Notes

Frozen notes1343/1348. Columns window,lagdays,slip,return%,DD%,closedN,win%,avgwin%,avgloss%,expectancy%,rawquarterKelly,missing,heldgap,zeroSignal,zeroHeld. Fees25bp/leg; Mondayprior7dsupplygrowth>0 enters next specifiedopen; inverseexits; terminal liquidated. [["development",1,0.001,-27.497167,54.073143,10,40,19.900021,14.789921,-0.913944,0,1,true,1,421],["development",1,0.003,-30.340056,54.256484,10,40,19.420379,15.13108,-1.310496,0,1,true,1,421],["development",2,0.001,-24.44036,54.073143,11,36.363636,19.900021,12.195899,-0.524655,0,1,true,1,418],["development",2,0.003,-27.692917,54.256484,11,36.363636,19.420379,12.547413,-0.922762,0,1,true,1,418],["holdout",1,0.001,-25.364358,28.633704,8,37.5,1.571641,6.479747,-3.460477,0,1,true,0,15],["holdout",1,0.003,-27.714899,30.727946,8,25,1.808979,5.732144,-3.846863,0,1,true,0,15],["holdout",2,0.001,-32.498527,35.455368,9,33.333333,1.571641,6.996883,-4.140708,0,1,true,0,16],["holdout",2,0.003,-34.88537,37.599531,9,22.222222,1.808979,6.33391,-4.524379,0,1,true,0,16]] https://stablecoins.llama.fi/stablecoin/2 ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars

Frozen notes1343/1348. Columns window,lagdays,slip,return%,DD%,closedN,win%,avgwin%,avgloss%,expectancy%,rawquarterKelly,missing,heldgap,zeroSignal,zeroHeld. Fees25bp/leg; Mondayprior7dsupplygrowth>0 enters next specifiedopen; inverseexits; terminal liquidated. [["development",1,0.001,-26.587926,50.507721,10,30,26.259339,12.368147,-0.779901,0,0,false,0,0],["development",1,0.003,-29.466467,50.705295,10,30,25.754311,12.718974,-1.176989,0,0,false,0,0],["development",2,0.001,-24.019262,50.507721,11,27.272727,26.259339,10.475421,-0.45685,0,0,false,0,0],["development",2,0.003,-27.289946,50.705295,11,27.272727,25.754311,10.833804,-0.855227,0,0,false,0,0],["holdout",1,0.001,-26.656436,29.275533,8,37.5,1.94195,6.961452,-3.622676,0,0,false,0,0],["holdout",1,0.003,-28.966285,31.365491,8,25,2.348813,6.127491,-4.008415,0,0,false,0,0],["holdout",2,0.001,-33.059866,35.450297,9,33.333333,1.94195,7.25997,-4.192663,0,0,false,0,0],["holdout",2,0.003,-35.42686,37.607856,9,22.222222,2.348813,6.554681,-4.576127,0,0,false,0,0]] https://stablecoins.llama.fi/stablecoin/2 ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars

Frozen notes1343/1348. Columns window,lagdays,slip,return%,DD%,closedN,win%,avgwin%,avgloss%,expectancy%,rawquarterKelly,missing,heldgap,zeroSignal,zeroHeld. Fees25bp/leg; Mondayprior7dsupplygrowth>0 enters next specifiedopen; inverseexits; terminal liquidated. [["development",1,0.001,-10.205953,27.079677,10,50,4.944403,6.667439,-0.861518,0,1,false,1,147],["development",1,0.003,-13.726843,27.079677,10,50,4.524464,7.041023,-1.25828,0,1,false,1,147],["development",2,0.001,-4.79562,27.079677,11,54.545455,4.258339,5.754154,-0.292794,0,1,false,1,147],["development",2,0.003,-8.893809,27.079677,11,54.545455,3.841139,6.131384,-0.691826,0,1,false,1,147],["holdout",1,0.001,-19.452131,21.423288,8,37.5,1.362891,5.002954,-2.615762,0,1,true,0,1],["holdout",1,0.003,-21.988869,23.592928,8,25,1.62798,4.550021,-3.005521,0,1,true,0,1],["holdout",2,0.001,-25.289303,27.117614,9,33.333333,1.362891,5.379954,-3.132339,0,1,true,0,1],["holdout",2,0.003,-27.931063,29.412939,9,22.222222,1.62798,4.990897,-3.520036,0,1,true,0,1]] https://stablecoins.llama.fi/stablecoin/2 ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars

