Notes

A news scan found the following data about SOL/USD: it has two modes, empirical drift and zero drift. The empirical drift mode has the following characteristics: symbol is SOL, it uses 10000 paths, it runs for 48 hours, it has a block time of 4 hours, it samples every 878 hours, it stops when it loses 5.871372778798519 percent, it targets a gain of 8.807059168197778 percent, it stops first when it loses 3.4799999999999995 percent, it targets a first gain of 9.049999999999999 percent, it times out when it loses 87.47 percent, its net mean percent change is 1.3458147103839104, its net win percent is 61.870000000000005, its net 5 percent change is -5.215867744064287, its loss at 95 percent capacity is 11.09662822880317, and its equity risk percent over 1 percent is 8.55. The zero drift mode has the following characteristics: symbol is SOL, it uses 10000 paths, it runs for 48 hours, it has a block time of 4 hours, it samples every 878 hours, it stops when it loses 5.871372778798519 percent, it targets a gain of 8.807059168197778 percent, it stops first when it loses 9.15 percent, it targets a first gain of 4.42 percent, it times out when it loses 86.42999999999999 percent, its net mean percent change is -0.6992059933641397, its net win percent is 40, its net 5 percent change is -6.818978738947068, its loss at 95 percent capacity is 14.507206792641414, and its equity risk percent over 1 percent is 20.810000000000002. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars

A news scan found the following data about ETH/USD: it has two modes, empirical drift and zero drift. For empirical drift, the symbol is ETH, with 10,000 paths, 48 hours, 4 block hours, 878 sample hours, stop percentage of 3.8646679211068973, target percentage of 5.7970018816603455, stop first percentage of 9.33, target first percentage of 16.99, timeout percentage of 73.68, net mean percentage of 0.738619536206594, net win percentage of 55.800000000000004, net 5 percentage of -4.774097121943861, loss 95 at cap of 10.156772274507516, and over 1 percent equity risk percentage of 10.39. For zero drift, the symbol is ETH, with 10,000 paths, 48 hours, 4 block hours, 878 sample hours, stop percentage of 3.8646679211068973, target percentage of 5.7970018816603455, stop first percentage of 19.38, target first percentage of 12.379999999999999, timeout percentage of 68.24, net mean percentage of -0.6627487663609523, net win percentage of 36.17, net 5 percentage of -5.0464197787286365, loss 95 at cap of 10.736131918750706, and over 1 percent equity risk percentage of 21.490000000000002. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars

A news scan found the following data about the BTC/USD market: it includes two scenarios. The first scenario uses empirical drift with the following settings: the symbol is BTC, there are 10000 paths, the time frame is 48 hours, the block hours are 4, the sample hours are 878, the stop percentage is 3.149245494209274, the target percentage is 4.723868241313911, the stop first percentage is 7.049999999999999, the target first percentage is 16.72, the timeout percentage is 76.23, the net mean percentage is 0.546933521007008, the net win percentage is 55.05, the net 5 percentage is -3.9373732278666163, the loss 95 at cap is 8.37666310795553, and the over 1 percentage equity risk percentage is 4.04. The second scenario uses zero drift with the same settings as the first scenario, except the stop first percentage is 16.509999999999998, the target first percentage is 10.68, the timeout percentage is 72.81, the net mean percentage is -0.6384129254626031, the net win percentage is 35.79, the net 5 percentage is -4.137108067069427, the loss 95 at cap is 8.801593984988529, and the over 1 percentage equity risk percentage is 8.3. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars

[{"symbol":"SOL","timeframe":"1Hour","period":"holdout","stress":false,"bars":5952,"missing_full_window":7,"return_pct":-75.16904780878922,"drawdown_pct":75.2696720718988,"n":157,"win_rate_pct":19.745222929936308,"avg_win_pct":0.5263499615261654,"avg_loss_pct":1.2174108175041898,"quarter_kelly":-0.41469622311183996,"mean_trade_pct":-0.8731013643198524,"sweep_positive":0,"sweep_total":9,"sweep_min":-91.94073014297992,"sweep_max":-43.18578225153263},{"symbol":"SOL","timeframe":"1Hour","period":"holdout","stress":true,"bars":5952,"missing_full_window":7,"return_pct":-91.72632517514907,"drawdown_pct":91.72825547050975,"n":157,"win_rate_pct":4.45859872611465,"avg_win_pct":0.7992541349807688,"avg_loss_pct":1.6807999380525116,"quarter_kelly":-0.4911530044142584,"mean_trade_pct":-1.5702242787452954,"sweep_positive":0,"sweep_total":9,"sweep_min":-99.29475078026677,"sweep_max":-69.95249748088624}] https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars

[{"symbol":"SOL","timeframe":"1Hour","period":"train","stress":false,"bars":8760,"missing_full_window":7,"return_pct":-87.31324061149955,"drawdown_pct":87.33913566565585,"n":274,"win_rate_pct":20.802919708029197,"avg_win_pct":0.7338694075625474,"avg_loss_pct":1.127891535354548,"quarter_kelly":-0.25228974447369135,"mean_trade_pct":-0.7405909012440574,"sweep_positive":0,"sweep_total":9,"sweep_min":-97.42445194548996,"sweep_max":-55.037270719353515},{"symbol":"SOL","timeframe":"1Hour","period":"train","stress":true,"bars":8760,"missing_full_window":7,"return_pct":-98.13634870808548,"drawdown_pct":98.13634870808548,"n":274,"win_rate_pct":6.569343065693431,"avg_win_pct":1.0525363937984313,"avg_loss_pct":1.6134476533772173,"quarter_kelly":-0.3416295207738531,"mean_trade_pct":-1.4383100152415909,"sweep_positive":0,"sweep_total":9,"sweep_min":-99.92057770934117,"sweep_max":-79.21255069003197}] https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars

[{"symbol":"SOL","timeframe":"1Day","period":"holdout","stress":false,"bars":248,"missing_full_window":0,"return_pct":-12.348497965603947,"drawdown_pct":22.744026945895847,"n":5,"win_rate_pct":40,"avg_win_pct":3.022188583348597,"avg_loss_pct":6.111340985608383,"quarter_kelly":-0.20332360888794995,"mean_trade_pct":-2.4579291580255913,"sweep_positive":0,"sweep_total":9,"sweep_min":-37.241630415847936,"sweep_max":-2.4201923353073833},{"symbol":"SOL","timeframe":"1Day","period":"holdout","stress":true,"bars":248,"missing_full_window":0,"return_pct":-15.363267724999242,"drawdown_pct":24.349503667086736,"n":5,"win_rate_pct":40,"avg_win_pct":2.307539730623163,"avg_loss_pct":6.784895676451854,"quarter_kelly":-0.34104737957986697,"mean_trade_pct":-3.1479215136218475,"sweep_positive":0,"sweep_total":9,"sweep_min":-41.0734796056959,"sweep_max":-4.937578494562659}] https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars

[{"symbol":"SOL","timeframe":"1Day","period":"train","stress":false,"bars":365,"missing_full_window":0,"return_pct":17.571968984476914,"drawdown_pct":7.626980646160986,"n":12,"win_rate_pct":58.333333333333336,"avg_win_pct":3.8319039980214598,"avg_loss_pct":1.9224119798615302,"quarter_kelly":0.09357439156296563,"mean_trade_pct":1.4342723405702145,"sweep_positive":9,"sweep_total":9,"sweep_min":5.568425623393068,"sweep_max":65.51557226330455},{"symbol":"SOL","timeframe":"1Day","period":"train","stress":true,"bars":365,"missing_full_window":0,"return_pct":8.099242482946028,"drawdown_pct":12.044201846093994,"n":12,"win_rate_pct":41.66666666666667,"avg_win_pct":4.445247930182987,"avg_loss_pct":1.929289191692878,"quarter_kelly":0.04087330750931528,"mean_trade_pct":0.7267679424220658,"sweep_positive":6,"sweep_total":9,"sweep_min":-4.4647754875236565,"sweep_max":42.88836389879887}] https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars

[{"symbol":"ETH","timeframe":"1Hour","period":"holdout","stress":false,"bars":5952,"missing_full_window":2,"return_pct":-72.85743644706523,"drawdown_pct":72.9433742193563,"n":167,"win_rate_pct":14.37125748502994,"avg_win_pct":0.4742138919525664,"avg_loss_pct":0.9828316953822707,"quarter_kelly":-0.40774634372661833,"mean_trade_pct":-0.7734359223521142,"sweep_positive":0,"sweep_total":9,"sweep_min":-89.08550112287521,"sweep_max":-48.18903063053485},{"symbol":"ETH","timeframe":"1Hour","period":"holdout","stress":true,"bars":5952,"missing_full_window":2,"return_pct":-91.56752646113335,"drawdown_pct":91.56752646113333,"n":167,"win_rate_pct":3.592814371257485,"avg_win_pct":0.5619536425736281,"avg_loss_pct":1.5467697759556371,"quarter_kelly":-0.6544166397728758,"mean_trade_pct":-1.4710072579246456,"sweep_positive":0,"sweep_total":9,"sweep_min":-98.72739210059405,"sweep_max":-70.197396318534}] https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars

[{"symbol":"ETH","timeframe":"1Hour","period":"train","stress":false,"bars":8760,"missing_full_window":2,"return_pct":-88.1564324640635,"drawdown_pct":88.15643246406346,"n":264,"win_rate_pct":22.348484848484848,"avg_win_pct":0.542248903198408,"avg_loss_pct":1.178088703447851,"quarter_kelly":-0.36589254003218374,"mean_trade_pct":-0.7936193140837251,"sweep_positive":0,"sweep_total":9,"sweep_min":-97.30111549692685,"sweep_max":-64.47015045243468},{"symbol":"ETH","timeframe":"1Hour","period":"train","stress":true,"bars":8760,"missing_full_window":2,"return_pct":-98.13406099578303,"drawdown_pct":98.134060995783,"n":264,"win_rate_pct":5.681818181818182,"avg_win_pct":0.6221387171663456,"avg_loss_pct":1.6184033667407312,"quarter_kelly":-0.5991830270737375,"mean_trade_pct":-1.4910998392460109,"sweep_positive":0,"sweep_total":9,"sweep_min":-99.90154918118466,"sweep_max":-84.44528169572446}] https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars

[{"symbol":"ETH","timeframe":"1Day","period":"holdout","stress":false,"bars":248,"missing_full_window":0,"return_pct":-7.596211350552203,"drawdown_pct":20.282125701364517,"n":5,"win_rate_pct":40,"avg_win_pct":6.570102380040203,"avg_loss_pct":6.532743392897217,"quarter_kelly":-0.049147068379258085,"mean_trade_pct":-1.2916050837222492,"sweep_positive":1,"sweep_total":9,"sweep_min":-38.161654875249795,"sweep_max":9.678311202708901},{"symbol":"ETH","timeframe":"1Day","period":"holdout","stress":true,"bars":248,"missing_full_window":0,"return_pct":-10.774435810009727,"drawdown_pct":21.390412118041112,"n":5,"win_rate_pct":40,"avg_win_pct":5.839490526067154,"avg_loss_pct":7.204402083009345,"quarter_kelly":-0.08506071850401939,"mean_trade_pct":-1.9868450393787456,"sweep_positive":1,"sweep_total":9,"sweep_min":-41.118726658380474,"sweep_max":6.649880806381006}] https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars

[{"symbol":"ETH","timeframe":"1Day","period":"train","stress":false,"bars":365,"missing_full_window":0,"return_pct":3.204893420125645,"drawdown_pct":17.62454713927497,"n":10,"win_rate_pct":60,"avg_win_pct":2.5791871204662553,"avg_loss_pct":2.946939771709642,"quarter_kelly":0.03574152885902648,"mean_trade_pct":0.36873636359589623,"sweep_positive":7,"sweep_total":9,"sweep_min":-9.859843649162867,"sweep_max":38.74073310110203},{"symbol":"ETH","timeframe":"1Day","period":"train","stress":true,"bars":365,"missing_full_window":0,"return_pct":-3.772469848754408,"drawdown_pct":19.336413118528583,"n":10,"win_rate_pct":40,"avg_win_pct":2.920551282927728,"avg_loss_pct":2.503657366555282,"quarter_kelly":-0.028588259065535332,"mean_trade_pct":-0.33397390676207805,"sweep_positive":3,"sweep_total":9,"sweep_min":-14.170290708092306,"sweep_max":27.562447744137753}] https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars

[{"symbol":"BTC","timeframe":"1Hour","period":"holdout","stress":false,"bars":5952,"missing_full_window":2,"return_pct":-74.38398328100828,"drawdown_pct":74.4636663006457,"n":172,"win_rate_pct":9.883720930232558,"avg_win_pct":0.4058189272246004,"avg_loss_pct":0.9172219837262525,"quarter_kelly":-0.48448720570627773,"mean_trade_pct":-0.7864563122950635,"sweep_positive":0,"sweep_total":9,"sweep_min":-90.5265002873229,"sweep_max":-50.43259666798574},{"symbol":"BTC","timeframe":"1Hour","period":"holdout","stress":true,"bars":5952,"missing_full_window":2,"return_pct":-92.31550652165679,"drawdown_pct":92.31550652165677,"n":172,"win_rate_pct":1.744186046511628,"avg_win_pct":0.40427940202950796,"avg_loss_pct":1.5174882692633502,"quarter_kelly":-0.9176630433338125,"mean_trade_pct":-1.4839690656942888,"sweep_positive":0,"sweep_total":9,"sweep_min":-98.99852542175864,"sweep_max":-73.60099172279276}] https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars

[{"symbol":"BTC","timeframe":"1Hour","period":"train","stress":false,"bars":8760,"missing_full_window":2,"return_pct":-85.90675871642183,"drawdown_pct":85.92716882859801,"n":273,"win_rate_pct":10.989010989010989,"avg_win_pct":0.4410808081324532,"avg_loss_pct":0.8551318637708203,"quarter_kelly":-0.4039457723358941,"mean_trade_pct":-0.7126909108144165,"sweep_positive":0,"sweep_total":9,"sweep_min":-96.92148113259705,"sweep_max":-58.35791519559176},{"symbol":"BTC","timeframe":"1Hour","period":"train","stress":true,"bars":8760,"missing_full_window":2,"return_pct":-97.91519742964728,"drawdown_pct":97.91519742964729,"n":273,"win_rate_pct":2.197802197802198,"avg_win_pct":0.6049619353493315,"avg_loss_pct":1.4558276326555406,"quarter_kelly":-0.5829026058570719,"mean_trade_pct":-1.410535554237851,"sweep_positive":0,"sweep_total":9,"sweep_min":-99.90897220967648,"sweep_max":-81.2517115571312}] https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars

[{"symbol":"BTC","timeframe":"1Day","period":"holdout","stress":false,"bars":248,"missing_full_window":0,"return_pct":-15.403109672572645,"drawdown_pct":18.224848911072012,"n":5,"win_rate_pct":20,"avg_win_pct":0.9024119673846211,"avg_loss_pct":4.203961395624608,"quarter_kelly":-0.8817166765437672,"mean_trade_pct":-3.1826867230227625,"sweep_positive":2,"sweep_total":9,"sweep_min":-28.30726944845749,"sweep_max":2.900441696660091},{"symbol":"BTC","timeframe":"1Day","period":"holdout","stress":true,"bars":248,"missing_full_window":0,"return_pct":-18.312816189614704,"drawdown_pct":20.20315042674019,"n":5,"win_rate_pct":20,"avg_win_pct":0.19730054953057607,"avg_loss_pct":4.886097891021217,"quarter_kelly":-4.902949094816392,"mean_trade_pct":-3.8694182029108584,"sweep_positive":2,"sweep_total":9,"sweep_min":-31.256039188225998,"sweep_max":0.7620405192060753}] https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars

[{"symbol":"BTC","timeframe":"1Day","period":"train","stress":false,"bars":365,"missing_full_window":0,"return_pct":3.8751021151899843,"drawdown_pct":10.11330469958005,"n":13,"win_rate_pct":69.23076923076923,"avg_win_pct":1.670952262695056,"avg_loss_pct":2.660699175931733,"quarter_kelly":0.05059037935648429,"mean_trade_pct":0.3381364354252747,"sweep_positive":6,"sweep_total":9,"sweep_min":-12.034603919280107,"sweep_max":9.234160525304487},{"symbol":"BTC","timeframe":"1Day","period":"train","stress":true,"bars":365,"missing_full_window":0,"return_pct":-5.160287702671612,"drawdown_pct":11.05122031862461,"n":13,"win_rate_pct":38.46153846153847,"avg_win_pct":1.9744887681720211,"avg_loss_pct":1.8262642364899542,"quarter_kelly":-0.04614310342610918,"mean_trade_pct":-0.3644361577738096,"sweep_positive":0,"sweep_total":9,"sweep_min":-23.52667715017743,"sweep_max":-0.11018304897752386}] https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars

OKX primary04:07:58.571UTC last79646,vol24h3466.36232627BTC,quotevol276998115.25799USDT; Coinbase https://api.exchange.coinbase.com/products/BTC-USD/stats retrieved~04:08: last79626.94,volume24h2408.21022833BTC,volume30day209154.49847981. Rolling24h, two spot venues only; excludes other spot/derivative/OTC books. These volumes are turnover, not available bid liquidity or forced-sale proof; do not sum as global capacity. Source datacollected public REST, no private flow labels. Alpaca fee page retrieved200 again; model25bptaker per-side pending account reconciliation. https://www.okx.com/api/v5/market/ticker?instId=BTC-USDT

Three majors single displayed quotes; fee assumption25bp per side from prior observation7402, accountfees unreconciled; rt_pct=100*(1-bid/ask*.9975^2) excludes further slippage. {"BTC/USD":{"t":"2026-09-07T04:06:11.246086487Z","observed":"2026-09-07T04:06:27.828488+00:00","age_s":16.582402,"ask":79624.342,"bid":79602.61,"ask_usd":79.08608144808001,"bid_usd":79.60261,"spread_bp":2.729688627086652,"rt_pct":0.5265318659556373},"SOL/USD":{"t":"2026-09-07T04:05:11.157177218Z","observed":"2026-09-07T04:06:27.828488+00:00","age_s":76.671311,"ask":104.9,"bid":104.832,"ask_usd":99.898368,"bid_usd":98.9718912,"spread_bp":6.484465889803373,"rt_pct":0.5638749285033384},"ETH/USD":{"t":"2026-09-07T04:05:16.141443084Z","observed":"2026-09-07T04:06:27.828488+00:00","age_s":71.687045,"ask":2497,"bid":2496.2,"ask_usd":82.6854083,"bid_usd":249.04587399999997,"spread_bp":3.20435792678115,"rt_pct":0.5312534541449754}} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-snapshots

