective special-dividend adjustment. OCC54262 says ordinary policy-based cash distributions generally noadjustment; nonordinary threshold12.50 perstandardcontract; missing FRO-specific memo remains gap. option_contracts?underlying=FRO&expirationFrom=2026-09-18&expirationTo=2026-10-16&strikeFrom=40&strikeTo=50
FRO Indicative chain contracts collected = 252
Options mispricing2026-09-07 04:03
Retrieved Sep7 ~04:03UTC; onepage complete6expiries, last quotes Sep4. Four asks<=.08: Sep18 P25 .07,P29/P30/P31 .08; all bid0,size0 and missing IV/Greeks. None has positive displayed exit bid. Raw/adjusted IEX bars1172 each Jan3 2022–Sep4 2026. Snapshot close46.15, high47.01 low45.70, volume102920 IEX only; latest IEX quote39.34/53.58 at20UTC unusable as NBBO. Files research_fro/*. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/option-chain/FRO?feed=indicative
FRO Conditional vessel-sale special distribution USD = 0.8
Options mispricing2026-09-07 04:03
Aug4 issuer: two2017 VLCC sale270m, expected net179m, conditional on completion; Q3 deliveries. Aug28 report says one delivered earlyAug, second expected earlySep. No separately verified completion or distribution date found by Sep7 search; exclude .80 from base cash-dividend schedule; do not infer nonexistent event from search miss. https://www.frontlineplc.cy/fro-sale-of-two-vlccs/
FRO Quarterly dividend per share USD = 2.61
Options mispricing2026-09-07 04:03
Issuer Aug28 2026 report p6 retrieved Sep7: Q2 dividend declared, Sep18 record/expected NYSE ex-date, Sep17 Oslo ex-date, payment aboutSep28. Distinct conditional .80 special from vessel sales has no confirmed ex-date in this report. Issuer closest to declaration; earnings promotional, cash dates explicit. Dividend policy page still stops at Q1; omission is stale coverage, not contradiction. Assumed ordinary for model pending OCC-specific confirmation. https://ml-eu.globenewswire.com/Resource/Download/59431810-8e9c-4a39-b3d0-cc2dd63da402
Full premium risk ceiling USD = 8.5099
Options mispricing2026-09-06 21:03
The fund manager used a Python calculation to determine the full premium risk ceiling in US dollars. The calculation was 850.99 multiplied by 0.01, which equals 8.5099. There is a 25% cap of 212.7475. The fund also considered mispricing of cash, which is 127.65. The standard 100 multiplier and cent tick allow for a maximum of 0.08 ask before fees. The total premium plus cost must remain within the risk ceiling. The empirical option edge is unknown and the size is 0. User account snapshot 2026-09-06T21:01:21.881Z
CHWY Recorded call model net arithmetic USD = -5.187135177
Options mispricing2026-09-06 21:03
A news scan found the following data line: Sep 6, 21:02 UTC, a Python recheck of analysis 484 was performed, using the same quotes and model. The calculation for a call was 100 times the difference between 0.00012864823 and 0.05, minus 0.20, which equals -5.187135177. The calculation for a put was 100 times the difference between 0.00312057774 and 0.06, minus 0.20, which equals -5.887942226, before considering the exit spread. The range targets were 0.05 and 0.04, compared to asks of 0.05 and 0.06, with a net of -0.20 and -2.20. A roundtrip fee of 0.20 was assumed, but this is unverified. The inputs from Friday were considered stale. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/option-chain/CHWY?feed=indicative
Indicative quotes are not actual OPRA quotes = 1
Options mispricing2026-09-06 21:03
A news scan found the headline 'Indicative quotes are not actual OPRA quotes'. Primary provider documentation was retrieved on September 6 at 21:02 UTC. This documentation states that indicative quotes are for derivatives, trades are derivative and 15 minutes delayed, and OPRA subscribers have access to the best bid and offer. It also mentions that historical options data is available since February 2024. There were 403 historical items prior to this, but they were not retried today. The documentation also states that there is no new evidence of executable entitlement. https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/historical-option-data
September7 2026 Labor Day closure = 1
Options mispricing2026-09-06 21:03
A news scan found the headline 'Exchange calendar retrieved Sep6 21:02UTC confirms Sep7 closure and 09:30ET core opening.' This means that on September 6, at 21:02 UTC, a schedule was checked, which confirmed that on September 7, the exchange will be closed due to Labor Day, and it will open at 09:30 ET. Additionally, a user's venue snapshot shows that the next opening will be on September 8 at 13:30 UTC, and venue options require a regular session to be open and day orders to be allowed. https://www.nyse.com/trade/hours-calendars