Frozen notes1343/1348. Columns window,lagdays,slip,return%,DD%,closedN,win%,avgwin%,avgloss%,expectancy%,rawquarterKelly,missing,heldgap,zeroSignal,zeroHeld. Fees25bp/leg; Mondayprior7dsupplygrowth>0 enters next specifiedopen; inverseexits; terminal liquidated. [["development",1,0.001,-9.383031,21.142276,10,40,6.320091,5.49989,-0.771897,0,0,false,0,0],["development",1,0.003,-12.936188,23.319675,10,40,5.89466,5.878135,-1.169017,0,0,false,0,0],["development",2,0.001,-4.689702,20.706438,11,45.454545,5.264558,4.891423,-0.275068,0,0,false,0,0],["development",2,0.003,-8.79245,20.706438,11,45.454545,4.843341,5.272097,-0.674171,0,0,false,0,0],["holdout",1,0.001,-19.366466,20.904367,8,37.5,1.824156,5.23523,-2.58796,0,0,false,0,0],["holdout",1,0.003,-21.905902,23.241699,8,37.5,1.416673,5.614531,-2.97783,0,0,false,0,0],["holdout",2,0.001,-24.759763,26.194799,9,33.333333,1.824156,5.480254,-3.045451,0,0,false,0,0],["holdout",2,0.003,-27.420247,28.661721,9,33.333333,1.416673,5.858577,-3.433494,0,0,false,0,0]] https://stablecoins.llama.fi/stablecoin/2 ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars

Jun30quarter, filedAug5, retrievedSep9. Coinbase distribution cost324.6m vs332.3m yearago. Distributor balances affect expense; institutional stablecoin holdings can earn distribution economics withoutspotcoinbuying. Circle prepurchases gasassets beforetransactions, so eventualnativefeeuse neednotcoincide withissuance. Primaryissuerfinancialreport; no attribution ofSep7 flow. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1876042/000187604226000248/crcl-20260630.htm

ReconstructedSep1 183348170617 toSep8 183407913663 USD,+59,743,046. USDC+815,676,214 over sameproviderdates; combined+875,419,260. AggregateUSDT didnotshrink inthiswindow, so simpleone-for-oneUSDTsubstitutioncannot explainallUSDCgrowth; intraweek migrations andotherstablecoins/fiatbalances remainpossible. No attribution tobuying. https://stablecoins.llama.fi/stablecoin/1

Global USDC Sep1 73,562,651,110;Sep7 74,706,432,903;Sep8 74,378,327,324;7d+815,676,214.126chains withmatchedSep1/Sep8rows sumdelta840,693,381,25,017,167 aboveglobaldelta. Topchanges USD:SOL+601551822,Hyperliquid+273620272,Starknet-140907410,Base-78871000,Arbitrum+77340118,Aptos+76068839,ETH+55364471. Chainselection/bridgedaccounting unreconciled; not netspotinflow. Provider reconstruction, no vintage timestamps; cannot combine withissuerSep7net. Localresearch/reconcile.json. https://stablecoins.llama.fi/stablecoin/2

ObservedSep9 04UTC. Static fb-count-target/formatNumber source numeric value74,470,791,659.782865762; footnote circulation last updatedSep8. Circletransparency remainsSep7 74.28bn; do not treat different cutoff/precision as contradiction or derive exactdailyissuance withoutmatched series. https://www.usdc.com/

Fresh retrieval stillSep7,same publication as02UTC. Billions: circulation74.28; issue/redeem7d8.8/7.86,30d36.59/34.37,365d333.52/331.64. Python: net7 .94,net30 2.22,net365 1.88; gross7 16.66,redemptions89.3182%ofissues,net5.64226%ofgross. Disjoint preceding23dnet1.28bn/55.6522mday vs latest7d134.2857mday; prior335dnet-.34bn/-1.01493mday. Consistentrollingdefinitions assumed; rounded inputs, rates descriptive not forecast. https://www.circle.com/transparency

Agreement datedSep4, filed/announcedSep8, observedSep9 04UTC. Base consideration400mUSD paid in CRCL shares using closing20tradingdayVWAP, subject adjustments; additional25m incentiveRSUs. Outside date9months, regulatory extensions up to15months. Stock consideration is not400mUSDCmint orBTCspotpurchase. Primary issuer legal summary; supersedes unknownconsideration on pressrelease only. No precise closingdate;2027expectation retained. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1876042/000187604226000267/crcl-20260904.htm

RetrievedSep9 04:04UTC:2921daily supply records fromSep11 2018 toSep9 2026; latest74,502,816,708.65785 circulating,1,192,176,384.871993 unreleased. Current reconstruction, no historical first-publication times. Provider closest to calculation, not original issuer; latest day excluded from completed-day tests. https://stablecoins.llama.fi/stablecoin/2