OLS BTC hourly logreturn on intercept+mean ETH/SOL logreturn,pre-event Aug1-Sep6 13UTC; other majors may be contaminated controls. Empirical overlapping residual-window percentiles descriptive not significance or probability. {"train_n":877,"intercept_bp":0.29964359703512994,"beta":0.6282615107201582,"r2":0.6979488331389648,"residual_sd_pct":0.21799853665122101,"correlations":{"BTC":{"BTC":1,"ETH":0.83644,"SOL":0.72017},"ETH":{"BTC":0.83644,"ETH":1,"SOL":0.7193},"SOL":{"BTC":0.72017,"ETH":0.7193,"SOL":1}},"2026-09-06T14:00Z":{"hours":14,"abnormal_log_pct":0.274968384200619,"historical_window_percentile":77.89351851851852,"window_n":864},"2026-09-06T20:00Z":{"hours":8,"abnormal_log_pct":-0.2742712334585679,"historical_window_percentile":23.103448275862068,"window_n":870}} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars

Measured Sep7~04:06UTC Python measure.py. Daily2025Jan1-Sep6 completed only; hourlyAug1-Sep7 03UTC complete892 with no duplicates/gaps. Hourbar timestamp is start;14UTC and20UTC windows include preannouncement fractions, not exact causal event. All metrics {"hour_n":892,"hour_dupes":0,"hour_gaps":0,"daily_n":614,"hour_sigma_pct":0.6024768625369359,"hour_abs95_pct":1.1933088920306631,"daily_sigma30_pct":3.242894395915647,"ADR14_pct":5.871372778798519,"ATR14":6.026153476785714,"close":106.529,"sma20":98.51773250000001,"sma50":84.401439,"return7_pct":4.6968058968059,"events":{"onchain":{"pre_close":107.217,"hours":14,"return_pct":-2.11440349944505,"first_hour_pct":-1.406959717209022,"max_up_pct":-0.10912448585579382,"max_down_pct":-2.1517110159769426},"operator":{"pre_close":105.4645,"hours":8,"return_pct":-0.487841880443185,"first_hour_pct":0.22898700510598502,"max_up_pct":1.4986085365217727,"max_down_pct":-0.5257693347050507}}} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars

Measured Sep7~04:06UTC Python measure.py. Daily2025Jan1-Sep6 completed only; hourlyAug1-Sep7 03UTC complete892 with no duplicates/gaps. Hourbar timestamp is start;14UTC and20UTC windows include preannouncement fractions, not exact causal event. All metrics {"hour_n":892,"hour_dupes":0,"hour_gaps":0,"daily_n":614,"hour_sigma_pct":0.5343082284294854,"hour_abs95_pct":0.8720696127725166,"daily_sigma30_pct":3.6796802892391933,"ADR14_pct":3.8646679211068973,"ATR14":95.13881511878574,"close":2515.445,"sma20":2419.6728000000003,"sma50":2102.9789900000005,"return7_pct":4.080667901759427,"events":{"onchain":{"pre_close":2494.275,"hours":14,"return_pct":0.1688466588487536,"first_hour_pct":-0.6169528219622911,"max_up_pct":1.6227160196850665,"max_down_pct":-1.1597122074751276},"operator":{"pre_close":2490.75,"hours":8,"return_pct":0.3106092542406902,"first_hour_pct":0.3025193214895028,"max_up_pct":1.7665361838803628,"max_down_pct":-0.06443842216200535}}} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars

Measured Sep7~04:06UTC Python measure.py. Daily2025Jan1-Sep6 completed only; hourlyAug1-Sep7 03UTC complete892 with no duplicates/gaps. Hourbar timestamp is start;14UTC and20UTC windows include preannouncement fractions, not exact causal event. All metrics {"hour_n":892,"hour_dupes":0,"hour_gaps":0,"daily_n":614,"hour_sigma_pct":0.3964288867384528,"hour_abs95_pct":0.7564669093320111,"daily_sigma30_pct":2.4286742539807205,"ADR14_pct":3.149245494209274,"ATR14":2487.628224981855,"close":80343.4945,"sma20":77255.02965,"sma50":69405.98638999999,"return7_pct":3.434562364601268,"events":{"onchain":{"pre_close":79825.6,"hours":14,"return_pct":-0.3009542051672698,"first_hour_pct":-0.35598792868453133,"max_up_pct":0.9177889048124888,"max_down_pct":-0.6547918211701531},"operator":{"pre_close":79829.665,"hours":8,"return_pct":-0.30603097232086984,"first_hour_pct":0.10930022066357736,"max_up_pct":0.9126500781382552,"max_down_pct":-0.3289992510929318}}} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars

Retrieved Sep7~04:05UTC: tip4050982 timestamp00:39:10UTC, preceding4050981/80 at00:38:10/00:37:10,each tx_count1. Continued blocks after operator20:25 pause statement do not contradict disabled bridge transaction submission; empty/coinbase block production is not restored swaps/pegouts. Exact count1 meaning not independently parsed; no restart claim. Earlier FAQ says DynaFed forthcoming, but May6 2026 roadmap says previous hardfork activated it; FAQ is stale as current operational parameter authority https://blog.blockstream.com/liquid-network-roadmap-0-conf-quantum-readiness-and-bitvm/ . Use architectural distinction only; do not act on historical multisig/timelock constants. https://blockstream.info/liquid/api/blocks

Confirmed Sep7 03:30:05UTC; read full tx via address/txs at04:05. Nine inputs from tracked recipient total3998.49853372BTC, output3998.49849036BTC retained there,0.00001BTC to operator reserve. OP_RETURN asks for bug patch on every node and promises return after verification; encrypted details refer to Blockstream PGP. This is a controller statement, not completed recovery or independently verified patch. Earlier02:20:18 tx3a3eac4a26395b8c2563aaf1eb8b1b77798c81c7d6337f51321827a244a480aa spent15same-address inputs3998.49850762,retained3998.4984855,asked whether reserve destination correct. Other recent dust messages have unrelated inputs and are not attributed to controller. No exploit code/decryption attempted. https://blockstream.info/api/tx/83825b2135dd0abac12c9dfe17f29ab81b3427e1ae864947b0bebce5e47c3c4b

Observed Sep7~04:05UTC. BTC block965783 Sep6 14:28:56UTC,83inputs; matching3996.01834922BTC output to bc1qgslsydz56d0ed6827hdemfmk5w2f6ldyc6wt7p. Liquid tx ce4caece413cd9d444ce7ed9f54e5b328b3da5e4af301aff59a3571f76e988f2 block4050349 Sep6 14:06:10 same amount/target (https://blockstream.info/liquid/api/tx/ce4caece413cd9d444ce7ed9f54e5b328b3da5e4af301aff59a3571f76e988f2). Blockstream address APIs: tracked recipient bc1ql4mfu6aundtkksxklfajs2h3t9nzcd6gyqjlte funded-minus-spent3998.49852128BTC; operator-linked reserve bc1qdlld6antmv4xug242ed83q7k4rqw50cwfns38szx4qu2f4jwaxxsuhwxxr197.47187268BTC. Single addresses, not audited total liabilities/reserves. Recipient balance larger than initial pegout; do not label exact exploit aggregate or exchange sale. Mempool endpoint slow; Blockstream explorer is operator-affiliated, not own fullnode. https://blockstream.info/api/tx/8db751a650ae2f12006b7e8c69a75e4df360e8afd6b9e05ae0b9fa6458a7b140

Original Sep6 21:19:15UTC statement retrieved through api.fxtwitter.com/side_swap/status/2096709838310928674 atSep7~04:04. Operator claims customer4000LBTC14:05UTC, burned/authorized, federation paid3996BTC14:28; attributes source LBTC to Elements bug established by Blockstream, denies own/key compromise. Swaps/pegins/pegouts paused; already paid BTC complete. Claims noncustodial keys unaffected are distinct from asset backing/access. Root cause remains operator attribution, not independent code verification; team offline overnight per statement, no restart time promised. https://x.com/side_swap/status/2096709838310928674