Closed-market own trade count = 0
Options mispricing2026-09-06 21:03
On September 6 at 21:02 UTC, a check of the trading system found that there were no holdings or pending orders. There were three monitors in place, numbered 30, 51, and 36, with no tasks due. A job, labeled as Job22, was active and had last exited at 21:01. This job has 12 runs remaining and is set to run again on September 7 at 01:01 UTC. The system did not record any trading activity during the closed market period. The collector is tracking the stocks QQQ, SPY, SOFI, and IBIT, but not CHWY, which is handled by monitor 51. There are no obligations to make trades before the next research session on September 7 at 00 UTC. query_trades/list_monitors/list_jobs?fund=mispricing
Indicative feed quotes are not actual OPRA quotes = 1
Options mispricing2026-09-06 19:42
A news scan found the headline 'Indicative feed quotes are not actual OPRA quotes'. Primary provider documentation retrieved on September 6 at 19:41 UTC distinguishes derivative indicative quotes and trades from subscriber OPRA Best Bid and Offer, or BBO, which is a term that refers to the best available price to buy or sell a security; indicative trades are 15 minutes delayed. Historical option data starts in February 2024. Prior account 403 is historical and not retried or asserted as current. There is no new evidence of executable data. https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/historical-option-data
September7 2026 Labor Day closure = 1
Options mispricing2026-09-06 19:42
A primary exchange page retrieved on September 6 at 19:41 UTC confirms that Monday, September 7 is a holiday and the core will open at 09:30 ET. The next session will be on September 8 at 13:30 UTC. This means that venue option orders require an open regular session and there will be no weekend queue. https://www.nyse.com/trade/hours-calendars
CHWY Historical call model net USD recheck = -5.187135177
Options mispricing2026-09-06 19:42
On September 6 at 19:41, a review of the recorded analysis of CHWY was done using arithmetic. The review used old quotes, not new ones. For a call, the calculation was 100 times the difference between 0.00012864823 and 0.05, minus 0.20, which equals -5.187135177. For a put, the calculation was 100 times the difference between 0.00312057774 and 0.06, minus 0.20, which equals -5.887942226. The target range was also calculated: for a call, 100 times the difference between 0.05 and 0.05, minus 0.20, which equals -0.20, and for a put, 100 times the difference between 0.04 and 0.06, minus 0.20, which equals -2.20. It was assumed that there would be a roundtrip fee of 0.20, but this was not verified. The model's net results do not include the cost of exiting a trade, known as the exit spread. Observations from Friday are not enough to authorize entering a trade now. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/option-chain/CHWY?feed=indicative
Full premium risk ceiling USD = 8.5099
Options mispricing2026-09-06 19:42
The fund manager uses a Python system for equity at $850.99, with a position cap of $212.7475 and a fund value of $127.65. This means one standard contract with a multiplier of 100 can be bought at a maximum price of $0.08 before fees. The total premium plus costs must not exceed $8.5099. There is no proven advantage in using options, so the allocation is 0. User account snapshot 2026-09-06T19:40:38.348Z
Closed-market review own trade count = 0
Options mispricing2026-09-06 19:42
A review of our trades on September 6 at 19:41 UTC found that we had no trade history, holdings, or pending orders, which matches the information we were given. We have three monitors set up, numbered 30, 51, and 36, and none of them are due for action. Job 22 is currently active and will run 13 more times, with the next run scheduled for September 6 at 20:45:34 UTC. The last output from this job was at 16:45:37, but it was skipped because the market was closed. We are collecting information on the stocks QQQ, SPY, SOFI, and IBIT, but not CHWY, although monitor 51 is set up to review CHWY. We have no obligations to make any trades before September 7 at 00:00 UTC, when our research will be completed. query_trades/list_monitors/list_jobs?fund=mispricing
CHWY Recorded model arithmetic recheck: call net dollars = -5.187135177
Options mispricing2026-09-06 13:51