Q2June30 filing observedSep9: excludes allowed-not-issued,access-denied,pendingburn tokens; includes889.3m corporate-heldUSDC versus588.3m Jun2025; accessdenied123.2m vs166.6m. Primary issuer filing; corporate inventory can support expenses, so circulation is not synonymous with external crypto investment. Quarter-end balances cannot explain Sep7 weekly change. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1876042/000187604226000248/crcl-20260630.htm

WorkingpaperJun10 2026, observedSep9:593million eventlogs,141million Ethereumtransactions,3USDstablecoins; nearly60% transfer events embedded in complextransactions. Authors' own archive-node study, Ethereum-specific; doesnot classify tonight's global flows. Supports transaction-level tracing rather than treating every transfer as payment. https://www.bis.org/publ/work1359.pdf

Methodology retrieved Sep9 04UTC: probabilistic address labels; largest transfer per transaction; unlabeled filters at1000transactions/$10m over30days; adjusted categories still include exchanges,lending,mint/burn. Therefore adjusted doesnotmean merchantpayments or BTCbuying; offchain trading not observed. Primary methodology from dashboard creators; commercial stablecoin interests. https://www.visaonchainanalytics.com/transactions

Current undated technical documentation retrieved Sep9 04UTC: native transfers burn on source and mint on destination. A destination mint alone is not net global issuance; chain balances can migrate while total supply is unchanged. Documentation describes mechanism, no destination-purpose attribution. https://developers.circle.com/cctp

Observed Sep9 04UTC. TargetCEO reports around25bn annualized payments,morethan60% stablecoins, existingCirclepartner/CPNdesignpartner since2025; current contracts, settlement routes and integration continue. Expected2027 close. Primary participant, same transaction interests as acquirer, not independent evidence of customer adoption or netnew USDC. https://tazapay.com/blog/circle-acquires-tazapay

Observed Sep9 04UTC. Acquirer says signed definitive agreement; expected2027 close subject approvals. >$25bn annualized payment volume,approximately60% already stablecoins,60+partners,100+markets. Participant/promotional primary; no incremental USDC balance, token mix, price or consideration quantified on this page; cannot assign this activity to Sep7 net issuance. https://www.circle.com/pressroom/circle-expands-global-payments-infrastructure-with-agreement-to-acquire-singapore-based-cross-border-payments-platform-tazapay

fund=crypto RESEARCH ONLY eligible=0; one-venue displayed quotes, not global depth; source=https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-snapshots BTC t=2026-09-09T02:15:09.329904624Z age=10.0 fresh=1 b=78784.055 a=78802 bd=78.07 ad=78.28 spread_bp=2.277 loss_pct=0.5220 recovery_pct=0.5248 ETH t=2026-09-09T02:13:32.504698973Z age=106.8 fresh=1 b=2494.4 a=2495.15 bd=82.58 ad=83.59 spread_bp=3.006 loss_pct=0.5293 recovery_pct=0.5321 SOL t=2026-09-09T02:14:07.508337859Z age=71.8 fresh=1 b=103.6 a=103.73 bd=296.50 ad=98.28 spread_bp=12.540 loss_pct=0.6241 recovery_pct=0.6280 USDC t=2026-09-09T00:12:48.996942215Z age=7350.4 fresh=0 b=0.9995 a=1.00001 bd=9995000.00 ad=10000100.00 spread_bp=5.101 loss_pct=0.5501 recovery_pct=0.5532 USDG t=2026-09-08T11:48:27.749222185Z age=52011.6 fresh=0 b=0.99999 a=1.00001 bd=9999900.00 ad=10000100.00 spread_bp=0.200 loss_pct=0.5014 recovery_pct=0.5039 XRP t=2026-09-09T02:15:08.925016696Z age=10.4 fresh=1 b=1.41375 a=1.419 bd=5860.04 ad=5931.28 spread_bp=37.066 loss_pct=0.8675 recovery_pct=0.8751 UNI t=2026-09-09T02:15:02.07492377Z age=17.3 fresh=1 b=6.77166 a=6.7832 bd=4791.90 ad=4805.22 spread_bp=17.027 loss_pct=0.6687 recovery_pct=0.6732 LTC t=2026-09-09T02:13:41.928858872Z age=97.4 fresh=1 b=53.93 a=54.2344 bd=3683.37 ad=3685.77 spread_bp=56.285 loss_pct=1.0578 recovery_pct=1.0691 HYPE t=2026-09-09T02:14:30.971399988Z age=48.4 fresh=1 b=85.24 a=85.622 bd=66180.34 ad=66661.95 spread_bp=44.714 loss_pct=0.9433 recovery_pct=0.9523 LINK t=2026-09-09T02:14:04.924464865Z age=74.4 fresh=1 b=12.46 a=12.48 bd=14535.46 ad=14493.02 spread_bp=16.038 loss_pct=0.6588 recovery_pct=0.6632 fresh_valid=8/10; funding and all trading rules remain independently gated; no orders https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-snapshots

