Notes

A backtest of the ETH/USD trading strategy was measured on September 11 at 06:08 UTC. The test used a frozen specification from note 2231, which was based on a request from January 1, 2024, to September 11, 2026, at 06:00 UTC, with a backtest cutoff at 00:00 UTC. The test reused the 2026 holdout period, meaning it did not use new, independent data to validate the results. All costs and raw fills were reconciled to an accuracy of 1e-10. The test results for the daily ETH/USD strategy from January 1, 2026, to September 11, 2026, were as follows: the return was -18.45%, the maximum drawdown was 27.86%, there were 5 trades, and the mean return was -3.71%. For comparison, a buy-and-hold strategy would have resulted in a return of -16.77%. The reconcile value, which measures the accuracy of the test, was 5.551115123e-16. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars

A backtest of the ETH/USD trading strategy was measured on September 11 at 06:08 UTC. The test used a frozen specification from note 2231 and data from January 1, 2024, to September 11, 2026. The test reused the 2026 holdout period, which means it did not use new, independent data to validate the results. All costs and raw fills were reconciled to an accuracy of 1e-10. The test results showed a return of -17.6325%, a maximum drawdown of 27.3536%, and 20 winning trades out of 5 total trades, with a mean return of -3.5219%. For comparison, a buy-and-hold strategy would have returned -16.7706% over the same period. The test used a 10 basis point slip and a trailing stop, which is a stop-loss order that moves as the price of the asset moves, and the daily time frame, which means the strategy made decisions based on daily price data. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars

A backtest of the ETH/USD trading strategy was measured on September 11 at 06:08 UTC. The test used a frozen specification from note 2231 and data from January 1, 2024, to September 11, 2026. The test reused the 2026 holdout period, which means it did not use new, independent data to validate the results. All costs and raw trade fills were reconciled to an accuracy of 1e-10, which is a very small number. The test results showed a return of -17.6325%, a maximum drawdown of 27.3536%, and 20 winning trades out of 5 total trades, with a mean return of -3.5219%. For comparison, a buy-and-hold strategy would have had a return of -16.7706% over the same period. The test used a daily time frame, a 10 basis point slip, and did not use a trailing stop, which is a strategy that automatically adjusts the stop-loss level as the price moves. A basis point is a unit of measurement, equal to 0.01%, used to express the size of a trade or the change in a price. The test period was from January 1, 2026, to September 11, 2026. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars

A backtest was measured from September 11 to 06:08 UTC. The test used a frozen specification note 2231 and a source request from January 1, 2024, to September 11, 2026, at 06:00 UTC, with a backtest cutoff at 00:00 UTC. The 2026 holdout was reused, with no new independent validation. All costs and raw fills were reconciled to 1e-10. The test results for the symbol ETH, with a daily time frame, and a train period, from January 1, 2024, to January 1, 2026, showed a return of -0.9862710551, a drawdown of 35.2672389601, 40 wins, 15 trades, and a mean of 0.9267903619. The buy and hold return was 30.1642494797, and the reconcile value was 3.330669074e-16, with a slip of 20 basis points and trail set to true. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars

A backtest of the ETH/USD trading strategy was measured on September 11 at 06:08 UTC. The test used a frozen specification called note2231 and historical data from January 1, 2024, to September 11, 2026, at 06:00 UTC. The test did not include new independent validation, instead reusing the 2026 holdout data. All costs and raw fills were reconciled to an accuracy of 1e-10. The test results showed a return of -6.69%, a maximum drawdown of 43.66%, a win rate of 33.33%, and an average return of 0.63% per trade. The test included 15 trades, with a 20 basis point slip, and no trailing stop. The buy and hold strategy return was 30.16% for comparison. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars

A backtest of the ETH/USD trading strategy was measured on September 11 at 06:08 UTC. The test used a frozen specification from note 2231 and data from January 1, 2024, to September 11, 2026, at 06:00 UTC, with a backtest cutoff at 00:00 UTC. The 2026 holdout data was reused, with no new independent validation. All costs and raw fills were reconciled to an accuracy of 1e-10. The test results for the daily training period from January 1, 2024, to January 1, 2026, showed a return of 2.0291530569, a maximum drawdown of 34.9426662999, 40 winning trades, and a total of 15 trades, with a mean return of 1.1288464028. The buy and hold return was 30.1642494797, and the reconcile error was 8.881784197e-16. The test used a 10 basis point slip, which means a 0.1% cost for each trade, and a trailing stop, which is a stop-loss order that moves as the price moves, with the trail parameter set to true. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars

A backtest of the ETH/USD trading strategy was measured on September 11 at 06:08 UTC. The test used a frozen specification from note 2231 and data from January 1, 2024, to September 11, 2026, at 06:00 UTC. The backtest cutoff was at 00:00 UTC. The 2026 holdout data was reused, and no new independent validation was done. All costs and raw fills were reconciled to 1e-10 precision. The test results for the daily training period from January 1, 2024, to January 1, 2026, were: the symbol was ETH, the time frame was daily, the return was -3.8488%, the maximum drawdown was 43.1459%, the win rate was 33.3333%, the number of trades was 15, and the mean return was 0.8299%. The return of a buy and hold strategy was 30.1642%. The reconcile value was 4.4409e-16. The slip in basis points was 10 and the trail was set to false. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars

A backtest of the BTC/USD trading strategy was measured on September 11 at 06:08 UTC. The test used a frozen specification from note 2231 and data from January 1, 2024, to September 11, 2026, at 06:00 UTC, with a backtest cutoff at 00:00 UTC. The 2026 holdout period was reused, meaning no new independent validation was done. All costs and raw fills were reconciled to a precision of 1e-10. The test results for the hourly strategy on the reused holdout period from January 1, 2026, to September 11, 2026, were as follows: the symbol was BTC, the time frame was hourly, the period was the reused holdout, the start date was January 1, 2026, at 00:00:00 UTC, and the end date was September 11, 2026, at 00:00:00 UTC. The slip in basis points was 20, and the trail was true. The return was 6.3518399027, the drawdown was 13.3919712797, the win rate was 50, the number of trades was 6, the mean was 1.1993878608, and the buy and hold return was -12.2163852845. The reconcile value was 2.220446049e-16. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars

A backtest of the BTC/USD trading strategy was measured from September 11 at 06:08 UTC. The test used a frozen specification from note 2231, which was based on a request from January 1, 2024, to September 11, 2026, at 06:00 UTC. The test was accepted with a backtest cutoff at 00:00 UTC. The holdout period from 2026 was reused, meaning it did not have new independent validation. All costs and raw fills were reconciled to an accuracy of 1e-10. The test results for the hourly trading strategy on the BTC symbol showed a return of 6.3518%, a maximum drawdown of 13.3919%, and a win rate of 50% over 6 trades, with a mean return of 1.1994%. The return from a buy-and-hold strategy was -12.2164% for comparison. The reconcile value was 2.2204e-16, indicating a high degree of accuracy in the test results. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars

A backtest of the BTC/USD trading strategy was measured from September 11 at 06:08 UTC. The test used a frozen specification from note 2231 and data from January 1, 2024, to September 11, 2026, at 06:00 UTC. The backtest cutoff was 00:00 UTC. The test reused the 2026 holdout period, which means it did not use new, independent data to validate the results. All costs and raw fills were reconciled to an accuracy of 1e-10, which is a very small number. The test results showed a return of 7.6357530493%, a maximum drawdown of 12.8707598205%, and a win rate of 50%. The test had 6 trades, with a mean of 1.4019896435. For comparison, a buy-and-hold strategy would have had a return of -12.2163852845%. The test used a 10 basis point slip, which is a measure of the difference between the expected and actual price of a trade, and a trailing stop, which is a type of stop-loss order that moves with the price of the trade. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars

A backtest of the BTC/USD trading strategy was measured on September 11 at 06:08 UTC. The test used a frozen specification from note 2231 and data from January 1, 2024, to September 11, 2026, at 06:00 UTC, with a backtest cutoff at 00:00 UTC. The 2026 holdout period was reused, meaning no new independent validation was done. All costs and raw fills were reconciled to an accuracy of 1e-10. The test results for the hourly strategy in the reused holdout period from January 1, 2026, to September 11, 2026, were as follows: the symbol was BTC, the time frame was hourly, the slip was 10 basis points, and trailing was set to false. The return was 7.6357530493%, the maximum drawdown was 12.8707598205%, the win rate was 50%, the number of trades was 6, and the mean return was 1.4019896435%. For comparison, a buy-and-hold strategy would have resulted in a return of -12.2163852845%. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars

A backtest of the BTC/USD trading strategy was measured on September 11 at 06:08 UTC. The test used a frozen specification from note 2231 and data from January 1, 2024, to September 11, 2026, at 06:00 UTC. The backtest cutoff was at 00:00 UTC. The 2026 holdout data was reused, with no new independent validation. All costs and raw fills were reconciled to an accuracy of 1e-10. The test results for the hourly training period from January 1, 2024, to January 1, 2026, showed a return of 16.0629041747 percent, a maximum drawdown of 29.3346711114 percent, a win rate of 36.8421052632 percent, with 19 trades, and a mean of 1.2758262384. The buy and hold return was 107.1683349267 percent. The test used a 20 basis point slip and a trailing stop, with all costs and fills reconciled to an accuracy of 1e-10. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars

A backtest of the BTC/USD trading strategy was measured on September 11 at 06:08 UTC. The test used a frozen specification from note 2231 and data from January 1, 2024, to September 11, 2026, at 06:00 UTC. The backtest cutoff was 00:00 UTC. The 2026 holdout data was reused, and no new independent validation was done. All costs and raw fills were reconciled to 1e-10 precision. The test results for the hourly training period from January 1, 2024, to January 1, 2026, were as follows: the symbol was BTC, the time frame was hourly, the return was 16.0629041747 percent, the maximum drawdown was 29.3346711114 percent, the win rate was 36.8421052632 percent, the number of trades was 19, and the mean return was 1.2758262384. The return from a buy-and-hold strategy was 107.1683349267 percent. The slip, which is the difference between expected and actual trade prices, was 20 basis points, and the trail, which is a type of stop-loss order, was set to false. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars

A backtest of the BTC/USD trading strategy was measured on September 11 at 06:08 UTC. The test used a frozen specification from note 2231, based on a source request from January 1, 2024, to September 11, 2026, at 06:00 UTC, with a backtest cutoff at 00:00 UTC. The 2026 holdout data was reused, with no new independent validation. All costs and raw fills were reconciled to an accuracy of 1e-10. The test results for the hourly training period from January 1, 2024, to January 1, 2026, showed a return of 20.5581742344 percent, a maximum drawdown of 28.4815768457 percent, a win rate of 36.8421052632 percent, with 19 trades, and a mean trade return of 1.4785810512. The buy and hold return was 107.1683349267 percent, with a reconcile value of 1.110223025e-16. The test used a 10 basis point slip and a trailing stop, with the symbol being Bitcoin, represented as BTC, and the time frame being hourly. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars

A test of the BTC/USD trading strategy was measured on September 11 at 06:08 UTC. The test used a frozen specification from note 2231, based on a request for data from January 1, 2024, to September 11, 2026, at 06:00 UTC, with a backtest cutoff at 00:00 UTC. The 2026 holdout data was reused, without new independent validation. All costs and raw fills were reconciled to an accuracy of 1e-10. The test results for the hourly training period from January 1, 2024, to January 1, 2026, were as follows: the symbol was BTC, the time frame was hourly, the return was 20.5581742344 percent, the maximum drawdown was 28.4815768457 percent, the win rate was 36.8421052632 percent, the number of trades was 19, the mean return was 1.4785810512, and the buy and hold return was 107.1683349267 percent. The slip cost was 10 basis points, and the trail feature was set to false. The reconcile value was 1.110223025e-16. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars

A news scan found the headline 'BTC/USD C91106 costed backtest daily reused_holdout 20bp trail=true'. This is a report about a test of a trading strategy for Bitcoin priced in US dollars. The test was measured on September 11 and the specifications for the test were finalized. The test used data from January 1, 2024, to September 11, 2026. The test reused a previous holdout period, which means it did not use new, independent data to validate the results. The term 'holdout period' refers to a set of data used to test a strategy. All costs and trades were accounted for with a high degree of accuracy, specifically to 1e-10, which is a very small number. The test results are as follows: the symbol tested was Bitcoin, the time frame was daily, and the test period was from January 1, 2026, to September 11, 2026. The test included a 20 basis point slip, which is a measure of the difference between expected and actual trade prices, and a trailing feature, which means the strategy adjusted to market changes. The return on investment was -4.5080757787 percent, the maximum drawdown, or largest loss, was 21.6585257275 percent, and the winning percentage was 33.3333333333 percent. There were 6 trades, with a mean return of -0.4522998748 percent. For comparison, a buy-and-hold strategy would have resulted in a return of -10.5525155247 percent. The reconcile value, which measures the accuracy of the test, was 1.110223025e-16, indicating a high degree of accuracy. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars

A news scan found the headline 'BTC/USD C91106 costed backtest daily reused_holdout 20bp trail=false'. This is a report about a test of a trading strategy for Bitcoin priced in US dollars. The test was measured from September 11 at 06:08 UTC. The test used a set of rules, called a specification, that was frozen and given a note number, 2231. The test used data from January 1, 2024, to September 11, 2026, but only considered trades up to 00:00 UTC. The test reused a set of data from 2026, called the holdout period, without checking it against new, independent data. The test accounted for all costs and matched the original trades, with a very small difference of 1e-10. The results of the test were: the symbol was Bitcoin, the time period was daily, the test period was the reused holdout period, the start date was January 1, 2026, and the end date was September 11, 2026. The test also used a 20 basis point slip, which is a measure of the difference between the expected and actual price of a trade, and did not use a trailing stop, which is a way to automatically sell a trade when it loses value. The return on investment was -4.5080757787 percent, the maximum drawdown, which is the largest loss from the highest value, was 21.6585257275 percent, the win rate, which is the percentage of successful trades, was 33.3333333333 percent, there were 6 trades, the average return was -0.4522998748 percent, and the return from simply buying and holding Bitcoin was -10.5525155247 percent. The test also reported a reconcile value of 1.110223025e-16, which is a measure of the accuracy of the test. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars

A backtest of the BTC/USD trading strategy was measured on September 11 at 06:08 UTC. The test used a frozen specification from note 2231, which was based on a request from January 1, 2024, to September 11, 2026, at 06:00 UTC, with a backtest cutoff at 00:00 UTC. The test reused the 2026 holdout period, which means it did not use new, independent data to validate the results. The test accounted for all costs and raw fills to a precision of 1e-10, which is a very small number. The test results showed a return of -3.3553%, a maximum drawdown of 21.0293%, a win rate of 33.3333%, and a mean return of -0.2530%. The test also showed that buying and holding the asset would have resulted in a return of -10.5525%. The reconcile value, which measures the accuracy of the test, was 8.881784197e-16, which is very close to zero. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars

A backtest of the BTC/USD trading strategy was measured from September 11 at 06:08 UTC. The test used a frozen specification from note 2231, based on a request from January 1, 2024, to September 11, 2026, at 06:00 UTC, with a backtest cutoff at 00:00 UTC. The 2026 holdout period was reused, meaning no new independent validation was done. All costs and raw fills were reconciled to an accuracy of 1e-10. The test results for the daily period from January 1, 2026, to September 11, 2026, were as follows: the symbol was BTC, the time frame was daily, the period was reused holdout, the start date was January 1, 2026, at 00:00:00 UTC, and the end date was September 11, 2026, at 00:00:00 UTC. The slip in basis points was 10, and the trail was set to false. The return was -3.3553%, the drawdown was 21.0293%, the win rate was 33.3333%, and the number of trades was 6. The mean return was -0.253%, and the buy and hold return was -10.5525%. The reconcile value was 8.881784197e-16. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars

A backtest was measured on September 11 at 06:08 UTC. The test used a frozen specification from note 2231, based on a source request from January 1, 2024, to September 11, 2026, at 06:00 UTC, with a backtest cutoff at 00:00 UTC. The 2026 holdout data was reused, with no new independent validation. All costs and raw fills were reconciled to 1e-10 precision. The test results for the BTC symbol, using daily data, in the training period from January 1, 2024, to January 1, 2026, showed a return of -2.1625%, a maximum drawdown of 33.18%, a win rate of 44.44%, and 18 trades, with a mean of 0.3843%. The buy and hold return was 109.11%. The reconcile value was 3.3307e-16. The test used a 20 basis point slip and trailing was set to true. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars

A backtest was measured on September 11 at 06:08 UTC. The test used a frozen specification called note2231, based on a request for data from January 1, 2024, to September 11, 2026, at 06 UTC, with a backtest cutoff at 00 UTC. The 2026 holdout data was reused, without new independent validation. All costs and raw fills were reconciled to a precision of 1e-10. The test results for the BTC symbol, using daily data, in the train period, from January 1, 2024, to January 1, 2026, with a 20 basis point slip, and no trailing, showed a return of 5.8585, a maximum drawdown of 28.7457, a win rate of 44.4444, 18 trades, a mean of 0.8887, and a buy and hold return of 109.1139. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars

A backtest was measured on September 11 at 06:08 UTC. The test used a frozen specification from note 2231, based on a source request from January 1, 2024, to September 11, 2026, at 06:00 UTC, with a backtest cutoff at 00:00 UTC. The 2026 holdout was reused, with no new independent validation. All costs and raw fills were reconciled to 1e-10. The test results for the symbol BTC, with a daily time frame, during the training period, from January 1, 2024, to January 1, 2026, showed a return of 1.4238283647, a drawdown of 32.3728386495, a win rate of 44.4444444444, with 18 trades, and a mean of 0.5852259829. The buy and hold return was 109.1138921162, and the reconcile value was 4.440892099e-16, with a slip of 10 basis points and a trail of true. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars

A backtest of the BTC/USD trading strategy was measured on September 11 at 06:08 UTC. The test used a frozen specification from note 2231, based on a request for data from January 1, 2024, to September 11, 2026, at 06:00 UTC, with a backtest cutoff at 00:00 UTC. The 2026 holdout data was reused, without new independent validation. All costs and raw fills were reconciled to an accuracy of 1e-10. The test results for the daily training period from January 1, 2024, to January 1, 2026, showed a return of 9.7389%, a maximum drawdown of 28.03%, a win rate of 44.44%, and an average trade return of 1.0907%. The buy and hold return was 109.11%. The test used a 10 basis point slip, which means a 0.1% cost per trade, and did not use a trailing stop, a strategy that involves moving the stop loss as the price moves in a favorable direction. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars

A news scan found the statement from the operator of the BTC/USD C91106 fund. The statement was found on September 11 at 06:05 UTC. The operator said it will not pay a ransom and is working to recover stolen user funds in a legal way. This means the operator is trying to get back the money that was taken, using the law to help. The statement was already available at 05:45 UTC, so it is not a new update. The operator is talking to the people involved in the negotiations, but there is no independent confirmation that the assets will be returned. The operator's full statement can be read in the operator.json file. The balances on the blockchain, which is a public record of all transactions, are 598.50048115 and 3601.47203772 BTC, and these have not changed. The most recent 58 transactions are shown on the transaction page, but this is not the full history. The tip, which is the most recent transaction, is number 4052295 on two explorers, but this does not confirm that the recovery has been successful. The operator has not placed any orders to buy or sell BTC at the current price. https://x.com/Blockstream

A news scan found the following data: Retrieved on September 11 at 06:03 UTC, the data includes direct observations from venues, exchanges, issuers, and chains. The collector values, source dates, and limits are as follows: the fund is for crypto research only, eligible for 0 observations, and was observed on 2026-09-11T06:03:02.784669+00:00. The sources are https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-snapshots and https://blockstream.info/liquid/api/blocks. The data includes the following quotes: BTC bid/ask = 77209.7/77229.9, age = 27, ok = 1, depth in USD = 77.8/61.6, hurdle percentage = 0.528. ETH bid/ask = 2466.8/2467.49, age = 283, ok = 1, depth in USD = 82.7/82.7, hurdle percentage = 0.530. SOL bid/ask = 99.77/99.856, age = 147, ok = 1, depth in USD = 95.0/95.2, hurdle percentage = 0.589. USDC bid/ask = 0.9995/1, age = 4994, ok = 0, depth in USD = 9995000.0/45999.0, hurdle percentage = 0.552. USDG bid/ask = 0.99999/1.00001, age = 94261, ok = 0, depth in USD = 9999900.0/10000100.0, hurdle percentage = 0.504. XRP bid/ask = 1.34703/1.352, age = 33, ok = 1, depth in USD = 5590.2/5603.1, hurdle percentage = 0.873. UNI bid/ask = 6.15544/6.1666, age = 44, ok = 1, depth in USD = 4374.7/4331.8, hurdle percentage = 0.684. LTC bid/ask = 52.923/53.2494, age = 85, ok = 1, depth in USD = 3619.7/3606.3, hurdle percentage = 1.122. HYPE bid/ask = 79.6192/79.9859, age = 332, ok = 0, depth in USD = 61945.5/61980.4, hurdle percentage = 0.965. LINK bid/ask = 11.5578/11.5786, age = 149, ok = 1, depth in USD = 13458.4/13404.2, hurdle percentage = 0.683. There were 7 fresh quotes out of 10. The recipient BTC is 598.50048115, mempool net is 0.00015361, and transaction number is 296. The reserve BTC is 3601.47203772, mempool net is 3.384e-05, and transaction number is 590. The recent page is 58, controlled is 0, and not full history is 1. The tip is 4052295, age in seconds is 53, and time is 1789106530. The operator notes are 3, and the operator hash is 1e913157cc811e629b1b86d4db894412f924f07ea0928c7aa1a3e183681de0ca. The claim is to those responsible for the theft of bitcoin from the Liquid Network, stating that Blockstream will not pay a ransom. The fund has 7 out of 7 panels attempted, 0 eligible, and the balances are not sales or recovery. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-snapshots ; https://blockstream.info/liquid/api/blocks