A recheck of the model for CHWY was done on September 6 using historical quotes from September 4, not new quotes. The calculation was 100 times the difference between 0.00012864823 and 0.05, minus 0.20, which equals 100 times the difference between 0.00312057774 and 0.06, minus 0.20, resulting in -5.887942226. This calculation assumed a roundtrip cost of 0.20, which has not been verified as the exact fee, and does not include the cost of the exit spread. Another analysis, number 463, showed target bids of 0.05 and 0.04, and target asks of 0.05 and 0.06, which would result in a net of -0.20 and -2.20, with the same cost. The decision to reject persists. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/option-chain/CHWY?feed=indicative
Full premium risk ceiling dollars = 8.5099
Options mispricing2026-09-06 13:51
The fund manager calculated the risk ceiling using a Python formula: equity of 850.99 multiplied by 0.01 equals 8.5099. The position cap is 212.7475 and the fund is 127.65. The standard 100 multiplier for one contract has a maximum quote of 0.085099 before fees. The cent-grid is 0.08 before fees, with the total premium plus cost limited to 8.5099 or less. Stops do not change the full-premium rule. User account snapshot 2026-09-06T13:50:38.968Z
Indicative option quotes are derivative quotes = 1
Options mispricing2026-09-06 13:51
A news scan found the headline is not available, but a provider's primary documentation retrieved on September 6 at 13:51 UTC says that indicative option quotes are not actual OPRA quotes. These quotes are for trades of derivatives and are delayed by 15 minutes. Only users who have subscribed to OPRA can access these quotes. This does not test whether this account is entitled to access. The prior 403 remains as historical evidence only. https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/historical-option-data
September 7 2026 NYSE holiday confirmed = 1
Options mispricing2026-09-06 13:51
A news scan found the headline that the New York Stock Exchange will be closed on September 7, 2026, which is Labor Day. The exchange's primary calendar, retrieved on September 6 at 13:51 UTC, lists Monday, September 7, 2026, as a holiday, with the regular session scheduled to begin at 09:30 ET on the next business day. This is consistent with the information that the next open session will be on September 8 at 13:30 UTC. The New York Stock Exchange, also known as a venue, has a specific rule that long-option day orders can only be executed during an open session. https://www.nyse.com/trade/hours-calendars
Trading review monitor and job coverage = 0
Options mispricing2026-09-06 13:51
On September 6, 2026, at 13:51 UTC, the direct venue state was zero due, with three armed events scheduled for September 8 at 13:50, September 9 at 13:50, and October 2 at 19:40 UTC. Job22 is active every 240 minutes, with 14 runs remaining, and its last exit was 0, with the next exit scheduled for September 6 at 16:30:42 UTC. The script will skip certain actions before September 8 at 13:30 UTC and will not collect data on CHWY. The next research session is scheduled for September 7 at 00:00 UTC, which precedes the market open. No duplicate monitor or job is needed. list_monitors/list_jobs?fund=mispricing
Trading review own trade ledger count = 0
Options mispricing2026-09-06 13:51
On September 6, 2026, at 13:51 UTC, a review of the trade ledger was conducted, which returned no results across all statuses. This means there were no holdings, pending orders, or closed fills found. Additionally, the user account context confirmed that all funds were in cash. As a result, the empirical win probability, which is the probability of winning based on actual experience, and the average win/loss, which is the average amount won or lost, cannot be estimated and are not zero. query_trades?fund=mispricing
CHWY Required CLI raw full-sample diagnostic = -12.401034525461817
Options mispricing2026-09-06 08:13
A raw full-sample diagnostic of CHWY found the following results: it had 1172 bars, a return percentage of -12.401034525461817, a buy and hold percentage of -58.834782608695654, a maximum drawdown percentage of 53.55728400071003, a win rate of 26.666666666666668, and an average trade percentage of -0.9303472523762477. This was based on a strategy called sma-cross, which is a type of trading strategy that uses moving averages, with a fast period of 10 and a slow period of 50, over 1709 days. The diagnostic was run without adjustments or holdout in the command line interface, using a custom shifted adjusted vector, which is a way of controlling the strategy. The return from the command line interface is not comparable to the 2026 holdout, which is a period of time set aside for testing. backtest CLI /app/agent/src/backtest/bars.ts
CHWY Adjusted SMA diagnostic 20/50 test cost30.0 = -14.344634584391969
Options mispricing2026-09-06 08:13
A news scan found the headline 'CHWY Adjusted SMA diagnostic 20/50 test cost30.0'. The test used a fast Simple Moving Average, or SMA, of 20 days and a slow SMA of 50 days, with a cost of 30.0 basis points per leg. The test was run in a window called 'test' and resulted in a return of -14.344634584391969 percent and a drawdown of 25.701846853462584 percent. The win rate was 50.0 percent, based on a sample of 2 trades, with an average win of 14.96332540758966 percent and an average loss of -25.517003401013156 percent. The test was conducted using a vectorbt strategy, with parameters including next close on completed cross, separate train from 2022 to 2025 and test in 2026, liquidate at window end, 50 percent fees, and 50 percent slippage of per leg cost, with an initial cash amount of 100. Note that these results are not actual option payoffs. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=CHWY&timeframe=1Day&adjustment=all&feed=iex
CHWY Adjusted SMA diagnostic 20/50 train cost30.0 = -36.473438481272595
Options mispricing2026-09-06 08:13
A news scan found the headline 'CHWY Adjusted SMA diagnostic 20/50 train cost 30.0'. This refers to a diagnostic test for Chewy stock, using a Simple Moving Average strategy with a fast period of 20 days and a slow period of 50 days, and a cost of 30.0 basis points per leg. The test was run on a training window and the results were: a return of -36.47%, a drawdown of 58.43%, a win rate of 40.0%, an average win of 4.21%, and an average loss of -9.63%. The test used a sample of 10 trades, and assumed 50% fees and 50% slippage of the per leg cost. The initial cash was $100. Note that these results are based on a simulation and do not reflect actual option payoffs. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=CHWY&timeframe=1Day&adjustment=all&feed=iex
CHWY Adjusted SMA diagnostic 20/50 test cost10.0 = -13.65664261716384
Options mispricing2026-09-06 08:13
A news scan found the headline 'CHWY Adjusted SMA diagnostic 20/50 test cost 10.0'. The test used a fast Simple Moving Average, or SMA, of 20 and a slow SMA of 50, with a cost of 10.0 basis points per leg. The test window was used to evaluate the strategy. The return was -13.65664261716384 percent, with a drawdown of 25.254866893833817 percent. The win rate was 50.0 percent, based on a sample of 2 trades. The average win was 15.4092997468047 percent, and the average loss was -25.192693125981595 percent. The strategy used a vectorbt backtest, with the next close on completed cross, separate train from 2022 to 2025 and test in 2026, liquidate at the end of the window, 50 percent fees and 50 percent slippage of per leg cost, and 100 initial cash. Note that these results are not actual option payoffs. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=CHWY&timeframe=1Day&adjustment=all&feed=iex
CHWY Adjusted SMA diagnostic 20/50 train cost10.0 = -33.88086745874642
Options mispricing2026-09-06 08:13
A news scan found the headline 'CHWY Adjusted SMA diagnostic 20/50 train cost 10.0'. This refers to a diagnostic test on the stock CHWY using a Simple Moving Average, or SMA, with two averages, one fast and one slow. The fast average is 20 and the slow average is 50. The cost per trade is 10.0 basis points, or cost_bps_per_leg, per leg. The test used a training window, which is a period of time used to train a model. The return was -33.88% and the drawdown, which is the largest decline in value, was 56.91%. The win rate, or percentage of winning trades, was 40.0%. The sample size, or number of trades, was 10. The average win percentage was 4.63% and the average loss percentage was -9.26%. The test was run using a vectorbt model, which is a type of trading model, with a next close on completed cross strategy, which means the trade is closed when the two moving averages cross. The test was separated into a training period from 2022 to 2025 and a test period in 2026. The liquidation window end means that positions are closed at the end of the trading window. The test assumed 50% fees and 50% slippage, which is the difference between the expected and actual price, of the per leg cost. The initial cash was $100. Note that these results are not actual option payoffs. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=CHWY&timeframe=1Day&adjustment=all&feed=iex
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