fund=crypto RESEARCH ONLY eligible=0; failed funding rule remains REJECT Sources https://www.okx.com/api/v5/public/time ; https://www.okx.com/api/v5/public/funding-rate ; https://www.okx.com/api/v5/public/open-interest {"clock_offset_s": 0.0967, "uncertainty_s": 0.1652, "rtt_s": 0.3205} {"symbol":"BTC","funding_ts":"1788920109614","oi_ts":"1788920164779","funding_age":55.334,"oi_age":0.161,"forecast_bp":0.372151,"settled_bp":0.480256,"oi_coin":"27667.4382000000913","oi_usd":"2178119072.2950071875925","fresh":true} {"symbol":"ETH","funding_ts":"1788920109658","oi_ts":"1788920164783","funding_age":55.279,"oi_age":0.159,"forecast_bp":0.925282,"settled_bp":0.7966,"oi_coin":"612636.97400000233","oi_usd":"1526930267.6278658072687","fresh":true} {"symbol":"SOL","funding_ts":"1788920110617","oi_ts":"1788920164774","funding_age":54.328,"oi_age":0.164,"forecast_bp":-0.707939,"settled_bp":-0.939,"oi_coin":"2796529.4200000011","oi_usd":"289552656.146800113894","fresh":true} coverage=6/6 fresh; eligible=0 fund=crypto RESEARCH ONLY eligible=0 source=https://www.circle.com/transparency observed=2026-09-09T02:16:05.047890+00:00 issuer_date=Sep 07, 2026 USDC USD billions; raw issuer data-point attributes, rounded publication precision; net arithmetic not exchange inflow {"net-30": 2.22, "net-365": 1.88, "net-7": 0.94, "usdc-in-circulation": 74.28, "usdc-issued-30": 36.59, "usdc-issued-365": 333.52, "usdc-issued-7": 8.8, "usdc-redeemed-30": 34.37, "usdc-redeemed-365": 331.64, "usdc-redeemed-7": 7.86} No automatic trade; supply growth may fund payments rather than BTC/ETH/SOL purchases. https://www.okx.com/api/v5/public/funding-rate ; https://www.circle.com/transparency

A news scan found the following data: this is a risk report for a three-day block, considering dependence between major cryptocurrencies. The report is based on 60 daily log returns, divided into 58 unique blocks, with 10,000 paths. Correlation, which measures how much two things move together, between Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana is as follows: Bitcoin and Ethereum have a correlation of 0.8793342280482204, Bitcoin and Solana have a correlation of 0.8246320849602077, and Ethereum and Solana have a correlation of 0.8173067669782347. Annual volatility, which is a measure of how much prices swing, is 38.92478318307734 percent for Bitcoin, 57.043932123260056 percent for Ethereum, and 51.92452657334513 percent for Solana. The results show the mean percentage return, which is the average return, and the probability of loss, which is the chance of losing money. For Bitcoin, the mean percentage return is 0.7237917394098516 percent, the probability of loss is 0.4984, the fifth percentile return, which is the return that is worse than 95 percent of the time, is -3.369728248285564 percent, and the 95th percentile loss at capital, which is the loss that is worse than 5 percent of the time, is 7.16901260502133 percent. For Ethereum, the mean percentage return is 1.3612083718810861 percent, the probability of loss is 0.4694, the fifth percentile return is -3.900189981371327 percent, and the 95th percentile loss at capital is 8.297556680617964 percent. For Solana, the mean percentage return is 1.28556368670356 percent, the probability of loss is 0.4779, the fifth percentile return is -5.8539242301266725 percent, and the 95th percentile loss at capital is 12.454077451488743 percent. The seed for this simulation is Seed2026090902, and it is based on 10,000 draws from 58 overlapping joint three-day blocks of 60 daily log returns, with a terminal fee adjustment of 0.9975 squared, and no stops, slippage, or 15-minute fills. The Monte Carlo draws, which are a type of simulation, are not independent evidence. The exact fifth percentile returns are -3.2142148 percent for Bitcoin, -3.6686732 percent for Ethereum, and -5.1035890 percent for Solana, and the exact loss probabilities are 0.5 for Bitcoin, 0.465517 for Ethereum, and 0.482759 for Solana. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars

Freeze note1292. Columns window,fast,slip,return%,DD%,closedN,win%,avgwin%,avgloss%,expectancy%,rawquarterKelly,openN,missing,heldgapinvalid,zerovolume. Fees25bp eachleg; slip30/60bp. Starts flat; next adjacent open, prior SMAfast>SMA100 long; exit inverse. 2025development,2026Jan1–Sep8 reused holdout diagnostic. [["holdout",20,0.003,-45.3152,68.055501,44,20.454545,7.829663,3.438493,-1.133643,0,0,30,true,69],["holdout",20,0.006,-58.003754,75.171438,44,13.636364,10.932409,3.725359,-1.726573,0,0,30,true,69],["development",30,0.003,-35.19596,59.952277,53,28.301887,8.896108,4.195916,-0.490626,0,0,30,true,896],["development",30,0.006,-52.848714,69.520553,53,26.415094,8.843543,4.652357,-1.087403,0,0,30,true,896]] https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars

A freeze note, numbered 1292, explains the columns in a cost matrix for XRP/USD trading. The columns include the window size, the speed of the moving average, the slippage, the return percentage, the maximum drawdown percentage, the number of closed trades, the win percentage, the average win percentage, the average loss percentage, the expectancy percentage, the raw quarter Kelly criterion, the number of open trades, missing values, and invalid held gap and zero volume trades. The fees are 25 basis points for each leg of the trade, and the slippage is 30 or 60 basis points. The strategy starts with no position and enters a long position when the fast simple moving average is greater than the 100-period simple moving average, and exits when the inverse condition is met. The data is from the development period of 2025 and the holdout diagnostic period from January 1, 2026, to September 8, 2026. The results are as follows: development with 10 and 20 as parameters, with return percentages and other metrics calculated. The results are presented in a table with the following rows: development with parameters 10 and 0.003, development with parameters 10 and 0.006, development with parameters 20 and 0.003, and development with parameters 20 and 0.006, with their respective metrics, including return percentages of -42.132686, -61.978801, -49.97186, and -65.513159, and win percentages of 21.428571, 18.571429, 24.193548, and 22.580645. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars

Freeze note1292. Columns window,fast,slip,return%,DD%,closedN,win%,avgwin%,avgloss%,expectancy%,rawquarterKelly,openN,missing,heldgapinvalid,zerovolume. Fees25bp eachleg; slip30/60bp. Starts flat; next adjacent open, prior SMAfast>SMA100 long; exit inverse. 2025development,2026Jan1–Sep8 reused holdout diagnostic. [["holdout",20,0.003,-12.576159,16.847594,1,0,null,11.8314,-11.8314,0,1,0,false,0],["holdout",20,0.006,-13.35829,17.42912,1,0,null,12.360334,-12.360334,0,1,0,false,0],["development",30,0.003,3.402488,35.462752,3,66.666667,8.98197,12.523112,1.81361,0.050479,0,0,false,0],["development",30,0.006,1.557856,36.098386,3,66.666667,8.328527,13.047908,1.203049,0.036112,0,0,false,0]] https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars

A freeze note, number 1292, has columns for a window, fast and slow moving averages, slip, return percentage, drawdown percentage, closed trades, win percentage, average win, average loss, expectancy percentage, a raw quarter Kelly measure, open trades, missing trades, and held gap invalid trades, with zero volume trades. There are fees of 25 basis points for each trade leg and a slip of 30 or 60 basis points. The strategy starts flat and goes long when the fast simple moving average is greater than the 100-day simple moving average, and exits when the inverse condition is met. The data is from 2025 development and 2026 January 1 to September 8, which is a reused holdout diagnostic period. The data includes the following rows: development with 10 and 20 periods, different return and drawdown percentages, and other metrics. The specific data points are: development with 10 periods, 0.003, 2.507187, 46.591486, 4, 50, 13.774939, 10.344856, 1.715041, 0.031126, 0, 0, false, 0, and development with 10 periods, 0.006, 0.076251, 46.910984, 4, 50, 13.092823, 10.882684, 1.10507, 0.021101, 0, 0, false, 0, and development with 20 periods, 0.003, 35.301748, 34.780223, 3, 66.666667, 19.85633, 5.663191, 11.349823, 0.142899, 0, 0, false, 0, and development with 20 periods, 0.006, 32.888055, 34.780223, 3, 66.666667, 19.137834, 6.229025, 10.682215, 0.139543, 0, 0, false, 0. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars